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1.
We studied the ringlet butterfly (Aphantopus hyperantus) in an area of woodland in eastern England. A. hyperantus occurs in open fields, rides (grassy tracks), and glades within the woodland. Mark-recapture methods showed that exchange rates of adult A. hyperantus between fields and glades can be predicted better by distance-via-rides than by direct distance. Behavioral observations showed that A. hyperantus readily moved from glades into rides but rarely moved from glades into dense woodland. The rides are likely to be corridors that act as conduits between fields and glades. In the A. hyperantus system, connectivity could reduce local extinctions and increase rates of recolonization in the event of local extinction.  相似文献   

2.
Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150–200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat‐based effective distance metrics, least‐cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species‐specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum‐viable‐population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning. Desarrollo de Criterios de Conectividad Metapoblacional a Partir de Datos Genéticos y de Hábitat para Recuperar al Lobo Mexicano en Peligro de Extinción  相似文献   

3.
Yaari G  Ben-Zion Y  Shnerb NM  Vasseur DA 《Ecology》2012,93(5):1214-1227
Recent theory and experimental work in metapopulations and metacommunities demonstrates that long-term persistence is maximized when the rate at which individuals disperse among patches within the system is intermediate; if too low, local extinctions are more frequent than recolonizations, increasing the chance of regional-scale extinctions, and if too high, dynamics exhibit region-wide synchrony, and local extinctions occur in near unison across the region. Although common, little is known about how the size and topology of the metapopulation (metacommunity) affect this bell-shaped relationship between dispersal rate and regional persistence time. Using a suite of mathematical models, we examined the effects of dispersal, patch number, and topology on the regional persistence time when local populations are subject to demographic stochasticity. We found that the form of the relationship between regional persistence time and the number of patches is consistent across all models studied; however, the form of the relationship is distinctly different among low, intermediate, and high dispersal rates. Under low and intermediate dispersal rates, regional persistence times increase logarithmically and exponentially (respectively) with increasing numbers of patches, whereas under high dispersal, the form of the relationship depends on local dynamics. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the forms of these relationships, which give rise to the bell-shaped relationship between dispersal rate and persistence time, are a product of recolonization and the region-wide synchronization (or lack thereof) of population dynamics. Identifying such metapopulation attributes that impact extinction risk is of utmost importance for managing and conserving the earth's evermore fragmented populations.  相似文献   

4.
Metapopulation Dynamics and Amphibian Conservation   总被引:23,自引:0,他引:23  
Abstract: In many respects, amphibian spatial dynamics resemble classical metapopulation models, in which subpopulations in breeding ponds blink in and out of existence and extinction and colonization rates are functions of pond spatial arrangement. This "ponds-as-patches" view of amphibian spatial dynamics is useful in several respects. First, it highlights the importance of regional and landscape processes in determining local patterns of abundance. Second, it offers a straightforward, pond-based approach to monitoring and managing amphibian populations. For many species, however, the ponds-as-patches view may be an oversimplification and metapopulation structure may be more apparent than real. Changes in distribution may be caused by processes other than extinction and recolonization, and most extinctions probably result from deterministic factors, not stochastic processes. In addition, the effects of pond isolation appear to be important primarily in disturbed environments, and in many cases these isolation effects may be better explained by the distribution of terrestrial habitats than by the distribution of breeding ponds. These complications have important implications for both researchers and managers. For researchers, future efforts need to determine the mechanisms underlying patterns of abundance and distributional change and patterns in amphibian populations. For managers, effective conservation strategies must successfully balance metapopulation considerations with careful attention to local habitat quality. Furthermore, translocations and active management may be indispensable tools for conserving amphibians in landscapes containing multiple breeding ponds.  相似文献   

