THE EFFECTWENESS OF PRICING AS A STAND-ALONE WATER CONSERVATION PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: Economic theory clearly indicates that the use of increasing rate structures will reduce the demand for water and produce monetary incentives for consumers to conserve. One problem with estimating the effectiveness of using rate structures as a conservation program is that they are usually accompanied by other conservation efforts. Thus, it is difficult to determine the effectiveness of any one conservation component. This paper examines the effectiveness of increasing rate structures in a situation where no other conservation program was introduced. The paper uses customer data from the Spalding County (Georgia) Water Authority where an increasing rate structure replaced a descending rate structure in January 1991. Since the imposition of the increasing rate structure, the number of customers has increased 21 percent while total water demand has gone up only 15 percent and per customer water use has declined 5 percent. The daily water use per connection has declined from 243 gallons in 1990 to 231 in 1993, and monthly use has gone from 7,381 gallons to 7,028 per connection over the same period. Statistical tests indicate that water consumption during the two periods was significantly different while weather factors were not.     

Household use of and satisfaction with alternative water sources in Victoria Australia

Climate change is increasing the variability of rainfall, and thus the availability of water supplies in many areas of the world. These impacts are already being felt in the state of Victoria, Australia where a 12 year drought period was recently experienced. Restrictions to water use have been implemented, as one component of a broad policy approach to manage the drought. While anecdotal evidence suggests that the substitution of centralised water supplies is occurring, this has not been proven empirically. This paper reports results from a survey of households in Victoria regarding their use of alternative water sources. The study found that substitution is occurring. Garden watering is the purpose which has the highest rate of alternative water source use. In total 41.6% of respondents always, and 33.2% sometimes use an alternative water source for garden watering. The most commonly used alternative source of water for garden watering is water previously used in the laundry (30.7%). The alternative source of water used was found to vary depending on the purpose of the water use. High levels of satisfaction were found for all alternative water sources used. Several barriers were found to the use of alternative water sources, the main of which were: inflexibility of existing infrastructure, cost, policy, and housing status. The results have implications for water retailers, policy makers and governments in locations facing water shortage.     

A Tool for Modeling the Winter Oxygen Depletion Rate in Arctic Lakes1

Abstract: Many arctic lakes freeze completely in winter. The few that retain unfrozen water for the entire winter period serve as overwintering fish habitat. In addition to serving as fish habitat, water in arctic lakes is needed for industrial and domestic use. Permits for water extraction seek to maximize water use without impacting dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and endangering fish habitat. The relationship between lake volume, winter DO budget, and extraction of water through pumping has historically not been well understood. A management model that could estimate end‐of‐winter DO would improve our understanding of the potential impacts of different management strategies. Using under‐ice DO measurements (November to April) taken from two natural lakes and one flooded gravel mine on the North Slope of Alaska, a physically based model was developed to predict end‐of‐winter DO concentration, water‐column DO profiles, and winter oxygen depletion rate in arctic lakes during periods of ice cover. Comparisons between the measured and model‐predicted oxygen profiles in the three study lakes suggest that the depth‐based DO modeling tool presented herein can be used to adequately predict the amount of DO available in arctic lakes throughout winter.     

A COMPARISON OF MULTIVARIATE AND TREND FORECASTING ESTIMATES WITH ACTUAL WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a multivariate water forecasting procedure that is neither complicated, time-consuming nor expensive to operationalize. The forecasting procedure has been used to estimate the water demand for a proposed subdivision in Barrie, Ontario. Reliability is checked by applying the procedure to two existing subdivisions in Barrie for which metered consumption is available. For comparison, a trend forecasting procedure is also applied to the proposed subdivision and the existing subdivisions. Both the multivariate and trend forecasting procedures provide encouragingly accurate results when compared to actual use. While the multivariate procedure allows more precision, both procedures should be useful in forecasting water demand for smaller municipalities.     

Modelling the response of surface water quality to the urbanization in Xi'an, China

The study investigated the response of surface water quality to urbanization in Xi'an, China. We qualitatively described the change in urban land use from 1996 to 2003, analyzed the status of the surface water environment, and constructed a model of urban expansion to simulate the water environment's response to urbanization. Our results revealed that patterns of land use changed dramatically, the rate of economic growth exceeded that of urbanization during the study period, and increasing urban land use was correlated with fluctuations in water quality. The simulated results suggested that urbanization had reached the environmental carrying capacity based on the average land utility and the marginal costs of pollution.     

