浙江省粮食贸易中的虚拟水研究

贸易中的虚拟水研究使人们认识到地区的水资源危机可以通过全球性的经济贸易来缓解。虚拟水的进出口是水资源的一个来源，通过贸易的形式、利用各种外部资源来缓解内部水资源的紧缺，最终解决水资源短缺和粮食安全问题，是社会实现水资源社会化管理、生态环境安全和社会经济可持续发展的战略保障。以浙江省为研究对象，首先利用各类农作物虚拟水含量标准，核算了1997~2006年10 a间浙江省粮食贸易的虚拟水含量。然后比较浙江省全年用水量和用水结构，计算得出粮食贸易产生的年净进口虚拟水量占浙江省年总用水量7.41%左右，占到年农业灌溉用水的1717%。研究结果表明，过去10 a浙江省粮食贸易的虚拟水是浙江省水资源的一个重要的补充。〖     

规划管制下土地发展权受限的多情景测度:数量与价值

在统筹推进国土空间规划及用途管制的背景下,揭示土地发展权受限的数量及其价值,对于完善中国空间治理体系、解决不平衡不充分发展尤其是区域差异问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章以湖北省为"生态资源优势区"代表性省份,首先运用柯布-道格拉斯(C-D)生产函数模型测算各生产要素在农业与非农业部门中对经济增长的弹性以及土地资源在两部门的边际收益,揭示土地发展权受限的客观现实和成因;然后基于缩小湖北省与"经济发展优势区"经济发展差距的不同情景,测度2009—2018年湖北因处于生态资源优势区而使土地发展权受限的数量与价值。结果显示:(1)土地要素投入对湖北省经济增长具有重要影响。2009—2018年,湖北省非农部门经济增长仍依赖土地要素投入,且土地要素对经济增长的贡献难以被其他生产要素替代。(2)高额的机会成本是土地资源由农业部门向非农部门转移的重要潜在驱动力。2009—2018年,湖北省非农部门的土地边际收益是农业部门的17.03~44.14倍,且呈逐年递增趋势,规划管制的存在导致了土地发展权受限。(3)规划管制背景下,对受限的土地发展权进行补偿具有必要性和可行性。在经济发展水平差距缩小10%~100%的不同情景下,2009—2018年湖北省土地发展权受限数量处于0.53×104~5.35×104hm2之间,对应的价值量占同时期"经济发展优势区"总GDP的比重较低,为0.02%~0.19%。基于此,应开展土地发展权受限补偿的制度建设,从土地发展权产权确认和利益分配机制改革两方面量化和落实土地发展权,并以对土地发展权的底线补偿情景为起点逐步提高土地发展权补偿水平,直至实现完全补偿。     

新疆虚拟水和水足迹的核算及其影响分析

通过利用投入产出模型对新疆生产和消费水足迹以及虚拟水贸易进行定量核算,研究结果发现:1内部水足迹在消费水足迹中占80%,农业对内部水足迹贡献最大。2新疆是虚拟水净出口地区,2007年虚拟水出口量为329×108m3,占总生产水足迹的67%,全区总用水量的56%,农业对虚拟水出口贡献最大;而大部分工业部门表现为虚拟水净进口。建议新疆加快农业产业化由劳动密集型向劳动、资本、技术、品牌融合性转变,优化出口结构,均衡经济用水和生态用水的比例,实现经济与生态环境的可持续发展。     

2003～2011年四川省各市(州)农业水足迹时空变化与驱动力研究

运用水足迹理论和计算方法,系统分析了四川省各市(州)2003~2011年农业水足迹的时空动态变化趋势与农业水资源利用效益,并采用灰色关联度法分析其驱动力因素。研究结果表明:(1)四川省各市(州)农业水足迹和人均农业水足迹均呈增加的趋势变化,成都市、南充市、达州市农业水足迹较大,2011年农业水足迹分别达82.44×108,45.56×108,41.02×108 m3。人均农业水足迹各市(州)差距不大,其中成都市和攀枝花市略高。(2)农业水资源利用效益方面显示:四川省各市(州)农业水足迹净贸易量均为正值,属于农业水资源净输出地。2006、2009、2010和2011年农业水资源匮乏度较高,成都市水资源紧缺度最高,2005~2010年均在200%以上。(3)驱动因素方面显示:耕地复种指数和人口总数是农业水足迹变化的关键驱动因素,关联度分别是0.643 3和0.632 5。建议提高水资源利用效益,适当控制高耗水农产品生产规模,合理配置水资源,实现空间和季节用水的协调性。     

