Impacts of Dams on Flow Regimes in Three Headwater Subbasins of the Columbia River Basin,United States1

Moore, Johnnie N., Alicia S. Arrigoni, and Andrew C. Wilcox, 2012. Impacts of Dams on Flow Regimes in Three Headwater Subbasins of the Columbia River Basin, United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 925‐938. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00660.x Abstract: We compared long‐term changes in flow regimes resulting from climate change with those resulting from dams in three matched pairs of natural and modified headwater subbasins of the Columbia River. Based on the analysis of 12 flow‐regime metrics, we found that damming had minimal effect on most quantity of flow metrics, but major effect on timing of flow metrics, especially those representing “spring runoff.” In all modified subbasins, “spring runoff” metrics occurred much earlier than natural flow (up to ～44 days earlier for April‐July flows). Storage capacity modulated the magnitude of timing of flow‐metric changes, with the largest storage capacity leading to the most change. However, even in subbasins with low storage capacity, we found significant change in most timing of flow metrics. We also found that damming, especially in subbasins with higher storage capacity, overwhelmed climate variability in all basins for most flow metrics. This shows that reservoir operations need to be modified to more closely match the natural timing of flow regimes to promote positive ecologic response in modified rivers, even in basins where quantity of flow metrics have not changed substantially as a result of damming.     

Effect of Climate Warming and Drought on Urban Stream Temperatures in a Semiarid,Seasonal System

Stream temperatures are key indicators for aquatic ecosystem health, and are of particular concern in highly seasonal, water‐limited regions such as California that provide sensitive habitat for cold‐water species. Yet in many of these critical regions, the combined impacts of a warmer climate and urbanization on stream temperatures have not been systematically studied. We examined recent changes in air temperature and precipitation, including during the recent extreme drought, and compared the stream temperature responses of urban and nonurban streams under four climatic conditions and the 2008–2018 period. Metrics included changes in the magnitude and timing of stream temperatures, and the frequency of exceedance of ecologically relevant thresholds. Our results showed that minimum and average daily air temperatures in the region have increased by >1°C over the past 20 years, warming both urban and nonurban streams. Stream temperatures under drought warmed most (1°C–2°C) in late spring and early fall, effectively lengthening the summer warm season. The frequency of occurrence of periods of elevated stream temperatures was greater during warm climate conditions for both urban and nonurban streams, but urban streams experienced extreme conditions 1.5–2 times as often as nonurban streams. Our findings underscore that systematically monitoring and managing urban stream temperatures under climate change and drought is critically needed for seasonal, water‐limited urban systems.     

Streamflow Response to Climate as Influenced by Geology and Elevation1

Mayer, Timothy D. and Seth W. Naman, 2011. Streamflow Response to Climate as Influenced by Geology and Elevation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):724‐738. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00537.x Abstract: This study examines the regional streamflow response in 25 predominately unregulated basins to warmer winter temperatures and snowpack reductions over the last half century in the Klamath Basin of California and Oregon. Geologic controls of streamflow in the region result in two general stream types: surface‐dominated and groundwater‐dominated basins. Surface‐dominated basins were further differentiated into rain basins and snowmelt basins on the basis of elevation and timing of winter runoff. Streamflow characteristics and response to climate vary with stream type, as discussed in the study. Warmer winter temperatures and snowpack reductions have caused significantly earlier runoff peaks in both snowmelt and groundwater basins in the region. In the groundwater basins, the streamflow response to changes in snowpack is smoothed and delayed and the effects are extended longer in the summer. Our results indicate that absolute decreases in July‐September base flows are significantly greater, by an order of magnitude, in groundwater basins compared to surface‐dominated basins. The declines are important because groundwater basins sustain Upper Klamath Lake inflows and mainstem river flows during the typically dry summers of the area. Upper Klamath Lake April‐September net inflows have decreased an estimated 16% or 84 thousand acre‐feet (103.6 Mm³) since 1961, with the summer months showing proportionately more decline. These changes will exacerbate water supply problems for agriculture and natural resources in the region.     

