Future carbon balance of China's forests under climate change and increasing CO2

The possible response of the carbon (C) balance of China's forests to an increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration and climate change was investigated through a series of simulations using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon (InTEC) model, which explicitly represents the effects of climate, CO(2) concentration, and nitrogen deposition on future C sequestration by forests. Two climate change scenarios (CGCM2-A2 and -B2) were used to drive the model. Simulations showed that China's forests were a C sink in the 1990 s, averaging 189 Tg C yr(-1) (about 13% of the global total). This sink peaks around 2020 and then gradually declines to 33.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100 without climate and CO(2) changes. Effects of pure climate change of CGCM2-A2 and -B2 without allowing CO(2) effects on C assimilation in plants might reduce the average net primary productivity (NPP) of China's forests by 29% and 18% during 2091-2100, respectively. Total soil C stocks might decrease by 16% and 11% during this period. China's forests might broadly act as C sources during 2091-2100, with values of about 50 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the moderate warming of CGCM2-B2 and 50-200 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the warmer scenario of CGCM2-A2. An increase in CO(2) might broadly increase future C sequestration of China's forests. However, this CO(2) fertilization effect might decline with time. The CO(2) fertilization effects on NPP by the end of this century are 349.6 and 241.7 Tg C yr(-1) under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. These effects increase by 199.1 and 126.6 Tg C yr(-1) in the first 50 years, and thereafter, by 150.5 and 115.1 Tg C yr(-1) in the second 50 years under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. Under a CO(2) increase without climate change, the majority of China's forests would be C sinks during 2091-2100, ranging from 0 to 100 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). The positive effect of CO(2) fertilization on NPP and net ecosystem productivity would be exceeded by the negative effect of climate change after 2050. Under the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests may be a small C source of 7.6 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100. Most forests act as C sources of 0-40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Under the CGCM2-B2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests might be a small C sink of 10.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100, with C sequestration of most forests ranging from 0 to 40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Stand age structure plays a more dominant role in determining future C sequestration than CO(2) and climate change. The prediction of future C sequestration of China's forests is very sensitive to the Q(10) value used to estimate maintenance respiration and to soil water availability and less sensitive to N deposition scenario. The results are not yet comprehensive, as no forest disturbance data were available or predicted after 2001. However, the results indicate a range of possible responses of the C balance of China's forests to various scenarios of increase in CO(2) and climate change. These results could be useful for assessing measures to mitigate climate change through reforestation.     

Relationships between net primary productivity and stand age for several forest types and their influence on China's carbon balance

Affected by natural and anthropogenic disturbances such as forest fires, insect-induced mortality and harvesting, forest stand age plays an important role in determining the distribution of carbon pools and fluxes in a variety of forest ecosystems. An improved understanding of the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and stand age (i.e., age-related increase and decline in forest productivity) is essential for the simulation and prediction of the global carbon cycle at annual, decadal, centurial, or even longer temporal scales. In this paper, we developed functions describing the relationship between national mean NPP and stand age using stand age information derived from forest inventory data and NPP simulated by the BEPS (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator) model in 2001. Due to differences in ecobiophysical characteristics of different forest types, NPP-age equations were developed for five typical forest ecosystems in China (deciduous needleleaf forest (DNF), evergreen needleleaf forest in tropic and subtropical zones (ENF-S), deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF), evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF), and mixed broadleaf forest (MBF)). For DNF, ENF-S, EBF, and MBF, changes in NPP with age were well fitted with a common non-linear function, with R(2) values equal to 0.90, 0.75, 0.66, and 0.67, respectively. In contrast, a second order polynomial was best suitable for simulating the change of NPP for DBF, with an R(2) value of 0.79. The timing and magnitude of the maximum NPP varied with forest types. DNF, EBF, and MBF reached the peak NPP at the age of 54, 40, and 32 years, respectively, while the NPP of ENF-S maximizes at the age of 13 years. The highest NPP of DBF appeared at 122 years. NPP was generally lower in older stands with the exception of DBF, and this particular finding runs counter to the paradigm of age-related decline in forest growth. Evaluation based on measurements of NPP and stand age at the plot-level demonstrates the reliability and applicability of the fitted NPP-age relationships. These relationships were used to replace the normalized NPP-age relationship used in the original InTEC (Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon) model, to improve the accuracy of estimated carbon balance for China's forest ecosystems. With the revised NPP-age relationship, the InTEC model simulated a larger carbon source from 1950-1980 and a larger carbon sink from 1985-2001 for China's forests than the original InTEC model did because of the modification to the age-related carbon dynamics in forests. This finding confirms the importance of considering the dynamics of NPP related to forest age in estimating regional and global terrestrial carbon budgets.     

