中国金属矿产的消费强度与回收潜力分析

从中国金属资源安全的角度来看,优化战略性金属矿产的供应结构,降低一次矿产的对外依存度,通过合理的政策导向有效地增加中国城市矿产开发效率,挖掘废旧金属的回收和利用潜力,是实现矿产资源安全保障的重要前提。本文以铁、铜、铝等三种金属矿产为例,采用美国、英国、法国、德国、日本等五个工业化国家及中国1949—2015年的面板数据,通过构建消费强度、回收密度和寿命分布函数分析了工业化五国金属消费和报废金属回收的历史规律,预测了2016—2030年中国三种金属消费和报废回收的变化趋势。结果显示:(1)五个工业化国家铁、铜、铝金属的消费强度经历了快速上升、平台缓降和较快下降的过程,而回收密度则经历了缓慢上升、较快增长和快速增长的三个阶段,在消费强度与回收密度的第三阶段呈现"脱钩"特征;(2)中国铁、铜、铝三种金属的消费强度大幅增加主要是集中在2000年以后,2015年我国铁、铜、铝的消费强度分别为540 kg/人、8 kg/人和23 kg/人,回收密度分别只有100kg/人、0.5 kg/人和3 kg/人,除铁、铝的消费强度进入平台下降期外,铜消费强度和三种金属回收密度仍处于增长的第一阶段;(3)预计2030年,中国铁、铜、铝的消费强度将分别为450 kg/人、9 kg/人和20 kg/人,仍处在平台缓慢下降阶段,回收密度将分别增加到220kg/人、3 kg/人和5 kg/人,回收密度与消费强度比例分别达到49%、33%和25%。通过对比可知,中国未来社会报废金属回收潜力巨大,如果能加以有效政策引导,加快回收利用,可大大缓解中国战略性金属的安全保障压力。     

Water pollution footprints induced by industrial import and export in China

With the rapid development of foreign trade in China, industrial import and export has been an absolute subject in recent years. The huge trade surplus of import and export trade of industrial products brings not only high profits, but also pollution costs as well. Based on the concept of water pollution footprints (WPFs), this study applies the input-output method and calculates pollutant-producing coefficients of 20 major industrial sectors in China and investigates the WPFs caused by the import and export trades of these industrial sectors. The research results show that WPF resulting from exports exceeds that of imports from 2011 to 2015 in China. The net inflow of pollution footprint is mainly from paper mills, printing and stationery manufacturing, and textile industry; whereas a great number of WPFs are transferred to other countries by these sectors, such as metal mining and dressing industry and oil and natural gas exploitation industry.     

The impact of economic,social, and political globalization and democracy on life expectancy in low-income countries: are sustainable development goals contradictory?

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals announced by the United Nations are important guides for the development processes of developing countries. However, achieving all of these goals is only possible if the goals are consistent with each other. It has been observed in the literature that possible contradictions between these goals are ignored. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate whether two sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the UN are contradictory or supporting each other in low-income countries. These SDGs are “Good Health and Well-Being” (SDG3) and “Partnerships for the Goals” (SDG17). For this purpose, the role of globalization and democracy in life expectancy is empirically investigated in 16 low-income countries over the period 1970–2017. While globalization has been used as an indicator of the partnership between countries, democracy has been used as an indicator of accountability and cooperation between governments and societies. According to estimations of the continuous-updated fully modified (CUP-FM) and bias-adjusted ordinary least squares (BA-OLS), globalization and its subcomponents such as economic, social, and political globalization affect life expectancy positively. Democracy also increases life expectancy in those countries. The GDP per capita is also used as a control variable. Our results show that a higher level of per capita income is positively associated with higher levels of life expectancy. In conclusion, no contradiction was found between SDG3 and SDG17 in those countries. Achieving a healthier society requires economic, social, and political integration between governments and societies.

