Effect of Snow Cover Conditions on the Hydrologic Regime: Case Study in a Pluvial‐Nival Watershed,Japan1

Abstract: Hydrologic monitoring in a small forested and mountainous headwater basin in Niigata Prefecture has been undertaken since 2000. An important characteristic of the basin is that the hydrologic regime contains pluvial elements year‐round, including rain‐on‐snow, in addition to spring snowmelt. We evaluated the effect of different snow cover conditions on the hydrologic regime by analyzing observed data in conjunction with model simulations of the snowpack. A degree‐day snow model is presented and applied to the study basin to enable estimation of the basin average snow water equivalent using air temperature at three representative elevations. Analysis of hydrological time series data and master recession curves showed that flow during the snowmelt season was generated by a combination of ground water flow having a recession constant of 0.018/day and diurnal melt water flow having a recession constant of 0.015/hour. Daily flows during the winter/snowmelt season showed greater persistence than daily flows during the warm season. The seasonal water balance indicated that the ratio of runoff to precipitation during the cold season (December to May) was about 90% every year. Seasonal snowpack plays an important role in defining the hydrologic regime, with winter precipitation and snowmelt runoff contributing about 65% of the annual runoff. The timing of the snowmelt season, indicated by the date of occurrence of the first significant snowmelt event, was correlated with the occurrence of low flow events. Model simulations showed that basin average snow water equivalent reached a peak around mid‐February to mid‐March, although further validation of the model is required at high elevation sites.     

Observed Changes in Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande Basin

Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model‐based projections of 21st‐Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958–2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in the April–July snowmelt runoff season. Small increases in precipitation have reduced the impact of declining snowpack on trends in streamflow. Changes in the snowpack–runoff relationship are noticeable in hydrographs of mean monthly streamflow, but are most apparent in the changing ratios of precipitation (rain + snow, and SWE) to streamflow and in the declining fraction of runoff attributable to snowpack or winter precipitation. The observed changes provide observational confirmation for model projections of decreasing runoff attributable to snowpack, and demonstrate the decreasing utility of snowpack for predicting subsequent streamflow on a seasonal basis in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.     

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CALIFORNIA HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Previous reports based on climate change scenarios have suggested that California will be subjected to increased wintertime and decreased summertime streamflow. Due to the uncertainty of projections in future climate, a new range of potential climatological future temperature shifts and precipitation ratios is applied to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model and Anderson Snow Model in order to determine hydrologic sensitivities. Two general circulation models (GCMs) were used in this analysis: one that is warm and wet (HadCM2 run 1) and one that is cool and dry (PCM run B06.06), relative to the GCM projections for California that were part of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A set of specified incremental temperature shifts from 1.5°C to 5.0°C and precipitation ratios from 0.70 to 1.30 were also used as input to the snow and soil moisture accounting models, providing for additional scenarios (e.g., warm/dry, cool/wet). Hydrologic calculations were performed for a set of California river basins that extend from the coastal mountains and Sierra Nevada northern region to the southern Sierra Nevada region; these were applied to a water allocation analysis in a companion paper. Results indicate that for all snow‐producing cases, a larger proportion of the streamflow volume will occur earlier in the year. The amount and timing is dependent on the characteristics of each basin, particularly the elevation. Increased temperatures lead to a higher freezing line, therefore less snow accumulation and increased melting below the freezing height. The hydrologic response varies for each scenario, and the resulting solution set provides bounds to the range of possible change in streamflow, snowmelt, snow water equivalent, and the change in the magnitude of annual high flows. An important result that appears for all snowmelt driven runoff basins, is that late winter snow accumulation decreases by 50 percent toward the end of this century.     

