Risks, risk taking, and societal decisions

Risk assessment is an important tool to help evaluate the appropriate course for social decisions. But this methodology does not appear to have played a significant role in such decisions. Moreover, public decisions often appear to be at wide variance with what course risk assessment would counsel. In this paper risk is defined, the nature of risk taking is examined, and risk assessment issues in terms of societal decisions are identified. Eight such issues are listed as technical challenges for risk assessors to take into consideration if their analyses are to be more successful in influencing public policy. Finally, the paper suggests two operative guidelines to improve the effectiveness of risk assessment influence on social decisions. One is to recognize that risk assessment is only one input, albeit an important one, to such decisions. The other is to strive for simplicity without loss of completeness or exactness.     

An examination of ecological risk assessment and management practices

Ecological risk assessment has grown and evolved since the 1980s, as have new challenges (e.g. global climate change, loss of habitat and biodiversity and the effects of multiple anthropogenic chemicals on ecological systems) that need to be factored into the risk assessment processes. There is also an on-going shift from evaluating adverse health impacts on particular, often small scale, environments to undertaking more complex ecological assessments of whole populations and communities across ecologically meaningful landscapes. These trends are generating an increased demand for much more complex ecological assessments, making it increasingly clear that to achieve its potential as a management tool, methods must be developed to apply ecological risk assessment to larger and more complex scales. This paper reviews the development of the ecological risk assessment paradigm in the United States, identifies ways it is being applied and adapted in other countries, explores future research needs and practice improvements, and examines current issues that need to be considered in taking forward the scientific development of ecological risk assessment as a useful environmental management tool.     

Psychological and sociological approaches to study risk perception

Technological progress and its impacts on humankind has caused an increasing awareness of risk, and objective, statistical estimations are often inadequate to alleviate the public's fright and fear. Research on risk perception using psychological and sociological approaches is trying to bridge this gap. As a first step, a distinction must be made between the technical definition of risk (probability X consequences) and the social definition, in which additional parameters (source, dimensions, timeframe, exposure) need to be included. The methodology of risk assessment, though objective by design, is limited in the interpretability of its results, if the calculation of consequences does not take public perceptions and social effects into account. The problems and advantages of risk assessment are discussed, and the key question for risk perception research are presented. Various techniques are available to study risk perception and attitudes towards risk; selection of a specific technique is determined by the objective of the research, namely sociological implications or psychological cognitions. Several empirical studies in both areas are presented and the results discussed.     

Information needs related to teaching about air quality

Translating knowledge of air quality into a form that can be understood by students and the general public is a major challenge for scientists, public officials, and teachers. Social science studies have shown that both educators and the general public are relatively uninformed about recent findings in environmental research. It is especially difficult to get students of today excited about environmental issues because environmental education has become institutionalized. Students believe they know about major environmental problems even when their knowledge is rudimentary or even wrong. One problem in getting public attention is the general level of hyperbole and hysteria common in most media. Thus, do we try to be even more shrill and apocalyptic than other advocates clamoring for public notice, or should we refuse to participate in this competition for attention?A model is presented to bring K-12 teachers, scientists, and students together to develop innovative, inquiry-based, active learning materials for environmental education. Curricular materials utilizing the discovery process can be created and tested in an iterative process that incorporates the results of current science research into highly effective teaching materials for schools. Following extensive evaluative procedures and review, exemplary materials are prepared for publication. This collaborative method also gives teachers and students a more realistic understanding of how science works by giving them access to active scientists and practical scientific experience.Finally, we argue that scientists need to reveal why they care about environmental issues. It is not enough to remain aloof and objective. If we are going to motivate students and the public to make changes in their lives, we need to make a convincing case for the importance of air quality and what it means in practical terms to our common environment.     

Cumulative health risk assessment of 17 perfluoroalkylated and polyfluoroalkylated substances (PFASs) in the Swedish population

