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1.
A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4
Marc J. Metzger Dagmar Schröter Rik Leemans Wolfgang Cramer 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(3):91-107
Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents
a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed
to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant questions about the vulnerability of the human-environment system to global change.
Scenarios were constructed for a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate. These scenarios
were used as inputs in a range of ecosystem models in order to assess the response of ecosystem function as well as the changes
in the services they provide. The framework was used to relate the impacts of changing ecosystem service provision for four
sectors in relation to each other, and to combine them with a simple, but generic index for societal adaptive capacity. By
allowing analysis of different sectors, regions and development pathways, the vulnerability assessment provides a basis for
discussion between stakeholders and policymakers about sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
相似文献
Marc J. MetzgerEmail: |
2.
A stakeholder dialogue on European vulnerability 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Anne C. de la Vega-Leinert Dagmar Schröter Rik Leemans Uta Fritsch Jacomijn Pluimers 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(3):109-124
A stakeholder dialogue was embedded in the ATEAM project to facilitate the development and dissemination of its European-wide
vulnerability assessment of global change impacts. Participating stakeholders were primarily ecosystem managers and policy
advisers interested in potential impacts on ‘Agriculture’, ‘Forestry’, ‘Water’, ‘Carbon storage’, ‘Biodiversity’ and ‘Mountain
environments’ sectors. First, stakeholder dialogue approaches to integrated assessment are introduced. Methodological considerations
on stakeholder selection and dialogue implementation and evaluation follow. The dialogue content and process are evaluated
from the perspectives of stakeholders and scientists. Its usefulness in the research process and the relevance of outcomes
for stakeholders are particularly considered. The challenging compromises required to perform innovative research, which seeks
to achieve both peer scientific credibility and societal relevance, are emphasized. Effective stakeholder dialogues play a
substantial role in raising the visibility and meaningfulness of vulnerability assessments as critical means to improve awareness
on global change and its potential worrying impacts on society. They further provide scientists with critical information
on ecosystem management and sectoral adaptive capacity. These processes of mutual learning and knowledge exchange moreover
foster a better understanding of the potential and limits of global change modelling and vulnerability assessment for policy
and ecosystem management.
相似文献
Anne C. de la Vega-LeinertEmail: |
3.
Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: scenarios for integrated assessment 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Robert J. Nicholls Poh Poh Wong Virginia Burkett Colin D. Woodroffe John Hay 《Sustainability Science》2008,3(1):89-102
Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate
change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often
completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first
century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions
of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more
integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This
paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While
these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios,
with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that
are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning
their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors.
相似文献
Robert J. NichollsEmail: |
4.
The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany,the UK and Ireland: a simulation study 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this
to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists
from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first
reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as
tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts
is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental
interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.
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Jacqueline M. HamiltonEmail: |
5.
Graciela A. Canziani Rosana M. Ferrati Claudio Rossi Diego Ruiz-Moreno 《Regional Environmental Change》2006,6(4):181-191
The purpose of this work is to assess the impact on the Esteros del Ibera wetland ecosystem caused by the Yacyreta dam, a large hydroelectric power plant on the Parana River, Argentina, in comparison to other factors of environmental change. The project of the dam started around 1970. The power plant began operating in 1994. In 1989, the neighboring Ibera wetland ecosystem showed a substantial increase in the water level for which several different causes were conceivable, including climate change and the dam construction. We analyzed all existing hydrometeorological data and studied other changes that were observed in this ecosystem. A water balance model was used to analyze different scenarios. Increased groundwater inflow, generated since the construction of the dam, appears to be affecting the wetland more than any other factor. The study has implications for the assessment of global and regional consequences of building dams.
相似文献
Graciela A. CanzianiEmail: Phone: +54-2292-447104Fax: +54-2293-446317 |
6.
