长江流域国家级保护地空间分布特征及其国家公园廊道空间策略研究

长江流域国家级保护地数量庞大、保护类型多样,为了实现对长江流域自然资源的整体保护和管理的目的,从全域尺度分析其空间分布特征是梳理长江国家公园廊道构建的重要基础。通过数理统计与ArcGIS空间分析,结合中国自然地理表征和人文地理表征,对长江流域现有8类共计996处国家级保护地空间的分布特征进行了研究,结果表明：（1）长江流域国家级保护地总体呈集聚分布,并形成三江源区域、三江并流区域、川西高山高原区域、秦岭中段区域、渝西盆地区域、环洞庭湖区域、环鄱阳湖区域、黄山区域、环太湖区域9个集聚区;（2）长江流域国家级保护地主要集中在中切割高山区和中下游低山丘陵平原区,覆盖了河网密布、水资源丰富、植物种类繁多、土壤肥沃、可达性较高、人口密度适中及经济发展水平较高的东部和中部区域。基于其国家保护地空间分布特征,提出构建“长江源头—入海口”重要保护节点、“洞庭湖—鄱阳湖—巢湖—太湖”重要保护片区、“武当山—华釜山—大凉山、巫山—武陵山—药山”重要保护带的“三重要”模式与“国家公园先行区—国家级保护地聚集区—自然、社会、经济优势区—原生动植物本底”的“四层次”体系相结合的长江国家公园廊道空间策略     

Ecology of Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) and Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) in the Altai mountain glacial basins

Data are presented on the ecology of Siberian stone pine and Siberian larch in recent Altai mountain glacial basins at elevations above 2100 m a.s.l. The representative example of the Aktru basin is used to demonstrate the ranges of tolerance of these tree species to a series of ecological factors.     

Temperature niche of the Altai Zokor Myospalax myospalax Laxmann (1773)

With consideration of the data on soil temperature within the range of the Altai zokor Myospalax myospalax Laxmann (1773) published in the Handbook on the Climate of the Soviet Union, it has been shown that the actual temperature niche of this species is relatively narrow. Seasonal movements over the vertical profile of the burrow allow zokors to avoid exposure to subzero temperatures.     

西南地区极端降水的时空变化特征

西南地区是我国山地灾害最为严重的区域之一,而短时极端降水则是山地灾害成灾演化的关键控制因素。以西南地区1960~2011年110个气象站的逐日降水量资料为基础,通过建立起超门限峰值序列(POT),结合GIS空间分析技术与线性倾向估计、Mann Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,研究了西南地区极端降水事件的时空变化规律。结果发现：20世纪60年代以来,西南地区极端降水频数有增加趋势,速率为0017/10 a,极端降水量在总降水量中所占的比重不断增加,增幅为0.638%/10a;西南地区极端降水频数的变化在年代际间存在显著的区域增减差异,增加的区域主要呈现出斑块状分布,而减少的区域则呈现出较明显的条带状分布;云南西南部、贵州大部和四川盆地中部3个区域是极端降水频发区,而川滇交界处的元谋-会理一带和四川盆地北部山区则较少发生极端降水;季风期极端降水频数呈现出明显的增加趋势,速率为0031次/10 a,非季风期极端降水频数则呈现出减少的趋势,速率为-0014次/10 a;季风期和年极端降水频数均没有明显的突变年份,非季风期存在3个突变点,分别是1969、1983和1994年;季风期与年极端降水存在27、15和7 a时间尺度上的周期性振荡,非季风期的周期性振荡则主要集中在27和12 a时间尺度上     

基于GIS的凉山州德昌县滑坡危险性评价

滑坡会对人民生命财产和社会经济发展造成严重威胁。以滑坡发育密集的凉山州德昌县为研究区域,分析了该区滑坡的发育环境和分布特征,选取9类影响因素,运用信息量模型对德昌县滑坡地质灾害进行危险性评价,并以此为基础将研究区划分5个不同等级:极高度、高度、中度、轻度和极轻度危险区。结果表明:(1)滑坡危险性较大的区域主要分布在坡度8°～25°、高差50～100 m以及岩浆岩、变质岩和碎屑岩的区域,断层、水系、道路建设和人类活动均会很大程度的诱发滑坡,且随着降水量的增大滑坡发生的概率也增大;(2)滑坡主要沿河流两岸及外围密集发育,93.95%的滑坡集中在中度及中度以上危险区;极高和高危险区主要集中在安宁河流域、茨达河流域和雅砻江左岸的中高山峡谷地区,县域东部地区危险性较低,受滑坡灾害影响较小;(3)运用ROC曲线验证得到AUC值为0.843,评价结果较合理,可为德昌县的防灾减灾及后续规划工作提供基础的理论支撑。     

