Modeling a sustainable Saudi Arabian economy: the real issues

This paper develops a macroeconomic framework for creating a competitive and sustainable Saudi Arabian economy, taking into account the interrelationships among social, environmental, and economic factors. The objective of the research is to build a model that will allow for evaluating the effects of a wide range of emissions abatement policies on economic growth and development. The research methodology is grounded in econometric modeling of the Saudi economy over the period 1980–2010. The estimated parameters of the model were used to project long-term gross domestic product (GDP) growth paths based on three environmental degradation abatement scenarios. The results suggest that the sustainability of economic growth in Saudi Arabia critically depends on aggressive emissions-reduction policies since policy scenarios corresponding to higher pollution cuts yielded higher, sustained long-term GDP. The results also broadly reject the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, implying that a turning point in the relationship between CO₂ emissions and per capita GDP is yet to be attained.     

The impact of economic development on environmental degradation in Qatar

This study investigates the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis by employing the ecological footprint (EF) as an indicator of environmental degradation in Qatar over the 1980–2011 period. The results of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation with structural breaks reveal that there is a long run relationship among the selected variables with a significant shift in the cointegration vector in 1996. The comparison of the short and long-run income elasticities indicates that the EKC hypothesis is not valid in Qatar. In particular, the long run effect of income is greater than its short run effect, which provides evidence of a monotonic relationship between EF and real GDP per capita. Moreover, the oil price and trade openness have a positive and negative long run impact on ecological footprint, respectively. We further investigate the robustness of the results by employing the Toda–Yamamoto causality tests and the estimation with regime approach. The outcome of TY shows that income and oil price increase significantly the ecological footprint. Moreover, the results of the estimation with two regimes (1980–1996 and 1997–2011) show that the impact of real GDP on the EF in the second regime is higher than the first regime, which confirm the ARDL estimation results.     

北京市环境政策评价研究

选取北京市 1985— 1999年环境经济数据 ,建立北京市经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型 ,为评价北京市环境政策提供依据。此实证研究得出两个重要结论 :北京市环境指标与人均GDP演替轨迹呈现显著的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征 ;但比发达国家较早实现了其环境库兹涅茨曲线转折点     

江苏省环境库兹涅茨特征分析

选取江苏省 1 988— 2 0 0 2年经济与环境数据 ,建立了单位GDP污染排放量模型和人均GDP污染排放量模型 ,分析各类典型环境指标与GDP增长的关系。研究发现 ,江苏省的单位GDP污染排放量总体呈现下降趋势 ,表明技术进步和产业结构的调整已产生了明显的环境效益 ;同时发现经济发展与环境污染水平的关系总体上符合库兹涅茨曲线 (EKC)特征。由此得出结论 :江苏省目前仍处于工业发展期 ,环境污染物排放量EKC的转折点尚未达到 ,因此 ,江苏环境污染控制的投入有必要保持较高的水平。     

福建省经济发展与工业污染水平计量模型研究

经济增长和环境污染之间的关系常用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）来描述,典型的EKc一般呈倒u形。对福建省1988—2008年的经济与环境系列数据研究表明,福建省工业“三废”排放与人均GDP之间存在明显的相关性,但并不完全符合EKC的典型倒“U”模型。工业废水和工业s02排放曲线为“U＋倒U”形,EKC的转折点已分别在2006年和2008年到达;工业废气排放曲线为正“U”形的右半部分,EKc的转折点尚未出现。因此,福建省要进一步调整产业结构,提升第三产业在整个国民经济中的比重,优化第二产业结构,减少工业废气排放量,争取尽早跨越EKC拐点。     

Effects of Human Activity on Global Extinction Risk

Both natural and anthropogenic factors are important in determining a species' risk of extinction. Little work has been done, however, to quantify the magnitude of current anthropogenic influences on the extinction process. The purpose of this study is to determine the extent to which measures of the intensity of human activity are related to the global variability of two measures of species' susceptibility to extinction. We observed six indices of human activities in 90 countries, and we tested their relationships to the proportion of threatened bird and mammal species in each country, as well as to mammalian population density. After correcting for area effects, latitudinal diversity gradients, and body size (for population density), 28 to 50% of the remaining variation was statistically attributable to anthropogenic variables. Different measures of anthropogenic influence were most closely related to extinction risk in birds and mammals. Human population density was the variable most closely related to the proportion of threatened bird species per country, whereas per capita GNP was more important for mammal species. Mammalian population density strongly correlates with the extent of protected area per country. Contrary to suggestions in earlier literature, our work does not support the hypothesis that habitat loss is a prime contributor to species loss because frequencies of threatened birds and mammals are not closely related to patterns of land use.     

