Threshold effects of renewable energy consumption on economic growth under energy transformation

China proposed that non-fossil energy consumption account for 20% in total energy consumption. EU increased the target of renewable energy consumption share from 27% to 35% in 2030.Energy transformation and increasing renewable energy consumption are important energy strategies for all countries at present. Then, is the impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth positive or negative? Are there any differences in the direction or magnitude of the impact among countries or regions, and what are the determinants behind them? We apply panel threshold effect model to test threshold effects of renewable energy consumption on economic growth of EU. Empirical result shows: first, the impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth is negative. Second, renewable energy consumption has significant threshold effects on economic growth. Third, now, energy consumption intensity and GDP per capita of most EU members are in the appropriate threshold regimes. In contrast, more and more EU members are in the high-subsidy group. Fourth, the average annual growth rates of renewable energy consumption showed no significant difference between high-subsidy and lowsubsidy countries from 1990 to 2014. Therefore, subsidy with high economic cost is not the onlyeffective means to increase renewable energy consumption.     

Analysis of material stock accumulation in China’s infrastructure and its regional disparity

Materials stocked in infrastructure provide necessary personal and economic services, and are also closely linked with massive resource extraction, energy consumption and waste generation. To support policy deliberations toward regional harmony and sustainable development, this paper examines the temporal change during 1978–2008 and spatial patterns of ten types of materials stocked in four major infrastructures (residential buildings, roads, railways, and water pipelines) in 31 provinces in China, and diagnoses regional disparity and driving factors by Theil index and multivariable regression based on panel data. It was found that the total material stock has boomed to 42.5 billion tons in 2008, with its per capita level increased by nine times over that in 1978. Over 90 % of materials are concentrated in residential buildings and roads, and are spatially inclined to decrease from coastal regions to inland areas. Since China has shifted its strategy from an inclined to harmonious regional development, the overall inequality of per capita material stock has been changing toward equality with its scale contributed mainly by inter-regional inequality, and downward trend affected dominantly by intra-regional inequality. To balance the growth speed across regions meanwhile, to develop economy and attract foreign investment in each region, would be a promising route towards reducing regional inequality. Moreover, the enhancement of governmental performance and construction of each sector’s share would also be effective for decreasing inter-regional gaps.     

Will Limits of the Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers?

The current world population is 6 billion people. Even if we adopted a worldwide policy resulting in only 2.1 children born per couple, more than 60 years would pass before the world population stabilized at approximately 12 billion. The reason stabilization would take more than 60 years is the population momentum – the young age distribution – of the world population. Natural resources are already severely limited, and there is emerging evidence that natural forces already starting to control human population numbers through malnutrition and other severe diseases. At present, more than 3 billion people worldwide are malnourished; grain production per capita has been declining since 1983; irrigation per capita has declined 12% during the past decade; cropland per capita has declined 20% during the past decade; fish production per capita has declined 7% during the past decade; per capita fertilizer supplies essential for food production have declined 23% during the past decade; loss of food to pests has not decreased below 50% since 1990; and pollution of water, air, and land has increased, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of humans suffering from serious, pollution-related diseases. Clearly, human numbers cannot continue to increase.     

Solar photovoltaic investments and economic growth in EU: Are we able to evaluate the nexus?

A core question in energy economics may be stated as follows: Is the cost–benefit analysis being correctly applied when we encourage investments in renewables, as an alternative to the traditional energy sources? The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been extensively treated within economics literature. Yet, literature on the nexus between specific energy sources and GDP is almost inexistent. In this article, we intend to explore the relationship between a certain type of renewable generation technology (solar PV) and GDP. The present and above all the planned energy mix might differ widely from one country to another. Thus, the analysis by source of energy generation becomes a helpful instrument for policy-making. Using a fixed effects panel data methodology and a sample of eighteen EU countries, we find that a 1 % increase in solar PV installed capacity and in electricity production from renewable sources has a positive impact on GDP of 0.0248 and 0.0061 %, respectively. We also conclude that a 1 % growth on greenhouse gas emissions positively affects GDP by 0.3106 %. Further evidence reveals that, in terms of country-specific analysis, Germany, France, Italy and the UK have the most significant estimations for fixed effects. In fact, Germany is a solar PV technology producer, France has a very active nuclear sector, with little pressure for both renewables development and CO₂ reductions, Italy had in this period a strong governmental support to this sector, and the UK has a strong connection between the solar PV and the industry sectors.     

