Temporal variability in winter travel patterns of Yellowstone bison: the effects of road grooming.

The influence of winter recreation on wildlife in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Wyoming and Montana, USA, is a controversial issue. In particular, the effects of road grooming, done to facilitate snowmobile and snowcoach travel, on bison (Bison bison) ecology are under debate. We collected data during winters, from 1997 to 2005, on bison road use, off-road travel, and activity budgets to quantify temporal trends in the amount of bison road and off-road travel and to identify the ecological factors affecting bison movements and use of the groomed road system in the Madison-Gibbon-Firehole (MGF) area of YNP. Using model comparison techniques, we found bison travel patterns to be influenced by multiple, interacting effects. Road travel was negatively correlated with road grooming, and we found no evidence that bison preferentially used groomed roads during winter. Snow water equivalent, bison density, and the springtime melt period were positively correlated with both bison road and off-road travel. From behavioral scans on 68,791 bison, we found that travel is only a small percentage (11%) of all bison activity, with foraging comprising 67% of observations. Also, only 7% of traveling bison and 30% of foraging bison were displacing snow, and we suggest foraging, rather than traveling, is likely the major energetic cost to bison in winter. Bison utilize their own trail network, connecting foraging areas using stream corridors, geothermal pathways, and self-groomed travel routes. Our results indicate that temporal patterns in bison road travel are a manifestation of general travel behavior and that groomed roads in the MGF do not appear to be a major factor influencing bison ecology and spatial redistribution. We suggest that the changes in bison spatial dynamics during the past three decades have likely been the result of the natural phenomenon of density-dependent range expansion, rather than having been caused by the anthropogenic influence of road grooming.     

Role of Light Availability and Dispersal in Exotic Plant Invasion along Roads and Streams in the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon

Abstract: We examined the roles of dispersal mechanism, a biological barrier; light availability, an environmental barrier; and level of disturbance, a physical barrier, in explaining the spatial patterns of exotic plant species along road and stream segments in a forest landscape in the western Cascade Range of Oregon (U.S.A). The presence or absence of 21 selected exotic plant species and light levels were observed along 0.3- to 1.0-km transects within four habitat types. Each habitat represented a different level of disturbance: high-use roads, low-use roads, abandoned roads, and streams in the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest. Nearly 300 50 × 2–m sampling units were surveyed along five transects in each habitat type. We used ordination (nonmetric multidimensional scaling) and logistic regression to analyze data. All of the nearly 200 sampling units along roads with high and low levels of vehicle traffic contained at least one exotic plant species, and some contained as many as 14. Streams that were most recently disturbed by floods 20–30 years ago and abandoned spur roads with no traffic for 20–40 years also had numerous exotic species. Roads and streams apparently serve multiple functions that enhance exotic species invasion in this landscape: they act as corridors or agents for dispersal, provide suitable habitat, and contain reservoirs of propagules for future episodes of invasion. Species-specific dispersal mechanisms, habitat characteristics, and disturbance history each explain some, but not all, of the patterns of exotic species invasion observed in this study.     

Use of Empirically Derived Source-Destination Models to Map Regional Conservation Corridors

Abstract:  The ability of populations to be connected across large landscapes via dispersal is critical to long-term viability for many species. One means to mitigate population isolation is the protection of movement corridors among habitat patches. Nevertheless, the utility of small, narrow, linear features as habitat corridors has been hotly debated. Here, we argue that analysis of movement across continuously resistant landscapes allows a shift to a broader consideration of how landscape patterns influence connectivity at scales relevant to conservation. We further argue that this change in scale and definition of the connectivity problem improves one's ability to find solutions and may help resolve long-standing disputes regarding scale and definition of movement corridors and their importance to population connectivity. We used a new method that combines empirically derived landscape-resistance maps and least-cost path analysis between multiple source and destination locations to assess habitat isolation and identify corridors and barriers to organism movement. Specifically, we used a genetically based landscape resistance model for American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) to identify major movement corridors and barriers to population connectivity between Yellowstone National Park and the Canadian border. Even though western Montana and northern Idaho contain abundant public lands and the largest wilderness areas in the contiguous United States, moving from the Canadian border to Yellowstone Park along those paths indicated by modeled gene flow required bears to cross at least 6 potential barriers. Our methods are generic and can be applied to virtually any species for which reliable maps of landscape resistance can be developed.     

Behavioral responses of bison and elk in Yellowstone to snowmobiles and snow coaches.

