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1.
Vegetation and climate   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Over the last two centuries, man's activities have caused a 30% increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2, with continued increases seeming inevitable. This change in CO2 concentration will act on vegetation, both directly and indirectly through global climatic change. It is well established that, on a global scale, patterns of vegetation and climate are closely correlated. Such correlations indicate that climatic change will cause the distribution of vegetation to change. However, the use of correlations for predicting vegetation responses to climatic change is fundamentally unreliable because correlations have no mechanistic underpinning of causation. This paper outlines a mechanistic model for predicting the equilibrium state between current climate and vegetation. It is also used to indicate the sensitivity of global vegetation to the changed climate associated with a doubled CO2—greenhouse scenario. The interpretation of this static model is discussed in terms of rates and patterns of vegetation change.  相似文献   

2.
Calculations indicate that there may be a potential climatic problem due to the release of CO2 from burning fossil fuels. However there is insufficient scientific evidence to predict the impact because the available models are not well enough understood and do not take into account many feedback mechanisms. Therefore, we have calculated atmospheric temperature changes versus latitude with the simpler Manabe-Wetherald radiative-convective model and compared it to the results of their general circulation model. In addition, we have determined the changes in several physical quantities, such as cloud abundance and surface albedo, required to compensate the temperature rise related to increased CO2 concentrations.  相似文献   

3.
Global atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased since the beginning of reliable monitoring in 1958 at a mean rate of about 0.9 ppm CO2/yr. Now, atmospheric CO2 concentration is at 330 ppm. From about 1860 up to 1974, man's intervention in the global carbon cycle caused a likely increase of 76.6 × 1015 gC, corresponding to 36 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, if a preindustrial content of 294 ppm CO2 or 625.3 × 1015 g C is adopted to be valid. A further rise of atmospheric CO2 seems to be inevitable and probably will be responsible for a climatic warming in the next several decades; therefore, a global examination of carbon reservoirs and carbon fluxes has been undertaken to determine their storage capacity for excess carbon which orginated mainly from burning fossil fuels and from land clearing. During 1860–1974 about 136 × 1015 g C have ben emitted into the atmosphere by fossil fuel combustion and cement production. At present, the emission rate is about 5 × 1015 g C/yr. The worldwide examination of carbon release, primarily by deforestation and soil cultivation since 1860, is estimated to be about 120 × 1015 g C. The net transfer of carbon to the atmosphere owing to man's interference with the biosphere is now believed to be about 2.4 × 1015 g C/yr. An oceanic uptake of roughly 179 × 1015 g C since 1860 is open to discussion. According to the chemical buffering of sea surface water only about 35.5 × 1015 g C could have been absorbed. It is argued, however, that oceanic circulations might have been more effective in removing atmospheric excess carbon of anthropogenic origin.  相似文献   

4.
With the economic development, China has become the largest CO2 emissions country. China’s power industry CO2 emissions accounted for about 50% of total CO2 emissions. Therefore, exploring major drivers of CO2 emissions is critical to mitigating its CO2 emissions in power industry. Many studies considered the time series model to analyze the national influences factors of CO2 emissions. But this paper focuses on regional differences in CO2 emissions and adopts panel data models to explore the major impact factors of CO2 emissions in the power industry at the regional and provincial perspectives. The results indicate economic growth level plays a dominant role in reducing CO2 emissions. The power-consuming efficiency on the demand side has large potential to mitigate CO2 emissions, but its influences are different in three regions. The impacts of the electric power structure on CO2 emissions decline from the eastern region to the central and western regions. The influence of urbanization and industrialization also has significant regional differences. Therefore, the governments should consider the influencing factors and regional differences and formulate appropriate policies to decrease CO2 emissions in the power industry.  相似文献   

5.
Projections of the magnitude of global climatic change from combustion generated CO2 are both uncertain and controversial, due in large measure to ignorance of the physical mechanisms involved. Analysis indicates that the uncertainties can be considerably narrowed by considering only the most immediate time frame of possible climatic impact, thereby leading to the possibility of rationally assessing the scope of the threat and the need for remedial action.  相似文献   

