Assessing the Potential Impact of Cane Toads on Australian Snakes

Abstract:   Cane toads ( Bufo marinus ) are large, highly toxic anurans that were introduced into Australia in 1937. Anecdotal reports suggest that the invasion of toads into an area is followed by dramatic declines in the abundance of terrestrial native frog-eating predators, but quantitative studies have been restricted to nonpredator taxa or aquatic predators and have generally reported minimal impacts. Will toads substantially affect Australian snakes? Based on geographic distributions and dietary composition, we identified 49 snake taxa as potentially at risk from toads. The impact of these feral prey also depends on the snakes' ability to survive after ingesting toad toxins. Based on decrements in locomotor (swimming) performance after ingesting toxin, we estimate the LD₅₀ of toad toxins for 10 of the at-risk snake species. Most species exhibited a similar low ability to tolerate toad toxins. Based on head widths relative to sizes of toads, we calculate that 7 of the 10 taxa could easily ingest a fatal dose of toxin in a single meal. The exceptions were two colubrid taxa (keelbacks [  Tropidonophis mairii ] and slatey-grey snakes [  Stegonotus cucullatus ]) with much higher resistance to toad toxins (up to 85-fold) and one elapid (swamp snakes [  Hemiaspis signata ]) with low resistance but a small relative head size and thus low maximum prey size. Overall, our analysis suggests that cane toads threaten populations of approximately 30% of terrestrial Australian snake species.     

Impact of Invasive Cane Toads on Australian Birds

Abstract: The cane toad (Bufo marinus), a large, toxic, American anuran, was introduced to Australia in 1935. Populations of many of Australia's reptiles (snakes, varanid lizards, crocodiles) and carnivorous mammals (dasyurid marsupials) have declined because these predators are killed by the toad's powerful toxins. In contrast to these well‐studied species, little is known about the cane toads impacts on Australian birds. We reviewed published and unpublished data on behavioral interactions between Australian avian predators and cane toads and collated distributional and dietary information to identify avian taxa potentially at risk from cane toad invasion. Cane toads are sympatric with 172 frog‐eating bird species in Australia, and an additional 8 bird species overlap with the predicted future range of the toad. Although many bird species thus are potentially at risk, behavioral observations suggest the risk level is generally low. Despite occasional reports of Australian birds being killed when they ingest cane toads, most birds either ignore toads or survive the predation event. The apparently higher tolerance of Australian birds to toad toxins, compared with Australian reptiles and marsupials, may reflect genetic exchange between Australian birds and Asian populations that encounter other bufonid species regularly and hence have evolved the capacity to recognize or tolerate this toxic prey.     

Targeted gene flow and rapid adaptation in an endangered marsupial

Targeted gene flow is an emerging conservation strategy. It involves translocating individuals with favorable genes to areas where they will have a conservation benefit. The applications for targeted gene flow are wide-ranging but include preadapting native species to the arrival of invasive species. The endangered carnivorous marsupial, the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus), has declined rapidly since the introduction of the cane toad (Rhinella marina), which fatally poisons quolls that attack them. There are, however, a few remaining toad-invaded quoll populations in which the quolls survive because they know not to eat cane toads. It is this toad-smart behavior we hope to promote through targeted gene flow. For targeted gene flow to be feasible, however, toad-smart behavior must have a genetic basis. To assess this, we used a common garden experiment, comparing offspring from toad-exposed and toad-naïve parents raised in identical environments, to determine whether toad-smart behavior is heritable. Offspring from toad-exposed populations were substantially less likely to eat toads than those with toad-naïve parents. Hybrid offspring showed similar responses to quolls with 2 toad-exposed parents, indicating the trait may be dominant. Together, these results suggest a heritable trait and rapid adaptive response in a small number of toad-exposed populations. Although questions remain about outbreeding depression, our results are encouraging for targeted gene flow. It should be possible to introduce toad-smart behavior into soon to be affected quoll populations.     