云南金沙江流域主要森林植被类型分布格局

云南金沙江流域具有复杂的地形地貌,从地貌格局及气候系统差异上,可将该区域的森林植被类型分异划分为3个区,即西部高山峡谷区、中部中山峡谷和滇中高原区、东部中山山原峡谷区,不同的区域决定不同的植被类型,而典型的植被类型具有指示特定区域的作用。通过分析,把云南金沙江流域不同区域的植被特点、类型进行了阐述。对于该区域的植被恢复,特别是植被类型,是遵照自然规律的原则,保证恢复效果的重要举措。同时,对不同区域森林植被类型及不同区域森林植被垂直差异的论述,阐明了云南金沙江流域不同区域的顶极和亚顶极植物群落,为人工按“近自然化”的原则恢复森林植被提供了参考依据。     

长江流域的自然保护区发展与生态环境建设

长江流域的自然保护区占全流域面积的5．74％,比我国自然保护区 占国土面积的比例低1．9个百分点。保护区数量在80年代增幅最大,面积在90年代增幅最大,这种不同步性在一定程度上反映出保护区经营管理更加注重建立较多的大保护区,保护较大的生态系统。本流域的各类自然保护区的数量和面积与流域内自然生态系统类型的丰富性和珍稀特种的多样性直接相关。生态系统类的自然保护区多分布在长江一线以南,形成4个明显的集中分布地带。野生生物类自然保护区在川西高原、川黔湘接壤带和鄱阳湖附近比较集中。川西南滇西北、川西高山峡谷区、川鄂湘黔接壤区、南岭山地北部等6个区域成为长江流域自然保护的关键区域。长江流域生态环境建设中必须注意资源植物的持续利用、防护林的质量和生态平衡等问题。     

Effectiveness of protected areas in the Colombian Andes: deforestation, fire and land-use changes

Protected areas (PAs) are one of the most common conservation strategies to halt biodiversity loss. However, little is known about their current effectiveness and how they could behave under projected scenarios of change, especially in the mountain ecosystems of the Andean region. In this study, we assess the role of protected areas against deforestation and fire incidence in the Colombian Andes and how variables associated with biophysical and context drivers such as the size, year of creation and geographic location of the PAs affect their effectiveness. For the long-term, we have addressed the question of how effective these areas will be under three different scenarios of change for the period between 2020 and 2050, including a reference scenario and two scenarios of increasing pastureland and croplands. The results obtained indicated that both deforestation and fire levels were significantly lower inside protected areas than outside their borders. Concerning variables affecting deforestation and fire, only the type of ecosystem affected these processes in this study. The magnitude of forest loss was different between the analysed scenarios and depended on the location of the PAs. The PAs located in the Western Mountain Range presented the largest values of deforestation but the lowest number of fire incidences. This finding could be related to the presence of processes other than fire, such as illegal logging or selective extraction. The largest losses are expected in the PAs associated with the Eastern and Central mountain ranges, whereas the Western Mountain range will have the lowest loss. We conclude that although the Andes Mountains are a highly transformed and dynamic region, the current PAs have been effective barriers for deforestation and fire. However, the creation of new areas and the maintenance of the current PAs should take into account the interaction with the surrounding population, especially in those areas that are more sensitive to change.     

长江上游地区不同土地利用方式对山地灾害的敏感性分析--以金沙江一级支流小江流域为例

长江上游是我国山地灾害异常活跃区,其频繁活动与该区域特殊的自然条件和人类经济活动密切相关。从自然和人文交叉最密切的领域——土地利用及其变化入手,选择区内山地灾害频繁活动区——金沙江一级支流小江流域为典型研究区,通过定量分析不同坡度土地利用方式对山地灾害的综合敏感性,发现易致灾的土地利用方式依次为：道路建设用地和工矿用地、>15°的旱地、>15°低盖度草地和人工修建的蓄水区、城市建设用地、>8°的裸岩地、>25°的滩地、>35°的高盖度草地,并根据敏感值的大小进行了敏感性区划。研究成果对规划土地利用方式、布局水土保持工程等具有一定的参考意义。     

Effects of climate change on species distribution, community structure, and conservation of birds in protected areas in Colombia

Climate change is expected to cause shifts in species distributions worldwide, threatening their viability due to range reductions and altering their representation in protected areas. Biodiversity hotspots might be particularly vulnerable to climate change because they hold large numbers of species with small ranges which could contract even further as species track their optimal habitat. In this study, we assessed the extent to which climate change could cause distribution shifts in threatened and range-restricted birds in Colombia, a megadiverse region that includes the Tropical Andes and Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena hotspots. To evaluate how climate change might influence species in this region, we developed species distribution models using MAXENT. Species are projected to lose on average between 33 and 43 % of their total range under future climate, and up to 18 species may lose their climatically suitable range completely. Species whose suitable climate is projected to disappear occur in mountainous regions, particularly isolated ranges such as the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. Depending on the representation target considered, between 46 and 96 % of the species evaluated may be adequately represented in protected areas. In the future, the fraction of species potentially adequately represented is projected to decline to 30–95 %. Additional protected areas may help to retain representativeness of protected areas, but monitoring of species projected to have the largest potential declines in range size will be necessary to assess the need of implementing active management strategies to counteract the effects of climate change.     

