GIS-based statistical model for the prediction of flood hazard susceptibility

At present, flood is the most significant environmental problem in the entire world. In this work, flood susceptibility (FS) analysis has been done in the Dwarkeswar River basin of Bengal basin, India. Fourteen flood causative factors extracted from different datasets like DEM, satellite images, geology, soil and rainfall data have been considered to predict FS. Three heuristic models and one statistical model fuzzy Logic (FL), frequency ratio (FR), multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and logistic regression (LR) have been used. The validating datasets are used to validate these models. The result shows that 68.71%, 68.7%, 60.56% and 48.51% area of the basin is under the moderate to very high FS by the MCDA, FR, FL and LR, respectively. The ROC curve with AUC analysis has shown that the accuracy level of the LR model (AUC?=?0.916) is very much successful to predict the flood. The rest of the models like FL, MCDA and FR (AUC?=?0.893, 0.857 and 0.835, respectively) have lesser accuracy than the LR model. The elevation was the most dominating factor with coefficient value of 19.078 in preparation of the FS according to the LR model. The outcome of this study can be implemented by local and state authority to minimize the flood hazard.

     

Running Out of Water! Developing a Message Typology and Evaluating Message Effects on Attitude Toward Water Conservation

In three phases, this study identifies and evaluates the major messages being used in communication campaigns focused on the ongoing drought in California. A literature review in Phase 1 resulted in a typology of 12 message strategies. Following this typology, trained coders in Phase 2 evaluated water conservation messages (N?=?100) to determine whether each message utilized one or multiple strategies. The results revealed various frequencies of strategy application; and a correlational analysis rendered a pattern of strategy use in combinations. Phase 3 focused on a controlled message experiment applying the three most relevant strategies: conservation tips, loss aversion, and evidence of drought. Analysing data sampled from California residents (N?=?180), conservation messages, regardless of the strategy, led to attitude change in a negative direction. Additional analyses revealed interesting patterns of combinatorial strategy effects. The results call for a re-examination of message strategies as they may lead to several unfavourable outcomes.     

Climate Engagement in a Digital Age: Exploring the Drivers of Participation in Climate Discourse Online in the Context of COP21

Various scholars underscore the importance of public engagement with climate change to successfully respond to the challenges of global warming. However, although online media provide various new opportunities to actively engage in climate discourse so far very little is known about the drivers of this form of engagement. Against this background, this study tested a theoretical model on the effects of media and interpersonal communication on participation in climate discourse online using data from a representative online survey of German citizens (n?=?1392) carried out while COP21. Overall, the results show that receiving information on climate change from social media (social networks, Twitter, blogs), active information seeking online and interpersonal conversations about COP21 strongly encourage participation in climate discourse online. Moreover, results provide relevant insights on the role of interest in climate politics, personal issue relevance and climate scepticism as preconditions of communication effects.     

Unintended Effects of Emphasizing the Role of Climate Change in Recent Natural Disasters

In 2017, the United States experienced a series of natural hazards (hurricanes, wildfires, and blizzards) that resulted in significant loss of life and property. Emphasizing the role of climate change in these events might offer an important tool for engagement, particularly with skeptical audiences. However, in a survey experiment (N?=?1504) involving three different natural hazards – hurricanes, wildfires, and blizzards – we find that emphasizing the role of climate change in these hazards produced unintended effects for climate change skeptics. In particular, skeptics experienced resistance to the news article, which associated with reduced perceived hazard severity. These backfiring effects likely serve as a defensive mechanism used by skeptics to maintain their prior views of climate change, illustrating the challenges faced in communicating climate change to skeptical audiences. These findings offer additional insight for those attempting to communicate climate-related risk information to skeptical audiences.     

How Aware Are Other Nations of Climate Change? Analyzing Germans’ Second-Order Climate Change Beliefs About Chinese,US American and German People

ABSTRACT

What people believe about the beliefs of other people – second-order beliefs – has been acknowledged as a key factor that shapes public support for international climate policy. However, very little is known about their origins. Based on data from an online survey (n?=?935), we analyzed how German citizens assess the climate change awareness in their own nation as compared to those of the US and China. Even if the public climate change awareness in the US and China factually differs, we found that German citizens equivalently rate both nations similar and much lower than their own, a finding which can be explained with social identity processes and “in-group”/“out-group” biases. Hierarchical regression analyses demonstrate that the attention individuals pay towards television and social media predict second-order beliefs on climate change awareness positively, while attention to print media is a negative predictor.     

