A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF FLOOD INDUCED CHANGES IN URBAN LAND VALUES1

ABSTRACT: By integrating literature from flood hazard research and urban economics a theoretical structure is developed to explain changes in residential land values following flood events. The negative aspects of the flood hazard are shown to be capitalized in the value of the property. It is further suggested that land values (i.e., capitalization) will vary both spatially across the floodplain and temporally depending on the frequency, severity and spatial characteristics of the flood event. Previous work in this area has not addressed the capitalization process explicitly and has not specifically examined the ability of the land market to recover. This may account for the contradictory findings in the published literature.     

A HYDROCLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RED RWER OF THE NORTH SNOWMELT FLOOD CATASTROPHE OF 19971

ABSTRACT: The flood hydroclimatology of the Grand Forks flood of April 1997, the most costly flood on a per capita basis for a major metropolitan area in United States history, is analyzed in terms of the natural processes that control spring snowmelt flooding in the region. The geomorphological characteristics of the basin are reviewed, and an integrated assessment of the hydroclimatological conditions during the winter of 1996 to 1997 is presented to gain a real‐world understanding of the physical basis of this catastrophic flood event. The Grand Forks flood resulted from the principal flood‐producing factors occurring at either historic or extreme levels, or at levels conducive to severe flooding. Above normal fall precipitation increased the fall soil moisture storage and reduced the spring soil moisture storage potential. A concrete frost layer developed that effectively reduced the soil infiltration capacity to zero. Record snowfall totals and snow cover depths occurred across the basin because of the unusual persistence of a blocking high circulation pattern throughout the winter. A severe, late spring blizzard delayed the snowmelt season and replenished the snow cover to record levels for early April. This blizzard was followed by a sudden transition to an extreme late season thaw due to the abrupt breakdown of the blocking circulation pattern. The presence of river ice contributed to backwater effects and affected the timing of tributary inflows to the main stem of the Red River. Only the absence of spring rains prevented an even more catastrophic flood disaster from taking place. This paper contributes to our understanding of the flood hydroclimatology of catastrophic flood events in an unusual flood hazard region that possesses relatively flat terrain, a north‐flowing river, and an annual peak discharge time series dominated by spring snowmelt floods.     

A Framework to Develop Nationwide Flooding Extents Using Climate Models and Assess Forecast Potential for Flood Resilience

The methods used to simulate flood inundation extents can be significantly improved by high‐resolution spatial data captured over a large area. This paper presents a hydraulic analysis methodology and framework to estimate national‐level floodplain changes likely to be generated by climate change. The hydraulic analysis was performed using existing published Federal Emergency Management Agency 100‐year floodplains and estimated 100‐ and 10‐year return period peak flow discharges. The discharges were estimated using climate variables from global climate models for two future growth scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5. River channel dimensions were developed based on existing regional United States Geological Survey publications relating bankfull discharges with channel characteristics. Mathematic relationships for channel bankfull topwidth, depth, and side slope to contributing drainage area measured at model cross sections were developed. The proposed framework can be utilized at a national level to identify critical areas for flood risk assessment. Existing hydraulic models at these “hot spots” could be repurposed for near–real‐time flood forecasting operations. Revitalizing these models for use in simulating flood scenarios in near–real time through the use of meteorological forecasts could provide useful information for first responders of flood emergencies.     

FLOOD HAZARD STUDIES IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN USING REMOTE SENSING1

ABSTRACT. The Spring 1973 Mississippi River flood was investigated using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1. Both manual and automatic analyses of the data indicate that ERTS-I is extremely useful as a regional tool for flood management. Quantitative estimates of area flooded were made in St. Charles County, Missouri and Arkansas. Flood hazard mapping was conducted in three study areas along the Mississippi River using pre-flood ERTS-1 imagery enlarged to 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale. The flood prone areas delineated on these maps correspond to areas that would be inundated by significant flooding (approximately the 100 year flood). The flood prone area boundaries were generally in agreement with flood hazard maps produced by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers and U. S. Geological Survey although the latter are somewhat more detailed because of their larger scale. Initial results indicate that ERTS-1 digital mapping of flood prone areas can be performed at 1:62,500 which is comparable to some conventional flood hazard map scales.     

