Quantifying Rarity, Losses, and Risks for Native Fishes of the Lower Colorado River Basin: Implications for Conservation Listing

Abstract:  We examined spatial distributions of fishes native to the lower basin of the Colorado River (25 species) at three scales to determine percent decline from historical distributions based on a regional biodiversity database. We cumulated records from 1843 to 1980 to develop a "historical distribution" for each species and used those occurrences recorded from 1981 to 1998 as "modern" records. We then contrasted historical and modern distributions to (1) quantify losses in spatial distribution; (2) determine how strongly these losses and fragmentation patterns corresponded to the perceived risk of extinction of each species, as represented by its status under the IUCN Red List of Endangered Species; and (3) update extinction risk rankings for 15 fishes endemic to the lower Colorado Basin according to the IUCN criteria. Based on presence and absence data, fish fauna of the lower Colorado Basin have suffered massive distributional losses. On average, ranges of extant species have diminished more than 45% relative to their historical distribution, and 35% of species have lost 50% or more of their occurrences. We provide nine new IUCN rankings and six updates to reflect more accurately the heightened imperilment of these species. Based on our new rankings, 7 of the 15 lower Colorado Basin endemics are critically endangered, 1 is endangered, 2 are vulnerable, and 1 is already extinct. We categorize the remaining 2 endemics as lower risk. This work demonstrates the utility of matching quantitative spatial metrics such as the scale-area slope statistic to extinction risk criteria for species whose persistence is strongly influenced by spatial distribution.     

Combined effects of life-history traits and human impact on extinction risk of freshwater megafauna

Megafauna species are intrinsically vulnerable to human impact. Freshwater megafauna (i.e., freshwater animals ≥30 kg, including fishes, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians) are subject to intensive and increasing threats. Thirty-four species are listed as critically endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Red List of Threatened Species, the assessments for which are an important basis for conservation actions but remain incomplete for 49 (24%) freshwater megafauna species. Consequently, the window of opportunity for protecting these species could be missed. Identifying the factors that predispose freshwater megafauna to extinction can help predict their extinction risk and facilitate more effective and proactive conservation actions. Thus, we collated 8 life-history traits for 206 freshwater megafauna species. We used generalized linear mixed models to examine the relationships between extinction risk based on the IUCN Red List categories and the combined effect of multiple traits, as well as the effect of human impact on these relationships for 157 classified species. The most parsimonious model included human impact and traits related to species’ recovery potential including life span, age at maturity, and fecundity. Applying the most parsimonious model to 49 unclassified species predicted that 17 of them are threatened. Accounting for model predictions together with IUCN Red List assessments, 50% of all freshwater megafauna species are considered threatened. The Amazon and Yangtze basins emerged as global diversity hotspots of threatened freshwater megafauna, in addition to existing hotspots, including the Ganges-Brahmaputra and Mekong basins and the Caspian Sea region. Assessment and monitoring of those species predicted to be threatened are needed, especially in the Amazon and Yangtze basins. Investigation of life-history traits and trends in population and distribution, regulation of overexploitation, maintaining river connectivity, implementing protected areas focusing on freshwater ecosystems, and integrated basin management are required to protect threatened freshwater megafauna in diversity hotspots.     

Ecological Determinants of Distribution Decline and Risk of Extinction in Moths

Abstract:  For successful conservation of species it is important to identify traits that predispose species to the risk of extinction. By identifying such traits conservation efforts can be directed toward species that are most at risk of becoming threatened. We used data derived from the literature to determine ecological traits that affect distribution, distribution change, and the risk of extinction in Finnish noctuid moths (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae). The ecological traits we examined included body size, larval specificity, length of the flight period, and overwintering stage. In addition, in monophagous species we examined the effects of resource distribution. Larval specificity, length of the flight period, and the overwintering stage each had an independent effect on the risk of extinction when the effects of other traits were controlled by entering all traits into the same regression model. Not a single trait predicted the risk of extinction when analysis was conducted without controlling for the other traits. This discrepancy among the results suggests that a single trait may not be enough to allow prediction of the risk of extinction. Instead, it seems that for successful, predictive conservation science data on several ecological characteristics are needed.     

