Driver speed selection and crash risk: Insights from the naturalistic driving study

IntroductionThis study investigates how speed limits affect driver speed selection, as well as the related crash risk, while controlling for various confounding factors such as traffic volumes and roadway geometry. Data from a naturalistic driving study are used to examine how driver speed selection varies among freeways with different posted speed limits, as well as how the likelihood of crash/near-crash events change with respect to mean speed and standard deviation.MethodRegression models are estimated to assess three measures of interest: the average speed of vehicles during the time preceding crash/near-crash and baseline (i.e., normal) driving events; the variation in travel speeds leading up to each event as quantified by the standard deviation in speeds over this period; and the probability of a specific event resulting in a crash/near-crash based on speed selection and other factors.ResultsSpeeds were relatively stable across levels-of-service A and B, within a range of 1.5 mph on average. Speeds were marginally lower (3.3 mph) on freeways posted at 65 mph versus 70 mph. In comparison, speeds were approximately 10.2 to 13.4 mph lower on facilities posted at 55 mph or 60 mph. Speeds were shown to be 2.5 mph lower in rainy weather and 11 mph lower under snow or sleet.ConclusionsSignificant correlation was observed with respect to speed selection behavior among the same individuals. Mean speeds are shown to increase with speed limits. However, these increases are less pronounced at higher speed limits. Drivers tend to reduce their travel speeds in presence of junctions and work zones, under adverse weather conditions, and particularly under heavy congestion. Crash risk increased with the standard deviation in speed, as well as on vertical curves and ramp junctions, and among the youngest and oldest age groups of drivers.     

Traffic speeds associated with implementation of 80 mph speed limits on West Texas rural interstates

Problem

In 2006 Texas raised the daytime speed limit for passenger vehicles on segments of I-10 and I-20 from 75 to 80 mph. Methods: Traffic speeds were measured before and 3, 12, and 16 months after the limit was changed. Results: During the 16-month period following the speed limit increase, mean speeds of passenger vehicles on I-20 increased by 9 mph relative to the comparison road, where no speed limit change occurred and traffic speeds declined. On I-10 mean speeds increased by 4 mph relative to the comparison road. Limiting the analysis to the month before the speed limit change and 1 year later, the proportion of drivers exceeding 80 mph was 18 times higher on I-20 and 2 times higher on I-10. Discussion: The smaller speed increases on I-10 may be related to its proximity to the U.S. border with Mexico. Highly visible border patrol activity coincided with posting of the higher speed limit. Long-term monitoring in other states suggests that traffic speeds in Texas are likely to continue to increase. Impact on Industry: The present study adds to the wealth of evidence that increased speed limits lead to increased travel speeds. The primary countermeasures to reduce the risk of speed-related crashes include highly visible police traffic enforcement and the use of speed cameras accompanied by publicity.     

Distracting behaviors among teenagers and young,middle-aged,and older adult drivers when driving without and with warnings from an integrated vehicle safety system

IntroductionNegative reinforcement from crash warnings may reduce the likelihood that drivers engage in distracted driving. Alternatively, drivers may compensate for the perceived safety benefit of crash warnings by engaging in distractions more frequently, especially at higher speeds. The purpose of this study was to examine whether warning feedback from an integrated vehicle-based safety system affected the likelihood that various secondary behaviors were present among drivers ages 16–17, 20–30, 40–50, and 60–70.MethodParticipants drove an instrumented sedan with various collision warning systems for an extended period. Ten 5-second video clips were randomly sampled from driving periods at speeds above 25 mph and below 5 mph each week for each driver and coded for the presence of 11 secondary behaviors.ResultsAt least one secondary behavior was present in 46% of video clips; conversing with a passenger (17%), personal grooming (9%), and cellphone conversation (6%) were the most common. The likelihood that at least one secondary behavior was present was not significantly different during periods when drivers received warnings relative to periods without warnings. At least one secondary behavior was 21% more likely to be present at speeds below 5 mph relative to speeds above 25 mph; however, the effect of vehicle speed was not significantly affected by warning presence. Separate models for each of the five most common secondary behaviors also indicated that warnings had no significant effect on the likelihood that each behavior was present.ConclusionsCollision warnings were not associated with significant increases or decreases in the overall likelihood that teen and adult drivers engaged in secondary behaviors or the likelihood of the behaviors at speeds above 25 mph or below 5 mph.Practical applicationsThere was no evidence that forward collision warning and other technologies like those in this study will increase or decrease distracted driving.     