Soil organic carbon decomposition and carbon pools in temperate and sub-tropical forests in China

Decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) is a critical component of the global carbon cycle, and accurate estimates of SOC decomposition are important for forest carbon modeling and ultimately for decision making relative to carbon sequestration and mitigation of global climate change. We determined the major pools of SOC in four sites representing major forest types in China: temperate forests at Changbai Mountain (CBM) and Qilian Mountain (QLM), and sub-tropical forests at Yujiang (YJ) and Liping (LP) counties. A 90-day laboratory incubation was conducted to measure CO(2) evolution from forest soils from each site, and data from the incubation study were fitted to a three-pool first-order model that separated mineralizable soil organic carbon into active (C(a)), slow (C(s)) and resistant (C(r)) carbon pools. Results indicate that: (1) the rate of SOC decomposition in the sub-tropical zone was faster than that in the temperature zone, (2) The C(a) pool comprised approximately 1-3% of SOC with an average mean residence time (MRT) of 219 days. The C(s) pool comprised approximately 25-65% with an average MRT of 78 yr. The C(r) pool accounted for approximately 35-80% of SOC, (3) The YJ site in the sub-tropical zone had the greatest C(a) pool and the lowest MRT, while the QLM in the temperature zone had the greatest MRT for both the C(a) and C(s) pools. The results suggest a higher capacity for long-term C sequestration as SOC in temperature forests than in sub-tropical forests.     

Forest carbon management in the United States: 1600-2100

This paper reviews the effects of past forest management on carbon stocks in the United States, and the challenges for managing forest carbon resources in the 21st century. Forests in the United States were in approximate carbon balance with the atmosphere from 1600-1800. Utilization and land clearing caused a large pulse of forest carbon emissions during the 19th century, followed by regrowth and net forest carbon sequestration in the 20th century. Recent data and knowledge of the general behavior of forests after disturbance suggest that the rate of forest carbon sequestration is declining. A goal of an additional 100 to 200 Tg C/yr of forest carbon sequestration is achievable, but would require investment in inventory and monitoring, development of technology and practices, and assistance for land managers.     

Tests of soil organic carbon density modeled by InTEC in China's forest ecosystems

The integrated terrestrial ecosystem C-budget model (InTEC) developed by Chen and co-workers has been used successfully to predict carbon dynamics of forests in Canada. It was tested here for forest soil organic carbon (SOC) density of China's northern temperate zone and southern subtropical zone. The results show that the simulated SOC density is highly correlated and in broad agreement with observations in Liping and in Changbaishan, representing the southern subtropical zone and the northern temperate zone in China, respectively. SOC density ranged from 2.2 to 11.2 kg/m(2) in Liping and from 3.4 to 14.8 kg/m(2) in Changbaishan. The correlation coefficients (r(2)) are 0.63 (N=16) and 0.76 (N=14) between the simulated and measured data in Liping and Changbaishan, respectively. The SOC densities under different vegetation types in Liping decrease in the order of mixed forest, broadleaf forest, Chinese fir, couch grass, and Chinese redpine, and in Changbaishan in the order of mixed forest, silver fir, larch forest, and birch forest.     