William Ascher 《Sustainability Science》2006,1(1):15-22
Given progress in policies for pursuing sustainable development, promoting commitment to thinking and acting more far-sightedly has become the primary strategic challenge. In the face of impatience, selfishness, uncertainty, analytical limitations, and vulnerability, strategies for promoting far-sightedness can be identified by assessing how these obstacles can be overcome. Strategies for creating or rescheduling tangible and deference rewards, realigning performance evaluations, implementing cognitive exercises, framing communications, altering decision-making processes, using self-restraint devices both to resist temptation and to enhance credibility, altering institutions to empower the patient, and stabilizing living conditions are the major categories for identifying and assessing the many strategies which arise out of both ordinary and constitutive policy initiatives.
相似文献
William AscherEmail: Phone: +1-909-6073071Fax: +1-909-6218419 |
7.
Athanasios Ragkos Asimakis Psychoudakis Argiro Christofi Alexandros Theodoridis 《Regional Environmental Change》2006,6(4):193-200
This study proposes the valuation of wetland functions as an alternative to the conventional approach to wetland valuation, in order to derive indicators for decision-making in wetland management. It is illustrated that these functions can be valuated in terms of the goods and services they provide to society. Using a functional approach, the functions are identified and the goods and services they provide are explicitly allocated among them; then, the latter are valuated with the Contingent Valuation method. Statistical analysis of the data provides welfare measures that reflect the value of these functions. It is argued that the values of separate functions are more useful in policy-making than their aggregated value.
相似文献
Athanasios RagkosEmail: Phone: +30-2310-998826Fax: +30-2310-998828 |
8.
Weisheng Zhou 《Sustainability Science》2006,1(1):115-122
It has been clearly recognized that future global climate change will limit the possibilities for sustainable development in China. To minimize these negative effects, as a practical strategy, we suggest that the Chinese government engage in international cooperation as a key contributor in the prevention of global warming. This suggestion results from numerical estimations of China’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends accompanied with economic growth up to 2100. The results show that China’s gross domestic product (GDP), measured in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), may overtake the sum of the GDPs of the United States and Canada in 2020. It is predicted that GDP per capita may reach US$20,000 and $80,000 in 2050 and 2100, respectively; meanwhile, CO2 emissions in China will increase from 6.6 billion tons (in carbon equivalent units) in 1990 to 54.6 billion tons in 2100. This means that the global peak concentration of GHG cannot be practically reduced without significant contributions from China. For international cooperation in mitigating global climate change, we introduce a new option, “per-capita emission restricted by assigned amount,” as an accounting rule for GHG reduction. This baseline classifies global CO2 reduction actions into three categories: compulsory reduction, self-imposed reduction, and voluntary reduction. We suggest that China contribute to world CO2 reduction according to the following timetable: voluntary reduction until 2012, self-imposed reduction until 2020, and compulsory reduction from 2020. The simulation results also indicate that China can benefit from this strategy in terms of improvements in its domestic economy and environment, for instance, by reducing fossil fuel consumption and the emission of pollutants.
相似文献
Weisheng ZhouEmail: Phone: +81-75-4663418Fax: +81-75-4663418 |
9.
The Kyoto Protocol relies on incentive-based regulations layered underneath a global cap on net emissions of greenhouse gases.
Within the Kyoto Protocol are opportunities and constraints for signatory nations. Of concern to developing nations are the
constraints the Kyoto Protocol could place on future growth. We examine the constraints and the opportunities offered to developing
countries within the Kyoto Protocol. By identifying the potential costs and benefits the Kyoto Protocol has to offer to developing
countries and by examining the incentives each create, we hope to spark serious investigations into ways to minimize the potential
costs of entering the Kyoto Protocol and take full advantage of the potential benefits.
相似文献
Amin SarkarEmail: |
10.
Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Alexander Carius Frank Eierdanz Richard Klein Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):137-149
In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political
science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding
of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive
assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions
incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators
by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the
regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case
study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases
the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary
models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated
water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper
provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance
of the differences.
相似文献
Joseph AlcamoEmail: |
11.