Driver speed selection on high-speed two-lane highways: Comparing speed profiles between uniform and differential speed limits

Objective: Although a considerable amount of prior research has investigated the impacts of speed limits on traffic safety and operations, much of this research, and nearly all of the research related to differential speed limits, has been specific to limited access freeways. The unique safety and operational issues on highways without access control create difficulty relating the conclusions from prior freeway-related speed limit research to 2-lane highways, particularly research on differential limits due to passing limitations and subsequent queuing. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess differences in driver speed selection with respect to the posted speed limit on rural 2-lane highways, with a particular emphasis on the differences between uniform and differential speed limits.

Methods: Data were collected from nearly 59,000 vehicles across 320 sites in Montana and 4 neighboring states. Differences in mean speeds, 85th percentile speeds, and the standard deviation in speeds for free-flowing vehicles were examined across these sites using ordinary least squares regression models.

Results: Ultimately, the results of the analysis show that the mean speed, 85th percentile speed, and variability in travel speeds for free-flowing vehicles on 2-lane highways are generally lower at locations with uniform 65 mph speed limits, compared to locations with differential limits of 70 mph for cars and 60 mph for trucks.

Conclusions: In addition to posted speed limits, several site characteristics were shown to influence speed selection including shoulder widths, frequency of horizontal curves, percentage of the segment that included no passing zones, and hourly volumes. Differences in vehicle speed characteristics were also observed between states, indicating that speed selection may also be influenced by local factors, such as driver population or enforcement.     

Peer influence predicts speeding prevalence among teenage drivers

Impact on IndustryPreventing speed-related crashes could reduce costs and improve efficiency in the transportation industry.ObjectiveThis research examined the psychosocial and personality predictors of observed speeding among young drivers.MethodSurvey and driving data were collected from 42 newly-licensed teenage drivers during the first 18 months of licensure. Speeding (i.e., driving 10 mph over the speed limit; about 16 km/h) was assessed by comparing speed data collected with recording systems installed in participants' vehicles with posted speed limits.ResultsSpeeding was correlated with elevated g-force event rates (r = 0.335, pb0.05), increased over time, and predicted by day vs. night trips, higher sensation seeking, substance use, tolerance of deviance, susceptibility to peer pressure, and number of risky friends. Perceived risk was a significant mediator of the association between speeding and risky friends.ConclusionThe findings support the contention that social norms may influence teenage speeding behavior and this relationship may operate through perceived risk.     

Effects of vehicle power on passenger vehicle speeds

Objectives: During the past 2 decades, there have been large increases in mean horsepower and the mean horsepower-to–vehicle weight ratio for all types of new passenger vehicles in the United States. This study examined the relationship between travel speeds and vehicle power, defined as horsepower per 100 pounds of vehicle weight.

Methods: Speed cameras measured travel speeds and photographed license plates and drivers of passenger vehicles traveling on roadways in Northern Virginia during daytime off-peak hours in spring 2013. The driver licensing agencies in the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia provided vehicle information numbers (VINs) by matching license plate numbers with vehicle registration records and provided the age, gender, and ZIP code of the registered owner(s). VINs were decoded to obtain the curb weight and horsepower of vehicles. The study focused on 26,659 observed vehicles for which information on horsepower was available and the observed age and gender of drivers matched vehicle registration records. Log-linear regression estimated the effects of vehicle power on mean travel speeds, and logistic regression estimated the effects of vehicle power on the likelihood of a vehicle traveling over the speed limit and more than 10 mph over the limit.

Results: After controlling for driver characteristics, speed limit, vehicle type, and traffic volume, a 1-unit increase in vehicle power was associated with a 0.7% increase in mean speed, a 2.7% increase in the likelihood of a vehicle exceeding the speed limit by any amount, and an 11.6% increase in the likelihood of a vehicle exceeding the limit by 10 mph. All of these increases were highly significant.

Conclusions: Speeding persists as a major factor in crashes in the United States. There are indications that travel speeds have increased in recent years. The current findings suggest the trend toward substantially more powerful vehicles may be contributing to higher speeds. Given the strong association between travel speed and crash risk and crash severity, this is cause for concern.     