Forecasting the Risk of Brown Tree Snake Dispersal from Guam: a Mixed Transport-Establishment Model

Abstract:  The brown tree snake ( Boiga irregularis ) is a devastating invader that has ecologically and economically affected Guam and is poised to disperse further. Interdiction efforts are being conducted on Guam and some of the potential receiving sites, but no tools exist for evaluating the potential for snake incursion; thus, the amount of effort that should be invested in protecting particular sites is unknown. We devised a model that predicts the relative risk of establishment of the brown tree snake (BTS) at a given site. To calculate overall risk, we incorporated in the model information on the likelihood of an organism entering the transportation system, avoiding detection, surviving to arrive at another location, and establishing at the receiving end. On the basis of documented rates of snake arrival at receiving sites, the model produced realistic predictions of invasion risk. Model outputs can thus be used to prioritize interdiction efforts to focus on especially vulnerable receiving locations. We provide examples of the utility of the model in evaluating the impacts of changes in transportation parameters. Finally, the model can be used to evaluate the impacts that BTS establishment at an additional site and that creation of a new source of snakes would have. The use of qualitative inputs allows the model to be adapted by substituting data on other invasive species or transportation systems.     

Do predators control prey species abundance? An experimental test with brown treesnakes on Guam

The effect of predators on the abundance of prey species is a topic of ongoing debate in ecology; the effect of snake predators on their prey has been less debated, as there exists a general consensus that snakes do not negatively influence the abundance of their prey. However, this viewpoint has not been adequately tested. We quantified the effect of brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) predation on the abundance and size of lizards on Guam by contrasting lizards in two 1-ha treatment plots of secondary forest from which snakes had been removed and excluded vs. two 1-ha control plots in which snakes were monitored but not removed or excluded. We removed resident snakes from the treatment plots with snake traps and hand capture, and snake immigration into these plots was precluded by electrified snake barriers. Lizards were sampled in all plots quarterly for a year following snake elimination in the treatment plots. Following the completion of this experiment, we used total removal sampling to census lizards on a 100-m2 subsample of each plot. Results of systematic lizard population monitoring before and after snake removal suggest that the abundance of the skink, Carlia ailanpalai, increased substantially and the abundance of two species of gekkonids, Lepidodactylus lugubris and Hemidactylus frenatus, also increased on snake-free plots. No treatment effect was observed for the skink Emoia caeruleocauda. Mean snout-vent length of all lizard species only increased following snake removal in the treatment plots. The general increase in prey density and mean size was unexpected in light of the literature consensus that snakes do not control the abundance of their prey species. Our findings show that, at least where alternate predators are lacking, snakes may indeed affect prey populations.     

Associations of variable coloration with niche breadth and conservation status among Australian reptiles

We evaluate predictions concerning the evolutionary and ecological consequences of color polymorphisms. Previous endeavors have aimed at identifying conditions that promote the evolution and maintenance within populations of alternative variants. But the polymorphic condition may also influence important population processes. We consider the prediction that populations that consist of alternative "ecomorphs" with coadapted gene complexes will utilize more diverse resources and display higher rates of colonization success, population persistence, and range expansions, while being less vulnerable to range contractions and extinctions, compared with monomorphic populations. We perform pairwise comparative analyses based on information for 323 species of Australian lizards and snakes. We find that species with variable color patterns have larger ranges, utilize a greater diversity of habitat types, and are underrepresented among species currently listed as threatened. These results are consistent with the proposition that the co-occurrence of multiple color variants may promote the ecological success of populations and species, but there are also alternative interpretations.     

