Measuring the Effects of a Flood Control Project: Hedonic Land Price Approach

This article aims to measure the effects of a flood control project planned for the Chitose River Basin in Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, using hedonic land price functions. In these functions, "annual expected depth of flood water" is introduced as an explanatory variable to represent the effect of the flood control project. Comparing the approach with the method of "the economic analysis of flood control projects", which has been a conventional evaluation method widely used in Japan, the efficiency and limitations of our approach are discussed.     

A PROPOSED METHOD OF EVALUATING FLOOD DAMAGES TO HISTORIC HOMES - AN EXTERNALITY APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Traditional procedures for evaluating flood damages to residential dwellings do not reflect intrinsic values when applied to historic homes. Such structures are worth more than that determined by using depth-damage curves provided by insurance companies who assess damage values based upon current labor and material costs. The evaluation of the worth of a historic home and subsequent damages due to inundation can be regarded as a problem of externalities. An assessment technique reflecting historic amenities or what has been termed replication cost is proposed in this paper. Replication costs would have widespread use not only in solving flood dammage problems, but also in any study where historic entities are subject to damages from catastrophies such as hurricanes, soil and beach erosion, and increasing urbanization. If adopted as a technique, it would enhance and preserve the ever-decreasing enclaves of historic homes and neighborhoods.     

RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND IN METRO MANILA1

ABSTRACT: An econometric demand function is estimated for residential water use in Metropolitan Manila. Regression results using annual time series data from 1970 to 1981 show that residential water consumption responds to changes in economic variables. Residential demand showed an income (household) elasticity of 0.542 and a combined price elasticity of -0.287. Implications for planning and management are discussed.     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND: A POOLED,TIME SERIES,CROSS SECTION STUDY OF MALMÖ, SWEDEN1

Shortcoming associated with past water demand studies are evaluated. To overcome these shortcomings, pooled, time series, cross section data from -6, Sweden, are used in an ordinary Least squares analysis to estimate the demand for residential water. Elasticities for five variables, including price and income, are estimated. An approach for the conduct of future water demand studies is suggested.     

STATE-OF-THE-ART OF ESTIMATING FLOOD DAMAGE IN URBAN AREAS1

ABSTRACT: With implementation of the Flood Insurance Act of 1968 many additional local flood protection projects are being considered. Consulting engineers and local agencies need consistent methods to estimate flood damage in order to perform feasibility studies. Federal agencies have a great deal of data and long experience in making damage estimates but no comprehensive guides are available at the local level. Curves of flood damages to different residential structure types are presented. The relationships in use by the U. S. Federal Insurance Administration are shown to be reasonable and are recommended for use as approximate guides. Additional research is recommended and discussion of the paper is invited in order to make additional data available in the literature.     

Flood Risk Perceptions and Overdevelopment in the Floodplain1

ABSTRACT: There is a long standing hypothesis that overdevelopment has occurred in the nation's floodplains due to imperfect information about the potential flood hazard, an expectation of disaster relief and anticipation of future structural protection. This hypothesis is investigated with multiple regression analysis of data for a case study area. In particular the question of whether floodplain residential property values are fully discounted for expected flood damages is addressed by considering the impact of the National Flood Insurance Program on property values. The extent to which flooding risk perceptions are based on low cost information such as distance from and elevation above the river is also considered. Finally, implications for floodplain management policy are discussed.     

Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area1

Mieno, Taro and John B. Braden, 2011. Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):713‐723. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00536.x Abstract: This paper provides the first contemporary analysis of residential water demand in humid Northeastern Illinois, in the vicinity of Chicago, and explores seasonal and income‐based differentials in the responsiveness of water use to water prices. Using a panel of system‐level data for eight water systems and controlling for seasons, weather, incomes, and community characteristics, the analysis yields low estimates of price elasticity of demand for water in line with other studies. Furthermore, price response is greater in summer and less in higher income communities. We suggest that use of seasonal pricing can help mitigate equity issues arising from differential income elasticities while taking advantage of the greater price responsiveness of summertime water use.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A GIS‐BASED FLOOD INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR FLOODPLAIN MODELING AND DAMAGE CALCULATION1

