美国洪泛平原管理的新方向

根据美国联邦跨机构洪泛平原管理审查委员会对密西酉比河１９９３年特大洪水的调查分析以及对美国现行洪泛平原管理方式、水土资源规划的原则与准则等的评价，简要介绍现有管理方式存在的问题与发展方向，为我国从事洪泛区规划与管理提供参考信息．     

由洪水泛滥的教训谈国家统一灾害管理

本文系统分析和总结了美国在洪泛平原管理中的经验教训，研究了减灾措施、行为反应及国家长期减灾目标等方面的内容，从综合的角度提出了统一的国家减灾计划。     

中国海岸带低地洪涝潮灾害管理系统研究

沿海平原低地洪涝潮灾害管理是一涉及多个学科领域众多因子的复杂问题。作者以系统观点建立了灾害管理系统。采用ＩＳＭ模型，理顺系统内部的结构关系。文中以江苏省为例，分析其灾害管理现状，并定量确定了未来水利投资的地区优先级     

秦岭—黄淮平原交界带近五百年的旱涝研究

本文根据旱涝史料及现代观测资料，运用旱涝等级评定法和农田水分平衡法，对秦岭－黄淮平原交界带自１４７０￣１９８０年逐年的旱涝状况进行了评定，重建了秦岭－黄淮平原交界带１４７０￣１９８０年近５００ａ的旱涝等级序列，在此基础上讨论了旱涝发生的基本规律。运用山地－平原交界带气候边际效应的观点，探讨了山地－平原交界带气候边际效应与旱涝的关系。     

秦岭─黄淮平原交界带近五百年的旱涝研究

本文根据旱涝史料及现代观测资料，运用旱涝等级评定法和农田水分平衡法，对秦岭─黄淮平原交界带自１４７０～１９８０年逐年的旱涝状况进行了评定，重建了秦岭─黄淮平原交界带１４７０～１９８０年近５００ａ的旱涝等级序列，在此基础上讨论了旱涝发生的基本规律。运用山地─平原交界带气候边际效应的观点，探讨了山地─平原交界带气候边际效应与旱涝的关系．     

黄泛平原的土壤侵蚀灾害及防治对策

本文阐述了黄泛平原土壤侵蚀的特点，对侵蚀的形式、程度及严重危害，作了比较详细的分析，并从宏观上提出了一些防治对策。     

京津冀平原城市洪涝综合治理的若干问题研究

京津冀协同发展和北京非首都功能疏解有序实施,是以城市群建设为载体。随着京津冀城镇化率逐步提高,人口不断迁移和聚集、建筑物密度增高,京津冀城市群将面临更多、更不确定的自然灾害影响,洪涝灾害是区域内平原城市普遍面临的严峻问题之一。本文通过研究京津冀平原在历史发展长河中随着建设规模扩大、气候变化加剧、生态环境破坏等人为活动和自然因素对城市带来的洪涝灾害影响,探索在合理的建设标准下,通过流域协同治理、城市精细管理、设施韧性运行,实现对城市洪涝风险的综合防控。     

美国应急管理法律体系特点分析与启示

为了深入分析美国应急管理法律,研究美国应急管理法律体系特点,提出将美国应急管理法律体系分为专门、相关和其它应急管理法律三类的系统归类方法。通过归类,采用归纳分析的方法,从美国联邦政府层面和州政府层面两个角度出发,分别对各层面的应急管理法律作了分析总结。通过对联邦应急管理法律的分析,发现了联邦应急管理法律的主要作用是政府协作、职责划分和行动授权等。通过对州层面及路易安娜州应急管理法律的分析,发现了州应急管理法律起到了进一步推动地方应急管理工作发展的作用。在分析的基础上,总结了美国应急管理法律体系的基本特点,提出了健全和完善我国应急管理法律体系的建议。     

气象,新的战争武器

在一望无际的平原上,林立着高达十几米的天线,从飞机上往下看,那就好像是冷杉中的一个方阵。我们目前在阿拉斯加的加科纳附近,这里有美国海军和空军为执行高频有源极光研究计划而在1993年建立的一个研究所。高频有源极光研究计划自确定以来引起了种种争论。美国军人在这个偏僻的角落里在干什么呢?他们不会是在进行影响气候的尝试吧?     

美国应急管理“连续性”政策分析与启示

通过对美国应急管理"连续性"政策发展历程、法律规定及"连续性"政策主要内容的分析,总结美国应急管理"连续性"政策对于支撑各类紧急情况下应急工作持续开展的重要作用及特点。结合美国经验及我国应急管理发展趋势,从完善我国应急管理"连续性"政策建设、构建国家应急管理"连续性"政策框架、夯实应急管理基础体系、创新我国特色应急管理"连续性"工作、营造全民应急"连续性"氛围等五个方面,提出了完善发展我国应急管理"连续性"工作的建议。     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.