Predicting the Fate and Transport of E. coli in Two Texas River Basins Using a Spatially Referenced Regression Model1

Abstract: The two main rivers of southeast Texas: Guadalupe and San Antonio have shown high temporal increase in bacteria concentration during the last decade. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed (SPARROW) attributes model, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), has been applied to predict the fluxes and concentrations of contaminants in unmonitored streams and to identify the sources of these contaminants. This model identifies every reach as a basic network unit to distribute the sources, delivery, and attenuation factors. The model is data intensive and implements nonlinear regression to solve the parsimonious relations for describing various watershed processes. This study explored watershed and hydrological characteristics (land uses, precipitation, human and animal population, point sources, areal hydraulic load and drainage density, etc.) as the probable sources and delivery mechanisms of waterborne pathogens and their indicator (Escherichia coli [E. coli]) in the Guadalupe and San Antonio River basins. The effect of using various statistical indices for model selection on the final model’s ability to explain the various E. coli sources and transport processes was also analyzed.     

Potential Economic Impacts of Environmental Flows Following a Possible Listing of Endangered Texas Freshwater Mussels

Texas water resources, already taxed by drought and population growth, could be further stressed by possible listings of endangered aquatic species. This study estimated potential economic impacts of environmental flows (EFs) for five freshwater unionid mussels in three Central Texas basins (Brazos, Colorado, and Guadalupe‐San Antonio Rivers) that encompass 36% of Texas (~246,000 km²). A water availability model projected reductions in water supply to power, commercial and industrial, municipal, and agriculture sectors in response to possible EFs for mussels. Single‐year economic impacts were calculated using publicly available data with and without water transfers. Benefits of EFs should also be assessed, should critical habitat be proposed. Potential economic losses were highest during droughts, but were nominal (<$1 M) in wetter years — even with high EFs. Reduced supplies to San Antonio area power plants caused worst‐case impacts of a single‐year shutdown up to $107 million (M) during drought with high EFs. For other sectors in the study area, water transfers reduced worst‐case losses from $80 to $11 M per year. Implementing innovative water management strategies such as water markets, conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater, aquifer storage and recovery could mitigate economic impacts if mussels — or other widely distributed aquatic species — were listed. However, approaches for defining EFs and strategies for mitigating economic impacts of EFs are needed.     

Response of Nitrogen Loading to the Chesapeake Bay to Source Reduction and Land Use Change Scenarios: A SPARROW‐Informed Analysis

In response to concerns regarding the health of streams and receiving waters, the United States Environmental Protection Agency established a total maximum daily load for nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed for which practices must be in place by 2025 resulting in an expected 25% reduction in load from 2009 levels. The response of total nitrogen (TN) loads delivered to the Bay to nine source reduction and land use change scenarios was estimated using a Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes model. The largest predicted reduction in TN load delivered to the Bay was associated with a scenario in which the mass of TN as fertilizer applied to agricultural lands was decreased. A 25% decrease in the mass of TN applied as fertilizer resulted in a predicted reduction in TN loading to the Bay of 11.3%, which was 2.5–5 times greater than the reductions predicted by other scenarios. Eliminating fertilizer application to all agricultural land in the watershed resulted in a predicted reduction in TN load to the Bay of 45%. It was estimated that an approximate 25% reduction in TN loading to the Bay could be achieved by eliminating fertilizer applied to the 7% of subwatersheds contributing the greatest fertilizer‐sourced TN loads to the Bay. These results indicate that management strategies aimed at decreasing loading from a small number of subwatersheds may be effective for reducing TN loads to the Bay, and similar analyses are possible in other watersheds.     

