青藏高原东部牧区大—暴雪过程雪灾灾情实时预评估方法的研究

利用青藏高原东部牧区26个县气象站30a的大－暴雪过程资料，以雪灾形成的主导因子－持续积雪日数作为灾情评估的等级标准，应用逐步回归方法，建立了冬半年持续积雪日数对大－暴雪过程的累积降水量、平均气温、最大积雪深度和最低气温降温4个因子的回归方程。经F检验，所有方程的回归效果达到十分显著成显著的水平，从而建立了大－暴雪过程雪灾灾情的灾时预评估方法。通过对1996－1999年资料的对比试用，表明这种预评估方法具有较高的精度和业务化的潜力，可作为雪灾情报服务的一种手段。     

气候变化对内蒙古牧区白灾的影响——基于熵权法分析的锡林浩特市案例研究

锡林浩特位于内蒙古牧区锡林郭勒盟中东部，由于自然条件和社会因素，其畜牧业发展受白灾影响较大，所以在全球变暖的大环境下，研究气候变化对锡林浩特白灾的影响是很有必要的。基于对研究区近几十年内发生的白灾事件的分析，选取了6个评价白灾的气候指标：冬季降水量、积雪持续时间、低温容易掉膘期的负积温、5日温差≥12℃日数、积雪期大风日数和牧草生长季降水量，并利用国家气候中心提供的地面气象资料月报和锡林浩特牧试站数据，计算了这6个因子的长期变化趋势，表明冬季降水和低温容易掉膘期的负积温有增加的趋势，同时积雪期大风日数有减小趋势。文章还引入熵权法，计算了各因子对白灾影响的重要性程度，从而建立了综合评价方法，用以分析白灾随气候变化的变化规律。结果表明，在现有气候变化条件下，白灾有减轻的趋势。     

青藏高原冬季积雪与河北省夏季降水

应用青藏高原地面站积雪观测资料,ＮＯＡＡ卫星观测积雪面积和美国宇航局微波遥感积雪深度等资料进行综合对比分析,确定了青藏高原冬季积雪的年际变化,在此基础上讨论了青藏高原冬季积雪状况对河北降水的影响。结果表明,青藏高原冬季多雪时,当年河北夏季降水往往偏少;青藏高原冬季少雪时,河北夏季降水往往偏多。     

单跨单坡屋面积雪分布系数分析

为真实反映单跨单坡屋面的积雪分布情况,给出较为合理的积雪分布系数,通过单跨单坡屋面积雪现场调查,分析了《建筑结构荷载规范》中屋面积雪分布系数的取值问题。采用FLUENT软件分别建立了坡度角为25°,30°,35°,40°,45°和50°的单跨单坡屋面的低立面和高立面迎风的风致积雪分析模型。分析表明,在屋面两侧和下坡处积雪较多,上坡处积雪相对较少。低立面迎风时,坡度角的变化对屋面风速大小与角度的影响都较小;高立面迎风时,涡流范围覆盖整个高立面后方区域。涡流随着屋面坡度角的增大而逐渐增大,因而屋面上部不易形成稳定的积雪带。与《建筑结构荷载规范》相比,屋面积雪分布存在明显的差异,通过分析给出了单跨单坡屋面积雪分布系数的建议。     

基于遥感的新疆北疆积雪盖度及雪深监测

新疆北疆为雪灾多发区,准确地监测积雪分布及雪深具有十分重要的意义,可为雪灾多发区在冬季做好防灾减灾工作提供依据.目前MODIS数据主要运用归一化差分雪盖指数(NDSI)对积雪进行提取.NDSI是基于雪对可见光与近红外波段的反射特性和反射差相对大小的一种测量方法,然而它只能将像元辨别为积雪或非积雪,满足不了高精度的流域制图及雪盖提取要求.以新疆北疆为研究对象,应用MODIS数据和线性光谱混合模型提取像元内积雪所占比例(积雪盖度),并与NDSI建立关系,讨论了NDSI是否可以作为估算积雪盖度的标准,进而提高NDSI在积雪监测中的应用精度.结果表明,二者具有较好的线性关系,经过野外实测点的验证,25个点的平均绝对误差是0.06.此外,以MODIS数据与地面实测雪深资料为基础,通过分析和研究MODIS窗区通道的光谱特点,探讨了适合于积雪雪深监测最佳的MODIS通道,初步建立起应用MODIS资料监测北疆地区积雪深度的反演模型.     

