高效率颗粒物微物理模型简介与重污染过程应用分析

中国细颗粒物(PM2.5)导致的空气污染和雾霾天气问题越来越突出,在低层对流层中很多地方都有显著的二次颗粒物生成过程,因此对颗粒物物理化学转化过程的研究具有重要意义,其转化过程对空气质量模式模拟和预报的准确性有重要影响。高效率颗粒物微物理(APM)模型经过近20多年的研究和发展,在全球化学传输模型(GEOS-Chem)、区域性气象和化学预报模型(WRF-Chem)通用地球系统模型(CESM-CAM5)等气象及环境空气质量预报模型中取得了很好的应用验证,能够在全球/区域等不同尺度对粒子生成、长大、凝聚、消除等微物理过程以及气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)、直接/间接辐射强迫等进行模拟。应用GEOS-Chem-APM模式模拟了2014年2月京津冀区域的重污染过程。结果显示,湿度模拟的准确性对其他物理和污染物浓度等模拟结果有重要作用;2月20—26日的重污染过程模拟结果与实际观测较为吻合,主要污染特点是较高的湿度(90%以上),同时,二次颗粒物和包裹了二次物种的一次颗粒物(黑碳/有机碳)是低能见度的最大贡献者。     

基于OPAQ的城市空气质量预报系统研究

空气质量预测在国内的关注度日益提高,传统的空气质量预测系统通常运用数值化学传输模型,利用物理方程来计算污染物的扩散、沉降和化学反应。而化学传输模型的预测准确性很大程度上需要依赖详细的污染源排放信息和气象模型的输出结果。基于统计模型的OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统,采用人工神经网络算法,可预测各污染物的日均值或日最大值。并对北京空气质量预报的结果进行了评价,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统对空气质量预测的准确性较高,能够利用较低的计算资源得到较为准确的预测结果。与数值预报相比,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统不需要大量的基础数据作为输入,可弥补数值预报的不足,并成为数值预报的有力补充。     

Short-Term Forecasting of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) Levels Using a Hybrid Statistical and Air Mass History Modelling Approach

A novel hybrid model has been developed to support the provision of real-time air quality forecasts. Statistical techniques have been applied in parallel with air mass history modelling to provide an efficient and accurate forecasting system with the ability to identify high NO₂ events, which tend to be the episodes of most significance in Ireland. Air mass history modelling and k-means clustering are used to identify air mass types that lead to high NO₂ levels in Ireland. Trajectory matching techniques allow data associated with these air masses to be partitioned during model development. Non-parametric regression (NPR) has been applied to describe nonlinear variations in concentration levels with wind speed, direction and season and produce a set of linearized factors which, together with other meteorological variables, are employed as inputs to a multiple linear regression. The model uses an innovative integrated approach to combine the NPR with the air mass history modelling results. On validation, a correlation coefficient of 0.75 was obtained, and 91 % of daily maximum (hourly averaged) NO₂ predictions were within a factor of two of the measured value. High pollution events were well captured, as indicated by strong agreement between measured and modelled high percentile values. The model requires only simple input data, does not require an emission inventory and utilises very low computational resources. It represents an accurate and efficient means of producing real-time air quality forecasts and, when used in combination with forecaster experience, is a useful tool for identifying periods of poor air quality 24 h in advance. The hybrid approach outlined in this paper can easily be applied to produce high-quality forecasts of both NO₂ and additional pollutants at new locations/countries where historical monitoring data are available.     

烟花爆竹禁燃对春节期间东北地区空气质量影响评估

利用2015—2017年春节期间东北地区主要大气污染物(PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2、CO和O3)质量浓度监测资料及相应气象因子(温度、湿度、风速和气压)观测资料,分析了春节期间烟花爆竹禁燃对东北地区空气质量的影响。结果表明:随着东北地区主要城市禁燃力度的增强,空气质量逐年提升,PM_(2.5)和SO_2浓度逐年大幅度下降。禁燃可明显降低城区PM_(2.5)浓度,而由于春节期间污染源整体减少,城区和城郊监测点PM_(2.5)浓度值差异减小。烟花爆竹对PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)浓度影响高于对气体污染物SO_2、NO_2和CO的影响。此外,气象条件对东北地区春节期间禁燃改善空气质量的效果也有明显影响。因此,结合春节期间的气象条件,在东北地区实施禁燃政策动态调整非常必要。     