Humans are simultaneously exposed to a multitude of chemicals. Human health risk assessment of chemicals is, however, normally performed on single substances, which may underestimate the total risk, thus bringing a need for reliable methods to assess the risk of combined exposure to multiple chemicals. Per- and polyfluoroalkylated substances (PFASs) is a large group of chemicals that has emerged as global environmental contaminants. In the Swedish population, 17 PFASs have been measured, of which the vast majority lacks human health risk assessment information. The objective of this study was to for the first time perform a cumulative health risk assessment of the 17 PFASs measured in the Swedish population, individually and in combination, using the Hazard Index (HI) approach. Swedish biomonitoring data (blood/serum concentrations of PFASs) were used and two study populations identified: 1) the general population exposed indirectly via the environment and 2) occupationally exposed professional ski waxers. Hazard data used were publicly available toxicity data for hepatotoxicity and reproductive toxicity as well as other more sensitive toxic effects. The results showed that PFASs concentrations were in the low ng/ml serum range in the general population, reaching high ng/ml and low μg/ml serum concentrations in the occupationally exposed. For those congeners lacking toxicity data with regard to hepatotoxicity and reproductive toxicity read-across extrapolations was performed. Other effects at lower dose levels were observed for some well-studied congeners. The risk characterization showed no concern for hepatotoxicity or reproductive toxicity in the general population except in a subpopulation eating PFOS-contaminated fish, illustrating that high local exposure may be of concern. For the occupationally exposed there was concern for hepatotoxicity by PFOA and all congeners in combination as well as for reproductive toxicity by all congeners in combination, thus a need for reduced exposure was identified. Concern for immunotoxicity by PFOS and for disrupted mammary gland development by PFOA was identified in both study populations as well as a need of additional toxicological data for many PFAS congeners with respect to all assessed endpoints.     

Recent trends and developments in dialogue on radioactive waste management: experience from the UK

This paper highlights some recent trends and developments in dialogue on radioactive waste management in the UK. In particular, it focuses on the use of dialogue around options for the management of risk, and describes techniques for stakeholder dialogue in the field of radioactive waste management. The paper summarises past and on-going experience in the UK, and provides an overview of some practical examples from decommissioning of the former reprocessing facility at Dounreay in Scotland. In common with developments and trend in other countries, the UK has moved to a position where there is now widespread recognition that radioactive waste management requires not only sound technical assessment of risk, but also public participation, consultation and stakeholder dialogue on proposed solutions and the associated risks. In fact, the shift of position has arguably been quite pronounced, with formal procedures to identify, clarify and integrate stakeholders' issues and concerns within the decision-making processes. Experience suggests that citizens are capable of engaging with complex technical issues such as radioactive waste. Indeed, the earlier in the decision-making process that public and stakeholder engagement (PSE) occurs--for example, on the consideration of options and alternatives--the greater the chance of reaching a successful outcome that properly reflects the values and opinions of stakeholders. In the UK, the assessment of alternative waste management options is increasingly being addressed through Best Practical Environmental Option (BPEO) studies. Responses to stakeholder engagement processes and experience of conducting BPEO studies emphasise that consultation must be open, transparent, deliberative and inclusive. However, while early consideration of generic approaches and option choices is necessary to generate a climate of openness and understanding, it remains essential to fully engage with local stakeholder and community groups to consider issues associated with proposed developments at a site-specific level. An interesting area where further attention may be warranted is the use in final decision-making of the results from participatory processes such as BPEO studies. Demonstrating clearly that participants' views have influenced decisions appears to be essential for retaining legitimacy and trust, confidence and goodwill.     

Legitimate adaptive flood risk governance beyond the dikes: the cases of Hamburg,Helsinki and Rotterdam

It has recently been recommended that a shift from traditional flood prevention to more adaptive strategies is made, focusing on the reduction in and recovery from flood impacts as a means to improve resilience to climate impacts. This shift has had implications for the public–private divide in adaptive flood risk governance. In an urban context, it means that private actors such as developers and residents come into play, necessitating governance arrangements which cross the public–private divide. The division of responsibilities for water safety between the public and private sectors affects the way legitimacy is gained for these arrangements and raises new legitimacy issues. The paper offers an analysis of public and private responsibilities in adaptive flood risk governance arrangements, as well as of the legitimacy of the arrangements in the light of the public–private divide. A comparative case study is presented for three urban regeneration projects in un-embanked areas in Hamburg, Germany, Helsinki, Finland, and Rotterdam, the Netherlands, where adaptive strategies have been applied. The results show that network arrangements with joint public–private responsibilities use direct forms of participation and deliberation, but that these do not necessarily lead to more legitimate arrangements in the eyes of stakeholders as is often suggested in the literature. Both network and more public hierarchical arrangements can be perceived as quite legitimate under certain conditions.     

