适应气候变化技术体系的集成创新机制

适应是应对气候变化的主要方式之一,适应技术体系的集成创新是适应气候变化行动的关键内容。在不同层面建立适应气候变化技术的集成创新机制,构建不同部门或区域适应气候变化技术的集成创新体系是我国实现有效应对气候变化的必要途径。本文解析了"适应气候变化技术体系的集成创新"的内涵,即不同适应主体和部门对各种适应技术进行选择、优化、配置,相互之间以最合理的结构形式结合在一起,形成一个由适宜要素组成的、优势互补的、匹配的有机体系,从而使适应技术体系的整体功能发生质变的一种自主创新过程。集成创新可以使适应气候变化不同主体或部门的资源、技术、能力等实现重新组合并且优化,进而增强适应气候变化的效果。提出了我国适应气候变化技术体系集成创新机制,包括:适应气候变化技术的整合集成机制、适应气候变化技术的科技创新机制、适应气候变化主体的组织机制、适应气候变化部门的协同合作机制,以及适应气候变化的资金机制。整合是适应气候变化技术实现集成的重要手段,科技创新是适应技术创新研发的主体力量,组织机制是实现集成创新的体制基础,协同是实现适应技术集成创新的关键保障,资金机制是集成创新的物质基础。最后指出应对气候变化的适应技术体系需要充分发挥集成创新的力量,从不同层面的适应主体的组织机制开始,充分整合适应气候变化技术体系,发挥不同适应部门的协同机制,建立完善的国家适应气候变化科技创新机制,同时合理利用资金机制,从而建立完善的适应气候变化技术的集成创新机制。     

农业领域应对气候变化的适应措施与对策

农业是对气候变化反应最为敏感和脆弱的领域之一,任何程度的气候变化都会给农业生产及其相关过程带来潜在的或显著的影响,而提高适应能力是农业领域应对气候变化的主要对策。气候变化对农业领域的主要影响包括:气候变暖使我国年平均气温上升,农业生产所需的热量资源都有不同程度的增加,延长了气候生长季,气候变化对农业气候资源产生影响;气候变化使我国的种植制度和农业布局发生改变,导致种植区和种植制度分界线北移;气候变化对农作物产量和品质产生影响;气候变化还对农业旱涝及病虫害等气候灾害及粮食安全和农产品贸易产生影响。中国幅员辽阔,受气候变化影响的农业领域区域差异特征显著,开展适应措施与对策研究已成为农业领域科学应对气候变化的重要内容。当前主要适应技术措施包括:调整农业种植制度和布局;选育优良农作物品种;加强农业气候灾害防控;加强农业基础设施建设等。在此基础上,本文分析了农业领域在适应气候变化中存在适应技术薄弱分散,尚未建立完善的适应技术清单;评估方法中缺少对适应技术的成本效益分析以及资金和政策障碍等问题。提出将来应对气候变化中农业领域适应技术措施的发展趋势和方向,主要包括通过对气候变化影响的科学系统研究,减少不确定性,提升农业在全球气候谈判中地位;建立适应技术清单和技术集成体系以及建立科学选择和评估适应技术的方法步骤,在一定程度上通过增强适应能力来减轻气候变化的不利影响,以促进我国农业的可持续发展。     

国际气候变化科学和评估对中国应对气候变化的启示

科学研究和评估工作推动了国际应对气候变化进程,并加大了各国行动力度。更多的科学证据表明人类活动是造成全球气候变暖的主要原因;气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性研究范围不断扩展和深化,区域甚至次国家级层面的问题受到高度关注;2℃温控目标的实现已然成为共识,政策协调与集成及相关政策在不同领域的协同作用成为研究的热点。未来中国应对气候变化需要在四个方面进一步开展研究和采取行动:1加强不同学科和领域的研究工作,围绕与实现温升控制1.5℃、土地利用、海洋以及城市相关问题开展专题研究。2加强国内绿色低碳转型和国际谈判的战略研究。3构建气候服务体系,以灾害风险管理为抓手,提升气候变化适应水平。4通过构建能源互联网实现能源变革,加快推进国内能源革命和经济发展的低碳转型。     

应对气候变化的适应技术框架研究

减缓和适应是应对气候变化的两个重要方面,适应则更为现实和迫切,而适应技术的正确选择与表述是应对气候变化研究的关键内容。本研究以易受气候变化影响的农业、林业、水资源、海岸带、生态系统以及人类健康等领域为对象,在分析各领域受气候变化的影响危害及其适应技术响应基础上,初步总结归纳出11项应对气候变化的适应技术表达方式,主要包括预警、工程研发、动态监测、评估、灾害防控、适应空间、适应长效性、模型分析、重大工程、行业标准和规范以及社会影响与宣传等类型的技术表达方式;在此基础上建立应对气候变化的适应技术选择框架,对各领域适应技术进行初步归类;最后提出应对气候变化的各类型适应技术选择的基本操作步骤。研究结果可以为未来适应技术清单的统一归类和选择提供理论参考和技术依据。     