     

湖北经济发展的周期性及其驱动因素

研究经济发展的周期性及其驱动因素，"淡化"经济周期的剧烈波动，对优化调控经济管理、促进经济稳定增长具有重要意义。采用经验模态分解（Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD）和偏最小二乘回归（Partial Least squares Regression,PLSR）相结合方法，对1952~2007年湖北人均GDP进行了多尺度分析及不同时间尺度下的驱动因素分析。结果发现：（1）56 a来，湖北人均GDP在波动中不断增长，存在准47 a、准112 a和准56 a 3个波动周期和一个先轻微下降后持续递增的趋势项；（2）湖北人均GDP不同周期性波动的共同驱动因子有资本形成总额、原煤产量、水泥产量、进出口总额、旅客周转量，不同因子及其驱动大小分别为准47 a依次有社会消费品零售总额、居民消费、农林牧渔总产值、钢产量、货物周转量，准112 a依次有社会消费品零售总额、发电量、农林牧渔总产值、钢产量，准56 a依次有居民消费、政府消费、邮电业务总量，趋势项依次有社会消费品零售总额、居民消费、政府消费、发电量、农林牧渔总产值、钢产量、邮电业务总量、货物周转量。湖北及中央政府相关政策制定者应特别关注促进资本积累与形成，有效调控原煤与水泥等主要工业产品产量，制定合理的进出口贸易政策，提高旅客运输效率及运输能力等。
     

三峡工程对下荆江径流变化影响分析

下荆江作为长江最不稳定的江段之一，三峡工程的运行必然会对该江段的水文过程产生深远影响。以监利水文站日均流量数据为基础，研究分析了1983~2012年近30 a来下荆江年径流量、各月月均流量的变化趋势。结合三峡工程的阶段性蓄水，以蓄水前流量的自然波动幅度为基础，定量分析了三峡工程对下荆江径流变化的影响程度。趋势性分析结果显示，近30 a来下荆江年径流量呈波动性变化，无显著趋势。1~3月月均流量有极显著的增加趋势，10月份有极显著的下降趋势。从三峡工程蓄水前后各月份月均流量的绝对变化量来看，10、7和8月的变化量最大，但结合三峡工程蓄水前各月月均流量的自然波动幅度，相对变化率最大的月份为1、2和10月，其相对变化量均超过其自然波动幅度的1.5倍。对于相对变化量较大的月份可能产生的潜在影响亟需进一步的深入研究     

The energy consumption of Paris and its supply areas from the eighteenth century to the present

Since the eighteenth century and the industrial revolution, cities have experienced great changes in their metabolism, and particularly in their energy consumption: transitions from one energy source to another, growing per capita consumption, and total consumption to cite but a few. These changes also impact urban energy supply areas and supply distance. This paper estimates Paris??s energy demand in both final and primary terms since the eighteenth century and gives an illustration of long-term socio-ecological interactions in an interdisciplinary perspective, connecting energy flow analysis, and historical research. It gives an overview of energy supply areas and assesses the distance between supply sites and the city. Paris??s annual total energy requirement (TER) was about 19?GJ per capita at the beginning of the eighteenth century and reached 30?GJ per capita in 1800; the supply area remained nearly the same with an average supply distance (D_avg) of 200?km. During the nineteenth century, Paris??s population increased fivefold, and energy transitioned from biomass to fossil fuel. Per capita TER remained stable, whereas Paris??s supply area moved progressively toward coal basins, in connection with the tremendous change in transport systems. As a consequence, the D_avg grew to 270?km around 1870. During the twentieth century, and especially since the Interwar period, per capita TER increased considerably (to 26?GJ/cap/year in 1910, 47?GJ/cap/year in 1946 and 126?GJ/cap/year in 2006). The internationalization of the energy supply and the shift to petroleum and natural gas also increased the remoteness of the supply sites: the D_avg equaled 3850?km in 2006.     