Community vulnerability and resilience in disaster risk reduction: an example from Phojal Nalla,Himachal Pradesh,India

International Disaster Risk Reduction Frameworks and Indian Plans advocate shared responsibility for reducing disaster risk, in which community vulnerability and resilience conditions are central. This paper presents a case study from the Indian Himalaya (Kullu District) of community vulnerability and resilience conditions following damaging floods, primarily the 1994 Phojal Nalla flood, through the concepts of community heritage and capital. Data were collected in the period 2013–2016, using semi-structured interviews (n?=?129), village reconnaissance and archival/contemporary data searches. The connections between heritage, capital, vulnerability and resilience are complex, but results demonstrate ‘knowledge’ is the principal driver of resilience conditions, via facets of heritage (e.g. religious infrastructure and activities, traditional architectural vernacular, and multi-generational attachments to place) and capital (e.g. income diversification, access to communication technologies, societal welfare measures and positive interactions with water). Persisting vulnerabilities stem from differential access to and implementation of best practice knowledge, governed by social, economic and political conditions. Further improvements in risk reduction require greater consideration of the following: (1) the integration of community local knowledge into the overall disaster management process; (2) the opportunities offered by mobile phone and other technologies for generating and sharing knowledge across society; and (3) the value of under-utilised knowledge of past disaster events, assembled from a systematic evaluation of oral, documentary and landscape evidence, to risk reduction.     

“The End of the Ice Age?”: Disappearing World Heritage and the Climate Change Communication Imperative

Rapid environmental change in vulnerable destinations has stimulated a new form of travel termed “last chance tourism” (LCT). Studies have examined the risks of LCT, while leaving potential opportunities within this new tourism market largely underexplored. Results of survey (n?=?399) research in Jasper National Park, Canada reveal that a LCT motivation influences decisions to visit this iconic Canadian destination, and suggest that this motivation is linked to a desire to learn about the impacts of climate change on the Athabasca Glacier. Findings suggest there may be short to medium term opportunities associated with LCT, including promoting climate change ambassadorship through management interventions. This paper discusses a range of possible education, interpretive, and outreach activities that might be employed at LCT destinations. It outlines the relative merits (or what we refer to as “uneasy benefits”) of promoting the glacier and other LCT destinations within a protected areas management and climate change adaptation context.     

External Communication About Sustainability: Corporate Social Responsibility Reports and Social Media Activity

External communication about corporate social responsibility (CSR) and sustainability activities may vary significantly across firms. Communication channel, content, and frequency may reflect a company’s resource allocation priorities, its culture, and its leadership in the sustainability domain. This empirical research compares n?=?11 global consumer apparel companies, with brands ranging from Adidas to Prada to Wrangler, in terms of their communication about CSR and sustainability in both formal outlets (annual CSR reports), informal channels (Twitter and Facebook social media), and voluntary participation in external rankings (the Global Reporting Initiative). In addition, the sample is divided into “High-Ranked” and “Low-Ranked” subsamples, using Newsweek’s Greenest Companies 2014 rankings, to examine if companies ranked highly by Newsweek communicate more often and display higher levels of engagement in sustainability reporting, compared to low-ranked firms. Results provide support for our research propositions. We conclude with recommendations for companies seeking to strengthen their CSR external communication.     

It is Always Dry Here: Examining Perceptions about Drought and Climate Change in the Southern High Plains

ABSTRACT

Drought is defined, experienced, and communicated about in multiple ways. This case study examines individual definitions of drought (timing, impacts, and severity) and attitudes about climate change. Household surveys (n?=?120) were conducted in Cimarron County, Oklahoma and Union County, New Mexico using a stratified random sampling method to select farmers, ranchers, and town residents. Information about drought is primarily communicated between neighbors, friends, and family, as well as media and local governing agencies. Residents perceive the recent drought to be the worst drought on record, regardless of previous drought experiences. Residents reported widespread drought-related impacts on agriculture, environment, and society. Most residents see drought as cyclical and driven by natural causes, rather than human causes. We recommend adaptive drought communication engage more fully with identity, place, and history. Climate information should be presented in a relevant manner to diverse agricultural stakeholders with differing attitudes about climate change, management, and climate information.     