Cointegration and causality: considering Iberian economic activity sectors to test the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis

Few studies have attempted to study the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis at the individual sector level using more than one sector at once. This paper investigates the existence of the EKC hypothesis in the Iberian countries (Portugal and Spain) using thirteen economic activity sectors for each, analyzing each individual sector’s cointegration and causality relationships considering carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, sector gross value added and energy consumption. The findings of this paper using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach only validate cointegration in six Portuguese sectors and in five of the Spanish sectors. Results confirm both short- and long-run bi-directional and unidirectional causality between economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions, using the error correction model (ECM) and Toda and Yamamoto’s causality approaches. Moreover, results for Portuguese and Spanish sectors indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship only for one sector each. In some sectors there was evidence of a U-shaped relationship and in others the EKC hypothesis could be verified but no statistical significance was obtained. The study has significant contributions for sector policy, including implications to curtail energy pollutants by implementing environmental friendly regulations to sustain economic development at the sector level in the Iberian market. It also allows inferences to be made about the existence of different behaviors in comparative terms for the same economic activity sectors of the individual countries.     

Long-term declines of European insectivorous bird populations and potential causes

Evidence of declines in insect populations has recently received considerable scientific and societal attention. However, the lack of long-term insect monitoring makes it difficult to assess whether declines are geographically widespread. By contrast, bird populations are well monitored and often used as indicators of environmental change. We compared the population trends of European insectivorous birds with those of other birds to assess whether patterns in bird population trends were consistent with declines of insects. We further examined whether declines were evident for insectivores with different habitats, foraging strata, and other ecological preferences. Bird population trends were estimated for Europe (1990–2015) and Denmark (1990–2016). On average, insectivores declined over the study period (13% across Europe and 28% in Denmark), whereas omnivores had stable populations. Seedeaters also declined (28% across Europe; 34% in Denmark), but this assessment was based on fewer species than for other groups. The effects of insectivory were stronger for farmland species (especially grassland species), for ground feeders, and for cold-adapted species. Insectivory was associated with long-distance migration, which was also linked to population declines. However, many insectivores had stable populations, especially habitat generalists. Our findings suggest that the decline of insectivores is primarily associated with agricultural intensification and loss of grassland habitat. The loss of both seed and insect specialists indicates an overall trend toward bird communities dominated by diet generalists.     

Effects of economics and demographics on global fisheries sustainability

A good understanding of social factors that lead to marine ecological change is important to developing sustainable global fisheries. We used balanced panel models and conducted cross‐national time‐series analyses (1970–2010) of 122 nations to examine how economic prosperity and population growth affected the sustainability of marine ecosystems. We used catches in economic exclusive zone (EEZ); mean trophic level of fishery landings (MTL); primary production required to sustain catches (expressed as percentage of local primary production [%PPR]); and an index of ecosystem overfishing (i.e., the loss in secondary production index [L index]) as indicators of ecological change in marine ecosystems. The EEZ catch, %PPR, and L index declined gradually after gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reached $15,000, $14,000, and $19,000, respectively, and MTL increased steadily once GDP per capita exceeded $20,000. These relationships suggest that economic growth and biodiversity conservation are compatible goals. However, increasing human populations would degrade marine ecosystems. Specifically, a doubling of human population caused an increase in the %PPR of 17.1% and in the L index of 0.0254 and a decline in the MTL of 0.176. A 1% increase in human population resulted in a 0.744% increase in EEZ catch. These results highlight the importance of considering social and economic factors in developing sustainable fisheries management policy.     

Is there an inverted U-shaped curve? Empirical analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in agrochemicals

As the largest contributor to water impairment, agriculture-related pollution has attracted the attention of scientists as well as policy makers, and quantitative information is being sought to focus and advance the policy debate. This study applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration, and panel-based dynamic ordinary least squares to investigate the Environmental Kuznets Curve on environmental issues resulting from use of agricultural synthetic fertilizer, pesticide, and film for 31 provincial economies in mainland China from 1989 to 2009. The empirical results indicate a positive long-run co-integrated relationship between the environmental index and real GDP per capita. This relationship takes on the inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve, and the value of the turning point is approximately 10,000–13,000, 85,000–89,000 and over 160,000 CNY, for synthetic fertilizer nitrogen indicator, fertilizer phosphorus indicator and pesticide indicator, respectively. At present, China is subject to tremendous environmental pressure and should assign more importance to special agriculture-related environmental issues.     