A Method to Consider Whether Dams Mitigate Climate Change Effects on Stream Temperatures

This article provides a method for examining mesoscale water quality objectives downstream of dams with anticipated climate change using a multimodel approach. Coldwater habitat for species such as trout and salmon has been reduced by water regulation, dam building, and land use change that alter stream temperatures. Climate change is an additional threat. Changing hydroclimatic conditions will likely impact water temperatures below dams and affect downstream ecology. We model reservoir thermal dynamics and release operations (assuming that operations remain unchanged through time) of hypothetical reservoirs of different sizes, elevations, and latitudes with climate‐forced inflow hydrologies to examine the potential to manage water temperatures for coldwater habitat. All models are one dimensional and operate on a weekly timestep. Results are presented as water temperature change from the historical time period and indicate that reservoirs release water that is cooler than upstream conditions, although the absolute temperatures of reaches below dams warm with climate change. Stream temperatures are sensitive to changes in reservoir volume, elevation, and latitude. Our approach is presented as a proof of concept study to evaluate reservoir regulation effects on stream temperatures and coldwater habitat with climate change.     

Relative Effects of Climate and Water Use on Base‐Flow Trends in the Lower Klamath Basin1

Abstract: Since the 1940s, snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased throughout the Pacific Northwest, while water use has increased. Climate has been proposed as the primary cause of base‐flow decline in the Scott River, an important coho salmon rearing tributary in the Klamath Basin. We took a comparative‐basin approach to estimating the relative contributions of climatic and non‐climatic factors to this decline. We used permutation tests to compare discharge in 5 streams and 16 snow courses between “historic” (1942‐1976) and “modern” (1977‐2005) time periods, defined by cool and warm phases, respectively, of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. April 1 SWE decreased significantly at most snow courses lower than 1,800 m in elevation and increased slightly at higher elevations. Correspondingly, base flow decreased significantly in the two streams with the lowest latitude‐adjusted elevation and increased slightly in two higher‐elevation streams. Base‐flow decline in the Scott River, the only study stream heavily utilized for irrigation, was larger than that in all other streams and larger than predicted by elevation. Based on comparison with a neighboring stream draining wilderness, we estimate that 39% of the observed 10 Mm³ decline in July 1‐October 22 discharge in the Scott River is explained by regional‐scale climatic factors. The remainder of the decline is attributable to local factors, which include an increase in irrigation withdrawal from 48 to 103 Mm³/year since the 1950s.     

Hydrologic Resilience from Summertime Fog and Recharge: A Case Study for Coho Salmon Recovery Planning

Fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) and late summer recharge increase stream baseflow and decrease stream temperature during arid Mediterranean climate summers, which benefits salmon especially under climate warming conditions. The potential to discharge cool water to streams during the late summer (hydrologic capacity; HC) furnished by FLCC and recharge were mapped for the 299 subwatersheds ranked Core, Phase 1, or Phase 2 under the National Marine Fisheries Service Recovery Plan that prioritized restoration and threat abatement action for endangered Central California Coast Coho Salmon evolutionarily significant unit. Two spatially continuous gridded datasets were merged to compare HC: average hrs/day FLCC, a new dataset derived from a decade of hourly National Weather Satellite data, and annual average mm recharge from the USGS Basin Characterization Model. Two use‐case scenarios provide examples of incorporating FLCC‐driven HC indices into long‐term recovery planning. The first, a thermal analysis under future climate, projected 65% of the watershed area for 8–19 coho population units as thermally inhospitable under two global climate models and identified several units with high resilience (high HC under the range of projected warming conditions). The second use case investigated HC by subwatershed rank and coho population, and identified three population units with high HC in areas ranked Phase 1 and 2 and low HC in Core. Recovery planning for cold‐water fish species would benefit by including FLCC in vulnerability analyses.     

Development of an Index of Biotic Integrity for a Southeastern Coastal Plain Watershed,USA1

Abstract: This study evaluated biological integrity expectations of fish assemblages in wadeable streams for the Alabama portion of the Choctawhatchee River watershed using a multimetric approach. Thirty‐four randomly selected stream sites were sampled in late spring 2001 to calibrate an index of biotic integrity (IBI). Validation data were collected during the spring 2001, and summer and fall of 2003 from disturbed and least‐impacted targeted sites (n = 20). Thirty‐five candidate metrics were evaluated for their responsiveness to environmental degradation. Twelve metrics were selected to evaluate wadeable streams and four replacement metrics were selected for headwater streams. Scores that ranged from 58 to 60 were considered to be representative of excellent biotic integrity (none found in this study), scores of 48‐52 as good integrity (31% of the sites in this study), 40‐44 as fair (43%), 28‐34 as poor (21%), and 12‐22 as very poor (5%). Of the four stream condition categories (urban, cattle, row crop, and least impacted), the IBI scores for urban and cattle sites differed significantly from least‐impacted sites. Row crop sites, although not significantly different from least‐impacted, tended to have greater variability than the other categories. Lower IBI scores at both urban and cattle sites suggest that the IBI accurately reflects stream impairment in the Choctawhatchee River drainage.     

