Climate change, water availability and future cereal production in China

Climate scenarios from a regional climate model are used to drive crop and water simulation models underpinned by the IPCC A2 and B2 socio-economic development pathways to explore water availability for agriculture in China in the 2020s and 2040s. Various measures of water availability are examined at river basin and provincial scale in relation to agricultural and non-agricultural water demand and current and planned expansions to the area under irrigation. The objectives are to understand the influences of different drivers on future water availability to support China's food production. Hydrological simulations produce moderate to large increases in total water availability in response to increases in future precipitation. Total water demand increases nationally and in most basins, but with a decreasing share for agriculture due primarily to competition from industrial, domestic and municipal sectors. Crop simulations exhibit moderate to large increases in irrigation water demand which is found to be highly sensitive to the characteristics of daily precipitation in the climate scenarios. The impacts of climate change on water availability for agriculture are small compared to the role of socio-economic development.The study identifies significant spatial differences in impacts at the river basin and provincial level. In broad terms water availability for agriculture declines in southern China and remains stable in northern China. The combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development produce decreases in future irrigation areas, especially the area of irrigated paddy rice. Overall, the results suggest that there will be insufficient water for agriculture in China in the coming decades, due primarily to increases in water demand for non-agricultural uses, which will have significant implications for adaptation strategies and policies for agricultural production and water management.     

Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability

Meeting the growing demand for food in the future will require adaptation of water and land management to future conditions. We studied the extent of different adaptation options to future global change in the Mediterranean region, under scenarios of water use and availability. We focused on the most significant adaptation options for semiarid regions: implementing irrigation, changes to cropland intensity, and diversification of cropland activities. We used Conversion of Land Use on Mondial Scale (CLUMondo), a global land system model, to simulate future change to land use and land cover, and land management. To take into account future global change, we followed global outlooks for future population and climate change, and crop and livestock demand. The results indicate that the level of irrigation efficiency improvement is an important determinant of potential changes in the intensity of rain-fed land systems. No or low irrigation efficiency improvements lead to a reduction in irrigated areas, accompanied with intensification and expansion of rain-fed cropping systems. When reducing water withdrawal, total crop production in intensive rain-fed systems would need to increase significantly: by 130% without improving the irrigation efficiency in irrigated systems and by 53% under conditions of the highest possible efficiency improvement. In all scenarios, traditional Mediterranean multifunctional land systems continue to play a significant role in food production, especially in hosting livestock. Our results indicate that significant improvements to irrigation efficiency with simultaneous increase in cropland productivity are needed to satisfy future demands for food in the region. The approach can be transferred to other similar regions with strong resource limitations in terms of land and water.     

Coping with changing water resources: The case of the Syr Darya river basin in Central Asia

This paper discusses how climatic-hydrological and socio-political developments will affect water allocation in the Syr Darya river basin and which adaptation measures will be needed to cope with changing water resources. In view of the geo-political complexity, climate-driven changes in water availability are of particular importance in this region. Water shortages during summer will become more frequent as precipitation is expected to further decrease and glacial meltwater releases will decrease in the long-term due to reduced glacier volume. Being the main valve to the entire Syr Darya river system, the Toktogul reservoir in Kyrgyzstan could take over, at least partly, the role of glaciers as seasonal water redistributors, thus allowing the generation of energy in winter – benefiting upstream countries – and irrigation for large-scale agriculture in summer – benefiting downstream countries. To date, however, there is no regional consensus on a balanced reservoir management, which currently favours irrigation according to past Soviet priorities. Moreover, the perception of water as a ‘national concern’ in Central Asia discourages efforts towards cooperation between states at the regional level. So far, climate change adaptation has focused on technical rather than institutional solutions. We suggest that policy-relevant adaptation measures should include consistent data collection and dissemination, cross-sectoral collaboration, promotion of national responsibility and initiative, and agreeing on a regional strategy.     

