Regional differences and influencing factors in the CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions of China’s power industry based on the panel data models considering power-consuming efficiency factor

With the economic development, China has become the largest CO₂ emissions country. China’s power industry CO₂ emissions accounted for about 50% of total CO₂ emissions. Therefore, exploring major drivers of CO₂ emissions is critical to mitigating its CO₂ emissions in power industry. Many studies considered the time series model to analyze the national influences factors of CO₂ emissions. But this paper focuses on regional differences in CO₂ emissions and adopts panel data models to explore the major impact factors of CO₂ emissions in the power industry at the regional and provincial perspectives. The results indicate economic growth level plays a dominant role in reducing CO₂ emissions. The power-consuming efficiency on the demand side has large potential to mitigate CO₂ emissions, but its influences are different in three regions. The impacts of the electric power structure on CO₂ emissions decline from the eastern region to the central and western regions. The influence of urbanization and industrialization also has significant regional differences. Therefore, the governments should consider the influencing factors and regional differences and formulate appropriate policies to decrease CO₂ emissions in the power industry.     

Tourism and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions nexus in Southeast Asia: new evidence from panel estimation

The past decade has seen the rapid development of the tourist industry in Southeast Asia. There is increasing concern that tourism is highly affecting CO₂ emissions, but the nature of the relationship is still unclear. The main target of this paper is to investigate the existence of a linear and/or nonlinear relationship between tourism and CO₂ emissions in the five most important countries located in Southeast Asia, using the panel cointegration and pooled mean group techniques. The results indicate that tourism and CO₂ emissions are cointegrated, implying that tourism affects CO₂ emissions in the long run. Our findings support the nonlinear relationship between tourism and emissions as well as economic activities and CO₂ emissions. Accordingly, an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between tourism and emissions confirming the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in the Southeast Asian tourism industry. Furthermore, the empirical results show that economic activities and energy consumption greatly increase emissions.     

Dynamic Changes,Regional Differences,and Influencing Factors of CO2 Emission Performance in China

Abstract

This paper proposes to use DEA models with undesirable outputs to construct the Malmquist index that can be use to investigate the dynamic changes of CO₂ emission performance. With the index, the authors have measured the CO₂ emission performance of 28 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 1996 to 2007; with the convergence theory and panel data regression model, the authors analyze the regional differences and the influencing factors. It is found that the performance of CO₂ emissions in China has been continuously improved mainly due to the technological progress, and the average improvement rate is 3.25%, with a cumulative improvement rate of 40.86%. In addition, the CO₂ emission performance varies across four regions. As a whole, the performance score of eastern China is the highest. The northeastern and central China has relatively lower performance scores, and the western China is relatively backward. The regional differences are decreasing, and the performance of CO₂ emissions is convergent. The influence of some factors on the performance of CO₂ emissions is significant, such as the level of economic development, the level of industrial structure, energy intensity, and ownership structure. The influence of some factors, such as opening-up to the outside world, on the performance of CO₂ emissions is not significant.     

Economic growth and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions

This article considers a planner’s optimum control exercise with environmental pollution and derives a testable link between the growth rates of consumption and pollution. The link is then empirically estimated for the case of CO₂ emissions for a sample consisting of the union of top 25 countries in terms of CO₂ emissions, population and per capita GNP. The analysis suggests that the interrelationship between the growth rates of CO₂ emission and economic development is mostly significant for countries that have a high level of CO₂ emissions and population.     

