Five Potential Consequences of Climate Change for Invasive Species

Abstract:  Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.     

Unintended biological invasions: Does risk vary by trading partner?

International trade is the primary conduit for unintentional and damaging species introductions. But biogeographic heterogeneity, and differences in historical trade exposure across trade partners suggest that not all imports are equally risky. We develop an analytical model linking exotic species introductions and discoveries to trade volumes. The model is estimated using a novel historical data set on global trade and species introductions by region. Our estimates support theoretical predictions that trade from different regions poses different risks and that the cumulative number of introductions from a region is a concave function of imports. For each trade region we then calculate the marginal and cumulative invasion risk from additional trade. Simple volume restrictions on imports to reduce NIS introductions are not advisable based on coarse cost–benefit calculations.     

Integrated Monitoring and Information Systems for Managing Aquatic Invasive Species in a Changing Climate

Abstract:  Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.     

Discrepancies in Reported Levels of International Wildlife Trade

Abstract:  The international wildlife trade is a principal cause of biodiversity loss, involving hundreds of millions of plants and animals each year, yet wildlife trade records are notoriously unreliable. We assessed the precision of wildlife trade reports for the United States, the world's largest consumer of endangered wildlife, by comparing data from the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) with U.S. Customs data. For both U.S. imports and exports, CITES and Customs reported substantially different trade volumes for all taxa in all years. Discrepancies ranged from a CITES-reported volume 376% greater than that reported by Customs (live coral imports, 2000) to a Customs' report 5202% greater than CITES (conch exports, 2000). These widely divergent data suggest widespread inaccuracies that may distort the perceived risk of targeted wildlife exploitation, leading to misallocation of management resources and less effective conservation strategies. Conservation scientists and practitioners should reexamine assumptions regarding the significance of the international wildlife trade.     

Level of environmental threat posed by horticultural trade in Cactaceae

Ornamental horticulture has been identified as an important threat to plant biodiversity and is a major pathway for plant invasions worldwide. In this context, the family Cactaceae is particularly challenging because it is considered the fifth most threatened large taxonomic group in the world; several species are among the most widespread and damaging invasive species; and Cactaceae is one of the most popular horticultural plant groups. Based on the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna and the 11 largest online auction sites selling cacti, we documented the international cactus trade. To provide an in‐depth look at the dynamics of the industry, we surveyed the businesses involved in the cactus trade in South Africa (a hotspot of cactus trade and invasions). We purchased seeds of every available species and used DNA barcoding to identify species to the genus level. Although <20% of this trade involved threatened species and <3% involved known invasive species, many species were identified by a common name. However, only 0.02% of the globally traded cacti were collected from wild populations. Despite a large commercial network, all South African imports (of which 15% and 1.5% were of species listed as threatened and invasive, respectively) came from the same source. With DNA barcoding, we identified 24% of the species to genus level. Based on our results, we believe that if trade restrictions are placed on the small proportion of cacti that are invasive and there is no major increase in harvesting of native populations, then the commercial trade in cactus poses a negligible environmental threat. However, there are currently no effective methods for easily identifying which cacti are traded, and both the illicit harvesting of cacti from the wild and the informal trade in invasive taxa pose on‐going conservation challenges.     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species

Abstract:  Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.     

Shared governance arrangements and social connectivity: advancing large-scale coastal and marine conservation initiatives in the Dominican Republic

Increasingly, large-scale conservation initiatives (e.g. through protected area networks and transboundary connectivity initiatives) are growing in prevalence as their diverse sustainability benefits are further understood. Conventional, centralized approaches to conservation, often featuring unconnected discrete ‘patches’, are no longer sufficient for achieving effective, long-term protection. The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of how to achieve effective large-scale conservation initiatives by addressing the following objectives: (1) To assess the degree to which local actors are involved in coastal and marine conservation practices, with a focus on large-scale conservation initiatives (LCIs); and, (2) To identify barriers and opportunities for achieving effective large-scale conservation. This paper presents findings from research in the Dominican Republic where social-ecological components of coastal and marine systems are considered from multiple perspectives to advance management and increase effectiveness of LCIs. Data were acquired through semi-structured interviews with 35 coastal and marine actors (e.g. fishers, ministers, non-governmental organizations, practitioners, academics) working at local to international scales. Interview data were analysed through thematic coding using QSR-Nvivo 12 software. Respondents expressed that non-governmental actors (e.g. private organizations, coastal communities) should have an increased role in developing, implementing and managing coastal and marine LCIs. Additionally, respondents commented on strategies to enhance social connectivity (i.e. sharing experiences, programs and expertise) within coastal and marine practices to enhance effectiveness and facilitate learning. Findings contribute to the understanding of complex coastal and marine social-ecological systems of the Dominican Republic and provide further support for involving multiple actors in governance processes.     