School transportation mode,by distance between home and school,United States,ConsumerStyles 2012

IntroductionMotor-vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death among children in the United States, and almost one-fourth of all trips by school-aged children are trips to and from school. This study sought to determine how children (5–18 years) travel to and from school and, among those living ≤ 1 mile of school, to explore the role of school bus service eligibility on school travel mode.MethodsWe used national 2012 survey data to determine prevalence of usual school travel mode, stratified by distance from school. For those living ≤ 1 mile of school, multivariable regression was conducted to assess the association between bus service eligibility and walking or bicycling.ResultsAlmost half (46.6%) of all children rode in passenger vehicles (PV) to school and 41.8% did so for the trip home. Results were similar among those living ≤ 1 mile (48.1%, PV to school; 41.3%, PV to home). Among those living ≤ 1 mile, 21.9% and 28.4% of children walked or bicycled to and from school, respectively. Ineligibility for school bus service was strongly associated with walking or bicycling to school [adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR: 5.36; p < 0.001)] and from school (aPR: 5.36; p < 0.001).ConclusionsRegardless of distance from school, passenger vehicles were a common mode of travel. For children who live close to school, the role that school bus service eligibility plays in walking or bicycling deserves further consideration.Practical applicationsGiven the large proportion of children who use passenger vehicles for school travel, effective interventions can be adopted to increase proper child restraint and seat belt use and reduce crash risks among teen drivers. Better understanding of conditions under which bus service is offered to children who live close to school could inform efforts to improve pedestrian and bicyclist safety for school travel.     

Safety effects of automated section speed control on the Italian motorway network

Introduction: Automated Section Speed Control (ASSC) has been identified as an effective countermeasure to reduce speeds and improve speed limit compliance. Method: An Empirical Bayes (EB) before-and-after study was performed in this research in order to evaluate the impact of the ASSC system on the expected crash frequency. The study was carried out on a sample of 125 ASSC sites of the Italian motorway network covering 1252 km, where a total of 21,721 crashes were recorded during a 10-year analysis period from 2004 to 2013. Results: Overall, the EB analysis estimated a significant 22% reduction in the expected crash frequency due to the implementation of the ASSC system. The analysis indicated that the effect is slightly larger on property damage only (PDO) crashes (− 23%) than on fatal injury (FI) crashes (− 18%) and that the highest reductions in crash frequency are expected for multi-vehicle FI crashes (− 25%) and multi-vehicle PDO crashes (− 31%). Furthermore, the results indicated that the ASSC system is more effective in reducing crash rates when traffic volume increases and it is therefore strongly recommended as a countermeasure to improve safety on high-traffic-volume motorway sections.     

Improving the safety effect of speed camera programs through innovations: Evidence from the French experience

Problem: This study investigates the effect of the French Automated Speed Enforcement Program (ASEP) on casualties involving different types of road users. Method: Interrupted time-series analyses were conducted to estimate the effect of the ASEP. Results: Overall, the ASEP was associated with a decrease of 19.7% in traffic fatalities and crashes with injuries. Significant diminutions were observed for passenger vehicles/light SUVs (− 25.4%), motorcyclists (− 39.0%), and trucks (− 15.7%). Adding red light cameras and devices taking pictures of both ends of the vehicle produced, in some cases, additional gains among specific categories of road users. Conclusion: Traffic fatalities, crashes with injuries and the severity of crashes significantly declined following the introduction of the ASEP in November 2003. Practical applications: ASEPs are an effective strategy to prevent traffic casualties. Innovations such as red light cameras and devices taking pictures of both ends of the vehicle can improve an ASEP.     

Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

IntroductionRecent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act of 2011.MethodThe current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009.ResultsResults show that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because of inattentive and risky driving.     

Effects of lead time of verbal collision warning messages on driving behavior in connected vehicle settings