Accounting for the mismanagement of tropical nearshore fisheries 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The underlying reason for the mismanagement of tropical nearshore fisheries is the implementation of policies and programs
based on Western models and approaches, coupled with an inability and/or unwillingness to consider non-Western alternatives
of empirically proven value. Such attitudes are embedded in donor and development agency behavior, and are demonstrated by
the temperate bias in conventional approaches to fisheries education and management, with a corresponding lack of understanding
of tropical milieux, and in the persistence of various prejudices. Adaptive Management, The Ecosystem Approach, Local Knowledge,
and Protected Areas are discussed from the perspectives of Western models and pre-existing Pacific Island systems as alternative
models. Given the parlous condition of the global environment and resources, the best non-Western pre-existing models and
Western approaches must be blended to provide sustainable solutions.
相似文献
Francis R. HickeyEmail: |
12.
María Eugenia Ibarrarán Matthias Ruth Sanjana Ahmad Marisa London 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2009,11(3):549-569
Commonly occurring natural events become natural disasters when they affect the population through death and injury, and/or
through the destruction of natural and physical capital on which people rely for their livelihood and quality of life. Climate
change plays a role in that it tends to increase the frequency and intensity of weather-related natural disasters. Additionally,
climate change may put people at risk by influencing access to water, coastal flooding, disease and hunger, and leaving them
with a more degraded environment, leading, in turn, to increased vulnerability. The purpose of this paper is to present a
review and synthesis of the literature and case studies addressing differential impacts of climate change-related natural
disasters on a society and its economy. Developed and developing countries show different vulnerabilities to natural disasters.
Even within countries, impacts vary significantly across population and economic sectors. When losses from natural disasters
are large, their cumulative effect can have notable macroeconomic impacts, which feed back to further pronounce existing income
inequalities and lower income levels. Impacts tend to be most pronounced for women, the young and elderly, and people of ethnic
or racial minorities.
相似文献
María Eugenia IbarraránEmail: |
13.
William Ascher 《Sustainability Science》2007,2(2):141-149
The policy sciences, in offering the most comprehensive approach to policy analysis and the sociopolitical processes that
shape policy outcomes, is particularly appropriate for guiding the analysis required to promote sustainability. This article
presents the main components of the policy sciences framework and demonstrates its potency in the crucial task of deepening
the problem definitions required to select and enact policies to promote sustainability. As such, it provides background for
the policy sciences articles of this special feature.
相似文献
William AscherEmail: |
14.
Working toward sustainable community is a complex task for communities especially given the ambiguous nature of implementing
the concept of sustainable development. However, by working to understand the nature of community capital, administrators
can begin to move beyond bottom line thinking toward a more comprehensive and collective view of community. This paper presents
a theoretical framework that helps municipal decision makers begin collecting information they need to help them build sustainable
and resilient communities.
相似文献
Edith G. CallaghanEmail: |
15.
Wilfred Nyangena 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2008,10(6):745-767
Soil erosion is a major environmental problem and threat to rural development in Kenya. Numerous attempts to address the problem
have apparently had little success. There are however some districts that have been very successful, notably Machakos. In
this study we search for the factors that determine successful development in soil conservation such as social capital, human
capital and market integration. One of our main results is that social capital measures are significant determinants of investment
in soil conservation. A better understanding of the relevant mechanisms is essential for developing policies targeting improvement
in natural resource management.
相似文献
Wilfred NyangenaEmail: |
16.
Bhaskar Nath 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2008,10(4):471-486
Most environmental professionals and decision-makers, and certainly the public at large, hold the view that the integrity
of earth’s natural environment will be conserved for posterity and sustainable development achieved if all the nations rigorously
enforced their environmental and emission standards. It is argued in this paper that this view, sincerely held by many as
an “axiomatic truth,” is mistaken and misplaced. This is because as a biogeochemical entity the Earth has limited self-regenerative
capacity (SRC) to cope with anthropogenic pollution, and all kinds of environmental problems ensue when that limit is exceeded.