A subsystem input–output decomposition analysis of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions in the service sectors: a case study of Beijing,China

The carbon emissions in service sectors have attracted increasing attention around the world. However, few studies have examined the driving forces for CO₂ emissions from service sectors in developing countries. With the process of accelerating industrialization, China’s service sectors are facing growing pressure to pursue energy savings and emission reductions, especially in several developed regions. In this paper, in order to better understand how CO₂ emissions in Beijing’s service sectors have evolved, we utilized a subsystem input–output decomposition analysis to study the pattern and driving factors of consumption-based emissions in Beijing’s service sectors. The results showed that the transportation sector and the Scientific Studies Technical Services sector caused the most CO₂ emissions in Beijing’s service sectors. The emission intensity effect potentially reduced CO₂ emissions by 10,833 Mt, primarily due to the decreased energy intensity of non-service sectors. Effects of demand and technology were mainly responsible for the increased CO₂ emissions in Beijing’s service sectors. Such influence was mainly related to the external component of service sectors, indicating a strong pull effect exerted by service sectors on non-service sectors. Thus, decarbonizing the supply chain of service sectors and improving the energy intensity are necessary to alleviate CO₂ emissions in Beijing.     

CO2 emission driving forces and corresponding mitigation strategies under low-carbon economy mode: evidence from China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

On account of the background of China’s “new normal” characterized by slower economic growth, this paper analyses the low-carbon economy status quo in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and empirically investigates the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and its various factors for China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region using panel data econometric technique. We find evidence of existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve. Results also show that economic scale, industrial structure, and urbanization rate are crucial factors to promote CO₂ emissions. However, technological progress, especially the domestic independent research and development, plays a key role in CO₂ emissions abatement. Next, we further analyze the correlation between each subregion and various factors according to Grey Relation Analysis. Thereby, our findings provide important implications for policymakers in air pollution control and CO₂ emissions reduction for this region.     

经济增长和环境规制对雾霾的区际影响差异

为探究不同省级区域雾霾、经济增长和环境规制之间的空间关联效应,本文提出针对雾霾的引力模型空间权重矩阵,并利用该矩阵建立了空间杜宾模型,分别对全国、西部、中部和东部省区的面板数据进行了空间计量检验。实证结果显示:全国雾霾的莫兰指数值显著,且取值介于0.367—0.460之间;雾霾"重心"呈现先向东南再向西北移动的趋势,移动距离为76 557 m;雾霾的莫兰指数值为东部省区最大,西部省区最小,中部省区介于二者之间。全国的雾霾与经济增长之间呈显著的"U"型曲线,而西部、中部和东部省区则呈倒"U"型曲线,其中中部省区的曲线最为陡峭,西部省区次之,东部省区最为平缓。环境规制每增加1%,只有西部和东部的雾霾相应减少,且各自相应下降0.009和0.010个百分点。西部和东部经济增长的溢出效应均显著,而环境规制的溢出效应不显著。研究结果表明:(1)雾霾在空间上表现出集聚的特点,全国和三个区域的雾霾都存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,这种空间依赖性在时间维度上大致呈加强的趋势;雾霾的空间相关性表现为东部省区最强,西部省区紧随其后,中部省区最低。(2)西部和东部省区部分省市还未过拐点,全国意义上的环境库茨涅兹假说是不存在的,或者是至少还未出现。(3)西部和东部环境规制效果较为理想,而中部省区的环境规制效果不佳;从全国总体来看,当前的环境规制整体上对雾霾并未起到有效的抑制作用。(4)东西部省区和中部省区经济增长对雾霾溢出效应分别表现为正向和反向;环境规制对雾霾的溢出效应并不显著。建议加强对雾霾的区域协同治理,重点推进西部和东部省区经济结构的转型升级,调整和完善西部、中部和东部省区的环境规制政策。     

Movement towards a low carbon emitted environment: a test of some factors in Malaysia

There exists a high global concern in different nations on environmental sustainability especially at the focal stage of increased economic growth and development process due to high level of environmental degradation and pollution. The major aim of this study was to empirically examine how to minimise carbon emissions (CO₂) in Malaysia which are mainly caused by energy production, fossil fuel consumption, population density and economic growth. The study adopted the method of autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach to analyse the data for the period 1971–2011. The study found that economic growth in Malaysia has a direct relationship with CO₂ emissions in both the short run and the long run. Similarly, there is a positive relationship between fossil fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions over the same period. Population density was found to have positive impacts on CO₂ emissions. Contrarily, the relationship between the activities of energy production and pollution is negative in the long run. The study recommends that a targeted GDP growth rate should be set with the consideration to avoid more environmental pollution. In addition, the positive impact of fossil fuel consumption on the environmental pollution implies that there is a need to make and implement policies that will encourage the use of public transportation system more than private transportations. That is, the unnecessary use of private vehicles should be discouraged in order to reduce the extent of fossil fuel consumption.     