6.
Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO2 reduction and emission peak, and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO2 emissions reduction. They are also means to break through the constraints of domestic resources and environment, and internal needs, to achieve sustainable development. Generally speaking, a country's CO2 emission peak appears after achieving urbanization and industrialization. By then, connotative economic growth will appear, GDP will grow slowly, energy consumption elasticity will decrease, and energy consumption growth will slow down – dependent mainly on new and renewable energies. Fossil fuel consumption will not increase further. When CO2 emission reaches its peak, the annual reduction rate of CO2 intensity of GDP is greater than GDP annual growth rate; and the annual reduction rate of CO2 intensity of energy use is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption. Therefore, three important approaches to promotion of CO2 emission peak can be concluded: maintaining reasonable control of GDP growth, strengthening energy conservation to significantly reduce the GDP energy intensity, and optimizing the energy mix to reduce the CO2 intensity of energy use. By around 2030, China will basically have completed its rapid development phase of industrialization and urbanization. Connotative economic growth will appear with the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment. The target of GDP energy intensity will still be to maintain an average annual reduction of 3% or higher. The proportion of non-fossil fuels will reach 20–25%, and the aim will be to maintain an average annual growth rate of 6–8%. The total annual energy demand growth of 1.5% will be satisfied by the newly increased supply of non-fossil fuels. The annual decline in CO2 intensity of GDP will reach 4.5% or higher, which is compatible with an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5% in order to reach CO2 emission peak. This corresponds to the level of China's potential economic growth. Achieving CO2 emission peak will not impose a rigid constraint on economic development, but rather promote economic development and accelerate the transformation of green, low-carbon development. The CO2 emission peak can be controlled with a cap of 11 billion tons, which means that CO2 emission will increase by less than 50% compared with 2010. The per capita emission peak will be controlled at a level of less than 8 tons, which is lower than the 9.5 tons in the EU and Japan and much lower than the 20 tons in the US, future economic and social development faces many uncertainties in achieving the CO2 emission peak discussed above. It depends on current and future strategies and policies, as well as the pace and strength of economic transformation, innovation, and new energy technologies. If the economic transformation pattern fails to meet expectations, the time required to reach CO2 emission peak would be delayed and the peak level would be higher than expected. Therefore, we need to coordinate thoughts and ideas and deploy these in advance; to highlight the strategic position of low-carbon development and its priorities; to enact mid- to long-term energy development strategies; and to establish and improve a system of laws, regulations, and policies as well as an implementation mechanism for green, low-carbon development. Oriented by positive and urgent CO2 reduction and peak targets, the government would form a reversed mechanism to promote economic transformation and embark on the path of green, low-carbon development as soon as possible.  相似文献   

7.

The income inequality-economy link has been argued by researchers a long time. But the impact of income inequality on environmental pollution is a new investigation topic for developing countries. Turkey is well known as an emerging economy which has a high level of income inequality and CO2 emissions. Therefore, this paper concentrates on the income inequality-CO2 emissions link in Turkish economy by applying a nonlinear analysis. This paper integrates economic growth and financial development to the CO2 emissions specification over the period of 1987–2019. We employ the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach to explore the long-run nonlinear linkages between the series. Our findings reveal an asymmetric cointegration among variables. Positive and negative income inequality shocks positively affect CO2 emissions implying that positive and negative shocks of income inequality enhance CO2 emissions in the long run. Negative economic growth shocks decrease CO2 emissions, while positive shocks to financial development increase CO2 emissions in the long run. We provide important policy suggestions that might be useful to the policymakers to decrease CO2 emissions in Turkey.

