Bacillus thuringiensis, nucleopolyhedrosis virus,and pheromones: Environmental considerations and uncertainties in large-scale insect control

The mode of action, extent of use, and the current knowledge on environmental fate and toxicity of three biological insecticides [Bacillus thuringiensis (B.t.), nucleopolyhedrosis virus (NPV), and pheromones] are reviewed. Data gaps, environmental uncertainties in any large-scale use, and proposed registration guidelines which may lead to more extensive use are discussed. B.t. disappears rapidly from plant foliage on exposure to sunlight and/or moisture, although it may persist in dry soil for several months or years. Foliar-applied NPVs are also inactivated by sunlight; the halflife on cotton leaves is 20–25 h. In the soil, NPVs may remain active for several years. Pheromones volatilize readily and do not persist in plant or in soil. Limited available data indicate that B.t. and pheromones do not persist in aquatic environments; quantitative data are unavailable for NPVs. Based on bioassay data, the three insecticides exhibit undetectable to low toxicity to nontarget organisms; there are also no reports of human disease or injury due to exposure to these pesticides and no bioaccumulation is expected with normal application. Except for B.t. which has been used in a limited large-scale applications, pest control uses of NPVs and pheromones are still in experimental stages. Areas of uncertainties requiring research and development include potential adverse health and ecological impacts in any large-scale and widespread use and efficacy and cost relative to synthetic chemical pesticides.     

Development of quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments when the scientific data base is inadequate

The reasons for developing quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments are discussed along with a method for developing them which involves scientific judgement. In the situation considered here the regulatory needs are ahead of the science, which makes the development of the estimates on uncertainty more difficult, but not impossible. Quantitative estimates for all uncertainties involved in the estimation of risk resulting from exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water are developed and tabulated. By far the largest contribution to the uncertainty in the risk estimates for VOCs in drinking water are due to uncertainty in the extrapolation of the dose-response curve to low levels. The uncertainty due to extrapolation is on the order of 10⁴ and 10⁶. Other components of the analysis may contribute uncertainties of a few orders of magnitude. In general the largest uncertainties are in the toxicological data base and the manipulation of it needed to estimate risk. The data base and manipulations needed to estimate exposure due to VOCs in drinking water were at the more an order to magnitudes in uncertainty.     

Chemical plant risk assessment: Uncertainties and development needs

A brief review is given covering the development of major hazards risk assessment since the Flixborough disaster of 1974, with special reference to the introduction of new regulations. The importance of risk assessment in the management of major hazards is discussed by reference to the Canvey Island studies, and it is suggested that the problem of uncertainties in the estimation of risks by analysis has not been adequately treated. Examples are given to illustrate the magnitude of such uncertainties in the consequence modelling of accidental releases from a chemical plant. In addition to suggested development needs in risk analysis techniques, topics are suggested which call for development in the evaluation and management of risks.     

Carnivores in corridors: estimating tiger occupancy in Kanha–Pench corridor,Madhya Pradesh,India

Elderly people are known to be more vulnerable than the general population to a range of weather-related hazards such as heat waves, icy conditions and cold periods. In the Nordic region, some of these hazards are projected to change their frequency and intensity in the future, while at the same time strong increases are projected in the proportion of elderly in the population. This paper reports results from three projects studying the potential impacts of climate change on elderly people in the Nordic region. An interactive web-based tool has been developed for mapping and combining indicators of climate change vulnerability of the elderly, by municipality, across three Nordic countries: Finland, Norway and Sweden. The tool can also be used for projecting temperature-related mortality in Finland under different projections of future climate. The approach to vulnerability mapping differs from most previous studies in which researchers selected the indicators to combine into an index. Here, while researchers compile data on indicators that can be accessed in the mapping tool, the onus is on the users of the tool to decide which indicators are of interest and whether to map them individually or as combined indices. Stakeholders with responsibility for the care and welfare of the elderly were engaged in the study through interviews and a workshop. They affirmed the usefulness of the prototype mapping tool for raising awareness about climate change as a potential risk factor for the elderly and offered suggestions on potential refinements, which have now been implemented. These included adding background information on possible adaptation measures for ameliorating the impacts of extreme temperatures, and improved representation of uncertainties in projections of future exposure and adaptive capacity.     