ABSTRACT: This work presents a flexible system called GIS‐based Flood Information System (GFIS) for floodplain modeling, flood damages calculation, and flood information support. It includes two major components, namely floodplain modeling and custom designed modules. Model parameters and input data are gathered, reviewed, and compiled using custom designed modules. Through these modules, it is possible for GFIS to control the process of flood‐plain modeling, presentation of simulation results, and calculation of flood damages. Empirical stage‐damage curves are used to calculate the flood damages. These curves were generated from stage‐damage surveys of anthropogenic structures, crops, etc., in the coastal region of a frequently flooded area in Chia‐I County, Taiwan. The average annual flood damages are calculated with exceedance probability and flood damages for the designed rainfalls of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 year recurrence intervals with a duration of 24 hours. The average annual flood depth in this study area can also be calculated using the same method. The primary advantages of GFIS are its ability to accurately predict the locations of flood area, depth, and duration; calculate flood damages in the floodplain; and compare the reduction of flood damages for flood mitigation plans.     

THE FLOOD HAZARD AND DYNAMICS OF THE URBAN RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET1

ABSTRACT: Literature on the flood hazard/residential land market relationship is full of contradictory findings, many of which are counter-intuitive to the belief that flooding has a negative impact on house prices. This research advances a conceptual framework through which these relationships might be re-examined. Based on the expected utility model, the theoretical framework integrates the economic notion of capitalization with spatial and temporal characteristics of the flood hazard. Four communities with different flood regimes are used to test the effect of flooding on the residential real estate market. Results show that, (1) there is an identifiable relationship between characteristics of the flood hazard and changes in house values; (2) the length of the recovery period is dependent on characteristics and expectations of flooding, attributes of the real estate market, and availability of capital to fuel recovery; and (3) dynamics of the urban market and spatial extent of the flood hazard influence these relationships. Further research is now necessary to examine these findings under different spatial, temporal, hydrological, and socio-economic conditions.     

DEMAND SIGNALS FOR URBAN DRAINAGE AND FLOOD CONTROL PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT: Planning for urban drainage and flood control requires the use of a rational procedure for setting priorities and allocating funds. An innovative procedure developed by the Los Angeles County Flood Control District is described. It consists of the use of bond election voting results as a surrogate for demand signals representing the public preference for project approval. A regression equation has been developed to relate project characteristics to the likelihood of approval. The procedure is implemented through a “funnel-screen” review procedure which results in a list of reviewed and approved projects.     

Assessing the bio-psychosocial correlates of flood impacts in coastal areas of Lagos,Nigeria

This paper explores the complex heterogeneous experiences of flood impacts based on a bio-psychosocial model of socio-economic, demographic, behavioural and environmental factors. Using ordinary least squares regression on a cross-sectional survey of 1003 individuals, flood impacts in three contiguous coastal neighbourhoods in Lagos, Nigeria, were modelled. The results show that approximately 52% of the variability in flood impact was accounted for by education, age, family structure, ethnicity, personal health concern and income. While involvement in coping was not a significant predictor of flood impacts, relocation emerged as a strong predictor. The inclusion of behavioural factors did not change the magnitude and significance of the relationship between demographic factors and flood impacts. However, the effects of age, education and personal health concern disappeared when environmental factors were controlled. The overall importance of the predictors for determining flood impact in decreasing order is as follows: income > coping strategies > ethnicity = participation in community development > family structure > personal health concerns > housing quality > reasons for living in residential locality > neighbourhood vulnerability to flood > housing vulnerability to flood.     

HICKORY CREEK DRY RESERVOIR: A COMPRAOMISE DESIGN FOR BOTH FLOOD CONTROL AND NATURAL AREA PROTECTION1

Abstract: The proposed Hickory and Spring Creeks Flood Control and Recreation Project of the Illinois State Division of Water Resources and the Will County Forest Preserve District is desinged to provide flood control for Joliet, Illinos, and areas of the watershed to the east of the city and to provide open-space recreational land upstream from the Hickory Breek Dry Reservoir embankement. A viable forest ecosytem in the reservoir flood pool following construction is of major importance to the project. Factors of the environment influencing tree distribution and flood tolerance and a process for determining the best operational design to provide both flood control and the maintenance of a natural streamside forest ecosystem are described.     

A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF FLOOD INDUCED CHANGES IN URBAN LAND VALUES1

ABSTRACT: By integrating literature from flood hazard research and urban economics a theoretical structure is developed to explain changes in residential land values following flood events. The negative aspects of the flood hazard are shown to be capitalized in the value of the property. It is further suggested that land values (i.e., capitalization) will vary both spatially across the floodplain and temporally depending on the frequency, severity and spatial characteristics of the flood event. Previous work in this area has not addressed the capitalization process explicitly and has not specifically examined the ability of the land market to recover. This may account for the contradictory findings in the published literature.     