5.
Metapopulation Extinction Risk under Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbance   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
Abstract:  Recent extinction models generally show that spatial aggregation of habitat reduces overall extinction risk because sites emptied by local extinction are more rapidly recolonized. We extended such an investigation to include spatial structure in the disturbance regime. A spatially explicit metapopulation model was developed with a wide range of dispersal distances. The degree of aggregation of both habitat and disturbance pattern could be varied from a random distribution, through the intermediate case of a fractal distribution, all the way to complete aggregation (single block). Increasing spatial aggregation of disturbance generally increased extinction risk. The relative risk faced by populations in different landscapes varied greatly, depending on the disturbance regime. With random disturbance, the spatial aggregation of habitat reduced extinction risk, as in earlier studies. Where disturbance was spatially autocorrelated, however, this advantage was eliminated or reversed because populations in aggregated habitats are at risk of mass extinction from coarse-scale disturbance events. The effects of spatial patterns on extinction risk tended to be reduced by long-distance dispersal. Given the high levels of spatial correlation in natural and anthropogenic disturbance processes, population vulnerability may be greatly underestimated both by classical (nonspatial) models and by those that consider spatial structure in habitat alone.  相似文献   

6.
Dispersal is the key process enhancing the long-term persistence of metapopulations in heterogeneous and dynamic landscapes. However, any individual emigrating from a occupied patch also increases the risk of local population extinction. The consequences of this increase for metapopulation persistence likely depend on the control of emigration. In this paper, we present results of individual-based simulations to compare the consequences of density-independent (DIE) and density-dependent (DDE) emigration on the extinction risk of local populations and a two-patch metapopulation. (1) For completely isolated patches extinction risk increases linearly with realised emigration rates in the DIE scenario. (2) For the DDE scenario extinction risk is nearly insensitive to emigration as longs as emigration probabilities remain below ≈0.2. Survival chances are up to half an order of magnitude larger than for populations with DIE. (3) For low dispersal mortality both modes of emigration increase survival of a metapopulation by ca. one order of magnitude. (4) For high dispersal mortality only DDE can improve the global survival chances of the metapopulation. (5) With DDE individuals are only removed from a population at high population density and the risk of extinction due to demographic stochasticity is thus much smaller compared to the DIE scenario.With density-dependent emigration prospects of metapopulations survival may thus be much higher compared to a system with density-independent emigration. Consequently, the knowledge about the factors driving emigration may significantly affect our conclusions concerning the conservation status of species.  相似文献   

7.
《Ecological modelling》2005,183(4):411-423
Habitat fragmentation can decrease local population persistence by reducing connectivity, which is a function of dispersal of individuals among habitat fragments. Dispersal is often treated as diffusion in population models, even though for many species it is a result of a series of behavioral decisions. We developed a metapopulation model to explore the potential importance of dispersal behaviors in driving metapopulation dynamics. We incorporated types of behavior that affect dispersal—colonization inhibiting, colonization enhancing, extinction inhibiting, extinction enhancing, rescue enhancing, rescue inhibiting—into Levins’ (1969) metapopulation model and projected occupancy rates for a variety of parameter values. Examples from the literature of behaviors associated with each of these parameters are provided. Our model simplifies into previously published metapopulation models that incorporate only a single behavior, and we present a density-dependent rescue function that leads to multiple non-zero equilibria. We found a variety of behavioral effects on metapopulations. Rescue enhancement fills patches faster than does colonization enhancement or extinction inhibition, and declines in patch occupancy are moderate with extinction enhancement, but colonization inhibition causes metapopulation extinction. We also found that with colonization and extinction inhibitions, equilibrium patch occupancy is inversely related to patch turnover rate. With density-dependent rescue, persistence depends not only on the strength of the strong rescue effect, but also on having a sufficient initial fraction of patches occupied; the stronger the rescue effect, the lower this fraction can be. This study suggests that dispersal behavior can have strong influences on metapopulation dynamics. It confirms the importance of understanding the relationship between landscape structure and dispersal behavior in understanding population persistence.  相似文献   