Analysis of health or systemic effects caused by two toxicants

A method is presented for the analysis of the risk to man or other systems by effects caused by a combination of two insults. The approach is purely phenomenological and has no built-in restrictions other than those required by logic and those imposed by the limited set of trial functions. The analysis attempts to isolate the dominant contributions to the risks from either agent alone and from both agents in combination. To demonstrate the viability of the method, it is applied to the analysis of human health data on oral and esophageal cancer correlated with alcohol and tobacco consumption. For both cancers, it is found that the most probable form of the relative risk is separable into a factor related to tobacco and one related to alcohol. Both have the same algebraic form and the values of the risk coefficients are practically equal. An analysis of analogous but limited data on laryngeal cancer cannot assign an algebraic form of the risk function but still yields comparable risk coefficients. Thus it is possible that all three cancers have the same risk function as a function of alcohol and tobacco consumption.     

Impact of point polluters on terrestrial ecosystems: Methodology of research,experimental design,and typical errors

The current state of the ecology of the impact regions is outlined. It is argued that the complex of ecosystems situated around a point polluter (an impact region) is an appropriate model for solving several fundamental and applied ecological problems related to the exploration of strong external impacts on biota. Typical methodological errors resulting from insufficient attention to specific features of passive experiments are analysed, and ways to avoid them are proposed. The principles of spatial arrangements of study sites within the impact region and of the selection of experimental and evaluation units are discussed.     

科技是促进人口、资源与环境良性循环的关键因素

本文从社会系统工程角度对人口、资源与环境三者的动态依存关系作了全面探讨。认为科技是转变这个系统运动性质的关键因素,人口问题的实质是自身的消耗接近于自身的供给,解决中国人口问题的根本途径是增加科技的投入。科技类似催化剂,可使潜在资源转化为现实资源,因而人均资源占有量不会绝对呈下降曲线。科技这一要素的大量介入,将使封闭的人口、资源与环境系统(就经济学意义而言)转变为一个全方位开放的、充满活力的耗散结构系统。     

Assessing the human health impacts of exposure to disinfection by-products — A critical review of concepts and methods

Understanding the public health implications of chemical contamination of drinking water is important for societies and their decision-makers. The possible population health impacts associated with exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs) are of particular interest due to their potential carcinogenicity and their widespread occurrence as a result of treatments employed to control waterborne infectious disease.We searched the literature for studies that have attempted quantitatively to assess population health impacts and health risks associated with exposure to DBPs in drinking water. We summarised and evaluated these assessments in terms of their objectives, methods, treatment of uncertainties, and interpretation and communication of results.In total we identified 40 studies matching our search criteria. The vast majority of studies presented estimates of generic cancer and non-cancer risks based on toxicological data and methods that were designed with regulatory, health-protective purposes in mind, and therefore presented imprecise and biased estimates of health impacts. Many studies insufficiently addressed the numerous challenges to DBP risk assessment, failing to evaluate the evidence for a causal relationship, not appropriately addressing the complex nature of DBP occurrence as a mixture of chemicals, not adequately characterising exposure in space and time, not defining specific health outcomes, not accounting for characteristics of target populations, and not balancing potential risks of DBPs against the health benefits related with drinking water disinfection. Uncertainties were often poorly explained or insufficiently accounted for, and important limitations of data and methods frequently not discussed. Grave conceptual and methodological limitations in study design, as well as erroneous use of available dose–response data, seriously impede the extent to which many of these assessments contribute to understanding the public health implications of exposure to DBPs. In some cases, assessment results may cause unwarranted alarm among the public and potentially lead to poor decisions being made in sourcing, treatment, and provision of drinking water. We recommend that the assessment of public health impacts of DBPs should be viewed as a means of answering real world policy questions relating to drinking water quality, including microbial contaminants; that they should be conducted using the most appropriate and up-to-date data and methods, and that associated uncertainties and limitations should be accounted for using quantitative methods where appropriate.     