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8.
Economic Analysis of CO2 Emission Trends in China   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Climate change is one of hot spots all around the world. China, the second biggest CO2 emitter, is facing increasingly severe pressure to reduce CO2 emission. The article first describes Kaya Identity and its policy implications. Second, it uses the modified Kaya Identity and makes decomposition without residues on CO2 emission during the period 1971-2005. Taking into account the changes of macroeconomic background, it conducts a detailed analysis in terms of CO2 emission trend from 4th Five Year Plan through 10th Five Year Plan. The decomposition results indicate that economic development and increase in population are major driving forces, and that improvement in energy efficiency contributes to the reduction of CO2 emission, and that decarbonization in primary energy structure is also an important strategic choice. Finally, the article stresses that in CO2 order to realize the binding target of 20% reduction in GDP energy intensity during the 11th Five Year Plan, China should speed up the readjustment of the industrial structure and energetically develop the energy-efficient technologies and clean fuel technology, which will effectively promote the country to reduce CO2 emission and contribute to the mitigation of climate change.  相似文献   

9.
Based on the China high resolution emission gridded data (1 km spatial resolution), this article is aimed to create a Chinese city carbon dioxide (CO2) emission data set using consolidated data sources as well as normalized and standardized data processing methods. Standard methods were used to calculate city CO2 emissions, including scope 1 and scope 2. Cities with higher CO2 emissions are mostly in north, northeast, and eastern coastal areas. Cities with lower CO2 emissions are in the western region. Cites with higher CO2 emissions are clustered in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region (such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan), and the Yangtze River Delta region (such as Shanghai and Suzhou). The city per capita CO2 emission is larger in the north than the south. There are obvious aggregations of cities with high per capita CO2 emission in the north. Four cities among the top 10 per capita emissions (Erdos, Wuhai, Shizuishan, and Yinchuan) cluster in the main coal production areas of northern China. This indicates the significant impact of coal resources endowment on city industry and CO2 emissions. The majority (77%) of cities have annual CO2 emissions below 50 million tons. The mean annual emission, among all cities, is 37 million tons. Emissions from service-based cities, which include the smallest number of cities, are the highest. Industrial cities are the largest category and the emission distribution from these cities is close to the normal distribution. Emissions and degree of dispersion, in the other cities (excluding industrial cities and service-based cities), are in the lowest level. Per capita CO2 emissions in these cities are generally below 20 t/person (89%) with a mean value of 11 t/person. The distribution interval of per capita CO2 emission within industrial cities is the largest among the three city categories. This indicates greater differences among per capita CO2 emissions of industrial cities. The distribution interval of per capita CO2 emission of other cities is the lowest, indicating smaller differences of per capita CO2 emissions among this city category. Three policy suggestions are proposed: first, city CO2 emission inventory data in China should be increased, especially for prefecture level cities. Second, city responsibility for emission reduction, and partitioning the national goal should be established, using a bottom-up approach based on specific CO2 emission levels and potential for emission reductions in each city. Third, comparative and benchmarking research on city CO2 emissions should be conducted, and a Top Runner system of city CO2 emission reduction should be established.  相似文献   

10.
Various biotic and abiotic stress factors affect the growth and productivity of crop plants. Particularly, the climatic and/or heavy metal stress influence various processes including growth, physiology, biochemistry, and yield of crops. Climatic changes particularly the elevated atmospheric CO2 enhance the biomass production and metal accumulation in plants and help plants to support greater microbial populations and/or protect the microorganisms against the impacts of heavy metals. Besides, the indirect effects of climatic change (e.g., changes in the function and structure of plant roots and diversity and activity of rhizosphere microbes) would lead to altered metal bioavailability in soils and concomitantly affect plant growth. However, the effects of warming, drought or combined climatic stress on plant growth and metal accumulation vary substantially across physico–chemico–biological properties of the environment (e.g., soil pH, heavy metal type and its bio-available concentrations, microbial diversity, and interactive effects of climatic factors) and plant used. Overall, direct and/or indirect effects of climate change on heavy metal mobility in soils may further hinder the ability of plants to adapt and make them more susceptible to stress. Here, we review and discuss how the climatic parameters including atmospheric CO2, temperature and drought influence the plant–metal interaction in polluted soils. Other aspects including the effects of climate change and heavy metals on plant–microbe interaction, heavy metal phytoremediation and safety of food and feed are also discussed. This review shows that predicting how plant–metal interaction responds to altering climatic change is critical to select suitable crop plants that would be able to produce more yields and tolerate multi-stress conditions without accumulating toxic heavy metals for future food security.  相似文献   