Industrial layout reconstruction,the role of local government and variation of pollution distribution in China

ABSTRACT

In recent years, high-polluting industries have been gradually shifted from the eastern developed regions to the central and western underdeveloped regions in China. Certain environmental regulations have been in place accordingly in various regions, but the pollution in the central and western regions has risen sharply. Based on the data of interprovincial panel in China from 2006 to 2015, this paper calculates high-pollution industry dynamic agglomeration index, environmental pollution agglomeration index and relative environmental regulation intensity index, and uses Generalized Method of Moments to carry out the regression analyses of the whole samples, regional heterogeneity and temporal heterogeneity. The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between relative environmental regulation and environmental pollution concentration in China. The concentration degrees of industrial wastewater pollution and industrial waste gas pollution are deepened, which are mainly caused by the transfer of highly polluting industries. However, the concentration of industrial solid waste pollution caused by the transfer is not obvious. Furthermore, the deepening of industrialization intensifies the concentration of regional environmental pollution. Environmental Kuznets Curve does exist in China, but it is not significant. The increase of labor cost and quality will reduce the concentration of environmental pollution.     

Carbon and energy taxation for CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> mitigation: a CGE model of the Malaysia

Malaysia has made a pledge to reduce voluntarily her carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO₂-e) gas emission’s intensity of gross domestic product by up to 40 % based on 2005 levels by 2020. The country is considering implementing economic instruments, among others, to assist the achievement of emission reduction targets while contributing towards the nation’s energy security and sustainable development goals. This paper develops a computable general equilibrium model with explicit energy-emission linkages to appraise the economy-wide and welfare impacts of carbon and energy tax policies to reduce CO₂ emissions in Malaysia. Results indicate that the negative macroeconomic impacts of carbon and energy taxes are small relative to the quantum of emission reduction. A Hicksian welfare criterion is utilized to determine the impact of revenue natural shifts in carbon and energy taxes. Revenue neutrality assumptions show that carbon taxation is the best choice when it can provide a double dividend if the generated revenue is used for the purpose of consumption subsidy on household purchases. The notion of the double dividend is confirmed when the change in the consumption structure will result in a welfare improvement, while CO₂ emission is decreased effectively. The study also found that carbon tax policy results in greater emission reductions relative to energy taxes, while the use of renewable energy will increase more substantially.     

Long-term trend and spatial pattern of PM2.5 induced premature mortality in China

With rapid economic growth, China has witnessed increasingly frequent and severe haze and smog episodes over the past decade, posing serious health impacts to the Chinese population, especially those in densely populated city clusters. Quantification of the spatial and temporal variation of health impacts attributable to ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has important implications for China's policies on air pollution control. In this study, we evaluated the spatial distribution of premature deaths in China between 2000 and 2010 attributable to ambient PM_2.5 in accord with the Global Burden of Disease based on a high resolution population density map of China, satellite retrieved PM_2.5 concentrations, and provincial health data. Our results suggest that China's anthropogenic ambient PM_2.5 led to 1,255,400 premature deaths in 2010, 42% higher than the level in 2000. Besides increased PM_2.5 concentration, rapid urbanization has attracted large population migration into the more developed eastern coastal urban areas, intensifying the overall health impact. In addition, our analysis implies that health burdens were exacerbated in some developing inner provinces with high population density (e.g. Henan, Anhui, Sichuan) because of the relocation of more polluting and resource-intensive industries into these regions. In order to avoid such national level environmental inequities, China's regulations on PM_2.5 should not be loosened in inner provinces. Furthermore policies should create incentive mechanisms that can promote transfer of advanced production and emissions control technologies from the coastal regions to the interior regions.     