MEAD (part II)-Predictions of radioactivity concentrations in the Irish Sea

The predictions from MEAD, a model that simulates the transport of radionuclides in the marine environment, are presented for the Irish Sea. MEAD predictions for (137)Cs and Pu(alpha) are presented following discharges from BNFL Sellafield and the predictions compared to measured data from near the discharge location and further a field in the Irish Sea. The model performs well in most circumstances given the uncertainties involved in both modelling and data collection although some inconsistencies in the predictions are found. MEAD is also compared to other models of radionuclide transport in the Irish Sea.     

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress,uncertainties and research needs

BackgroundClimate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties.ObjectivesWe conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM_2.5-/O₃-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty.MethodsA literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013.DiscussionFifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM_2.5 and O₃ may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM_2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O₃, but projection studies of PM_2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O₃-related mortality.There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced.ConclusionsProjecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM_2.5 and O₃ on mortality in the context of climate change.     

Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Relations between Environmental Right for Citizens and the Right to Use Environmental Resources owned by Company and Enterprise

Company and enterprise have to consume a certain amount of environmental resources during producing process and discharge pollutants into environment. No matter how advanced technologies for management are taken, company and enterprise will unavoidably lower quality of environmental public goods. In fact, current environmental problems and a decline in environmental quality are mainly caused by actions of company and enterprise. Whatever environmental right for citizens is, either as a right i…     

Assessment of prospective foodchain doses from radioactive discharges from BNFL Sellafield

This paper presents the method used by the UK Food Standards Agency (FSA) to assess the potential impact of proposed radioactive discharges from the Sellafield nuclear site on food and determine their acceptability. It explains aspects of a cautious method that has been adopted to reflect the UK government policy and uncertainties related to people's habits with regard to food production and consumption. Two types of ingestion doses are considered in this method: 'possible' and 'probable' doses. The method is specifically applied to Sellafield discharge limits and calculated possible and probable ingestion doses are presented and discussed. Estimated critical group ingestion doses are below the dose limit and constraint set for members of the public. The method may be subject to future amendments to take account of changes in government policy and the outcome of a recent Consultative Exercise on Dose Assessments carried out by FSA. Uncertainties inherent in dose assessments are discussed and quantified wherever possible.     

Hot particles of the Yenisei River flood plain, Russia.

Some high-activity hot particles (HP) were found in the flood plain of the Yenisei River, near the Krasnoyarsk Mining-and-Chemical Combine (MCC), and their radionuclide compositions were determined. The ratios of plutonium and caesium isotopes in the particles are indicative of their reactor origin. The 137Cs activity of the particles amounts to 29,200 kBq/particle, which is higher than the corresponding activities of the fuel particles that formed as a result of the accident at the Chernobyl NPP. All the particles have been divided into two major groups according to the 137Cs/34Cs ratio: in the first group, the 137Cs/134Cs ratio is more than or equal to 3000, and in the second the 137Cs/134Cs ratio is less than or equal to 1000. The particles of the first and the second groups were preliminarily estimated to be formed 30 and 20 years ago, which suggests that there must have been at least two accidents at the MCC reactors, with part of the fuel released into the Yenisei River.     

Areas of uncertainty in comparing risks of energy systems

In the past, the safety of technology has mainly been ensured by deterministic criteria that were based on engineering principles and on experience. Recently, however, it has become necessary to include risk assessment into safety policy. This need arises due to the order of magnitude of possible health and environmental impact from normal operation or accidents, as well as the complexity of modern systems that no longer allow for intuitive understanding of possible accident sequences. Assessment of risks of technical installations is subject to large uncertainties that are caused by lack of data and inadequate quantification and evaluation methods. This paper reviews the main areas of uncertainties with regard to their importance for decisionmaking. Uncertainties are an inherent part of any risk assessment result and can never be avoided. It is thus important to pay particular attention to them including limitations of methods, sensitivity to assumptions about parameters, and site-specific considerations. All this information must be described in great detail so that it can be integrated into the decisionmaking process. If applied in this context, risk assessment is a useful tool for identifying major contributors to risk and effective actions of risk management.     

