加拿大油气系统温室气体逃逸排放清单简述

油气系统温室气体逃逸排放是温室气体排放清单的重要组成部分。加拿大在清单中统一考虑了油气系统可能存在的温室气体排放源,因此清单中不仅包括了温室气体的逃逸排放(泄漏、排空),还考虑了能源燃烧中的气体排放,所考虑的温室气体种类既包括甲烷,也包括二氧化碳。采用的是政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第三层次方法(Tier3),即设备清单法、操作时间法和活动水平法三种计算方法,详细地将排放源分类进行估算。该国对数据的管理、质量控制和质量评估、不确定性分析以及在如何保证数据的持续性方面的作法都值得我们学习和借鉴。     

Climate targets and comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions trading

In June 1992 a Framework on Climate Change Convention was signed in Rio de Janeiro, calling for the control of greenhouse gases, notably in the industrialized countries. Its formulation allows for joint implementation of measures to reach emission targets for greenhouse gases. Such joint implementation covering all greenhouse gases could form the first step towards a system of comprehensive emissions trading. This paper addresses both advantages and disadvantages of comprehensive emissions trading across different gases, sinks and sources. It concludes that in addition to carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, the inclusion of biotic carbon emissions and selected sources of methane is attractive from both the economic and environmental viewpoint. The uncertainties associated with emissions can be overcome by requiring a thorough review of trade proposals by a broad-based international supervisory body, utilizing a consistent methodology such as that being developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Finally, the paper addresses the central objective of the Climate Convention, which implicity sets a limit to greenhouse gases emissions and thus provides a guideline for the total amount of permits that may be made available in a tradeable permit system.     

深圳市南山区碳平衡测算研究

运用《省级温室气体清单编制指南》、《IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》和相关文献推荐方法,利用南山区能源消费数据、工业产品量、废弃物处理量、森林面积和海洋面积等基础数据,对南山区能源利用过程、工业生产过程和产品使用、废弃物处理等3大类碳源温室气体排放量以及区域森林(包括湿地)、城市绿地和海域等3大类碳汇储存量进行了测算,计算表明南山区年碳排放总量达到756.17万t,该测算为南山区未来区域碳减排提供基础数据依据。     

云南省城市生活垃圾处理温室气体排放特征

根据《IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》和《省级温室气体清单编制指南》方法,建立2018年云南省16个州(市)城市生活垃圾处理温室气体排放清单,包括生活垃圾填埋和焚烧处理过程,并分析了温室气体排放的时间分布、空间分布和影响因素等。结果表明;(1)2018年云南省生活垃圾处理温室气体总排放量为536万t CO_2当量,各州(市)间排放量差异明显,滇中经济发达地区和滇东北人口密度较高地区排放量明显高于滇西北地区。(2)2005—2018年,云南省生活垃圾处理排放的温室气体量增长了191.3%,温室气体排放组成发生明显变化,CH4比重不断下降,CO_2比重不断增加。(3)城镇人口数量、生活垃圾处理量、经济发展水平与温室气体排放量显著相关,其中人口数量更为明显。     

有色金属行业CO2排放估算方法研究

通过对国内外有色金属行业温室气体排放估算方法研究现状的分析,将联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)温室气体排放清单指南、国际有色行业协会和环境科学研究中的一些常用算法,总结归纳应用于有色金属行业温室气体的排放量估算,从估算方法和结果上分析各种方法的优缺点和使用条件。以原铝生产CO2排放估算为例,对有色金属温室气体排放进行实证分析,为有色金属行业温室气体排放估算提供参选方法,促进有色金属工业的节能减排。     

A reappraisal of WRI's estimates of greenhouse gas emissions

Excessive emissions of certain trace gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide and chlorofluorocarbons are likely to result in global warming due to increased concentration of these greenhouse gases (GHGs). Therefore, measures to control GHG emissions are essential and the current international debate is on how to arrive at optimal GHG limitation strategies. To set emission targets or to distribute the burden of costs of various control measures, it is necessary to identify the major emitters. The World Resources Institute has assessed countrywide contributions to global GHG emissions for 1987. This paper disagrees with the basic approach adopted by WRI because it fails to apportion sinks on a logical basis by keeping in mind equity considerations; it does not account for the residence time of different GHGs; and it uses unreliable and outdated data for estimating the emissions. Using recent and reliable data for India and Brazil as well as the IPCC global warming potential for various GHGs, the shares in global emissions have been recalculated. The paper concludes that if only current emissions are considered there is considerable bias against those countries which are latecomers to the process of industrialization.     

有色金属行业CO2排放估算方法研究

通过对国内外有色金属行业温室气体排放估算方法研究现状的分析，将联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）温室气体排放清单指南、国际有色行业协会和环境科学研究中的一些常用算法，总结归纳应用于有色金属行业温室气体的排放量估算，从估算方法和结果上分析各种方法的优缺点和使用条件。以原铝生产CO2排放估算为例，对有色金属温室气体排放进行实证分析，为有色金属行业温室气体排放估算提供参选方法，促进有色金属工业的节能减排。     

DAYCENT national-scale simulations of nitrous oxide emissions from cropped soils in the United States

Until recently, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission factor methodology, based on simple empirical relationships, has been used to estimate carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes for regional and national inventories. However, the 2005 USEPA greenhouse gas inventory includes estimates of N2O emissions from cultivated soils derived from simulations using DAYCENT, a process-based biogeochemical model. DAYCENT simulated major U.S. crops at county-level resolution and IPCC emission factor methodology was used to estimate emissions for the approximately 14% of cropped land not simulated by DAYCENT. The methodology used to combine DAYCENT simulations and IPCC methodology to estimate direct and indirect N2O emissions is described in detail. Nitrous oxide emissions from simulations of presettlement native vegetation were subtracted from cropped soil N2O to isolate anthropogenic emissions. Meteorological data required to drive DAYCENT were acquired from DAYMET, an algorithm that uses weather station data and accounts for topography to predict daily temperature and precipitation at 1-km2 resolution. Soils data were acquired from the State Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO). Weather data and dominant soil texture class that lie closest to the geographical center of the largest cluster of cropped land in each county were used to drive DAYCENT. Land management information was implemented at the agricultural-economic region level, as defined by the Agricultural Sector Model. Maps of model-simulated county-level crop yields were compared with yields estimated by the USDA for quality control. Combining results from DAYCENT simulations of major crops and IPCC methodology for remaining cropland yielded estimates of approximately 109 and approximately 70 Tg CO2 equivalents for direct and indirect, respectively, mean annual anthropogenic N2O emissions for 1990-2003.     

Handling uncertainty through adaptiveness in planning approaches: comparing adaptive delta management and the water diplomacy framework

Planners and water managers seek to be adaptive to handle uncertainty through the use of planning approaches. In this paper, we study what type of adaptiveness is proposed and how this may be operationalized in planning approaches to adequately handle different uncertainties. We took a comparative case study approach to study two planning approaches: the water diplomacy framework (WDF) and adaptive delta management (ADM). We found that the approaches differ in their conceptualization of uncertainty and show that different types of adaptiveness are used in the approaches. While WDF builds on collaborative adaptive management as a set of ongoing adjustments and continuous learning to handle uncertainty, ADM deliberately attempts to anticipate future adaptations through a set of tools which allows for seizing opportunities and avoiding lock-in and lock-out mechanisms. We conclude that neither of the approaches is fully able to account for different uncertainties. Both approaches may benefit from specific insights in what uncertainty and adaptiveness entail for the development of water management plans.     

Agricultural soil greenhouse gas emissions: a review of national inventory methods

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to submit national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, together with information on methods used in estimating their emissions. Currently agricultural activities contribute a significant portion (approximately 20%) of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, and agricultural soils have been identified as one of the main GHG source categories within the agricultural sector. However, compared to many other GHG sources, inventory methods for soils are relatively more complex and have been implemented only to varying degrees among member countries. This review summarizes and evaluates the methods used by Annex 1 countries in estimating CO2 and N2O emissions in agricultural soils. While most countries utilize the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default methodology, several Annex 1 countries are developing more advanced methods that are tailored for specific country circumstances. Based on the latest national inventory reporting, about 56% of the Annex 1 countries use IPCC Tier 1 methods, about 26% use Tier 2 methods, and about 18% do not estimate or report N2O emissions from agricultural soils. More than 65% of the countries do not report CO2 emissions from the cultivation of mineral soils, organic soils, or liming, and only a handful of countries have used country-specific, Tier 3 methods. Tier 3 methods usually involve process-based models and detailed, geographically specific activity data. Such methods can provide more robust, accurate estimates of emissions and removals but require greater diligence in documentation, transparency, and uncertainty assessment to ensure comparability between countries. Availability of detailed, spatially explicit activity data is a major constraint to implementing higher tiered methods in many countries.     