MUNICIPAL POINT SOURCE AND AGRICULTURAL NONPOINT SOURCE CONTRIBUTIONS TO COASTAL EUTROPHICATION1

ABSTRACT: Tidally influenced reaches of several coastal rivers in eastern North Carolina are suffering from very serious water quality problems — massive surface blooms of noxious blue-green algae, major fish kills from anoxic water, epidemics of red sore disease among fish, fresh water intrusion into estuarine waters, and declining commercial and sports fisheries. An intensive investigation of point source and nonpoint source inputs of nutrients was conducted in one of the eutrophic rivers, the Chowan River. Nonpoint source loading dominated the estimated annual flu of nutrients from the river basin. Automated water quality samplers were utilized to record nutrient levels in stormflow and baseflow from several small agricultural watershed in the basin. Levels of nitrate nitrogen and total phosphorus were from five to 40 times greater in these agricultural watersheds than levels in mostly forested watersheds. Existing water quality data in these eutrophic river basins implicate agricultural activities – particularly animal operations and cropland in watersheds with extensive drainage improvements – as the major contributing factor to the water quality problems.     

Reducing Nitrogen Export from the Corn Belt to the Gulf of Mexico: Agricultural Strategies for Remediating Hypoxia

SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed models developed for the Upper Midwest were used to help evaluate the nitrogen‐load reductions likely to be achieved by a variety of agricultural conservation practices in the Upper Mississippi‐Ohio River Basin (UMORB) and to compare these reductions to the 45% nitrogen‐load reduction proposed to remediate hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Our results indicate that nitrogen‐management practices (improved fertilizer management and cover crops) fall short of achieving this goal, even if adopted on all cropland in the region. The goal of a 45% decrease in loads to the GoM can only be achieved through the coupling of nitrogen‐management practices with innovative nitrogen‐removal practices such as tile‐drainage treatment wetlands, drainage–ditch enhancements, stream‐channel restoration, and floodplain reconnection. Combining nitrogen‐management practices with nitrogen‐removal practices can dramatically reduce nutrient export from agricultural landscapes while minimizing impacts to agricultural production. With this approach, it may be possible to meet the 45% nutrient reduction goal while converting less than 1% of cropland in the UMORB to nitrogen‐removal practices. Conservationists, policy makers, and agricultural producers seeking a workable strategy to reduce nitrogen export from the Corn Belt will need to consider a combination of nitrogen‐management practices at the field scale and diverse nitrogen‐removal practices at the landscape scale.     

Response of Algal Biomass to Large‐Scale Nutrient Controls in the Clark Fork River,Montana, United States1

Suplee, Michael W., Vicki Watson, Walter K. Dodds, and Chris Shirley, 2012. Response of Algal Biomass to Large‐Scale Nutrient Controls in the Clark Fork River, Montana, United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 1008‐1021. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00666.x Abstract: Nutrient pollution is an ongoing concern in rivers. Although nutrient targets have been proposed for rivers, little is known about long‐term success of programs to decrease river nutrients and algal biomass. Twelve years of summer data (1998‐2009) collected along 383 km of the Clark Fork River were analyzed to ascertain whether a basin‐wide nutrient reduction program lowered ambient total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, and bottom‐attached algal biomass. Target nutrient and algal biomass levels were established for the program in 1998. Significant declines were observed in TP but not TN along the entire river. Downstream of the city of Missoula, TP declined below a literature‐derived TP saturation breakpoint and met program targets after 2005; TN was below targets since 2007. Algal biomass also declined significantly below Missoula. Trends there likely relate to the city’s wastewater facility upgrades, despite its 20% population increase. Upstream of Missoula, nutrient reductions were less substantial; still, TP and TN declined toward saturation breakpoints, but no significant reductions in algal biomass occurred, and program targets were not met. The largest P‐load reduction to the river was from a basin‐wide phosphate laundry detergent ban set 10 years before, in 1989. We document that nutrient reductions in rivers can be successful in controlling algal biomass, but require achievement of concentrations below saturation and likely close to natural background.     