An occupancy‐based quantification of the highly imperiled status of desert fishes of the southwestern United States

Desert fishes are some of the most imperiled vertebrates worldwide due to their low economic worth and because they compete with humans for water. An ecological complex of fishes, 2 suckers (Catostomus latipinnis, Catostomus discobolus) and a chub (Gila robusta) (collectively managed as the so‐called three species) are endemic to the U.S. Colorado River Basin, are affected by multiple stressors, and have allegedly declined dramatically. We built a series of occupancy models to determine relationships between trends in occupancy, local extinction, and local colonization rates, identify potential limiting factors, and evaluate the suitability of managing the 3 species collectively. For a historical period (1889–2011), top performing models (AICc) included a positive time trend in local extinction probability and a negative trend in local colonization probability. As flood frequency decreased post‐development local extinction probability increased. By the end of the time series, 47% (95% CI 34‐61) and 15% (95% CI 6‐33) of sites remained occupied by the suckers and the chub, respectively, and models with the 2 species of sucker as one group and the chub as the other performed best. For a contemporary period (2001?2011), top performing (based on AIC_c) models included peak annual discharge. As peak discharge increased, local extinction probability decreased and local colonization probability increased. For the contemporary period, results of models that split all 3 species into separate groups were similar to results of models that combined the 2 suckers but not the chub. Collectively, these results confirmed that declines in these fishes were strongly associated with water development and that relative to their historic distribution all 3 species have declined dramatically. Further, the chub was distinct in that it declined the most dramatically and therefore may need to be managed separately. Our modeling approach may be useful in other situations in which targeted data are sparse and conservation status and best management approach for multiple species are uncertain.     

Trait space of rare plants in a fire‐dependent ecosystem

The causes of species rarity are of critical concern because of the high extinction risk associated with rarity. Studies examining individual rare species have limited generality, whereas trait‐based approaches offer a means to identify functional causes of rarity that can be applied to communities with disparate species pools. Differences in functional traits between rare and common species may be indicative of the functional causes of species rarity and may therefore be useful in crafting species conservation strategies. However, there is a conspicuous lack of studies comparing the functional traits of rare species and co‐occurring common species. We measured 18 important functional traits for 19 rare and 134 common understory plant species from North Carolina's Sandhills region and compared their trait distributions to determine whether there are significant functional differences that may explain species rarity. Flowering, fire, and tissue‐chemistry traits differed significantly between rare and common, co‐occurring species. Differences in specific traits suggest that fire suppression has driven rarity in this system and that changes to the timing and severity of prescribed fire may improve conservation success. Our method provides a useful tool to prioritize conservation efforts in other systems based on the likelihood that rare species are functionally capable of persisting.     

Regional Decline of an Iconic Amphibian Associated with Elevation,Land‐Use Change,and Invasive Species

Abstract: Ecological theory predicts that species with restricted geographic ranges will have the highest probability of extinction, but species with extensive distributions and high population densities can also exhibit widespread population losses. In the western United States populations of northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens)—historically one of the most widespread frogs in North America—have declined dramatically in abundance and geographic distribution. To assess the status of leopard frogs in Colorado and evaluate causes of decline, we coupled statewide surveys of 196 historically occupied sites with intensive sampling of 274 wetlands stratified by land use. We used an information‐theoretic approach to evaluate the contributions of factors at multiple spatial extents in explaining the contemporary distribution of leopard frogs. Our results indicate leopard frogs have declined in Colorado, but this decline was regionally variable. The lowest proportion of occupied wetlands occurred in eastern Colorado (2–28%), coincident with urban development and colonization by non‐native bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus). Variables at several spatial extents explained observed leopard frog distributional patterns. In low‐elevation wetlands introduced fishes, bullfrogs, and urbanization or suburbanization associated negatively with leopard frog occurrence, whereas wetland area was positively associated with occurrence. Leopard frogs were more abundant and widespread west of the Continental Divide, where urban development and bullfrog abundance were low. Although the pathogenic chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was not selected in our best‐supported models, the nearly complete extirpation of leopard frogs from montane wetlands could reflect the individual or interactive effects of Bd and climate patterns. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple, competing hypotheses to explain species declines, particularly when implicated factors operate at different spatial extents.     

