Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.     

Finnish stakeholder engagement in the restoration of a radioactively contaminated food supply chain

An expert group was established in 2001 representing various organisations and authorities responsible for primary production, food processing, the distribution and consumption of foodstuffs, food safety and availability, catering and extension services, nature conservation, research into environmental impacts, and the media. The aim was to strengthen networking and improve the stakeholder response to accidental radioactive contamination of rural areas through participation in the FARMING network project. A hypothetical contamination of a large milk-producing area provided a suitable framework for evaluation of actions ensuring clean feeding of dairy cows during grazing. The following year the group received a compilation of rural countermeasures and waste disposal methods, described by the STRATEGY project. The robust, uncomplicated approach of the evaluation meetings was fruitful and efficient, and the multidisciplinary group was capable of taking shared views on various measures after updating their knowledge together. High priority was given to measurements of radioactivity and the provision of information and advice to a wider audience.     

Modelling remediation options for urban contamination situations

The impact on a population from an event resulting in dispersal and deposition of radionuclides in an urban area could be significant, in terms of both the number of people affected and the economic costs of recovery. The use of computer models for assessment of urban contamination situations and remedial options enables the evaluation of a variety of situations or alternative recovery strategies in contexts of preparedness or decision-making. At present a number of models and modelling approaches are available for different purposes. This paper summarizes the available modelling approaches, approaches for modelling countermeasure effectiveness, and current sources of information on parameters related to countermeasure effectiveness. Countermeasure information must be applied with careful thought as to its applicability for the specific situation being modelled. Much of the current information base comes from the Chernobyl experience and would not be applicable for all types of situations.     

Northern conditions influencing the selection of countermeasures after radioactive fallout in Finland

The paper summarizes an evaluation of practicability of rural countermeasures after radioactive fallout in northern conditions carried out by a Finnish group of experts in the FARMING Network project. Snow and soil frost limit the selection of crops, and the short growing season allows mostly one harvest yearly. Cold climate restricts fruit production to apples and berries. Due to the long indoor feeding period, conserved and stored clean feed is available almost all year round. The use of fertilisers and lime on poor and acidic soils leads to high potassium and calcium intake of cows increasing the incidence of milk fever. The surface soil layer is thin and ploughing deeper than 20 cm is problematic due to stony and compacted soils. It also increases soil acidity and decreases fertility. Cultivation of peatlands limits the selection of plants and increases long-term radiocaesium contamination of crops. Frost and snow delay ploughing and spreading of waste milk on arable land, but removal of snow is a decontamination option. Long distances and high transport costs complicate carrying out the countermeasures. The Finnish stakeholder group considered it vital to be prepared for implementation of practicable measures for the safety of food.     

Mesoscale modelling of radioactive contamination formation in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident

This work is devoted to the reconstruction of time-dependent radioactive contamination fields in the territory of Ukraine in the initial period of the Chernobyl accident using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The modelling results were compared with available 137Cs air and ground contamination measurement data. The 137Cs atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The detailed scenario of the release from the accidental unit of the Chernobyl nuclear plant has been built (including time-dependent radioactivity release intensity and time-varied height of the release). The calculations have enabled to explain the main features of spatial and temporal variations of radioactive contamination fields over the territory of Ukraine on the regional scale, including the formation of the major large-scale spots of radioactive contamination caused by dry and wet deposition.     

Residents'''' Willingness to Pay for Improving Air Quality in Jinan, China

Along with the progress of urbanization and environmental deterioration, residents' desire for improved air quality is increasing. In order to quantify an individual's willingness-to-pay (WTP) for improved air quality in Jinan of eastern China, a contingent valuation method (CVM) was employed. A sample of 1,500 residents was chosen on the basis of multistage sampling methods with face-to-face interviews by using a series of hypothetical, open-ended scenario questions which were designed to elicit the respondents' WTP. Results showed that 59.7% of respondents were able to express their WTP and the mean WTP is 100 Chinese Yuan (CNY) per person per year. A probit model on the probability of a positive WTP and a regression model were developed to find the relationship between endogenous variables and WTP. Most parameters in the econometric analysis had the expected sign. Annual household income and expenditure on treating respiratory diseases significantly influence WTP. The rates of positive WTP and the monetary amount are larger for men than for women. Results also showed that people who lived in more polluted areas were willing to pay more for clean air. Unlike developed countries, clean air may only be considered as a public good in China in that more than 40% of respondents had no incentive to bear the costs of attempting to achieve better air quality, which indicates the relatively low environmental consciousness.     