Divergent Perspectives on Expert Disagreement: Preliminary Evidence from Climate Science,Climate Policy,Astrophysics, and Public Opinion

We report the results of an exploratory study that examines the judgments of climate scientists, climate policy experts, astrophysicists, and non-experts (N?=?3367) about the factors that contribute to the creation and persistence of disagreement within climate science and astrophysics and about how one should respond to expert disagreement. We found that, as compared to non-experts, climate experts believe that within climate science (i) there is less disagreement about climate change, (ii) methodological factors play less of a role in generating disagreements, (iii) fewer personal or institutional biases influence climate research, and (iv) there is more agreement about which methods should be used to examine relevant phenomena we also observed that the uniquely American political context predicted experts’ judgments about some of these factors. We also found that, in regard to disagreements concerning cosmic ray physics, and commensurate with the greater inherent uncertainty and data lacunae in their field, astrophysicists working on cosmic rays were generally more willing to acknowledge expert disagreement, more open to the idea that a set of data can have multiple valid interpretations, and generally less quick to dismiss someone articulating a non-standard view as non-expert, than climate scientists were in regard to climate science.     

Cleaning the river Damodar (India): impact of COVID-19 lockdown on water quality and future rejuvenation strategies

Globally, it is established that the partial lockdown system assists to improve the health of the total environment due to inadequate anthropogenic actions in different economic sectors. The ample research on fitness of environment has been proved that the strict imposition of lockdown was the blessings of environment. The river Damodar has historical significance and lifeline for huge population of Jharkhand and West Bengal state of India but in the recent years the water quality has been deteriorated due to untreated industrial effluents and urban sewage. The main objective of this study is to examine the water quality of river Damodar during and prelockdown phase for domestic use and restoration of river ecosystem. A total of eleven (11) effluent discharge sites were selected in prelockdown and during lockdown phase. A new approach of water quality assessment, i.e., water pollution index (WPI) has been applied in this study. WPI is weightage free, unbiased method to analysis of water quality. The result shows that the physical, chemical and heavy elements were found beyond the standard limit in prelockdown period. The cation and anion were arranged in an order of Na²⁺ ?>?K⁺ ?>?Ca²⁺ ?>?Mg²⁺ and Cl^??>?So₄^??>?No₃^??>?F^? in both the sessions. WPI of prelockdown showed that about 100% water samples are of highly polluted. WPI of lockdown period showed that around 90.90% samples improved to ‘good quality’ and 9.10% of samples are of ‘moderately polluted.’ Hypothesis testing by ‘t’ test proved that there was a significant difference (ρ?=?0.05%) in values of each parameter between two periods. Null hypothesis was rejected and indicated the improvement of river water quality statistically. Spatial mapping using Arc GIS 10.4 interpolation (IDW) helps to understand spatial intensity of pollution load in two periods. This research study should be helpful for further management and spatial diagnosis of water resource of river Damodar.

     

“Not All Environmentalists Are Like That … ”: Unpacking the Negative and Positive Beliefs and Perceptions of Environmentalists

ABSTRACT

Limited research to date has qualitatively explored the perceptions members of the public who are not environmental activists hold of environmentalists. Therefore a qualitative survey was conducted with 89 US residents aged 21–53 (M_age?=?32.74, SD_age?=?7.89) to obtain an in-depth understanding of how non-activists within the public perceive environmentalists. Data obtained were analyzed using thematic analysis and demonstrated that non-activist perceptions of environmentalists contained both positive and negative components. Environmentalists were seen to value nature and to be actively involved in bringing about positive environmental change (positive component), yet were also viewed as aggressive in their behaviors and stubborn in their beliefs (negative component). Further still, it was found that environmentalists were more likely to be perceived positively when they engaged in individual-level, private sphere behaviors (such as recycling), and negatively when they engaged in collective-level, public sphere behaviors (such as protesting). These findings not only challenge the assumption that members of the public typically evaluate environmentalists negatively, they also outline why some individuals may fail to identify as an environmentalist and engage in pro-environmental behavior. Furthermore, they also provide some insight as to why some environmentalists find it difficult to advocate for system change that results from collective action within the public sphere.     