Soil property control of biogeochemical processes beneath two subtropical stormwater infiltration basins

Substantially different biogeochemical processes affecting nitrogen fate and transport were observed beneath two stormwater infiltration basins in north-central Florida. Differences are related to soil textural properties that deeply link hydroclimatic conditions with soil moisture variations in a humid, subtropical climate. During 2008, shallow groundwater beneath the basin with predominantly clayey soils (median, 41% silt+clay) exhibited decreases in dissolved oxygen from 3.8 to 0.1 mg L and decreases in nitrate nitrogen (NO-N) from 2.7 mg L to <0.016 mg L, followed by manganese and iron reduction, sulfate reduction, and methanogenesis. In contrast, beneath the basin with predominantly sandy soils (median, 2% silt+clay), aerobic conditions persisted from 2007 through 2009 (dissolved oxygen, 5.0-7.8 mg L), resulting in NO-N of 1.3 to 3.3 mg L in shallow groundwater. Enrichment of δN and δO of NO combined with water chemistry data indicates denitrification beneath the clayey basin and relatively conservative NO transport beneath the sandy basin. Soil-extractable NO-N was significantly lower and the copper-containing nitrite reductase gene density was significantly higher beneath the clayey basin. Differences in moisture retention capacity between fine- and coarse-textured soils resulted in median volumetric gas-phase contents of 0.04 beneath the clayey basin and 0.19 beneath the sandy basin, inhibiting surface/subsurface oxygen exchange beneath the clayey basin. Results can inform development of soil amendments to maintain elevated moisture content in shallow soils of stormwater infiltration basins, which can be incorporated in improved best management practices to mitigate NO impacts.     

NUTRIENT CONCENTRATIONS AND YIELDS IN UNDEVELOPED STREAM BASINS OF THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Data from 85 sites across the United States were used to estimate concentrations and yields of selected nutrients in streams draining relatively undeveloped basins. Flow‐weighted concentrations during 1990–1995 were generally low with median basin concentrations of 0.020, 0.087, 0.26, 0.010, and 0.022 milligrams per liter (mg/L) for ammonia as N, nitrate as N, total nitrogen, orthophosphate as P, and total phosphorus, respectively. The flow‐weighted concentration of nitrate exceeded 0.6 mg/L in only three basins. Total nitrogen exceeded 1 mg/L in only four basins, and total phosphorus exceeded 0.1 mg/L in only four basins. The median annual basin yield of ammonia as N, nitrate as N, total nitrogen, orthophosphate as P, and total phosphorus was 8.1, 26, 86, 2.8, and 8.5 kilograms per square kilometer, respectively. Concentrations and yields of nitrate tended to be highest in northeastern and mid‐Atlantic coastal states and correlated well with areas of high atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Concentrations and yields of total nitrogen were highest in the southeastern part of the nation and in parts of the upper Midwest. In the northeast, nitrate was generally the predominant form of nitrogen, and in the southeast and parts of the upper Midwest, organic nitrogen was the dominant form. Concentrations of total phosphorus were generally highest in the Rocky Mountain and Central Plain states.     

Reducing Fertilizer‐Nitrogen Losses from Rowcrop Landscapes: Insights and Implications from a Spatially Explicit Watershed Model

We present conceptual and quantitative models that predict changes in fertilizer‐derived nitrogen delivery from rowcrop landscapes caused by agricultural conservation efforts implemented to reduce nutrient inputs and transport and increase nutrient retention in the landscape. To evaluate the relative importance of changes in the sources, transport, and sinks of fertilizer‐derived nitrogen across a region, we use the spatially explicit SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes watershed model to map the distribution, at the small watershed scale within the Upper Mississippi‐Ohio River Basin (UMORB), of: (1) fertilizer inputs; (2) nutrient attenuation during delivery of those inputs to the UMORB outlet; and (3) nitrogen export from the UMORB outlet. Comparing these spatial distributions suggests that the amount of fertilizer input and degree of nutrient attenuation are both important in determining the extent of nitrogen export. From a management perspective, this means that agricultural conservation efforts to reduce nitrogen export would benefit by: (1) expanding their focus to include activities that restore and enhance nutrient processing in these highly altered landscapes; and (2) targeting specific types of best management practices to watersheds where they will be most valuable. Doing so successfully may result in a shift in current approaches to conservation planning, outreach, and funding.     