Environmental inequality and flood hazard

This paper reports findings from research conducted for the Environment Agency1 investigating the social distribution of the risk of flooding in England and Wales. Following a broadly outcome based analysis, and using socio-geographic modelling techniques and the 1991 Census, the social class characteristics of the population at risk from flooding were explored and compared with the population considered not at risk as a means to uncover any evidence of social inequality. The Environment Agency indicative flood plain maps (1 in 100 year return for fluvial and 1 in a 200 year return for tidal flooding) were used to identify at risk areas. Two different methods of capturing the at risk population were employed; one based on census enumeration districts and the other using surface population models which redistribute the area population over a grid surface of the area of interest. The two methods provide completely different results. The enumeration district method indicates that those in higher social classes are the most likely to be exposed to flood hazard while the grid method indicates that it is those in the lower social classes who are most at risk. We suggest that the grid method provides a more accurate analysis but highlight the significant effect that the choice of areal unit and spatial analysis can have on conclusions about the extent of any inequality in vulnerability to flooding.     

A Multi‐Scale Analysis of Single‐Family Residential Water Use in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Studies that evaluate determinants of residential water demand typically use data from a single spatial scale. Although household‐scale data are preferred, especially when econometric models are used, researchers may be limited to aggregate data. There is little, if any, empirical analysis to assess whether spatial scale may lead to ecological fallacy problems in residential water use research. Using linear mixed‐effects models, we compare the results for the relationship of single‐family water use with its determinants using data from the household and census tract scales in the city of Phoenix. Model results between the household and census tract scale are similar suggesting the ecological fallacy may not be significant. Common significant determinants on these two spatial scales include household size, household income, house age, pool size, irrigable lot size, precipitation, and temperature. We also use city/town scale data from the Phoenix metropolitan area to parameterize the linear mixed‐effects model. The difference in the parameter estimates of those common variables compared to the first two scales indicates there is spatial heterogeneity in the relationship between single‐family water use and its determinants among cities and towns. The negative relationship between single‐family house density and residential water use suggests that residential water consumption could be reduced through coordination of land use planning and water demand management.     

Assessing the socio-economic impacts of green/blue space,urban residential and road infrastructure projects in the Confluence (Lyon): a hedonic pricing simulation approach

Urban green/blue spaces are put under pressure as urban areas grow, develop and evolve. It is increasingly recognized, however, that green/blue spaces provide important ecosystem services, stimulate higher real estate prices and prevent flooding problems. This paper aims to assess and compare the socio-economic impacts of potential green/blue space, urban residential and road infrastructure development scenarios in the Lyon Confluence project area (France), using the Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD) hedonic pricing simulation model. Results show four major tendencies regarding the value-added of green/blue spaces in urban landscapes: (1) cities become more compact; (2) population densities increase; (3) real estate values rise; and (4) demographic distribution patterns change. The magnitude of these impacts depends, however, on the quality and size of the intervention, the social classes attracted to the intervention area and on the location of the intervention relative to existing residential areas, urban centres, road infrastructure and environmental amenities.     

OPTICAL DATA PROCESSING AND PROJECTED APPLICATIONS OF THE ERTS-1 IMAGERY COVERING THE 1973 MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FLOODS1

ABSTRACT. Flooding along the Mississippi River and some of its tributaries was detected by the multispectral scanner (MSS) on the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS-1) on at least three orbits during the spring of 1973. The ERTS data provided the first opportunity for mapping the regional extent of flooding at the time of the imagery. Special optical data processing techniques were used to produce a variety of multispectral color composites enhancing flood-plain details. One of these, a 2-color composite of near infrared bands 6 and 7, was enlarged and registered to 1:250,000-scale topographic maps and used as the basis for preparation of flood image maps. Two specially filtered 3-color composites of MSS bands 5, 6, and 7 and 4, 5, and 7 were prepared to aid in the interpretation of the data. The extent of the flooding was vividly depicted on a single image by 2-color temporal composites produced on the additive-color viewer using band 7 flood data superimposed on pre-flood band 7 images. On May 24, when the floodwaters at St. Louis receded to bankfull stage, imagery was again obtained by ERTS. Analysis of temporal data composites of the pre-flood and post-flood band 7 images indicate that changes in surface reflectance characteristics caused by the flooding can be delineated, thus making it possible to map the overall area flooded without the necessity of a real-time system to track and image the peak flood waves. Regional planning and disaster relief agencies such as the Corps of Engineers, Office of Emergency Preparedness, Soil Conservation Service, interstate river basin commissions and state agencies, as well as private lending and insurance institutions, have indicated strong potential applications for ERTS image-maps of flood-prone areas.     

