中国大陆入境旅游与国内旅游经济时空差异研究

以大陆31个省级区域1997—2013年的数据为例,利用全局空间自相关指数、局部空间自相关指数、Theil指数、重心及标准差椭圆等时空分析技术,对入境旅游与国内旅游经济时空差异进行比较研究。研究结论主要有:省域入境旅游与国内旅游经济总体上表现出随机分布的空间态势,三大地带内部发展差异逐渐缩小。入境旅游经济与国内旅游经济空间格局具有一定的地域耦合性。入境旅游经济与国内旅游经济具有一定的路径依赖性及锁定效应,1997—2013年时空格局没有发生根本性变化。1997—2013年入境旅游经济重心向西北偏移,国内旅游经济重心向西南偏移,西部旅游发展取得一定的成效。未来需要进一步重视国内旅游发展,尤其是中西部地区。     

1978年以来我国地区差距形成过程中人口流动的影响分析

通过建立人口流动与经济增长之间的计量模型,根据分析可以看出,流动人口在地区间分布的不均衡状况与各地区经济增长的不均衡状况高度相关,大规模的跨区域流动人口对我国各地区经济增长的推动和对区域内或区域问地区差距的形成具有显著的影响作用.在人口流动对分地区经济增长贡献的考察中.我们还发现,改革开放以来我国大规模的跨区域人口流动对地区差距形成的影响趋势明显,在1978-1987年期间,我国的跨区域人口流动增强了全国整体差距、东部地区内部差距和西部地区内部差距的扩大,但却缩小了中部地区内部差距的扩大趋势;而在1996-2003年期间,我国的跨区域人口流动加剧了全国整体差距、中部地区内部差距和西部地区内部差距扩大的事实,但却有效地减缓了东部地区内部差距扩大的趋势.     

云南民族文化旅游产业效益的SSA分析

基于偏离份额分析法(Shift-Share Analysis,简称SSA分析法),研究了2003-2012年十年间云南民族文化旅游产业效益与国内旅游产业效益的关系、云南民族文化旅游产业效益与同期云南省国民生产总值的关系。研究结果表明,云南民族文化旅游产业2003-2012年间总体效益呈逐年增长趋势,总的区域竞争力优势增强,对国内旅游产业效益的贡献也呈现出增长的势头,其效益在同期云南省国民生产总值中占比也呈逐年增长趋势。通过分析,结论认为,对于民族文化旅游资源富集、资源品位较好的云南来说,加强民族文化建设,大力发展民族文化旅游,将民族文化旅游作为当地的支柱产业来发展,从政策、资金等方面给予大力支持,使民族文化旅游业成为区域经济新的增长点,是一条既能传承民族文化又能带动当地经济发展的成功之路。     

土地要素对中国城市经济增长的贡献分析

在经济快速发展与城市化进程不断推进的背景下,将土地要素纳入经济增长模型,研究城市建设用地对二三产业增长的贡献,探索城市土地要素的产出弹性是否具有空间相关性及空间溢出效应具有较强的现实意义。鉴于已有研究大多利用省级面板数据,本文基于C-D生产函数,构建中国285个地级市2003-2012年的空间面板数据模型,分析城市建设用地投入对全国以及东、中、西三大区域经济增长的贡献。研究表明:1土地要素投入与城市经济增长具有显著的空间相关性,显著的Moran指数说明二者在空间上呈现集聚状态,空间计量模型估计结果显示土地要素不仅对本地区经济增长起到促进作用,而且不同程度地影响周边城市的经济发展,即存在一定的空间溢出效应。2土地要素对我国城市的经济增长具有促进作用,但贡献程度小于劳动力与资本,贡献率分别为3.46%、58.07%和11.39%,说明我国城市的经济增长较多依赖劳动力和资本投资,土地要素虽具有不可取代之处但贡献程度相对较小;3由于我国不同区域处在不同经济发展阶段,土地要素对区域经济增长的贡献程度也不同,表现在中部地区最高(10.79%),西部次之(4.28%),东部最低(2.17%)。此外,土地要素贡献的溢出效应随着区域不同而相异,全国范围以及东部地区和西部地区表现为正向溢出,中部地区表示为负向溢出。鉴于土地要素对不同区域的贡献程度及溢出效应不同,提出具有针对性的对策建议使城市建设用地对我国不同类型城市经济增长的贡献达到最佳效果。     

中国旅游经济增长源泉分解及其时空演化特征

依据数据包络分析法、最佳产出函数以及SDA两极分解法,构建了测算旅游经济增长源泉的非参数分解框架,并以2005~2012年中国30省份的旅游业为研究单元,结合投入与产出指标数据,对旅游经济增长源泉进行分解与测算。研究表明:2005~2012年,全要素生产率对旅游经济增长的贡献正逐步超过资源要素投入,成为推动中国旅游经济增长的主要源泉,相应贡献率从2006年的49.01%上升到2012年的82.18%,其中技术进步是全要素生产率贡献攀升的关键,而技术效率特别是其中的规模效率对旅游经济增长的贡献相对较小,且处于下滑态势,纯技术效率的影响微乎其微,资源要素投入的贡献率则从2006年的50.99%下降到2012年的26.52%;分区域来看,各区域旅游经济增长源泉的变化存在一定差异,使得中部、西部旅游经济增速超越东部,其中中部地区旅游经济增速加快主要受规模效率驱动,而西部地区则主要受纯技术效率驱动,并呈现出2005~2008年资源要素投入驱动与2009~2012年全要素生产率驱动两个阶段;从2006年到2012年中国旅游经济增长方式愈发趋于集约型,越来越多省区旅游业的全要素生产率贡献超过资源要素投入贡献,旅游经济增长更多地依靠全要素生产率驱动。     