Exploring Persistence in Streamflow Forecasting

In this study, the authors explore three persistence approaches in streamflow forecasting motivated by the need for forecasting model skill evaluation. The authors use streamflow observations with 15 min resolution from the year 2008 to 2017 at 140 United States Geological Survey streamflow gauges monitoring the streams and rivers over the State of Iowa. The spatial scale of the basins ranges from about 7 to 37,000 km². The study explores three approaches: simple persistence, gradient persistence, and anomaly persistence. The study shows that persistence forecasts skill has strong dependence on basin scales and weaker but non‐negligible dependence on geometric properties of the river network for a given basin. Among the three approaches explored, anomaly persistence shows highest skill especially for small basins, under about 500 km². The anomaly persistence can serve as a benchmark for model evaluations considering the effect of basin scales and geometric properties of river network of the basin. This study further reiterates that persistence forecasts are hard‐to‐beat methods for larger basin scales at short to medium forecast range.     

Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: a case study for the San Antonio River Basin Summer 2002 storm event

This paper develops a framework for regional scale flood modeling that integrates NEXRAD Level III rainfall, GIS, and a hydrological model (HEC-HMS/RAS). The San Antonio River Basin (about 4000 square miles, 10,000 km2) in Central Texas, USA, is the domain of the study because it is a region subject to frequent occurrences of severe flash flooding. A major flood in the summer of 2002 is chosen as a case to examine the modeling framework. The model consists of a rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS) that converts precipitation excess to overland flow and channel runoff, as well as a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) that models unsteady state flow through the river channel network based on the HEC-HMS-derived hydrographs. HEC-HMS is run on a 4 x 4 km grid in the domain, a resolution consistent with the resolution of NEXRAD rainfall taken from the local river authority. Watershed parameters are calibrated manually to produce a good simulation of discharge at 12 subbasins. With the calibrated discharge, HEC-RAS is capable of producing floodplain polygons that are comparable to the satellite imagery. The modeling framework presented in this study incorporates a portion of the recently developed GIS tool named Map to Map that has been created on a local scale and extends it to a regional scale. The results of this research will benefit future modeling efforts by providing a tool for hydrological forecasts of flooding on a regional scale. While designed for the San Antonio River Basin, this regional scale model may be used as a prototype for model applications in other areas of the country.     

NUTRIENT MASS BALANCE FOR THE ALBEMARLE-PAMLICO DRAINAGE BASIN,NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA, 19901

ABSTRACT: A 1990 nitrogen and phosphorus mass balance calculated for eight National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) basins in the Albemarle-Pamlico Drainage Basin indicated the importance of agricultural nonpoint sources of nitrogen and phosphorus and watershed nitrogen retention and processing capabilities. Basin total nitrogen and phosphorus input estimates were calculated for atmospheric deposition (which averaged 27 percent of total nitrogen inputs and 22 percent of total phosphorus inputs); crop fertilizer (27 and 25 percent); animal-waste (22 and 50 percent, respectively); point sources (3 percent each of total nitrogen and total phosphorus inputs); and biological nitrogen fixation (21 percent of total nitrogen inputs). Highest in-stream nitrogen and phosphorus loads were measured in predominantly agricultural drainage areas. Intermediate loads were observed in mixed agricultural/urban drainage areas; the lowest loads were measured in mixed agricultural/forested drainage areas. The difference between the sum of the nutrient input categories and the sum of the in-stream nutrient loads and crop-harvest nutrient removal was assigned to a residual category for the basin. The residual category averaged 51 percent of total nitrogen inputs and 54 percent of total phosphorus inputs.     