8.
Two species of butterflies, Euphydryas aurinia and Melitaea phoebe, coexist as two metapopulations in a 38-patch network in Hebei Province, China. A Markovian model, whose transition matrix is the product of two matrices which represent the local extinction and recolonization process respectively, is used to describe the metapopulation dynamics. The application of this model to the metapopulation, consisting of 12 local populations in the northern subregion, shows that the expected life times of E. aurinia and M. phoebe are 160 and 121 years respectively and usually nearly half of the patches are occupied by E. aurinia, while only 1–3 patches are occupied by M. phoebe. We claim that E. aurinia can persist for a long time while M. phoebe faces relatively big extinction risk. By comparing the population dynamics with and without migration, we find M. phoebe benefits much more from migration than E. aurinia. Most patches are occupied mainly by local populations for E. aurinia, while by immigrants from the 8th patch for M. phoebe, meaning that E. aurinia has a classical metapopulation structure while M. phoebe has a source–sink metapopulation structure.  相似文献   

9.
Altermatt F  Ebert D 《Ecology》2010,91(10):2975-2982
Migration is the key process to understand the dynamics and persistence of a metapopulation. Many metapopulation models assume a positive correlation between habitat patch size or stability and the number of emigrants. However, few empirical data exist, and habitat patch size and habitat stability may affect dispersal differently than they affect local persistence. Here, we studied the production of the migration stage (i.e., resting eggs called ephippia) of the cladoceran Daphnia magna in a metapopulation consisting of 530 rock pool habitat patches over 25 years. Earlier, the functioning of this metapopulation was explained with a Levins-type metapopulation model or with a mainland-island metapopulation model, based on local extinction and colonization data or time series data, respectively. We used pool volume, hydroperiod length, and number of desiccation events to calculate per-pool production of ephippia (i.e., migration stages). We estimated that populations in small and ephemeral habitat patches produced more than half of the 250 000 to 1 million ephippia that were produced in the metapopulation as a whole per year between 1982 and 2006. Furthermore, these small populations contributed approximately 90% of the ephippia exposed during desiccation events, while the contribution of the long-lived populations in large pools was minimal. We term this an "inverse mainland-island" type metapopulation and propose that populations in small, ephemeral habitat patches may also be the driving force for metapopulation dynamics in other systems.  相似文献   

10.
Many songbird populations in the midwestem United States are structured as a network of sources and sinks that are linked by dispersal. We used a modeling approach to examine explicitly how populations respond to incremental fragmentation of source habitat and how this response may vary depending upon two life-history attributes: fidelity to natal habitat type and reproductive strength of the source. Fragmentation of source habitat led to a predictable decline in population for both attributes examined, but the manner in which populations declined varied depending upon the reproductive strength of the source and the level of fidelity. When the source was weak and produced few excess individuals, fragmentation of source habitats resulted in a predictable and parallel population decline of adults in both the source and the sink. In this situation high fidelity to natal habitats was important for maintenance of population size and structure. Low fidelity to weak sources resulted in population extinction; populations experienced a demographic cost by dispersing from high quality source habitat to low quality sink habitat. In contrast, when the source was strong and produced many excess individuals, fragmentation of the source led to population declines in both the source and the sink, but this decline was more abrupt in sink habitats. When the source was strong and produced a large excess of individuals, nonfidelity to natal habitats had little effect on metapopulation size and structure.  相似文献   