Managers of public lands are charged with protecting some of our most important natural resources and ecosystems, while providing for their use and enjoyment by visitors. Almost one million visitors entered Yellowstone National Park by motorized means on snowmobiles (87%) or snow coaches (13%) during 1992-2003. Most vehicles toured the central portion of the park where bison (Bison bison) and elk (Cervus elaphus) concentrate in geothermal areas. We sampled >6500 interactions between groups of these species and groups of snowmobiles and snow coaches (collectively, OSV, over-snow vehicles) during five winters (1999-2000, 2002-2004). Multinomial logits models were used to identify conditions leading to behavioral responses. Elk responded three times as often (52%) as bison (19%) during interactions with groups of snowmobiles and snow coaches due to increased vigilance responses (elk, 44%; bison, 10%). However, the frequency of higher-intensity movement responses by bison and elk were similar (6-7% travel, 1-2% flight, <1% defense) and relatively low compared to other studies of ungulates and snowmobile disturbance. The likelihood of active responses by bison and elk increased significantly if animals were on or near roads, groups were smaller, or humans approached. The likelihood of an active response by bison decreased within winters having the largest visitation, suggesting some habituation to snowmobiles and snow coaches. There was no evidence that snowmobile use during the past 35 years affected the population dynamics or demography of bison or elk. Thus, we suggest that regulations restricting levels and travel routes of over-snow vehicles (OSVs) were effective at reducing disturbances to bison and elk below a level that would cause measurable fitness effects. We recommend park managers consider maintaining OSV traffic levels at or below those observed during our study. Regardless, differing interpretations of the behavioral and physiological response data will continue to exist because of the diverse values and beliefs of the many constituencies of Yellowstone.     

Ecological risk assessment based on road network development analysis of Xiamen city,China

Urban road network development (RND) plays an important role in social and economic evolution. However, the unlimited expansion of roads leads to great changes in urban landscape patterns, which further affect ecosystems. To better characterize the urban ecological risk (UER) of RND, in this study, RND was considered the stressor and habitat provision the assessment endpoint in a UER assessment. According to the theory of landscape ecology, habitat quality disturbance intensity (HQDI) is used to quantify the negative effect of RND on an urban ecosystem. In particular, we aimed to explore the exposure-response function between road density and HQDI under RND stress. A case study was carried out in Xiamen City to examine this association. In terms of spatial distribution, this study showed that developed areas had the highest HQDI values, whereas low HQDI values were mostly associated with suburban areas. In addition, the probability distribution of HQDIs was uneven and the urban ecosystem showed unequal sensitivities to different types of roads. Based on a multilevel characterization of UER, results of this provide a framework to predict UER under RND stress and may enhance the ability of risk managers to develop scientifically based control measures.     

In situ measures of foraging success and prey encounter reveal marine habitat-dependent search strategies

Predators are thought to reduce travel speed and increase turning rate in areas where resources are relatively more abundant, a behavior termed "area-restricted search." However, evidence for this is rare, and few empirical data exist for large predators. Animals exhibiting foraging site fidelity could also be spatially aware of suitable feeding areas based on prior experience; changes in movement patterns might therefore arise from the anticipation of higher prey density. We tested the hypothesis that regions of area-restricted search were associated with a higher number of daily speed spikes (a proxy for potential prey encounter rate) and foraging success in southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), a species exhibiting both area-restricted searches and high interannual foraging site fidelity. We used onshore morphological measurements and diving data from archival tags deployed during winter foraging trips. Foraging success was inferred from in situ changes in relative lipid content derived from measured changes in buoyancy, and first-passage time analysis was used to identify area-restricted search behavior. Seals exhibited relatively direct southerly movement on average, with intensive search behavior predominantly located at the distal end of tracks. The probability of being in search mode was positively related to changes in relative lipid content; thus, intensively searched areas were associated with the highest foraging success. However, there was high foraging success during the outward transit even though seals moved through quickly without slowing down and increasing turning rate to exploit these areas. In addition, the probability of being in search mode was negatively related to the number of daily speed spikes. These results suggest that movement patterns represent a response to prior expectation of the location of predictable and profitable resources. Shelf habitat was 4-9 times more profitable than the other habitats, emphasizing the importance of the East Antarctic shelf for this and other predators in the region. We have provided rare empirical data with which to investigate the relationship between predator foraging strategy and prey encounter/ foraging success, underlining the importance of inferring the timing and spatial arrangement of successful food acquisition for interpreting foraging strategies correctly.     