COLD WATER PATCHES IN WARM STREAMS: PHYSICOCHEMICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF SHADING1

ABSTRACT: Discrete cold water patches within the surface waters of summer warm streams afford potential thermal refuge for cold water fishes during periods of heat stress. This analysis focused on reach scale heterogeneity in water temperatures as influenced by local influx of cooler subsurface waters. Using field thermal probes and recording thermistors, we identified and characterized cold water patches (at least 3°C colder than ambient streamflow temperatures) potentially serving as thermal refugia for cold water fishes. Among 37 study sites within alluvial valleys of the Grande Ronde basin in northeastern Oregon, we identified cold water patches associated with side channels, alcoves, lateral seeps, and floodplain spring brooks. These types differed with regard to within floodplain position, area, spatial thermal range, substrate, and availability of cover for fish. Experimental shading cooled daily maximum temperatures of surface waters within cold water patches 2 to 4°C, indicating a strong influence of riparian vegetation on the expression of cold water patch thermal characteristics. Strong vertical temperature gradients associated with heating of surface layers of cold water patches exposed to solar radiation, superimposed upon vertical gradients in dissolved oxygen, can partially restrict suitable refuge volumes for stream salmonids within cold water patches.     

Controls on Temperature in Salmonid‐Bearing Headwater Streams in Two Common Hydrogeologic Settings,Kenai Peninsula,Alaska

Headwater streams are the most numerous in terms of both number and length in the conterminous United States and play important roles as spawning and rearing grounds for numerous species of anadromous fish. Stream temperature is a controlling variable for many physical, chemical, and biological processes and plays a critical role in the overall health and integrity of a stream. We investigated the controls on stream temperature in salmon‐bearing headwater streams in two common hydrogeologic settings on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska: (1) drainage‐ways, which are low‐gradient streams that flow through broad valleys; and (2) discharge‐slopes, which are high gradient streams that flow through narrow valleys. We hypothesize local geomorphology strongly influences surface‐water and groundwater interactions, which control streamflow at the network scale and stream temperatures at the reach scale. The results of this study showed significant differences in stream temperatures between the two hydrogeologic settings. Observed stream temperatures were higher in drainage‐way sites than in discharge‐slope sites, and showed strong correlations as a continuous function with the calculated topographic metric flow‐weighted slope. Additionally, modeling results indicated the potential for groundwater discharge to moderate stream temperature is not equal between the two hydrogeologic settings, with groundwater having a greater moderating effect on stream temperature at the drainage‐way sites.     

FORECASTING DRY SEASON STREAMFLOW ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: The Peace River at Arcadia, Florida, is a municipal water supply supplement for southwestern Florida. Consequently, probabilities of encountering low flows during the dry season are of critical importance. Since the association between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal streamflow variability in the southeastern United States is well documented, it is reasonable to generate forecasts based on this information. Here, employing historic records of minimum, mean, and maximum flows during winter (JFM) and spring (AMJ), upper and lower terciles define “above normal,”“normal,” and “below normal” levels of each variable. A probability distribution model describes the likelihood of these seasonal variables conditioned upon Pacific SSTs from the previous summer (JAS). Model calibration is based upon 40 (of 50) years of record employing stratified random sampling to ensure equal representation from each decade. The model is validated against the remaining 10 samples and the process repeated 100 times. Each conditional probability distribution yields varying probabilities of observing flow variables within defined categories. Generally, a warm (cold) Pacific is associated with higher (lower) flows. To test model skill, the forecast is constrained to be the most probable category in each calibration year, with significance tested by chi‐square frequency tables. For all variables, the tables indicate high levels of association between forecast and observed terciles and forecast skill, particularly during winter. During spring the pattern is less clear, possibly due to the variable starting date of the summer rainy season. This simple technique suggests that Pacific SSTs provide a good forecast of low flows.     