Assessment of Economic and Water Quality Impacts of Land Use Change Using a Simple Bioeconomic Model

The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented.     

EFFECTS OF RATE STRUCTURE KNOWLEDGE ON HOUSEHOLD WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: Socioeconomic determinants of individual household water use were estimated using regressions of these characteristics with actual household water use for winter and summer. Results were disaggregated between those consumers who were aware of an increasing block rate price structure and those who were not. Most of the informed group members believed that this price structure did result in significant reductions in water use. Nevertheless, overall water use was greater for the informed group. The determinants of water use were found to differ between informed and uninformed users as well as between winter and summer. The uninformed users were influenced by a larger set of variables in each season than the informed group. In winter, the informed group members with swimming pools and/or arid landscaping used less water than their uninformed counterparts. Summer water use increased with length of tenancy in home for the uninformed group but not for informed, while increasing with ownership for informed consumers.     

Sustainability of ground water quality considering land use changes and public health risks

One of the major environmental issues of concern to policy-makers is the increased vulnerability of ground water quality (GWQ). Another issue of equal interest is the sustainability of natural resources for future generations. To understand the sustainability of the natural resources such as water in general, one needs to understand the impact of future land use changes on the natural resources. This work proposes a methodology to address sustainability of GWQ considering land use changes, aquifer vulnerability to multiple contaminants, and public health risks. The methodology was demonstrated for the Sumas-Blaine aquifer in Washington State. The land transformation model predicted that nearly 60 percent of the land use practices would change in the Sumas-Blaine Aquifer by the year 2015. The accuracy of the LTM model predictions increased to greater levels as the spatial resolution was decreased. Aquifer vulnerability analysis was performed for major contaminants using the binary logistic regression (LR) method. The LR model, along with the predicted future land use, was used to estimate the future GWQ using two indices-carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic ground water qualities. Sustainability of GWQ was then analyzed using the concept of 'strong' sustainability. The sustainability map of GWQ showed improvements in many areas where urbanization is expected to occur. The positive impact of urbanization on GWQ is an indication of the extensive damage caused by existing agricultural activities in the study area.     

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED USING SATELLITE IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: This paper demonstrates how satellite image data [e.g., from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM)], in conjunction with an urban growth model and simple runoff calculations, can be used to estimate future surface runoff and, by implication, water quality within a watershed. To illustrate the method, predictions of land use change and surface runoff are shown for Spring Creek Watershed, a medium sized urbanizing watershed in Central Pennsylvania. Land cover classifications for this watershed were created from images for summertime 1986 and 1996 and subsequently used as input to the Clarke urban growth model, called SLEUTH, to predict land use changes to the year 2025. Simulations with this model show a progressive growth in the percentage of urban pixels and in impervious surface area in the watershed but also an increase in woodland, primarily in previously clear‐cut areas. Given that woodland area will continue to increase in area, surface runoff into Spring Creek is predicted to remain only slightly above present level. However, should the woodland amount fail to increase, surface runoff is then predicted to increase more significantly during the next 25 years. Finally, the concept of urban sprawl is addressed within the context of predicted increases in urbanization by relating the implied increase in impervious surface area to population density within the watershed.     

Attitudes Toward Water Allocation: Segmenting the Public on Beliefs toward Water Conservation

Environmental Management - The population in the American West has been increasing at a rapid rate and is predicted to continue growing. As a result, the availability, use, and allocation of water...     

REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE OF LOBLOLLY PINE TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: Large deviations in average annual air temperatures and total annual precipitation were observed across the southern United States during the last 50 years, and these fluctuations could become even larger during the next century. We used PnET-IIS, a monthly time-step forest process model that uses soil, vegetation, and climate inputs to assess the influence of changing climate on southern U.S. pine forest water use. After model predictions of historic drainage were validated, the potential influences of climate change on loblolly pine forest water use was assessed across the region using historic (1951 to 1984) monthly precipitation and air temperature which were modified by two general circulation models (GCMs). The GCMs predicted a 3.2°C to 7.2°C increase in average monthly air temperature, a -24 percent to + 31 percent change in monthly precipitation and a -1 percent to + 3 percent change in annual precipitation. As a comparison to the GCMs, a minimum climate change scenario using a constant 2°C increase in monthly air temperature and a 20 percent increase in monthly precipitation was run in conjunction with historic climate data. Predicted changes in forest water drainage were highly dependent on the GCM used. PnET-IIS predicted that along the northern range of loblolly pine, water yield would decrease with increasing leaf area, total evapotranspiration and soil water stress. However, across most of the southern U.S., PnET-IIS predicted decreased leaf area, total evapotranspiration, and soil water stress with an associated increase in water yield. Depending on the GCM and geographic location, predicted leaf area decreased to a point which would no longer sustain loblolly pine forests, and thus indicated a decrease in the southern most range of the species within the region. These results should be evaluated in relation to other changing environmental factors (i.e., CO₂ and O₃) which are not present in the current model.     

THE USE OF A SIMPLE MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN LAKE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A simple, black-box lake model was developed for phosphorus, using nonlinear regression analysis on a data base of north temperate lakes. The uncertainty associated with the model was then combined with the parameter uncertainty and the independent variable uncertainty to provide an estimate of the confidence limits associated with a predicted value. The prediction uncertainty is often neglected, yet it is an important measure of the usefulness of a model. Prediction uncertainty reflects the modeler's confidence in the model, and it should be used by a decision maker as a weight indicating the value of the model prediction. A procedure is outlined that combined lake modeling and uncertainty analysis for use in lake quality assessment and lake management. An example is provided illustrating the use of this procedure in nutrient budget sampling design, data analysis, and the evaluation of lake management strategies for a 208 program in New Hampshire.     

PROJECTED INCREASES IN MUNICIPAL WATER USE IN THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO CO2-INDUCED CLIMATIC CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: Two scenarios of CO₂-induced climatic change are used to estimate changes in water use for a number of municipalities in the Great Lakes region of Canada and the United States. Both scenarios, based on General Circulation Models produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), project warmer temperatures for the region. Using regression models based on monthly potential evapotranspiration for individual cities, it is projected that annual per capita water use will increase by a small amount, which will probably have only a marginal effect on water supplies in the Great Lakes basin. This method could also be used to assess the potential impacts of CO₂-induced climatic change on water use by the agriculture and power sectors, as well as the effectiveness of water policy initiatives, such as price changes. More work is needed to project water use during peak periods (warm dry spells), which may occur more frequently in a 2 × CO₂ climate in this region.     

A GRAPHICAL PROCEDURE FOR CLASSIFYING AQUIFER MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

ABSTRACT: A graphical procedure for classifying aquifer management strategy is proposed for use as a visual aid. The increasing demand for water, changes in the type of water uses and water sources, and economic consideration indicate that optimal strategies can shift over time. The procedure is described and, as an example, applied to the Tucson Basin. This procedure provides a simple visual tool for nonhydrologists, demonstrates the importance of water use and source interplay, and allows consideration of the time element in managing ground-water resources.     

UTILIZING INDUCED RECHARGE FOR REGIONAL AQUIFER MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The deep aquifers of the Portland Basin are used as a regional water supply by at least six municipalities in Oregon and Washington. Maximum continuous use of the aquifers in 1998 was 13 mgd and peak emergency use was 55 mgd. Continuous use of the deep aquifers at a rate of 55 mgd has been proposed and inchoate water rights have been reserved for expansion of pumping to 121 mgd. A study was completed, using a calibrated ground water flow model, to evaluate the role of induced recharge from the Columbia River in mitigating aquifer drawdown from continuous‐use and expanded pumping scenarios in the center and eastern areas of the basin. The absolute average residual was less than 3.6 feet for steady‐state model calibrations, and less than 8.0 feet for transient calibration to a 42 mgd pumping event in 1987 with 170 feet of drawdown. Continuous use of the aquifers at a rate of 55 mgd is predicted to increase drawdown to 210 feet. Expansion of pumping to 121 mgd in the center basin is predicted to cause 400 feet of drawdown. However, expansion of pumping in the east basin is predicted to result in only 220 feet of drawdown because of induced recharge from the Columbia River.     

