An ethical analysis of hydrometeorological prediction and decision making: The case of the 1997 Red River flood

Weather, climate, and flood predictions are incorporated into human decisions in a wide variety of situations, including decisions related to hazardous hydrometeorological events. This article examines ethical aspects of such predictions and decisions, focusing on the case of the 1997 Red River flood in Grand Forks, North Dakota and East Grand Forks, Minnesota (US). The analysis employs a formal ethical framework and analytical method derived from medical and business ethics. The results of the analysis highlight issues related to forecast generation, communication of forecast meaning and uncertainty, responsibility for the use of forecasts in decision making, and trade-offs between the desire for forecast certainty and the risk of missed events. Implications of the analysis for the broader arenas of weather, climate, and flood prediction and disaster management are also discussed.     

The impact of disasters on small business disaster planning: a case study

A major flood in 1997 forced the evacuation of Grand Forks, North Dakota and caused damage of USD 1 billion. Despite this recent disaster there is only marginal evidence of an increase in disaster recovery planning by businesses that experienced the flood. This finding is consistent with the results of other business-related disaster research. Statistical tests of survey results from 2003 indicate that there is a significantly higher rate of disaster recovery planning in businesses started since the 1997 flood than in businesses started before the flood and still in business. Such an outcome indicates a need for public policy actions emphasizing the importance of disaster planning. Improved disaster planning is an aid to business recovery and the results demonstrate the need for more widespread efforts to improve disaster recovery planning on the part of smaller businesses, even in areas that have recently experienced disasters.     

Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008

In 2008, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) used a seasonal forecast for West Africa for the first time to implement an Early Warning, Early Action strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response. Interviews with disaster managers suggest that this approach improved their capacity and response. Relief supplies reached flood victims within days, as opposed to weeks in previous years, thereby preventing further loss of life, illness, and setbacks to livelihoods, as well as augmenting the efficiency of resource use. This case demonstrates the potential benefits to be realised from the use of medium‐to‐long‐range forecasts in disaster management, especially in the context of potential increases in extreme weather and climate‐related events due to climate variability and change. However, harnessing the full potential of these forecasts will require continued effort and collaboration among disaster managers, climate service providers, and major humanitarian donors.     

陕西未来50年区域旱涝气候预测研究

用陕西省近526a的旱涝等级资料,根据超低频气候振动理论和尺度对应原理,通过旱涝气候对天体物理、太阳活动等周期,特别是ENSO对天体物理显著敏感的周期响应关系的物理统计分析,选取周期概率显著的周期,进行外延叠加集成预测,给出了未来50a陕西省不同区域旱涝趋势的预测结果．     

Environmental knowledge and human experience: using a historical analysis of flooding in Ireland to challenge contemporary risk narratives and develop creative policy alternatives

Focusing on three of the largest coastal cities in the Republic of Ireland, this paper highlights the importance of a historical analysis of flood hazards in contextualising current events and potential future risks. Over the last decade, the cities of Dublin, Cork and Galway have experienced several major coastal, river and pluvial floods. In the aftermath of these floods, two distinct but related narratives have dominated public discourse and official responses. The first narrative presents recent floods as unprecedented and as possible evidence of climate change. The second constructs floods primarily as natural events and assumes that the optimal means of reducing flood losses is to prevent flood events. In this paper, I suggest that these narratives are not supported by a historical analysis of exposure and vulnerability to flood hazards in Irish cities. This paper draws primarily on newspaper archives to construct a record of past flooding that challenges these narratives in several ways and in doing so offers lessons for similar cities in other countries. I contend that these narratives are perpetuated by a narrow form of knowledge production (quantitative risk assessment) and a narrow range of data (numeric instrumental records). Incorporating a broader range of sources and data types into risk and vulnerability assessments may illuminate more creative strategies for reducing both contemporary and future flood losses.     

How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts

Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather‐related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision‐making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national‐level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.     