Flood Risk Perceptions and Overdevelopment in the Floodplain1

ABSTRACT: There is a long standing hypothesis that overdevelopment has occurred in the nation's floodplains due to imperfect information about the potential flood hazard, an expectation of disaster relief and anticipation of future structural protection. This hypothesis is investigated with multiple regression analysis of data for a case study area. In particular the question of whether floodplain residential property values are fully discounted for expected flood damages is addressed by considering the impact of the National Flood Insurance Program on property values. The extent to which flooding risk perceptions are based on low cost information such as distance from and elevation above the river is also considered. Finally, implications for floodplain management policy are discussed.     

THE EFFECT OF FLOOD PLAIN LOCATION ON PROPERTY VALUES: THREE TOWNS IN NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY1

ABSTRACT: The persistence of development and settlement in flood plains and continued damages from flooding, raises the question of how property owners respond to flood plain location and whether property values reflect this response. Existing studies disagree on the significance of flood hazard for property values. This study evaluates the effect of flood plain location on assessed valuation and home value in three towns in New Jersey. A t-test on mean assessed value and value of owner-occupied units at block levels showed no statistically significant variation for flood prone and nonflood prone lands. Possible explanations are that homeowners do not know or perceive the risk of living in flood plains, assessors do not incorporate flooding into assessment criteria, and the National Flood Insurance Program subsidies and broadened financial markets may equalize property values.     

Protecting people and property: the influence of land-use planners on flood hazard mitigation in New Urbanist developments

Research suggests that characteristics of local government land-use planners help determine the priority that local communities place on flood hazard mitigation. However, research has not examined the significance of land-use planners' values and role orientations for flood hazard mitigation. Multiple regression analysis is used to examine the influence that land-use planners' values and role orientations have on flood hazard mitigation in a national sample of New Urbanist development projects. Findings indicate that land-use planners' values and role orientations have significant implications for flood hazard mitigation in these projects. The paper recommends that local governments adopt a land-use planning approach to flood hazard mitigation that relies on land-use planners to help direct development away from hazardous portions of development sites.     

The impact of tidal flooding on a coastal community in Semarang, Indonesia

The article presents household vulnerability, local community adaptive capacity, and government’s response to tidal flood hazard in the Semarang coastal area, Central Java Province, Indonesia. Using data gathered from a survey of households, the study revealed a number of important factors about the interaction between people and flood. The coastal community has been experiencing problems related to tidal floods. They have adapted to tidal flooding with structural measures, such as increasing the floor level, making small dams in front of houses, increasing yard and street levels in the neighborhood area, and creating dykes around residential areas. Tidal flood mitigation in the Semarang coastal area should incorporate governmental action and local community capacities for proper protection of the population.     

浅谈城市房价与地价

地价与房价作为房地产市场的两个重要指标，其水平高低对房地产市场的正常、有序发展起者重要作用。房价与地价在一定范围内、一定条件下相互作用，相互影响。正确分析和处理房价与地价的关系，促进房地产业健康发展，可采取以下措施：土地交易信息公开、透明；土地及时开发，及时入市；加强对土地市场供需结构的宏观调控和经济适用房、廉租房体系的建设等。     

Conceptual Framework for the National Flood Interoperability Experiment

The National Flood Interoperability Experiment is a research collaboration among academia, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service, and government and commercial partners to advance the application of the National Water Model for flood forecasting. In preparation for a Summer Institute at the National Water Center in June‐July 2015, a demonstration version of a near real‐time, high spatial resolution flood forecasting model was developed for the continental United States. The river and stream network was divided into 2.7 million reaches using the National Hydrography Dataset Plus geospatial dataset and it was demonstrated that the runoff into these stream reaches and the discharge within them could be computed in 10 min at the Texas Advanced Computing Center. This study presents a conceptual framework to connect information from high‐resolution flood forecasting with real‐time observations and flood inundation mapping and planning for local flood emergency response.     