Scenario Formation of Energy Demand and CO_2 Emissions for Sustainable China

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental friendly scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions for sustainable China has been formed based on the results of comparison. Under environmental friendly scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion ton coal equivalence （tee） and CO2 emissions will be 1.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tee that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than that in Japan in 2003. It is certain that to fulfill the environmental friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors,     

The copper cycles of European countries

A comprehensive technological copper cycle treating a series of life stages (mining and processing, fabrication, utilization, and end of life) has been constructed for sixteen countries on the European continent for the year 1994. In this paper we draw on that information to present country-level copper cycles for a sampling of the countries. We then compare the countries on the basis of their relative and absolute copper production, import/export, usage, recycling, and losses to the environment, and go on to produce per capita assessments of flow and stock changes. Among the results of particular interest are: (1) country-level copper budgets possess features often different from the continental budgets of which they are a part. For example, Europe extracted only slightly more copper from mines than it deposited in landfills, while the mine to landfill flow ratio was about 11:1 in Poland and near zero in the United Kingdom; (2) Germany led all other countries in the group of sixteen in the absolute magnitude of every major copper flow (production, import, export, consumption, and waste generation, and in per capita flows of copper entering use and waste management), while the Benelux countries led all others in per capita flows for all other categories; (3) citizens of essentially all the countries discarded 1–3 kg Cu/year, mostly in obsolete electronics and end-of-life vehicles.     

中国大气环境治理的新启示--来自武汉疫情管控期间的自然实验

在武汉疫情管控期间,企业经济活动和机动车活动水平明显大幅下降,大部分污染源基本停止排放,意味着在此期间全国各地区应该出现优良天气,但是事实上在我国部分地区却出现了严重雾霾天气,这种反预期现象引起人们的普遍关注,甚至怀疑我国大气环境治理是否存在失误。根据这种反预期现象,提出环境污染应当是由流量污染和存量污染共同决定的猜想。为验证这一猜想,分别假设了两种情况:第一种只有流量污染,第二种既有流量污染又有存量污染,并用武汉疫情管控前后的实际排放数据模拟得到空气质量状况,寻找雾霾形成的规律,然后与武汉疫情管控前后实际监测数据进行对比,确定反预期现象的原因。实际数据和模拟数据对比发现,实际情况与假设1不符,与假设2相符。据此认为,大气污染是由当期排放的污染与积累的存量污染共同决定。在此基础上,进一步分析存量污染造成的经济损失,分析表明:2007年被低估1.64亿元,到2017年被低估3.83亿元;在消散率为0.05、贴现率为0.01时,流量、存量和流量与存量损失的差额分别为6.5亿元、50.5亿元和44.0亿元,这意味着2007—2017年总的经济损失被低估44.0亿元。在消散率为0.3、贴现率为0.1时,流量、存量和流量与存量损失的差额分别为4.6亿元、10.5亿元和5.9亿元,这意味着2007—2017年总的经济损失被低估5.9亿元。研究发现,长期累积形成的存量污染是一个被忽视的大气污染源,从而解释了在武汉疫情管控期间低水平经济活动条件下仍然会出现重度大气污染的经验事实。其政策含义在于,制定反污染政策需要根据存量污染的特征进一步完善相关政策设计。     

The economic,environmental and agricultural land use effects in the European Union of agricultural labour subsidies under the Common Agricultural Policy

In this study, we assessed the economic, environmental and agricultural land use impacts in the EU of a 20% reduction in the Pillar I budget of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) and spending the saved money via a subsidy on labour in primary agriculture. The impact of such a policy has been assessed with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a partial equilibrium (PE) model. It is concluded that reallocation of Pillar I budgets to a coupled agricultural labour subsidy increased employment in agriculture, especially in agricultural sectors and regions that are relatively labour intensive. Average employment in agriculture in the EU increased with 1.6% in the CGE model and with 0.6% in the PE model. Agricultural production and environmental emissions from agriculture increased as well. At the same time, prices of agricultural outputs decreased. Value added including subsidies increased for agricultural labour, but total value added in agriculture decreased. The latter was especially explained by decreased land prices and land-related value added. Measured in terms of equivalent variation, total welfare in the EU decreased. Welfare costs equalled about 1400 € per full-time work equivalent in agriculture extra. These results show that policy makers should weigh carefully the pros and cons of the direct and indirect overall economic, environmental and land use impacts of a subsidy on agricultural labour at the expense of the Pillar I budget of the EU CAP.

     

NEWS

Abstract

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental friendly scenario of energy demand and CO₂ emissions for sustainable China has been formed based on the results of comparison. Under environmental friendly scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion ton coal equivalence (tce) and CO₂ emissions will be 1.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tce that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than that in Japan in 2003. It is certain that to fulfill the environmental friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO₂ emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors.     

Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.     