Use of computer models of flood inundation to facilitate communication in flood risk management

It is now widely recognised that good communication between multi-disciplinary stakeholders is central to effective flood risk management. Recent developments in Geographical Information Systems, increased availability of accurate digital terrain models from remotely sensed data sources and improved graphical computer interfaces have made the outputs from computer models of flood inundation easily accessible to the stakeholder community. As a consequence, predictions from such models are now being used routinely as a means of communication between engineers and other stakeholders in flood risk management. This paper provides a review of the modelling methods most appropriate for flood risk communication. These are one-dimensional models which are suitable for simulating flood risk at a catchment or sub-catchment scale and appropriate for communicating the impact of strategic flood management decisions and two-dimensional models which can be applied across a range of scales but, are now being regularly applied at the relatively small scale, less than 10 km², where they have the potential to inform and communicate disaster management decisions. The role of such models in communicating between modellers and non-modellers by providing a means for immediate visualisation of “the future” is discussed and illustrated by application to two case studies.     

Use of computer models of flood inundation to facilitate communication in flood risk management

It is now widely recognised that good communication between multi-disciplinary stakeholders is central to effective flood risk management. Recent developments in Geographical Information Systems, increased availability of accurate digital terrain models from remotely sensed data sources and improved graphical computer interfaces have made the outputs from computer models of flood inundation easily accessible to the stakeholder community. As a consequence, predictions from such models are now being used routinely as a means of communication between engineers and other stakeholders in flood risk management. This paper provides a review of the modelling methods most appropriate for flood risk communication. These are one-dimensional models which are suitable for simulating flood risk at a catchment or sub-catchment scale and appropriate for communicating the impact of strategic flood management decisions and two-dimensional models which can be applied across a range of scales but, are now being regularly applied at the relatively small scale, less than 10 km², where they have the potential to inform and communicate disaster management decisions. The role of such models in communicating between modellers and non-modellers by providing a means for immediate visualisation of “the future” is discussed and illustrated by application to two case studies.     

宁波市水旱灾害孕灾环境因子分析

分析了宁波市水旱灾害形成的主要因子,认为水旱灾害是在天气气候因子、地貌因子、水文因子、土壤植被因子、社会经济因子、防洪抗旱能力因子等自然因素和人为因素的共同作用下产生和发展的。水旱灾害的形成,自然条件固然重要,但形成严重灾害,则与人为因素有密切的关系。     

云南突发灾害现场应急气象服务体系的构建

近年来极端天气、气候事件频发,影响日趋广泛,为制定防灾、减灾、抗灾决策,更好地保护人民生命财产安全,迫切需要气象服务为地震、山洪泥石流等自然灾害现场提供更具针对性、准确性的基础保障。该文对2014年云南鲁旬6.5级地震现场应急气象保障服务过程回顾,总结应急现场气象服务的不足,分析应急现场气象服务的需求和特点,提出满足云南省突发灾害应急现场气象服务体系的主要功能,并具体分析系统各功能部分的设计技术要点。     

黑龙江省冬季异常暖气候事件判定及其与环流指数的关系

利用1961-2018年黑龙江省61个站冬季逐日平均气温资料,以连续5 d日平均气温正距平超过1倍标准差为标准,对黑龙江省冬季异常暖事件进行了判断,并按照0.3个标准差将其分为一级、二级、三级异常暖气候事件。分析表明黑龙江省在58年间冬季共发生35次异常暖气候事件,累计天数270 d。异常暖气候事件发生有较明显的周期性变化,1961-1986年和2009-2018年为低发期、1987-2008年为高发期。71.4%的异常暖事件发生在1986年后,说明异常暖事件的频繁发生对1980年代中后期该省冬季气温显著升高有直接贡献。1961-2018年该省冬季发生一级、二级、三级异常暖气候事件分别为9次、10次、16次。研究月尺度同期环流指数异常与黑龙江省异常暖气候事件的关系,发现北半球极涡面积异常偏小、极涡强度异常偏强、东亚槽强度异常偏弱和北极涛动异常正位相与异常暖气候事件发生有较好的对应关系,为今后黑龙江省冬季异常暖气候事件的预测提供了可靠参考。     

