Uncertainties in human health risk assessment of environmental contaminants: A review and perspective

Addressing uncertainties in human health risk assessment is a critical issue when evaluating the effects of contaminants on public health. A range of uncertainties exist through the source-to-outcome continuum, including exposure assessment, hazard and risk characterisation. While various strategies have been applied to characterising uncertainty, classical approaches largely rely on how to maximise the available resources. Expert judgement, defaults and tools for characterising quantitative uncertainty attempt to fill the gap between data and regulation requirements. The experiences of researching 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) illustrated uncertainty sources and how to maximise available information to determine uncertainties, and thereby provide an ‘adequate’ protection to contaminant exposure. As regulatory requirements and recurring issues increase, the assessment of complex scenarios involving a large number of chemicals requires more sophisticated tools. Recent advances in exposure and toxicology science provide a large data set for environmental contaminants and public health. In particular, biomonitoring information, in vitro data streams and computational toxicology are the crucial factors in the NexGen risk assessment, as well as uncertainties minimisation. Although in this review we cannot yet predict how the exposure science and modern toxicology will develop in the long-term, current techniques from emerging science can be integrated to improve decision-making.     

Risk management for assuring safe drinking water

Millions of people die every year around the world from diarrheal diseases much of which is caused by contaminated drinking water. By contrast, drinking water safety is largely taken for granted by many citizens of affluent nations. The ability to drink water that is delivered into households without fear of becoming ill may be one of the key defining characteristics of developed nations in relation to the majority of the world. Yet there is well-documented evidence that disease outbreaks remain a risk that could be better managed and prevented even in affluent nations. A detailed retrospective analysis of more than 70 case studies of disease outbreaks in 15 affluent nations over the past 30 years provides the basis for much of our discussion [Hrudey, S.E. and Hrudey, E.J. Safe Drinking Water--Lessons from Recent Outbreaks in Affluent Nations. London, UK: IWA Publishing; 2004.]. The insights provided can assist in developing a better understanding within the water industry of the causes of drinking water disease outbreaks, so that more effective preventive measures can be adopted by water systems that are vulnerable. This preventive feature lies at the core of risk management for the provision of safe drinking water.     

Development of quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments when the scientific data base is inadequate

The reasons for developing quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments are discussed along with a method for developing them which involves scientific judgement. In the situation considered here the regulatory needs are ahead of the science, which makes the development of the estimates on uncertainty more difficult, but not impossible. Quantitative estimates for all uncertainties involved in the estimation of risk resulting from exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water are developed and tabulated. By far the largest contribution to the uncertainty in the risk estimates for VOCs in drinking water are due to uncertainty in the extrapolation of the dose-response curve to low levels. The uncertainty due to extrapolation is on the order of 10⁴ and 10⁶. Other components of the analysis may contribute uncertainties of a few orders of magnitude. In general the largest uncertainties are in the toxicological data base and the manipulation of it needed to estimate risk. The data base and manipulations needed to estimate exposure due to VOCs in drinking water were at the more an order to magnitudes in uncertainty.     

The risk assessment–policy gap: An example from the UK contaminated land regime

Risk-based regulation assumes that risk assessment can evaluate risks against policy objectives. However, policy goals are often ambiguous and require risk assessors to interpret them for use in risk assessment. This risk assessment-policy gap stems partly from normative and imprecise policy language but is rooted more fundamentally in society's uncertain expectations for the environment. Until this uncertainty is resolved, the democratic and regulatory effectiveness of risk regulation will be undermined by ad hoc policy decisions abdicated to risk assessors.     

Cyclicity of the European water vole population as a factor of biodiversity in ecosystems of Western Siberia

Population outbreaks of the European water vole (Arvicola amphibius = Arvicola terrestris) in the northern forest-steppe of Western Siberia have been analyzed over more than 100 years. The results show that the period of the A. amphibius population cycle averages 8 years and its amplitude reaches a factor of 10³–10⁴, with population outbreaks leading to large-scale rearrangements in the ecosystem. In particular, the abundance of other species in the murine rodent community decreases with a 1-year lag, while the abundance of myophagous predators increases in the last year of the outbreak or in the next year.     