Improving National-Scale Carbon Stock Inventories Using Knowledge on Land Use History

National-scale inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) and forest floor carbon (FFC) stocks have a high uncertainty. Inventories are often based on the interpolation of sampled information, often using a number of covariables to help such interpolation. The rationale for the choice of these covariables is not always documented, despite the fact that many local-scale studies have identified the factors explaining spatial variability of SOC and FFC stocks. These studies indicate, among others the importance of long-term land use history. Despite this, information on the effects of land use history has never been used to explain variability of carbon stocks in national-scale inventories. We designed an alternative method to improve national-scale inventories of SOC and FCC for the Dutch sand area that takes stock of the findings of detailed case studies. Determinants for SOC and FFC stocks derived from landscape-scale case studies were used to map national-scale spatial variability and to calculate national totals. The resulting national-scale spatial distribution was compared with the SOC stock map from the current Dutch greenhouse gas inventory. Using land use history to explain SOC variability decreased the error of the SOC stock estimate in 60 % of the area. The error in FFC stocks decreased in half of the forest area after including soil fertility, tree species, and forest age as explanatory factors. Estimates with reduced uncertainty will make land use and land management a more attractive and acceptable mitigation option to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases for the LULUCF sector.     

我国炼化企业温室气体减排及CDM项目开展情况分析

我国炼化企业是高耗能高污染企业,温室气体排放量大而分散,减排潜力巨大。目前我国炼化企业比较重视废气的治理,如SOx,对于温室气体减排工作的研究投入力度相对较小,CDM项目很少且主要集中于N2O减排CDM项目。考虑到第一承诺期结束以后我国可能需要承担减排任务,单纯N2O减排将不能满足我国的温室气体减排需求。因此,我国炼化企业需要开展CO2减排技术研究。同时从节能减排及CO2资源化利用等方面对我国炼化企业进行分析,提出我国炼化企业节能减排措施,为我国炼化企业CO2减排提供理论依据。     

Spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for multicriteria-based vulnerability assessment

This research analyses the application of spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for GIS (Geographic Information System) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) within a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment regarding flooding in the Salzach river catchment in Austria. The research methodology is based on a spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of GIS-CDA for an assessment of the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. The main objective of this research is to demonstrate how a unified approach of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can be applied to minimise the associated uncertainty within each dimension of the vulnerability assessment. The methodology proposed for achieving this objective is composed of four main steps. The first step is computing criteria weights using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In the second step, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to calculate the uncertainties associated with AHP weights. In the third step, the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is employed in the form of a model-independent method of output variance decomposition, in which the variability of the different vulnerability assessments is apportioned to every criterion weight, generating one first-order (S) and one total effect (ST) sensitivity index map per criterion weight. Finally, in the fourth step, an ordered weighted averaging method is applied to model the final vulnerability maps. The results of this research demonstrate the robustness of spatially explicit GSA for minimising the uncertainty associated with GIS-MCDA models. Based on these results, we conclude that applying the variance-based GSA enables assessment of the importance of each input factor for the results of the GIS-MCDA method, both spatially and statistically, thus allowing us to introduce and recommend GIS-based GSA as a useful methodology for minimising the uncertainty of GIS-MCDA.     

Estimation and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Methane Emissions from Agriculture in China

Estimating and analyzing the temporal and spatial patterns of methane emissions from agriculture (MEA) will help China formulate mitigation and adaptation strategies for the nation’s agricultural sector. Based on the Tier 2 method presented in the 2006 guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and on existing reports, this article presents a systematic estimation of MEA in China from 1990 to 2006, with a particular emphasis on trends and spatial distribution. Results from our study indicate that China’s MEA rose from 16.37 Tg yr⁻¹ in 1990 to 19.31 Tg yr⁻¹ in 2006, with an average annual increase of 1.04%. Over the study period, while emissions from field burning of crop residues remained rather low, those from rice cultivation and from livestock typically decreased and increased, respectively, showing extremely opposite trends that chiefly resulted from changes in the cultivated areas for different rice seasons and changes in the populations of different animal species. Over the study period, China’s high-MEA regions shifted generally northward, chiefly as a result of reduced emissions from rice cultivation in most of China’s southern provinces and a substantial growth in emissions from livestock enteric fermentation in most of China’s northern, northeastern, and northwestern provinces. While this article provides significant information on estimates of MEA in China, it also includes some uncertainties in terms of estimating emissions from each source category. We conclude that China’s MEA will likely continue to increase in the future and recommend a demonstration study on MEA mitigation along the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. We further recommend enhanced data monitoring and statistical analysis, which will be essential for preparation of the national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory.     