最终需求的完全碳排放强度变动及其影响因素分析

区别于传统视角的碳排放强度研究,本文从供给和需求,产出和增加值的内在联系出发,提出了最终需求视角下的完全碳排放强度及其消费的完全碳排放强度、投资的完全碳排放强度和出口的完全碳排放强度相关概念和计算方法,并根据合并WIOD形成的1996-2009年的中国非竞争型投入产出表完成了对各类完全碳排放强度的测算,以及对完全碳排放强度的变动的直接贡献率分解,同时对各类完全碳排放强度的变动进行了直接碳排放系数效应、中间投入技术结构效应、增加值系数效应和最终需求规模效应4种驱动因素的SDA分解。结果显示:第一,期间消费的完全碳排放强度均小于投资和出口的完全碳排放强度,且消费的完全碳排放强度对完全碳排放强度变动的直接贡献率要大于投资和出口,表明消费中隐含的碳排放与增加值的比例沿着"集约型"路径不断优化,而出口和投资的增长路径则相对"粗放"。第二,各类完全碳排放强度的减排路径大体一致,直接碳排放系数效应为正,而中间投入技术结构效应、增加值系数效应和最终需求规模效应均为负,暗含投入产出结构、各类需求的隐含增加值系数以及规模变动对碳排放强度下降并没有起到积极作用,而主要源泉还是直接碳排放系数下降。其中直接碳排放系数、中间产品技术结构效应和增加值系数效应的变化在投资的完全碳排放强度中作用较大,而最终需求规模的变化在消费的完全碳排放强度中作用较大。第三,各类完全碳排放强度变化以及其背后的驱动力具有明显的分阶段特征。2002-2004年投资和出口的完全碳排放强度变化促使了完全碳排放强度上升,而2004-2009年则对完全碳排放强度的下降有一定的正贡献。入世以前增加值系数对各类需求的完全碳排放强度下降的贡献为正,而其后贡献为负。其中,在2003-2007年投资和出口的完全碳排放强度变化中表现更为明显。因此,降低碳排放强度是一项系统工程,减排技术仍是最直接和有效的措施,而需求模式调整也是降低碳排放强度的重要手段之一,特别是降低出口和投资的中隐含碳和提高出口和投资中的增加值率,同时也要警惕消费结构变动中如汽车等高能耗产品普及带来的不利影响。     

中国电力行业的全周期碳足迹北大核心CSCDCSSCI

在碳达峰与碳中和目标下,国家层面与各省份均在积极推动碳减排。电力行业作为我国最大的排放部门成为减排重点之一,然而电力行业存在的隐含碳排放造成实际排放低估,省际间碳转移导致省级碳减排不公平问题突出。因此识别电力行业全周期碳足迹,尤其是不同省份的隐含碳足迹以及省际间的转移碳足迹特征,有助于正确评估电力行业碳排放,科学界定不同省份的碳减排责任并合理分配。通过构建电力行业全周期点-流模型以揭示电力产业链中存在的能源活动,进而明确基于用电侧考虑的2018年全周期碳足迹,并刻画碳隐含度与碳转移依赖度指标来分析电力行业的隐含碳排放与省间转移碳排放。研究表明:(1)我国电力行业全周期碳排放系数为689 g/(kW·h),排放量为4.747×10^(9)t,其中北方大部分地区排放系数偏高,山东最高达891 g/(kW·h),南方地区偏低,云南最低仅101 g/(kW·h)。(2)全国电力行业全周期碳隐含度为8.95%,东南沿海贫煤省与煤炭生产高排放省的碳隐含度偏高,贵州最高达14.63%,西北、华北富煤省的碳隐含度偏低,新疆最低仅4.94%;全国隐含碳排放量为4.25×10^(8)t,广东隐含碳排放量最高达5.0×10^(7)t,青海最低仅1.17×10^(6)t。(3)全国电力行业全周期碳转移量为9.26×10^(8)t,约占排放总量的19.5%,电力与煤炭自给率越低的省区对外碳转移依赖度越高,其中北京最高达71.24%;内蒙古、山西、陕西、宁夏、安徽、新疆、贵州是主要碳转入省,总转入7.11×10^(8)t,其中内蒙古最高达2.64×10^(8)t;江苏、浙江、广东、山东、河北、北京、辽宁、河南、上海是主要碳转出省,总转出6.92×108t,其中江苏最高达1.12×10^(8)t;全国共有240对省存在碳转移,其中有102对的转移量超过1.0×10^(6)t。在研究基础上,提出相应建议推动省级电力行业公平合理低碳发展。     