中国水资源管理适应气候变化的研究综述

以全球变暖为特征的气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的最重要议题之一。气候变化对水资源管理的影响是具有重要学术价值的新兴研究方向,目前的重点研究领域主要包括:气候变化背景下水资源综合管理方式与集成研究,气候变化下水资源适应性管理机制,中国面临的水资源均衡性管理,公众参与水资源适应性管理的政策制定,对减缓措施与水资源可持续发展的认识。主要的研究方法包括:适应气候变化的定性分析方法(多尺度适应综合分析方法)、成本效益分析方法等。适应性管理是目前应对气候变化伴随的不确定性问题的有效策略,未来应在分析中国各流域水资源不确定性问题的基础上,建立气候变化情景下适应气候变化的水资源适应性管理体制机制。     

中国气候变化影响、风险与适应研究新进展

本文基于气候变化影响与适应领域的研究,重点聚焦国家第三次气候变化评估报告发布以来的最新成果,从全国尺度评估气候变化对我国社会经济可持续发展重点领域的影响,揭示气候变化对各重点领域影响的时空格局及区域差异,预估未来气候变化风险,为国家应对气候变化宏观政策制定和促进社会经济可持续发展提供科技支撑。本文评估了重点领域的影响和风险、重大工程和脆弱区的影响和风险、综合风险与适应三个方面,分析了气候变化对农业、水资源、海洋与海岸带、自然生态系统、人体健康和环境、重大工程、脆弱区的影响与风险及区域综合风险和适应的最新研究进展。气候变暖在改变区域水热资源分配的同时,对农业、水资源、海洋与海岸带、人体健康等相关敏感领域和区域产生了十分明显影响,并且将在未来进一步加剧这些领域和区域的风险,特别是农牧交错带和黄土高原风险较为突出,同时气候变化将对青藏铁路、南水北调等重大工程产生不利影响。我国在适应气候变化领域战略研究和实践上有了长足的进步,提出了有序适应气候变化的理念并设计了实施路线图,但是在综合风险和适应领域的研究整体上还比较薄弱,综合风险和适应研究仍无法有效支撑气候变化应对工作。气候变化在某种程度上带来气候资源,对自然系统和社会经济的负面影响明显。研究再次表明,气候变化利弊共存,总体上弊大于利。     

国际气候变化适应政策发展动态及其对中国的启示

回顾《联合国气候变化框架公约》下国际气候变化适应政策以及欧盟及其主要成员国、亚太地区主要发达国家、新兴经济体国家和最不发达国家气候变化适应政策的发展历程,并与我国应对气候变化相关政策的发展动态进行对比分析,总结可供我国借鉴的经验和做法。发现进入21世纪以来适应在国际应对气候变化行动中已经获得了与减缓同等的重要性。《联合国气候变化框架公约》下与气候变化适应相关的谈判议题已经从初期单纯关注资金及技术开发和转让机制发展到实施具体的适应计划和行动,主要发达国家和发展中国家2006年以来密集出台了一系列专门的或与气候变化适应相关的政策,包括法律、框架、战略、规划、行动方案等,最不发达国家也在《联合国气候变化框架公约》资金机制的支持下相继开展了《国家适应行动方案》和《国家适应规划》的编制工作,因此制定国家或区域层面的宏观政策以规划和指导气候变化适应行动已成为必然趋势。从2007年开始,我国陆续在国家、地区和部门层次上制定了与气候变化适应相关的政策,但是这些政策在表现形式、制定依据、战略定位、内容构成以及实施机制等方面还存在不足,包括缺乏专门的战略或规划、相关研究基础相对薄弱、政策的国际视野不足、政策落实的责任不明确、缺乏相应的监控和评估机制等。建议我国进一步加强气候变化预测、影响评估、脆弱性和风险评价技术研发,开展气候变化适应政策制定、影响评估和实施机制的方法学和技术研究,抓紧制定专门的气候变化适应战略或规划,并重视其国际视野和战略定位。     