Impacts of 21st‐Century Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

Climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America include warmer temperatures (T), reduced precipitation (P) in summer months, and increased P during all other seasons. Using a physically based hydrologic model and an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate model scenarios produced by the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, we examine the nature of changing hydrologic extremes (floods and low flows) under natural conditions for about 300 river locations in the PNW. The combination of warming, and shifts in seasonal P regimes, results in increased flooding and more intense low flows for most of the basins in the PNW. Flood responses depend on average midwinter T and basin type. Mixed rain and snow basins, with average winter temperatures near freezing, typically show the largest increases in flood risk because of the combined effects of warming (increasing contributing basin area) and more winter P. Decreases in low flows are driven by loss of snowpack, drier summers, and increasing evapotranspiration in the simulations. Energy‐limited basins on the west side of the Cascades show the strongest declines in low flows, whereas more arid, water‐limited basins on the east side of the Cascades show smaller reductions in low flows. A fine‐scale analysis of hydrologic extremes over the Olympic Peninsula echoes the results for the larger rivers discussed above, but provides additional detail about topographic gradients.     

HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF FLOODING DAMAGE ON A USA/QUEBEC RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: There is a general belief in the public eye that extreme events such as floods are becoming more and more common. This paper explores this hypothesis by examining the historical evolution of annual expected flooding damage on the Chateauguay River Basin, located at the border between the United States and the province of Quebec, Canada. A database of basin land use was constructed for the years 1930 and 1995 to assess anthropogenic changes and their impact on the basin's hydrology. The progressive modification of the likelihood of a flooding event over the same period was then investigated using homogeneity and statistical tests on available hydrometric data. The evolution of the annual expected flooding damage was then evaluated using a coupled hydrologic/hydraulic simulator linked to a damage analysis model. The simulator and model were used to estimate flooding damage over a wide range of flooding return periods, for conditions prevailing in 1963 and 1995. Results of the analysis reveal the absence of any increasing or decreasing trend in the historical occurrence of flooding events. However, a general increase in the annual expected flooding damage was observed for all studied river sections. This increase is linked to an historical increase in damages for a given flooding event, and is the result of unbridled construction and development within the flood zone. To assess for future trends, this study also examined the potential impacts linked to the anticipated global warming. Results indicate that a significant increase in seasonal flooding events and annual expected flooding damage is possible over the next century. In fact, what is now considered a 100‐year flooding event for the summer/fall season could become a ten‐year event by the end of this century. This shows that potential future impacts linked to climate change should be considered now by engineers, land planners, and decision makers. This is especially critical if a design return period is part of the decision making process.     

Climate Change Impacts and Uncertainties on Spring Flooding of Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River

The source of the Richelieu River is Lake Champlain, located between the states of New York, Vermont, and Québec. In 2011, the lake and the Richelieu River reached historical flood levels, raising questions about the influence of climate change on the watershed. The objectives of this work are to model the hydrology of the watershed, construct a reservoir model for the lake and to analyze flooding trends using climate simulations. The basin was modeled using the HSAMI lumped conceptual model from Hydro‐Québec with a semi‐distributed approach in order to estimate the inflows into Lake Champlain. The discharge at the Richelieu River was computed by using a mass balance equation between the inputs and outputs of Lake Champlain. Future trends were estimated over the 2041‐2070 and 2071‐2100 periods using a large number of outputs from general circulation models and regional climate models downscaled with constant scaling and daily translation methods. While there is a certain amount of uncertainty as to future trends, there is a decreasing tendency in the magnitude of the mean spring flood. A flood frequency analysis showed most climate projections indicate the severity of most extreme spring floods may be reduced over the two future periods although results are subject to a much larger uncertainty than for the mean spring flood. On the other hand, results indicate summer‐fall extreme events such as caused by hurricane Irene in August 2011 may become more frequent in the future.     