区域旅游业碳排放及其影响因素——基于旅游流动性视角

旅游业在促进经济增长的同时,带来的负面环境影响也不容忽视。首先,借鉴流体力学理论构建"旅游流动性"概念,对区域旅游流动性进行测度,并在此基础上分析其时空演变特征。其次,基于"自下而上"法,考虑区域能源结构的差异,引入修订后的综合碳排放系数测算2000—2017年中国区域旅游业碳排放量,同时对旅游流动性与旅游业碳排放之间的关系进行探讨。最后,以旅游流动性为核心解释变量,基于IPAT模型选择旅游者人数、旅游者人均消费支出、区域技术水平以及航空客运量作为控制变量,分析各影响因素对旅游业碳排放的作用。研究结果表明:(1)研究期内,中国区域旅游流动性整体水平持续提升,省际差距明显,其均值处于235～11 695人km之间。旅游流动性的分布具备明显梯度特征,长期保持"东部地区中部地区东北地区西部地区"的空间格局,其高值区和中高值区逐步由东部的经济发达省区向西部及东北地区扩张演化。(2)中国区域旅游业碳排放量从4 120.70万t增加至20 365.59万t。旅游业碳排放和旅游流动性的马太效应明显,在空间上以京沪粤、甘青宁为核心呈现"高流动高排放"、"低流动低排放"的集聚特征。(3)中国区域旅游业碳排放受到多种因素的共同影响,其中,核心解释变量旅游流动性对旅游业碳排放的影响显著,具体表现为U型曲线关系;控制变量航空客运量、旅游者人数、旅游者人均消费支出的作用强度依次减小,上述变量分别增加1%将导致旅游业碳排放量各增加0.33%、0.27%和0.15%。区域技术水平对旅游业碳排放的影响不显著。     

我国大陆区域旅游业发展优势的动态比较

依据近10年相关数据资料，从旅游总人数、旅游总收入及其占GDP比例、入境旅游区位熵和国内旅游区位熵五方面对我国各旅游带的发展优势进行了动态比较与分析，结果显示：（1）我国近10年各旅游带游客总量与旅游收入都呈明显增长趋势，但各带间的旅游业发展差异越来越明显，其中吴越文化旅游带发展优势最明显；（2）各年度旅游收入占GDP的比例呈波浪式变化，但总体上略呈上升趋势。其中京华古今、吴越文化、岭南文化三大带旅游业对经济发展的贡献较大；（3）各旅游带之间入境旅游区位熵相差较大，但总体有逐步缩小趋势，其中丝路寻踪、岭南文化与世界屋脊旅游带在吸引入境游客方面具有较明显竞争优势；各带之间国内旅游区位熵相差不大，旅游竞争差异不明显。     

廉江旅游产业发展的战略研究

随着经济全面发展,旅游业已经成为世界经济文化发展的重要组成部分,跃升为极具发展前景和潜力的产业,国内各地区的旅游业呈现出强劲增长的势头,然而广东省廉江市的旅游产业仍处于初级阶段,没有得到很好的开发利用,在此背景下,我们利用实地调研的资料,运用SWOT分析法,对廉江市的旅游现状进行评价,探讨其发展所面临的优势、劣势、机会与挑战,就如何解决存在的问题,发挥廉江自身的资源优势,开展特色旅游,促进经济社会的可持续发展,进行了战略分析和研究。     

长江经济带入境旅游经济时空格局动态性——基于ESDA&GWR法

以5 a为时间间隔,运用ESDA法采用旅游外汇收入平均增长量和平均增长率指标,研究长江经济带126个市域单元2000~2015年入境旅游经济的空间格局演化特征,运用GWR法分析入境旅游经济影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明:(1)长江经济带旅游外汇收入平均增长量莫兰指数经历了0.164 6~0.164 1~0.057 2的变化趋势,增量相似市域由较强集聚向较弱集聚转化,市域旅游经济增长趋于均衡。一级热点区始终位于江浙沿海市域。一级冷点区由研究区中部向苏北转移,空间范围大大缩小。(2)长江经济带旅游外汇收入平均增长率莫兰指数表现为0.098 6~0.293 1~0.198 9的变化趋势,市域之间旅游经济增长关联程度增强,总体差异逐渐缩小。一级冷热点区大幅度转移,同时热点区范围大幅度扩大。后期热点市域数量大大超过冷点市域数量。(3)入境旅游发展较为落后的湖南省、云南省增长速度最快,长三角城市群所属市域始终是入境旅游经济增长最活跃的地区。     

长江经济带入境旅游经济时空格局动态性——基于ESDA&GWR法

以5 a为时间间隔，运用ESDA法采用旅游外汇收入平均增长量和平均增长率指标，研究长江经济带126个市域单元2000~2015年入境旅游经济的空间格局演化特征，运用GWR法分析入境旅游经济影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明：（1）长江经济带旅游外汇收入平均增长量莫兰指数经历了 0.164 6~0.164 1~0.057 2的变化趋势，增量相似市域由较强集聚向较弱集聚转化，市域旅游经济增长趋于均衡。一级热点区始终位于江浙沿海市域。一级冷点区由研究区中部向苏北转移，空间范围大大缩小。（2）长江经济带旅游外汇收入平均增长率莫兰指数表现为 0.098 6~0.293 1~0.198 9 的变化趋势，市域之间旅游经济增长关联程度增强，总体差异逐渐缩小。一级冷热点区大幅度转移，同时热点区范围大幅度扩大。后期热点市域数量大大超过冷点市域数量。（3）入境旅游发展较为落后的湖南省、云南省增长速度最快，长三角城市群所属市域始终是入境旅游经济增长最活跃的地区。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.