Ways of improving the management of environmental risks

From the public's discovery of environmental quality in the late 1960s to the present, there has been increasing recognition that a more systematic approach is required to manage risks and to achieve the gains at low cost. Such a systematic approach must begin with risk identification, then go on to risk assessment, consideration of management options, a decision analysis of the options, and an examination of strategies for reducing loss. One of the most difficult aspects of environmental risk management is setting goals. There is a tendency to engage in rhetoric about zero risks and a pristine environment. However, moving toward more realistic goals requires consideration of what is an acceptable risk level. This level cannot be defined without knowing the benefits that come with the risk and the costs of reducing the risk. More generally, the criteria for selecting a risk management strategy include the residual level of risk, efficiency in reducing risk, equity, administrative simplicity, and public acceptability. A number of frameworks are currently used by U.S. regulatory agencies to manage risk: no-risk, risk-risk, technology-based standards, risk-benefit, cost-effectiveness, regulatory budget, and benefit-cost analysis. In specifying that an agency must use one of these frameworks, the U.S. Congress is implicitly specifying the goals for risk reduction. It appears to be easier for the U.S. Congress to specify a framework than a goal. Some of the nonregulatory means of managing risk include the market, and legal mechanisms. These risk management institutions have been effective and are a necessary part of any risk management program.     

Areas of uncertainty in comparing risks of energy systems

In the past, the safety of technology has mainly been ensured by deterministic criteria that were based on engineering principles and on experience. Recently, however, it has become necessary to include risk assessment into safety policy. This need arises due to the order of magnitude of possible health and environmental impact from normal operation or accidents, as well as the complexity of modern systems that no longer allow for intuitive understanding of possible accident sequences. Assessment of risks of technical installations is subject to large uncertainties that are caused by lack of data and inadequate quantification and evaluation methods. This paper reviews the main areas of uncertainties with regard to their importance for decisionmaking. Uncertainties are an inherent part of any risk assessment result and can never be avoided. It is thus important to pay particular attention to them including limitations of methods, sensitivity to assumptions about parameters, and site-specific considerations. All this information must be described in great detail so that it can be integrated into the decisionmaking process. If applied in this context, risk assessment is a useful tool for identifying major contributors to risk and effective actions of risk management.     

Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks

There is growing demand among stakeholders across public and private institutions for spatially-explicit information regarding vulnerability to climate change at the local scale. However, the challenges associated with mapping the geography of climate change vulnerability are non-trivial, both conceptually and technically, suggesting the need for more critical evaluation of this practice. Here, we review climate change vulnerability mapping in the context of four key questions that are fundamental to assessment design. First, what are the goals of the assessment? A review of published assessments yields a range of objective statements that emphasize problem orientation or decision-making about adaptation actions. Second, how is the assessment of vulnerability framed? Assessments vary with respect to what values are assessed (vulnerability of what) and the underlying determinants of vulnerability that are considered (vulnerability to what). The selected frame ultimately influences perceptions of the primary driving forces of vulnerability as well as preferences regarding management alternatives. Third, what are the technical methods by which an assessment is conducted? The integration of vulnerability determinants into a common map remains an emergent and subjective practice associated with a number of methodological challenges. Fourth, who participates in the assessment and how will it be used to facilitate change? Assessments are often conducted under the auspices of benefiting stakeholders, yet many lack direct engagement with stakeholders. Each of these questions is reviewed in turn by drawing on an illustrative set of 45 vulnerability mapping studies appearing in the literature. A number of pathways for placing vulnerability mapping on a more robust footing are also identified.     

Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach

Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties.     

Molecular profiling--a tool for addressing emerging gaps in the comparative risk assessment of GMOs

Assessing the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is required by both international agreement and domestic legislation. Many view the use of the "omics" tools for profiling classes of molecules as useful in risk assessment, but no consensus has formed on the need or value of these techniques for assessing the risks of all GMOs. In this and many other cases, experts support case-by-case use of molecular profiling techniques for risk assessment. We review the latest research on the applicability and usefulness of molecular profiling techniques for GMO risk assessment. As more and more kinds of GMOs and traits are developed, broader use of molecular profiling in a risk assessment may be required to supplement the comparative approach to risk assessment. The literature-based discussions on the use of profiling appear to have settled on two findings: 1. profiling techniques are reliable and relevant, at least no less so than other techniques used in risk assessment; and 2. although not required routinely, regulators should be aware of when they are needed. The dismissal of routine molecular profiling may be confusing to regulators who then lack guidance on when molecular profiling might be worthwhile. Molecular profiling is an important way to increase confidence in risk assessments if the profiles are properly designed to address relevant risks and are applied at the correct stage of the assessment.     