基于MODIS的雅鲁藏布江流域干旱动态监测及对植被胁迫作用的研究

基于MODIS数据利用垂直干旱指数模型和重心模型分析了2011年4月~2012年4月的雅鲁藏布江流域干旱动态变化,并就干旱对植被的胁迫作用做了进一步探讨。研究发现：（1）干旱强度减弱区主要分布于雅鲁藏布江流域的中部,而干旱强度增强区则主要集中于该流域的上游及下游地区;（2）2012年4月份雅鲁藏布江流域的总体干旱强度相比2011年4月有所加重,轻度干旱、重度干旱区均有所增长,而湿润区则有一定减小。干旱强度加重较大的区域主要分布于拉萨河流域及＞3 000～4 000 m、＞4 000～5 000 m高度带;（3）雅鲁藏布江流域的NDVI与PDI的重心迁移具有很好的负相关性,说明其干旱动态变化对植被具有较明显的胁迫作用     

试论长江流域自然环境的演化

依据青藏高原不断抬升及第四纪红色风化壳的不同性状,论证长江流域河流网系的台阶性特征,抬升的结果使高原东侧与北部高大山系足以阻隔西北寒流的冬季入侵,同时又强化了东南湿润气流的深入与阻滞于四川盆地西部及云贵高原北侧,因而使湿润亚热带生态环境得以深入上游地区。根据江南丘陵广泛分布的第四纪红色风化壳的特征,论证了整个地区均受到新构造运动抬升的影响,并在漫长的时期里处于湿润亚热带环境,成为孑遗陆生、水生物种得以长期存活的条件,同时使长江流域形成水热资源丰富、物种多样的河流网系。     

大九湖泥炭磁化率及腐殖化度记录的18.7 Ka BP气候变化

神农架大九湖泥炭沼泽是中纬度亚热带地区的高山泥炭沼泽,其连续沉积的泥炭剖面蕴含了丰富的气候变化信息,对揭示我国中纬度地区不同时间尺度的气候环境变化有着重要意义。使用碱提取溶液吸光度法对大九湖泥炭吸光度进行测定,以E4/E6比值表征腐殖化度,同时测定了泥炭的磁化率,通过AMS14C测年技术建立了神农架大九湖泥炭地的年代序列,结合区域的其他气候代用指标,分析大九湖泥炭磁化率与腐殖化度E4/E6的古气候意义：大九湖泥炭频率磁化率值高指示气候冷干,降水量小;磁化率值偏低指示气候暖湿,降水量大。E4/E6值高,腐殖化度低,指示气候冷干;值低,腐殖化度高,指示气候暖湿。探讨大九湖地区末次冰消期以来的气候变化,重建该区18.7 Ka BP 的气候演化过程：末次冰期结束期（18.7~11.7 Ka BP）气候比较冷干,期间存在气候冷暖干湿交替波动;全新世（11.7~0 Ka BP）以来,气温开始回升,气候比较暖湿,期间也存在突发性降温事件,其中,全新世早期（11.7~9.3 Ka BP）气候冷暖干湿交替波动,总体冷湿;全新世中期（9.3~3.5 Ka BP）气候暖湿;全新世晚期（3.5~0 Ka BP）气候温干。 关键词： 泥炭;磁化率;E4/E6;大九湖;气候变化     

基于SRTM DEM数据的三峡库区地貌类型自动划分

传统地貌类型划分时多是基于单一或固定的地形因子进行分析,存在一定的片面性和主观性。以90 m分辨率三峡库区SRTM DEM数据为基础,利用均值变点分析法确定了三峡库区地势起伏度的最佳统计单元面积为234 km2;并采用相关矩阵法和雪氏熵值法获取三峡库区地貌类型划分的最佳因子组合为高程、起伏度、坡度、全累计变率、坡度变率、高程变异系数;同时借鉴遥感图像自动分类原理中的ISODATA非监督分类功能完成了三峡库区8种地貌类型的自动划分。分类结果与三峡库区实际地貌类型相符,对三峡库区资源开发、水土流失、土地利用的研究具有参考价值     

