基于事故树方法与三角模糊理论耦合的城市火灾风险分析

以消防安全工程学与系统安全工程理论为基础,结合我国城市发展特征及消防安全管理状况,建立城市区域火灾风险事故树;应用模糊重要度法对事故树基本事件进行排序,把导致火灾的因素进行模糊分级。从模糊概率排序以及分级可以看出,城市区域布局、移动消防力量以及人员素质是制约火灾风险的3个主要因素,并与历年来我国城市火灾发生的主要原因相吻合。笔者认为,要从根本上控制城市火灾风险,严格管理3个主要因素对于我国的城市消防安全管理有着非常积极的意义。     

Fire protection as the underpinning of good process safety programs

This paper will provide an overview of the role of fire protection engineers in the mitigation phase of a process safety program. Fire protection engineers are involved in the assessment of hazards and the selection of fire protection strategies which can reduce the risk to an acceptable level according to the stipulated goals and objectives. Fire protection strategies may include the installation of a variety of approaches, such as passive and active fire protection systems, manual intervention and siting. Passive systems include fire rated barriers and protection of openings in those barriers, while active systems include systems such as fire detectors and sprinklers. Manual intervention may include the manual activation of fixed fire protection systems or firefighting activities by facility fire brigades or municipal fire departments. The manual firefighting activities are typically considered to be in the ‘response’ phase.     

Safety climate and firefighting: Focus group results

BackgroundFirefighting is a hazardous occupation and there have been numerous calls for fundamental changes in how fire service organizations approach safety and balance safety with other operational priorities. These calls, however, have yielded little systematic research.MethodsAs part of a larger project to develop and test a model of safety climate for the fire service, focus groups were used to identify potentially important dimensions of safety climate pertinent to firefighting.ResultsAnalyses revealed nine overarching themes. Competency/professionalism, physical/psychological readiness, and that positive traits sometimes produce negative consequences were themes at the individual level; cohesion and supervisor leadership/support at the workgroup level; and politics/bureaucracy, resources, leadership, and hiring/promotion at the organizational level. A multi-level perspective seems appropriate for examining safety climate in firefighting.ConclusionsSafety climate in firefighting appears to be multi-dimensional and some dimensions prominent in the general safety climate literature also seem relevant to firefighting. These results also suggest that the fire service may be undergoing transitions encompassing mission, personnel, and its fundamental approach to safety and risk.Practical applicationsThese results help point the way to the development of safety climate measures specific to firefighting and to interventions for improving safety performance.     

中外灭火专业标准体系比较研究

为明确我国灭火专业标准体系发展的方向和重点,分别从灭火剂、灭火器、灭火救援装备、消防通信和灭火救援管理5个方面对我国和国际消防标准化组织、美国消防标准研究机构及协会发布的灭火救援标准共200项进行了比较研究。结果表明,我国固体和液体灭火剂标准处于国际领先水平,但气体灭火剂标准未涉及部分新型卤代烷气体灭火剂;灭火器标准修订情况落后于国际标准;灭火装备类标准数量较多,但不够全面且缺乏系统性;消防通信系统标准落后于目前通信技术的发展;灭火救援管理类标准是我国消防标准化最为薄弱的方面。针对上述问题,对我国灭火专业标准体系的发展和完善提出了改进意见。     

打造零事故的建筑安全文化

在研讨安全文化和建筑安全文化内涵,分析国内外建筑安全文化研究与国内实施现状的基础上,研究了5家国际建筑企业的安全创新活动,包括:企业背景、方案、实施过程等。结合利害关系者原理、风险管理和安全知识管理,笔者提出:要实现安全行为,应注重塑造员工的安全信念、态度和承诺;应有高层管理人员强有力的支持,将整个建筑业供应链的利害关系者都纳入到安全管理中,风险管理和安全知识管理的运用可促进零事故安全文化的形成。同时提出构建在我国实现零事故的建筑安全文化的流程,即承认-启动-执行-监督-更新的步骤,给出了一种提高员工安全知识、坚定员工安全信念、塑造员工安全态度、形成安全行为并最终打造健全安全文化的整体策略。     