Relations between Environmental Right for Citizens and the Right to Use Environmental Resources owned by Company and Enterprise

Abstract

From angles of administrative law and private law, the article analyzes relations between environmental right for citizens and the right to use environmental resources owned by company and enterprise and points out three principles to balancing two relations: A principle of equal protection, a principle that general interest is superior to special interest as well as taking an account for special interest, in specific circumstances, for example, in the circumstance that clashes between environmental and economic interests can not be avoided, policy makers can put an emphasis on more important social interest according after considering weight of each interest. Finally, the article reaches a conclusion that China should establish system of environmental right for citizens from legislative and administrative levels so that a harmonious society can be constructed with guarantee.     

Radon, helium and CO2 measurements in soils overlying a former exploited oilfield, Pechelbronn district, Bas-Rhin, France

The Pechelbronn oilfield (Rhine Graben, France), where mining activity ended in the 1960s, has been used for waste disposal for twenty years. Since the wastes are varied, work is underway to identify the discharged materials and their derivatives, as well as to locate and quantify potential discharge sites. Two major goals were assigned to the present work. The first was to identify or refine the location of hidden structures that could facilitate gas emanation up to the surface, by studying soil gas concentrations (mainly ²²²Rn, CO₂, CH₄ and helium) and carbon isotope ratios in the CO₂ phase. The second was devoted to examining, from a health and safety viewpoint, if the use of the oilfield as a waste disposal site might have led to enhanced or modified gas emanation throughout the area.It appeared that CO₂ and ²²²Rn evolution in the whole area were similar, except near some of the faults and fractures that are known through surface mapping and underground observations. These ²²²Rn and CO₂ anomalies made it possible to highlight more emissive zones that are either related to main faults or to secondary fractures acting as migration pathways. In that sense, the CO₂ phase can be used to evaluate ²²²Rn activities distant from tectonic structures but can lead to erroneous evaluations near to gas migration pathways. Dumping of wastes, as well as oil residues, did not appear to have a strong influence on soil gaseous species and emanation. Similarly, enhanced gas migration due to underground galleries and exploitation wells has not been established. Carbon isotope ratios suggested a balance of biological phenomena, despite the high CO₂ contents reached. Other monitored gaseous species (N₂, Ar, H₂ and alkanes), when detected, always showed amounts close to those found subsurface and/or in atmospheric gases.     

Extension of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for long term dose assessment of high level nuclear waste disposal sites to uncertainties in the human behaviour

Biosphere dose conversion factors are computed for the French high-level geological waste disposal concept and to illustrate the combined probabilistic and deterministic approach. Both ¹³⁵Cs and ⁷⁹Se are used as examples. Probabilistic analyses of the system considering all parameters, as well as physical and societal parameters independently, allow quantification of their mutual impact on overall uncertainty. As physical parameter uncertainties decreased, for example with the availability of further experimental and field data, the societal uncertainties, which are less easily constrained, particularly for the long term, become more and more significant. One also has to distinguish uncertainties impacting the low dose portion of a distribution from those impacting the high dose range, the latter having logically a greater impact in an assessment situation. The use of cumulative probability curves allows us to quantify probability variations as a function of the dose estimate, with the ratio of the probability variation (slope of the curve) indicative of uncertainties of different radionuclides. In the case of ¹³⁵Cs with better constrained physical parameters, the uncertainty in human behaviour is more significant, even in the high dose range, where they increase the probability of higher doses. For both radionuclides, uncertainties impact more strongly in the intermediate than in the high dose range. In an assessment context, the focus will be on probabilities of higher dose values. The probabilistic approach can furthermore be used to construct critical groups based on a predefined probability level and to ensure that critical groups cover the expected range of uncertainty.     

Policy,practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: Water and Cryptosporidium

Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other risk management situations.