REVISITING THE DEGREE-DAY METHOD FOR SNOWMELT COMPUTATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The simple, empirical degree-day approach for calculating snowmelt and runoff from mountain basins has been in use for more than 60 years. It is frequently suggested that the degree-day method be replaced by the more physically-based energy balance approach. The degree-day approach, however, maintains its popularity, applicability, and effectiveness. It is shown that the degree-day method is reliable for computing total snowmelt depths for periods of a week to the entire snowmelt season. It can also be used for daily snowmelt depths when utilized in connection with an adequate snowmelt runoff model for computing the basin runoff. The degree-day ratio is shown to vary seasonally as opposed to being constant as is often assumed. Additionally, in order to evaluate the degree-day ratio correctly, the changing snow cover extent in a basin during the snowmelt season must be taken into account. It is also possible to combine the degree-day approach with a radiation component so that short time interval (<24 hours) computations of snowmelt depth can be made. When snowmelt input is transformed to basin output (runoff) by a snowmelt runoff model, there is little difference between the degree-day approach and a radiation-based approach. This is fortuitous because the physically-based energy balance models will not soon displace the degree-day methods because of their excessive data requirements.     

FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD RESPONSES FOR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH1

ABSTRACT The flooding conditions in the basin of the Red River of the North are reviewed in terms of the accuracy of the flood forecasts and the response of both the floodplain occupants and government agencies to these forecasts. The flood prediction methods in Canada and the United States are compared. The accuracy of these prediction measures for the major floods in recent history is reviewed. The differences between the way in which the American and Canadian authorities approach the flood emergencies are outlined. The accuracy of the forecasts are plotted against a number of parameters which reflect the efficiency of the flood fighting measures initiated by those flood forecasts. The significant features of these plots are discussed.     

THE FLOOD OF '96 AND ITS SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS IN THE SUSQUEHANNA RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The meteorology flood hydroclimatolog and socioeconomic impacts of the Flood of January 1996 in the Susquehanna River Basin are explored. The analysis explains how an unusual storm system brought high humidities, high temperatures, strong winds, and heavy rain to the basin. The rapid melt of the deep snowpack, combined with the heavy rainfall, produced the sudden release of large volumes of water. Because the ground surface was frozen or saturated, this water moved primarily as overland flow. Thus, the flood waters were not restricted to areas immediately adjacent to stream channels and, consequently, some of the largest impacts were on people, property, and infrastructure in areas not normally prone to flooding. Socioeconomic patterns of flooding over time and space are investigated to put this flood into context and to highlight its impacts. The analysis concludes that if such overland flooding is a more common feature of climate change, then the current vulnerability to this form of flooding and its economic implications must be considered carefully.     

CAUSES OF PEAK FLOWS IN NORTHWESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: Both catchment experiments and a review of hydrologic processes suggest a varying effect of forest harvest on the magnitude of peak flows according to the cause of those peak flows. In northwestern Montana and Northeastern Idaho, annual maximum flows can result from spring snowmelt, rain, mid-winter rain-on-snow, or rain-on-spring-snowmelt. Meteorologic and physical data were used to determine the cause of annual maximum flows in six basins which had the necessary data and were smaller than 150 mi². Rain-on-spring-snowmelt was the most frequent cause of annual maximum flows in all six basins, although there was a strong gradient in the magnitude and cause of peak flows from southwest to northeast. Less frequent mid-winter rain-on-snow events caused the largest flows on record in four basins. Mid-winter rain-on-snow should be distinguished from rain-on-spring-snowmelt because of differences in seasonal timing, the relative contributions of rain vs. snowmelt, and the projected effects of forest harvest. The effects of mixed flood populations on the flood-frequency curve varied from basin to basin. Annual maximum daily flows could not be reliably predicted from rainfall and snowmelt data.     