IntroductionUnder the connected vehicle environment, vehicles will be able to exchange traffic information with roadway infrastructure and other vehicles. With such information, collision warning systems (CWSs) will be able to warn drivers with potentially hazardous situations within or out of sight and reduce collision accidents. The lead time of warning messages is a crucial factor in determining the effectiveness of CWSs in the prevention of traffic accidents. Accordingly, it is necessary to understand the effects of lead time on driving behaviors and explore the optimal lead time in various collision scenarios.MethodsThe present driving simulator experiment studied the effects of controlled lead time at 16 levels (predetermined time headway from the subject vehicle to the collision location when the warning message broadcasted to a driver) on driving behaviors in various collision scenarios.ResultsMaximum effectiveness of warning messages was achieved when the controlled lead time was within the range of 5 s to 8 s. Specifically, the controlled lead time ranging from 4 s to 8 s led to the optimal safety benefit; and the controlled lead time ranging from 5 s to 8 s led to more gradual braking and shorter reaction time. Furthermore, a trapezoidal distribution of warning effectiveness was found by building a statistic model using curve estimation considering lead time, lifetime driving experience, and driving speed.ConclusionsThe results indicated that the controlled lead time significantly affected driver performance.Practical applicationsThe findings have implications for the design of collision warning systems.     

Driving context influences drivers' decision to engage in visual–manual phone tasks: Evidence from a naturalistic driving study

IntroductionVisual–manual (VM) phone tasks (i.e., texting, dialing, reading) are associated with an increased crash/near-crash risk. This study investigated how the driving context influences drivers' decisions to engage in VM phone tasks in naturalistic driving.MethodVideo-recordings of 1,432 car trips were viewed to identify VM phone tasks and passenger presence. Video, vehicle signals, and map data were used to classify driving context (i.e., curvature, other vehicles) before and during the VM phone tasks (N = 374). Vehicle signals (i.e., speed, yaw rate, forward radar) were available for all driving.ResultsVM phone tasks were more likely to be initiated while standing still, and less likely while driving at high speeds, or when a passenger was present. Lead vehicle presence did not influence how likely it was that a VM phone task was initiated, but the drivers adjusted their task timing to situations when the lead vehicle was increasing speed, resulting in increasing time headway. The drivers adjusted task timing until after making sharp turns and lane change maneuvers. In contrast to previous driving simulator studies, there was no evidence of drivers reducing speed as a consequence of VM phone task engagement.ConclusionsThe results show that experienced drivers use information about current and upcoming driving context to decide when to engage in VM phone tasks. However, drivers may fail to sufficiently increase safety margins to allow time to respond to possible unpredictable events (e.g., lead vehicle braking).Practical applicationsAdvanced driver assistance systems should facilitate and possibly boost drivers' self-regulating behavior. For instance, they might recognize when appropriate adaptive behavior is missing and advise or alert accordingly. The results from this study could also inspire training programs for novice drivers, or locally classify roads in terms of the risk associated with secondary task engagement while driving.     

Protective factors associated with young passenger intervening in risky driving situations

IntroductionWhile the negative influence of passengers on driving is usually studied, young passengers may protect against young drivers' crash involvement by speaking out and trying to stop unsafe driving behavior. This study sought to examine psychosocial constructs of young passengers who are likely to intervene in their friends' risky driving.MethodUniversity students aged 17 to 25 years who were single (n = 123) or in a romantic relationship (n = 130) completed an online survey measuring protective factors.ResultsThe combination of individual, friend and (for participants in a relationship) romantic partner protective factors predicted self-reported passenger intervening intentions.Impact on IndustrySince peer passengers often increase young drivers' crash risk, research on passenger intervening has significant implications for road safety strategies. The findings provide support for the operationalization of protective factors in strategies that target passenger intervening behavior.     

Efficacy of roll stability control and lane departure warning systems using carrier-collected data

IntroductionLarge truck crashes have significantly declined over the last 10 years, likely due, in part, to the increased use of onboard safety systems (OSS). Unfortunately, historically there is a paucity of data on the real-world efficacy of these devices in large trucks. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the two OSSs, lane departure warning (LDW) and roll stability control (RSC), using data collected from motor carriers.MethodA retrospective cohort approach was used to assess the safety benefits of these OSSs installed on Class 7 and 8 trucks as they operated during normal revenue-producing deliveries. Data were collected from 14 carriers representing small, medium, and large carriers hauling a variety of commodities. The data consisted of a total of 88,112 crash records and 151,624 truck-years that traveled 13 billion miles over the observation period.ResultsThe non-LDW cohort had an LDW-related crash rate that was 1.917 times higher than the LDW cohort (p = 0.001), and the non-RSC cohort had an RSC-related crash rate that was 1.555 times higher than the RSC cohort (p < 0.001).ConclusionsThe results across analyses indicated a strong, positive safety benefit for LDW and RSC under real-world conditions.Practical applicationsThe results support the use of LDW and RSC in reducing the crash types associated with each OSS.     