环境载荷与环境压强:环境压力指标及应用

一个国家的经济活动产生的环境压力与其具有的环境承载能力。决定了该国社会与经济发展的可持续状况。因此．测度环境压力和承载力是制定可持续发展目标和政策的必要条件之一。基于国家尺度的社会代谢物质流、地理面积和生态承载面积。可以构建出一个国家本国环境所承受的环境压力总量指标体系——环境载荷和环境压强；德国、荷兰、奥地利、日本和美国等五个工业国家的环境载荷和各环境压强总量指标若干年的实证计算和对比分析。可以发现．虽然美国的国内环境总载荷、人均物质总需求及人均生态足迹赤字等均是各国最高者．其环境压强却处于五国的最低端。与奥地利相近；以环境压强指标测度。除日本不明显外．其余四国的经济发展与本国环境压力之间在研究期（1975—1996）均显示出“脱钩”关系．即本国环境压强并没有随经济总量的增长而增加。为此．最后就环境问题的公平性和环境压力指标的优缺点进行简要讨论。     

中国低碳发展的国际比较研究——基于历史和经济发展阶段的审视

随着近年来我国碳排放总量的增加,一些西方国家开始把碳减排责任的矛头指向中国。为了明确中国碳排放的国际地位,运用历史唯物主义观点,从经济发展阶段视角进行了国际比较研究。首先运用IEA2011年公布的碳排放数据分析了我国2009年面临的碳排放形势,继而研究了工业革命以来中国碳排放的总体贡献情况,最后从经济发展阶段视角进行了国际比较研究。认为:①尽管我国当前的碳排放总量巨大,但人均碳排放量低于世界前10名的主要碳排放国家,碳排放强度与世界主要碳排放国家相比还存在一定差距;②我国的历史累计碳排放贡献及人均碳排放均较低,发达国家和地区的累计碳排放量达到世界累计碳排放量的近3/4;③与发达国家相同经济发展阶段相比,我国的人均碳排放和碳排放强度远低于主要发达国家和地区;④世界主要发达国家和地区在快速推进工业化的经济发展阶段普遍伴随着高碳排放。鉴于此,我们认为应该辩证地看待中国的碳排放,一方面中国当前的确产生了较大的碳排放,另一方面中国的经济发展阶段决定了这种碳排放规模和水平。发达国家的经济发展轨迹和碳足迹也表明,在工业化快速推进的过程中,一定程度的高碳排放是世界经济发展的客观规律。     

Measuring environmental degradation by using principal component analysis

The objective of the paper is to measure environmental degradation on the basis of some selected indicators by the application of a simple multivariate technique known as Principal Component Analysis. For this purpose the study considered six variables, namely, GDP per capita, fuel consumption, total fertility rate, water supply, sanitation, and electricity. However, because of unavailability of data, the variables such as technology relating to environment, waste disposal, air pollution, women/gender issues relating to environment, corruption, democracy etc. could not be considered. The results show that principal components explain about 62% of the variations in the level of environmental degradation. The variables like GDP per capita, fuel consumption, water supply and electricity played a major role in classifying the countries in terms of environmental degradation compared to the variables, sanitation and total fertility rate. The findings show that countries which have high GDP per capita, low fuel consumption, higher percentage of people having access to water supply and sanitation as well as electricity ranked higher in terms of environmental quality despite high fertility rate as shown by the spectacular example of Saudi Arabia. By contrast, those countries which have low percentage of population having access to safe water and sanitation as well as electricity, high fuel consumption and high fertility were ranked lower in terms of environmental quality despite high per capita income, as shown by the example of Angola which is placed in lowest position among the 51 selected countries. The results also show that correlation between poverty and environmental degradation is particularly acute in African countries where high population growth is acting as an exacerbating factor. The study concluded that high fertility has much impact on environmental degradation in case of poorer countries than in case of rich countries.

