武汉市工业“三废”污染状况计量模型研究

根据武汉市1987~2003年经济状况（以人均GDP表示）与工业“三废”污染物排放量的统计数据，借助SPSS和EXCEL软件系统，分析了人均GDP与工业“三废”污染物排放量之间的相关关系,并建立了两者之间的计量模型。通过研究发现：武汉市工业“三废”污染物（如工业废水、工业废水中的Cr+6、工业废气中SO2、工业粉尘和工业固废等排放量，工业固体废弃物产生量）除工业固体废弃物产生与排放量在EKC曲线的左边、还处于两难区间外，其余的曲线已过或正处于EKC转折点，说明武汉市工业“三废”污染状况开始向良性化方向发展。在武汉市环境没有遭到完全破坏、资源没有完全耗竭时，根据研究结果， 进行了“烫平”武汉市工业“三废” 排放量EKC曲线走势的可行性分析。

STUDY ON THE QUADRATIC MODEL OF INDUSTRIAL "THREE WASTES" IN WUHAN CITY--BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL KUZENTS CURVE(EKC)

In the light of the statistical data of economic (per capita GDP) increasement and the amount of discharged industrial “three wastes” during 1986~2003 in Wuhan city, the interrelations between per capita GDP and the amount of discharged pollutants were analyzed and the quadratic model were also established by dint of the SPSS and EXCEL software. The result shows that the amount of discharged pollutants (such as industrial waste water, Cr+6 in industrial waste water, SO2 in industrial exhaust gas, industrial dust, industrial solid waste and so on) in Wuhan city, except the generation and discharge amount of industrial solid waste are still in a dilemma region, have got through or are getting through the EKC curve turning point, which indicates that the environment condition is becaming better in Wuhan city. According to the result, the feasibility ironing out the tend of EKC curve of the discharge amount of industrial “three wastes” pollutant were analyzed before the environment has not been destroyed and the resource has not been exhausted completely.