A New Flood Index for Use in Evaluation of Local Flood Severity: A Case Study of Small Ungauged Catchments in Korea1

Ahn, Jae Hyun and Hyun Il Choi, 2013. A New Flood Index for Use in Evaluation of Local Flood Severity: A Case Study of Small Ungauged Catchments in Korea. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 49(1): 1‐14. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12025 Abstract: The aim of this article is to develop a new index measuring the severity of floods in small ungauged catchments for initial local flood information by the regression analysis between the new flooding index and rainfall patterns. Although a rapid local flood caused by heavy storm in a short period of time is now one of common natural disasters worldwide, such a sudden and violent hydrologic event is difficult to forecast. As local flooding rises rapidly with little or no advance warning, the key to local flood forecasting is to quickly identify when and where local flooding above a threshold is likely to occur. The new flooding index to characterize local floods is measured by the three normalized relative severity factors for the flood magnitude ratio, the rising curve gradient, and the flooding duration time, quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs. The new flooding index implemented for the two selected small ungauged catchments in the Korean Peninsula shows a very high correlation with logarithm of the 2‐h maximum rainfall depth. This study proposes 30 mm of rainfall in a 2‐h period as a basin‐specific guidance of precaution for the incipient local flooding in the two study catchments. It is expected that the best‐fit regression equation between the new flooding index and a certain rainfall rate can provide preliminary observations, the flood threshold, and severity information, for use in a local flood alert system in small ungauged catchments. Editor's note: This paper is part of a featured series on Korean Hydrology. The series addresses the need for a new paradigm of river and watershed management for Korea due to climate and land use changes.     

The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska1

Clilverd, Hannah M., Daniel M. White, Amy C. Tidwell, and Michael A. Rawlins, 2011. The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1228–1240. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00569.x Abstract: The potential impacts of climate change on northern groundwater supplies were examined at a fractured‐marble mountain aquifer near Nome, Alaska. Well water surface elevations (WSE) were monitored from 2004‐2009 and analyzed with local meteorological data. Future aquifer response was simulated with the Pan‐Arctic Water Balance Model (PWBM) using forcings (air temperature and precipitation) derived from fifth‐generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global circulation model climate scenarios for extreme and modest increases in greenhouse gases. We observed changes in WSE due to the onset of spring snowmelt, low intensity and high intensity rainfall events, and aquifer head recession during the winter freeze period. Observed WSE and snow depth compared well with PWBM‐simulated groundwater recharge and snow storage. Using ECHAM5‐simulated increases in mean annual temperature of 4‐8°C by 2099, the PWBM predicted that by 2099 later freeze‐up and earlier snowmelt will decrease seasonal snow cover by one to two months. Annual evapotranspiration and precipitation are predicted to increase 27‐40% (55‐81 mm) and 33‐42% (81‐102 mm), respectively, with the proportion of snowfall in annual precipitation decreasing on average 9‐25% (p < 0.05). The amount of snowmelt is not predicted to change significantly by 2099; however, a decreasing trend is evident from 2060 in the extreme ECHAM5 greenhouse gas scenario. Increases in effective precipitation were predicted to be great enough to sustain sufficient groundwater recharge.     

Stakeholders' views towards flood risk management in the Paz River catchment area of Guatemala and El Salvador

The river Paz is a transboundary river that flows through Guatemala and El Salvador. Its frequent floods endanger the lives and livelihoods of downstream communities. Attempts have previously been made to develop flood management programmes for this watershed. However, these approaches were generally made by high-level governmental institutions with few if any contributions from floodplain communities and other stakeholders. Recognising that public consultation is a key aspect in flood management programmes, we intend in this work to extract different stakeholders' views regarding current and future flooding and flood management programmes in the Paz River basin. This is achieved using Future Scenarios Workshops with a projected time horizon of 30 years. The exercise was expected to identify consensual short- and medium–long-term flood management strategies for the Paz River basin that draws on input from inhabitants of flood-prone areas and other stakeholders.     