农产品贸易中虚拟水流的驱动因素研究

经济发展中的虚拟水贸易实施受到多种要素的影响与制约。在回顾当前虚拟水研究进展的基础上,从自然、经济、社会、生态、技术和政策六个维度系统分析了以农产品为主要载体的虚拟水贸易实施的影响因素,进而收集32个典型的虚拟水贸易实施国家的横截面数据,利用多元逐步回归的方法,以虚拟水对外依赖程度为因变量,对部分影响因素进行了实证检验,并根据实证结果从资源优化配置与区域经济贡献的角度解释了国内学者研究得出的我国区际间农产品虚拟水的流动格局。研究表明:耕地资源及水资源的稀缺程度、区域经济发展水平、社会调适能力是虚拟水进口的正向驱动因素,而农业用水效率则是虚拟水进口的逆向驱动因素。     

江苏省水资源利用、水环境保护与国民经济发展关系分析

资源与环境是人类社会赖以生存和发展的物质基础，利用投入产出技术，能定量地研究国民经济发展与资源环境的关系，指导国民经济产业结构向着资源与环境可持续方向健康发展。以作者所编制的2002年江苏省水资源利用、水污染防治投入产出表为基础，通过计算2002年江苏省国民经济各部门直接用水系数与完全用水系数以及COD直接排放系数与完全排放系数，深入分析了各部门对水资源的使用情况和水环境的消耗情况；利用投入产出价格模型，分析和测度了水资源费与排污费征收标准单独变动及同时变动等5种不同情况下江苏省国民经济各部门产品价格的变化率，进一步分析研究了水资源费与排污费征收标准调整对国民经济各部门的影响；最后依据上述计算分析结果，给出了江苏省国民经济不同行业今后调整的一些建议和意见.     

城市用水的社会成本核算

城市用水的社会成本是城市社会为用水而直接或间接支付的、以市场价核算的全部成本总和。基于城市用水的生命周期,初步建立城市用水的社会成本核算方法体系框架,将城市用水的社会成本分为取水、制水、供水、排水和污水处理五个部分。以A市为案例的城市用水社会成本定量研究表明,一是A市的城市用水实际投入支出偏低,不足以覆盖相应成本(2015年城市用水供给端的实际投入8 000万元,低于同口径核算成本11 893万元,排放端的实际投入7 000万元,低于同口径核算成本8 183万元)。二是A市城市用水全社会成本至少为6.23元/t,而当地目前实际的居民用水平均价格为2.05元/t,无法体现城市社会为用水而支付的全部成本,难以反映城市水资源的真实价值。三是假定基于社会成本定价,A市居民人均年用水支出占当地居民人均可支配收入的1.2%,完全符合居民承受范围。四是城市用水的社会成本核算方法具有一般可行性,随着成本信息公开制度建立健全,将推动核算更具普适性和准确性。五是城市用水的社会成本核算有助于推动城市用水管理市场化改革,具体体现在推动实现使用者付费、拓展PPP模式应用范围、健全水务市场竞争机制、降低财政支付压力等方面。建议基于社会成本核算制定水价,通过水价真实、客观、显性化地反映城市用水的社会成本;基于社会成本定价改革水务市场运作模式,切实发挥市场在水资源配置中的作用;进一步提高城市用水成本信息公开程度,为水价政策的科学制定和执行监督提供基本保障。     

1994～2013年安徽省森林生物量与生产力动态变化分析

基于1994~2013年间4期森林资源清查数据,采用生物量换算因子连续函数法,对安徽省森林生物量与生产力进行估算,并从不同龄级和不同林分类型两方面对其动态变化进行分析。研究结果表明:近20a安徽省森林资源数量和质量都在稳步提高,总生物量由1994~1998年的106.114×106 t增加到2009~2013年的204.925×10~6 t,总净生产量由28.239×10~6 t/a增加到43.865×10~6 t/a;林分平均生物量从31.516t/hm增加到57.073t/hm~2,平均生产力从7.797t/(hm~2·a)增加到11.127t/(hm~2·a)。不同龄级中,中幼龄林占林分生物量和生产量的比例相对较大,近20年都在60%以上,但随着安徽省生态建设力度的不断加大,中幼龄林所占比例正在逐步下降;不同林分类型生物量和生产量估算结果显示,安徽省森林资源正逐渐由单一林分为主向多种林分共同占优的方向转变,表明森林资源的组成结构在进一步改善。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.