The behavioral ecology of cannibalism in cane toads (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Bufo marinus</Emphasis>)

Laboratory studies show that predatory cane toads (Bufo marinus) exhibit specialized toe-luring behavior that attracts smaller conspecifics, but field surveys of toad diet rarely record cannibalism. Our data resolve this paradox, showing that cannibalism is common under specific ecological conditions. In the wet–dry tropics of Australia, desiccation risk constrains recently metamorphosed toads to the edges of the natal pond. Juvenile toads large enough to consume their smaller conspecifics switch to a primarily cannibalistic diet (67% of prey biomass in stomachs of larger toads). Cannibalistic attack was triggered by prey movement, and (perhaps as an adaptive response to this threat) small (edible-sized) toads were virtually immobile at night (when cannibals were active). Smaller metamorphs were consumed more frequently than were larger conspecifics. The switch from insectivory to cannibalism reflects the high dry season densities of small conspecifics (in turn, due to desiccation-imposed constraints to dispersal) and the scarcity of alternative (insect) prey during dry weather. Our study pond (102 m in circumference) supported >400 juvenile toads, which consumed many metamorphs over the course of our study. Toads appear to be low-quality food items for other toads; in laboratory trials, juvenile toads that fed only on conspecifics grew less rapidly than those that ate an equivalent mass of insects. This effect was not due to parotoid gland toxins per se. Thus, cane toads switch to intensive cannibalism only when seasonal precipitation regimes increase encounter rates between large and small toads, while simultaneously reducing the availability of alternative prey.     

Larval alarm pheromones as a potential control for invasive cane toads (Bufo marinus) in tropical Australia

Novel approaches to control invasive species are urgently needed. Cane toads (Bufo marinus) are large, highly toxic anurans that are spreading rapidly through tropical Australia. Injured toad larvae produce an alarm pheromone that elicits rapid avoidance by conspecifics but not by frog larvae. Experiments in outdoor ponds show that repeated exposure to the pheromone reduced toad tadpole survival rates (by >50%) and body mass at metamorphosis (by 20%). The alarm pheromone did not induce tadpoles to seek shelter, but accelerated ontogenetic differentiation. Perhaps reflecting mortality of weaker individuals during larval life, growth rates post-metamorphosis were higher in animals emerging from the pheromone exposure treatment than from the control treatment. Nonetheless, body size differentials established at metamorphosis persisted through the first 8 days of post-metamorphic life. We will need substantial additional research before evaluating whether the alarm pheromone provides a way to reduce cane toad recruitment in nature, but our field trials are encouraging in this respect.     

Chemical investigations of defensive steroid sequestration by the Asian snake Rhabdophis tigrinus

Rhabdophis tigrinus is an Asian natricine snake that possesses unusual defensive glands on the dorsal surface of its neck. These nuchal glands typically contain cardiotonic steroidal toxins known as bufadienolides, which are also abundant in the skin of toads. Feeding experiments demonstrated that toads consumed as prey are the ultimate sources of the bufadienolides in nuchal glands of R. tigrinus. Indeed, snakes on a toad-free Japanese island (Kinkasan, Miyagi Prefecture) lack these compounds in their nuchal glands, confirming that these snakes are unable to synthesize defensive bufadienolides. However, when snakes from Kinkasan are fed toads in the laboratory, they accumulate bufadienolides in their nuchal glands, indicating that they have not lost the ability to sequester defensive compounds from prey. In contrast, R. tigrinus from a toad-rich island (Ishima, Tokushima Prefecture) possess large quantities of bufadienolides, reflecting the abundance of toads from which these compounds can be sequestered. Feeding experiments involving gravid R. tigrinus demonstrated that bufadienolides can be provisioned to offspring so that hatchlings are chemically defended before their first toad meal. Maternal provisioning of bufadienolides can take place through two routes: by deposition in yolk and by diffusion in utero, even late in gestation. We applied bufadienolides to the surface of eggs from Kinkasan and found that the embryos are able to take up these compounds into their nuchal glands, demonstrating the feasibility of uptake across the eggshell. Female R. tigrinus provision bufadienolides to their offspring in direct proportion to their own level of chemical defense. By feeding toad-derived bufotoxins to R. tigrinus hatchlings, we determined that the sequestration of these compounds involves at least three types of modification: hydrolytic cleavage of suberylarginine side chains, hydroxylation, and epimerization.     