Drivers of future streamflow changes in watersheds across the Northeastern United States

Accurate projections of streamflow, which have implications for flooding, water resources, hydropower, and ecosystems, are critical to climate change adaptation and require an understanding of streamflow sensitivity to climate drivers. The northeastern United States has experienced a dramatic increase in extreme precipitation over the past 25 years; however, the effects of these changes, as well as changes in other drivers of streamflow, remain unclear. Here, we use a random forest model forced with a regional climate model to examine historical and future streamflow dynamics of four watersheds across the Northeast. We find that streamflow in the cold season (November–May) is primarily driven by 3-day rainfall and antecedent wetness (Antecedent Precipitation Index) in three rainfall-dominant watersheds, and 30-day rainfall, antecedent wetness, and 30-day snowmelt in the fourth, more snowmelt-dominated watershed. In the warm season (June–October), streamflow is driven by antecedent wetness and rainfall in all watersheds. By the end of the century (2070–2099), cold season streamflow depends on the importance placed on snow in the machine learning model, with changes ranging from −7% (with snow) to +40% (without snow) in a single watershed. Simulated future warm season streamflow increases in two watersheds (56% and 193%) due to increased precipitation and antecedent soil wetness, but decreases in the other two watersheds (−6% and −27%) due to reduced precipitation.     

Defining the Diurnal Pattern of Snowmelt Using a Beta Distribution Function

Snow is an important component of the hydrologic cycle for many regions worldwide. In addition to vital water resources, snowmelt can be important for forest ecosystem dynamics and flood risk. However, standard design events in the United States lack a design snowmelt event, including only precipitation events, though snowmelt has been shown to be larger than rainfall. In this article, we present a method using hourly snow water equivalent data to develop and test a function for representing the diurnal pattern of snowmelt. A two‐parameter beta distribution function is modified for the purposes of this study and found to fit the pattern of snowmelt well with a root mean squared error of 0.008. Soil moisture sensors were additionally utilized to assess the timing of the snowmelt water outflow from the base of the snowpack that supports the shape of the function, but suggests that the timing of losses recorded on snow pillows lag as much as 3 h. Further testing of the function showed the shape of the function to be accurate. The methods developed and tested in this paper can be applied for design purposes comparing snowmelt and rainfall events or to improve hydrological models investigating processes such as streamflow or groundwater recharge.     

FACTORS AFFECTING SPRING RUNOFF ON TWO FORESTED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT Spring runoff from two forested watersheds in northern Minnesota is a function of annual snowfall, soil water recharge, and water supply rates. A drainage basin with a clay soil and a hardwood overstory had greater snowmelt and water supply rates than another drainage basin with a sandy soil and conifer overstory. The average soil water recharge rate for the clay soil was 28 percent less than for the sandy soil. The lower recharge rate of the clay soil resulted in spring runoff which averaged 40 percent of water supplied during the three year study while an average of two percent was produced on the sandy soil. Soil frost which affected soil water recharge varied between soil types and was influenced by amount of soil water storage and snow cover.     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOIL MOISTURE DYNAMICS ON A SEMIARID PONDEROSA PINE HILLSLOPE1

ABSTRACT: Detailed measurements of soil moisture and ET in semiarid forest environments have not been widely reported in the literature. In this study, soil moisture and water balance components were measured over a four‐year period on a semiarid ponderosa pine hillslope, with evapotranspiration (ET) determined as the residual of measured precipitation, runoff, and change in soil moisture storage. ET accounts for approximately 95 percent of the water budget and has a distinctly bimodal annual pattern, with peaks occurring after spring snowmelt and during the late summer monsoon season, periods that coincide with high soil moisture. Weekly growing season ET rates determined by the hillslope water balance are found to be invariably below calculated potential rates. Normalized ET rates are linearly correlated (r²= 0.62) with soil moisture; therefore, a simple linear relation is proposed. Growing season soil moisture dynamics were modeled based on this relation. Results are in fair agreement (r²= 0.63) with the observed soil moisture data over the four growing seasons; however, for two dry summers with little surface runoff, much better results (r² > 0.90) were obtained.     