Impacts of urban forests on offsetting carbon emissions from industrial energy use in Hangzhou,China

This study quantified carbon storage and sequestration by urban forests and carbon emissions from energy consumption by several industrial sources in Hangzhou, China. Carbon (C) storage and sequestration were quantified using urban forest inventory data and by applying volume-derived biomass equations and other models relating net primary productivity (NPP) and mean annual biomass increments. Industrial energy use C emissions were estimated by accounting for fossil fuel use and assigning C emission factors. Total C storage by Hangzhou's urban forests was estimated at 11.74 Tg C, and C storage per hectare was 30.25 t C. Carbon sequestration by urban forests was 1,328, 166.55 t C/year, and C sequestration per ha was 1.66 t C/ha/year. Carbon emissions from industrial energy use in Hangzhou were 7 Tg C/year. Urban forests, through sequestration, annually offset 18.57% of the amount of carbon emitted by industrial enterprises, and store an amount of C equivalent to 1.75 times the amount of annual C emitted by industrial energy uses within the city. Management practices for improving Hangzhou's urban forests function of offsetting C emissions from energy consumption are explored. These results can be used to evaluate the urban forests' role in reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide.     

Carbon sequestration potential in reclaimed mine sites in seven east-central states

Terrestrial systems represent a significant potential carbon (C) sink to help mitigate or offset greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 3.2 Mha are permitted for mining activities in the United States, which are required to be reclaimed with vegetative cover. While site-specific studies have assessed C accumulation on reclaimed mine sites, regional analyses to estimate potential C increases have not been conducted. For this analysis, potential C sequestration is analyzed on 567,000 ha of mine land in a seven-state region reclaimed to cropland, pasture, or forest. Carbon accumulation is estimated for cropland, pasture, and forest soils, forest litter layer, and aboveground biomass by estimating average annual rates of C accumulation from site-specific and general C sequestration studies. The average annual rate of C storage is highest when mine land is reclaimed to forest, where the potential sequestration is 0.7 to 2.2 Tg yr(-1). The C from soils, litter layer, and biomass from mine lands reclaimed to forest represents 0.3 to 1.0% of the 1990 CO2 emissions from the study region (919 Tg CO2). To achieve the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction goal of 7% below the 1990 level as proposed by the Kyoto Treaty requires CO2 emissions in the study area to be reduced by just over 64 Tg CO2. The potential carbon storage in mine sites reclaimed to forest could account for 4 to 12.5% of these required reductions.     

Wood carbon content of tree species in Eastern China: interspecific variability and the importance of the volatile fraction

Data on the mass density and carbon content of tree organs, and in particular stem wood, are essential for accurate assessments of forest carbon sequestration. However most available data, including that for East Asia, has neglected the volatile C fraction. Wood samples were collected and assayed for C content from 14 native tree species in Jilin Province, NE China. C content showed statistically significant variation among species, ranging from 48.4% to 51.0%. The volatile C fraction was non-negligible, averaging 2.2%, and showed high variation among species. As found in prior studies, wood C content was appreciably higher in conifer than hardwood (angiosperm) species (50.8+/-0.1% vs. 49.5+/-0.2%, respectively). Wood carbon density (gC/cm(3)) showed very high inter-specific variation, due mainly to differences in wood specific gravity. Our analyses, in conjunction with recently published data from North America, indicate a global mean value of 47.5+/-0.5% wood C content exclusive of volatile C; the widely used 50% figure corresponds more closely to total wood C inclusive of the volatile fraction. Failure to include volatile C or to use species- or higher-taxon-specific C content values in forest C assessments is likely to introduce biases on the order approximately 4-6%. In addition, the stocks and flows of the volatile C fraction in wood are in themselves an important and sorely neglected aspect of forest C processes likely to be strongly impacted by harvests and other management practices.     

Assessing the potential of native tree species for carbon sequestration forestry in Northeast China

Although the native forests of China are exceptionally diverse, only a small number of tree species have been widely utilized in forest plantations and reforestation efforts. We used dendrochronological sampling methods to assess the potential growth and carbon sequestration of native tree species in Jilin Province, Northeast China. Trees were sampled in and near the Changbaishan Biosphere Reserve, with samples encompassing old-growth, disturbed forest, and plantations. To approximate conditions for planted trees, sampling focused on trees with exposed crowns (dominant and co-dominant individuals). A log-linear relationship was found between diameter increment and tree diameter, with a linear decrease in increment with increasing local basal area; no significant differences in these patterns between plantations and natural stands were detected for two commonly planted species (Pinus koraiensis and Larix olgensis). A growth model that incorporates observed feedbacks with individual tree size and local basal area (in conjunction with allometric models for tree biomass), was used to project stand-level biomass increment. Predicted growth trajectories were then linked to the carbon process model InTEC to provide estimates of carbon sequestration potential. Results indicate substantial differences among species, and suggest that certain native hardwoods (in particular Fraxinus mandshurica and Phellodendron amurense), have high potential for use in carbon forestry applications. Increased use of native hardwoods in carbon forestry in China is likely to have additional benefits in terms of economic diversification and enhanced provision of "ecosystem services", including biodiversity protection.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the Forest sector of Russia: National and project level assessments

Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options in the Russian forest sector include: afforestation and reforestation of unforested/degraded land area; enhanced forest productivity; incorporation of nondestructive methods of wood harvesting in the forest industry; establishment of land protective forest stands; increase in stand age of final harvest in the European part of Russia; increased fire control; increased disease and pest control; and preservation of old growth forests in the Russian Far-East, which are presently threatened. Considering the implementation of all of the options presented, the GHG mitigation potential within the forest and agroforestry sectors of Russia is approximately 0.6–0.7 Pg C/yr or one half of the industrial carbon emissions of the United States. The difference between the GHG mitigation potential and the actual level of GHGs mitigated in the Russian forest sector will depend to a great degree on external financing that may be available. One possibility for external financing is through joint implementation (JI). However, under the JI process, each project will be evaluated by considering a number of criteria including also the difference between the carbon emissions or sequestration for the baseline (or reference) and the project case, the permanence of the project, and leakage. Consequently, a project level assessment must appreciate the near-term constraints that will face practitioners who attempt to realize the GHG mitigation potential in the forest and agroforestry sectors of their countries.     

Net primary productivity of China's terrestrial ecosystems from a process model driven by remote sensing

The terrestrial carbon cycle is one of the foci in global climate change research. Simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is important for carbon cycle research. In this study, China's terrestrial NPP was simulated using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS), a carbon-water coupled process model based on remote sensing inputs. For these purposes, a national-wide database (including leaf area index, land cover, meteorology, vegetation and soil) at a 1 km resolution and a validation database were established. Using these databases and BEPS, daily maps of NPP for the entire China's landmass in 2001 were produced, and gross primary productivity (GPP) and autotrophic respiration (RA) were estimated. Using the simulated results, we explore temporal-spatial patterns of China's terrestrial NPP and the mechanisms of its responses to various environmental factors. The total NPP and mean NPP of China's landmass were 2.235 GtC and 235.2 gCm(-2)yr(-1), respectively; the total GPP and mean GPP were 4.418 GtC and 465 gCm(-2)yr(-1); and the total RA and mean RA were 2.227 GtC and 234 gCm(-2)yr(-1), respectively. On average, NPP was 50.6% of GPP. In addition, statistical analysis of NPP of different land cover types was conducted, and spatiotemporal patterns of NPP were investigated. The response of NPP to changes in some key factors such as LAI, precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, VPD and AWC are evaluated and discussed.     

Enhancing forest carbon sequestration in China: toward an integration of scientific and socio-economic perspectives

This article serves as an introduction to this special issue, "China's Forest Carbon Sequestration", representing major results of a project sponsored by the Canadian International Development Agency and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. China occupies a pivotal position globally as a principle emitter of carbon dioxide, as host to some of the world's largest reforestation efforts, and as a key player in international negotiations aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emission. The goals of this project are to develop remote sensing approaches for quantifying forest carbon balance in China in a transparent manner, and information and tools to support land-use decisions for enhanced carbon sequestration (CS) that are science based and economically and socially viable. The project consists of three components: (i) remote sensing and carbon modeling, (ii) forest and soil assessment, and (iii) integrated assessment of the socio-economic implications of CS via forest management. Articles included in this special issue are highlights of the results of each of these components.     