工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响

本文从生产要素投入端将环境污染引至索洛增长模型,理论考察工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响机制,基于1999—2014年我国30个省份的面板数据,以SO_2排放量作为环境污染水平的代理变量,采用面板平滑迁移回归(PSTR)模型检验全国及分区域工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响效应及区域差异性。研究结果表明:随着工业化进程的不断加快,工业产出及污染排放均呈现不断上升的趋势,但由于资本边际收益递减规律使得这种增长趋势逐渐减弱,最终导致经济增长和环境污染增长趋于稳态,当污染排放增长率降低为负时,经济增长对环境污染的影响作用由正向转变为负向。实证表明我国工业经济结构、经济增长与SO_2排放具有显著的产出水平门槛效应,随着经济产出水平由低区制平滑的过渡到高区制,经济增长对SO_2排放的影响由正向促进作用转变为负向减排效应,但工业经济结构对SO_2排放呈现逐渐增强正向促进作用,可见工业经济结构、经济增长对SO_2排放具有显著的非线性影响。此外,研究发现工业经济结构、经济增长对SO_2排放的非线性影响存在显著的区域差异性,东部地区经济增长与SO_2排放呈现显著的倒"U"型曲线关系,而在中西部地区表现出逐渐增强的促进作用,中部地区的工业经济结构对SO_2排放的促进作用最大,西部其次,东部最弱,研究还表明,减排技术水平以及环境治理投资增加对SO_2污染排放具有遏制作用,能源投资的增加加速了SO_2的排放。在未来经济发展中,应摒弃传统"高投入、高消耗"的工业化模式,政府应实施创新管理,完善环境保护立法,鼓励企业发展环境污染治理方面的技术,避免以环境容量过渡为代价,追求工业经济高质量、可持续发展模式。     

Identifying the determinants and spatial nexus of provincial carbon intensity in China: a dynamic spatial panel approach

Is emission intensity of carbon dioxide (CO₂) spatially correlated? What determines the CO₂ intensity at a provincial level? More importantly, what climate and economic policy decisions should the China’s central and local governments make to reduce the CO₂ intensity and prevent the environmental pollution given that China has been the largest emitter of CO₂? We aim to address these questions in this study by applying a dynamic spatial system generalized method of moment technique. Our analysis suggests that provinces are influenced by their neighbours. In addition, CO₂ intensities are relatively higher in the western and middle areas, and that the spatial agglomeration effect of the provincial CO₂ intensity is obvious. Our analysis also shows that CO₂ intensity is nonlinearly related to gross domestic product, positively associated with secondary-sector share and foreign direct investment, and negatively associated with population size. Important policy implications are drawn on reducing carbon intensity.     

西部大开发十五年环境效率评价及其影响因素分析

西部大开发政策实施以来,西部地区实现了快于东部和中部的经济增长。正确认识西部地区经济增长中的环境成本,评价西部地区的环境效率具有重要意义。本文运用考虑非期望产出的超效率SBM模型测算了2000—2014年西部大开发以来的环境效率。研究发现:西部地区环境效率偏低,处于相对无效状态。西部地区环境效率明显低于传统效率,经济增长付出了较高的环境代价。西部大开发以来传统效率与环境效率之间的差距呈现先扩大后缩小的"倒U"型走势变化。西部地区省份环境效率在全国排名靠后,各省份的环境效率呈现出差异化的发展态势,其中重庆和四川排名不断提升,新疆排名逐步回落,内蒙古和广西在西部地区排名相对靠前且比较稳定,云南和陕西一直处于中间水平,贵州、甘肃、青海、宁夏排名相对靠后。西部地区环境效率2000—2003年上升,2004—2010年不断下降,2010—2014年趋于平稳。西部地区环境效率低于东部地区且差距大,也低于中部地区和全国平均水平。通过收敛性检验发现,西部地区各省份间的环境效率差距呈现先缩小后扩大的趋势;西部地区与东部地区间的环境效率差距逐渐扩大,与中部地区间的环境效率差距先扩大后缩小。本文同时采用了Tobit模型进行面板回归,实证分析了西部地区环境效率的影响因素。结果表明:经济发展水平、科学技术水平、能源消费结构、环保投资力度对西部地区环境效率具有显著影响;产业结构变化和对外开放程度对西部地区环境效率影响不显著;西部地区存在环境效率的库兹涅茨曲线。     