The STRATEGY project: decision tools to aid sustainable restoration and long-term management of contaminated agricultural ecosystems

The STRATEGY project (Sustainable Restoration and Long-Term Management of Contaminated Rural, Urban and Industrial Ecosystems) aimed to provide a holistic decision framework for the selection of optimal restoration strategies for the long-term sustainable management of contaminated areas in Western Europe. A critical evaluation was carried out of countermeasures and waste disposal options, from which compendia of state-of-the-art restoration methods were compiled. A decision support system capable of optimising spatially varying restoration strategies, that considered the level of averted dose, costs (including those of waste disposal) and environmental side effects was developed. Appropriate methods of estimating indirect costs associated with side effects and of communicating with stakeholders were identified. The importance of stakeholder consultation at a local level and of ensuring that any response is site and scenario specific were emphasised. A value matrix approach was suggested as a method of addressing social and ethical issues within the decision-making process, and was designed to be compatible with both the countermeasure compendia and the decision support system. The applicability and usefulness of STRATEGY outputs for food production systems in the medium to long term is assessed.     

Residents' Willingness to Pay for Improving Air Quality in Jinan,China

Abstract

Along with the progress of urbanization and environmental deterioration, residents' desire for improved air quality is increasing. In order to quantify an individual's willingness-to-pay (WTP) for improved air quality in Jinan of eastern China, a contingent valuation method (CVM) was employed. A sample of 1,500 residents was chosen on the basis of multistage sampling methods with face-to-face interviews by using a series of hypothetical, open-ended scenario questions which were designed to elicit the respondents' WTP. Results showed that 59.7% of respondents were able to express their WTP and the mean WTP is 100 Chinese Yuan (CNY) per person per year. A probit model on the probability of a positive WTP and a regression model were developed to find the relationship between endogenous variables and WTP. Most parameters in the econometric analysis had the expected sign. Annual household income and expenditure on treating respiratory diseases significantly influence WTP. The rates of positive WTP and the monetary amount are larger for men than for women. Results also showed that people who lived in more polluted areas were willing to pay more for clean air. Unlike developed countries, clean air may only be considered as a public good in China in that more than 40% of respondents had no incentive to bear the costs of attempting to achieve better air quality, which indicates the relatively low environmental consciousness.     

Test of existing mathematical models for atmospheric resuspension of radionuclides

Atmospheric resuspension of radionuclides can be a secondary source of contamination after a release has stopped, as well as a source of contamination for people and areas not exposed to the original release. A test scenario based on measurements collected after the Chernobyl accident was used to evaluate existing mathematical models for contaminant resuspension from soil, to examine resuspension processes on both local and regional scales, and to investigate the importance of seasonal variations of these processes. Model predictions from 15 participants were compared with measured air concentrations and resuspension factors to investigate and explain the discrepancies both among model predictions and between model predictions and observations and thus to evaluate the predictive capabilities and drawbacks of commonly used generic resuspension models. The empirical models tested can give predictions within an order of magnitude of observations or better if adequately calibrated for site-specific conditions, but they do not describe the process-level events or account for spatial heterogeneity or temporal variations.     

长江三角洲城郊畜禽粪便的污染负荷及其防治对策

长江三角洲是我国经济最发达的地区之一，随着经济的高速发展，区内地表水环境迅速趋于恶化。研究发现，畜禽粪便流失污染地表水的现象已成为本区郊县(区)最大的有机污染源和最引入注目的非点源污染问题之一。以地处长江三角洲地区的上海、苏锡常、杭嘉湖和宁绍地区为例，结合当地畜禽饲养量，采用各类畜禽的粪便及其污染物的排泄系数，估算了畜禽粪便的污染负荷当量。从现行的政策法规、饲养基地的布局和利用情况等方面分析了近年来本区畜禽污染严重的原因。提出要加强畜禽粪便的综合治理力度，制订畜牧业污染防治法，完善和配套畜禽粪便的综合治理设施，实现畜禽粪便的资源化、减量化、无害化和生态化，形成布局合理、设施先进、清洁生产、达标排放的长江三角洲畜牧业生产新格局。     

Reconstruction of (131)I radioactive contamination in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident using atmospheric transport modelling

The evaluation of (131)I air and ground contamination field formation in the territory of Ukraine was made using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The (131)I atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The airborne (131)I concentration and ground deposition fields were calculated as the database for subsequent thyroid dose reconstruction for inhabitants of radioactive contaminated regions. The small-scale deposition field variability is assessed using data of (137)Cs detailed measurements in the territory of Ukraine. The obtained results are compared with available data of radioiodine daily deposition measurements made at the network of meteorological stations in Ukraine and data of the assessments of (131)I soil contamination obtained from the (129)I measurements.     