事故树-风险矩阵评估高校实验室火灾风险

为了使高校实验室安全管理科学化、精准化,应用事故树-风险矩阵法进行风险评估。首先采用事故树法对实验室火灾事故进行分析,得出导致事故发生的基本事件,然后依照事故致因理论,得出事故隐患三级原因,采用层次分析法对事故发生的频率和后果严重度及安全措施补偿系数的等级赋值,得到四级风险矩阵模型,对基本事件调查并由专家评估得出其风险值。评估结果表明导致实验室火灾事故的主要原因为:燃烧反应失控、加热、人员消防素质、操作不当、实验室管理水平、火灾报警系统缺陷、电气火花、灭火材料不足、消防系统缺陷、木制品、反应放热、存放不当。根据基本事件风险值高低针对性采取相应预防措施可以一定程度上提升实验室安全管理水平。     

基于“事故树-层次分析法”的高校学生宿舍火灾风险分析

高校学生宿舍的消防安全是高校安全管理的重要内容之一。对学生宿舍的消防进行风险分析对高校的安全管理具有重要意义。本文采用层次分析法对高校宿舍的消防安全进行风险分析。在进行层次分析法之前,引入了事故树,通过事故树寻求指标层中各类重要因素,从而提高了层次分析的准确性和有效性。分析结果表明：采用事故树-层次分析法,可定量地分析各个因素对建筑火灾风险的影响大小,对制定建筑火灾的防范措施具有一定的指导意义。分析结果表明：消防设施、火灾荷载和安全疏散设备对学生宿舍的火灾安全有着重要的影响,应该引起安全管理人员的重视。     

白酒厂类火灾高危单位消防安全评估及应用

白酒厂属于典型的甲乙类火灾高危单位,具有火灾风险高、火灾扑救难度大、火灾造成伤亡大等特点。以白酒厂类火灾高危单位为研究对象,针对酒厂酒库、原酒车间、成品库、包装车间、包装材料库、办公楼等重点部位,通过深入调研,采用安全检查表法分析某白酒厂存在的火灾安全隐患及安全管理的薄弱环节,用层次分析法建立了该白酒厂的消防安全评估指标体系,主要包括建筑火灾风险、消防救援力量和消防给水几个方面。采用专家打分法赋予评估指标权重,并根据风险等级划分得出该酒厂的整体火灾风险评估等级,进而评判该酒厂的安全状况,针对存在的火灾隐患及薄弱环节采取有针对性的预防措施和有重点的整改管理,保障其安全生产。     

高层建筑火灾致因因素分析与防火安全对策

针对高层建筑物火灾起火因素多、蔓延途径多、疏散困难、扑救困难等特点,全面分析高层建筑火灾致因要素并得到以火灾事故直接损失为顶上事件构建的局部事件树,从"人-机-环境"即技术(硬件)和管理(软件)的系统思路入手,提出建立以管理为纲目、技术为手段,突出管理对技术的指导与协调原则的高层建筑防火安全体系和高层建筑防火安全对策即建立完善救火系统、加强"三同时"、加强相关人员安全管理及培养相关人员安全意识、健全火灾应急预案。该研究成果以有效的解决高层建筑防火为目的,并为高层建筑设计、防火安全评价和应急预案制定等方面提供有实用价值的技术支持。     

风险偏好视角下地铁施工安全群体行为博弈研究

为了研究风险偏好对地铁项目施工阶段施工人员与安全管理人员行为决策的影响，将前景理论引入演化博弈建模及分析过程，构建区别于传统收益矩阵的前景安全效用价值感知矩阵，得到施工人员与安全管理人员在不同风险偏好下的最优策略。结合数值仿真研究得出:地铁施工安全群体凭借其个人风险偏好倾向于选择预期效用最大化决策，安全群体通过风险规避才能保证地铁项目施工阶段安全系统稳定。研究结果从完善安全管理奖惩制度、培养安全群体安全理念、转变传统安全风险管控观念3个方面为地铁项目施工提出了安全管理建议。     

Unintended consequences of management strategies for improving labor productivity in construction industry