Positive Feedback Loop between Introductions of Non‐Native Marine Species and Cultivation of Oysters in Europe

With globalization, agriculture and aquaculture activities are increasingly affected by diseases that are spread through movement of crops and stock. Such movements are also associated with the introduction of non‐native species via hitchhiking individual organisms. The oyster industry, one of the most important forms of marine aquaculture, embodies these issues. In Europe disease outbreaks affecting cultivated populations of the naturalized oyster Crassostrea gigas caused a major disruption of production in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Mitigation procedures involved massive imports of stock from the species’ native range in the northwestern Pacific from 1971 to 1977. We assessed the role stock imports played in the introduction of non‐native marine species (including pathogens) from the northwestern Pacific to Europe through a methodological and critical appraisal of record data. The discovery rate of non‐native species (a proxy for the introduction rate) from 1966 to 2012 suggests a continuous vector activity over the entire period. Disease outbreaks that have been affecting oyster production since 2008 may be a result of imports from the northwestern Pacific, and such imports are again being considered as an answer to the crisis. Although successful as a remedy in the short and medium terms, such translocations may bring new diseases that may trigger yet more imports (self‐reinforcing or positive feedback loop) and lead to the introduction of more hitchhikers. Although there is a legal framework to prevent or reduce these introductions, existing procedures should be improved. Ciclo de Retroalimentación Positiva entre la Introducción de Especies Marinas No‐Nativas y el Cultivo de Ostras en Europa     

Managing Aquatic Species of Conservation Concern in the Face of Climate Change and Invasive Species

Abstract:  The difficult task of managing species of conservation concern is likely to become even more challenging due to the interaction of climate change and invasive species. In addition to direct effects on habitat quality, climate change will foster the expansion of invasive species into new areas and magnify the effects of invasive species already present by altering competitive dominance, increasing predation rates, and enhancing the virulence of diseases. In some cases parapatric species may expand into new habitats and have detrimental effects that are similar to those of invading non-native species. The traditional strategy of isolating imperiled species in reserves may not be adequate if habitat conditions change beyond historic ranges or in ways that favor invasive species. The consequences of climate change will require a more active management paradigm that includes implementing habitat improvements that reduce the effects of climate change and creating migration barriers that prevent an influx of invasive species. Other management actions that should be considered include providing dispersal corridors that allow species to track environmental changes, translocating species to newly suitable habitats where migration is not possible, and developing action plans for the early detection and eradication of new invasive species.     

外来入侵植物在中国的分布及入侵能力研究进展

以近十几年来备受关注的外来植物入侵为背景,综述关于入侵植物在我国分布和入侵能力及其相关因素的研究进展,并探讨了未来研究需要加强的几个方面。不同起源地的入侵植物在我国分布区域不一样,在控制了起源地的作用后,入侵植物主要分布在经济较发达、人为活动较多的省份或地区（大尺度）,以及干扰较严重的生境（小尺度）。入侵能力强的多年生植物常有强大的无性繁殖能力、高光合速率和资源利用效率、强化感作用、以及适应异质生境的能力;起源于美洲的入侵能力强的1年生植物常能产生大量的易传播的种子、可自交亲和、强化感作用等;起源于欧亚大陆的入侵能力强的1年生植物常与作物非常相似,在农田中危害严重。未来需要研究干扰促进入侵的机制、化感作用与野外实际情况相结合研究、化感物质通过改变土壤微生态环境间接促进入侵的机制研究、1年生和多年生外来植物的入侵能力与其物种特性之间的关系、以及加强对弱入侵性外来植物的预警研究。这些研究不仅能使我们深入理解外来植物发生入侵和危害的规律,也可为人侵植物的防控和管理提供科学依据。     

Optimal Allocation of Resources among Threatened Species: a Project Prioritization Protocol