Reducing external costs of nitrogen pollution by relocation of pig production between regions in the European Union

This paper tests the hypothesis that relocation of pig production within the EU27 can reduce the external costs of nitrogen (N) pollution. The external cost of pollution by ammonia and nitrate from agriculture in the European Union (EU27) in 2008 was estimated at 61–215 billion € (0.5 to 1.8% of the GDP). Per capita it ranged from more than 1000 € in north-west EU27 to 50 € in Romania. The average contribution of pig production was 15%. Using provincial data (224 NUTS2 regions in EU27), the potential reduction of external N cost by relocation of pig production was estimated at 14 billion € (10% of the total). Regions most eligible for decreasing the pig stock were in western Germany, Flemish region, Denmark, the Netherlands and Bretagne, while Romania is most eligible for increasing pig production. Relocating 20 million pigs (13% of the total EU stock) decreased average external costs per capita from 900 to 785 € in the 13 NUTS2 regions where pigs were removed and increased from 69 to 107 € in 11 regions receiving pigs. A second alternative configuration of pig production was targeted at reducing exceedance of critical N deposition and closing regional nutrient cycles. This configuration relocates pigs within Germany and France, for example from Bretagne to Northern France and from Weser-Ems to Oberbayern. However, total external cost increases due to an increase of health impacts, unless when combined with implementation of best N management practices. Relocation of the pig industry in the EU27 will meet many socio-economic barriers and realisation requires new policy incentives.     

Variations of anthropogenic CO2 in urban area deduced by radiocarbon concentration in modern tree rings

Radiocarbon concentration in the atmosphere is significantly lower in areas where man-made emissions of carbon dioxide occur. This phenomenon is known as Suess effect, and is caused by the contamination of clean air with non-radioactive carbon from fossil fuel combustion. The effect is more strongly observed in industrial and densely populated urban areas. Measurements of carbon isotope concentrations in a study area can be compared to those from areas of clear air in order to estimate the amount of carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuel combustion by using a simple mathematical model. This can be calculated using the simple mathematical model. The result of the mathematical model followed in this study suggests that the use of annual rings of trees to obtain the secular variations of 14C concentration of atmospheric CO2 can be useful and efficient for environmental monitoring and modeling of the carbon distribution in local scale.     

Assessment of the consequences of the radioactive contamination of aquatic media and biota for the Chernobyl NPP cooling pond: model testing using Chernobyl data

The ‘Cooling Pond’ scenario was designed to test models for radioactive contamination of aquatic ecosystems, based on data from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant cooling pond, which was heavily contaminated in 1986 as a result of the reactor accident. The calculation tasks include (a) reconstruction of the dynamics of radionuclide transfer and bioaccumulation in aquatic media and biota following the accident; (b) assessment of doses to aquatic biota; and (c) assessment of potential doses and radiation risks to humans from consumption of contaminated fish. Calculations for the Scenario were performed by 19 participants using 6 different models: LAKECO-B (Netherlands); LAKEPOND (Romania); POSOD (USA); WATER, GIDRO and ECOMOD-W (Russia). For all endpoints, model predictions were compared with the test data, which were derived from the results of direct measurements and independent dose estimates based on measurements. Most of the models gave satisfactory agreement for some portions of the test data, although very few participants obtained good agreement with all criteria for model testing. The greatest level of difficulty was with the prediction of non-equilibrium radioecological processes in the first year after the accident (1986). The calculations 5 for this scenario gave modellers a unique opportunity to test their models using an independent data base and to analyse the advantages and weaknesses of different model approaches. The use of post-Chernobyl data in such a scenario is also recommended for use in training students in the field of radioecology and environmental protection.     

Depleted uranium residual radiological risk assessment for Kosovo sites

During the recent conflict in Yugoslavia, depleted uranium rounds were employed and were left in the battlefield. Health concern is related to the risk arising from contamination of areas in Kosovo with depleted uranium penetrators and dust. Although chemical toxicity is the most significant health risk related to uranium, radiation exposure has been allegedly related to cancers among veterans of the Balkan conflict. Uranium munitions are considered to be a source of radiological contamination of the environment. Based on measurements and estimates from the recent Balkan Task Force UNEP mission in Kosovo, we have estimated effective doses to resident populations using a well-established food-web mathematical model (RESRAD code). The UNEP mission did not find any evidence of widespread contamination in Kosovo. Rather than the actual measurements, we elected to use a desk assessment scenario (Reference Case) proposed by the UNEP group as the source term for computer simulations. Specific applications to two Kosovo sites (Planeja village and Vranovac hill) are described. Results of the simulations suggest that radiation doses from water-independent pathways are negligible (annual doses below 30 microSv). A small radiological risk is expected from contamination of the groundwater in conditions of effective leaching and low distribution coefficient of uranium metal. Under the assumptions of the Reference Case, significant radiological doses (>1 mSv/year) might be achieved after many years from the conflict through water-dependent pathways. Even in this worst-case scenario, DU radiological risk would be far overshadowed by its chemical toxicity.     