欧洲有关国家关于执行欧盟废旧电子电气指令的措施

随着全球高科技工业的迅猛发展、人类消费水平的不断提高和消费结构的变化，电子废弃物快速增长，并造成日益严重的环境污染问题，因此引起了全球各国高度关注并制定了相关环境管理对策。2003年2月13日，欧盟公布了《废旧电子电气设备指令》（简称WEEE指令）和《限制某些有害物质在电子电气设备中使用指令》（简称ROHs指令）。欧盟各国实践表明，欧盟成员在欧盟指令公布之前已经制定了关于收集和适当处理电子电气废物的规定，这些规定基本上与欧盟新指令有着相同的内涵。因此，欧盟成员政府并不需要为了满足欧盟指令的新要求而对目前国内的电子电气处理体制做太大的修改，故可以预期欧盟各国执行欧盟关于废旧电子电气设备指令过程中将不会导致过多问题产生，并且执行成本相对较小。     

京津冀及江浙沪经济圈生态足迹比较分析

利用生态足迹模型分析了1996~2008年京津冀和江浙沪经济圈的人均生态足迹和生态承载力，并将两大经济圈的核心城市做了相应的对比。结果表明：京津冀经济圈的人均生态足迹高于江浙沪经济圈，其中江浙沪经济圈的生态足迹增长速度相对较高；两大经济圈人均生态承载力在1998年均有较大幅度下降，其后基本保持不变；两大经济圈1996~2008年均处于生态赤字状态，且呈现逐年增加态势，经济圈内核心城市人均生态赤字远高于同区域的省份，京津冀经济圈大部分年份人均生态赤字高于江浙沪经济圈；北京、天津、上海3大核心城市的各项生态足迹指标均呈上升趋势，天津市和上海市的人均生态足迹和人均生态赤字两项指标均高于北京市，且历年上海市的人均生态足迹平均要高出天津市14%以上，人均生态赤字高出天津市279%。未来经济圈的发展需要发挥其经济优势，通过技术创新提高资源利用效率，改变生产和生活方式，使地区经济保持可持续发展     

基于高程的环境库兹涅茨曲线实证分析

本文利用GIS的空间分析技术。以高程带为取样单元。研究在高程带上三种主要的大气污染物与经济发展之间的定量关系。以重庆市为例,验证环境库兹涅茨在高程上是否存在。研究结果发现。污染物浓度随高程的增加呈非单调下降的趋势。人均GDP随高程的增加先增大后减小。在高程上。污染物浓度与经济发展之间的关系和两者在时间序列和国别（或地区）序列上环境库兹涅茨曲线研究的结论相似。其中。TSP和NOx分别与人均GDP之间呈较稳定的呈“N”形和饲“U”形关系。受人口密度和高程影响较大；而SO2与人均GDP之间关系不稳定。     

四川省畜禽粪便排放时空分布及污染防控

掌握畜禽粪便的时空分布，有利于高效防控其污染环境的可能。采用排污系数法，估算出2000～2015年间四川省畜禽粪便、COD及氮磷产生量，在此基础上，分析了2015年四川省畜禽粪便的排放时空分布特征与畜禽粪便、氮、磷污染情况。结果表明：（1）2000～2015年，四川省畜禽粪便平均产生量约2.10亿t猪粪当量，其中猪、牛、家禽是当地环境威胁的主要畜禽种类；（2）2015年四川省产沼气潜力可观，但大部分地区受到畜禽粪便污染，其中德阳市、雅安市两地预警级别达Ⅵ级，对环境影响严重；（3）2015年四川省氮、磷耕地负荷的平均值分别为78.45 kg/hm2和13.57 kg/hm2，均低于欧盟的限量标准（氮170 kg/hm2、磷35 kg/hm2），但大部分地区面临氮、磷污染风险。其中成都市、德阳市、雅安市氮、磷污染风险均较高，自贡市、泸州市等氮、磷污染风险整体不高，但畜禽养殖量近50%环境容量，这些地区应做好畜禽养殖总量控制及污染物消减措施。 关键词： 畜禽养殖；粪便污染；时空分布；污染防控；四川     

江苏省农业比较优势格局及与周边省市比较分析

:将江苏省置于长江中下游种植区内 ,运用国内资源成本系数DRCC(DomesticResourcesCostCoefficient)和RDRCC(RatioDomesticResourcescostCoefficients)指标考察了江苏省与周边省市 (包括上海、安徽、浙江、江西、湖北和湖南 )农业生产比较优势的差异 ,从而全面地认识了相对于长江中下游种植区六省市江苏省农业生产的比较优势格局。根据分析 ,与周边地区相比 ,江苏省秋收作物粳稻、大豆 ,夏收作物油菜籽、棉花和早籼稻 ,常年生作物茶叶生产都具有不同程度的相对比较优势 ,可考虑通过适当的政策将资源导向这些产品的生产上 ;同时重点压缩小麦、中籼稻、玉米、花生、烤烟等不具相对比较优势产品的生产。此外 ,江苏桑蚕茧可考虑稳定现有的生产 ,而苹果生产可适当调减。主要饲养业产品中 ,蛋鸡、肉鸡和淡水鱼具有相对比较优势 ,其饲养总量可以考虑进一步扩大 ,相反 ,生猪和菜羊不具相对比较优势 ,饲养规模应适当压缩。而江苏奶牛饲养总规模可考虑稳定 ,并适当扩大国营集体饲养的规模     