Generation lengths of the world's birds and their implications for extinction risk

Birds have been comprehensively assessed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List more times than any other taxonomic group. However, to date, generation lengths have not been systematically estimated to scale population trends when undertaking assessments, as required by the criteria of the IUCN Red List. We compiled information from major databases of published life-history and trait data for all birds and imputed missing life-history data as a function of species traits with generalized linear mixed models. Generation lengths were derived for all species, based on our modeled values of age at first breeding, maximum longevity, and annual adult survival. The resulting generation lengths varied from 1.42 to 27.87 years (median 2.99). Most species (61%) had generation lengths <3.33 years, meaning that the period of 3 generations—over which population declines are assessed under criterion A—was <10 years, which is the value used for IUCN Red List assessments of species with short generation times. For these species, our trait-informed estimates of generation length suggested that 10 years is a robust precautionary value for threat assessment. In other cases, however, for whole families, genera, or individual species, generation length had a substantial impact on their estimated extinction risk, resulting in higher extinction risk in long-lived species than in short-lived species. Although our approach effectively addressed data gaps, generation lengths for some species may have been underestimated due to a paucity of life-history data. Overall, our results will strengthen future extinction-risk assessments and augment key databases of avian life-history and trait data.     

Trait‐based prediction of extinction risk of small‐bodied freshwater fishes

Small body size is generally correlated with r‐selected life‐history traits, including early maturation, short‐generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small‐bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray‐Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi‐Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty‐three ecological and life‐history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size—among small‐bodied species—was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k‐folds cross‐validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small‐bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.     

Scale Dependency of Rarity, Extinction Risk, and Conservation Priority

Abstract:   In developing red data books of threatened species, the World Conservation Union uses measures of rarity, rates of decline, and population fragmentation to categorize species according to their risk of extinction. However, most quantitative measures of these three concepts are sensitive to the scale at which they are made. In particular, definitions of rarity based on an area-of-occupancy threshold can nearly always be met if area of occupancy is calculated from a sufficiently fine-scale (high-resolution) grid. Recommendations for dealing with scale dependency include (1) choosing a standard scale of measurement, (2) using multiple scales of measurement, and (3) developing indices that combine information from multiple scales. As an example of the second and third approach, the construction of a species' scale-area curve represents a unifying method for quantifying all three indicators of extinction risk—rarity, rate of decline, and population fragmentation—as functions of area of occupancy and measurement scale. A multiscale analysis is also of practical importance because measurements made at different scales are relevant to different extinction processes. Coarse-scale measures of rarity are most appropriate when threat is assessed on the basis of spatially autocorrelated events of a large extent, such as global climate change, whereas fine-scale measures may best predict extinction risk due to local processes such as demographic stochasticity. We illustrate our arguments with a case study of the British distributions of two related plant species that show a 200-fold reversal in their relative rarity when measured at different scales.     

Natural flow regimes, nonnative fishes, and native fish persistence in arid-land river systems

Escalating demands for water have led to substantial modifications of river systems in arid regions, which coupled with the widespread invasion of nonnative organisms, have increased the vulnerability of native aquatic species to extirpation. Whereas a number of studies have evaluated the role of modified flow regimes and nonnative species on native aquatic assemblages, few have been conducted where the compounding effects of modified flow regimes and established nonnatives do not confound interpretations, particularly at spatial and temporal scales that are relevant to conservation of species at a range-wide level. By evaluating a 19-year data set across six sites in the relatively unaltered upper Gila River basin, New Mexico, USA, we tested how natural flow regimes and presence of nonnative species affected long-term stability of native fish assemblages. Overall, we found that native fish density was greatest during a wet period at the beginning of our study and declined during a dry period near the end of the study. Nonnative fishes, particularly predators, generally responded in opposite directions to these climatic cycles. Our data suggested that chronic presence of nonnative fishes, coupled with naturally low flows reduced abundance of individual species and compromised persistence of native fish assemblages. We also found that a natural flow regime alone was unlikely to ensure persistence of native fish assemblages. Rather, active management that maintains natural flow regimes while concurrently suppressing or excluding nonnative fishes from remaining native fish strongholds is critical to conservation of native fish assemblages in a system, such as the upper Gila River drainage, with comparatively little anthropogenic modification.     