汉江流域秦巴山区中药材资源优势与持续发展

汉江流域秦巴山区生态环境复杂，生物多样性突出，中药材资源丰富，具有很大优势，主要表现在：种类多；产量大；多名优特种类。中药材生产对山区经济发展起重要作用。中药材生产持 拟采取下列措施或途径；建设专门化生产基地；进行综合性经营；加强对野生资源保护性利用；加强科研工作。     

Current state of mountain steppes in Sverdlovsk oblast

The current state and phytodiversity of mountain steppes in Sverdlovsk oblast have been evaluated, involving an inventory of several botanical and botanical-geomorphological natural landmarks in the steppe landscape. New growth localities of rare plant species have been discovered. Scientific and natureconservation significance of the surveyed mountain steppe areas has been demonstrated. A set of informative indices has been used to identify the key protection sites of steppe vegetation. Four sites are recommended for inclusion in the system of specially protected areas with the status of natural landmarks.     

神农架风景资源特色研究

神农架山势雄伟，亚热带与温带叠置的气候条件孕育了丰富多姿的自然景观，其风景资源具有神、奇、珍、幽四大特色。其中以神秘的原始森林和珍稀的野生动植物资源最具魅力。     

汉江流域生态系统服务权衡与协同关系演变

汉江流域是我国南水北调工程的水源地,也是国家重要的生态功能区,定量分析其生态系统服务关系对协调区域发展与保护环境有重要意义。综合利用RS与GIS技术对该区域2000～2015年的土壤保持、碳储量与食物供给服务进行空间制图,并基于空间采样法对3种生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系进行研究。结果表明:(1)在2000～2015年,汉江流域土壤保持量在波动中下降,高值区位于汉江上游林地、草地交叉分布区域,低值区位于汉江中下游林地、耕地等单一聚集地类区;碳储量年际变化较小,其高低值分布与土壤保持量基本相同;食物供给量增长迅速,高值区位于中下游的平原区,低值区位于上游的山地和盆地区。(2)在权衡与协同分析中,碳储量与食物供给、土壤保持与食物供给之间以权衡关系为主,而碳储量与土壤保持以协同关系为主,各生态系统间权衡与协同关系存在空间异质性。(3)空间热点制图显示,2000～2015年0类服务热点区占比减少,主要地类为草地;1类服务热点区占比最大且呈增加趋势,主要地类为耕地,生态服务类型以食物供给为主;2类服务热点区有所减少,多分布在上游林地区域,服务类型为碳储存和土壤保持;3类服务热点区占比很少。该研究结果对揭示生态系统服务之间的区域差异有重要作用。     

基于情景分析的区域洪涝灾害风险评价——以巢湖流域为例

洪涝灾害是制约区域粮食安全和社会可持续发展的主要因子之一。在风险识别的基础上,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体等方面选取评价指标,建立评价指标体系。运用层次分析法确定指标权重,通过情景分析技术从降水、土地利用、人口、GDP等方面构建复合情景;应用GIS空间分析技术构建洪涝灾害风险评价模型,对巢湖流域洪涝灾害风险进行评价。研究结果表明:2020年巢湖流域洪涝灾害危险性由东南部向西北部减小;合肥市区的洪涝灾害易损性最大,和县的易损性最小。巢湖流域东南部洪涝灾害风险最大,西南部的大别山区风险较小,随着重现期的增大,流域的洪涝灾害风险也逐渐增大。模拟灾害发生的情景,并分析不同情景下的洪涝灾害风险,更能体现洪涝灾害的不确定性和变化性,为流域防洪战略决策研究提供科学依据。     

Knowing the past to forecast the future: a case study on a relictual,endemic species of the SW Alps, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Berardia subacaulis</Emphasis>

Future climate change may lead to a substantial loss of biodiversity, particularly affecting mountain regions, including the Alps. Range-size reduction in high mountain plant species is predicted to be more pronounced for endemic species. Investigating the broad temporal spectrum of range shifts is important for the conservation of biodiversity, since learning how species responded to climate change in the past provides useful insights on how they might react to warming trends in the present and future. Using species distribution models and an ensemble forecasting approach, we explored how the distribution of Berardia subacaulis, a monospecific genus endemic of the south-west Alps, may be affected by past and future projected climate change. During the last interglacial, the habitat suitability of Berardia was lower than present and a progressive increase was observed from the last glacial maximum until now. In the future, Berardia appears to lose more than 80 % of its range, becoming endangered by 2050. Our results suggest that Berardia probably survived past warmer periods in situ, expanding its distributional range during cooler periods. The severe future range contraction predicted for Berardia reflects similar results for other endemic species. As Berardia represents an interesting model species to evaluate the effects of climate warming on range size and shifts, demographic and precise range monitoring may be undertaken on this species.