11.
This study analyzed the impact of urbanization and the level of economic development on CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model and provincial panel data for China. This study classified the 29 provinces of China into three groups (eastern, central, and western regions) and examined regional differences in the environmental impacts of urbanization and economic development levels. The results demonstrated that there was an inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions in the central and western regions of China. However, we did not confirm the environmental Kuznets curve relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions in eastern China, where CO2 emissions increase monotonically with urbanization. This study showed that the impacts of urbanization differ considerably. There was a U-shaped relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions. However, the point of inflexion was very low, which indicates that economic growth will promote CO2 emissions in China. The share of the industry output value had a marginal incremental effect on CO2 emissions. There was a decreasing effect of population scale on CO2 emissions. Energy efficiency is the main factor that restrains CO2 emissions, and the effect was higher in regions with low energy efficiency.  相似文献   

12.
The present study investigates the energy, environment and growth nexus for a panel of South Asian countries including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. The simultaneous analysis of real GDP, energy consumption and CO2 emissions is conducted for the period 1980–2010. Levin panel unit root test and Im test panel unit root both indicate that all the variables are I (1). In addition, Kao’s panel Cointegration test specifies a stable long-term relationship between all these variables. Empirical findings show that a 1 % increase in energy consumption increases output by 0.81 % in long run whereas for the same increase in CO2 emission output falls by 0.17 % in long run. Panel Granger causality tests report short-run causality running from energy consumption to CO2 emissions and from CO2 emissions to GDP.  相似文献   

13.
The past decade has seen the rapid development of the tourist industry in Southeast Asia. There is increasing concern that tourism is highly affecting CO2 emissions, but the nature of the relationship is still unclear. The main target of this paper is to investigate the existence of a linear and/or nonlinear relationship between tourism and CO2 emissions in the five most important countries located in Southeast Asia, using the panel cointegration and pooled mean group techniques. The results indicate that tourism and CO2 emissions are cointegrated, implying that tourism affects CO2 emissions in the long run. Our findings support the nonlinear relationship between tourism and emissions as well as economic activities and CO2 emissions. Accordingly, an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between tourism and emissions confirming the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in the Southeast Asian tourism industry. Furthermore, the empirical results show that economic activities and energy consumption greatly increase emissions.  相似文献   

14.
The building sector has been regarded as a potential sector where there is large capacity to reduce the climate change effect. This study has proposed solutions to mitigate environmental impacts and achieve low CO2 emission from residential sector. Therefore, full life cycle assessment (LCA) has been run to assess the CO2 emission and its effect on the atmosphere and climate change. Based on the result, timber scheme is the best choice due to releasing less CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. However, house builders in Malaysia have almost completely neglected timber as a building material, with timber use as building components reduced to 5%. In this study, LCA Software was used to assess CO2 emissions from different wall construction. The alternative building scheme has been made by reinforce steel stud, wooden beam and timber wall (S8) to improve the scheme deficiency while releasing less CO2 emissions compared to other schemes. Therefore, S8 has a decreased CO2 effect by 85% less than precast concrete frame and 90% less than brick over their lifetime. (S8) increased the load bearing compared to conventional timber beam. Thus, new scheme S8 could be replaced by current scheme and promote more adjustable scheme for Malaysian housing.  相似文献   