Stream Nitrogen Sources Apportionment and Pollution Control Scheme Development in an Agricultural Watershed in Eastern China

A modeling system that couples a land-use-based export coefficient model, a stream nutrient transport equation, and Bayesian statistics was developed for stream nitrogen source apportionment. It divides a watershed into several sub-catchments, and then considers the major land-use categories as stream nitrogen sources in each sub-catchment. The runoff depth and stream water depth are considered as the major factors influencing delivery of nitrogen from land to downstream stream node within each sub-catchment. The nitrogen sources and delivery processes are lumped into several constant parameters that were calibrated using Bayesian statistics from commonly available stream monitoring and land-use datasets. This modeling system was successfully applied to total nitrogen (TN) pollution control scheme development for the ChangLe River watershed containing six sub-catchments and four land-use categories. The temporal (across months and years) and spatial (across sub-catchments and land-use categories) variability of nonpoint source (NPS) TN export to stream channels and delivery to the watershed outlet were assessed. After adjustment for in-stream TN retention, the time periods and watershed areas with disproportionately high-TN contributions to the stream were identified. Aimed at a target stream TN level of 2 mg L^?1, a quantitative TN pollution control scheme was further developed to determine which sub-catchments, which land-use categories in a sub-catchment, which time periods, and how large of NPS TN export reduction were required. This modeling system provides a powerful tool for stream nitrogen source apportionment and pollution control scheme development at the watershed scale and has only limited data requirements.     

NUTRIENT LOADS TO WISCONSIN LAKES: PART I. NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS EXPORT COEFFICIENTS1

ABSTRACT: Export coefficients (kg/km²/yr) for dissolved ortho-phosphate (OP), total phosphorus (TP), total inorganic nitrogen (TIN), and total nitrogen (TN) were derived for watersheds in Wisconsin using data bases available for 17 basins from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — National Eutrophication Survey, U.S. Geological Survey, and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Three general land use categories, representative of most regions in Wisconsin, were established: forest, mixed, and agricultural. Data for the 17 basins indicated greater exports of OP. TP, TIN, and TN as the percentage of forest decreased and agriculture increased. These region-specific coefficients are compared to the values reported in the literature representing much broader areas of the U.S.     

Evaluation of Rio Grande Management Alternatives Using a Surface‐Water/Ground‐Water Model1

Abstract: Previous investigations observed significant seepage losses from the Rio Grande to the shallow aquifer between Socorro and San Antonio, New Mexico. High‐resolution telescopic modeling was used along a 10‐km reach of the Rio Grande and associated drains and canals to evaluate several management alternatives aimed at improving river conveyance efficiency. Observed data consisted of ground‐water and surface‐water elevations, seepage rates along the Rio Grande and associated canals and drains, and borehole geology. Model calibration was achieved by adjusting hydraulic conductivity and specific storage until the output matched observed data. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the system was responsive to changes in hydrogeologic properties, especially when such alterations increased vertical connectivity between layers. The calibrated model predicted that removal of the low flow conveyance channel, a major channel draining the valley, would not only decrease river seepage by 67%, but also decrease total flow through the reach by 75%. The decreased flow through the reach would result in increased water logging and an average increase in ground‐water elevations of 1.21 meter. Simulations of the system with reduced riparian evapotranspiration rates or a relocated river channel also predicted decreased river seepage, but to a much lesser degree.     

Phosphorus losses from agricultural areas in river basins: effects and uncertainties of targeted mitigation measures