Prediction of extinction in plants: interaction of extrinsic threats and life history traits

The global extinction of species proceeds through the erosion of local populations. Using a 60-year time series of annual sighting records of plant species, we studied the correlates of local extinction risk associated with a risk of species extinction in the Park Grass Experiment where plants received long-term exposure to nutrient enrichment, soil acidification, and reductions in habitat size. We used multivariate linear models to assess how extrinsic threats and life history traits influence extinction risk. We investigated effects of four extrinsic threats (nitrogen enrichment, productivity, acidification, and plot size) as well as 11 life history traits (month of earliest flowering, flowering duration, stress tolerance, ruderalness [plant species' ability to cope with habitat disturbance], plant height, diaspore mass, seed bank, life form, dispersal mode, apomixis [the ability for a species to reproduce asexuall through seeds], and mating system). Extinction risk was not influenced by plant family. All of the 11 life history traits except life form and all threat variables influenced extinction risk but always via interactions which typically involved one threat variable and one life history trait. We detected comparatively few significant interactions between life history traits, and the interacting traits compensated for each other. These results suggest that simple predictions about extinction risk based on species' traits alone will often fail. In contrast, understanding the interactions between extrinsic threats and life history traits will allow us to make more accurate predictions of extinctions.     

Range-restricted, specialist Bornean butterflies are less likely to recover from ENSO-induced disturbance

The forest fires induced by the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1997-1998 resulted in the temporary extirpation of more than 100 lowland butterfly species at a forest site in Borneo. Species with more restricted ranges were less likely to recover over the following four years. Matched-pair analyses revealed that species with lower initial abundances, restricted geographic ranges, and more specialized larvae were less likely to return. Specialization differed predictably between the (more generalist) wide-range and (more specialized) restricted-range species in our data set, and both geographic range and level of specialization were important in multivariate models. These are the first observations directly linking extent of occurrence, ecological specialization, and observed recovery following local extirpation. If recovery time exceeds the frequency of disturbance, local extirpation can lead to local extinction. Given that ENSO-induced disturbances are increasing in frequency, in severity, and in geographic scale, these results suggest that specialist species with restricted geographic ranges could be at particularly high risk of global extinction.     

Two sides of the same coin? Rare and pest plants native to the United States and Canada

Plant biodiversity is at risk, with as many as 10% of native species in the United States being threatened with extinction. Habitat loss has led a growing number of plant species to become rare or threatened, while the introduction or expansion of pest species has led some habitats to be dominated by relatively few, mostly nonindigenous, species. As humans continue to alter many landscapes and vegetation types, understanding how biological traits determine the location of species along a spectrum from vulnerability to pest status is critical to designing risk assessment protocols, setting conservation priorities, and developing monitoring programs. We used boosted regression trees to predict rarity (based on The Nature Conservancy global rankings) and pest status (defined as legal pest status) from data on traits for the native vascular flora of the United States and Canada including Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands (n approximately = 15,000). Categories were moderately to highly predictable (AUCpest = 0.87 on 25% holdout test set, AUCrarity = 0.80 on 25% holdout test set). Key predictors were chromosome number, ploidy, seed mass, and a suite of traits suggestive of specialist vs. generalist adaptations (e.g., facultative wetland habitat association and phenotypic variability in growth form and life history). Specifically, pests were associated with high chromosome numbers, polyploidy, and seed masses ranging from 0.1 to 100 mg, whereas rare species were associated with low chromosome numbers, low ploidy, and large (>1000 mg) seed masses. In addition, pest species were disproportionately likely to be facultatively associated with wetlands, and variable in growth form and life history, whereas rare species exhibited an opposite pattern. These results suggest that rare and pest species contrast along trait axes related to dispersal and performance in disturbed or novel habitats.     

Invasion versus Isolation: Trade-Offs in Managing Native Salmonids with Barriers to Upstream Movement

Abstract: Conservation biologists often face the trade‐off that increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes to reduce extinction risk of native species can foster invasion by non‐native species that enter via the corridors created, which can then increase extinction risk. This dilemma is acute for stream fishes, especially native salmonids, because their populations are frequently relegated to fragments of headwater habitat threatened by invasion from downstream by 3 cosmopolitan non‐native salmonids. Managers often block these upstream invasions with movement barriers, but isolation of native salmonids in small headwater streams can increase the threat of local extinction. We propose a conceptual framework to address this worldwide problem that focuses on 4 main questions. First, are populations of conservation value present (considering evolutionary legacies, ecological functions, and socioeconomic benefits as distinct values)? Second, are populations vulnerable to invasion and displacement by non‐native salmonids? Third, would these populations be threatened with local extinction if isolated with barriers? And, fourth, how should management be prioritized among multiple populations? We also developed a conceptual model of the joint trade‐off of invasion and isolation threats that considers the opportunities for managers to make strategic decisions. We illustrated use of this framework in an analysis of the invasion‐isolation trade‐off for native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) in 2 contrasting basins in western North America where invasion and isolation are either present and strong or farther away and apparently weak. These cases demonstrate that decisions to install or remove barriers to conserve native salmonids are often complex and depend on conservation values, environmental context (which influences the threat of invasion and isolation), and additional socioeconomic factors. Explicit analysis with tools such as those we propose can help managers make sound decisions in such complex circumstances.     