基于复合LSTM模型的PM2.5浓度预测

在对淄博市19个空气质量监测站点监测数据进行分析后,提出了一种基于机器学习的复合模型——灰色关联度分析(GRA)-改进的完备总体经验模态分解(ICEEMD)-长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型。通过分析淄博市2019年大气污染物和气象数据,选用LSTM模型预测PM_2.5浓度。由于传统单一模块机器学习模型具有训练时间较长和预测精度较低的问题,提出了复合LSTM模型。该模型由3部分组成：GRA,用于PM_2.5浓度影响因素变量筛选;ICEEMD,用于PM_2.5分解、分量筛选和原始大气污染物及气象数据处理;LSTM,用于PM_2.5浓度预测。预测结果表明：淄博市中部丘陵地带PM_2.5浓度高于南部山区和北部平原,东部高于西部;淄博市逐月PM_2.5浓度呈“U”形分布,1月最高,8月最低;淄博市PM_2.5浓度受PM₁₀和CO影响较大,受湿度和温度影响较小。对比单一LSTM模型和GRA-LSTM模型,GRA-ICEEMD-LSTM模型...     

The Use of Measurement Programmes and Models to Assess Concentrations Next to Major Roads in Urban Areas

This paper shows that monitoring campaigns in association withmodelling, particularly detailed roadside modelling, are auseful and cost effective method of assessing air quality. Itproposes that an approach based on detailed monitoringassociated with concurrent meteorological data can be used incombination with a roadside model to assess concentrations at other locations near a road and in other weather conditions. Plans for improving air quality can also be assessed in simpleways. The need for complex models based on detailed emissioninventories is avoided.Two examples from streets in London and Paris are presented inwhich measurements of CO, NO_x and volatile organic compoundshave been made. The measurements are interpreted usingcorrelations between pollutant concentrations and with windspeed, and by using the USEPA CALINE4 model. It is demonstratedthat air quality measurements can be used to assess the validityof road traffic emission factors.     

江淮地区秋季一次典型污染过程分析

结合2018年10月15—20日国控站点监测数据、气象资料及激光雷达走航观测结果,对江淮地区一次重度污染过程进行了分析。利用拉格朗日粒子扩散模型和拉格朗日混合单粒子轨迹模型定性分析了区域污染来源,分别基于激光雷达和空气站实测数据提出了外来源占比的估算方法,结合嵌套网格空气质量预报模式(NAQPMS)的源解析结果,对比分析了外来源占比。以淮北市为例,结合NAQPMS和单颗粒气溶胶质谱的PM2.5在线源解析结果,对比分析此次污染过程的行业来源。结果表明,本地污染累积时段,主要以燃煤和机动车尾气混合源为主(占比>70%);受北方污染输送时段,机动尾气占比显著升高,从19.4%(16日00:00)升至66.7%(17日11:00),淮北市、蚌埠市、合肥市3个城市污染物外来输送占比分别为52.2%~70.6%、48.8%~58.8%、41.5%~59.0%。     

沈阳市冬季环境空气质量统计预报模型建立及应用

利用沈阳市2013年1—2月大气自动监测数据和同期气象资料,选取19项预报因子,采用逐步回归方法建立了沈阳市冬季环境空气质量统计预报模型,预报项目包括细颗粒物(PM2.5)、可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)、一氧化碳(CO)日均浓度及臭氧(O3)日最大8 h平均浓度。2013年11月至2014年1月,应用该模型并结合人为经验修订,开展了沈阳市环境空气质量预报工作,预报结果与实测结果的对比验证结果表明,环境空气预测结果级别准确率达到79.1%,首要污染物准确率为73.6%。     