油气田温室气体清单编制的作法

从温室气体统计边界确定、活动水平数据收集、排放量统计到编制形成石油企业需要的温室气体清单,介绍了石油企业温室气体清单编制中,做好编制工作的一些做法,为石油企业实现温室气体减排和控制工作奠定基础。     

美国湖泊调查评价技术及对我国湖泊生态环境管理的启示

自2006年起,美国环保署(EPA)在美国本土开展了两次湖泊生态状况调查和评估,从营养状态、生物健康和休闲娱乐的关键指标开展评估,旨在摸清美国湖泊生态环境现状和影响湖泊生态健康的关键胁迫因子。EPA逐步形成了涵盖水文、水质、水生生物等多重指标在内的湖泊调查评估体系,该体系已成为美国湖泊环境管理系统的重要组成部分,为湖泊环境保护和水生态系统恢复提供了有力支持。本文从清单建立、重点调查湖泊清单筛选、采样布点、监测指标、评估方法等方面系统研究总结美国湖泊调查评估的关键技术方法体系,以期为我国湖泊生态环境保护和环境管理工作提供借鉴。     

A project-based system for including farmers in the EU ETS

Farmers in the EU do not trade greenhouse gases under the Kyoto agreement. This is an empirical puzzle because agriculture is a significant contributor of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the EU and may harvest private net gains from trade. Furthermore, the US has strongly advocated land-use practices as 'the missing link' in past climate negotiations. We argue that farmers have relatively low marginal reduction costs and that consequences in terms of the effect on permit price and technology are overall positive in the EU Emission Trading System (ETS). Thus, we propose a project-based system for including the farming practices in the EU ETS that reduces the uncertainty from measuring emission reduction in this sector. The system encourages GHG reduction either by introducing a new and less polluting practice or by reducing the polluting activity. When doing so, farmers will receive GHG permits corresponding to the amount of reduction which can be stored for later use or sold in the EU ETS.     

Simulating solute transport in a structured field soil: uncertainty in parameter identification and predictions

Dual-permeability models have been developed to account for the significant effects of macropore flow on contaminant transport, but their use is hampered by difficulties in estimating the additional parameters required. Therefore, our objective was to evaluate data requirements for parameter identification for predictive modeling with the dual-permeability model MACRO. Two different approaches were compared: sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI) and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). We investigated six parameters controlling macropore flow and pesticide sorption and degradation, applying MACRO to a comprehensive field data set of bromide andbentazone [3-isopropyl-1H-2,1,3-benzothiadiazin-4(3H)-one-2,2dioxide] transport in a structured soil. The GLUE analyses of parameter conditioning for different combinations of observations showed that both resident and flux concentrations were needed to obtain highly conditioned and unbiased parameters and that observations of tracer transport generally improved the conditioning of macropore flow parameters. The GLUE "behavioral" parameter sets covered wider parameter ranges than the SUFI posterior uncertainty domains. Nevertheless, estimation uncertainty ranges defined by the 5th and 95th percentiles were similar and many simulations randomly sampled from the SUFI posterior uncertainty domains had negative model efficiencies (minimum of -3.2). This is because parameter correlations are neglected in SUFI and the posterior uncertainty domains were not always determined correctly. For the same reasons, uncertainty ranges for predictions of bentazone losses through drainflow for good agricultural practice in southern Sweden were 27% larger for SUFI compared with GLUE. Although SUFI proved to be an efficient parameter estimation tool, GLUE seems better suited as a method of uncertainty estimation for predictions.     

What is driving the EU burden-sharing agreement: Efficiency or equity?

Under the Kyoto Protocol the European Union agreed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 8 percent. The Burden-Sharing Agreement (BSA) redistributes the reduction target among the member states. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the BSA. To determine if cost efficiency was considered, marginal abatement costs (MACs) are first calculated based on an estimation of the directional output distance function using country production data for 1990-2000. MACs, together with equity indicators, are then regressed on the emission change targets. The main conclusion is that both efficiency and equity were important aspects considered in the settlement.     

Making framing of uncertainty in water management practice explicit by using a participant-structured approach

By now, the need for addressing uncertainty in the management of water resources is widely recognized, yet there is little expertise and experience how to effectively deal with uncertainty in practice. Uncertainties in water management practice so far are mostly dealt with intuitively or based on experience. That way decisions can be quickly taken but analytic processes of deliberate reasoning are bypassed. To meet the desire of practitioners for better guidance and tools how to deal with uncertainty more practice-oriented systematic approaches are needed. For that purpose we consider it important to understand how practitioners frame uncertainties. In this paper we present an approach where water managers developed criteria of relevance to understand and address uncertainties. The empirical research took place in the Doñana region of the Guadalquivir estuary in southern Spain making use of the method of card sorting. Through the card sorting exercise a broad range of criteria to make sense of and describe uncertainties was produced by different subgroups, which were then merged into a shared list of criteria. That way framing differences were made explicit and communication on uncertainty and on framing differences was enhanced. In that, the present approach constitutes a first step to enabling reframing and overcoming framing differences, which are important features on the way to robust decision-making. Moreover, the elaborated criteria build a basis for the development of more structured approaches to deal with uncertainties in water management practice.