11.
Extinction and metapopulation theories emphasize that stochastic fluctuations in local populations cause extinction and that local extinctions generate empty habitat patches that are then available for recolonization. Metapopulation persistence depends on the balance of extinction and colonization in a static environment. For many rare and declining species, I argue (1) that extinction is usually the deterministic consequence of the local environment becoming unsuitable (through habitat loss or modification, introduction of a predator, etc.); (2) that the local environment usually remains unsuitable following local extinction, so extinctions only rarely generate empty patches of suitable habitat; and (3) that colonization usually follows improvement of the local environment for a particular species (or long-distance transfer by humans). Thus, persistence depends predominantly on whether organisms are able to track the shifting spatial mosaic of suitable environmental conditions or on maintainance of good conditions locally.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract:  Metapopulations may be very sensitive to global climate change, particularly if temperature and precipitation change rapidly. We present an analysis of the role of climate and other factors in determining metapopulation structure based on presence and absence data. We compared existing and historical population distributions of desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) to determine whether regional climate patterns were correlated with local extinction. To examine all mountain ranges known to hold or to have held desert bighorn populations in California and score for variables describing climate, metapopulation dynamics, human impacts, and other environmental factors, we used a geographic information system (GIS) and paper maps. We used logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning to assess the relationship among these variables and the current status of each population (extinct or extant). Parameters related to climate—elevation, precipitation, and presence of dependable springs—were strongly correlated with population persistence in the twentieth century. Populations inhabiting lower, drier mountain ranges were more likely to go extinct. The presence of domestic sheep grazing allotments was negatively correlated with population persistence. We used conditional extinction probabilities generated by the logistic-regression model to rank native, naturally recolonized, and reintroduced populations by vulnerability to extinction under several climate-change scenarios. Thus risk of extinction in metapopulations can be evaluated for global-climate-change scenarios even when few demographic data are available.  相似文献   

13.
Low-vagility organisms that specialize on transitory successional habitats may be especially dependent upon habitat connectivity to maintain population viability. We analyzed the theoretical intrinsic connectivity of successional landscapes (i.e., the natural juxtaposition of similar habitats that allows dispersal) as a function of patch geometry coupled with the disperser's habitat specificity. Habitat specialists living in poorly connected landscapes (approximating hexagonal patches) have only a 26.5% chance of colonizing a new site when their resident patch becomes unsuitable. In contrast, generalists living in well connected landscapes can virtually always colonize a new site when needed. We infer from our simulation that for some habitat specialists, such as the rare, endemic Florida scrub lizard (Sceloporus woodi), anthropogenic control of successional dynamics for commercial logging may significantly reduce intrinsic connectivity. Lizard population viability may now depend upon the extrinsic connectivity provided by artificial corridors. However, the use of corridors will not serve as a general solution to the problem of anthropogenically reduced intrinsic connectivity until key logistical design problems have been resolved. Moreover, efforts to enhance intrinsic connectivity by modifying patch geometry may produce undesirable edge effects and conflict with old-growth preservation. Future research should focus on developing spatially explicit corridor models, documenting natural levels of intrinsic connectivity, quantifying anthropogenic disruption of natural connectivity, and describing species-specific mechanisms of inter-patch dispersal.  相似文献   

14.
Gray wolf (Canis lupus) recovery in the Rocky Mountains of the U.S. is proceeding by both natural recolonization and managed reintroduction. We used DNA microsatellite analysis of wolves transplanted from Canada to two reintroduction sites in the U.S. to study population structure in native and reintroduced wolf populations. Gene flow due to migration between regions in Canada is substantial, and all three recovery populations in the U.S. had high genetic variation. The reintroduced founders were moderately genetically divergent from the naturally colonizing U.S. population. These findings corroborate that the reintroduction more than meets generally accepted genetic guidelines. Maintaining this variation, however, will depend on ample reproduction in the first few generations. In the long term genetic variation will best be retained if migration occurs among the recolonizing and the two transplanted populations. Evidence from field observation and genetic studies shows extensive dispersal by wolves, and we conclude that exchange among these groups due to natural dispersal is likely if public tolerance and legal protection are adequate outside lands designated for wolf recovery.  相似文献   