Developing REDD+ policies and measures from the bottom-up for the buffer zones of Amazonian protected areas

A key activity in Phase 1 of REDD+—the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) forestry mitigation mechanism—is the development of policies and measures (PAMs) to define where and how emissions reductions and carbon stock enhancements and conservation will be achieved. This paper provides contextual data and information for the development of PAMs specifically for the buffer zones of protected areas in the Peruvian Amazon, sites where REDD+ has the potential to generate considerable social and ecological co-benefits. The study sites are the buffer zones of two national parks, Yanachaga-Chemillen (YChNP) in central Peru and Manu (MNP) in the south-east. Data were collected through smallholder household surveys (n?=?200), covering livelihood strategies, land use practices and preference rankings of five REDD+ criteria. The findings suggest that PAMs in buffer zones could realistically achieve an additional ~10?% conservation of remaining forest and between 25 and 70?% additional reforestation of non-forest areas on private lands. The paper argues that in areas where agricultural co-operatives exist, such as MNP, these should be engaged in national REDD+ PAMs and supported by an international NGO; in areas where smallholders operate individually, such as YChNP, international NGOs may be best placed to gain local trust and thereby raise participation rates. The environmental effectiveness of REDD+ conservation PAMs could be greater in areas of intense agricultural production, yet financial and technical support for reforestation may offer the most effective avenue for carbon mitigation in these areas.     

Artisanal fisheries of the Itaparica reservoir,São Francisco River,Brazil: socioeconomic profile,environmental dynamics,and management recommendations

Currently, artisanal fisheries in fresh water reservoirs have been losing ground to commercial fish farming and a great deal of fishery resources are being threatened by human interventions, such as reservoir management and increasing net-cage aquaculture. This study aims to understand the impacts of environmental changes on fishery resources and analyse the migratory fish breeding season as a missing link for fishery management in the semi-arid area of the São Francisco River Basin. Among the 870 fishermen operating in the Pernambuco part of the Itaparica Reservoir, 10% were interviewed and affirmed that fish stocks have been compromised due to the closed fishing period’s incoherence, exotic species insertion, and changes to the river flow caused by reservoir construction and operation. A significant correlation was observed between the Reproductive Activity Index (RAI) and precipitation (p?=?0.745) as well as between the RAI and the river’s flow (p?=??0.909). This shows how important it is to consider both the semi-arid climate setting and reservoir operation in determining the closed period which should safeguard fish reproduction. Monitoring the fish reproduction period and research on the reproductive biology of native fish species is needed in the São Francisco River Basin’s different stretches in order to guarantee valuable fish stocks and fisheries maintenance. Integrated action between the fish resource users, civil society, and federal bodies/agencies is essential in order to mitigate impacts and improve fish production systems, not only in Brazil, but in other regions experiencing a similar scenario.     

Application of multivariate statistical analyses in the interpretation of geochemical behaviour of uranium in phosphatic rocks in the Red Sea,Nile Valley and Western Desert,Egypt

Factor and cluster analyses as well as the Pearson correlation coefficient have been applied to geochemical data obtained from phosphorite and phosphatic rocks of Duwi Formation exposed at the Red Sea coast. Nile Valley and Western Desert. Sixty-six samples from a total of 71 collected samples were analysed for SiO2, TiO2, Al203, Fe2O3, CaO, MgO, Na2O, K2O, P2O5, Sr, U and Pb by XRF and their mineral constituents were determined by the use of XRD techniques. In addition, the natural radioactivity of the phosphatic samples due to their uranium, thorium and potassium contents was measured by gamma-spectrometry. The uranium content in the phosphate rocks with P2O5 > 15% (average of 106.6 ppm) is higher than in rocks with P2O5 < 15% (average of 35.5 ppm). Uranium distribution is essentially controlled by the variations of P2O5 and CaO, whereas it is not related to changes in SiO2, TiO2, Al2O3, Fe2O3, MgO, Na2O and K2O concentrations.-Factor analysis and the Pearson correlation coefficient revealed that uranium belaves geochemically in different ways in the phosphatic sediments and phosphorites in the Red Sea, Nile Valley and Western Desert. In the Red Sea and Western Desert phosphorites, uranium occurs mainly in oxidized U6+ state where it seems to be fixed by the phosphate ion, forming secondary uranium phosphate minerals such as phosphuranylite. In the Nile Valley phosphorites, ionic substitution of Ca2+ by U4 is the main controlling factor in the concentration of uranium in phosphate rocks. Moreover, fixation of U6- by phosphate ion and adsorption of uranium on phosphate minerals play subordinate roles.     