Land use change effects on forest carbon cycling throughout the southern United States

We modeled the effects of afforestation and deforestation on carbon cycling in forest floor and soil from 1900 to 2050 throughout 13 states in the southern United States. The model uses historical data on gross (two-way) transitions between forest, pasture, plowed agriculture, and urban lands along with equations describing changes in carbon over many decades for each type of land use change. Use of gross rather than net land use transition data is important because afforestation causes a gradual gain in carbon stocks for many decades, while deforestation causes a much more rapid loss in carbon stocks. In the South-Central region (Texas to Kentucky) land use changes caused a net emission of carbon before the 1980s, followed by a net sequestration of carbon subsequently. In the Southeast region (Florida to Virginia), there was net emission of carbon until the 1940s, again followed by net sequestration of carbon. These results could improve greenhouse gas inventories produced to meet reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Specifically, from 1990 to 2004 for the entire 13-state study area, afforestation caused sequestration of 88 Tg C, and deforestation caused emission of 49 Tg C. However, the net effect of land use change on carbon stocks in soil and forest floor from 1990 to 2004 was about sixfold smaller than the net change in carbon stocks in trees on all forestland. Thus land use change effects and forest carbon cycling during this period are dominated by changes in tree carbon stocks.     

Regional inventory of soil surface nitrogen balances in Indian agriculture (2000-2001)

Nitrogen regulates several ecological and biogeochemical processes and excess reactive nitrogen in the environment can lead to pollution problems, including the deterioration of air quality, disruption of forest processes, acidification of lakes and streams, and degradation of coastal waters. Much of the excess nitrogen inputs are related to food and energy production. An important step to understanding the sources of nitrogen and ultimately defining solutions to excess nitrogen is to describe the geographic distribution of agricultural nitrogen contributions from different regions. In this study, soil surface nitrogen loads were quantified for different states of India for the period 2000-2001. Nearly 35.4 Tg of nitrogen has been estimated as inputs from different sources, with output nitrogen from harvested crops of about 21.20 Tg. The soil surface nitrogen balance, estimated as inputs minus outputs, is found to be about 14.4 Tg surplus from the agricultural land of India. Livestock manure constituted a major percentage of total inputs (44.06%), followed by inorganic fertilizer (32.48%), atmospheric deposition (11.86%) and nitrogen fixation (11.58%). Nitrogen balance varied from deficit to surplus for different states. The highest nitrogen surplus was found in Uttar Pradesh (2.50 Tg) followed by Madhya Pradesh (1.83 Tg), Andhra Pradesh (1.79 Tg), etc. A negative nitrogen balance was found in Orissa (-0.01 Tg), Andaman Nicobar Islands (-0.32 Tg) and for some of the northeastern states. Major fertilizer consumption states were found to be Tamilnadu (204 kg/ha), Haryana (132 kg/ha), Punjab (148 kg/ha), followed by others. Similarly, nitrogen inputs from total livestock excretions were found to be high for Kerala (616 kg/ha), Jammu and Kashmir (389 kg/ha), Tamil Nadu (338 kg/ha), etc. The average nitrogen surplus of about 54 kg/ha observed for the agricultural land of the entire country of India is comparatively higher than the average surplus of about 31 kg/ha reported for European countries. These results, obtained from nutrient mass balance calculations, will be useful to formulate nutrient management plans relating to fertilizer usage, livestock management and for adopting some best management strategies at a state level in India.     

Major Forest Types and the Evolution of Sustainable Forestry in China

In this article, we introduce China’s major forest types and discuss the historical development of forest management in China, including actions taken over the last decade toward achieving SMF. Major challenges are identified, and a strategy for SFM implementation in China is presented. China’s forests consist of a wide variety of types with distinctive distributional patterns shaped by complex topography and multiple climate regimes. How to manage this wide array of forest resources has challenged forest managers and policy-makers since the founding of the country. Excessive exploitation of China's forest resources from the 1950s to the late 1990s contributed to environmental problems and calamities, such as floods, soil erosion, and desertification. At the start of the new millennium, the Chinese government decided to shift its emphasis from timber production towards the achievement of sustainable forest management (SFM). With a series of endeavors such as the implementation of the “Six Key Forestry Projects” and the reform of forest tenure policies, and the adoption of a classification system for China's forests, a beginning has been made at reversing the trend of environmental degradation that occurred throughout the latter half of the last century. At the same time, huge challenges remain to be tackled for the development of forestry in China.     