臭氧数值预报模型综述

光化学大气质量模型在研究臭氧(O_3)污染以及O_3预报方面具有核心作用,是O_3污染防治决策者的有力工具。文章结合目前中国及国际区域尺度光化学大气质量预报模型的研究与应用,重点论述与O_3有关的大气化学过程在数值预报模型中的数学表达和计算方法,阐述大气物理与大气化学过程在主流大气质量数值预报模型中的实现方法及其优势和缺陷,介绍用于数值预报模型的大气物理过程和湍流参数化方案的最新进展。就当前O_3数值模拟的主要输入资料进行讨论,强调那些易被忽视但又显著影响模型预报能力和效果的诸多因素以及模型效果评估的重要性。结合O_3与复合型大气污染的关系,强调区域大气质量数值预报模型的发展趋势与方向以及在大气环境管理方面的意义和作用。     

Detecting and correcting sensor drifts in long-term weather data

Quality control of long-term monitoring data of thousands and millions of individual records as present in meteorological data is cumbersome. In such data series, sensor drifts, stalled values, and scale shifts may occur and potentially result in flawed conclusions if not noticed and handled properly. However, there is no established standard procedure to perform quality control of high-frequency meteorological data. In this paper, we outline a procedure to remove sensor drift in high-frequency data series using the example of 15-year-long sets of hourly relative humidity (RH) data from 28 stations subdivided into 202 individual sensor operation periods. The procedure involves basic quality control, relative homogeneity testing, and drift removal. Significant sensor drifts were observed in 40.6 % of all sensor operation periods. The drifts varied between data series and depended in a complex, usually inconsistent way on absolute RH values; within single series for instance, a drift could be negative in the lower RH range and positive in the upper RH range. Detrending changed RH values by, on average, 1.96 %. For one fifth of the detrended data, adjustments were 2.75 % and more of the measured value, and in one tenth 4.75 % and more. Overall, drifts were strongest for RH values close to 100 %. The detrending procedure proved to effectively remove sensor drifts. The principles of the procedure also apply to other meteorological parameters and more generally to any time series of data for which comparable reference data are available.     

Evaluation of relationship between meteorological parameters and air pollutant concentrations during winter season in Elazığ, Turkey

In recent years, due to the rapid increase in population density, building density and energy consumption, the outdoor air quality has deteriorated in the crowded urban areas of Turkey. Elaz?? city, which is located in the east Anatolia region of Turkey, is also influenced by air pollutants. In the present study, relationship between monitored air pollutant concentrations such as SO₂ and the total suspended particles (TSP) data and meteorological factors such as wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and atmospheric pressure was investigated in months of October, November, December, January, February, and March during the period of 3 years (2003, 2004 and 2005) for Elaz?? city. According to the results of linear and non-linear regression analysis, it was found that there is a moderate and weak level of relation between the air pollutant concentrations and the meteorological factors in Elaz?? city. The correlation between the previous day’s SO₂, TSP concentrations and actual concentrations of these pollutants on that day was investigated and the coefficient of determination R² was found to be 0.64 and 0.54, respectively. The statistical models of SO₂ and TSP including all of meteorological parameters gave R² of 0.20 and 0.12, respectively. Further, in order to develop this model, previous day’s SO₂ and TSP concentrations were added to the equations. The new model for SO₂ and TSP was improved considerably with R²?=?0.74 and 0.61, respectively.     

重庆市北碚区空气质量改善效果评估分析

基于2014—2020年重庆市中心城区北碚区环境监测数据及地面观测气象要素,分析了北碚区大气污染特征,利用KNN算法建立大气污染的评估模型,对空气质量改善效果进行评估。结果表明,重庆市中心城区北碚区的PM_2.5浓度逐年呈明显下降趋势,O₃浓度除夏季有一个弱的下降趋势外,其余3个季节和年平均值整体均呈上升趋势。全年以优良天气为主且呈增加趋势。O₃与气温、日照时间呈正相关,与相对湿度呈负相关性,PM_2.5与气温、降水及风速呈负相关。基于KNN算法对空气质量改善状况评估表明,减排对O₃污染平均贡献率在-4.7%左右,对PM_2.5污染平均贡献率为-52%,气象条件对O₃污染的平均贡献率在17%左右,对PM_2.5污染的平均贡献率在-7%左右。该大气污染评估模型能够有效地评估空气改善效果。     