长江口潮间带湿地涨退潮期N2O的排放通量研究

随着河口区接收上游人为氮排放量的增加,为这一区域氧化亚氮（N2O）的排放增加了很大不确定性。选择长江河口潮间带湿地为研究对象,分别采用原位静态箱法和静态顶空法,从2011年1月至12月对长江口沉积物 大气界面以及涨潮水 大气界面的N2O排放通量进行了为期一年的现场观测和研究。研究结果表明,沉积物 大气界面N2O通量有着显著的时空差异。N2O排放通量在日变化以及季节变化上都表现出明显的源汇转变,就年平均排放通量,光滩带沉积物 大气界面达到了599 μgN2O/(m2〖DK〗·h),而海三棱藨草盐沼带与大气间N2O交换则十分微弱,为060 μgN2O/(m2〖DK〗·h)。对长江口涨退潮期光滩和草滩上覆水体 大气界面N2O排放通量的研究表明,长江口涨退潮期在夏季和秋季,无论是光滩还是草滩均表现为大气N2O的稳定排放源,其中夏季平均253 μgN2O/(m2〖DK〗·h),秋季平均排放通量为207 μgN2O/(m2〖DK〗·h)。作为河口区上游排放氮素的直接接收者,和沉积物 大气界面N2O排放相比,长江口涨潮水 大气界面N2O排放稳定而又显著,是长江口N2O排放的主要贡献者,应成为这一区域N2O排放的关注热点     

城市化水平、工业化水平对空气质量的影响分析——基于湖北省16城市2005～2017年数据的时空模型

基于湖北省16城市2005~2017年数据，应用空间计量模型研究城市化水平、工业化水平对空气SO2、NO2、PM10含量的影响。结果显示，在城市化水平中，人均GDP对空气中SO2含量有显著负向影响，对NO2有显著正向影响，民用汽车的数量、公路里程对城市空气中SO2、NO2、PM10含量有显著正向影响，工业化水平对空气中SO2、NO2显著负向影响，对PM10含量有显著正向影响，人均绿地面积对空气中SO2的含量有显著负向影响，对NO2、PM10的影响不显著。为此，必须加快产业转型升级，做好产业发展规划；必须强化城市民用汽车尾气排放检测，加强城市配套园林建设；必须建立城市绿色发展联动机制，做好区域巡查监管。     

Chemical availability of 137Cs and 90Sr in undisturbed lysimeter soils maintained under controlled and close-to-real conditions

Chemical availability of 137Cs and 90Sr was determined in four undisturbed soils in a lysimeter study three and four years after deposition to the soil surface. The study was part of a larger project on radionuclide soil-plant interactions under well-defined conditions. The soil types were loam, silt loam, sandy loam and loamy sand, and were representatives of important European soil and climatic conditions. The lysimeters were installed in greenhouses with climatic and hydrological control, and were contaminated with 137Cs and 90Sr in an aerosol mixture simulating fallout from a nuclear accident. Soil samples were taken from several depths in each soil in 1997 and 1998 and the samples were sequentially extracted with H2O, NH4Ac, NH2OH.HCl, H2O2 and HNO3. Extractability of 137Cs decreased in the order: HNO3 > R-esidual > or = NH4Ac > H2O2 > or = NH2OH.HCl > or = H2O. More than 80% was found in the acid digestible or residual fractions, and 11-17% in labile fractions. Soil type differences were small. Extractability of 90Sr decreased in the order: NH4Ac > NH2OH.HCl > HNO3 > H2O2 approximately H2O. 31-58% was found in easily available fractions. Differences between soil types were quite small. The results suggest that availability of 137Cs for plant uptake and migration is low, whereas availability of 90Sr is rather high.     

猫跳河流域梯级水库夏季N2O的产生与释放机理

为了研究河流筑坝对河流氮生物地球化学循环的影响，在夏季水体分层期间对猫跳河梯级水库坝前分层采集水样进行了相关地球化学分析。结果显示，在上游的两座水库存在2个明显的温度分层现象，并影响到了水体N2O的产生和分布。红枫水库整个剖面的氮分布主要受硝化作用控制，而百花湖、修文及红岩水库则表现为上层水体为硝化作用，中层为硝化反硝化共同作用。所有水库表层水和下泄水高饱和度的N2O含量表明这些水体为大气N2O的源。百花湖底层反硝化作用强烈，中间产物N2O大量消耗。底层泄水的方式对于温室气体释放影响重大，因此不同水库下泄水的N2O含量在时间和空间上的变化与水库运行和调蓄模式有关。研究结果表明，梯级水库过程对N2O的排放影响很大，在水电开发的环境保护中应当引起重视。