Bacillus thuringiensis, nucleopolyhedrosis virus,and pheromones: Environmental considerations and uncertainties in large-scale insect control

The mode of action, extent of use, and the current knowledge on environmental fate and toxicity of three biological insecticides [Bacillus thuringiensis (B.t.), nucleopolyhedrosis virus (NPV), and pheromones] are reviewed. Data gaps, environmental uncertainties in any large-scale use, and proposed registration guidelines which may lead to more extensive use are discussed. B.t. disappears rapidly from plant foliage on exposure to sunlight and/or moisture, although it may persist in dry soil for several months or years. Foliar-applied NPVs are also inactivated by sunlight; the halflife on cotton leaves is 20–25 h. In the soil, NPVs may remain active for several years. Pheromones volatilize readily and do not persist in plant or in soil. Limited available data indicate that B.t. and pheromones do not persist in aquatic environments; quantitative data are unavailable for NPVs. Based on bioassay data, the three insecticides exhibit undetectable to low toxicity to nontarget organisms; there are also no reports of human disease or injury due to exposure to these pesticides and no bioaccumulation is expected with normal application. Except for B.t. which has been used in a limited large-scale applications, pest control uses of NPVs and pheromones are still in experimental stages. Areas of uncertainties requiring research and development include potential adverse health and ecological impacts in any large-scale and widespread use and efficacy and cost relative to synthetic chemical pesticides.     

Climate Engagement in a Digital Age: Exploring the Drivers of Participation in Climate Discourse Online in the Context of COP21

Various scholars underscore the importance of public engagement with climate change to successfully respond to the challenges of global warming. However, although online media provide various new opportunities to actively engage in climate discourse so far very little is known about the drivers of this form of engagement. Against this background, this study tested a theoretical model on the effects of media and interpersonal communication on participation in climate discourse online using data from a representative online survey of German citizens (n?=?1392) carried out while COP21. Overall, the results show that receiving information on climate change from social media (social networks, Twitter, blogs), active information seeking online and interpersonal conversations about COP21 strongly encourage participation in climate discourse online. Moreover, results provide relevant insights on the role of interest in climate politics, personal issue relevance and climate scepticism as preconditions of communication effects.     

Visualizing dynamic capabilities as adaptive capacity for municipal water governance

This study seeks to expand empirical research on how municipalities have adapted and innovated (or not) their water systems as a result of climate change. We analyze characteristics of water governance at the municipal scale in Oklahoma, USA. ArcMap 10.3 was used to build a qualitative geographic information system (GIS) based on fieldwork, including interviews and site-observations, to compare dynamic capabilities that lead to innovation in 38 cities in the state. The GIS enables visualization of our digitalized research to understand the interconnections between drivers of innovativeness—the combination of dynamic capabilities and innovation rates—and state of water resource infrastructure in place specific and regional planning contexts. In particular, the GIS takes into consideration income level, the influence of state-level water policy (Water for 2060 Act), water manager certification levels, population, dynamic capabilities, and perceptions of risk and vulnerability to water system change. Digitizing this information provides a diverging perspective on the historical lack of innovation in the public sector, as different socio-cultural, socio-economic, and socio-political contexts occur throughout Oklahoma, a state notorious for its oil centered economy and its climate change deniers. The findings suggest that innovativeness is directly related to dynamic capabilities and indirectly related to population size, income level, and the educational backgrounds of water decision-makers. The visualizations also show that some cities have surplus capacity for adaptation, while others were able to more efficiently turn capacity into water management innovations. Seeing representations of water governance success and failure in communities affords the opportunity to educate citizens and decision-makers to adapt water infrastructures to the effects of climate change, showcasing the utility of digitalization in a quest for sustainable solutions.     

Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data

Although the terrestrial carbon budget is of key importance for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, little is known on the effects of management and natural disturbances on historical carbon stocks at the regional scale. We reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation carbon stocks and flows in forests across the past 100 years for a valley in the eastern Swiss Prealps using quantitative and qualitative information from forest management plans. The excellent quality of the historical information makes it possible to link dynamics in growing stocks with high-resolution time series for natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The results of the historical reconstruction are compared with modelled potential natural vegetation. Forest carbon stock at the beginning of the twentieth century was substantially reduced compared to natural conditions as a result of large scale clearcutting lasting until the late nineteenth century. Recovery of the forests from this unsustainable exploitation and systematic forest management were the main drivers of a strong carbon accumulation during almost the entire twentieth century. In the 1990s two major storm events and subsequent bark beetle infestations significantly reduced stocks back to the levels of the mid-twentieth century. The future potential for further carbon accumulation was found to be strongly limited, as the potential for further forest expansion in this valley is low and forest properties seem to approach equilibrium with the natural disturbance regime. We conclude that consistent long-term observations of carbon stocks and their changes provide rich information on the historical range of variability of forest ecosystems. Such historical information improves our ability to assess future changes in carbon stocks. Further, the information is vital for better parameterization and initialization of dynamic regional scale vegetation models and it provides important background for appropriate management decisions.     

Exposure assessment of the pharmaceutical diclofenac based on long-term measurements of the aquatic input

Although various single-concentration measurements of the pharmaceutical diclofenac are available in literature, detailed information on the mass flux in the aquatic environment is often missing. Therefore, the overall load of diclofenac was obtained by recording each concentration in nine effluents of sewage treatment plants (STP) and at three river sites located in the area of the river Main (Germany) over a time period of six weeks.In STP effluents, concentrations of up to 2200 ng/L were obtained. In combination with flow rates and connected population an average specific load per capita and day of 0.28 mg (+/? 0.11 mg) diclofenac reaches the receiving water course. This average specific load per capita is an expressive parameter to assess main diclofenac exposure to the aquatic environment avoiding uncertainties of estimated data commonly used in exposure assessment. Accordingly, predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) of 140 ng/L for a realistic worst case scenario and 2 to 52 ng/L based on water quality modeling were derived. Since concentrations of up to 140 ng/L were observed in surface water, the obtained PEC is in perfect agreement with measured concentrations. Hence, comparing the PEC with published predicted no effect concentrations (PNEC), chronic adverse effects in fish populations may occur.     

Assessing the human health impacts of exposure to disinfection by-products — A critical review of concepts and methods

Understanding the public health implications of chemical contamination of drinking water is important for societies and their decision-makers. The possible population health impacts associated with exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs) are of particular interest due to their potential carcinogenicity and their widespread occurrence as a result of treatments employed to control waterborne infectious disease.We searched the literature for studies that have attempted quantitatively to assess population health impacts and health risks associated with exposure to DBPs in drinking water. We summarised and evaluated these assessments in terms of their objectives, methods, treatment of uncertainties, and interpretation and communication of results.In total we identified 40 studies matching our search criteria. The vast majority of studies presented estimates of generic cancer and non-cancer risks based on toxicological data and methods that were designed with regulatory, health-protective purposes in mind, and therefore presented imprecise and biased estimates of health impacts. Many studies insufficiently addressed the numerous challenges to DBP risk assessment, failing to evaluate the evidence for a causal relationship, not appropriately addressing the complex nature of DBP occurrence as a mixture of chemicals, not adequately characterising exposure in space and time, not defining specific health outcomes, not accounting for characteristics of target populations, and not balancing potential risks of DBPs against the health benefits related with drinking water disinfection. Uncertainties were often poorly explained or insufficiently accounted for, and important limitations of data and methods frequently not discussed. Grave conceptual and methodological limitations in study design, as well as erroneous use of available dose–response data, seriously impede the extent to which many of these assessments contribute to understanding the public health implications of exposure to DBPs. In some cases, assessment results may cause unwarranted alarm among the public and potentially lead to poor decisions being made in sourcing, treatment, and provision of drinking water. We recommend that the assessment of public health impacts of DBPs should be viewed as a means of answering real world policy questions relating to drinking water quality, including microbial contaminants; that they should be conducted using the most appropriate and up-to-date data and methods, and that associated uncertainties and limitations should be accounted for using quantitative methods where appropriate.     