论碳关税的福利效应

哥本哈根会议上碳关税引发热议,成为发达国家和发展中国家讨论的焦点.本文从碳关税的内涵出发,梳理了有关碳关税问题的已有研究,通过建立一个简单的局部均衡模型,对征收碳关税情况下进口国、出口国的福利以及全球福利变化进行了分析,研究得出:进口国征收碳关税能提高本国福利水平,减低出口国的福利水平,但福利变化程度取决于进口国国内碳税、出口国是否征税国内碳税、进出口国国内碳密集度水平等情况.进一步.由于温室气体排放是全球公共品,用全球福利最大化代替进口国福利最大的约束条件,探讨了最优碳关税的确定方法,认为最优碳关税取决于需求函数和供给函数的值,由出口国国内碳税与外部性的差异与进口国国内碳税与外部性差异的比值来决定.温室气体减排是国际贸易面临的新问题,碳关税仅仅拉开了以气候变化之名进行国际贸易保护的序幕,如何有效地将国际气候变化规则纳入国际贸易利益的维护中是我们未来面临的重要课题.     

An International Comparative Analysis on China’s Economic Growth and the Convergence in Energy Intensity Gap and Its Economic Mechanism

Abstract

In this paper, the authors have empirically analyzed the convergence in per capita GDP gap and the convergence in the variation of energy intensity with respect to the change of per capita GDP between China and eight developed countries. Then, the authors run a regression on the impact of decisive factors of economic growth on energy intensity and its change, so as to find out the economic mechanism of energy intensity gap changing with respect to the variation of economic growth. This study concludes that: First, there is a convergence in per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries. With the convergence in per capita GDP gap, the energy intensity gap between China and eight different countries also converge, and the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former, i.e. if the per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries decreases by 1%, the energy intensity gap between them will correspondingly decrease by 1.552%. Second, the energy intensity decreases with the improvement of industrial structure, the rising of energy prices, the advances of technology, and the expansion of investment in fixed assets, and it slightly increases with the increase of FDI. Third, the energy intensity gap between China and eight developed countries narrows with the lessening of the difference in fixed assets investment, energy prices, and technological progress between China and eight developed countries, yet increases with the narrowing of the difference in FDI, and has no significant correlation with the difference in industrial structure. Fourth, the narrowing of difference in per capita GDP between China and the eight developed countries can result in the lessening of energy intensity gap, whose economic mechanism is that the decisive factors, such as difference in investment, technology, and the competition mechanism of prices, which can determine the difference in economic growth, can significantly affect the energy intensity gap.     

山东省经济发展与环境保护关系的计量分析

经济增长与环境污染之间的关系常用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）来描述。典型的EKC一般量倒U形。本文选取1988-2002年的山东省环境与经济数据．建立单位GDP污染排放量横型和人均GDP污染排放量模型,对山东省经济发展与环境保护之间的关系进行了计量与分析。通过单位GDP污染负荷模型分析发现。单位GDP的污染负荷量下降态势。这说明山东省产业结构调整已产生明显成效。通过人均GDP污染排放量模型发现．山东省的EKC不完全符合典型的库兹涅茨曲线特征。呈显着的三次曲线特点。其中,工业废水曲线为“U＋倒U”形．两个转折点的理论计算值分别为3416元和9975元。废气与固废曲线近似于倒U形EKC的左半部分．尚来到达转折点。由此可见．环境质量的改善并非随着收入水平的提高而自动发生。除了收入因素。影响山东省EKC的因素还有国家或地区的环境政策、工业化进程等。     

Quantifying the limits of HANPP and carbon emissions which prolong total species well-being