气候变化对中国黄淮海农业区小麦生产影响模拟研究

研究首先利用1980-2000年黄淮海农业区10个站点的农业数据对CER ES-W heat动态机理作物模型进行详细的验证,然后将CERESW-heat模型与两个全球气候模式(G ISS和H adley)结合,同时考虑到CO2对小麦的直接施肥作用,模拟了黄淮海农业区10个站点在IPCC SR ES A 2和B2两个气候情景下雨养和灌溉小麦产量和水分利用的变化趋势。得到如下结论:在不考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,黄淮海农业区雨养小麦全面减产,空间分布特点是西部减产幅度大,东部减产幅度小;在充分灌溉的情况下,灌溉小麦产量维持了现有水平,但灌溉水量增加。因此,在未来该地区水资源短缺的情况下,如何合理利用有限的水资源将成为黄淮海农业区主要面临的问题。在考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,雨养和灌溉小麦产量都全面增产,雨养小麦的增产幅度明显偏高,灌溉小麦约增产10%～30%,但CO 2的肥效能否充分实现还需要进一步研究证明。     

Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India

An ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) runs from the EU HighNoon project are used to project future air temperatures and precipitation on a 25 km grid for the Ganges basin in northern India, with a view to assessing impact of climate change on water resources and determining what multi-sector adaptation measures and policies might be adopted at different spatial scales.The RCM results suggest an increase in mean annual temperature, averaged over the Ganges basin, in the range 1–4 °C over the period from 2000 to 2050, using the SRES A1B forcing scenario. Projections of precipitation indicate that natural variability dominates the climate change signal and there is considerable uncertainty concerning change in regional annual mean precipitation by 2050. The RCMs do suggest an increase in annual mean precipitation in this region to 2050, but lack significant trend. Glaciers in headwater tributary basins of the Ganges appear to be continuing to decline but it is not clear whether meltwater runoff continues to increase. The predicted changes in precipitation and temperature will probably not lead to significant increase in water availability to 2050, but the timing of runoff from snowmelt will likely occur earlier in spring and summer. Water availability is subject to decadal variability, with much uncertainty in the contribution from climate change.Although global social-economic scenarios show trends to urbanization, locally these trends are less evident and in some districts rural population is increasing. Falling groundwater levels in the Ganges plain may prevent expansion of irrigated areas for food supply. Changes in socio-economic development in combination with projected changes in timing of runoff outside the monsoon period will make difficult choices for water managers.Because of the uncertainty in future water availability trends, decreasing vulnerability by augmenting resilience is the preferred way to adapt to climate change. Adaptive policies are required to increase society's capacity to adapt to both anticipated and unanticipated conditions. Integrated solutions are needed, consistent at various spatial scales, to assure robust and sustainable future use of resources. For water resources this is at the river basin scale. At present adaptation measures in India are planned at national and state level, not taking into account the physical boundaries of water systems. To increase resilience adaptation plans should be made locally specific. However, as it is expected that the partitioning of water over the different sectors and regions will be the biggest constraint, a consistent water use plan at catchment and river basin scale may be the best solution. A policy enabling such river basin planning is essential.     

The vulnerability of hydropower production in the Zambezi River Basin to the impacts of climate change and irrigation development

The Zambezi River Basin in southern Africa is relatively undeveloped from both a hydropower and irrigated agriculture perspective, despite the existence of the large Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams. Accelerating economic growth increases the potential for competition for water between hydropower and irrigated agriculture, and climate change will add additional stresses to this system. The objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of major existing and planned new hydropower plants to changes in climate and upstream irrigation demand. Our results show that Kariba is highly vulnerable to a drying climate, potentially reducing average electricity generation by 12 %. Furthermore, the expansion of Kariba generating capacity is unlikely to deliver the expected increases in production even under a favourable climate. The planned Batoka Gorge plant may also not be able to reach the anticipated production levels from the original feasibility study. Cahora Bassa’s expansion is viable under a wetting climate, but its potential is less likely to be realised under a drying climate. The planned Mphanda Nkuwa plant can reach expected production levels under both climates if hydropower is given water allocation priority, but not if irrigation is prioritised, which is likely. For both Cahora Bassa and Mphanda Nkuwa, prioritising irrigation demand over hydropower could severely compromise these plants’ output. Therefore, while climate change is the most important overall driver of variation in hydropower potential, increased irrigation demand will also have a major negative impact on downstream plants in Mozambique. This implies that climate change and upstream development must be explicitly incorporated into both project and system expansion planning.     