Introduction: Labor productivity and safety are important topics in the construction industry. Even so, the literature provides little information for project managers trying to determine how management strategies designed to improve labor productivity impact safety. Method: This research addresses the gap by measuring the impact of two groups of management strategies that involve human resource related management strategies and construction related management strategies related to safety performance in construction projects. Data were collected from 111 general construction projects through the survey. Results: The results show that the relationship between the implemented management strategies and safety performance is nuanced with ‘Communication’ harming safety performance while implementation of ‘Labor Management,’ ‘Supervision and Leadership,’ ‘Planning’ and ‘Management of Construction’ strategies improve the level of safety performance. This study took a further step by measuring the impact of the interactions between the two groups of management strategies on safety performance. The results show that the interactions of construction and human related management strategies are not always in the favor of safety. Practical Applications: This paper adds to the literature on the relationship between productivity and safety in the construction industry. The research findings can assist project managers to improve labor productivity without harming the safety of laborers unintentionally.     

Decreasing residential fire death rates and the association with the prevalence of adult cigarette smoking — United States, 1999–2015

IntroductionEach year from 1999 through 2015, residential fires caused between 2,000 and 3,000 deaths in the U.S., totaling approximately 45,000 deaths during this period. A disproportionate number of such deaths are attributable to smoking in the home. This study examines national trends in residential fire death rates, overall and smoking-related, and their relationship to adult cigarette smoking prevalence, over this same period.MethodsSummary data characterizing annual U.S. residential fire deaths and annual prevalence of adult cigarette smoking for the years 1999–2015, drawn from the National Vital Statistics System, the National Fire Protection Association, and the National Health Interview Survey were used to relate trends in overall and smoking-related rates of residential fire death to changes in adult cigarette smoking prevalence.ResultsStatistically significant downward trends were identified for both the rate of residential fire death (an average annual decrease of 2.2% – 2.6%) and the rate of residential fire death attributed to smoking (an average annual decrease of 3.5%). The decreasing rate of residential fire death was strongly correlated with a gradually declining year-to-year prevalence of adult cigarette smoking (r = 0.83), as was the decreasing rate of residential fire death attributed to smoking (r = 0.80).Conclusions and practical applicationsDecreasing U.S. residential fire death rates, both overall and smoking-related, coincided with a declining prevalence of adult cigarette smoking during 1999–2015. These findings further support tobacco control efforts and fire prevention strategies that include promotion of smoke-free homes. While the general health benefits of refraining from smoking are widely accepted, injury prevention represents a potential benefit that is less recognized.     

Risk assessment and risk reduction of an acrylonitrile production plant

Reducing accident occurrence in petrochemical plants is crucial, thus appropriately allocating management resources to safety investment is a vital issue for corporate management as international competition intensifies. Understanding the priority of safety investment in a rational way helps achieve this objective.In this study, we targeted an acrylonitrile plant. First, Dow Chemical's Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) identified the reaction process as having the greatest physical risk. We evaluated the severity of accidents in the reaction process using the Process Safety Metrics advocated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS); however, this index does not express damages a company actually experience. To solve this problem, we proposed a new metric that adds indirect cost to CCPS metrics. We adopted fault tree analysis (FTA) as a risk assessment method. In identifying top events and basic events, we attempted to improve the completeness of risk identification by considering accidents from the past, actual plant operation and equipment characteristics, natural disasters, and cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. Consequently, we identified the top events with high priority in handling because of serious accidents as fire/explosion outside the reactor, fire/explosion inside the reactor, and reactor destruction. The new CCPS evaluation index proposed in this study found that fire and explosion outside the reactor has the highest severity. We considered the creation of the fault tree (FT) diagram of the top event, estimating the occurrence probability, and identifying the risk reduction part and capital investment aimed at risk reduction. As an economically feasible selection method for risk reduction investment, using the difference in loss amounts before and after safety investments indicated investment priority.     