A study of pedestrian and bicyclist exposure to head injury in passenger car collisions based on accident data and simulations

The objective was to assess head injury risks and kinematics of adult pedestrians and bicyclists in primary impact to the passenger cars and secondary impact to the ground using real world accident data and computer reconstructions of the accidents. For this purpose, a subsample of 402 pedestrians and 940 bicyclists from the GIDAS database, Germany, was used for the statistical analysis, from which 22 pedestrian and 18 bicyclist accidents were further selected for reconstruction. PC-Crash was used to calculate impact conditions, such as vehicle impact velocity, vehicle kinematic sequence, and thrown distance. These conditions were employed to identify the initial conditions in reconstruction in MADYMO program. A comparable analysis was conducted based on the results from accident analysis and computer reconstructions for the impact configurations and the resulting injury patterns of pedestrians and bicyclists in view of head injury risks. Differences in HIC, head-relative impact velocity, linear acceleration, maximum angular velocity and acceleration, contact force, thrown distance, Wrap Around Distance (WAD), and head contact time were evaluated. Injury risk curves were generated by using a logistic regression model for vehicle impact velocity. The results indicate that bicyclists suffered less severe injuries compared with severity of pedestrian injuries. In the selected samples, the AIS 2+ and AIS 3+ head injury risks for pedestrians are 50% probability at impact speed of 38.87 km/h and 54.39 km/h respectively, while for bicyclists at 53.66 km/h and 58.89 km/h respectively. The findings of high injury risks suggested that in the area with high frequency car-pedestrian accidents, the vehicle speed limit should be 40 km/h, while in the area with high frequency car-cyclist accidents the vehicle speed limit should be 50 km/h.     

Validation of the principles of injury risk zones for motorcycle protective clothing

IntroductionThe distributions of motorcycle crash impacts and injuries were compared to the four impact risk zones and protective performance specified in the European Standard for motorcycle clothing (EN 13595).MethodsCrashed motorcyclists' (n = 117) injuries and clothing damage were categorized by body area into the four risk zones. Three levels of protection were defined: protective clothing with impact protection, protective clothing only and non-protective clothing.ResultsThe distribution of impact/injury sites corresponded to the predictions of EN 13595, with the proportion of all injuries decreasing from 43.9% in Zone 1, to 18.0%, 16.7%, and 11.5% in Zones 2 to 4, respectively. Protective clothing modified the distribution of injuries with substantially more injuries (OR = 2.69, 95% CL: 20.1–3.59) at unprotected impact sites.Practical applicationThese findings support an appropriate framework for determining performance specifications for the manufacture of motorcycle clothing that will effectively reduce the risk of injury in crashes.     

The explosion overpressure field and flame propagation of methane/air and methane/coal dust/air mixtures

The explosion of the methane/air mixture and the methane/coal dust/air mixture under 40 J center spark ignition condition was experimentally studied in a large-scale system of 10 m³ vessel. Five pressure sensors were arranged in space with different distances from the ignition point. A high-speed camera system was used to record the growth of the flame. The maximum overpressure of the methane/air mixture appeared at 0.75 m away from the ignition point; the thickness of the flame was about 10 mm and the propagation speed of the flame fluctuated around 2.5 m/s with the methane concentration of 9.5%. The maximum overpressure of the methane/coal dust/air mixture appeared at 0.5 m. The flame had a structure of three concentric zones from outside were the red zone, the yellow illuminating zone and the bright white illuminating zone respectively; the thickness and the propagation speed of the flame increased gradually, the thickness of red zone and yellow illuminating zone reached 3.5 cm and 1 cm, the speed reached 9.2 m/s at 28 ms.     

Consequences of raising the speed limit

Two methods were used to assess the potential impact of increased speed limits on highway fatalities. These were: (a) a method used by National Safety Council (NSC) in estimating the causes of decreased motor vehicles in the 1970s and (b) a method used by the National Research Council, Transportation Research Board (TRB) in reporting on 10 years of experience with the 55 mph speed limit. Applying the NSC method to 1984 fatality data resulted in estimated increases of 200 to 700 deaths per year on rural interstates depending on how much the speed limit was raised. Using the TRB method resulted in estimated increases of 300 to 450 deaths per year if each state returned to pre-1974 speed limits.