Indeed, mounting environmental problems now occurring on all fronts amply testify to the fact that the limit has already been
exceeded. They also provide necessary and sufficient proof that environmental and emission standards have been woefully inadequate
for protecting earth’s natural environment and life-support systems. It is argued that true global environmental sustainability
will be achieved, paving the way to true global sustainable development, if and only if global environmental and emission
standards are set so that global anthropogenic pollution does not exceed the limit of earth’s natural SRC to cope with such
pollution. These and related issues are discussed in this paper. A simple mathematical model using basic mathematics is also
presented to explain how the phenomenon of “positive feedback” works in some of the environmental problems to exacerbate environmental
degradation and progressively to erode nature’s SRC.
相似文献
Bhaskar NathEmail: |
17.
Motivation of Japanese companies to take environmental action to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions: an econometric analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
To analyze the motivations of Japanese companies to take environmental actions to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,
we used FY2006 research data and questioned Japanese industries regarding their reduction of GHG emissions. Empirical investigations
revealed that voluntary targets set by industry organizations, government requirements, and advance responses to possible
future regulations can positively influence environmental actions for GHG emission reduction; however, cost reductions and
corporate social responsibility fulfillment cannot.
相似文献
Seiji IkkataiEmail: |
18.
Carbon neutral Biggar: calculating the community carbon footprint and renewable energy options for footprint reduction 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The objective of this research was to develop a community carbon footprint model that could be used to assess the size and
major components of a community’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The town of Biggar aims to become Scotland’s first carbon neutral town. As expected for this rural community,
car transport accounted for nearly half of the CO2 emissions, with natural gas and electricity consumption resulting in a further 24% and 12% of total emissions, respectively,
and air travel being the last major component at 10% of emissions. An assessment was also made of the wind and solar resources
of the town. One large wind turbine would provide the town’s electricity, while three to four turbines would be needed to
offset all CO2 emissions. In contrast, offsetting by tree planting would require in the region of 2,000 ha of trees.
相似文献
R. J. BarthelmieEmail: |
19.
This report summarizes the results of two studies of electricity supply for Europe (EU), the Middle East (ME) and North Africa
(NA) up to the year 2050. It shows that a transition to competitive, secure and sustainable supply of electricity and water
is possible using renewable energy sources, efficiency gains and fossil fuel backup for balancing power. A strong cooperation
between the EU and MENA for the market introduction of renewable energy and the interconnection of the electricity grids by
high-voltage direct-current transmission are keys to the success and survival of the whole region. However, the necessary
measures will take at least two decades to become effective. Therefore, adequate policy and economic frameworks for their
realization must be introduced immediately. The importance of sustainable energy for the security of freshwater supplies in
MENA is also described.
相似文献
Hans Müller-SteinhagenEmail: |
20.
Refining the ecological footprint 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
Ecological footprint measures how much of the biosphere’s annual regenerative capacity is required to renew the natural resources
used by a defined population in a given year. Ecological footprint analysis (EFA) compares the footprint with biocapacity.
When a population’s footprint is greater than biocapacity it is reported to be engaging in ecological overshoot. Recent estimates
show that humanity’s footprint exceeds Earth’s biocapacity by 23%. Despite increasing popularity of EFA, definitional, theoretical,
and methodological issues hinder more widespread scientific acceptance and use in policy settings. Of particular concern is
how EFA is defined and what it actually measures, exclusion of open oceans and less productive lands from biocapacity accounts,
failure to allocate space for other species, use of agricultural productivity potential as the basis for equivalence factors
(EQF), how the global carbon budget is allocated, and failure to capture unsustainable use of aquatic or terrestrial ecosystems.
This article clarifies the definition of EFA and proposes several methodological and theoretical refinements. Our new approach
includes the entire surface of the Earth in biocapacity, allocates space for other species, changes the basis of EQF to net
primary productivity (NPP), reallocates the carbon budget, and reports carbon sequestration biocapacity. We apply the new
approach to footprint accounts for 138 countries and compare our results with output from the standard model. We find humanity’s
global footprint and ecological overshoot to be substantially greater, and suggest the new approach is an important step toward
making EFA a more accurate and meaningful sustainability assessment tool.
相似文献
Jason VenetoulisEmail: |