环境规制对中国区域绿色经济效率的影响机理研究——基于超效率模型和空间面板计量模型实证分析

基于2000~2015年中国各地区面板数据，在构建绿色经济效率测度指标体系的基础上，运用超效率DEA模型测算中国绿色经济效率，通过对所构建模型普通线性回归得到的残差进行Moran’I指数的计算和检验，发现其存在显著的正相关性，并在此基础上利用空间计量模型分析环境规制水平及其他相关因素对绿色经济效率的影响。结果表明：（1）2000~2015年中国东中西部绿色经济效率和环境规制水平均呈波动上升趋势，并且伴有较为明显的空间差异性特征。但随着时间的推移，各区域绿色经济效率与环境规制水平差异有所减小，呈现收敛的趋势。（2）绿色经济效率与环境规制水平基本呈现出东部地区>中部地区>西部地区的空间分异特征，并随着时间推移两者均出现空间结构不断优化、区域差异逐渐收敛等向好趋势。（3）环境规制水平对绿色经济效率的影响呈现一个先促进后抑制的倒“U”型过程，其中，东中西部地区的环境规制水平对绿色经济效率的影响分别处于不同的阶段；经济发展水平、产业结构高级化和科研水平与绿色经济效率呈现显著的正相关关系，而利用外资水平与绿色经济效率则呈现显著的负相关关系。     

中国工业绿化度测算及影响因素研究

工业生产是现代物质财富的主要来源,同时也是带来环境污染的重要产业。本文对中国工业增长的绿化度进行了考察。首先采用层次分析法测度2005-2009年中国各地区环境污染综合指数,结果表明2005-2009年这5年间全国大多数地区环境污染指数都有不同程度上涨,平均环境污染指数从2005年的0.208上涨到2009年的0.267,就地区差异而言,环境污染指数呈现东高西低的特征,东部地区环境污染指数平均为0.340,而中部地区和西部地区分别为0.241和0.154,这与东部地区工业较为发达存在密切关系,也印证了中国经济发展仍存在较为明显的粗放式特征;其次,应用DEA方法在综合考虑环境污染和能源消耗问题的基础上测度2005-2009年中国各地区工业增长绿化度,结果表明东部地区工业绿化度明显优于中西部地区,东部地区工业绿化度平均为0.689,远高于中部地区的0.435和西部地区的0.496,而且,"十一五"以来,东部地区工业绿化度上升趋势明显,说明东部地区工业增长正在积极向绿色转型;论文还应用TOBIT回归分析法对影响中国工业绿化度的因素进行分析,研究表明技术进步、结构升级、经济开放都会对工业绿化度产生积极的效应。因此,为促进工业绿色增长中国需要进一步为技术的研发、扩散搭建顺畅的渠道;积极推动产业融合,获得协同收益;有效吸引清洁外资,开展绿色生产。     

On the Nexus of SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions in China: the ancillary benefits of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emission reductions

This paper examines the issue of ancillary benefits by linking sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission to CO₂ emission using a panel of 29 Chinese provinces over the period 1995–2007. In the presence of non-stationarity and cointegrating properties of these two data series, this paper applies the panel cointegration techniques to examine both the long-run and short-run elasticities of SO₂ with respect to CO₂. The major findings are that: (1) there exhibits a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between the SO₂ and CO₂ emission with the long-run elasticity being 2.15; (2) there exists a short-run relationship between these two emissions with the short-run elasticity being 0.04. In addition, following an exogenous shock that causes a deviation from the long-run equilibrium, it would take approximately 15 years for SO₂ emission to revert toward the long-run equilibrium path with an average annual convergence rate of 6.5%; (3) the derived ancillary benefits that is generated from one metric ton of CO₂ emission reduction, are 11.77 Yuan (approximately US1.7) in the short run and 196.16 Yuan (US 1.7) in the short run and 196.16 Yuan (US 30) in the long run. These findings are not only crucial from the econometric modeling perspective, but also have important policy implications.     