浙江省废水排放增长的EKC曲线特征分析

选取浙江省1985~2004年经济和废水排放数据,通过分析经济因子与废水排放之间的相互关系,建立浙江省废水排放的库兹涅茨曲线模型。结果表明:浙江省废水排放与人均GDP的演替轨迹呈现显著的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征,1985~2004期间处于曲线的上升阶段。浙江省废水排放总量的EKC曲线理论转折点为人均GDP约34 305元,相应的废水排放总量峰值为35亿t,预测转折点出现的时间为2007年左右。工业废水排放量正处于EKC曲线的转折点附近,而生活废水排放量目前正处于EKC曲线加速上升的阶段,转折点出现的时间为2007年左右,对应的生活废水排放量的峰值为15亿t,是2004年生活废水排放量(11.6亿t)的1.3倍,形势非常严峻,应该引起重视。因此,十一五期间,浙江省尤其要注重对生活废水排放的控制和治理,并且保持较高的治理投入。     

Potential Misuse of Avian Density as a Conservation Metric

Abstract: Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual‐ and population‐level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density‐independent and density‐dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density‐dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels.     

Estimating the influence of overhead transmission power lines and landscape context on the density of little bustard Tetrax tetrax breeding populations

Collision with conductors and earth cables is a known impact generated by transmission power lines, however there is virtually no information on how these infrastructures might affect bird distribution in a landscape context. With this work we specifically hypothesise that transmission power lines may affect the occurrence of a threatened bird, the little bustard (Tetrax tetrax). To test this hypothesis we used a Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM), analysing the effects of power lines in a landscape perspective and simulating population trends as a response to power line installation and habitat changes induced by agricultural shifts in southern Portugal. The data used in the dynamic model construction included relevant gradients of environmental conditions and was sampled during the breeding seasons of 2003-2006. Transmission power lines were significantly avoided by the little bustard and the developed StDM model showed that the distance to these utility structures is the most important factor determining breeding densities in sites with suitable habitat for the species, which possibly leads to displacement of populations and habitat fragmentation. The model simulations also provided the base to analyse the cumulative effects caused by the habitat degradation that can ultimately lead to the extinction of local populations. Within priority conservation sites, the dismantling of existing transmission lines should be considered whenever possible, in order to ensure adequate breeding habitat. The model is considered useful as an auxiliary tool to be used in environmental impact assessments, management and conservation studies.     

Effectiveness of Corridors Relative to Enlargement of Habitat Patches

Abstract:  The establishment of biological corridors between two otherwise isolated habitat patches is a common yet contentious strategy for conserving populations in fragmented landscapes. We compared the effectiveness of corridors with the effectiveness of an alternate conservation strategy, the enlargement of existing habitat patches. We used a spatially explicit population model that simulated population size in two kinds of patches. One patch had a corridor that connected it to a larger "source" patch and the other patch was unconnected and enlarged at the periphery by an area the same size as the corridor. Patch isolation, corridor width, patch size, and the probability that individuals would cross the border from habitat to matrix were varied independently. In general, population size was greater in enlarged patches than in connected patches when patches were relatively large and isolated. Corridor width and the probability of crossing the border from habitat to matrix did not affect the relative benefit of corridors versus patch enlargement. Although biological corridors may mitigate potential effects of inbreeding depression at long time scales, our results suggest that they are not always the best method of conserving fragmented populations.     

Public expenditure and the environmental management of Brazilian municipalities: a panel data model

Environmental expenditure can be classified as an indicator to measure the efforts of public agents with the environment. Cities and countries seek to understand the determinants of environmental spending over time. This research aims to analyze the variables that influence the environmental spending of Brazilian municipalities between the years 2012 and 2016. Thus, this research helps fill the gap on lack of longitudinal research that involves local contexts in relation to public municipal expenditures on the environment. The research method consists of the panel data model. Data were collected on the environmental expenditures of the municipalities and other variables of 4269 Brazilian municipalities, the collection generated 21,329 observations. The results showed that the municipalities of the state of Amapá had better relative expenditure averages, it was also observed that the municipalities in the Northeast region show the worst results. The municipality of Itamaracá, located in the state of Pernambuco, presented the best percentage of the country, 9.47% of the environmental expenditure in relation to total expenditure. Regarding the results of panel data, the variables revenue, population, density, GDP, and HDI presented significance in all models; the models estimated by fixed effects ensure the consistency of the parameters.     