Abstract: Conservation funds are grossly inadequate to address the plight of threatened species. Government and conservation organizations faced with the task of conserving threatened species desperately need simple strategies for allocating limited resources. The academic literature dedicated to systematic priority setting usually recommends ranking species on several criteria, including level of endangerment and metrics of species value such as evolutionary distinctiveness, ecological importance, and social significance. These approaches ignore 2 crucial factors: the cost of management and the likelihood that the management will succeed. These oversights will result in misallocation of scarce conservation resources and possibly unnecessary losses. We devised a project prioritization protocol (PPP) to optimize resource allocation among New Zealand's threatened‐species projects, where costs, benefits (including species values), and the likelihood of management success were considered simultaneously. We compared the number of species managed and the expected benefits gained with 5 prioritization criteria: PPP with weightings based on species value; PPP with species weighted equally; management costs; species value; and threat status. We found that the rational use of cost and success information substantially increased the number of species managed, and prioritizing management projects according to species value or threat status in isolation was inefficient and resulted in fewer species managed. In addition, we found a clear trade‐off between funding management of a greater number of the most cost‐efficient and least risky projects and funding fewer projects to manage the species of higher value. Specifically, 11 of 32 species projects could be funded if projects were weighted by species value compared with 16 projects if projects were not weighted. This highlights the value of a transparent decision‐making process, which enables a careful consideration of trade‐offs. The use of PPP can substantially improve conservation outcomes for threatened species by increasing efficiency and ensuring transparency of management decisions.     

An Assessment of Invasion Risk from Assisted Migration

Abstract:  To reduce the risk of extinction due to climate change, some ecologists have suggested human-aided translocation of species, or assisted migration (AM), to areas where climate is projected to become suitable. Such intentional movement, however, may create new invasive species if successful introductions grow out of control and cause ecologic or economic damage. We assessed this risk by surveying invasive species in the United States and categorizing invaders based on origin. Because AM will involve moving species on a regional scale within continents (i.e., range shifts), we used invasive species with an intracontinental origin as a proxy for species that would be moved through AM. We then determined whether intracontinental invasions were more prevalent or harmful than intercontinental invasions. Intracontinental invasions occurred far less frequently than invasions from other continents, but they were just as likely to have had severe effects. Fish and crustaceans pose a particularly high threat of intracontinental invasion. We conclude that the risk of AM to create novel invasive species is small, but assisted species that do become invasive could have large effects. Past experience with species reintroductions may help inform policy regarding AM.     

Factors Associated with Alien Plants Transitioning from Casual, to Naturalized, to Invasive

Abstract:  To explain current plant invasions, or predict future ones, more knowledge on which factors increase the probability of alien species becoming naturalized and subsequently invasive is needed. We created a database of the alien plants in seminatural habitats in Ireland that included data on taxonomy, invasive status, invasion history, distribution, and biological and ecological plant characteristics. We used information from this database to determine the importance of these factors in increasing the ability of species to become naturalized and invasive. More specifically, we used two multiple logistic regressions to identify factors that distinguish naturalized from casual alien plant species and invasive from noninvasive, naturalized alien species. Clonal growth, moisture-indicator value, nitrogen-indicator value, native range, and date of first record affected (in order of decreasing importance) the probability of naturalization. Factors that distinguished invasive from noninvasive species were ornamental introduction, hermaphrodite flowers, pollination mode, being invasive elsewhere, onset of flowering season, moisture-indicator value, native range, and date of first record. Incorporation of phylogenetic information had little influence on the results, suggesting that the capacity of alien species to naturalize and become invasive evolved largely independently in several phylogenetic lineages. Whereas some of the variables were important for both transitions, others were only important for naturalization or for invasion. This emphasizes the importance of studying different stages of the invasion process when looking for mechanisms of becoming a successful invasive plant, instead of simply comparing invasive with noninvasive alien species. Our results also suggest that a combination of species traits and other variables is likely to produce the most accurate prediction of invasions.     

Species Review of Amphibian Extinction Risks in Madagascar: Conclusions from the Global Amphibian Assessment

Abstract:  We assessed the extinction risks of Malagasy amphibians by evaluating their distribution, occurrence in protected areas, population trends, habitat quality, and prevalence in commercial trade. We estimated and mapped the distribution of each of the 220 described Malagasy species and applied, for the first time, the IUCN Red List categories and criteria to all species described at the time of the assessment. Nine species were categorized as critically endangered, 21 as endangered, and 25 as vulnerable. The most threatened species occur on the High Plateau and/or have been subjected to overcollection for the pet trade, but restricted extent of occurrence and ongoing habitat destruction were identified as the most important factors influencing extinction threats. The two areas with the majority of threatened species were the northern Tsaratanana-Marojejy-Masoala highlands and the southeastern Anosy Mountains. The current system of protected areas includes 82% of the threatened amphibian species. Of the critically endangered species, 6 did not occur in any protected area. For conservation of these species we recommend the creation of a reserve for the species of the Mantella aurantiaca group, the inclusion of two Scaphiophryne species in the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species Appendix II, and the suspension of commercial collecting for Mantella cowani . Field surveys during the last 15 years reveal no pervasive extinction of Malagasy amphibians resulting from disease or other agents, as has been reported in some other areas of the world.     

E‐commerce trade in invasive plants

Biological invasions are a major concern in conservation, especially because global transport of species is still increasing rapidly. Conservationists hope to anticipate and thus prevent future invasions by identifying and regulating potentially invasive species through species risk assessments and international trade regulations. Among many introduction pathways of non‐native species, horticulture is a particularly important driver of plant invasions. In recent decades, the horticultural industry expanded globally and changed structurally through the emergence of new distribution channels, including internet trade (e‐commerce). Using an automated search algorithm, we surveyed, on a daily basis, e‐commerce trade on 10 major online auction sites (including eBay) of approximately three‐fifths of the world's spermatophyte flora. Many recognized invasive plant species (>500 species) (i.e., species associated with ecological or socio‐economic problems) were traded daily worldwide on the internet. A markedly higher proportion of invasive than non‐invasive species were available online. Typically, for a particular plant family, 30–80% of recognized invasive species were detected on an auction site, but only a few percentages of all species in the plant family were detected on a site. Families that were more traded had a higher proportion of invasive species than families that were less traded. For woody species, there was a significant positive relationship between the number of regions where a species was sold and the number of regions where it was invasive. Our results indicate that biosecurity is not effectively regulating online plant trade. In the future, automated monitoring of e‐commerce may help prevent the spread of invasive species, provide information on emerging trade connectivity across national borders, and be used in horizon scanning exercises for early detection of new species and their geographic source areas in international trade.     

Species Extinction in the Marine Environment: Tasmania as a Regional Example of Overlooked Losses in Biodiversity

Abstract:  We used Tasmania as a case example to question the consensus that few marine species have recently become extinct or are approaching extinction. Threats to marine and estuarine species—primarily in the form of climate change, invasive species, fishing, and catchment discharges—are accelerating, fully encompass species ranges, and are of sufficient magnitude to cause extinction. Our ignorance of declining biodiversity in the marine environment largely results from an almost complete lack of systematic broad-scale sampling and an overreliance on physicochemical data to monitor environmental trends. Population declines for marine species approaching extinction will generally go unnoticed because of the hidden nature of their environment and lack of quantitative data.     

Contribution of the Live-Vertebrate Trade toward Taxonomic Homogenization

Abstract:  The process of taxonomic homogenization occurs through two mechanisms, extinctions and introductions, and leads to a reduction of global biodiversity. We used available U.S. trade data as a proxy for global trade in live vertebrates to assess the contribution of trade to the process of taxonomic homogenization. Data included all available U.S. importation and exportation records, estimation of extinction risk, and reports of establishment outside the native range for species within six vertebrate groups. Based on Monte Carlo sampling, the number of species traded, established outside of the native range, and threatened with extinction was not randomly distributed among vertebrate families. Twenty-eight percent of vertebrate families that were traded preferentially were also established or threatened with extinction, an unusually high percentage compared with the 7% of families that were not traded preferentially but that became established or threatened with extinction. The importance of trade in homogenization of vertebrates suggests that additional efforts should be made to prevent introductions and extinctions through this medium.     

Species composition of the international shark fin trade assessed through a retail‐market survey in Hong Kong

The shark fin trade is a major driver of shark exploitation in fisheries all over the world, most of which are not managed on a species‐specific basis. Species‐specific trade information highlights taxa of particular concern and can be used to assess the efficacy of management measures and anticipate emerging threats. The species composition of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, one of the world's largest fin trading hubs, was partially assessed in 1999–2001. We randomly selected and genetically identified fin trimmings (n = 4800), produced during fin processing, from the retail market of Hong Kong in 2014–2015 to assess contemporary species composition of the fin trade. We used nonparametric species estimators to determine that at least 76 species of sharks, batoids, and chimaeras supplied the fin trade and a Bayesian model to determine their relative proportion in the market. The diversity of traded species suggests species substitution could mask depletion of vulnerable species; one‐third of identified species are threatened with extinction. The Bayesian model suggested that 8 species each comprised >1% of the fin trimmings (34.1–64.2% for blue [Prionace glauca], 0.2–1.2% for bull [Carcharhinus leucas] and shortfin mako [Isurus oxyrinchus]); thus, trade was skewed to a few globally distributed species. Several other coastal sharks, batoids, and chimaeras are in the trade but poorly managed. Fewer than 10 of the species we modeled have sustainably managed fisheries anywhere in their range, and the most common species in trade, the blue shark, was not among them. Our study and approach serve as a baseline to track changes in composition of species in the fin trade over time to better understand patterns of exploitation and assess the effects of emerging management actions for these animals.     

入侵植物加拿大一枝黄花和本地一枝黄花的遗传多样性比较

为了阐明加拿大一枝黄花成功入侵的机制,利用简单序列重复区间标记(ISSR)方法对加拿大一枝黄花和本地一枝黄花的遗传多样性进行比较研究。从100条引物中筛选出12条引物用于PCR扩增,利用POPGEN32软件对2种一枝黄花进行遗传多样性分析。结果表明,加拿大一枝黄花在物种水平上的多态位点百分率为95.19%,Nei’s基因多样性指数为0.308 5,Shannon’s信息指数为0.415 8;本地一枝黄花在物种水平上的多态位点百分率(89.80%)、Nei’s基因多样性指数(0.249 1)和Shannon’s信息指数(0.383 4)都比加拿大一枝黄花小。加拿大一枝黄花和本地一枝黄花居群间遗传分化系数分别为0.118 2和0.131 3,居群内变异分别为0.881 8和0.868 7,表明2个物种居群间的遗传分化不明显,遗传一致度高,且主要的遗传变异存在于居群内。入侵植物加拿大一枝黄花具有较高遗传多样性,且高于本地一枝黄花,这可能是加拿大一枝黄花成功入侵的原因之一。     

Biophysical feedback mediates effects of invasive grasses on coastal dune shape

Vegetation at the aquatic-terrestrial interface can alter landscape features through its growth and interactions with sediment and fluids. Even similar species may impart different effects due to variation in their interactions and feedbacks with the environment. Consequently, replacement of one engineering species by another can cause significant change in the physical environment. Here we investigate the species-specific ecological mechanisms influencing the geomorphology of U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal dunes. Over the last century, this system changed from open, shifting sand dunes with sparse vegetation (including native beach grass, Elymus mollis), to densely vegetated continuous foredune ridges resulting from the introduction and subsequent invasions of two nonnative grass species (Ammophila arenaria and Ammophila breviligulata), each of which is associated with different dune shapes and sediment supply rates along the coast. Here we propose a biophysical feedback responsible for differences in dune shape, and we investigate two, non-mutually exclusive ecological mechanisms for these differences: (1) species differ in their ability to capture sand and (2) species differ in their growth habit in response to sand deposition. To investigate sand capture, we used a moveable bed wind tunnel experiment and found that increasing tiller density increased sand capture efficiency and that, under different experimental densities, the native grass had higher sand capture efficiency compared to the Ammophila congeners. However, the greater densities of nonnative grasses under field conditions suggest that they have greater potential to capture more sand overall. We used a mesocosm experiment to look at plant growth responses to sand deposition and found that, in response to increasing sand supply rates, A. arenaria produced higher-density vertical tillers (characteristic of higher sand capture efficiency), while A. breviligulata and E. mollis responded with lower-density lateral tiller growth (characteristic of lower sand capture efficiency). Combined, these experiments provide evidence for a species-specific effect on coastal dune shape. Understanding how dominant ecosystem engineers, especially nonnative ones, differ in their interactions with abiotic factors is necessary to better parameterize coastal vulnerability models and inform management practices related to both coastal protection ecosystem services and ecosystem restoration.