A validation study for the transport of 134Cs to strawberry

The paper presents results on model validation by field experiment for transport of 134Cs to strawberry. The transfer of 134Cs to herbaceous plants was investigated following a wet deposition after an acute release during 2000. Leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-fruit and direct fruit pathways were examined. The available meteorological and local soil information together with the experimental data were taken into account by the model RUVFRU. The processes are described by first order differential equations. In the case of foliar contamination scenarios measured and calculated results for fruit are in good agreement. However, the results of soil contamination scenarios provide large differences of up to three orders of magnitude between model predictions and experimental values for either fruit or other parts of the plant. The bias could be explained by the underestimation of the interception of the plant at the beginning of the season, in the soil contamination scenario. The model output permits prompt assessment of emergency situations and provides aid making decisions concerning mitigation of the consequences of the accident.     

Carbon-14 transfer into rice plants from a continuous atmospheric source: observations and model predictions

Carbon-14 ((14)C) is one of the most important radionuclides from the perspective of dose estimation due to the nuclear fuel cycle. Ten years of monitoring data on (14)C in airborne emissions, in atmospheric CO(2) and in rice grain collected around the Tokai reprocessing plant (TRP) showed an insignificant radiological effect of the TRP-derived (14)C on the public, but suggested a minor contribution of the TRP-derived (14)C to atmospheric (14)C concentrations, and an influence on (14)C concentrations in rice grain at harvest. This paper also summarizes a modelling exercise (the so-called rice scenario of the IAEA's EMRAS program) in which (14)C concentrations in air and rice predicted with various models using information on (14)C discharge rates, meteorological conditions and so on were compared with observed concentrations. The modelling results showed that simple Gaussian plume models with different assumptions predict monthly averaged (14)C concentrations in air well, even for near-field receptors, and also that specific activity and dynamic models were equally good for the prediction of inter-annual changes in (14)C concentrations in rice grain. The scenario, however, offered little opportunity for comparing the predictive capabilities of these two types of models because the scenario involved a near-chronic release to the atmosphere. A scenario based on an episodic release and short-term, time-dependent observations is needed to establish the overall confidence in the predictions of environmental (14)C models.     

Variations of anthropogenic CO2 in urban area deduced by radiocarbon concentration in modern tree rings

Radiocarbon concentration in the atmosphere is significantly lower in areas where man-made emissions of carbon dioxide occur. This phenomenon is known as Suess effect, and is caused by the contamination of clean air with non-radioactive carbon from fossil fuel combustion. The effect is more strongly observed in industrial and densely populated urban areas. Measurements of carbon isotope concentrations in a study area can be compared to those from areas of clear air in order to estimate the amount of carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuel combustion by using a simple mathematical model. This can be calculated using the simple mathematical model. The result of the mathematical model followed in this study suggests that the use of annual rings of trees to obtain the secular variations of ¹⁴C concentration of atmospheric CO₂ can be useful and efficient for environmental monitoring and modeling of the carbon distribution in local scale.     

Evaluation of food industry by-products as feed in semi-arid dairy farming systems: the case of Jordan

Dairy feeding systems in many semi-arid countries are based on imported concentrates and forages. This has economic and ecological implications given the increase in global feed prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use change. This paper aims to explore alternative dairy feeding systems under semi-arid conditions, using Jordan as an example. The feedings systems under investigation vary in their share of food industry by-products (replacing concentrates in the diet) and are compared against the current concentrate-based feeding systems. The systems are evaluated against three criteria: their nutritional value, their impact on the cost of milk production, and their GHG mitigation potential. Feed samples from eleven food industry by-products and ten conventional feeds were collected from food factories and from three typical dairy farms, representing the typical large-, medium- and small-scale farm types, respectively. Feed samples were analysed for their chemical composition and metabolisable energy contents. In addition, economic and production farm data were collected and entered into a model for GHGs calculation and economic evaluation. The results suggest that inclusion of locally available food industry by-products in the rations of milk cows in semi-arid production systems can be instrumental in reducing production costs and mitigating GHG emissions. Cost of milk production in the model farms can be lowered by up to 14 %; mitigation of CO₂ eq. emission ranged between 70 and 290 g CO₂ eq./kg milk. The degree to which these benefits can be reaped is positively related to the level of inclusion of by-product feeds in lactating cows’ diets.