15.
Habitat loss is the principal threat to species. How much habitat remains—and how quickly it is shrinking—are implicitly included in the way the International Union for Conservation of Nature determines a species’ risk of extinction. Many endangered species have habitats that are also fragmented to different extents. Thus, ideally, fragmentation should be quantified in a standard way in risk assessments. Although mapping fragmentation from satellite imagery is easy, efficient techniques for relating maps of remaining habitat to extinction risk are few. Purely spatial metrics from landscape ecology are hard to interpret and do not address extinction directly. Spatially explicit metapopulation models link fragmentation to extinction risk, but standard models work only at small scales. Counterintuitively, these models predict that a species in a large, contiguous habitat will fare worse than one in 2 tiny patches. This occurs because although the species in the large, contiguous habitat has a low probability of extinction, recolonization cannot occur if there are no other patches to provide colonists for a rescue effect. For 4 ecologically comparable bird species of the North Central American highland forests, we devised metapopulation models with area‐weighted self‐colonization terms; this reflected repopulation of a patch from a remnant of individuals that survived an adverse event. Use of this term gives extra weight to a patch in its own rescue effect. Species assigned least risk status were comparable in long‐term extinction risk with those ranked as threatened. This finding suggests that fragmentation has had a substantial negative effect on them that is not accounted for in their Red List category. Estimación del Riesgo de Extinción Mediante Modelos Metapoblacionales de Fragmentación a Gran Escala  相似文献   

16.
Roughly 40 years after its introduction, the metapopulation concept is central to population ecology. The notion that local populations and their dynamics may be coupled by dispersal is without any doubt of great importance for our understanding of population-level processes. A metapopulation describes a set of subpopulations linked by (rare) dispersal events in a dynamic equilibrium of extinctions and recolonizations. In the large body of literature that has accumulated, the term "metapopulation" is often used in a very broad sense; most of the time it simply implies spatial heterogeneity. A number of reviews have recently addressed this problem and have pointed out that, despite the large and still growing popularity of the metapopulation concept, there are only very few empirical examples that conform with the strict classical metapopulation (CM) definition. In order to understand this discrepancy between theory and observation, we use an individual-based modeling approach that allows us to pinpoint the environmental conditions and the life-history attributes required for the emergence of a CM structure. We find that CM dynamics are restricted to a specific parameter range at the border between spatially structured but completely occupied and globally extinct populations. Considering general life-history attributes, our simulations suggest that CMs are more likely to occur in arthropod species than in (large) vertebrates. Since the specific type of spatial population structure determines conservation concepts, our findings have important implications for conservation biology. Our model suggests that most spatially structured populations are panmictic, patchy, or of mainland-island type, which makes efforts spent on increasing connectivity (e.g., corridors) questionable. If one does observe a true CM structure, this means that the focal metapopulation is on the brink of extinction and that drastic conservation measures are needed.  相似文献   

17.
Dormant propagule banks are important reservoirs of biological and genetic diversity of local communities and populations and provide buffering mechanisms against extinction. Although dormant stages of various plant and animal species are known to remain viable for decades and even centuries, little is known about the effective influence of recolonization from such old sources on the genetic continuity of intermittent populations under natural conditions. Using recent and old dormant eggs recovered from a dated lake sediment core in Kenya, we traced the genetic composition of a local population of the planktonic crustacean Daphnia barbata through a sequence of extinction and recolonization events. This was combined with a phylogeographic and population-genetic survey of regional populations. Four successive populations, fully separated in time, inhabited Lake Naivasha from ca. 1330 to 1570 AD, from ca. 1610 to 1720 AD, from ca. 1840 to 1940 AD, and from 1995 to the present (2001 AD). Our results strongly indicate genetic continuity between the 1840-1940 and 1995-2001 populations, which are separated in time by at least 50 years, and close genetic relatedness of them both to the 1330-1580 population. A software tool (Colonize) was developed to find the most likely source population of the refounded 1995-2001 population and to test the number of colonists involved in the recolonization event. The results confirmed that the 1995-2001 population most probably developed out of a limited number of surviving local dormant eggs from the previous population, rather than out of individuals from regional (central and southern Kenya) or more distant (Ethiopia, Zimbabwe) populations that may have immigrated to Lake Naivasha through passive dispersal. These results emphasize the importance of prolonged dormancy for the natural long-term dynamics of crustacean zooplankton in fluctuating environments and suggest an important role of old local dormant egg banks in aquatic habitat restoration.  相似文献   