Public perception of river fish biodiversity in four European countries

Public support for biodiversity conservation is shaped by people's values and their knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes toward the environment. We conducted the first multinational representative survey of the general public's perceptions of river fish biodiversity in France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden. For the online survey, 1000 respondents per country were randomly selected from large panels following country-specific quotas set on age, gender, and educational level. Questions covered people's level of knowledge, beliefs, values, and attitudes toward river fish, environmental threats, and conservation measures. We found that the public had limited knowledge of freshwater fishes. Two non-native species, rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), were widely perceived as native, whereas native Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) was mostly classified as native in Scandinavia and largely as non-native in central Europe. These results suggest an extinction of experience paralleling the extirpation or decline of salmon stocks in countries such as Germany and France. Respondents thought pollution was the dominant threat to riverine fish biodiversity. In reality, habitat loss, dams, and the spread of non-native fishes are equally important. Despite limited biological knowledge, respondents from all countries held an overwhelmingly proecological worldview, supported conservation stocking, and appreciated native fishes, although only a minority interacted with them directly. Differences among the 4 countries related to several conservation issues. For example, threats to biodiversity stemming from aquaculture were perceived as more prevalent in Norway compared with the other 3 countries. Promoting fish conservation based on charismatic species and use values of fishes may work well in countries with a strong economic and cultural link to the freshwater environment, such as Norway. In countries where people rather abstractly care for nature, focusing conservation messaging on broader ecosystem traits and non-use values of fishes is likely to win more support.     

Latent Extinction and Invasion Risk of Crayfishes in the Southeastern United States

Abstract: Crayfishes are both a highly imperiled invertebrate group as well as one that has produced many invasive species, which have negatively affected freshwater ecosystems throughout the world. We performed a trait analysis for 77 crayfishes from the southeastern United States in an attempt to understand which biological and ecological traits make these species prone to imperilment or invasion, and to predict which species may face extinction or become invasive in the future. We evaluated biological and ecological traits with principal coordinate analysis and classification trees. Invasive and imperiled crayfishes occupied different positions in multivariate trait space, although crayfishes invasive at different scales (extraregional vs. extralimital) were also distinct. Extraregional crayfishes (large, high fecundity, habitat generalists) were most distinct from imperiled crayfishes (small, low fecundity, habitat specialists), thus supporting the “two sides of the same coin” hypothesis. Correct classification rates for assignment of crayfishes as invasive or imperiled were high (70–80%), even when excluding the highly predictive but potentially confounding trait of range size (75–90%). We identified a number of species that, although not currently listed as imperiled or found outside their native range, possess many of the life‐history and ecological traits characteristic of currently invasive or imperiled taxa. Such species exhibit a high latent risk of extinction or invasion and consequently should be the focus of proactive conservation or management strategies. Our results illustrate the utility of trait‐based approaches for taxonomic groups such as invertebrates, for which detailed species‐specific data are rare and conservation resources are chronically limited.     

Colonization and extinction in dynamic habitats: an occupancy approach for a Great Plains stream fish assemblage

Despite the importance of habitat in determining species distribution and persistence, habitat dynamics are rarely modeled in studies of metapopulations. We used an integrated habitat-occupancy model to simultaneously quantify habitat change, site fidelity, and local colonization and extinction rates for larvae of a suite of Great Plains stream fishes in the Arikaree River, eastern Colorado, USA, across three years. Sites were located along a gradient of flow intermittency and groundwater connectivity. Hydrology varied across years: the first and third being relatively wet and the second dry. Despite hydrologic variation, our results indicated that site suitability was random from one year to the next. Occupancy probabilities were also independent of previous habitat and occupancy state for most species, indicating little site fidelity. Climate and groundwater connectivity were important drivers of local extinction and colonization, but the importance of groundwater differed between periods. Across species, site extinction probabilities were highest during the transition from wet to dry conditions (range: 0.52-0.98), and the effect of groundwater was apparent with higher extinction probabilities for sites not fed by groundwater. Colonization probabilities during this period were relatively low for both previously dry sites (range: 0.02-0.38) and previously wet sites (range: 0.02-0.43). In contrast, no sites dried or remained dry during the transition from dry to wet conditions, yielding lower but still substantial extinction probabilities (range: 0.16-0.63) and higher colonization probabilities (range: 0.06-0.86), with little difference among sites with and without groundwater. This approach of jointly modeling both habitat change and species occupancy will likely be useful to incorporate effects of dynamic habitat on metapopulation processes and to better inform appropriate conservation actions.     