应对气候变化技术的文献计量分析

气候变化对自然环境和经济社会发展的影响日益加剧,威胁人类可持续发展的进程。进行应对气候变化技术研究不仅可以加深人类对于气候变化科学的认知,而且可以为未来缓解和适应气候变化的政策和措施提供重要依据。本文利用文献计量方法对1988—2018年来自Web of Science数据库中应对气候变化技术研究的科学文献进行了系统的数据统计与分析,通过气候变化研究的发文历程、主要研究机构分布、研究主题的发展与演变等方面的数据揭示了现阶段全球应对气候变化技术的总体科研状况,并一定程度上预估了其未来发展趋势。主要研究结果表明:(1)在所有研究国家当中,美国和英国在应对气候变化技术领域长期处于领先地位,而中国虽然发文量和H指数相对靠前,但篇均被引频次较低,需要注重整体发文质量的提高。(2)基金资助论文在论文总数中所占比例越来越大,截止到2018年,其比例已经占到了75. 28%。(3)全球发文主要机构中,美国仍然占据了首位,而中国的主要发文机构中仅中国科学院发文量、H指数、篇均被引频次较高,中国其他发文机构还需进一步提升科研实力和在应对气候变化领域的影响力。(4)在主要研究方向梳理中,中国和全球的主要研究方向基本一致,但工程学、技术与科学和能源燃料等研究方向在中国的起步较晚、发展较慢,还需要继续加大投入,向世界先进水平靠拢。(5)从关键词随时间的变化可以看出,生物质技术、CCS技术和太阳能、风能、氢能源等可再生能源技术是应对气候变化的关键性技术,也会是未来全球的主要发展方向。     

适应领域应对气候变化的重点领域与技术需求研究北大核心CSCDCSSCI

基于三次联合国气候变化技术需求评估报告,分析了当前全球适应领域应对气候变化的重点领域与技术需求,同时也确定了不同地区的重点领域与技术需求。研究发现:①在适应领域,几乎所有国家考虑的优先重点领域为农业和渔业领域,其次是海岸带管理领域、水资源领域以及卫生健康领域。适应领域的优先技术需求数量与重点领域一致,表现为农林渔业技术需求数量最多,其次是海岸带管理、水资源技术以及卫生健康类技术。优先技术需求主要集中在农林渔业领域的作物管理、高效灌溉、土地管理和改善畜牧业等,其中开发和使用耐旱/耐高温作物品种等是需求量最大的技术。②不同区域重点领域表现出的侧重点不同,农业和林业领域是所有区域需求最多的重点领域,非洲国家将水资源领域列为优先重点领域,亚太国家、拉美国家和加勒比地区关注水资源和卫生健康领域,最不发达国家需求为农林现代化,小岛屿国家都以应对海平面上升和粮食安全问题的技术作为主要需求,而欧洲和独联体国家对各个领域的需求度较为平均。③在适应领域所有国家都确定了优先技术发展和转让的障碍,包括经济和金融、政策,法律和规章,体制和组织能力以及技术壁垒等。而不同区域在缺乏或不充分获得财政资源和信息障碍方面具有共性,拉丁美洲和加勒比国家报告了与传统和习惯有关的障碍,东欧国家确定了与优先技术的高生产成本和技术的财务可行性有关的障碍。未来重点领域与优先技术发展主要趋向于新型农业的栽培技术、水资源节约、海水淡化技术等,这些重点领域与技术发展需求可为我国加强应对气候变化国际合作提供参考。     

中国应对气候变化技术清单研究

应对气候变化技术清单(简称"气候技术清单")的编制对于促进技术研发、示范、推广具有重要引导作用,对中国加强生态文明建设、实现碳达峰与碳中和目标、提升全球气候治理能力具有重要意义。文章首先对已有气候技术清单进行分类梳理,提出现有技术推广清单、技术需求清单、未来技术清单的划分框架;以此为基础集成不同方法和信息,提出了中国应对气候变化现有技术推广清单、中国减缓气候变化技术需求清单、中国应对气候变化关键核心技术清单、中国应对气候变化未来技术清单共4份技术清单,并从技术成熟度、减排成本、减排潜力、经济效益、社会影响、不确定性等方面对部分核心技术进行了分析。研究认为:中国重点行业和关键部门均已有较为成熟的减缓/适应技术作为实现应对气候变化目标的支撑,多部门协作推广气候友好型技术的体系已经建立且在发挥积极作用;气候技术需求集中在传统技术装备升级改造类技术、可再生能源技术和管理决策类支撑技术,关键核心技术集中在3大领域12个亟须突破的技术方向;关乎碳达峰、碳中和目标的深度减排/零碳排放技术和地球工程类技术(CDR和SRM)在未来全球减排格局中的作用备受关注,对其综合成本效益、技术融合方向、技术成熟度以及道德伦理、生态影响等方面不确定性程度的判断,关乎着国家技术战略方向。同时,针对中长期技术部署、提升技术转化率、促进关键核心技术研发、形成技术清单协同更新与发布机制等国家应对气候变化创新体系的重要环节,从多个角度提出了相关政策建议。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

A general approach to transform a lake model for one radionuclide (radiocesium) to another (radiostrontium) and critical model tests using data for four Ural lakes contaminated by the fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for 137Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for 90Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with 90Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for 90Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments.