Modeling the dynamic changes in concentrations of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) in Tianjin region from 1953 to 2020

A level IV fugacity model was used to simulate the dynamic changes of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) concentrations in environmental media in Tianjin, China. A similar model (level III) was previously used and validated under steady state conditions; this paper explores its dynamic behavior. Application of the level IV fugacity model has been validated using independently observed gamma-HCH concentrations in various media during the early 1980s and during 2001. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using coefficient-of-variation normalized sensitivity coefficients. The model was also subject to uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. It was found that concentrations of gamma-HCH reached within 95% of their steady-state levels in all media after less than 15 years. Around one order-of-magnitude decreases in gamma-HCH concentrations in various media occurred between 1993 and 2001. We project that gamma-HCH concentrations will decrease another 1.7-1.9 orders of magnitude to reach 1.1 (0.9-1.2) x 10(-14), 2.7 (2.5-3.0) x 10(-10), 1.2 (1.1-1.3) x 10(-7), and 6.1 (5.4-6.8) x 10(-8) mol/m(3), in air, water, soil, and sediment, respectively, by 2020. The sensitivities and true uncertainty of the model are discussed.     

The challenges of marine spatial planning in the Arctic: Results from the ACCESS programme

Marine spatial planning is increasingly used to manage the demands on marine areas, both spatially and temporally, where several different users may compete for resources or space, to ensure that development is as sustainable as possible. Diminishing sea-ice coverage in the Arctic will allow for potential increases in economic exploitation, and failure to plan for cross-sectoral management could have negative economic and environmental results. During the ACCESS programme, a marine spatial planning tool was developed for the Arctic, enabling the integrated study of human activities related to hydrocarbon exploitation, shipping and fisheries, and the possible environmental impacts, within the context of the next 30 years of climate change. In addition to areas under national jurisdiction, the Arctic Ocean contains a large area of high seas. Resources and ecosystems extend across political boundaries. We use three examples to highlight the need for transboundary planning and governance to be developed at a regional level.     

The potential inhalation hazard posed by dioxin contaminated soil.

Mathematical models and field data were used to estimate the airborne concentrations of 2,3,7,8 tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) vapor and particulates which could originate from soil containing 100 ppb TCDD. The model of Jury et al. (1983) and the box approach were used to predict the concentration of TCDD vapor from soil. The daily soil temperature was assumed to vary between 20 degrees C and 40 degrees C for six months of the year to account for diurnal warming and cooling of the soil. The depth of contamination was 50 mm. The model predicted average vapor flux rate for TCDD from soil for this temperature profile was 1.5 x 10(-14) mg/sec-cm2. The upper-bound estimates of the TCDD vapor concentration on-site at 40 degrees C and 20 degrees C were 2.5 pg/m3 and 1.8 pg/m3, respectively. Using a recently proposed unit risk value (URV) of 2.9 x 10(-6) (pg/m3)-1 [slope factor = 1.0 x 10(-14) (mg/kg-day)-1], the maximum plausible cancer risk is about 1 x 10(-5). If one accepts the EPA URV of 3.3 x 10(-5) (pg/m3)-1 (slope factor = 1.2 x 10(-13) (mg/kg-day)-1), then the risk is no greater than 1 x 10(4). A maximum TCDD vapor concentration of 0.21 pg/m3 was predicted 100 meters downwind (for summer days). The on-site concentration of TCDD in suspended particulate was estimated to be 1.4 pg/m3 (based on a TSP level of 0.07 mg/m3 from site soil). For persons exposed to vapors and particulates about 100 meters off-site, the exposure was about 10-fold less.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Process-diagnostic patterns of chlorobiphenyl congeners in two radiochronologically characterized sediment cores from the northern Baffin Bay.

Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) patterns were interpreted in two radioisotopically constrained sediment cores from the Arctic ocean in order to seek clues about their large-scale environmental fates. Low but clearly measurable fluxes of individual PCB congeners were observed in deeper layer sediments, corresponding to the past 170 years, in a single dated core from the Baffin Bay shelf. Fluxes of the dominant individual congeners in the surface sediments were 20-100 pg m(-2) d(-1). Combining these data with the sediment data from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, it appears that the PCB distribution in Arctic surface sediments is governed by the organic carbon (OC) content of the sediments. The historical development of the PCB congener fingerprint suggests that the modern sediments are enriched in medium-chlorinated congeners, implying that there are at least two significant, but distinctly different, sink processes acting on the PCB pool. The relative abundance of light-to-heavy congeners, in mid-shelf marine sediments of similar ages, between 40 degrees N and 76 degrees N latitude suggests a northward dilution of PCBs which is stronger attenuated for heavier congeners, consistent with a temperature-driven global fractionation process. The significant presence of PCB in historical archives pre-dating the organochlorine society, as observed in this and several previous studies, awaits a fuller explanation.     

Climate change,fisheries management and fishing aptitude affecting spatial and temporal distributions of the Barents Sea cod fishery

Climate change is expected to influence spatial and temporal distributions of fish stocks. The aim of this paper is to compare climate change impact on a fishery with other factors impacting the performance of fishing fleets. The fishery in question is the Northeast Arctic cod fishery, a well-documented fishery where data on spatial and temporal distributions are available. A cellular automata model is developed for the purpose of mimicking possible distributional patterns and different management alternatives are studied under varying assumptions on the fleets’ fishing aptitude. Fisheries management and fishing aptitude, also including technological development and local knowledge, turn out to have the greatest impact on the spatial distribution of the fishing effort, when comparing the IPCC’s SRES A1B scenario with repeated sequences of the current environmental situation over a period of 45 years. In both cases, the highest profits in the simulation period of 45 years are obtained at low exploitation levels and moderate fishing aptitude.     

Modelling the spatial distribution of ammonia emissions in the UK

Ammonia emissions (NH3) are characterised by a high spatial variability at a local scale. When modelling the spatial distribution of NH3 emissions, it is important to provide robust emission estimates, since the model output is used to assess potential environmental impacts, e.g. exceedance of critical loads. The aim of this study was to provide a new, updated spatial NH3 emission inventory for the UK for the year 2000, based on an improved modelling approach and the use of updated input datasets. The AENEID model distributes NH3 emissions from a range of agricultural activities, such as grazing and housing of livestock, storage and spreading of manures, and fertilizer application, at a 1-km grid resolution over the most suitable landcover types. The results of the emission calculation for the year 2000 are analysed and the methodology is compared with a previous spatial emission inventory for 1996.     

What environmental fate processes have the strongest influence on a completely persistent organic chemical's accumulation in the Arctic?

Fate and transport models can be used to identify and classify chemicals that have the potential to undergo long-range transport and to accumulate in remote environments. For example, the Arctic contamination potential (ACP), calculated with the help of the zonally averaged global transport model Globo-POP, is a numerical indicator of an organic chemical's potential to be transported to polar latitudes and to accumulate in the Arctic ecosystem. It is important to evaluate how robust such model predictions are and in particular to appreciate to what extent they may depend on a specific choice of environmental model input parameters. Here, we employ a recently developed graphical method based on partitioning maps to comprehensively explore the sensitivity of ACP estimates to variations in environmental parameters. Specifically, the changes in the ACP of persistent organic contaminants to changes in each environmental input parameter are plotted as a function of the two-dimensional hypothetical “chemical space” defined by two of the three equilibrium partition coefficients between air, water and octanol. Based on the patterns obtained, this chemical space is then segmented into areas of similar parameter sensitivities and superimposed with areas of high default ACP and elevated environmental bioaccumulation potential within the Arctic. Sea ice cover, latitudinal temperature gradient, and macro-diffusive atmospheric transport coefficients, and to a lesser extent precipitation rate, display the largest influence on ACP-values for persistent organic contaminants, including those that may bioaccumulate within the polar marine ecosystems. These environmental characteristics are expected to be significantly impacted by global climate change processes, highlighting the need to explore more explicitly how climate change may affect the long-range transport and accumulation behavior of persistent organic pollutants.     

The significance of PCBs in the atmosphere of the southern hemisphere

Air monitoring stations were set up at 2 sites in the southern hemisphere--Moody Brook, Falkland Island (51 degrees 25' S, 57 degrees 56' W) and Halley, Research Station, Antarctica (75 degrees 35' S, 26 degrees 30' W). PCBs were monitored at the stations throughout 1999. Highest concentrations were observed when temperatures were greater. In general, concentrations were greater at Moody Brook than at Halley, although the difference in concentrations between sites was less for more chlorinated congeners. Air concentrations at both sites were compared with samples collected nearby over-water. Over water air concentrations were found to be greater than over land air concentrations. Concentrations were also compared with literature data for air concentrations at a remote site in the Canadian Arctic. Atmospheric concentrations of tri-chlorinated biphenyls were found to be approximately double those reported for Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic, whilst concentrations in samples from Antarctica were very similar to those found in the high Arctic. Most other PCBs were a factor of 2-4 greater in the Canadian Arctic.     

Catalytic effect of soil colloids on the reaction between CrVI and p-methoxyphenol

Adsorption of CrVI and p-methoxyphenol (PMP) on soil colloids at different pH media was studied. The resulting k1 and n of 1.89 x 10(2) and 0.53 (r2 = 0.99) and k2 and b of 0.13 and 1.25 x 10(3) (r2 = 0.96) were obtained from Freundlich (Q = k1Caqn) and Langmuir [Q = k2bCaq/(1 + k2Caq)] simulation equations, respectively, for CrVI adsorption on soil colloids (pH 4.20). The adsorption of PMP on soil colloids in pH 5.72 media was simulated by five different equations and the results indicated that the Fritz-Schluender one (r2 = 1.00) was the most suitable among them. Adsorption quantity of CrVI and PMP on colloids increased with increasing acidity in the pH range of 3.5-9.0. Study of CrVI adsorption kinetics indicated that the adsorption equilibrium of CrVI was reached rapidly within 2 h. In pure aqueous solution, CrVI reduction by PMP was observed only when the media's pH was lower than 4.0. Oxidation and reduction reaction between CrVI and p-methoxyphenol obviously occurred when soil colloids were involved in this system, even at pH > or = 7.0, which strongly suggested that minerals in soil colloids acted as catalysts to speed the reaction of CrVI and PMP. The oxidized product of PMP by CrVI, extracted by chloroform in acid media and analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, was identified as benzoquinone. The reaction included two steps of one electron process.     

Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.     

Characterization of controlled-release KMnO4 (CRP) barrier system for groundwater remediation: a pilot-scale flow-tank study

Release and spreading of permanganate (MnO(4)(-)) in the well-based controlled-release potassium permanganate (KMnO(4)) barrier system (CRP system) was investigated by conducting column release tests, model simulations, soil oxidant demand (SOD) analyses, and pilot-scale flow-tank experiments. A large flow tank (L x W x D=8m x 4m x 3m) was constructed. Pilot-scale CRP pellets (OD x L=0.05 m x1.5m; n=110) were manufactured by mixing approximately 198 kg of KMnO(4) powders with paraffin wax and silica sands in cylindrical moulds. The CRP system (L x W x D=3m x 4m x 1.5m) comprising 110 delivery wells in three discrete barriers was constructed in the flow tank. Natural sands (organic carbon content=0.18%; SOD=3.7-11 g MnO(4)(-)kg(-1)) were used as porous media. Column release tests and model simulations indicated that the CRP system could continuously release MnO(4)(-) over several years, with slowly decreasing release rates of 2.5 kg d(-1) (day one), 109 g d(-1) (day 100), 58 g d(-1) (year one), 22 g d(-1) (year five), and 12 g d(-1) (year 10). Mean MnO(4)(-) concentrations within the CRP system ranged from 0.5 to 6 mg l(-1) during the 42 days of testing period. The continuously releasing MnO(4)(-) was gradually removed by SOD limiting the length of MnO(4)(-) zone in the porous media. These data suggested that the CRP system could create persistent and confined oxidation zone in the subsurface. Through development of advanced tools for describing agent transport and facilitating lateral agent spreading, the CRP system could provide new approach for long-term in situ treatment of contaminant plumes in groundwater.     

BETR-World: a geographically explicit model of chemical fate: application to transport of alpha-HCH to the Arctic

The Berkeley-Trent (BETR)-World model, a 25 compartment, geographically explicit fugacity-based model is described and applied to evaluate the transport of chemicals from temperate source regions to receptor regions (such as the Arctic). The model was parameterized using GIS and an array of digital data on weather, oceans, freshwater, vegetation and geo-political boundaries. This version of the BETR model framework includes modification of atmospheric degradation rates by seasonally variable hydroxyl radical concentrations and temperature. Degradation rates in all other compartments vary with seasonally changing temperature. Deposition to the deep ocean has been included as a loss mechanism. A case study was undertaken for alpha-HCH. Dynamic emission scenarios were estimated for each of the 25 regions. Predicted environmental concentrations showed good agreement with measured values for the northern regions in air, and fresh and oceanic water and with the results from a previous model of global chemical fate. Potential for long-range transport and deposition to the Arctic region was assessed using a Transfer Efficiency combined with estimated emissions. European regions and the Orient including China have a high potential to contribute alpha-HCH contamination in the Arctic due to high rates of emission in these regions despite low Transfer Efficiencies. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the performance and reliability of the model is strongly influenced by parameters controlling degradation rates.     

Order-of-magnitude increase of Hg in Norwegian peat profiles since the outset of industrial activity in Europe

Peat cores from six ombrotrophic bogs at different latitudes in Norway (58 degrees N-69 degrees N) were analysed for Hg by atomic fluorescence spectrometry. In all cases a smooth decrease of Hg with depth was observed down to 15-20 cm. At greater depths Hg showed a relatively constant level of the order of 10% of that in the peat surface layer. In the surface peat Hg concentrations exhibit moderate variation with latitude. The pre-industrial levels of Hg in the peat correspond to a net annual Hg accumulation of 0.3-0.9 microgm(-2). The Hg accumulation over the last 100 years is about 15 times higher on average than the pre-industrial level. The present work supports the view that a major part of the present atmospheric Hg in the Northern Hemisphere is of anthropogenic origin. It is speculated that the comparatively high Hg contemporary accumulation rates observed at the And?ya bog on 69 degrees N may be related to the Arctic springtime depletion of Hg.     

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in Arctic environments: indicator contaminants for assessing local and remote anthropogenic sources in a pristine ecosystem in change

A first review on occurrence and distribution of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) is presented. The literature survey conducted here was initiated by the current Assessment of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). This first review on the occurrence and environmental profile of PPCPs in the Arctic identified the presence of 110 related substances in the Arctic environment based on the reports from scientific publications, national and regional assessments and surveys, as well as academic research studies (i.e., PhD theses). PPCP residues were reported in virtually all environmental compartments from coastal seawater to high trophic level biota. For Arctic environments, domestic and municipal wastes as well as sewage are identified as primary release sources. However, the absence of modern waste water treatment plants (WWTPs), even in larger settlements in the Arctic, is resulting in relatively high release rates for selected PPCPs into the receiving Arctic (mainly) aquatic environment. Pharmaceuticals are designed with specific biochemical functions as a part of an integrated therapeutically procedure. This biochemical effect may cause unwanted environmental toxicological effects on non-target organisms when the compound is released into the environment. In the Arctic environments, pharmaceutical residues are released into low to very low ambient temperatures mainly into aqueous environments. Low biodegradability and, thus, prolonged residence time must be expected for the majority of the pharmaceuticals entering the aquatic system. The environmental toxicological consequence of the continuous PPCP release is, thus, expected to be different in the Arctic compared to the temperate regions of the globe. Exposure risks for Arctic human populations due to consumption of contaminated local fish and invertebrates or through exposure to resistant microbial communities cannot be excluded. However, the scientific results reported and summarized here, published in 23 relevant papers and reports (see Table S1 and following references), must still be considered as indication only. Comprehensive environmental studies on the fate, environmental toxicology, and distribution profiles of pharmaceuticals applied in high volumes and released into the Nordic environment under cold Northern climate conditions should be given high priority by national and international authorities.     

Future distribution of Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus in Sweden under climate change: effects of temperature, lake size and species interactions

Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961-1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95?% of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73?% of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.     

Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action

Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1-0.2 degrees C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 degrees C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5-1 degrees C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 degrees C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2-2.5 degrees C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 degrees C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modem society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO2 emissions while minimizing growth in CO2 emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed.     

Uncertainties and recommendations

An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate. However, although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines, it is weak in others. Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies, our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties. The assessment is based on a range of approaches that each have uncertainties, and on data sets that are often far from complete. Uncertainties arise from methodologies and conceptual frameworks, from unpredictable surprises, from lack of validation of models, and from the use of particular scenarios, rather than predictions, of future greenhouse gas emissions and climates. Recommendations to reduce the uncertainties are wide-ranging and relate to all disciplines within the assessment. However, a repeated theme is the critical importance of achieving an adequate spatial and long-term coverage of experiments, observations and monitoring of environmental changes and their impacts throughout the sparsely populated and remote region that is the Arctic.     

Spatial variability of PM2.5 in urban areas in the United States

Data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Aerometric Information Retrieval System (now known as the Air Quality System) database for 1999 and 2000 have been used to characterize the spatial variability of concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 microg (PM2.5) in 27 urban areas across the United States. Different measures were used to quantify the degree of uniformity of PM2.5 concentrations in the urban areas characterized. It was observed that PM2.5 concentrations varied to differing degrees in the urban areas examined. Analyses of several urban areas in the Southeast indicated high correlations between site pairs and spatial uniformity in concentration fields. Considerable spatial variation was found in other regions, especially in the West. Even within urban areas in which all site pairs were highly correlated, a variable degree of heterogeneity in PM2.5 concentrations was found. Thus, even though concentrations at pairs of sites were highly correlated, their concentrations were not necessarily the same. These findings indicate that the potential for exposure misclassification errors in time-series epidemiologic studies exists.     

Developing a circumpolar programme for the monitoring of Arctic terrestrial biodiversity

The Arctic is undergoing biological and environmental changes, and a coordinated effort to monitor is critical to detect these changes. The Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme (CBMP) of the Arctic Council biodiversity working group, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), has developed pan-Arctic biodiversity monitoring plans that aims to improve the ability to detect and report on long-term changes. Whilst introducing this special issue, this paper also presents the making of the terrestrial monitoring plan and discusses how the plan follows the steps required for an adaptive and ecosystem-based monitoring programme. In this article, we discuss how data on key findings can be used to inform circumpolar and global assessments, including the State of the Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Report, which will be the first terrestrial assessment made by the CBMP. Key findings, advice for future monitoring and lessons learned will be used in planning next steps of pan-Arctic coordinated monitoring.     

A GIS-based multimedia watershed model: development and application

A multimedia model was developed using publicly available geographical information system (GIS) data, chemical release information and local monitoring networks to assess the fate of trichloroethene (TCE) within the Passaic River Watershed. Seven environmental media, air, water, sediment, surface soil, terrestrial vegetation, root zone soil and vadose zone soil, were modeled in this study along with their sub-compartments. The Passaic River Watershed is described using the NJDEP geographical information system (GIS) resources, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the United States Soil Conservation Services (US SCS) soil data. The introduction of spatial resolution to a multimedia, unsteady state model is performed in this work, and represents an important step in expanding the use of equilibrium models to provide far reaching information on the fate of toxic contaminants within a given environmental unit. The spatial representation of cross-boundary fluxes was successfully demonstrated with the use of sub-watershed as an environmental unit and the direct assessment of TCE for each of the 11 sub-watersheds that make up the Passaic River Basin in northern New Jersey. Important data gaps identified during the development of this model include the lack of comprehensive monitoring data on organic contaminants, and non-uniformity among available physical environmental data from different government agencies.