On the Origin of Brucellosis in Bison of Yellowstone National Park: A Review

Brucellosis caused by Brucella abortus occurs in the free-ranging bison ( Bison bison ) of Yellowstone and Wood Buffalo National Parks and in elk ( Cervus elaphus ) of the Greater Yellowstone Area. As a result of nationwide bovine brucellosis eradication programs, states and provinces proximate to the national parks are considered free of bovine brucellosis. Thus, increased attention has been focused on the wildlife within these areas as potential reservoirs for transmission to cattle. Because the national parks are mandated as natural areas, the question has been raised as to whether Brucella abortus is endogenous or exogenous to bison, particularly for Yellowstone National Park. We synthesized diverse lines of inquiry, including the evolutionary history of both bison and Brucella , wild animals as Brucella hosts, biochemical and genetic information, behavioral characteristics of host and organism, and area history to develop an evaluation of the question for the National Park Service. All lines of inquiry indicated that the organism was introduced to North America with cattle, and that the introduction into the Yellowstone bison probably was directly from cattle shortly before 1917. Fistulous withers of horses was a less likely possibility. Elk on winter feedgrounds south of Yellowstone National Park apparently acquired the disease directly from cattle. Bison presently using Grand Teton National Park probably acquired brucellosis from feedground elk.     

Mapping legal authority for terrestrial conservation corridors along streams

Wildlife corridors aim to promote species’ persistence by connecting habitat patches across fragmented landscapes. Their implementation is limited by patterns of land ownership and complicated by differences in the jurisdictional and regulatory authorities under which lands are managed. Terrestrial corridor conservation requires coordination across jurisdictions and sectors subject to site-specific overlapping sources of legal authority. Mapping spatial patterns of legal authority concurrent with habitat condition can illustrate opportunities to build or leverage capacity for connectivity conservation. Streamside areas provide pragmatic opportunities to leverage existing policy mechanisms for riverine and terrestrial habitat connectivity across boundaries. Conservation planners and practitioners can make use of these opportunities by harmonizing actions for multiple conservation outcomes. We formulated an integrative, data-driven method for mapping multiple sources of legal authority weighted by capacity for coordinating terrestrial habitat conservation along streams. We generated a map of capacity to coordinate streamside corridor protections across a wildlife habitat gap to demonstrate this approach. We combined values representing coordination capacity and naturalness to generate an integrated legal-ecological resistance map for connectivity modeling. We then computed least-cost corridors across the integrated map, masking the terrestrial landscape to focus on streamside areas. Streamside least-cost corridors in the integrated, local-scale model diverged (∼25 km) from national-scale least-cost corridors based on naturalness. Spatial categories comparing legal- and naturalness-based resistance values by stream reach highlighted potential locations for building or leveraging existing capacity through spatial coordination of policy mechanisms or restoration actions. Agencies or nongovernmental organizations intending to restore or maintain habitat connectivity across fragmented landscapes can use this approach to inform spatial prioritization and build coordination capacity. Article impact statement: Combined mapping of legal authority and habitat condition reveals capacity to coordinate actions along streams for clean water and wildlife.     

Searching behavior and use of sampling information by free-ranging bison (Bos bison)

I examined the searching behavior of free-ranging plains bison (Bos bison bison) in their natural habitat, and determined whether their assessment of food patch quality was influenced by the short-term sampling information acquired during search. Bison used area-concentrated search during their winter foraging activity. Their movements between areas of suitable food patches were influenced by local environmental conditions, being sometimes less sinuous, and at other times more sinuous, than expected from a correlated random walk model. Bison also systematically avoided digging in areas where plants of low profitability lay under the snow. Where they dug, there was evidence that a bison's perception of food quality varied during a foraging bout, and was therefore influenced by short-term sampling information. After controlling for forage quality, I found that small feeding craters were more likely to be preceded by samples of high quality food patches. My observations suggest that bison take advantage of the structural characteristics of their environment during searching activity, and base foraging decisions on local rather than global availability.     

Cover Caption

Cover: During winter in the interior of Yellowstone National Park most elk migrate from deep snow while many bison do not, existing near thermal areas and on wind-blown ridges. Wolves still attempt to kill these bison and often spend hours making a kill. Wolf-bison systems used to dominate in North America prior to European settlement but now only Yellowstone and Wood Buffalo National Parks have intact wolf-bison systems. See pp. 1105-1116. Photo by Doug Smith, National Park Service.     

Assessment of prey vulnerability through analysis of wolf movements and kill sites.