PREDICTING INFLUENCES OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT ON THERMAL HABITAT IN A WARM WATER STREAM1

ABSTRACT: Watershed and aquatic ecosystem management requires methods to predict and understand thermal impacts on stream habitat from urbanization. This study evaluates thermal effects of projected urbanization using a modeling framework and considers the biological implications to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) to assess changes in stream thermal habitat under altered stream‐ flow, shade, and channel width associated with low, medium, and high density urban developments in the Back Creek watershed (Roanoke County, Virginia). Flow alteration by the high density development scenario alone caused minimal heating of mean daily summer base flow (mean +0.1°C). However, when flow changes were modeled concurrently with reduced shade and increased channel width, mean daily temperature increased 1°C. Maximum daily temperatures exceeding the state standard (31°C) increased from 1.1 to 7.6 percent of the time using summer 2000 climatic conditions. Model results suggest that additional urban development will alter stream temperature, potentially limiting thermal habitat and shifting the fish community structure from intolerant to tolerant fish species in Back Creek. More research is needed on the sub‐lethal or chronic effects of increased stream temperature regimes on fish, particularly for those species already living in habitats near their upper limits.     

A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TO MANAGE SUMMER STREAM TEMPERATURES1

ABSTRACT: Warm summer stream temperatures due to low flows and high air temperatures are a critical water quality problem in many western United States river basins because they impact threatened fish species’habitat. One way to alleviate this problem is for local and federal organizations to purchase water rights to be used to increase flows, hence decrease temperatures. Presented is a Decision Support System (DSS) that can be used in an operations mode to effectively use water acquired to mitigate warm stream temperatures. The DSS uses a statistical model for predicting daily stream temperatures and a rule‐based module to compute reservoir releases. Water releases are calculated to meet fish habitat temperature targets based on the predicted stream temperature and a user specified confidence of the temperature predictions. Strategies that enable effective use of a limited amount of water throughout the season have also been incorporated in the DSS. The utility of the DSS is demonstrated by an example application to the Truckee River near Reno, Nevada, using hypothetical operating policy and 1988 through 1994 inflows. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of target temperature violations (i.e., stream temperatures exceeding the target temperature levels detrimental to fish habitat).     

Stream Temperature Relationships to Forest Harvest in Western Washington1

Abstract: We compared summer stream temperature patterns in 40 small forested watersheds in the Hoh and Clearwater basins in the western Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to examine correlations between previous riparian and basin‐wide timber harvest activity and stream temperatures. Seven watersheds were unharvested, while the remaining 33 had between 25% and 100% of the total basin harvested, mostly within the last 40 years. Mean daily maximum temperatures were significantly different between the harvested and unharvested basins, averaging 14.5°C and 12.1°C, respectively. Diurnal fluctuations between harvested and unharvested basins were also significantly different, averaging 1.7°C and 0.9°C, respectively. Total basin harvest was correlated with average daily maximum temperature (r² = 0.39), as was total riparian harvest (r² = 0.32). The amount of recently clear‐cut riparian forest (<20 year) within 600 m upstream of our monitoring sites ranged from 0% to 100% and was not correlated to increased stream temperatures. We used Akaike’s Information Criteria (AIC) analysis to assess whether other physical variables could explain some of the observed variation in stream temperature. We found that variables related to elevation, slope, aspect, and geology explain between 5% and 14% more of the variability relative to the variability explained by percent of basin harvested (BasHarv), and that the BasHarv was consistently a better predictor than the amount of riparian forest harvested. While the BasHarv is in all of the models that perform well, the AIC analysis shows that there are many models with two variables that perform about the same and therefore it would be difficult to choose one as the best model. We conclude that adding additional variables to the model does not change the basic findings that there is a relatively strong relationship between maximum daily stream temperatures and the total amount of harvest in a basin, and strong, but slightly weaker relationship between maximum daily stream temperatures and the total riparian harvest in a basin. Seventeen of the 40 streams exceeded the Washington State Department of Ecology’s (DOE) temperature criterion for waters defined as “core salmon and trout habitat” (class AA waters). The DOE temperature criterion for class AA waters is any seven‐day average of daily maximum temperatures in excess of 16°C. The probability of a stream exceeding the water quality standard increased with timber harvest activity. All unharvested sites and five of six sites that had 25‐50% harvest met DOEs water quality standard. In contrast, only nine of eighteen sites with 50‐75% harvest and two of nine sites with >75% harvest met DOEs water quality standard. Many streams with extensive canopy closure, as estimated by the age of riparian trees, still had higher temperatures and greater diurnal fluctuations than the unharvested basins. This suggests that the impact of past forest harvest activities on stream temperatures cannot be entirely mitigated through the reestablishment of riparian buffers.     