THE FLOOD HAZARD AND DYNAMICS OF THE URBAN RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET1

ABSTRACT: Literature on the flood hazard/residential land market relationship is full of contradictory findings, many of which are counter-intuitive to the belief that flooding has a negative impact on house prices. This research advances a conceptual framework through which these relationships might be re-examined. Based on the expected utility model, the theoretical framework integrates the economic notion of capitalization with spatial and temporal characteristics of the flood hazard. Four communities with different flood regimes are used to test the effect of flooding on the residential real estate market. Results show that, (1) there is an identifiable relationship between characteristics of the flood hazard and changes in house values; (2) the length of the recovery period is dependent on characteristics and expectations of flooding, attributes of the real estate market, and availability of capital to fuel recovery; and (3) dynamics of the urban market and spatial extent of the flood hazard influence these relationships. Further research is now necessary to examine these findings under different spatial, temporal, hydrological, and socio-economic conditions.     

Hydrologic Calibration and Validation of SWAT in a Snow‐Dominated Rocky Mountain Watershed,Montana, U.S.A.1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been applied successfully in temperate environments but little is known about its performance in the snow‐dominated, forested, mountainous watersheds that provide much of the water supply in western North America. To address this knowledge gap, we configured SWAT to simulate the streamflow of Tenderfoot Creek (TCSWAT). Located in central Montana, TCSWAT represents a high‐elevation watershed with ～85% coniferous forest cover where more than 70% of the annual precipitation falls as snow, and runoff comes primarily from spring snowmelt. Model calibration using four years of measured daily streamflow, temperature, and precipitation data resulted in a relative error (RE) of 2% for annual water yield estimates, and mean paired deviations (Dv) of 36 and 31% and Nash‐Sutcliffe (NS) efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.86 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. Model validation was conducted using an additional four years of data and the performance was similar to the calibration period, with RE of 4% for annual water yields, Dv of 43% and 32%, and NS efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.76 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. An objective, regression‐based model invalidation procedure also indicated that the model was validated for the overall simulation period. Seasonally, SWAT performed well during the spring and early summer snowmelt runoff period, but was a poor predictor of late summer and winter base flow. The calibrated model was most sensitive to snowmelt parameters, followed in decreasing order of influence by the surface runoff lag, ground water, soil, and SCS Curve Number parameter sets. Model sensitivity to the surface runoff lag parameter reflected the influence of frozen soils on runoff processes. Results indicated that SWAT can provide reasonable predictions of annual, monthly, and daily streamflow from forested montane watersheds, but further model refinements could improve representation of snowmelt runoff processes and performance during the base flow period in this environment.     

RIVERINE TRANSPORT OF NUTRIENTS AND DETRITUS TO THE APALACHICOLA BAY ESTUARY,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: The Applachicola River basin in northwest Florida covers an area of 3,100 square kilometers. Fifteen percent of the area is a dense bottomland hardwood forest which is periodically flooded. The annual leaf-litter fall from the flood-plain trees is a potential source of nutrients and detritus which eventually can flow into Apalachicola Bay. Transport of such material is dependent on the periodic inundation of the flood plain. The U.S. Geological Survey Apalachicola Rim Quality Assessment measured a total organic carbon flux of 2.1 × 10⁵ metric tons during the one-year period from June 3, 1979, to June 2,1980. Fluxes of total nitrogen and phosphorus during the same year were 2.1 × lo⁴ and 1.7 × lo³ metric tons, respectively. Flood characteirstics, such as prior hydrologic conditions, extent, and timing, are important in determining the amount and forms of materials transported. The 1980 spring flood produced a fourfold discharge increase over the annual mean outflow of 800 cubic meters per second. Nutrient concentrations varied little with discharge, but the 86-day spring flood accounted for 53, 60, 48, and 56 percent of the annual flux of total organic carbon, particulate organic carbon, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus, respectively. In 1980, the flood peaks, rather than the rise or recession, accounted for maximum nutrient and detritus transport.