Evaluating Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Options for Virginia

Changes in forest and agricultural land management practices have the potential to increase carbon (C) storage by terrestrial systems, thus offsetting C emissions to the atmosphere from energy production. This study assesses that potential for three terrestrial management practices within the state of Virginia, USA: afforestation of marginal agricultural lands; afforestation of riparian agricultural lands; and changing tillage practices for row crops; each was evaluated on a statewide basis and for seven regions within the state. Lands eligible for each practice were identified, and the C storage potential of each practice on those lands was estimated through a modeling procedure that utilized land-resource characteristics represented in Geographic Information System databases. Marginal agricultural lands’ afforestation was found to have the greatest potential (1.4 Tg C yr⁻¹, on average, over the first 20 years) if applied on all eligible lands, followed by riparian afforestation (0.2 Tg C yr⁻¹ over 20 years) and tillage conversion (0.1 Tg C yr⁻¹ over 14 years). The regions with the largest potentials are the Ridge and Valley of western Virginia (due to extensive areas of steep, shallow soils) and in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain in eastern Virginia (wet soils). Although widespread and rapid implementation of the three modeled practices could be expected to offset only about 3.4% of Virginia’s energy-related CO₂ emissions over the following 20 years (equivalent to about 8.5% of a Kyoto Treaty–based target), they could contribute to achievement of C-management goals if implemented along with other mitigation measures.     

Atmospheric deposition of pesticides to an agricultural watershed of the Chesapeake Bay

The Choptank River watershed, located on the Delmarva Peninsula of the Chesapeake Bay, is dominated by agricultural land use, which makes it vulnerable to runoff and atmospheric deposition of pesticides. Agricultural and wildlife areas are in close proximity and off-site losses of pesticides may contribute to toxic effects on sensitive species of plants and animals. High-volume air samples (n = 31) and event-based rain samples (n = 71) were collected from a single location in the watershed representing regional background conditions. Surface water samples were collected from eight stations in the tidal portion of the river on five occasions during 2000. Chlorothalonil, metolachlor, atrazine, simazine, endosulfan, and chlorpyrifos were frequently detected in the air and rain, with maximal concentrations during the period when local or regional crops were planted. The wet deposition load to the watershed was estimated at 150 +/- 16, 61 +/- 7, and 51 +/- 6 kg yr(-1) for chlorothalonil, metolachlor, and atrazine, respectively. The high wet deposition load compared with the estimated annual usage for chlorothalonil (13%) and endosulfan (14-90%) suggests an atmospheric source from outside the watershed. Net air-water gas exchange fluxes for metolachlor varied from -44 +/- 19 to 9.3 +/- 4.1 ng m(-2) d(-1) with negative values indicating net deposition. Wet deposition accounted for 3 to 20% of the total metolachlor mass in the Choptank River and was a more important source to the river than gas exchange. Estimates of herbicide flux presented here are probably a low estimate and actual rates may be significantly higher in areas closer to pesticide application.     

EPIC modeling of soil organic carbon sequestration in croplands of Iowa

Depending on management, soil organic carbon (SOC) is a potential source or sink for atmospheric CO(2). We used the EPIC model to study impacts of soil and crop management on SOC in corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) croplands of Iowa. The National Agricultural Statistics Service crops classification maps were used to identify corn-soybean areas. Soil properties were obtained from a combination of SSURGO and STATSGO databases. Daily weather variables were obtained from first order meteorological stations in Iowa and neighboring states. Data on crop management, fertilizer application and tillage were obtained from publicly available databases maintained by the NRCS, USDA-Economic Research Service (ERS), and Conservation Technology Information Center. The EPIC model accurately simulated state averages of crop yields during 1970-2005 (R(2) = 0.87). Simulated SOC explained 75% of the variation in measured SOC. With current trends in conservation tillage adoption, total stock of SOC (0-20 cm) is predicted to reach 506 Tg by 2019, representing an increase of 28 Tg with respect to 1980. In contrast, when the whole soil profile was considered, EPIC estimated a decrease of SOC stocks with time, from 1835 Tg in 1980 to 1771 Tg in 2019. Hence, soil depth considered for calculations is an important factor that needs further investigation. Soil organic C sequestration rates (0-20 cm) were estimated at 0.50 to 0.63 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) depending on climate and soil conditions. Overall, combining land use maps with EPIC proved valid for predicting impacts of management practices on SOC. However, more data on spatial and temporal variation in SOC are needed to improve model calibration and validation.