滇中城市群产业结构与用地结构关联研究

城市群产业结构与用地结构的协调发展有利于提高滇中城市群用地的空间绩效,优化城市群产业结构,提升城市群的整体功能.运用比例变化指数和Granger因果关系方法研究了滇中城市群产业结构和土地利用之间的变化关系：滇中城市群产业结构变化滞后于城市土地结构变化,城市土地结构变化和产业结构变化的差距呈先增加后减少的趋势,即滇中城市群产业结构和土地利用结构由非同步变化逐渐进入同步变化轨迹;短期内,滇中城市群产业结构变化促进了优化土地利用,土地利用变化又反作用于产业结构,但滇中产业结构和用地结构未出现同步变化规律,说明滇中产业结构和土地的因果关系结构要在长期发展才可能实现.     

Exploring the capacity of radar remote sensing to estimate wetland marshes water storage

This paper focuses on the use of radar remote sensing for water storage estimation in wetland marshes of the Paraná River Delta in Argentina. The approach followed is based on the analysis of a temporal set of ENVISAT ASAR data which includes images acquired under different polarizations and incidence angles as well as different environmental conditions (water level, precipitation, and vegetation condition). Two marsh species, named junco and cortadera, were monitored. This overall data set gave us the possibility of studying and understanding the basic interactions between the radar, the soil under different flood conditions, and the vegetation structure. The comprehension of the observed features was addressed through electromagnetic models developed for these ecosystems. The procedure used in this work to estimate water level within marshes combines a direct electromagnetic model, field work data specifically obtained to feed the model, the actual ASAR measurements and a well known retrieval scheme based on a cost function. Results are validated with water level evaluations at specific points. A map showing an estimation of the water storage capacity and its error in junco and cortadera areas for the date where the investigation was done is also presented.     

Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

Estimating monthly total nitrogen concentration in streams by using artificial neural network

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a flexible and popular tool for predicting the non-linear behavior in the environmental system. Here, the feed-forward ANN model was used to investigate the relationship among the land use, fertilizer, and hydrometerological conditions in 59 river basins over Japan and then applied to estimate the monthly river total nitrogen concentration (TNC). It was shown by the sensitivity analysis, that precipitation, temperature, river discharge, forest area and urban area have high relationships with TNC. The ANN structure having eight inputs and one hidden layer with seven nodes gives the best estimate of TNC. The 1:1 scatter plots of predicted versus measured TNC were closely aligned and provided coefficients of errors of 0.98 and 0.93 for ANNs calibration and validation, respectively. From the results obtained, the ANN model gave satisfactory predictions of stream TNC and appears to be a useful tool for prediction of TNC in Japanese streams. It indicates that the ANN model was able to provide accurate estimates of nitrogen concentration in streams. Its application to such environmental data will encourage further studies on prediction of stream TNC in ungauged rivers and provide a useful tool for water resource and environment managers to obtain a quick preliminary assessment of TNC variations.     

MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR CONJUNCTIVE USE STUDY OF THE SAN JACINTO BASIN,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: A two-layered confined-unconfined numerical model for flow and mass transport is developed for the San Jacinto Basin. The model structure is determined by the geological structure of the Basin and model parameters are calibrated using 20 years of historical records. The total number of historical head observations used for the flow model calibration is 1,117 and the total number of the estimated parameters is 91. The two-layered transport model is also calibrated using historical water quality records. Sensitivity analysis of the flow model shows that only 68 parameters (out of a total of 91) are relatively sensitive and reliable. However, the unreliable parameters (23 of them) are found to be insensitive and thus not significant to the prediction and management of conjunctive use of surface water and ground water. The developed flow model has been used to study the two proposed artificial recharge scenarios for the San Jacinto Basin. We have found that during a relatively dry condition, an artificial recharge rate of 80 acre-ft/day can be achieved during the recharge period October through January. However, for a relatively wet condition, only 80 percent of the proposed rate can be effectively stored in the Basin during these months.