Scarce water resources and priority irrigation schemes from agronomic crops

Global environmental change places unavoidable pressure on water resources and agronomic crop production systems. Irrigation development is a credible measure to alleviate the challenge of food safety under water shortages, but it needs sufficient basis. The aim of this study is to address the problem of balancing water scarcity with food requirements, which are the key components of water security in regions with population growth. Marginal water productivity (MWP) indices for irrigation water performance and productivity evaluation were established in the current study. Based on the analysis of the regional water-crop relationship and spatial differences of MWP in China, the priorities for developing irrigation areas in different types of regions are discussed in this study. The results show that high MWPs are mainly in semi-arid regions with precipitation (P) between 500 and 1000 mm, while low MWPs mostly occur in areas with P more than 1000 and less than 500 mm. The significance and spatial distribution patterns of MWP are different than those of conventional irrigation water use efficiency evaluation indices, so its role cannot be replaced for the real production capacity of irrigation water evaluation. The strategies for global environmental change adaptation suggested in this study are taking MWP for irrigation water productivity evaluation and the priority irrigation schemes for agronomic crop determination; increasing MWP by means of irrigation efficiency and crop variety improvement worldwide; and raising global food production through the expansion of irrigation area in the regions hold high MWP and abundant water resources.

     

Climate change impact, mitigation and adaptation strategies for agricultural and water resources, in Ganga Plain (India)

Agriculture consumes more than two-thirds of global fresh water out of which 90 % is used by developing countries. Freshwater consumption worldwide is expected to rise another 25 %by 2030 due to increase in population from 6.6 billion currently to about 8 billion by 2030 and over 9 billion by 2050. Worldwide climate change and variability are affecting water resources and agricultural production and in India Ganga Plain region is one of them. Hydroclimatic changes are very prominent in all the regions of Ganga Plain. Climate change and variability impacts are further drying the semi-arid areas and may cause serious problem of water and food scarcity for about 250 million people of the area. About 80 million ha out of total 141 million ha net cultivated area of India is rainfed, which contributes approximately 44 % of total food production has been severely affected by climate change. Further changing climatic conditions are causing prominent hydrological variations like change in drainage density, river morphology (tectonic control) & geometry, water quality and precipitation. Majority of the river channels seen today in the Ganga Plain has migrated from their historic positions. Large scale changes in land use and land cover pattern, cropping pattern, drainage pattern and over exploitation of water resources are modifying the hydrological cycle in Ganga basin. The frequency of floods and drought and its intensity has increased manifold. Ganga Plain rivers has changed their course with time and the regional hydrological conditions shows full control over the rates and processes by which environments geomorphically evolve. Approximately 47 % of total irrigated area of the country is located in Ganga Plain, which is severely affected by changing climatic conditions. In long run climate change will affect the quantity and quality of the crops and the crop yield is going to be down. This will increase the already high food inflation in the country. The warmer atmospheric temperatures and drought conditions will increase soil salinization, desertification and drying-up of aquifer, while flooding conditions will escalate soil erosion, soil degradation and sedimentation. The aim of this study is to understand the impact of different hydrological changes due to climatic conditions and come up with easily and economically feasible solutions effective in addressing the problem of water and food scarcity in future.     

Factor Biases and Promoting Sustainable Development: Adaptation to Drought in the Senegal River Basin

The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification.     

Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change: key information needs to improve policy formulation

The Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP; including regions of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh) is generally characterised by fertile soils, favourable climate and an abundant supply of water. Nevertheless, the challenge of increasing food production in the IGP in line with demand grows ever greater; any perturbation in agriculture will considerably affect the food systems of the region and increase the vulnerability of the resource-poor population. Increasing regional production is already complicated by increasing competition for land resources by non-agricultural sectors and by the deterioration of agri-environments and water resources. Global environmental change (GEC), especially changes in climate mean values and variability, will further complicate the agricultural situation and will therefore, have serious implications for food systems of the region. Strategies to reduce the vulnerability of the region's food systems to GEC need to be based on a combination of technical and policy options, and developed in recognition of the concurrent changes in socioeconomic stresses. Adaptation options need to be assessed with regard to their socioeconomic and environmental efficacy, but a greater understanding of the interactions of food systems with GEC is needed to be able to do this with confidence. This paper discusses information needs relating to resource management and policy support to guide the development of research planning for increasing the robustness of IGP food systems to GEC. Further information is needed to develop a range of adaptation strategies including augmenting production and its sustainability, increasing income from agricultural enterprises, diversification from rice–wheat systems, improving land use and natural resource management, and instigating more flexible policies and institutions.     