In this paper we show the quantitative and relative importance of phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural areas within European river basins and demonstrate the importance of P pathways, linking agricultural source areas to surface water at different scales. Agricultural P losses are increasingly important for the P concentration in most European rivers, lakes, and estuaries, even though the quantity of P lost from agricultural areas in European catchments varies at least one order of magnitude (<0.2 kg P ha(-1) to >2.1 kg P ha(-1)). We focus on the importance of P for the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive and discuss the benefits, uncertainties, and side effects of the different targeted mitigation measures that can be adopted to combat P losses from agricultural areas in river basins. Experimental evidence of the effects of some of the main targeted mitigation measures hitherto implemented is demonstrated, including: (i) soil tillage changes, (ii) treatment of soils near ditches and streams with iron to reduce P transport from source areas to surface waters, (iii) establishment of buffer zones for retaining P from surface runoff, (iv) restoration of river-floodplain systems to allow natural inundation of riparian areas and deposition of P, and (v) inundation of riparian areas with tile drainage water for P retention. Furthermore, we show how river basin managers can map and analyze the extent and importance of P risk areas, exemplified by four catchments differing in size in Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands. Finally, we discuss the factors and mechanisms that may delay and/or counteract the responses of mitigation measures for combating P losses from agricultural areas when monitored at the catchment scale.     

A WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE SENEGAL RIVER BASIN1

A study was made to determine the impact on water quality due to water resource development in a large river basin in a semi-arid region of West Africa. Mathematical modeling and the examination of case histories were used to project impacts. The impacts associated with changes in water quality were shown to be slight assuming that modern basin and agricultural management practices are adopted. Analytical techniques normally implemented in studies of more highly developed basins are useful for analysis of water quality impacts in relatively undeveloped basins.     

Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data1

Nishat, Bushra and S.M. Mahbubur Rahman, 2009. Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1313‐1327. Abstract: Large‐scale water resources modeling can provide useful insights on future water availability scenarios for downstream nations in anticipation of proposed upstream water resources projects in large international river basins (IRBs). However, model set up can be challenging due to the large amounts of data requirement on both static states (soils, vegetation, topography, drainage network, etc.) and dynamic variables (rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, etc.) over the basin from multiple nations and data collection agencies. Under such circumstances, satellite remote sensing provides a more pragmatic and convenient alternative because of the vantage of space and easy availability from a single data platform. In this paper, we demonstrate a modeling effort to set up a water resources management model, MIKE BASIN, over the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) river basins. The model is set up with the objective of providing Bangladesh, the lowermost riparian nation in the GBM basins, a framework for assessing proposed water diversion scenarios in the upstream transboundary regions of India and deriving quantitative impacts on water availability. Using an array of satellite remote sensing data on topography, vegetation, and rainfall from the transboundary regions, we demonstrate that it is possible to calibrate MIKE BASIN to a satisfactory level and predict streamflow in the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers at the entry points of Bangladesh at relevant scales of water resources management. Simulated runoff for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers follow the trends in the rated discharge for the calibration period. However, monthly flow volume differs from the actual rated flow by (?) 8% to (+) 20% in the Ganges basin, by (?) 15 to (+) 12% in the Brahmaputra basin, and by (?) 15 to (+) 19% in the Meghna basin. Our large‐scale modeling initiative is generic enough for other downstream nations in IRBs to adopt for their own modeling needs.     

The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients1

Schwarz, Gregory E., Richard B. Alexander, Richard A. Smith, and Stephen D. Preston, 2011. The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1151‐1172. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00581.x Abstract: This analysis modifies the parsimonious specification of recently published total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) national‐scale SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes models to allow each model coefficient to vary geographically among three major river basins of the conterminous United States. Regionalization of the national models reduces the standard errors in the prediction of TN and TP loads, expressed as a percentage of the predicted load, by about 6 and 7%. We develop and apply a method for combining national‐scale and regional‐scale information to estimate a hybrid model that imposes cross‐region constraints that limit regional variation in model coefficients, effectively reducing the number of free model parameters as compared to a collection of independent regional models. The hybrid TN and TP regional models have improved model fit relative to the respective national models, reducing the standard error in the prediction of loads, expressed as a percentage of load, by about 5 and 4%. Only 19% of the TN hybrid model coefficients and just 2% of the TP hybrid model coefficients show evidence of substantial regional specificity (more than ±100% deviation from the national model estimate). The hybrid models have much greater precision in the estimated coefficients than do the unconstrained regional models, demonstrating the efficacy of pooling information across regions to improve regional models.