15.
Past increase of atmospheric CO2 involves significant contributions from both fossil and biospheric sources. The latter are controversial, partly because these CO2 releases may be balanced by accelerated regrowth following clearing of some forests, while others were being converted to agricultural or other nonforest land. A simulation model was used to reconstruct changes since 1860 and project four hypothetical future scenarios of CO2 injection to 2460. Nineteen compartments and their exchanges of carbon were considered. Areal extents of tropical forests, other wooded ecosystems, and nonforests were incorporated into the model. Rapidly and slowly exchanging pools of carbon per unit area were projected by integrating income-loss differential equations numerically. Estimated cumulative releases of CO2 from fossil fuels (plus cement) near 120 Pg of carbon (1 Pg = 1015 g) from 1860 to 1970 were assumed to equal the prompt plus delayed releases due to forest clearing. Limits of exploitable forest area and biomass were evaluated and found to contribute much less future CO2 than usable fossil fuels. Ultimate release from the latter (7500±2500 Pg C) could increase atmospheric CO2 manyfold: doubling the assumed 1860 levels as early as (1) the year 2032 for assumed early fossil-use scenarios and (2) the year 2045 for late fossil-use scenarios. Depending on the poorly known parametes that were programmed to constrain the organic production rates, cumulative storage, and the response of plants and soils to enhanced atmospheric CO2, biospheric storage might reach higher levels for all scenarios than the estimates given here. However, maximizing such storage in real life would require much closer understanding and wiser management of ecosystems than history has shown.  相似文献   

16.
A sensitivity study was performed to investigate the responses of potential natural vegetation distribution in China to the separate and combined effects of temperature, precipitation and [CO2], using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME4. The model shows a generally good agreement with a map of the potential natural vegetation distribution based on a numerical comparison using the ΔV statistic (ΔV = 0.25). Mean temperature of each month was increased uniformly by 0–5 K, in 0.5- or 1-K intervals. Mean precipitation of each month was increased and decreased uniformly by 0–30%, in 10% intervals. The analyses were run at fixed CO2 concentrations of 360 and 720 ppm. Temperature increases shifted most forest boundaries northward and westward, expanded the distribution of xeric biomes, and confined the tundra to progressively higher elevations. Precipitation increases led to a greater area occupied by mesic biomes at the expense of xeric biomes. Most vegetation types in the temperate regions, and on the Tibetan Plateau, expanded westward into the dry continental interior with increasing precipitation. Precipitation decreases had opposite effects. The modelled effect of CO2 doubling was to partially compensate for the negative effect of drought on the mesic biomes and to increase potential ecosystem carbon storage by about 40%. Warming tended to counteract this effect, by reducing soil carbon storage. Forest biomes showed substantial resilience to climate change, especially when the effects of increasing [CO2] were taken into account. Savannas, dry woodland and tundra biomes proved sensitive to temperature increases. The transition region of grassland and forest, and the Tibetan plateau, was the most vulnerable region.  相似文献   

17.
Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from agricultural farming practice contribute significantly to European GHG inventories. For example, CO2 is emitted when grassland is converted to cropland or when peatlands are drained and cultivated. N2O emissions result from fertilization. Enabling farmers to reduce their GHG emissions requires sufficient information about its pressure–impact relations as well as incentives, such as regulations and funding, that support climate-friendly agricultural management. This paper discusses potentials to improve the supply of information on: farm-specific climate services or impacts, present policy incentives in Germany and England that support climate-friendly farm management and related adaptation requirements. Tools which have been developed for a farm environmental management software (to be added after review because of potential identification) are presented. These tools assess CO2 emissions from grassland conversion to cropland and peatland cultivation, as well as N2O emissions from nitrogen fertilization. As input data, the CO2 tool requires a classification of soil types according to soil organic carbon storage. The input data based on soil profile samples was compared with reference data from the literature. The N2O tool relies on farm data concerning fertilization. These tools were tested on three farms in order to determine their viability with respect to the availability of required data and the differentiation of results, which determines how well site-specific conservation measures can be identified. Assessing CO2 retention function of grassland conservation to cropland on the test farms leads to spatially differentiated results (~100 to ~900 potentially mitigated t CO2 ha?1). Assessed N2O emissions varied from 0.41 to 1.1 t CO2eq. ha?1 a?1. The proposed methods support policies that promote a more differentiated funding of climate conservation measures. Conservation measures and areas can be selected so that they will have the greatest mitigation effects. However, even though present policy instruments in Germany and England, such as Cross Compliance and agri-environmental measures, have the potential to reduce agricultural GHG, they do not appear to guide measures effectively or site-specifically. In order to close this gap, agri-environmental measures with the potential to support climate protection should be spatially optimized. Additionally, the wetland restoration measures which are most effective in reducing GHG emissions should be included in funding schemes.  相似文献   