THE IMPACT OF FLOODPLAIN REGULATIONS ON RESIDENTIAL LAND VALUES IN OREGON1

ABSTRACT: The impact of floodplain regulations on mean appreciation rates of residential land values was tested at six study areas in five counties in western Oregon. The study hypothesis that such regulations significantly depress appreciation rates of regulated lands relative to those of similar unregulated lands was in most cases rejected. When the hypothesis was accepted circumstances would render conclusions tenuous. The problems and issues facing this type of research are presented in case studies of two of the research study areas. The following factors challenge investigators seeking to resolve questions about the relationship between land use regulations and land values: varying degrees of stringency with which regulations are enforced; unequal assessment procedures between counties; influences external to floodplain regulations that may affect appreciation rates, including denial of permits for septic tanks, flood damages, and amenity values associated with waterfront locations; and the uncertain effect that the availability of flood insurance, which accompanies floodplain regulations, has on land values.     

土地使用权挂牌出让中底价的评估

如何科学评估国有土地使用权挂牌底价，是国有土地使用权以挂牌方式出让工作中极为重要的环节。通过分析挂牌出让底价评估特点、地价内涵，探讨挂牌出让底价的评估方法，指出挂牌出让底价评估宜重点选用市场比较法和假设开发法两种评估方法，明确了市场比较法和假设开发法评估国有土地使用权挂牌出让底价的实施步骤和参数选取标准。     

THE RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF DAMS AND SECULAR CLIMATIC CHANGE ON DOWNSTREAM FLOODING,AUSTRALIA1

An examination of 100 years of flood record at Windsor on the Hawkesbury River in Eastern Australia suggests that Warragamba Dam, which encloses 62 percent of the catchment area, has negligible effect upon flooding. Secular climate change is the important variable in determining changes in flood regime.     

邻避设施导致的资产损失评估研究——以南京市为例

随着居民环境和公众维权意识的提高,邻避冲突会逐步从感性的情绪表达过渡到理性的利益诉求。选择房地产作为度量邻避设施导致的资产损失的媒介,基于双重差分模型构建了邻避设施导致的资产损失评估方法。以南京市为例,选择55个有效住宅社区1980个样本作为处理组,选择25个商圈住宅社区900个样本作为对照组,研究了化工厂、污水处理厂、公墓和监狱四种典型邻避设施对周边资产价格的影响。研究发现:不同邻避设施对周边资产影响不同;化工厂、监狱、公墓和污水处理厂的影响程度依次为302、284、194和180;区域繁华因素等可以消除邻避设施的部分影响;邻避设施周边资产的市场表现仅满足"上涨时涨得少",而不满足"下跌时跌得多"的特点。     

VENTURA RIVER FLOOD OF FEBRUARY 1992: A LESSON IGNORED?1

ABSTRACT: On February 12, 1992, a portion of the Ventura River, California, flowed through the Ventura Beach RV Resort which had recently been constructed across a major historically active distributary of the Ventura River delta. State and local land-use planners recognized the flood hazards associated with the site, but decision-makers relied on analytical methods developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and flood-hazard categories developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which did not adequately reflect the mobile nature of the Ventura River channel and distributaries. A better understanding of the historical behavior of the Ventura River could have averted the flood damages experienced in 1992. Low intensity recreational, agricultural, or habitat restoration use of the site would minimize potential flood damages and obviate the need for structural flood protection that would impact the river's natural resources. Continued operation of the recreational vehicle park could result in additional flood damages in the relatively near future; recognizing the limitations of the flood-modeling methodologies used for the Ventura Beach RV Resort could prevent similar miscalculations of flood potential in comparable situations.     

A CRAZY IDEA ON URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT?1

ABSTRACT. High percentage of imperviousness in the city is the source of storm runoff. Roof area contributes significantly to the imperviousness. An attempt to make use of roofs as urban flood control device and water conservation measure is advocated. Two different schemes, one for built-up industrial-commercial area, the other for residential area, are suggested. The former utilizes the roof as detention reservoir for flood control, the latter employs recharge pit to convert runoff into ground water resource. The proposed schemes are not only hydrologically, hydraulically and structurally sound but also economically feasible. It is worth considering in the future planning of urban renewal and urban development.