Anthropogenic climate and land-use change are leading to irreversible losses of global biodiversity, upon which ecosystem functioning depends. Since total species' well-being depends on ecosystem goods and services, man must determine how much net primary productivity (NPP) may be appropriated and carbon emitted so as to not adversely impact this and future generations. In 2005, man ought to have only appropriated 9.72 Pg C of NPP, representing a factor 2.50, or 59.93%, reduction in human-appropriated NPP in that year. Concurrently, the carbon cycle would have been balanced with a factor 1.26, or 20.84%, reduction from 7.60 Gt C/year to 5.70 Gt C/year, representing a return to the 1986 levels. This limit is in keeping with the category III stabilization scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Projecting population growth to 2030 and its associated basic food requirements, the maximum HANPP remains at 9.74 ± 0.02 Pg C/year. This time-invariant HANPP may only provide for the current global population of 6.51 billion equitably at the current average consumption of 1.49 t C per capita, calling into question the sustainability of developing countries striving for high-consuming country levels of 5.85 t C per capita and its impacts on equitable resource distribution.     

Basic Environmental Requirements for EU Accession: An Impact Study on Hungary

It can be stated in general that (with the exception of agriculture) the Hungarian economy, because of its outdated technologies, is a bigger threat to the environment than countries of Western Europe. However, as the volume of economic output, per capita consumption and the number of motor vehicles is considerably lower than those in more advanced industrial nations, by most indicators low per capita figures put Hungary in a better position. Still, we must remember that the EU's environmental policy puts heavy emphasis on the efficient utilization of resources and environmental efficiency, calculated against pollution generated in the course of creating units of national wealth and the amount of energy and natural resources required to it. By these standards, Hungary lags far behind the West European model.The problem is compounded by the fact that, while nations of Western Europe had created environmental infrastructure (i.e., wastewater disposal and treatment, waste management) in an earlier phase of their economic development, Hungary is only now embarking on a similar project. Indeed, the existing gap between utility services of drinking water and sewage disposal and treatment, and large amounts of untreated and illegally dumped waste lead to serious environmental damage. Although the state of the country's natural environment is considered satisfactory, factors outlined above indicate there are many responsibilities ahead of us if we are to meet western environmental standards.     

安徽省耕地资源数量变化及其对粮食安全的影响

利用1978年以来30年的耕地资源统计数据，分析了安徽省耕地资源数量变化总体特征，探讨了耕地资源数量变化对粮食安全的影响。其结果表明：（1）耕地资源总量和人均耕地占有量均有呈直线递减趋势，其中耕地资源总量年均减少率为024%，人均耕地面积年均减少率为115%。（2）粮食产量总体呈增加趋〖JP2〗势，但具有较明显波动性，粮食安全仍将面临着很大挑战。（3）粮食总产量与单产水平和复种指数密切相关；而粮食总产量年变化率，则主要受耕地面积和粮食播种面积变化影响。1978年以来，耕地资源数量逐渐成为影响该省粮食产量增加的主要限制因子.     

晶硅光伏组件出口对中国碳排放的影响

基于文献资料,估算了2004-2009年中国晶硅光伏组件制造过程中的能源消耗和CO2排放强度。研究发现,2004-2009年,晶硅光伏组件制造过程中的能耗强度和CO2排放强度均逐年下降。2009年,单晶、多晶光伏组件制造过程中的能耗强度分别为2 629 kWh/kWp和2 242 kWh/kWp,碳排放强度分别为1 829 gCO2/Wp和1 559 gCO2/Wp。由于晶硅光伏组件的大量出口,中国不仅出口了大量的隐含碳,还损失了数量可观的、潜在的CO2减排能力。2004-2010年,中国的隐含碳净出口量由3万tCO2增加到852万tCO2;如果出口的晶硅电池全部用于国内,在其生命周期内累计可减排CO23.4亿t。除2004年和2010年外,国内安装的晶硅光伏组件在其生命周期内所能减少的CO2排放不足以抵消晶硅光伏行业的CO2排放,晶硅光伏行业对中国CO2减排的贡献为负。在多晶硅全部国产的情况下,中国若维持晶硅电池应用中的CO2减排量与全行业CO2排放量的平衡,至少应将晶硅组件制造的7.2%安装在国内使用。若多晶硅进口比例仍保持在50%左右,则至少应将晶硅组件制造的4.9%安装在国内使用。     