黄河三角洲灌区农业配水分析

地处黄河三角洲的东营市共有六大农业灌区,由于黄河经常发生断流,且每年的来水量不断减少,因此,对各个灌区进行合理配水是一个亟待解决的问题。由于统计区域边界与灌区边界不一致,论文应用遥感作为辅助数据对统计数据进行了面插值,获得了各灌区的统计数据,然后应用经济学中边际效益原理,计算了各灌区的农业用水边际效益,从而获得了各灌区的农业用水边际效益曲线,根据边际效益曲线建立了黄河三角洲各灌区的农业配水模型。该模型从经济效益最大化的角度较好地解决了黄河三角洲农业水资源的合理分配。     

Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture: an analysis of potential synergies

As climate changes due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, agriculture will be one of the key human activities affected. Projections show that while overall global food production in the coming decades may keep pace with the food requirements of a growing world population, climate change might worsen existing regional disparities because it will reduce crop yields mostly in lands located at lower latitudes where many developing countries are situated. Strategies to enhance local adaptation capacity are therefore needed to minimize climatic impacts and to maintain regional stability of food production. At the same time, agriculture as a sector offers several opportunities to mitigate the portion of global greenhouse gas emissions that are directly dependent upon land use, land-use change, and land-management techniques. This paper reviews issues of agriculture and climate change, with special attention to adaptation and mitigation. Specifically, as adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture are implemented to alleviate the potential negative effects of climate change, key synergies need to be identified, as mitigation practices may compete with modifications to local agricultural practices aimed at maintaining production and income. Under future climate and socio-economic pressures, land managers and farmers will be faced with challenges in regard to selecting those mitigation and adaptation strategies that together meet food, fiber and climate policy requirements.     

水土资源匹配视角下中国省域农产品供需平衡分析及其政策启示

粮食安全关系到中国稳定与发展和国际贸易秩序。以省级行政区为基本单位,基于2016—2018年各省份常住人口、农产品消费量、农业数据及相关参数,采用生态足迹和水足迹评价方法,在只考虑食用和再生产消费且不考虑地区耕地质量差异的条件下,核算各省份农产品自给的水土资源需求,评价中国省域水土资源承载力状态。结果显示：（1）中国现有耕地资源总量可满足自身耕地总需求（前者是后者1.81倍）,但省际差异大,东部沿海省市耕地不足。（2）农业可用水资源总量亦可满足农业可持续生产需求,但区域严重不平衡,华北平原与宁夏水资源赤字严重,而青藏高原地区、长江以南省份农业可用水资源丰富。（3）水土资源空间不匹配制约了中国农业的粮食生产潜力,不考虑环境净化用水,水土资源匹配状态可满足全国粮食自给需求;但考虑环境净化用水,中国粮食难以实现自给,承载力赤字达33715.50万人。以资源环境可持续为导向,未来中国应从农业生产布局优化、农业结构调整、农业科技、产业与人口转移、农产品进口和农业国际合作等方面着手,解决中国农产品需求问题。     

Artificial lakes as a climate change adaptation strategy in drylands: evaluating the trade-off on non-target ecosystem services