基于WRF-NAQPMS的一次沙尘天气预报评估

为提高沙尘天气的预报准确率,利用ECWMF再分析资料和近地面PM₁₀小时质量浓度监测数据,评估WRFNAQPMS模式对2021年3月15—21日甘肃强沙尘过程的预报能力。结果表明,WRF-NAQPMS能够在一定程度上模拟此次污染过程:WRF对“3· 15”天气系统的模拟与实况整体趋势较为一致,随着预报时效延长,气象模拟场移动偏快,导致沙尘预报场发展偏快、沙尘二次传输影响下游时间提前;近地面风向的局地偏差是导致甘肃中东部地区沙尘浓度出现预报误差的主要气象因素。NAQPMS模式对PM₁₀小时质量浓度的模拟随着预报时效增加和离沙源地距离的增大,预报误差逐步增大:在河西地区,沙尘影响时段和起沙浓度的模拟值均接近监测值,其中嘉峪关、酒泉、张掖的PM₁₀小时质量浓度模拟值与监测值相关系数r>0.8;中部地区城市的沙尘影响时段预报略有偏差,且模拟值低于监测值;受复杂下垫面和气象场预报误差影响,省内其他地区沙尘预报结果参考性较低。     

Using process-based models to filter out natural variability in observed concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in river water

Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.     

2017年上半年北京市及周边地区空气质量特征分析

依托北京市、廊坊市和保定市高密度的地面空气质量监测、气象要素监测以及PM_2.5化学组分监测和后向轨迹分析等手段，对2017年上半年三地的空气质量进行分析。研究发现：三地中北京市空气质量较好，保定市较差。分污染物来看，保定市SO₂浓度水平明显高于廊坊市和北京市，颗粒物PM₁₀和PM_2.5也呈现保定市最高、北京市最低的规律。从污染物日变化来看，CO、SO₂、NO₂、PM₁₀和PM_2.5呈双峰型分布，O₃呈单峰型分布。从区域整体分布规律来看，PM_2.5和SO₂呈现明显的"南高北低"特征。PM_2.5化学组分分析结果表明：1—4月燃煤对该区域空气质量的影响较大，5—6月机动车排放的影响更为凸显。后向轨迹分析结果表明：在2017年上半年到达北京市的气流中有24%来自于北京市南部，且这些气流多为低空传输，表明区域传输对于北京市空气质量具有一定的影响。     

Three-dimensional Modelling of Radionuclides Dispersion in a Marine Environment with Application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi Case

In this work, we present the implementation, verification and validation of a three-dimensional model able to reproduce the propagation of \(^{137}C_{s}\) radionuclide in coastal waters and its interaction with suspended sediments, in the framework of the open-source TELEMAC-MASCARET modelling system. The validation of the model was realized by comparing numerical results with field measurements of radionuclides concentration in the Japan Sea nearby the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (NPP). The developed model uses as external forcing the data available immediately after or during the accident, as, e.g. weather conditions (wind, pressure, temperature) and/or the harmonic components of tides. In contrast with previous models implemented in the study area, the model presented here is limited to the coastal area near Fukushima and refined in the coastal area close to the NPP. Numerical results show that the model is able to reproduce the propagation and diffusion of the released \(^{137}C_{s}\) in the vicinity of the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP. Consequently, we show that the numerical results obtained with a small-scale model with a simple forcing are consistent, at a coastal scale, with models which employed a general circulation model based on data assimilation techniques or variation method for hydrodynamics. Therefore, this model could be employed in an emergency situation, when the dissolved radioactivity is considered.