Effects of Agricultural, Industrial, and Recreational Expansion on Frequency of Wildlife Law Violations in the Central Rocky Mountains, USA

Abstract: As human populations expand into previously unoccupied habitats, conflicts with wild vertebrate species are inevitable. On the basis of literature concerning human attitudes toward nature, we hypothesized that the intensity of conflicts and impacts would vary with the type of land use expansion. We tested our hypothesis by examining data on socioeconomic profiles of discrete expanding human populations in relation to the frequency of wildlife law violations in the central Rocky Mountains of the United States. We estimated possible human-related effects by comparing rates of wildlife law violations among populations varying in growth rates and socioeconomic status over an eleven-year period 1969–1980. We found that agrarian-based population centers had fewer violations per capita than areas with industrial-based (petroleum development) boom towns. Recreation-oriented (ski) boom towns had the lowest number of violations during periods of the most rapid growth. While the relationship between wildlife law violations and actual impact on animal population sizes remains unknown, our findings underscore the necessity of a priori recognition and planning by government and private agencies to combat potential harmful effects when expanding human population centers are likely to be characterized by immigrants with a low regard for wild species.     

The determinants of CO2 emissions in MENA countries: a responsiveness scores approach

This paper examines the relationship among carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, GDP, and energy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries by using a Responsiveness Scores (RS) approach. Empirical results over the period 1971–2013 suggest that GDP per capita and energy consumption show positive RSs, while trade and urban population negative ones. Moreover, energy consumption and urban population reveal moderate increasing returns to scale, while GDP per capita exhibits decreasing positive returns. Furthermore, three-way factors analysis sets out that most of the countries lays on regions with moderate negative Total Responsiveness Scores (TRS). This means that when all factors are jointly increased, CO₂ emissions have a moderate decrease. In addition, some GCC countries present a different pattern compared to the average pattern of MENA countries. Finally, radar plots indicate that, overall, RS pattern over factors is moderately heterogeneous within GCC countries, with larger variability appearing in the response to urban population and GDP.     

青岛市“三废”排放的环境库兹涅茨特征分析

环境库兹涅茨曲线(Environmental Kuznets Curve,简称EKC)常用来描述经济增长与环境质量之间的关系,典型的EKC一般呈倒U形。通过对1986—2003年青岛市环境经济数据的经济计量模型研究,发现青岛市“三废”排放的EKC不完全符合典型的EKC特征,并对这一结果进行了初步分析。     

A Procedure for Making Optimal Selection of Input Variables for Multivariate Environmental Classifications

Abstract:  Multivariate classifications of environmental factors are used as frameworks for conservation management. Although classification performance is likely to be sensitive to choice of input variables, these choices have been subjective in most previous studies. We used the Mantel test on a limited set of sites for which biological data were available to iteratively seek a definition of environmental space (i.e., intersite distances calculated with a set of appropriately transformed and weighted environmental variables) that had maximal correlation with the same sites described in a biological space. The procedure was used to select input variables for a classification of New Zealand's rivers that discriminates variation in fish communities for biodiversity management. The classification performed (i.e., discriminated biological variation) better than classifications with subjectively chosen variables. The inherently linear measures of environmental distance that underlie multivariate environmental classifications mean that they will perform best if they are defined based on variables for which there is a linear variation in the biological community throughout the entire range of the variable. Classification performance will therefore be improved when variables that have nonlinear relationships with biological variation are transformed to make their relationship with biological turnover more linear and when the contributions of environmental factors that have particularly strong relationships with biological variation are increased by weighting. Our results indicate that attention to the manner in which environmental space is defined improves the efficacy of multivariate classification and other techniques in which the environment is used as a surrogate for biological variation.     

Reducing per capita food supply alters urchin condition and habitat

When food supply declines or population density increases, the per capita food availability is reduced causing a decline in condition of consumers. Many consumers alter their feeding behaviour and ultimately the surrounding community (e.g. overgrazing and formation of urchin barrens). This study tested the hypothesis that sea urchin populations are of greater density and poorer condition in barrens (little food) than forest habitat (lots of food). We then tested the hypothesis that a decrease in per capita food supply to urchins has a negative effect not only on their condition but also on their surrounding habitat. We experimentally assessed the effect of limited food supply and increased density of a subtidal Australian sea urchin (Heliocidaris erythrogramma) on their condition (i.e. gonad index) and surrounding benthic habitat (i.e. turf-forming algae). Our results show that a reduction in food supply led to poorer consumer condition and greater herbivory on surrounding local habitat. We provide evidence that per capita food reduction is one of the necessary conditions for the over-consumption by urchins (i.e. urchin barrens), a proposed but previously untested mechanism.