An empirical study of spatial-temporal growth patterns of a voluntary residential green infrastructure program

Voluntary residential green infrastructure (GI) stormwater management retrofit programs can help cities comply with environmental regulations while also improving quality of life. Previous research has identified influential factors in residents’ willingness to adopt GI, but few have simultaneously studied the spatial and temporal dynamics of GI. I use a six-year record of participation in a voluntary residential GI program in Washington DC to explore how neighborhood characteristics and social influence affect GI adoption over time. Statistical regression and Monte Carlo permutation resampling techniques are used to explain the spatial-temporal patterns of growth of the program. I demonstrate empirical evidence that participation location is increasingly determined by the locations of previous participants. These findings suggest that past participants will increasingly influence spatial clustering of GI in the city.     

辽宁省房地产业市场结构与价格行为的实证分析

从产业组织理论的角度对辽宁省房地产市场的市场结构进行了分析,得出辽宁省房地产市场处于完全竞争类型,且市场集中度有下降趋势.虽然城镇居民和农村居民的可支配收入年均增长率大于房价年均增长率,但房价增长对城镇居民的影响并不明显,而对农村居民的影响较明显,尤其是那些从农村出来准备定居城市的"准城市"居民.应用价格蛛网模型推导出辽宁省房地产市场在房价为3114.3元/m2时,该市场处于出清状态.基于当前的房价,辽宁省房地产市场有一定的泡沫.     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

Social Dimensions of Urban Flood Experience,Exposure, and Concern

With growing urban populations and climate change, urban flooding is an important global issue, even in dryland regions. Flood risk assessments are usually used to identify vulnerable locations and populations, flooding experience patterns, or levels of concern about flooding, but rarely are all of these approaches combined. Furthermore, the social dynamics of flood concerns, exposure, and experience are underexplored. We combined geographic and survey data on household‐level measures of flood experience, concern, and exposure in Utah's urbanizing Wasatch Front. We asked: (1) Are socially vulnerable groups more likely to be exposed to flood risk? (2) How common are flooding experiences among urban residents, and how are these experiences related to sociodemographic characteristics and exposure? and (3) How concerned are urban residents about flooding, and does concern vary by exposure, flood experience, and sociodemographic characteristics? Although floodplain residents were more likely to be White and have higher incomes, respondents who were of a racial/ethnic minority, were older, had less education, and were living in floodplains were more likely to report flood experiences and concern about flooding. Flood risk management approaches need to address social as well as physical sources of vulnerability to floods and recognize social sources of variation in flood experiences and concern.     

Integrating flood hazard into site selection of detention basins using spatial multi-criteria decision-making

This study presents an innovative approach for the integration of flood hazard into the site selection of detention basins. The site selection process is conducted by taking into account multiple criteria and disciplines. Hydraulic modeling results derived from stormwater management model are employed by Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to determine flood hazard score. The score generated by TOPSIS is used in a spatial multi-criteria decision-making site selection framework. Applying the framework, a suitability map is generated in which primary locations for detention basin placement are determined. The method is demonstrated through the case study of Darakeh River Catchment, which is located in northern Tehran, Iran. The presented framework can be easily utilized for site selection of other stormwater management techniques, such as low impact development and best management practices, due to its versatility.     

Perspectives on Disconnects Between Scientific Information and Management Decisions on Post-fire Recovery in Western US

Environmental regulations frequently mandate the use of “best available” science, but ensuring that it is used in decisions around the use and protection of natural resources is often challenging. In the Western US, this relationship between science and management is at the forefront of post-fire land management decisions. Recent fires, post-fire threats (e.g. flooding, erosion), and the role of fire in ecosystem health combine to make post-fire management highly visible and often controversial. This paper uses post-fire management to present a framework for understanding why disconnects between science and management decisions may occur. We argue that attributes of agencies, such as their political or financial incentives, can limit how effectively science is incorporated into decision-making. At the other end of the spectrum, the lack of synthesis or limited data in science can result in disconnects between science-based analysis of post-fire effects and agency policy and decisions. Disconnects also occur because of the interaction between the attributes of agencies and the attributes of science, such as their different spatial and temporal scales of interest. After offering examples of these disconnects in post-fire treatment, the paper concludes with recommendations to reduce disconnects by improving monitoring, increasing synthesis of scientific findings, and directing social-science research toward identifying and deepening understanding of these disconnects.