厄尔尼诺事件与黑龙江省低温洪涝灾害的影响及其预报

在研究厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）事件对黑龙江省低温洪涝灾害的影响中,提出了一种表征厄尔尼诺现象的IEN指数,并根据IEN指数谱分析结果给出了厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）事件的统计预测方法。对1997年强厄尔尼诺和1998年拉尼娜事件的实际预报效果表明,该方法是可行的,在区域和省级短期气候预测中可以发挥重要的作用。     

九十年代以来全球重大天气气候事件回顾

本文首先揭示了九十年代全球变暖背景下北半球中高纬度地区冬季的异常冷暖气候事件及其相应的环流形势。着重回顾了全球热浪、暴雨洪涝、大范围持续干旱及热带风暴等重大灾害性天气气候事件及其影响，并对其形成的可能原因进行了一些诊断分析。     

浙江省洪水成因初探

根据大量洪水和有关资料,从太阳活动、行星运行和地球系统等方面,分析了形成浙江洪水的物理因素,为洪水预测提供了一定的理论依据．     

洪水影响因子的消长作用

提出了洪水影响因子消长作用的概念。洪水影响因子之间存在着多种多样的组合关系，因而表现出复杂的消长作用。正是这种消长作用，使因子与洪水之间既具有一定的关系，又没有一一确定的关系，从而使根据单一因子进行洪水预测的准确率始终难以提高。消长作用的认识对影响因子全面综合的诊断分析有所裨益。     

1950年以来广西洪涝灾害及趋势预测

基于对历史上广西洪涝灾害数据分析的基础上, 总结了广西洪涝灾害的特点, 并用多种方法对广西的洪涝发生趋势进行了预测, 以便能够更好地配合防灾减灾活动     

洪涝灾害灾情时间变化特性分析——以中国1736～1911年主要大江大河流域变化序列分析为例

利用已经建立的全国1736～1911年洪涝灾害时间序列，拟合了各个区域的洪涝灾害长期变化趋势，并通过功率谱分析了时间序列的波动规律；同时，分析了气温，降水等自然因素的变化和人口总量变化、人口空间迁移以及土地利用变化等人文因素变化与灾害增减之间的关系。结果表明，洪涝灾害的波动主要由气候变化等自然因素的波动所引起，而人类活动增强并不断向高风险区扩展是洪涝灾害持续增长的主要原因，最终使洪涝灾害表现为在波动中持续增长。     

1999年我国主要气象灾害及异常气候事件

１９９９年，我国先后出现了干旱、暴雨洪涝、台风、风雹、沙尘暴、雪灾和冻害等多种气象灾害，特别是干旱持续时间长、范围广，旱情重。除上述气象灾害外，本年度还出现了冬暖，夏凉、春寒、倒春寒、夏季高温和秋老虎等异常气候事件，本文主要是几种主要气旬灾害和异常气候事件的发生特点和影响进行了分析和评述。     

近30年来湖北洪涝灾害时序特征及预测分析——基于分形与混沌理论的研究

借助分形与混沌理论,对1978-2004年湖北省洪涝灾害成灾面积时间序列进行了分析,重构了其嵌入相空间序列,计算了其关联维数和饱和嵌入维数,确定了模拟相应动力系统所需的基本变量数目;同时,通过计算Kolmogorov熵,得出了对该洪涝灾害时间序列进行预测预报的时间尺度.最后,基于R/S分形分析,对湖北省未来洪涝灾害成灾面积的发展趋势作了预测,对该省洪涝灾害成灾面积可能呈现增大趋势的原因进行了分析,并提出了相应的对策.研究表明,该方法是一种有效的研究洪涝灾害时间序列分形特征的方法,能够客观、合理地反映洪涝灾害系统的分形特征,能为建立洪涝灾害成灾面积时间序列预报模型提供基础信息.     

Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.