Overview and definition of risk: Its assessment and management

Risk assessment includes both risk estimation (identifying hazards and estimating their outcomes and probabilities) and risk evaluation (determining the significance or value of risks to those concerned with or affected by the decision). Risk estimation is about situations, and risk evaluation about the effect on people. Few situations are absolutely safe. Risks need to be estimated, and for many kinds of risk (e.g., exposures to potentially toxic substances or to potentially catastrophic situations) an expert view has to be formed, which must take account of associated uncertainties. Different sections of the public perceive risk in different ways, and regard some risks more seriously than the expert estimates. Thus studies of risk perception form a further input into the decision-making process. Another input is the benefit of the activity. A regulatory framework consistent with the reality of risk estimation has been proposed. Since risks and benefits fall on different parts of the community, the decision process is essentially political, though it must be informed scientifically. How the decision is taken will depend on national governmental practices.     

Mainstreaming of climate extreme risk into fiscal and budgetary planning: application of stochastic debt and disaster fund analysis in Austria

While ageing-related costs are perceived as the major drivers of fiscal pressure in the EU, concerns over climate-related public expenditures have received comparatively little attention in securing the EU’s long-term fiscal sustainability. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios as bridging concept for linking the assessment of public cost of demography- and climate-related expenditures, this study proposes a climate risk mainstreaming methodology. We apply a stochastic debt model and assess the potential flood risk in Austria to the public debt and the national disaster fund. Our results indicate that public debt under no fiscal consolidation is estimated to increase from the current level of 84.5% relative to GDP in 2015 to 92.1% in 2030, with macroeconomic variability adding further risk to the country’s baseline public debt trajectory. The study finds that the estimated public contingent liability due to expected flood risk is small relative to the size of economy. The existing earmarked disaster risk reduction (DRR) funding will likely reduce the risk of frequent-and-low impact floods, yet the current budgetary arrangement may be insufficient to deal with rising risk of extreme floods in the future. This prompts the need for further discussions regarding potential reforms of the disaster fund. As many EU member states are in the early stages of designing climate change policy strategies, the proposed method can support the mainstreaming of climate-related concerns into longer-term fiscal and budgetary planning.

     

Experiences from phasing out the use of mercury in Sweden

The Swedish parliament has decided that the use of mercury (Hg) in society should be phased out by the target year 2000 and substituted with alternative, less harmful elements or compounds. This is to reduce exposure to the toxic heavy metal, levels of which have increased two to seven times in the Swedish environment during the last century. Mercury in products and goods in use in Sweden has been estimated at 100 tonnes Hg, which will slowly be released into the environment if no preventative measures are taken. To avoid handing over unsolved environmental problems and connected costs to future generations, the Swedish government commissioned the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to improve the efficiency of Hg collection and to find a solution for terminal storage of the waste. The result is that the Swedish EPA considers deep storage in rock, accompanied by technical measures to further reduce the risk of future Hg emissions to be the safest method. It has funded approximately 50 projects with the goal of spreading information about the Hg problem and removing Hg from society. The projects have focused on areas where there is a great risk of Hg in products and goods entering the environment. About 6 tonnes Hg has so far been collected in these projects – end of 1999 – and the cost of the Hg collected has varied between 70 and 1300 US$ kg^–1 Hg. The projects were more cost-effective than traditional inspection by an official due to local participation, use of Hg-tracker dogs, and employment of professional electricians in the search for Hg. The involvement of school children and the public has resulted in an increased awareness of environmental matters, and, together with the emptying of water seals, reduced Hg levels in municipal sewage sludge. Electronic Publication     

An ethical dimension to sustainable restoration and long-term management of contaminated areas

Experience after the Chernobyl accident has shown that restoration strategies need to consider a wide range of different issues to ensure the long-term sustainability of large and varied contaminated areas. Thus, the criteria by which we evaluate countermeasures need to be extended from simple cost-benefit effectiveness and radiological protection standards to a more integrated, holistic approach, including social and ethical aspects. Within the STRATEGY project, the applicability of many countermeasures is being critically assessed using a wide range of criteria. Attention is being given to issues such as practicability, feasibility, capacity and environmental side-effects, as well as social factors such as public perceptions of risk, communication of information and the need for dialogue and consultation with affected communities, and ethical aspects such as informed consent and the fair distribution of costs and doses. Although such socio-ethical factors are now the subject of a substantial field of research, there has been little attempt to integrate them in a practical context for decision makers. Within this paper, we specifically consider the ethical aspects of restoration strategies and suggest practical means by which these can be taken into account in the decision making process, introducing a value matrix. The paper covers two critical areas: evaluation of individual countermeasures, and use of the matrix to ensure transparent and systematic consideration of values in selection of a restoration strategy.     