基于NEX-GDDP数据集的青藏高原牧区雪灾风险预估

依托中国逐日雪深模拟预估数据集、草地生产力数据、气象站点数据、灾害统计资料以及统计年鉴,选取了历史基准时段(1986—2005年)、未来近期(2016—2035年)和未来远期(2046—2065年)三个时间段,以及RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景,分析了青藏高原牧区雪灾危险性、牧区牲畜暴露量以及脆弱性,在此基础上,定量预估了青藏高原畜牧业雪灾风险。结果表明：(1)青藏高原区域内,中国逐日雪深模拟预估数据中,CESM1-BGC模式模拟的积雪深度数据更接近于站点雪深观测值,模拟精度最高,此次研究选用该模式下雪深数据识别雪灾危险性。雪灾危险性从时序看,相比于历史时期,RCP4.5情景下未来近期、未来远期和RCP8.5情景下未来近期、未来远期发生雪灾危险性的范围减少6%、11%、6%和14%;但是雪灾危险性强度减弱并不明显,RCP4.5情景下,未来远期,甚至增强;空间分布来看,危险性指数较高的区域主要分布在藏北高原、冈底斯山脉沿线、昆仑山脉西段沿线、祁连山脉沿线、三江源区域和横断山脉山脉区域。(2)与2000年青藏高原牧区草地载畜量相比,2017年载畜量增加11%,未来载畜量将可能进一步增加...     

南京近50年冬季低温冰冻积雪事件的气候特征

应用南京逐日观测资料分析了南京低温、冰冻和积雪灾害的变化特征及其与区域气候变暖的联系,得到如下结论:①低温、冰冻、积雪事件都存在一定的年代际和年际的周期变化;冬季平均最低气温和极端最低气温具有相似的周期性特征;积雪深度的年代际尺度的周期特征明显,但是较小尺度的年际周期不明显;②近50年来南京的低温、冰冻、积雪事件呈现波动下降的趋势;③南京年均气温和低温、冰冻、积雪事件之间存在较强的相关性与区域气候变暖关系密切。     

青海省重大灾害应急救援总队挂牌成立

2006年2月28日，青海省重大灾害应急救援总队成立大会暨授旗揭牌仪式在青海省消防总队隆重举行。青海省人民政府、青海省公安消防总队、青海省地震局、青海省发改委、青海省财政厅、青海省公安厅、青海省建设厅、青海省安全生产监督管理局的领导同志和青海省重大灾害应急救援总队的全体成员以及青海省内各大新闻媒体100多人参加了会议。会议由省政府副秘书长王予波主持，     

草地畜牧业雪灾脆弱性评价 --以内蒙古牧区为例

从综合减灾和区域可持续发展的角度，建立了雪灾脆弱性评价指标体系及评价模型，并从雪灾区域孕灾环境敏感性以及区域畜牧业承灾体对雪灾的适应性两方面，对内蒙古雪灾脆弱性进行了评价。研究结果表明：内蒙古牧区雪灾脆弱性存在若明显的地域差异，中西部牧区比东部牧区脆弱性大，北部牧区比南部牧区脆弱性大，并且近10年来脆弱性提高的旗县明显增多，草地季节性干旱、北方干旱化以及草场超载过牧、退化加剧是畜牧业雪灾脆弱性呈增加趋势的直接原因。     

南方雨雪冰冻灾害过程的冻雨天气及积雪监测

2008年初,我国南方出现了罕见的大范围低温雨雪冰冻天气灾害。在整理灾害过程期间南方地区冻雨天气探空曲线后,发现我国东部低海拔地区冻雨天气的发生机制与高海拔的贵州中西部冻雨天气的发生机制有所不同。我国南方地区由于处于低纬度地区,地面积雪多为湿雪、薄雪。雪内少量液态水就能导致微波亮温值急剧上升,大大改变雪层观测辐射信号。利用南方地区积雪冻融变化时微波亮温昼夜之间的差异变化,使用被动微波数据(SSM/I)建立了一种针对低纬度南方地区积雪监测的补充方法,从而可以获得更加完整的低纬度地区积雪覆盖图像。     

Science guides search and rescue after the 2006 Philippine landslide

A rockslide-debris avalanche destroyed the remote village of Guinsaugon in Southern Leyte, Philippines, on 17 February 2006. Although search and rescue procedures were implemented immediately, the scale of the landslide and a lack of information about its nature resulted in unfocused and imprecise efforts in the early days of the operation. Technical support was only introduced five days after the event, provided by a team of volunteer geologists, geophysicists, and meteorologists. By the time search and rescue operations were transferred to specific target sites, however, the chances of finding survivors trapped under the rubble had diminished. In such critical situations, speed, accuracy, and the maximum appropriation of resources are crucial. We emphasise here the need for a systematic and technically informed approach to search and rescue missions in large-scale landslide disaster contexts, and the formulation of better disaster management policies in general. Standard procedures must be developed and enforced to improve how civil authorities respond to natural calamities.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.     