武汉市工业“三废”污染状况计量模型研究

根据武汉市1987~2003年经济状况（以人均GDP表示）与工业“三废”污染物排放量的统计数据，借助SPSS和EXCEL软件系统，分析了人均GDP与工业“三废”污染物排放量之间的相关关系,并建立了两者之间的计量模型。通过研究发现：武汉市工业“三废”污染物（如工业废水、工业废水中的Cr+6、工业废气中SO2、工业粉尘和工业固废等排放量，工业固体废弃物产生量）除工业固体废弃物产生与排放量在EKC曲线的左边、还处于两难区间外，其余的曲线已过或正处于EKC转折点，说明武汉市工业“三废”污染状况开始向良性化方向发展。在武汉市环境没有遭到完全破坏、资源没有完全耗竭时，根据研究结果， 进行了“烫平”武汉市工业“三废” 排放量EKC曲线走势的可行性分析。     

Toward environmental sustainability: how do urbanization,economic growth,and industrialization affect biocapacity in Brazil?

The South American country Brazil is one of the richest countries in terms of natural resources, representing 14 percent of the world’s total biocapacity. However, the biocapacity (biosphere’s ability to generate resources and sequester waste) per capita in Brazil has shown a massive decline over the last five decades, while economic growth and urbanization have rapidly increased for the same period. Brazil is one of the largest creditors of biocapacity to the world, and biocapacity loss in Brazil can lead to devastating environmental consequences. Therefore, this work empirically investigates the influence of urbanization, economic growth, and industrialization on biocapacity controlling human capital from 1961 to 2016 in Brazil. The Bayer and Hack cointegration test, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique, and Hacker and Hatemi-J (J Econ Stud 39:144–160, 2012) causality tests are employed. The findings unfolded a U-shaped relationship between economic growth and biocapacity, evidencing that economic growth reduces biocapacity, but after achieving a threshold level, it promotes biocapacity. Urbanization has a negative relationship with biocapacity per capita, indicating that urbanization is a significant driver of the biocapacity loss in Brazil. Further, urbanization and economic growth Granger cause biocapacity. Lastly, relevant policy implications are proposed to overcome the reduction in biocapacity.

     

中美两国经济发展与铜消费量对比研究

发达国家的发展过程表明,经济增长与铜消费量密切相关。本文由IPAT方程推导了铜消费指标与GDP间的关系式,得出GDP的年增长率（g）的单位GDP铜消费量的年下降率（t）是影响铜消费量变化的两个重要参数。给出了中、美两国铜消费指标与GDP间的关系曲线;中国1960-2004年间单位GDP的铜消费量并未形成明显的上升或下降趋势;美国1941-2004年间单位GDP铜消费量的变化总体上逐年降低,1941年为17.80kg/10^4USD,2003年为2.56kg/10^4USD,单位GDP的铜消费量降低近7倍。对应不同的单位GDP铜消费量年下降率的假设,估计了未来25年内中国经济增长与铜消费指标间的关系以及单位GDP铜消费量降低的倍数。     

基于高程的环境库兹涅茨曲线实证分析

本文利用GIS的空间分析技术。以高程带为取样单元。研究在高程带上三种主要的大气污染物与经济发展之间的定量关系。以重庆市为例,验证环境库兹涅茨在高程上是否存在。研究结果发现。污染物浓度随高程的增加呈非单调下降的趋势。人均GDP随高程的增加先增大后减小。在高程上。污染物浓度与经济发展之间的关系和两者在时间序列和国别（或地区）序列上环境库兹涅茨曲线研究的结论相似。其中。TSP和NOx分别与人均GDP之间呈较稳定的呈“N”形和饲“U”形关系。受人口密度和高程影响较大；而SO2与人均GDP之间关系不稳定。