Does responsiveness to predator scents affect lizard survivorship?

Many prey organisms respond to predator scent by shifting behaviour. These alterations to behaviour are often assumed to increase an animal's chances of evading predators. Responsiveness to predator scents is therefore believed to ultimately increase a prey's chances of surviving encounters with predators. This notion is widely accepted among behavioural ecologists but has rarely been empirically tested. I staged encounters between adult snakes (Demansia psammophis) and pairs of unrestrained adult lizards (Lampropholis guichenoti) that responded strongly to snake predator scent ("responsive") or weakly to snake predator scent ("non-responsive"). Responsive lizards decreased activity and mobility during the staged encounters with snake predators. In turn this shift in behaviour decreased the chances that snakes detected responsive lizards. Since snakes almost always captured lizards that were detected, responding strongly to predator scent decreased a lizard's chances of being captured by predators. This finding is the first experimental demonstration in any terrestrial animal that responsiveness to predator scents can function to increase survival probability.     

International Trade Status and Crisis for Snake Species in China

Abstract:  In recent years, the purchase of snakes for leather, food, and traditional medicine has increased in China, which has greatly reduced certain snake populations. Trade records show that since the 1990s, with respect to some species of snakes, China is changing from a net export country to a net import country. We analyzed data on international trade in snake species, concentrating, in particular, on trade dynamics and species composition. The overall number of snakes exported appears to have decreased in the last 10 years. However, the number of snakes imported during this period has increased steadily. Many species of snakes that are traded in significant numbers are endangered or threatened species. To conserve snakes in China, we recommended that the Chinese government and the international conservation community take the following actions: enhance legislation and list several species in the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) appendices; register all snake farms in China; carry out population and market surveys; monitor the dynamics of trade; encourage biological research; encourage change in food habits; and enhance cooperation between Hong Kong and mainland China.     

Foraging tactics of an ambush predator: the effects of substrate attributes on prey availability and predator feeding success

The foraging sites selected by an ambush forager can strongly affect its feeding opportunities. Foraging cane toads (Rhinella marina) typically select open areas, often under artificial lights that attract insects. We conducted experimental trials in the field, using rubber mats placed under lights, to explore the influence of substrate color and rugosity on prey availability (numbers, sizes, and types of insects) and toad foraging success. A mat's color (black vs. white) and rugosity (smooth vs. rough) did not influence the numbers, sizes, or kinds of insects that were attracted to it, but toads actively preferred to feed on rugose white mats (50% of prey-capture events, vs. a null of 25%). White backgrounds provided better visual contrast of the (mostly dark) insects, and manipulations of prey color in the laboratory showed that contrast was critical in toad foraging success. Insects landing on rugose backgrounds were slower to leave, again increasing capture opportunities for toads. Thus, cane toads actively select backgrounds that maximize prey-capture opportunities, a bias driven by the ways that substrate attributes influence ease of prey detection and capture rather than by absolute prey densities.     

Forecasting the Spread of Invasive Rainbow Smelt in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region of North America

Abstract:  Rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) have invaded many North American lakes, often resulting in the extirpation of native fish populations. Yet, their invasion is incipient and provides the rationale for identifying ecosystems likely to be invaded and where management and prevention efforts should be focused. To predict smelt presence and absence, we constructed a classification-tree model based on habitat data from 354 lakes in the native range for smelt in southern Maine. Maximum lake depth, lake area, and Secchi depth (surrogate measure of lake productivity) were the most important predictors. We then used our model to identify lakes vulnerable to invasion in three regions outside the smelt's native range: northern Maine (52 of 244 lakes in the non-native range), Ontario (4447 of 8110), and Wisconsin (553 of 5164). We further identified a subset of lakes with a strong potential for impact (potential–impact lakes) based on the presence of fish species that are affected by rainbow smelt. Ninety-four percent of vulnerable lakes in the non-native range in Maine are also potential–impact lakes, as are 94% and 58% of Ontario and Wisconsin's vulnerable lakes, respectively. Our modeling approach can be applied to other invaders and regions to identify invasion-prone ecosystems, thus aiding in the management of invasive species and the efficient allocation of invasive species mitigation and prevention resources.     