Life-history correlates of extinction risk and recovery potential

Extinction risk is inversely associated with maximum per capita population growth rate (r(max)). However, this parameter is not known for most threatened species, underscoring the value in identifying correlates of r(max) that, in the absence of demographic data, would indirectly allow one to identify species and populations at elevated risk of extinction and their associated recovery potential. We undertook a comparative life-history analysis of 199 species from three taxonomic classes: Chondrichthyes (e.g., sharks; n = 82), Actinopterygii (teleost or bony fishes; n = 47), and Mammalia (n = 70, including 16 marine species). Median r(max) was highest for (and similar between) terrestrial mammals (0.71) and teleosts (0.43), significantly lower among chondrichthyans (0.26), and lower still in marine mammals (0.07). Age at maturity was the primary (and negative) correlate of r(max). In contrast, although body size was negatively correlated with r(max) in chondrichthyans and mammals, evidence of an association in teleosts was equivocal, and fecundity was not related to r(max) in fishes, despite recurring assertions to the contrary. Our analyses suggest that age at maturity can serve as a universal predictor of extinction risk in fishes and mammals when r(max) itself is unknown. Moreover, in contrast to what is generally expected, the recovery potential of teleost fishes does not differ from that of terrestrial mammals. Our findings are supportive of the application of extinction-risk criteria that are based on generation time and that are independent of taxonomic affinity.     

Quantitative Determination of Rarity of Freshwater Fishes and Implications for Imperiled‐Species Designations

Abstract: Conserving rare species and protecting biodiversity and ecosystem functioning depends on sound information on the nature of rarity. Rarity is multidimensional and has a variety of definitions, which presents the need for a quantitative classification scheme with which to categorize species as rare or common. We constructed such a classification for North American freshwater fishes to better describe rarity in fishes and provide researchers and managers with a tool to streamline conservation efforts. We used data on range extents, habitat specificities, and local population sizes of North American freshwater fishes and a variety of quantitative methods and statistical decision criteria, including quantile regression and a cost‐function algorithm to determine thresholds for categorizing a species as rare or common. Species fell into eight groups that conform to an established framework for rarity. Fishes listed by the American Fisheries Society (AFS) as endangered, threatened, or vulnerable were most often rare because their local population sizes were low, ranges were small, and they had specific habitat needs, in that order, whereas unlisted species were most often considered common on the basis of these three factors. Species with large ranges generally had few specific habitat needs, whereas those with small ranges tended to have narrow habitat specificities. We identified 30 species not designated as imperiled by AFS that were rare along all dimensions of rarity and may warrant further study or protection, and we found three designated species that were common along all dimensions and may require a review of their imperilment status. Our approach could be applied to other taxa to aid conservation decisions and serve as a useful tool for future revisions of listings of fish species.     

Causes of Extirpations in the Wadden Sea, an Estuarine Area in The Netherlands

Abstract: The various causes of extirpation of marine and estuarine species were investigated for the Dutch Wadden Sea to gain an impression of their relative importance. I obtained data from geological, archaeological, historical, and biological publications. At least 10 species of algae, 10 invertebrates, 13 fishes, 5 birds, and 4 marine mammals became extinct during the past 2000 years. Habitat destruction played a part in at least 26 cases, overexploitation in at least 17, and pollution in at least 3. Causes of the disappearance of two species are unknown. Introduction of exotic marine species was not involved in any of the extirpations. I compared this pattern of extinction to that of worldwide extinctions of marine and estuarine species, which have been attributed to overexploitation, habitat destruction, and in two cases to the introduction of terrestrial predators to the breeding habitats of marine birds. The results imply that conservation of marine species should address overexploitation and habitat destruction as the main causes of extinction.