Carbon dioxide emissions from cities in China based on high resolution emission gridded data

Based on the China high resolution emission gridded data (1 km spatial resolution), this article is aimed to create a Chinese city carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission data set using consolidated data sources as well as normalized and standardized data processing methods. Standard methods were used to calculate city CO₂ emissions, including scope 1 and scope 2. Cities with higher CO₂ emissions are mostly in north, northeast, and eastern coastal areas. Cities with lower CO₂ emissions are in the western region. Cites with higher CO₂ emissions are clustered in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region (such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan), and the Yangtze River Delta region (such as Shanghai and Suzhou). The city per capita CO₂ emission is larger in the north than the south. There are obvious aggregations of cities with high per capita CO₂ emission in the north. Four cities among the top 10 per capita emissions (Erdos, Wuhai, Shizuishan, and Yinchuan) cluster in the main coal production areas of northern China. This indicates the significant impact of coal resources endowment on city industry and CO₂ emissions. The majority (77%) of cities have annual CO₂ emissions below 50 million tons. The mean annual emission, among all cities, is 37 million tons. Emissions from service-based cities, which include the smallest number of cities, are the highest. Industrial cities are the largest category and the emission distribution from these cities is close to the normal distribution. Emissions and degree of dispersion, in the other cities (excluding industrial cities and service-based cities), are in the lowest level. Per capita CO₂ emissions in these cities are generally below 20 t/person (89%) with a mean value of 11 t/person. The distribution interval of per capita CO₂ emission within industrial cities is the largest among the three city categories. This indicates greater differences among per capita CO₂ emissions of industrial cities. The distribution interval of per capita CO₂ emission of other cities is the lowest, indicating smaller differences of per capita CO₂ emissions among this city category. Three policy suggestions are proposed: first, city CO₂ emission inventory data in China should be increased, especially for prefecture level cities. Second, city responsibility for emission reduction, and partitioning the national goal should be established, using a bottom-up approach based on specific CO₂ emission levels and potential for emission reductions in each city. Third, comparative and benchmarking research on city CO₂ emissions should be conducted, and a Top Runner system of city CO₂ emission reduction should be established.     

NEWS

Abstract

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental friendly scenario of energy demand and CO₂ emissions for sustainable China has been formed based on the results of comparison. Under environmental friendly scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion ton coal equivalence (tce) and CO₂ emissions will be 1.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tce that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than that in Japan in 2003. It is certain that to fulfill the environmental friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO₂ emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors.     

Environmental efficiency and its determinants in the development of China’s western regions in 2000–2014

In this study, we measure the environmental efficiency of western China in 2000–2014 by the super-efficiency slacks-based measure model which considers the undesirable outputs. The results show that the environmental efficiency of western China is low and rank behind in the national level. The environmental efficiency is lower than the traditional efficiency which reflects that the economic growth in 2000–2014 has paid high environmental costs. The difference between the traditional efficiency and environmental efficiency experienced “inverted U”-type trend change. The environmental efficiency of the western provinces presented differentiated developing trend and the differences between the western provinces were enlarging. The environmental efficiency of the western regions was not only lower than that in the eastern regions with a big gap but also lower than that in the central regions. Through the convergence test, we found that the environmental efficiency gap between the western and the eastern regions was gradually expanding; meanwhile, the environmental efficiency gap between the central and the western regions was narrowing. This paper also analyzes the determinants of environmental efficiency by the tobit model and then addresses.