Water demand of central pivot-irrigated areas in Bahia,Brazil: management of water resources applied to sustainable production

When performed without technical criteria, the rapid expansion of irrigated agricultural frontiers can result in overexploitation of water, causing worrying impacts on the balance of agroecosystems. This study proposes a model applied to the state of Bahia, to estimate the water demand of areas irrigated by a central pivot, in order to contribute to information that will subsidize the inspection and planning of water resources in the promotion of sustainable agriculture. The irrigated areas were identified and measured by photointerpretation using orbital images from the Landsat-8 satellite. With a historical series of data, the reference evapotranspiration was calculated and monthly water balance was elaborated. The data obtained were spatialized by kriging, and with punctual values of water deficit (mm), the water demand of the irrigated perimeter of the equipment was estimated. The results were described considering strategic planning units, proposed from municipalities, hydrographic basins and biomes. A total of 4075 pivots were quantified, covering an irrigated area of 265,896.30 ha and with an average annual consumption of 1,333,473,208.02 m³ of water. Areas of high demand were identified, especially in the western region of Bahia, which includes the hydrographic basin of the São Francisco River and the Cerrado biome, concentrating 80.85% and 75.47% of the state water demand for pivots, respectively. Considering possible points of water vulnerability and continuity of this expansion, the results provide the primary information needed to encourage the adoption of public policies aimed at the management of water resources. The study method proposes guidelines that condition the application in any region of interest in the world.

Graphical abstract

     

Water management and aquatic ecosystem services of a tropical reservoir (Itaparica,São Francisco,Brazil)

Reservoirs have a wide variety of uses that have led to frequent conflicts over ecological conservation and contamination, especially as land management has intensified. Oligotrophication must be implemented in numerous tropical reservoirs that experience advanced eutrophication to maintain aquatic ecosystem functions. To quantify impacts on ecosystem functions and to develop an adaptive management policy, multiple studies have been conducted on the Itaparica Reservoir, São Francisco River, in the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil. Here, we add to that existing body of knowledge through investigating how nutrient accumulation is affected by water exchange between the main river flow and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Operational water-level fluctuations in the reservoir create large desiccated littoral areas that release high amounts of nutrients when they are rewetted. In particular, water-level variation promotes proliferation of Egeria densa, a noxious weed, thus elevating trophic levels of the Itaparica Reservoir and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Analysis with a P efficiency model determined 25 μg P L^?1 to be the critical concentration and further indicated that the critical load in both bodies of water have been exceeded. Moreover, intensive fish aquaculture using net cages has led to further overtaxing of the reservoir. We conclude that an effective ecological reservoir management policy must involve oligotrophication, harvesting of noxious water weeds for use as soil amendment in agriculture or biogas production, “blue” aquaculture, and limiting hydroelectric power production based on current water availability.     

Knowledge and information needs of adaptation policy-makers: a European study

Across Europe, national governments have started to strategically plan adaptation to climate change. Making adaptation decisions is difficult in the light of uncertainties and the complexity of adaptation problems. Already large amounts of research results on climate impacts and adaptive measures are available, and more are produced and need to be mediated across the boundary between science and policy. Both researchers and policy-makers have started to intensify efforts to coproduce knowledge that is valuable to both communities, particularly in the context of climate change adaptation. In this paper, we present results from a study of adaptation governance and information needs, comparing eight European countries. We identify sources and means for the retrieval of information as well as gaps and problems with the knowledge provided by scientists and analyzed whether these appear to be contingent on the point in the policy-making cycle where countries are. We find that in this early phase of adaptation planning, the quality of the definition of needs, the way uncertainty is dealt with, and the quality of science–policy interaction are indeed contingent on the stage of adaptation planning, while information needs and sources are not. We conclude that a well-developed science–policy interface is of key importance for effective decision-making for adaptation.     