新型油氢合建站事故风险评价及应用

油氢合建站作为新型能源基础设施,在实现传统油品加注和氢燃料运营的过程中出现诸多安全新问题。为规避此类问题带来的事故风险,以上海首座油氢合建站为研究对象,通过定性和定量相结合的方法对其建造、运营及维护过程中的事故危险源及有害因素进行风险分析。基于FTA确定引起油氢合建站内危险物质泄漏、火灾及爆炸事故的事件重要度和高风险因素,通过F&EI评价法对油氢合建站危险因素进行定量计算,确定其发生事故的最高危险等级为非常大,暴露危险区域面积为6015.65 m²。基于此,从安全管理、泄漏防控措施、防火防爆技术及事故应急处置等方面提出事故风险管控对策,采用一系列安全管控补偿措施后,油氢合建站事故危险等级降至较轻以下,暴露危险区域被控制在780 m²内。     

“消防给水排水”课程教学方法改革与实践

针对国家和社会对高素质专业化消防工程技术人才的迫切需求以及“消防给水排水”课程教学策略和方法中存在的主要问题,笔者结合自身的教学经验,分析了“消防给水排水”课程教学改革的重要意义,提出了该课程教学改革的具体思路和实施方案,在实际教学过程中取得了非常好的效果。     

基于火灾统计数据的火灾形势综合评价和定量预测

火灾统计分析是研究火灾随机性规律的有效方法,它通过总结、整理和分析大量的火灾原始资料,归纳出火灾发生的统计规律.利用多属性综合评价法可对火灾统计数据进行深层次的开发和利用;同时应用预测学原理,建立了我国火灾形势的二次指数平滑预测模型,结果表明火灾总体呈发展趋势.     

Intentions and knowledge shaping local safety policy: A comparison of two Swedish cities

IntroductionThis article explores how intentions and knowledge shape two Swedish cities' local safety policy (LSP).MethodThe applied framework is derived from the integration of governance and implementation research and the theory of knowledge and its use.ResultsThe study shows that LSPs are shaped by a mix of intentions and different kinds of knowledge, and intentions and knowledge interplay and intertwine in many ways. Key-persons construct LSPs when they work out solutions to urgent safety problems and take departure in the local context, its pre-conditions, and their experience-based and professional knowledge. The state governs LSP softly through management by objectives in the background, but more often key-actor intentions and commitments, local safety problems, and events initiated and influenced LSPs.ConclusionsThe article contributes to a better understanding of conditions for LSPs in multi-level governance.Practical applicationsThe article can be used to improve governance, identify implementation problems and knowledge needs that will improve LSPs and the overall safety situation in the community. The study has implications for how LSPs should be evaluated; many different evaluation criteria can be appropriate, such as relevance, legitimacy, achievement of key actors' objectives, sustainability of policy solutions, and creation of a local safety culture.     

消防安全评价体系初探

在消防安全检测的工作中发现,同时也受到安全评价工作的启发,笔者提出在国内推行消防安全评价,发展消防安全评价机构的思路并在理论上、实施手段上进行初探。为此,提出了建立消防安全评价体系,实施消防安全评价的方法———安全控制理论法。该方法是现代控制理论的应用性研究,其目的是对消防安全实现动态的量化的安全管理控制。笔者引入一些学者的研究成果———安全参数及计量标准,对消防系统安全状况进行综合评价;提出了与控制能力C相关的因素,并采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各自的权重;引入安全度的动态模型,其中安全度随系统的安全状况的变化而变化,体现的是系统的危险与控制的矛盾斗争结果。虽然该评价方法的理论、体系和实施研究取得了初步成果,但仍有待进一步完善。     

钻探工程施工中危险源辨识、风险评价及其控制

对钻探工程施工中存在的危险、危害因素进行了辨识和分析,采用预先危险性分析方法及安全因素影响风险评价方法对施工过程中危险源的危险等级和安全因素影响等进行了分析和评价,针对重大危险源采用了安全技术和安全管理控制措施。首先对能量危害物质、失控(包括生产、控制、安全装置和辅助设施等故障及人员失误)、管理缺陷及客观因素进行危险源辨识;第二,评价危险源危害因素主次;第三,采用安全技术和安全管理措施有效地对车辆伤害、登高作业、防雷安全、用电安全、机械安全及预防自然灾害(火灾)等重大危险源进行控制。通过实践表明,福建省121地质大队采用该方法对钻探工程项目的危险源进行了有效地控制,实现了钻探安全生产。