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Water Temperature Regimes on the Snoqualmie River Network

Although mean temperatures change annually and are highly correlated with elevation, the entire thermal regime on the Snoqualmie River, Washington, USA does not simply shift with elevation or season. Particular facets of the thermal regime have unique spatial patterns on the river network and at particular times of the year. We used a spatially and temporally dense temperature dataset to generate 13 temperature metrics representing popular summary measures (e.g., minimum, mean, or maximum temperature) and wavelet variances over each of seven time windows. Spatial stream‐network models which account for within‐network dependence were fit using three commonly used predictors of riverine thermal regime (elevation, mean annual discharge, and percent commercial area) to each temperature metric in each time window. Predictors were strongly related (r² > 0.6) to common summaries of the thermal regime but were less effective at describing other facets of the thermal regime. Relationships shifted with season and across facets. Summer mean temperatures decreased strongly with increasing elevation but this relationship was weaker for winter mean temperatures and winter minimum temperatures; it was reversed for mean daily range and there was no relationship between elevation and wavelet variances. We provide examples of how enriched information about the spatial and temporal complexities of natural thermal regimes can improve management and monitoring of aquatic resources.     

EFFECTS OF CLEARCUTTING AND SLASHBURNING ON STREAM TEMPERATURE IN SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA1

A paired watershed study was conducted in western hemlock/western redcedar/Douglas fir forests of southwestern British Columbia to assess the effects of clearcutting and clearcutting plus slash-burning treatments on stream water characteristics. In the case of stream temperatures, both treatments increased summer temperatures as well as summer daily temperature fluctuations. These effects lasted for seven years in the case of the clearcut stream but longer in the case of the clearcut and slashburned stream. Clearcutting increased winter stream temperatures whereas slashburning caused a decrease. These changes lasted less than four years. Clearcutting and slashburning had a greater impact on stream temperatures than did clearcutting alone.     

Impacts of 21st‐Century Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

Climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America include warmer temperatures (T), reduced precipitation (P) in summer months, and increased P during all other seasons. Using a physically based hydrologic model and an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate model scenarios produced by the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, we examine the nature of changing hydrologic extremes (floods and low flows) under natural conditions for about 300 river locations in the PNW. The combination of warming, and shifts in seasonal P regimes, results in increased flooding and more intense low flows for most of the basins in the PNW. Flood responses depend on average midwinter T and basin type. Mixed rain and snow basins, with average winter temperatures near freezing, typically show the largest increases in flood risk because of the combined effects of warming (increasing contributing basin area) and more winter P. Decreases in low flows are driven by loss of snowpack, drier summers, and increasing evapotranspiration in the simulations. Energy‐limited basins on the west side of the Cascades show the strongest declines in low flows, whereas more arid, water‐limited basins on the east side of the Cascades show smaller reductions in low flows. A fine‐scale analysis of hydrologic extremes over the Olympic Peninsula echoes the results for the larger rivers discussed above, but provides additional detail about topographic gradients.     

Summer Temperature Patterns in Headwater Streams of the Oregon Coast Range1

Abstract: Cool summertime stream temperature is an important component of high quality aquatic habitat in Oregon coastal streams. Within the Oregon Coast Range, small headwater streams make up a majority of the stream network; yet, little information is available on temperature patterns and the longitudinal variability for these streams. In this paper we describe preharvest spatial and temporal patterns in summer stream temperature for small streams of the Oregon Coast Range in forests managed for timber production. We also explore relationships between stream and riparian attributes and observed stream temperature conditions and patterns. Summer stream temperature, channel, and riparian data were collected on 36 headwater streams in 2002, 2003, and 2004. Mean stream temperatures were consistent among summers and generally warmed in a downstream direction. However, longitudinal trends in maximum temperatures were more variable. At the reach scale of 0.5‐1.7 km, maximum temperatures increased in 17 streams, decreased in seven streams and did not change in three reaches. At the subreach scale (0.1‐1.5 km), maximum temperatures increased in 28 subreaches, decreased in 14, and did not change in 12 subreaches. Models of increasing temperature in a downstream direction may oversimplify fine‐scale patterns in small streams. Stream and riparian attributes that correlated with observed temperature patterns included cover, channel substrate, channel gradient, instream wood jam volume, riparian stand density, and geology type. Longitudinal patterns of stream temperature are an important consideration for background characterization of water quality. Studies attempting to evaluate stream temperature response to timber harvest or other modifications should quantify variability in longitudinal patterns of stream temperature prior to logging.     