Drylands are very susceptible to the effects of climate change due to water stress. One possible climate change adaptation measure is the construction of lakes to increase water availability for drinking and irrigation (food production) and decrease fire risk. These lakes can also increase local biodiversity and human well-being. However, other non-target services such as carbon (C) storage, water purification, and sediment retention might also change. Our main aim was to evaluate the trade-offs on non-targeted ecosystem services due to lakes construction in drylands. This was done using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling tools, comparing a Mediterranean area located in southwest (SW) Europe, with and without artificial lakes. Results showed that the construction of artificial lakes caused an increase of 9.4% in C storage. However, the consequent increase in agricultural area decreased water purification and sediment retention services. This could diminish the life span of the lakes changing the initial beneficial cost-benefit analysis on lakes as adaptation measures to climate change. As a global measure for mitigation and adaptation to climate change strategy, we consider lake construction in drylands to be positive since it can store C in sediments and reduces the vulnerability to water scarcity. However, as a general recommendation and when built to support or increase agriculture in semi-arid landscapes, we consider that lakes should be complemented with additional measures to reduce soil erosion and nutrient leaching such as (i) locate agricultural areas outside the lakes water basin, (ii) afforestation surrounding the lakes, and (iii) adopt the best local agriculture practices to prevent and control soil erosion and nutrient leaching.     

干旱缺水地区缓解水危机的途径: 水资源需求管理的政策效应

水资源短缺是制约干旱区经济发展的瓶颈因素,缓解水资源供需矛盾必须引入水资源需求管理政策。基于市场机制的价格调整和基于行政管理的数量控制是水资源需求管理的两种重要手段。论文基于分布式水资源-经济模型,在用水需求零增长、用水结构升级调整的情景下,研究了水价调整和水量控制在抑制农业用水需求中的政策效应。结果表明,因现行灌溉水价过低,农户对水价上涨不敏感,水量控制比水价调整更加有效。如果要达到相同的节水效果,水价调整政策下农户收入损失比水量控制要更大。水价调整政策下农户收入损失由于成本上涨和作物结构转换导致,水量控制政策下农户收入损失主要是作物种植规模压缩所致,两种政策均需考虑一定的利益补偿。水价调整和水量控制都会导致种植结构转换,但对区域粮食安全影响不大,对经济作物的影响较大,水价上涨会减少用水量多的作物种植,水量控制会使作物种植结构由单方水效益低的作物转向单方水效益高的作物。     

Environmental impacts of irrigated sugarcane production: Nitrogen lost through runoff and leaching

There is concern about environmental impacts of cropping in catchments of Australia's Great Barrier Reef, especially losses of nitrogen (N) from cropping systems. Sugarcane production in the Burdekin region in the dry tropics stands out from other crops/regions because it is grown with the highest applications of irrigation water and N fertiliser rates of any sugarcane producing region in Australia, attributes which may enhance losses of N. Little is known about N losses from sugarcane production systems, especially irrigated systems. We measured parts of the water and N balance over three sugarcane crops at three contrasting sites in different parts of the Burdekin region, covering a range of soil types/textures and irrigation managements. The experimental data were used to parameterise the APSIM-Sugarcane cropping systems model, and the model then used to ‘infill’ missing data and develop more complete water and N balances for each of the crops at the three sites. The model was also used to simulate long-term yields and N losses through runoff and leaching below the root zone at the sites under a range of N fertiliser and irrigation management practices. Unlike the experience in other cropping systems, N losses through runoff and leaching below the root zone were not higher at our sites than measured in rainfed sugarcane production systems. The long-term simulations showed there were clear opportunities for reducing N losses while maintaining yields through reducing N fertiliser application rates. Simulations results suggested that long-term N surpluses of 50 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, considerably less than those during the experiment or common in the study region, were sufficient to maintain yields but reduce N losses by 50-57%. So, N fertiliser management should aim to keep surpluses to that level. Improved irrigation management could also help reduce N losses but generally to a much lesser extent than reduced N fertiliser applications. Research is required to confirm these predicted benefits, and investigate potential interaction between N fertiliser and irrigation management practices, and impacts of other management practices.     