Indirect effects of large herbivores on snakes in an African savanna

Many large mammal species are declining in African savannas, yet we understand relatively little about how these declines influence other species. Previous studies have shown that the removal of large herbivorous mammals from large-scale, replicated experimental plots results in a dramatic increase in the density of small mammals, an increase that has been attributed to the relaxation of competition between rodents and large herbivores for food resources. To assess whether the removal of large herbivores also influenced a predator of small mammals, we measured the abundance of the locally common olive hissing snake, Psammophis mossambicus, over a 19-mo period in plots with and without large herbivores. Psammophis mossambicus was significantly more abundant in plots where large herbivores were removed and rodent numbers were high. Based on results from raptor surveys and measurements of vegetative cover, differences in snake density do not appear to be driven by differences in rates of predation on snakes. Instead, snakes appear to be responding numerically to greater abundances of small-mammal prey in areas from which large herbivores have been excluded. This is the first empirical demonstration of the indirect effects of large herbivores on snake abundance and presents an interesting example of how the influence of dominant and keystone species can move through a food web.     

Predicting the economic impact of an invasive species on an ecosystem service.

Quantifying the impact of alien invasive species on ecosystem services is an essential step in developing effective practices and policy for invasive species management. Here we develop a stochastic bioeconomic model that enables the economic impact of an invasive pest to be estimated before its arrival, based on relatively poorly specified ecological and economic parameters. We developed the model by using a hypothetical invasion of the varroa bee mite (Varroa destructor) into Australia and the negative flow-on effects that it would have on pollination by reducing honey bee populations, giving rise to a loss of pollination services, reduced crop yields, and additional production costs. If the mite were to continue to be prevented from entering the country over the next 30 years, we estimate that the economic costs avoided would be U.S. $16.4-38.8 million (Aus $21.3-50.5 million) per year. We suggest that current invasion response funding arrangements in Australia, which do not acknowledge these avoided damages, require amendment.     

Intraguild predation in the presence of a shared natural enemy

Intraguild predation (IGP) is a widespread phenomenon in nature, and yet the simplest theoretical models of IGP predict that coexistence of intraguild predator and prey is only possible under restrictive assumptions. Here I examine how a specialist or generalist natural enemy of these species affects their long-term persistence and abundance, as functions of the natural enemy's relative attack severity and fecundity on each species. Notably, I show that failure to include the effects of a higher trophic level in models of IGP can lead to incorrect predictions about the coexistence or exclusion of guild members. I then consider how an interaction between native species and a natural enemy is perturbed by the arrival of an invasive intraguild predator. I outline the conditions under which the native species and/or its natural enemy are threatened by the arrival of the intraguild predator, and also when the natural enemy is beneficial in preventing the initial invasion or eventual dominance of the invader. This work provides new insights on the influence of omnivory on food web stability, and also generates testable hypotheses for predicting the impact of a novel intraguild predator on the recipient community at multiple trophic levels.     

Inter-specific variation in anti-predator behavior in sympatric species of kangaroo rat