Within predator-prey systems behavior can heavily influence spatial dynamics, and accordingly, the theoretical study of how spatial dynamics relate to stability within these systems has a rich history. However, our understanding of these behaviors in large mammalian systems is poorly developed. To address the relationship between predator selection patterns, prey density, and prey vulnerability, we quantified selection patterns for two fine-scale behaviors of a recovering wolf (Canis lupus) population in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA. Wolf spatial data were collected between November and May from 1998-1999 until 2001-2002. Over four winters, 244 aerial locations, 522 ground-based telemetry locations, 1287 km of movement data from snow tracking, and the locations of 279 wolf kill sites were recorded. There was evidence that elk (Cervus elaphus) and bison (Bison bison) densities had a weak effect on the sites where wolves traveled and made kills. Wolf movements showed a strong selection for geothermal areas, meadows, and areas near various types of habitat edges. Proximity to edge and habitat class also had a strong influence on the locations where elk were most vulnerable to predation. There was little evidence that wolf kill sites differed from the places where wolves traveled, indicating that elk vulnerability influenced where wolves selected to travel. Our results indicate that elk are more vulnerable to wolves under certain conditions and that wolves are capable of selecting for these conditions. As such, vulnerability plays a central role in predator-prey behavioral games and can potentially impact the systems to which they relate.     

Effects of Road Clearings on Movement Patterns of Understory Rainforest Birds in Central Amazonia

Abstract:  The impacts of potential linear barriers such as roads, highways, and power lines on rainforest fauna are poorly understood. In the central Brazilian Amazon, we compared the frequency of local movements (≤300 m long) of understory birds within intact forest and across a 30- to 40-m-wide road over a 2-year period. Rainforest had regenerated along some road verges, to the extent that a nearly complete canopy was formed in some areas, so we also assessed whether this facilitated bird movement. Movement data were determined from 1212 recaptures of 3681 netted birds at six study sites. The road significantly inhibited total bird movement across roads at five of the six sites. Bird foraging guilds varied in their responses to the road and different ages of regrowth. Movements of frugivorous and edge and gap species were not inhibited at any site, whereas most forest-dependent insectivores (mixed-species flocks, terrestrial species, and army-ant followers) had markedly inhibited road-crossing movements, except at sites with extensive regrowth. Solitary understory species were especially vulnerable, rarely crossing even roads overgrown by tall regrowth. For sensitive species, road-crossing movements were inhibited because individuals tended to avoid both edge-affected habitat near the road and the road clearing itself. Our results suggest that even narrow roads with low traffic volumes can reduce local movements of many insectivorous birds in Amazonia.     

Disentangling the drivers of reduced long-distance seed dispersal by birds in an experimentally fragmented landscape

Seed dispersal is a crucial component of plant population dynamics. Human landscape modifications, such as habitat destruction and fragmentation, can alter the abundance of fruiting plants and animal dispersers, foraging rates, vector movement, and the composition of the disperser community, all of which can singly or in concert affect seed dispersal. Here, we quantify and tease apart the effects of landscape configuration, namely, fragmentation of primary forest and the composition of the surrounding forest matrix, on individual components of seed dispersal of Heliconia acuminata, an Amazonian understory herb. First we identified the effects of landscape configuration on the abundance of fruiting plants and six bird disperser species. Although highly variable in space and time, densities of fruiting plants were similar in continuous forest and fragments. However, the two largest-bodied avian dispersers were less common or absent in small fragments. Second, we determined whether fragmentation affected foraging rates. Fruit removal rates were similar and very high across the landscape, suggesting that Heliconia fruits are a key resource for small frugivores in this landscape. Third, we used radiotelemetry and statistical models to quantify how landscape configuration influences vector movement patterns. Bird dispersers flew farther and faster, and perched longer in primary relative to secondary forests. One species also altered its movement direction in response to habitat boundaries between primary and secondary forests. Finally, we parameterized a simulation model linking data on fruit density and disperser abundance and behavior with empirical estimates of seed retention times to generate seed dispersal patterns in two hypothetical landscapes. Despite clear changes in bird movement in response to landscape configuration, our simulations demonstrate that these differences had negligible effects on dispersal distances. However, small fragments had reduced densities of Turdus albicollis, the largest-bodied disperser and the only one to both regurgitate and defecate seeds. This change in Turdus abundance acted together with lower numbers of fruiting plants in small fragments to decrease the probability of long-distance dispersal events from small patches. These findings emphasize the importance of foraging style for seed dispersal and highlight the primacy of habitat size relative to spatial configuration in preserving biotic interactions.     