长江口湿地生态系统服务功能价值的评估

长江口湿地是我国重要的滨海湿地，具有多种生态服务功能。参考Costanza等提出的17项生态系统服务功能，利用市场价值法、造林成本法、影子工程法、费用替代法以及专家评估法等方法．对长江口湿地生态价值进行了评估。结果表明，长江口湿地生态系统的生态服务价值为40．00亿元/a。其中，成陆造地价值为9．0亿元/a，物质生产价值8．86亿元/a，大气组分调节价值为1．15亿元/a，水分调节价值为1．54亿元/a，净化水体价值为3．4l亿元/a，提供栖息地价值为2．86亿元/a，文化科研价值为8．38亿元/a，美学价值为4．81亿元/a。并提出对生态系统服务价值的利用应本着可持续发展的原则。     

安徽省粮食生产的主成分分析及其趋势预测

采用安徽省1978～2010年的相关社会经济统计资料为基础数据,在对33 a来粮食动态变化的定量定性分析基础上,利用主成分分析方法探讨了区域粮食生产的影响因子。然后根据安徽33 a粮食总产量的历史数据,建立GM(1,1)预测模型,对安徽省未来20 a（2011～2030年）的粮食产量进行中长期的模拟预测,以期为相关部门粮食生产决策提供科学依据。研究表明：(1)1978～2010年,安徽省粮食生产在波动中增长,粮食总产量和人均粮食产量曲线的动态变化基本吻合。（2）影响粮食生产的3个主要成分分别是社会经济发展水平、农业生产成本和粮食作物播种面积。（3）粮食生产在2011～2030年将保持平稳增长的良性发展态势,2030年粮食预测产量达到4 119万t,比2010年增长了1 039万t,年均增长15%。〖HJ1〗〖HJ〗     

Reaching National Kyoto Targets in Germany and Sustainable Development

Within this paper, we analyze the fulfillment of the Kyoto emissions reduction commitment particularly in Germany and its implication on the long-term paths of all macro-variables. Germany, like all other industrial or Annex-B countries, must reduce its emissions by 2010 according to what we call a Kyoto Forever scenario. We specifically investigate tradable permits as reduction measures in a national overlapping generations (OLG) model, where we change the discounting technique by using generation adjusted discounting (GAD) in comparison to conventional OLG discounting. We show that within our model framework Germany is able to develop along growing paths of, for example, gross domestic product (GDP) in sharp contrast to conventional results of OLG simulations. At the same time, current generations must share higher burdens in terms of lower GDP, per capita consumption and employment which can be initially interpreted as contemporary costs for reaching sustainable paths and, second, contributions for internalizing external effects. However, all costs in terms of lower macro-variables for current living generations are re-compensated through higher future values. This effect can be interpreted as an intergenerational application of full cost bearance, or, in other words, the polluter pays principle which is oriented towards sustainability of greenhouse gases abatement.     

我国能源节约战略研究

节约能源，保护环境，是全面建设小康社会、实现可持续发展的必不可少的前提条件。中国万美元GDP能耗水平是发达国家的3至11倍。节能潜力很大。其中工业部门是我国的能源消费大户。其能源消费占全国能源消费总量的比重一直保持在70％左右，其节能潜力也居第一位。2020年中国实现全面建设小康社会的目标．人均GDP是3000美元，按届时人口15亿计算，全国GDP为49500亿美元，所需要的能源总量是33亿t标准煤，万美元GDP的能耗是6．67吨标煤；人均能耗是2．13吨标煤。只要政策选择适当。我国完全可以以当初发达国家一半的能源供应实现其相应的人均经济发展目标。为此，我们需要继续建立和完善适应市场经济要求的推动能源节约与资源综合利用的新机制；加快制定与《节约能源法》配套法规，引导和规范用能行为；加快建立以企业为主体的技术创新体系。     

中国环境效率评价及其影响因素实证研究

环境效率是实际污染排放和潜在污染排放的一种度量。本文运用包含污染排放的环境DEA模型,测算了1998-2007年中国省际环境效率,检验了其收敛情况。结果显示,全国环境效率总体水平较低,省际、区域间差距较大,表明现阶段实行地区间减排合作、推动环保技术在区域间扩散的现实必要性;分别从20032、005年开始,省际、区域环境效率差距逐渐缩小,存在一定的收敛趋势;同时,本文采用Tobit模型分析了影响环境效率因素,研究发现人均GDP对提高环境效率具有积极影响,而工业比重上升、财政分权度的提高以及贸易自由化对环境效率具有显著的负面影响。最后,基于实证研究的结果,就减少地区污染排放、提高我国环境效率给出了相关政策建议。