Kangaroo rats, Dipodomys, occupy desert habitats with little cover and thus are under high predation risk from diverse predators. The behavior used to assess predation risk or to escape capture is unknown. We therefore compared anti-predator behavior of two sympatric species of kangaroo rat of different sizes, D. merriami and D. spectabilis. We first examined whether kangaroo rats use olfaction as a first line of defense against snake predation and tested the rats for their responses to scent extracted from two species of snake that live sympatrically with the kangaroo rats, the Mojave rattlesnake (Crotalus scutulatus) and the gopher snake (Pitophis melanoleucus). We also tested for species differences in anti-predator behavior through 15-min interactions between the kangaroo rats and free-moving gopher snakes. We found that D. spectabilis actively approached the scent of both rattlesnakes and gopher snakes more than controls of vegetable oil and evaporated solvent (Fig. 1). In contrast, D. merriami did not differentiate snake odors from controls in the experimental arena, but they sniffed the sand where a free-moving snake had passed more than D. spectabilis. Both species successfully avoided predation in encounters with live snakes. Although total numbers of approaches and withdrawals were similar (Fig. 2), D. spectabilis spent significantly more time within striking distance of the snake than D. merriami. D. spectabilis approached the head of the snake in 93% of its approaches and often engaged in nose to snout contact with the snake. If the snake struck, D. spectabilis jumped directly backward to avoid a strike and footdrummed at a safe distance. In contrast, D. merriami oriented to the snake more than D. spectabilis, but approached the head in only 41% of the approaches and rarely engaged in nose-to-snout contact. The snakes struck, hissed and decreased predatory approaches with D. spectabilis but not with D. merriami (Fig. 3). These results show that kangaroo rats can behaviorally influence the risk of being preyed on by snakes. The two species differ, however, in how they react to snakes. The larger D. spectabilis confronts snakes while the smaller D. merriami monitors snakes from a safe distance and avoids them.     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

The roles of climate, phylogenetic relatedness, introduction effort, and reproductive traits in the establishment of non-native reptiles and amphibians

We developed a method to predict the potential of non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna) to establish populations. This method may inform efforts to prevent the introduction of invasive non-native species. We used boosted regression trees to determine whether nine variables influence establishment success of introduced herpetofauna in California and Florida. We used an independent data set to assess model performance. Propagule pressure was the variable most strongly associated with establishment success. Species with short juvenile periods and species with phylogenetically more distant relatives in regional biotas were more likely to establish than species that start breeding later and those that have close relatives. Average climate match (the similarity of climate between native and non-native range) and life form were also important. Frogs and lizards were the taxonomic groups most likely to establish, whereas a much lower proportion of snakes and turtles established. We used results from our best model to compile a spreadsheet-based model for easy use and interpretation. Probability scores obtained from the spreadsheet model were strongly correlated with establishment success as were probabilities predicted for independent data by the boosted regression tree model. However, the error rate for predictions made with independent data was much higher than with cross validation using training data. This difference in predictive power does not preclude use of the model to assess the probability of establishment of herpetofauna because (1) the independent data had no information for two variables (meaning the full predictive capacity of the model could not be realized) and (2) the model structure is consistent with the recent literature on the primary determinants of establishment success for herpetofauna. It may still be difficult to predict the establishment probability of poorly studied taxa, but it is clear that non-native species (especially lizards and frogs) that mature early and come from environments similar to that of the introduction region have the highest probability of establishment.     

Estimating survival rates of uncatchable animals: the myth of high juvenile mortality in reptiles

Survival rates of juvenile reptiles are critical population parameters but are difficult to obtain through mark-recapture programs because these small, secretive animals are rarely caught. This scarcity has encouraged speculation that survival rates of juveniles are very low, and we test this prediction by estimating juvenile survival rates indirectly. A simple mathematical model calculates the annual juvenile survival rate needed to maintain a stable population size, using published data on adult survival rates, reproductive output, and ages at maturity in 109 reptile populations encompassing 57 species. Counter to prediction, estimated juvenile survival rates were relatively high (on average, only about 13% less than those of conspecific adults) and highly correlated with adult survival rates. Overall, survival rates during both juvenile and adult life were higher in turtles than in snakes, and higher in snakes than in lizards. As predicted from life history theory, rates of juvenile survival were higher in species that produce large offspring, and higher in viviparous squamates than in oviparous species. Our analyses challenge the widely held belief that juvenile reptiles have low rates of annual survival and suggest instead that sampling problems and the elusive biology of juvenile reptiles have misled researchers in this respect.