Climate change and crop diversity: farmers’ perceptions and adaptation on the Bolivian Altiplano

Crop diversity is central to traditional risk management practices on the Andean Altiplano and may find renewed importance in adapting to climate change. This study explored the role of crop diversity in farmers’ adaptation actions in eight Aymara communities on the northern Bolivian Altiplano. Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, including multifactor analysis and a community resilience self-assessment, we investigated how farmers’ use of diversity in adaptation is related to their perceptions of crop and variety tolerances and other environmental, social, and economic factors. Few crops and varieties were perceived as tolerant to increasingly intense and unpredictable drought, frost, hail, and pest and disease outbreaks. Some local crops and varieties were perceived as vulnerable to emerging conditions (e.g. oca, papalisa, isaño), whereas bitter potatoes and wild relatives of quinoa and cañahua were perceived as highly stress tolerant and provide food in harsh periods. A total 19% of households surveyed (N = 193) had introduced new crops or varieties—often disease resistant or early maturing—as an adaptive action. Introduction of commercial crops was a common adaptation action, reflecting farmers’ response to warming temperatures and changing economic opportunities, but greater sensitivity of the introduced crops may cause maladaptation. Despite intensification of cropping systems, households continue to maintain a median four potato varieties with different tolerance traits, yet this risk management practice was not perceived as adaptation. Strengthening resilience will require a combination of actions, including maintaining and expanding crop portfolios and restoring soil and ecosystem health, using both traditional and innovative approaches.     

Perfluoroalkyl acids in the Canadian environment: Multi-media assessment of current status and trends

In Canada, perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) have been the focus of several monitoring programs and research and surveillance studies. Here, we integrate recent data and perform a multi-media assessment to examine the current status and ongoing trends of PFAAs in Canada. Concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), and other long-chain perfluorocarboxylates (PFCAs) in air, water, sediment, fish, and birds across Canada are generally related to urbanization, with elevated concentrations observed around cities, especially in southern Ontario. PFOS levels in water, fish tissue, and bird eggs were below their respective Draft Federal Environmental Quality Guidelines, suggesting there is low potential for adverse effects to the environment/organisms examined. However, PFOS in fish and bird eggs tended to exceed guidelines for the protection of mammalian and avian consumers, suggesting a potential risk to their wildlife predators, although wildlife population health assessments are needed to determine whether negative impacts are actually occurring. Long-term temporal trends of PFOS in suspended sediment, sediment cores, Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush), and Herring Gull (Larus argentatus) eggs collected from Lake Ontario increased consistently from the start of data collection until the 1990s. However, after this time, the trends varied by media, with concentrations stabilizing in Lake Trout and Herring Gull eggs, and decreasing and increasing in suspended sediment and the sediment cores, respectively. For PFCAs, concentrations in suspended sediment, sediment cores, and Herring Gulls generally increased from the start of data collection until present and concentrations in Lake Trout increased until the late 1990s and subsequently stabilized. A multimedia comparison of PFAA profiles provided evidence that unexpected patterns in biota of some of the lakes were due to unique source patterns rather than internal lake processes. High concentrations of PFAAs in the leachate and air of landfill sites, in the wastewater influent/effluent, biosolids, and air at wastewater treatment plants, and in indoor air and dust highlight the waste sector and current-use products (used primarily indoors) as ongoing sources of PFAAs to the Canadian environment. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of integrating data from different media. Simultaneous evaluation of spatial and temporal trends in multiple media allows inferences that would be impossible with data on only one medium. As such, more co-ordination among monitoring sites for different media is suggested for future sampling, especially at the northern sites. We emphasize the importance of continued monitoring of multiple-media for determining future responses of environmental PFAA concentrations to voluntary and regulatory actions.     

Water information: what is it good for? The use of information in transboundary water management

Consistent and relevant information on the status of water systems is indispensable for rational and cost-effective water management. This statement has general validity for all types of river basins, but is particularly relevant for transboundary water regions. Information is used to support decision-making and to evaluate the effects of water resources management decisions. Information production however lags behind developments in water management, which becomes clear from the fact that information still focuses on ecological components of water bodies and largely ignores the importance of socio-economic data stemming from human activities taking place in the river basin. Production of improved information is hindered by strong boundaries between different disciplines that are not easily overcome. Moreover, consideration of information needs and the goals of information dissemination prior to producing information is insufficient and the relevant actors are often reluctant to participate in these processes as they are time consuming. Differences in institutional behaviour also hinder cooperation between institutions, while organisational structures are insufficiently tuned to the needs of the external environment. All these issues hinder the use of information as the basis for decision-making. This paper provides an overview of relevant aspects of information from a broad range of perspectives and establishes the need for changes in the production and use of environmental information in support of water management. The paper is largely based on the outcomes of a closed multi-disciplinary specialist meeting on the role and use of environmental data and information in transboundary water contexts held in Arendal, Norway, September 2002.     