18.
Urban horticulture, defined as plant production activities that are conducted in a city or suburb that produce horticultural plants that are wholly or partially edible, and which are economically viable, has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions caused by the transportation of produce. Moreover, to increase productivity in limited areas and use limited resources effectively, closed or semi-closed systems (i.e., greenhouses) are considered more advantageous than open systems (i.e., fields) from which resources can easily escape into the surrounding environment. In this paper the significance of urban horticulture in reducing CO2 emissions in the transportation process is discussed with reference to simple case studies. In the context of building or rebuilding greenhouses suitable for urban horticulture, the present situation regarding resource inputs and outputs in greenhouses is compared to that in open fields. The reduction of resource inputs and outputs in greenhouse production is also discussed.  相似文献   

19.
Reaction of CO2 with LiOH requires the presence of water in an amount sufficient to produce monohydrate thium hydroxide (LiOH · H2O) prior to or simultaneously with the CO2 reaction. For a given CO2 content in the air stream at any given temperature, there is a corresponding humidity of the feed stream which results in maximum CO2 absorption efficiency. Two commercially available LiOH granules with different porosities and water contents were studied. The combined effects of temperature and humidity on CO2 absorption patterns and CO2 absorption capacities were observed. Results showed that temperature and water content of the air stream did change the CO2 absorption pattern and the CO2 absorption capacity for LiOH absorbent.When the relative humidity in the air stream is below 14%, anhydrous LiOH has a higher CO2 absorption capacity at higher temperatures. However, above 40% relative, lower temperatures are favored. Partially hydrated LiOH granules have a higher CO2 absorptions capacity at lower temperatures at all relative humidities in the air stream except 14%.  相似文献   

20.
The Pechelbronn oilfield (Rhine Graben, France), where mining activity ended in the 1960s, has been used for waste disposal for twenty years. Since the wastes are varied, work is underway to identify the discharged materials and their derivatives, as well as to locate and quantify potential discharge sites. Two major goals were assigned to the present work. The first was to identify or refine the location of hidden structures that could facilitate gas emanation up to the surface, by studying soil gas concentrations (mainly 222Rn, CO2, CH4 and helium) and carbon isotope ratios in the CO2 phase. The second was devoted to examining, from a health and safety viewpoint, if the use of the oilfield as a waste disposal site might have led to enhanced or modified gas emanation throughout the area.It appeared that CO2 and 222Rn evolution in the whole area were similar, except near some of the faults and fractures that are known through surface mapping and underground observations. These 222Rn and CO2 anomalies made it possible to highlight more emissive zones that are either related to main faults or to secondary fractures acting as migration pathways. In that sense, the CO2 phase can be used to evaluate 222Rn activities distant from tectonic structures but can lead to erroneous evaluations near to gas migration pathways. Dumping of wastes, as well as oil residues, did not appear to have a strong influence on soil gaseous species and emanation. Similarly, enhanced gas migration due to underground galleries and exploitation wells has not been established. Carbon isotope ratios suggested a balance of biological phenomena, despite the high CO2 contents reached. Other monitored gaseous species (N2, Ar, H2 and alkanes), when detected, always showed amounts close to those found subsurface and/or in atmospheric gases.  相似文献   

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