     

Simulation of Urban-Scale Air Pollution Patterns in Luxembourg: Contributing Sources and Emission Scenarios

The aim of this study is to investigate the air pollution situation in an urban area in southwestern Luxembourg and to simulate annual NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations in response to changes in meteorological conditions and emissions using a Gaussian dispersion model. Simulations are carried out for the years 1998–2006. Emission scenarios related to road transport and nonindustrial combustion are performed in order to predict changes of air pollution levels. Road transport is by far the most important local emission source in the study area. Scenarios with more stringent emission standards for vehicles, less traffic, and fewer heavy-duty vehicles lead to reductions of NO_x and primary PM₁₀ emissions. As a result, the annual NO₂ concentrations are decreasing in most parts of the study area and are below the European annual limit value of 40 μg?m^?3. In contrast, a scenario with increased use of wood pellets for domestic heating shows an increase in urban PM₁₀ concentration. The year-to-year variability of meteorological conditions accounts for the same magnitude of absolute NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentration changes as the emission scenarios. The comparison with measurements located in the study area shows that the model is able to predict urban-scale annual average air pollution. The proposed application results show that the model can be appropriate for policy-driven air quality management and planning queries.     

基于KZ滤波法的江淮地区PM2.5浓度变化影响分析

基于2018—2020年合肥、芜湖和马鞍山3个城市国控站点的PM_2.5逐日监测数据和同期地面气象观测资料,利用Kolmogorov-Zurbenko(KZ)滤波对PM_2.5日浓度的原始时间序列进行分解,获取短期分量、季节分量和长期分量,并进行多元线性逐步回归构建各分量与气象因子的模型,最后依据短期分量和基线分量的回归模型和残差分析,对序列进行重建,获取消除气象条件影响的PM_2.5长期分量。KZ滤波分析结果表明：2018—2020年气象条件对江淮区域PM_2.5污染改善影响存在波动,在2018—2019年为负贡献,而在2020年秋冬季则变为正贡献;江淮地区3个城市2018年和2020年PM_2.5修正后的长期分量均值表明气象条件对各市PM_2.5改善影响存在差异较大,气象条件对合肥PM_2.5改善的贡献仅为1.0%,芜湖为7.8%,马鞍山为21.0%;NAQPMS数值模式情景分析结果显示,减排措施对江淮之间PM_2.5浓度改...     

Mann–Kendall trend of pollutants,temperature and humidity over an urban station of India with forecast verification using different ARIMA models

The purpose of the present research is to identify the trends in the concentrations of few atmospheric pollutants and meteorological parameters over an urban station Kolkata (22° 32′ N; 88° 20′ E), India, during the period from 2002 to 2011 and subsequently develop models for precise forecast of the concentration of the pollutants and the meteorological parameters over the station Kolkata. The pollutants considered in this study are sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), particulates of size 10-μm diameters (PM₁₀), carbon monoxide (CO) and tropospheric ozone (O3). The meteorological parameters considered are the surface temperature and relative humidity. The Mann–Kendall, non-parametric statistical analysis is implemented to observe the trends in the data series of the selected parameters. A time series approach with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling is used to provide daily forecast of the parameters with precision. ARIMA models of different categories; ARIMA (1, 1, 1), ARIMA (0, 2, 2) and ARIMA (2, 1, 2) are considered and the skill of each model is estimated and compared in forecasting the concentration of the atmospheric pollutants and meteorological parameters. The results of the study reveal that the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) is the best statistical model for forecasting the daily concentration of pollutants as well as the meteorological parameters over Kolkata. The result is validated with the observation of 2012.     

融合拓扑信息与气象信息的空气质量预测网络

通过空气质量监测数据对正在形成或即将到来的空气污染进行预测是一项具有重要意义的工作，而空气质量监测站只能检测其周围一定范围内的空气污染情况。为了衡量整个城市的空气污染情况，获取任意时间、任意位置的空气质量信息，结合交叉注意力机制，提出了一种融合拓扑信息与气象信息的空气质量预测网络(CGMIM)。将西安市空气质量监测数据与气象数据转换为图像拼接起来，作为输入信息。在高阶非线性时空动态神经网络(MIM)的基础上引入注意力机制，并增加拓扑图编码器模块，提高模型提取能力以及对空气质量监测数据中的空间特征的利用率。最后，使用时空损失函数替代传统的均方误差损失函数，提高模型对空间关系的关注。结果表明：CGMIM网络模型能够在准确预测的同时，对位置区域合理填充，能够有效提升空气质量监测数据的空间分辨率。