地质灾害防治行业信用体系建设探讨

信用是人类社会契约精神和信任关系的表达,是社会发展的必然产物。良好的信用体系能够促进资源的有效配置,提高交易效率,促进社会行业的健康良性发展。发达国家经过长期发展,已经形成完善的信用体系,大致可以分为市场经营、会员制经营、公共经营三种模式。21世纪后我国信用体系建设飞速发展,制度监管框架正在逐步建立,基础设施建设日趋完善,行业发展初具规模,中国地质灾害防治工程行业协会和四川省分别出台了各自的地质灾害防治行业信用体系制度。基于国内外信用体系建设经验和地质灾害防治行业当前状况,从顶层设计、统一标准、公开渠道、联合惩戒四个方面对我国地质灾害防治行业信用体系建设提出发展思路,构建了陕西省地质灾害防治行业信用体系。     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Coping and adaptation strategies and institutional perceptions of hydrological risk in an urban Amazonian city

This paper investigates coping and adaptation strategies and institutional perceptions of hydrological risk at the local scale in Santarém, an Amazonian city in the state of Pará, Brazil. Methods and tools of analysis encompassed secondary data, field observations, and qualitative techniques (focus-group discussions and in-depth interviews). Stakeholders from affected neighbourhoods describe their means of coping with and adapting to flooding, focusing on purposefulness, type of initiative and investment, risk timing, temporal and spatial scope, and performance. The results comprise an inventory of 16 mostly structural measures. The perceptions of six institutions of general responses to flooding are presented as opinions on actions that reduce the effects of such events, individual strategies and collective community endeavours in at-risk areas, and the activities of the public and private sectors to manage floods. Understanding of coping and adaptation strategies and knowledge of institutional flood risk perceptions can benefit the implementation of risk and disaster reduction policies and practices.     

The Lost Creek Fire: managing social relations under disaster conditions

This paper examines some of the social processes associated with disaster conditions. Utilising an asset‐based perspective of community capacity, it focuses on four types of normative systems to interpret the ability of communities to manage disasters through market‐, bureaucratic‐, associative‐, and communal‐based norms. Drawing on experience of a wildfire in the Crowsnest Pass region of southwest Alberta, Canada, in 2003, the tensions and compatibilities among these normative systems are evaluated through interviews with 30 community leaders. The results confirm the contributions of all types of social capital to resiliency, the necessity for rapid use of place‐based knowledge, and the importance of communication among all types and levels of agents. In addition, they point to the value of identifying and managing potential conflicts among the normative systems as a means to maximising their contributions. The integration of local networks and groups into the more general disaster response minimised the impacts on health and property.     

Long-term gendered consequences of permanent disabilities caused by the 2005 Pakistan earthquake

This study documents the long-term gendered impact of the 2005 Pakistan earthquake on women and men who were rendered paraplegic as a result of spinal cord injuries sustained during the disaster. Coping mechanisms are also mapped. The findings show that three years after the disaster, paraplegic women are socially, emotionally, and financially isolated. The small stipend they receive is a significant source of income, but it has also led to marital distrust, violence, and abuse. In contrast, men receive full social and emotional support. Their key concern is that the government is not providing them with opportunities to be economically productive. Contemporary discourse and post-disaster policies, while acknowledging the importance of incorporating a gender perspective in the immediate post-disaster period, have failed to acknowledge and address the longer-term gendered impact of disasters, in terms of the different types of impact and strategies adopted by women and men.     

Disaster preparedness in a complex urban system: the case of Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

The city is a growing centre of humanitarian concern. Yet, aid agencies, governments and donors are only beginning to comprehend the scale and, importantly, the complexity of the humanitarian challenge in urban areas. Using the case study of the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, this paper examines the analytical utility of recent research on complex urban systems in strengthening scholarly understanding of urban disaster risk management, and outlines its operational relevance to disaster preparedness. Drawing on a literature review and 26 interviews with actors from across the Government of Nepal, the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, non‐governmental organisations, United Nations agencies, and at‐risk communities, the study argues that complexity can be seen as a defining feature of urban systems and the risks that confront them. To manage risk in these systems effectively, preparedness efforts must be based on adaptive and agile approaches, incorporating the use of network analysis, partnerships, and new technologies.     

An ethical analysis of hydrometeorological prediction and decision making: The case of the 1997 Red River flood

Weather, climate, and flood predictions are incorporated into human decisions in a wide variety of situations, including decisions related to hazardous hydrometeorological events. This article examines ethical aspects of such predictions and decisions, focusing on the case of the 1997 Red River flood in Grand Forks, North Dakota and East Grand Forks, Minnesota (US). The analysis employs a formal ethical framework and analytical method derived from medical and business ethics. The results of the analysis highlight issues related to forecast generation, communication of forecast meaning and uncertainty, responsibility for the use of forecasts in decision making, and trade-offs between the desire for forecast certainty and the risk of missed events. Implications of the analysis for the broader arenas of weather, climate, and flood prediction and disaster management are also discussed.