Changes in terrestrial water stress and contributions of major factors under temperature rise constraint scenarios

The Paris agreement adopted at the 21st Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change stipulates 2 and 1.5 °C targets, but their consistency with sustainable development is poorly understood. This study focuses on water stress defined by annual water consumption-to-availability ratio (CAR) and analyzes the CAR changes for 32 global regions during this century for scenarios of the 2 and 1.5 °C targets. It also estimates contributions of major factors behind such change for addressing the adaptation planning. The results show that the CARs in many (i.e., 25) regions remain very small (less than 0.1) regardless of the future temperature level. For the other seven regions, the CARs undergo significant changes, while the changes and contributing factors to them are different by region and the future temperature level. Possible adaptation strategies are given for regions of significantly increasing CARs. For instance, in Afghanistan and Pakistan and South Africa, the CARs increase mainly due to increases in irrigation water associated with socioeconomic development (i.e., food demand growth). Decreases in water availability and increases in irrigation water due to climate change also contribute to the CAR increases after 2030. The contributions of other factors (i.e., demand changes in municipal water, water for electricity generation, other industrial water, and water for livestock) are small. In these regions, securing water resources as well as irrigation water conservation are important to avoid worsening of the CAR. Adaptation strategy recommendations for other regions are also presented.     

太湖流域城乡建设用地扩张的高程特征变化

文章以城乡建设用地扩张的高程变化为焦点,运用太湖流域1985、1995、2000 和2010 年4 期土地利用数据及90 m DEM数据,通过构建建设用地密度指数、增量比、扩张速度、扩张强度及建设用地高程指数等指标,探寻太湖流域城乡建设用地高程变化的空间分异特征及其演变规律,结果表明:建设用地流域整体扩张的热点从中等高程区向较高和较低高程区转移,且向较低高程区转移态势尤为凸显,流域空间分布上表现为流域东部下游平原河网及北部沿江的城镇密集区和南部苕溪上游山谷地带建设用地向较低高程区逐渐扩张的趋势,而在除苕溪外的流域其他上游山地丘陵区逐渐向较高高程区扩张;新区开发及新城建设推动着城乡建设用地快速扩张,适宜建设土地供给有限与土地财政驱动下用地需求旺盛之间的矛盾迫使建设用地扩张走向较低和较高高程区,尤其苏南城镇密集区向较低高程区转移趋势更显著;建设用地向低海拔地区扩张必然挤占自然蓄滞水空间,分割和阻塞自然行洪通道,且地势低洼处洪水易蓄难排,而高海拔地区扩张会加快汇流缩短下游洪峰时间,导致区域水文安全隐患和内涝事件频发.     

基于灌区尺度的聚落与水土资源空间耦合关系研究——以张掖绿洲为例

灌区是构成绿洲的最基本单元,在人工灌渠系统的强烈控制与引导下,渠系的供水量决定了灌溉面积(水浇地)的大小,而水浇地的规模又决定人口的承载能力,因此,水-土-人系统存在着高度的相互依存性和共生性。论文应用空间自相关分析模型的Getis-Ord G_i^*指数,选取张掖39 个灌区中的3 个灌区(新坝、平川、盈科)分别代表沿山独立灌区、绿洲边缘区灌区和绿洲中腹灌区进行分析。结果表明,新坝灌区受独立水系和水资源保证程度的深刻影响,渠系、水浇地和居民点自干渠向外,由热点地区逐渐转变为冷点地区,居民点、干渠、水浇地具有明显的空间聚集特征,渠系对水浇地分布具有显著的控制和引导作用。平川灌区受黑河干流走向的影响,居民点、水浇地表现出明显的核心-外围特征,黑河沿岸干渠对居民点和水资源具有较强的基础性作用。盈科灌区由于水资源丰富,保证程度高,渠系对于水浇地和居民点的控制作用反而低于其他两类灌区。     

Problems of Syrdarya river basin management

Prior to independence, Central Asian countries were closely interconnected through the regional management incorporating water, energy, and food sectors. This approach, supported by the central government of Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), functioned effectively — meeting the needs of both upstream and downstream countries. However, after independence, Central Asian countries started prioritizing their own economic development policies without due account to regional concerns such as joint use of water resources, leading to instability. In this study, the case of Syrdarya basin was investigated to show how such strategies create tension in the region, since primary focus is given to national interests, without consideration for regional problems. To address this issue, an integrated approach to incorporating water, energy, and agriculture is needed. It is suggested that a single sector approach on water alone does not lead to stability, and a multi-sectoral approach is necessary to ensure sustainable development. Countries sharing benefits from the river have to be responsible for costs of operation and maintenance of the water facilities.