Reflections on the process of using systematic review techniques to evaluate the literature regarding the neurotoxicity of low level exposure to organophosphate pesticides

We undertook a systematic review (incorporating meta-analysis) of the literature concerning the neurotoxicity of cumulative low level occupational exposure to organophosphate pesticides, which was published online by the journal Critical Reviews in Toxicology in 2012. As far as we are aware, we were the first research team to attempt quantitative evaluation of study findings on this topic, using meta-analysis. We wish to encourage others to apply systematic review techniques in chemical risk assessment to reduce bias, increase transparency and better inform public policy. We thought it would be useful to share our experience of undertaking a systematic review in the hope of dispelling misconceptions about the complexity, time and resource issues involved along with the view that meta-analysis is meaningless when studies are not homogeneous. In this commentary paper we reflect on aspects of the process which were relatively straightforward; aspects which were more challenging; the advantages of using systematic review techniques; and the advantages and limitations of using statistical techniques such as meta-analysis in this context.     

Sand dunes management: a comparative analysis of ecological versus economic valuations applied to the Coastal region in Israel

Mobile coastal dunes are of significant ecological importance both globally and locally. Yet a large portion of these dunes are disappearing due to encroachment of local shrubs and exotic plants, resulting in changes of floristic and faunal composition, and an overall decrease in biodiversity of coastal systems. Active management is therefore required to maintain mobile dune presence. This study focuses on economic valuation of coastal dunes in Israel, based on public and professional ecological perspectives. This comparison allows reflection on the suitability of a contingent valuation method (CVM) to assess ecological restoration and conservation projects. The CVM was applied in Nizzanim LTER nature reserve in Israel, and concurrently, data of plant species composition on stabilized and mobile dunes were used to calculate the ecological value index (EVI) of the different dune states. The EVI was then transformed into monetary terms by combining the public valuation and the relative proportion of the various species to the total coverage. The monetary values derived from the general public and the ecological assessment were then compared and used to estimate the expected change in economic value resulting from a state shift from mobile to stabilized dunes. According to the CVM, the total value of the Nizzanim coastal dunes would drop from 344 to 197 million Israeli Shekels (NIS) (1 Shekel = $0.39) if active management does not take place, a reduction of 42 % in value. However, results from the EVI indicate only a 33 % decrease in ecological value (in monetary terms) in the absence of active management. We suggest that in this case, general public perception is strong enough to justify conservation decisions, even though they are not professional ecologists. However, we still recommend the use of both measures for land use decision making.     

Assessing the susceptibility of societies to droughts: a political science perspective

In this article we develop a concept for the assessment of state’s susceptibility to drought based on a political science perspective. Different sources of capacities and sensitivities need to be taken into account to assess the overall susceptibility of states as political systems. We argue that the overall susceptibility of a society depends on an interplay of state capacity and readiness as main elements of political susceptibility, wealth and economic sensitivity as elements of economic susceptibility and the degree of social integration. To transform the conceptual model into a susceptibility assessment we developed an inference model in order to generate quantitative indices. For this purpose we apply fuzzy set theory using data from our case study regions, namely Andhra Pradesh (India), the Volga region (Russia) and (Southern) Portugal. The resulting computed trends for Portugal suggest that the society will be able to deal even with severe natural conditions due to existing political, economic, and social conditions. The assessment results for the Indian and Russian case study regions, in contrast, give reason for precaution since the occurrence of drought-induced crisis events seems much more likely in the light of more crucial, overall conditions, namely lower degrees of state capacity and readiness as well as, in the case of India, a high economic susceptibility. However, further improvements are possible given the improved availability of data and the integration of more qualitative information. Additionally, the expansion to further case study regions could help validate the overall concept.     

Challenges for modelling and integrating environmental performances in concept design: the case of an automotive component lightweighting

The objective of this paper is to discuss the main barriers for modelling and integrating the environmental performances in the automotive concept design. Incorporating environmental assessment in the early design phase of a vehicle component is known as an important challenge that car makers need to face in order to develop more sustainable design solutions; in this regard, the Life Cycle Assessment is the most widespread methodology for the environmental assessment and comparison of alternatives. The present work illustrates the combination of such methodology with the traditional design procedure at two different levels of the component design phase, material choice and concept design. In particular, the potential benefits originated by a lightweight solution for the automotive component Throttle Body are evaluated by considering environmental and technical implications at the same level. The case study shows that a multi-disciplinary approach for design effectively allows the integration of the environmental issue in the company’s established procedures. However, interpretation of results is still a challenging aspect due to the inevitable contradicting elements which should not discourage to develop comprehensive sustainability assessment within the early design stage.