Conservation Value of Remnant Riparian Forest Corridors of Varying Quality for Amazonian Birds and Mammals

Abstract:  Forest corridors are often considered the main instrument with which to offset the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Brazilian forestry legislation requires that all riparian zones on private landholdings be maintained as permanent reserves and sets fixed minimum widths of riparian forest buffers to be retained alongside rivers and perennial streams. We investigated the effects of corridor width and degradation status of 37 riparian forest sites (including 24 corridors connected to large source-forest patches, 8 unconnected forest corridors, and 5 control riparian zones embedded within continuous forest patches) on bird and mammal species richness in a hyper-fragmented forest landscape surrounding Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso, Brazil. We used point-count and track-sampling methodology, coupled with an intensive forest-quality assessment that combined satellite imagery and ground truthed data. Vertebrate use of corridors was highly species-specific, but broad trends emerged depending on species life histories and their sensitivity to disturbance. Narrow and/or highly disturbed riparian corridors retained only a depauperate vertebrate assemblage that was typical of deforested habitats, whereas wide, well-preserved corridors retained a nearly complete species assemblage. Restriction of livestock movement along riparian buffers and their exclusion from key areas alongside deforested streams would permit corridor regeneration and facilitate restoration of connectivity .     

Biodiversity consequences of alternative future land use scenarios in Greater Yellowstone.

Land use is rapidly expanding in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, primarily from growth in the number of rural homes. There is a need to project possible future land use and assess impacts on nature reserves as a guide to future management. We assessed the potential biodiversity impacts of alternative future land use scenarios in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. An existing regression-based simulation model was used to project three alternative scenarios of future rural home development. The spatial patterns of forecasted development were then compared to several biodiversity response variables that included cover types, species habitats, and biodiversity indices. We identified the four biodiversity responses most at risk of exurban development, designed growth management policies to protect these areas, and tested their effectiveness in two alternative future scenarios. We found that the measured biodiversity responses, including riparian habitat, elk winter range, migration corridors, and eight other land cover, habitat, and biodiversity indices, are likely to undergo substantial conversion (between 5% and 40%) to exurban development by 2020. Future habitat conversion to exurban development outside the region's nature reserves is likely to impact wildlife populations within the reserves. Existing growth management policies will provide minimal protection to biodiversity in this region. We identified specific growth management policies, including incentives to cluster future growth near towns, that can protect "at risk" habitat types without limiting overall growth in housing.     

Contribution of Roads to Forest Fragmentation in the Rocky Mountains

The contribution of roads to forest fragmentation has not been adequately analyzed. We quantified fragmentation due to roads in a 30,213-ha section of the Medicine Bow-Routt National Forest in sout heastern Wyoming with several indices of landscape structure using a geographic information system. The number of patches, mean patch area, mean interior area, mean area of edge influence, mean patch perimeter, total perimeter, and mean patch shape identified patch- and edge-related landscape changes. Shannon-Wiener diversity, dominance, contagion, contrast, and angular second moment indicated effects on landscape diversity and texture. Roads added to forest fragmentation more than clearcuts by dissecting large patches into smaller pieces and by converting forest interior habitat into edge habitat. Edge habitat created by roads was 1.54–1.98 times the edge habitat created by clearcuts. The total landscape area affected by clearcuts and roads was 2.5–3.5 times the actual area occupied by these disturbances. Fragmentation due to roads could be minimized if road construction is minimized or rerouted so that its fragmentation effects are reduced. Geographic information system technology can be used to quantify the potential fragmentation effects of individual roads and the cumulative effects of a road network on landscape structure.     

Energy gains predict the distribution of plains bison across populations and ecosystems

Developing tools that help predict animal distribution in the face of environmental change is central to understanding ecosystem function, but it remains a significant ecological challenge. We tested whether a single foraging currency could explain bison (Bison bison) distribution in dissimilar environments: a largely forested environment in Prince Albert National Park (Saskatchewan, Canada) and a prairie environment in Grasslands National Park (Saskatchewan, Canada). We blended extensive behavioral observations, relocations of radio-collared bison, vegetation surveys, and laboratory analyses to spatially link bison distribution in the two parks and expected gains for different nutritional currencies. In Prince Albert National Park, bison were more closely associated with the distribution of plants that maximized their instantaneous energy intake rate (IDE) than their daily intake of digestible energy. This result reflected both bison's intensity of use of individual meadows and their selection of foraging sites within meadows. On this basis, we tested whether IDE could explain the spatial dynamics of bison reintroduced to Grasslands National Park. As predicted, bison distribution in this park best matched spatial patterns of plants offering rapid IDE rather than rapid sodium intake, phosphorus intake, or daily intake of digestible energy. Because the two study areas have very different plant communities, a phenomenological model of resource selection developed in one area could not be used to predict animal distribution in the other. We were able, however, to successfully infer the distribution of bison from their foraging objective. This consistency in foraging currency across ecosystems and populations provides a strong basis for forecasting animal distributions in novel and dynamic environments.     