What Matters Most: Are Future Stream Temperatures More Sensitive to Changing Air Temperatures,Discharge, or Riparian Vegetation?

Simulations of stream temperatures showed a wide range of future thermal regimes under a warming climate — from 2.9°C warmer to 7.6°C cooler than current conditions — depending primarily on shade from riparian vegetation. We used the stream temperature model, Heat Source, to analyze a 37‐km study segment of the upper Middle Fork John Day River, located in northeast Oregon, USA. We developed alternative future scenarios based on downscaled projections from climate change models and the composition and structure of native riparian forests. We examined 36 scenarios combining future changes in air temperature (ΔT_air = 0°C, +2°C, and +4°C), stream discharge (ΔQ = ?30%, 0%, and +30%), and riparian vegetation (post‐wildfire with 7% shade, current vegetation with 19% shade, a young‐open forest with 34% shade, and a mature riparian forest with 79% effective shade). Shade from riparian vegetation had the largest influence on stream temperatures, changing the seven‐day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) from +1°C to ?7°C. In comparison, the 7DADM increased by 1.4°C with a 4°C increase in air temperature and by 0.7°C with a 30% change in discharge. Many streams throughout the interior western United States have been altered in ways that have substantially reduced shade. The effect of restoring shade could result in future stream temperatures that are colder than today, even under a warmer climate with substantially lower late‐summer streamflow.     

Effects of Flow Augmentations in the Snake River Basin on Farms Profitability1

Abstract: For over 10 years, several species of salmon have been identified as either threatened or endangered in the Snake River Basin of Idaho. The United States Bureau of Reclamation, in cooperation with the National Marine Fisheries Service, has proposed a variety of plans to increase stream flows in the Snake River Basin to facilitate movement by juvenile salmon smolts to the ocean. This research examines two of the flow augmentation plans proposed by the Bureau of Reclamation as well as two alternative plans, one founded purely on existing priority‐based water rights and another geared toward minimizing the effects of flow augmentations on farms profitability. Results from a basin‐wide model of agricultural production in the Snake River Basin, the Snake River Agricultural Model, present evidence that (1) older water rights are used towards production of less valuable crops, (2) flow augmentation scenarios have unequal effects on farms profitability across agricultural regions within the basin, and (3) irrigation water is valued from US$4 to US$59 an acre‐foot.     

Long-Term Variability in Bioassessments: A Twenty-Year Study from Two Northern California Streams

Long-term variability of bioassessments has not been well evaluated. We analyzed a 20-year data set (1984–2003) from four sites in two northern California streams to examine the variability of bioassessment indices (two multivariate RIVPACS-type O/E scores and one multimetric index of biotic integrity, IBI), as well as eight metrics. All sites were sampled in spring; one site was also sampled in summer. Variability among years was high for most metrics (coefficients of variation, CVs ranging from 16% to 246% in spring) but lower for indices (CVs of 22–26% for the IBI and 21–32% for O/E scores in spring), which resulted in inconsistent assessments of biological condition. Variance components analysis showed that the time component explained variability in all metrics and indices, ranging from 5% to 35% of total variance explained. The site component was large (i.e., >40%) for some metrics (e.g., EPT richness), but nearly absent from others (e.g., Diptera richness). Seasonal analysis at one site showed that variability among seasons was small for some metrics or indices (e.g., Coleoptera richness), but large for others (e.g., EPT richness, O/E scores). Climatic variables did not show consistent trends across all metrics, although several were related to the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation Index at some sites. Bioassessments should incorporate temporal variability during index calibration or include climatic variability as predictive variables to improve accuracy and precision. In addition, these approaches may help managers anticipate alterations in reference streams caused by global climate change and high climatic variability.