Co-evolution of wetland landscapes,flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).     

Considerations in deriving quantitative cancer criteria for inorganic arsenic exposure via inhalation

The inhalation unit risk (IUR) that currently exists in the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (US EPA's) Integrated Risk Information System was developed in 1984 based on studies examining the relationship between respiratory cancer and arsenic exposure in copper smelters from two US locations: the copper smelter in Anaconda, Montana, and the American Smelting And Refining COmpany (ASARCO) smelter in Tacoma, Washington. Since US EPA last conducted its assessment, additional data have become available from epidemiology and mechanistic studies. In addition, the California Air Resources Board, Texas Commission of Environmental Quality, and Dutch Expert Committee on Occupational Safety have all conducted new risk assessments. All three analyses, which calculated IURs based on respiratory/lung cancer mortality, generated IURs that are lower (i.e., less restrictive) than the current US EPA value of 4.3 × 10^− 3 (μg/m³)^− 1. The IURs developed by these agencies, which vary more than 20-fold, are based on somewhat different studies and use different methodologies to address uncertainties in the underlying datasets. Despite these differences, all were developed based on a cumulative exposure metric assuming a low-dose linear dose–response relationship. In this paper, we contrast and compare the analyses conducted by these agencies and critically evaluate strengths and limitations inherent in the data and methodologies used to develop quantitative risk estimates. In addition, we consider how these data could be best used to assess risk at much lower levels of arsenic in air, such as those experienced by the general public. Given that the mode of action for arsenic supports a threshold effect, and epidemiological evidence suggests that the arsenic concentration in air is a reliable predictor of lung/respiratory cancer risk, we developed a quantitative cancer risk analysis using a nonlinear threshold model. Applying a nonlinear model to occupational data, we established points of departure based on both cumulative exposure (μg/m³-years) to arsenic and arsenic concentration (μg/m³) via inhalation. Using these values, one can assess the lifetime risk of respiratory cancer mortality associated with ambient air concentrations of arsenic for the general US population.     

Estrogenic activity in extracts and exudates of cyanobacteria and green algae

Here is presented some of the first information on interactions of compounds produced by cyanobacteria and green algae with estrogen receptor signaling. Estrogenic potency of aqueous extracts and exudates (culture spent media with extracellular products) of seven species of cyanobacteria (10 different laboratory strains) and two algal species were assessed by use of in vitro trans-activation assays. Compounds produced by cyanobacteria and algae, and in particular those excreted from the cells, were estrogenic. Most exudates were estrogenic with potencies expressed at 50% of the maximum response under control of the estrogen receptor ranging from 0.2 to 7.2 ng 17β-estradiol (E₂) equivalents (EEQ)/L. The greatest estrogenic potency was observed for exudates of Microcystis aerigunosa, a common species that forms water blooms. Aqueous extracts of both green algae, but only one species of cyanobacteria (Aphanizomenon gracile) elicited significant estrogenicity with EEQ ranging from 15 to 280 ng 17β-estradiol (E₂)/g dry weight. Scenedesmus quadricauda exudates and extracts of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae were antagonistic to the ER when coexposed to E₂. The EEQ potency was not correlated with concentrations of cyanotoxins, such as microcystin and cylindrospermopsin, which suggests that the EEQ was comprised of other compounds. The study demonstrates some differences between the estrogenic potency of aqueous extracts prepared from the same species, but of different origin, while the effects of exudates were comparable within species. The observed estrogenic potencies are important namely in relation to the possible mass expansion of cyanobacteria and release of the active compounds into surrounding water.