18.
The ability of the whiptail lizard Aspidoscelis marmorata (Teiidae) to detect and discriminate chemical stimuli associated with the integument of a sympatric saurophagous lizard (Crotaphytus collaris) was tested. Females of A. marmorata were presented with cotton swabs containing chemical cues from C. collaris and three species of nonsaurophagous lizards, as well as water and cologne (pungency control), and total number of tongue-flick (TF) recorded. Other responses were assessed including directed TF rate, time from initial presentation of the stimulus to first TF (latency), time spent fleeing from the stimulus, and number of flight bouts. The number of TFs, directed TF rate, and number of attempts at fleeing exhibited by were significantly greater when females were presented with swabs containing cues from C. collaris as compared to nonsaurophagous lizards and both control treatments. A. marmorata required significantly less time to elicit their first TF when presented with cues from C. collaris as compared to all other treatments. Most previous studies have focused on the responses of lizards to cues associated with snake predators. This study provides the first available data on responses of a teiid to cues associated with a saurophagous lizard.  相似文献   

19.
Although interwetland dispersal is thought to play an important role in regional persistence of pond‐breeding amphibians, few researchers have modeled amphibian metapopulation or source‐sink dynamics. Results of recent modeling studies suggest anthropogenic stressors, such as pollution, can negatively affect density and population viability of amphibians breeding in isolated wetlands. Presumably population declines also result in reduced dispersal to surrounding (often uncontaminated) habitats, potentially affecting dynamics of nearby populations. We used our data on the effects of mercury (Hg) on the American toad ( Bufo americanus) as a case study in modeling the effects of anthropogenic stressors on landscape‐scale amphibian dynamics. We created a structured metapopulation model to investigate regional dynamics of American toads and to evaluate the degree to which detrimental effects of Hg contamination on individual populations can disrupt interpopulation dynamics. Dispersal from typical American toad populations supported nearby populations that would otherwise have been extirpated over long time scales. Through support of such sink populations, dispersal between wetland‐associated subpopulations substantially increased overall productivity of wetland networks, but this effect declined with increasing interwetland distance and decreasing wetland size. Contamination with Hg substantially reduced productivity of wetland‐associated subpopulations and impaired the ability of populations to support nearby sinks within relevant spatial scales. Our results add to the understanding of regional dynamics of pond‐breeding amphibians, the wide‐reaching negative effects of environmental contaminants, and the potential for restoration or remediation of degraded habitats. Evaluación de los Efectos de Estresantes Antropogénicos sobre la Dinámica Fuente‐Vertedero en Anfibios que se Reproducen en Charcas  相似文献   

20.
Conservation of Fragmented Populations   总被引:38,自引:0,他引:38  
In this paper we argue that landscape spatial structure is of central importance in understanding the effects of fragmentation on population survival. Landscape spatial structure is the spatial relationships among habitat patches and the matrix in which they are embedded. Many general models of subdivided populations make the assumptions that (1) all habitat patches are equivalent in size and quality and (2) all local populations (in the patches) are equally accessible by dispersers. Models that gloss over spatial details of landscape structure can be useful for theoretical developments but will almost always be misleading when applied to real-world conservation problems. We show that local extinctions of fragmented populations are common. From this it follows that recolonization of local extinctions is critical for regional survival of fragmented populations. The probability of recolonization depends on (1) spatial relationships among landscape elements used by the population, including habitat patches for breeding and elements of the inter-patch matrix through which dispersers move, (2) dispersal characteristics of the organism of interest, and (3) temporal changes in the landscape structure. For endangered species, which are typically restricted in their dispersal range and in the kinds of habitat through which they can disperse, these factors are of primary importance and must be explicitly considered in management decisions.  相似文献   

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