An Experimental Test of Matrix Permeability and Corridor Use by an Endemic Understory Bird

Abstract:  Because of widespread habitat fragmentation, maintenance of landscape connectivity has become a major focus of conservation planning, but empirical tests of animal movement in fragmented landscapes remain scarce. We conducted a translocation experiment to test the relative permeability of three landscape elements (open habitat, shrubby secondary vegetation, and wooded corridors) to movement by the Chucao Tapaculo ( Scelorchilus rubecula ), a forest understory bird endemic to South American temperate rainforest. Forty-one radio-tagged subjects were translocated (individually) to three landscape treatments consisting of small release patches that were either entirely surrounded by open habitat (pasture), entirely surrounded by dense shrubs, or linked to other patches by wooded corridors that were otherwise surrounded by open matrix. The number of days subjects remained in release patches before dispersal (a measure of habitat resistance) was significantly longer for patches surrounded by open habitat than for patches adjoining corridors or surrounded by dense shrubs. These results indicate that open habitat significantly constrains Chucao dispersal, in accord with expectation, but dispersal occurs equally well through wooded corridors and shrub-dominated matrix. Thus, corridor protection or restoration and management of vegetation in the matrix (to encourage animal movement) may be equally feasible alternatives for maintaining connectivity.     

Use of Riparian Corridors and Vineyards by Mammalian Predators in Northern California

Abstract:  To address increasing fragmentation, conservation biologists have focused on protecting core habitat areas and maintaining connectivity among protected areas. Wildlife corridors, strips of relatively intact habitat designed to connect habitat fragments, may enhance connectivity, but little empirical evidence supports the idea that large mammals prefer to use corridors rather than the surrounding developed landscape. In Sonoma County, a premium wine-grape-growing region in California, we examined mammalian predator use of 21 riparian corridors classified as denuded, narrow, or wide according to the width of the remaining natural vegetation adjacent to the creek. We used unbaited, remotely triggered cameras to determine occurrence of predator species. We also monitored predator use of six vineyards, three close to core habitat and three far from core habitat, with unbaited cameras. Mammalian predator detection rates were 11-fold higher in riparian study areas than in vineyards. More native mammalian predator species were found in wide corridors than in narrow or denuded creek corridors. The number and activity level of native predators was higher in vineyards adjacent to core habitat than in vineyards farther away, where the number and activity level of non-native predators was higher. Maintaining wide and well-vegetated riparian corridors may be important in maintaining the connectivity of native predator populations to ensure their long-term survival.     

Modeling the Effects of Fishing and Implications for the Design of Marine Protected Areas: Juvenile Fish Responses to Variations in Seafloor Habitat

Abstract: A number of recent studies have linked post-settlement survivorship of Atlantic cod (  Gadus morhua ) with the complexity of the seafloor to which fish settle. Survivorship is greater in habitats of higher complexity (e.g., pebble-cobble substratum with emergent epifauna> pebble-cobble> sand), where cover provides shelter from predators. Fishing with mobile gear such as bottom trawls and dredges reduces the complexity of seafloor habitats. We used a dynamic model to (1) link patterns in habitat-mediated survivorship of post-settlement juvenile cod with spatial variations in habitat complexity, (2) simulate habitat change based on fishing activities, and (3) determine the role of marine protected areas in enhancing recruitment success. Density-dependent natural mortality was specified as three alternative functional response curves to assess the influence of different predator foraging strategies on juvenile survivorship during the first 12 months of demersal existence. We applied the model to a theoretical patch of hard-bottom substrata and to a case study based on seafloor habitat distributions at Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (Gulf of Maine, Northwest Atlantic). Our results demonstrate that patterns in the shape of response surfaces that show the relationship between juvenile cod survivorship and density as well as movement rate were similar regardless of functional response type, that juvenile cod movement rates and post-settlement density were critical for predicting the effects of marine protected-area size on survivorship, and that habitat change caused by fishing has significant negative effects on juvenile cod survivorship and use of marine protected areas can ameliorate such effects.