SF6设备中分解产物分析研究

针对SF₆设备运行中出现的问题,对SF₆气体分解产物的含量情况进行分析研究,为SF₆设备的在线诊断分析提供可靠数据。结果表明:SF₆气体分解产物的含量分析结果可作为设备故障分析和状态检修的参考依据。     

Hazardscapes in reunified Germany

Abstract

German reunification had significant political, economic, social, and environmental impacts. A major environmental impact involved changes to the German technological hazardscape (especially in the East). Hazardscapes are defined here as the spatial distribution and attributes of human engineered facilities such as industrial plants, military bases and power stations that contain or emit substances harmful to humans and the environment. The purpose of this paper is to explain how and why the German technological hazardscape changed after reunification. A cursory analysis might ascribe hazardscape change to the application of strict West German environmental laws and sophisticated environmental protection technologies to the East. This paper contends, however, that it was a political economy rather than an environmental imperative that drove the changes to the hazardscape, and that this continuing conflict may have serious repercussions on the future environmental health of eastern Germany.     

Understanding recovery of small enterprises from natural disaster

This study, carried out among 251 small-scale firm owners by means of a cross-sectional survey, attempted to identify the factors affecting business recovery from disaster in a flood-prone area of Bangladesh. We selected the participants by using a convenience sampling technique, taking into consideration the characteristics of the firms, and the various enabling- and disaster-impact factors needed to identify those factors significant to business recovery from natural disaster. Results demonstrated that more than three-quarters (87.3%) of owners recovered their firms after disaster. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that a total of six variables had a significant impact on business recovery: two variables pertaining to the firms’ characteristics, namely, retail firms (OR?=?0.147, P?<?0.05) and the number of employees >4 (OR?=?0.094, P?<?0.01); two variables pertaining to enabling factors, namely, receiving loans (OR?=?0.232, P?<?0.01) and the perception of recovery (OR?=?16.178, P?<?0.01); and two variables pertaining to disaster-impact factors, namely, an income loss amounting to >BDT 2000 (OR?=?7.395, P?<?0.05) and permanent or temporary relocation of the market (OR?=?9.252, P?<?0.001). Results further demonstrated that almost equally half of the owners recovered their firms immediately or within 7 days after disaster (50.9%); the remaining 49.1% took longer. Multivariate analyses, on the other hand, significantly identified three characteristics, namely, 6–10 years of business operation (OR?=?0.267, P?<?0.01), 2–4 employees (OR?=?0.1.822, P?<?0.01), and a monthly income of BDT 5001–7500 (OR?=?4.167, P?<?0.01); two enabling factors, namely, institutional education (OR?=?0.400, P?<?0.05) and awareness of disaster assistance (OR?=?0.607, P?<?0.05); and two disaster-impact factors, namely, loss of human resources (OR?=?6.293, P?<?0.05) and interrupted supply of raw materials (OR?=?4.741, P?<?0.05). We concluded the study with discussions of a few policy implications.     

Decreasing the knowledge gap among different socioeconomic status groups on the issue of climate change

Climate change is causing severe negative consequences to small low-lying islands. To mitigate and adapt to climate change, it is important to improve public knowledge on its causes and consequences. As a social issue that needs collective action to address, the knowledge gap among different segments of population would be a barrier to people’s behaviors toward mitigation and adaption to climate change. This study aims to investigate public knowledge acquisition of climate change by revisiting the knowledge gap hypothesis. A nationally representative random computer-assisted telephone interview survey (N?=?1093) was conducted in Singapore. Quantitative analyses revealed that both newspaper reading and television viewing could reduce the knowledge gap between high and low socioeconomic status individuals. We recommend that governments and relevant authorities should utilize mass media to disseminate information and cultivate public understanding of climate change.     

The impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Belgrade (Serbia) during summer

In this paper, we are dealing with two extreme events in temperature and population – heat wave and mortality. Our aim is to assess the relation between high temperatures and daily mortality counts during the summer months in the period 2000–2010 in Belgrade (Serbia). In order to establish this connection, we used Poisson regression and two different measures of heat wave: Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) and apparent temperature (T _app). As mean daily temperature increases over 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles, average number of deaths increases for 15.3% (p?<?.01), 22.4% (p?<?.05) and 32.0% (insignificant for p?<?.1). We tested three different thresholds (90th, 95th, 99th) for WSDI and T _app in order to separate the hottest heat-wave episodes. On average, mortality is higher than expected for 13.4%, 16.7% and 28.3% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for WSDI) and 16.1%, 17.3% and 32.5% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for T _app). Estimated mortality excess with heat-wave indices is in accordance with regression output, meaning that WSDI and T _app are good tools for heat-wave identification. During the most severe episode in July 2007, absolute temperature maximum (43.6°C) and daily maximum mortality counts (94 dead) were recorded in the same day (24 July 2007).     

Mitigation of the heat island effect in urban New Jersey

Implementation of urban heat island (UHI) mitigation strategies such as increased vegetative cover and higher-albedo surface materials can reduce the impacts of biophysical hazards in cities, including heat stress related to elevated temperatures, air pollution and associated public health effects. Such strategies also can lower the demand for air-conditioning-related energy production. Since local impacts of global climate change may be intensified in areas with UHIs, mitigation strategies could play an increasingly important role as individuals and communities adapt to climate change. We use CITYgreen, a GIS-based modeling application, to estimate the potential benefits of urban vegetation and reflective roofs as UHI mitigation strategies for case study sites in and around Newark and Camden, New Jersey.

The analysis showed that urban vegetation can reduce health hazards associated with the UHI effect by removing pollutants from the air. Less affluent, inner-city neighborhoods are the ones in which the hazard potential of the UHI effect is shown to be greatest. However, these neighborhoods have less available open space for tree planting and therefore a lower maximum potential benefit. As the climate warms, these neighborhoods may face greater consequences due to interactions between the UHI effect and global climate change. Results also show that urban vegetation is an effective and economically efficient way to reduce energy consumption and costs at the sites.     

Reviews

Alex de Waal Famine Crimes: Politics and the Disaster Relief Industry in Africa Keith Smith Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster Kenneth Hewitt Regions of Risk: A Geographical Introduction to Disasters John Seaman The Public Health Consequences of Disasters John Prendergast Frontline Diplomacy. Humanitarian Aid and Conflict in Africa John Prendergast Crisis Response. Humanitarian Band-Aids in Sudan and Somalia Christopher Hood and David K.C. Jones Accident and Design: Contemporary Debates on Risk Management D. Hulme and M. Edwards NGOs, States and Donors. Too Close for Comfort? James C. Hathaway Reconceiving International Refugee Law Rhona Flin Sitting in the Hot Seat Donald Meichenbaum On Treating Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder: A Handbook and Practice Manual for Therapy R. Scarpa and R.I. Tilling Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards Hanna Schmuck-Widmann Living with Floods: Survival Strategies of Char-dwellers in Bangladesh     

Geographical analysis of commercial motor vehicle hazardous materials crashes on the Oregon state highway system

Crashes on highways frequently cause hazardous material exposure to the public and the environment. We evaluated differences in hazardous materials-related crashes vs. non-hazardous-material-related commercial motor vehicle crashes occurring from 2000 to 2006 on the Oregon state highway network. The two groups were compared for crash characteristics by χ² analysis, and spatial clustering was tested using Ripley's K-function and kernel density estimator analyses. There were 8,622 total commercial motor vehicle crashes, 232 being hazardous-materials related. Hazardous materials-related crashes were not significantly associated with different road surface conditions, weather conditions or cause of crash. Hazardous materials-related crashes were associated more frequently with late evening/early morning hours and under artificial lights or at dusk. The commercial motor vehicle drivers in hazardous materials-related crashes were less frequently at fault than ones in the non-hazardous materials-related crashes. The planar Ripley's K-function indicated non-hazardous materials-related crashes were more clustered than hazardous materials-related ones. Both cohorts clustered at the 12–14 mile range. The kernel density estimator analysis indicated hazardous materials-related clusters are small and discrete along the main highway corridors, non-Hazardous materials-related ones seemed to form elongated confluent clusters along all highways. Since there seem to be few differences between the two cohorts in characteristics of the crashes and the frequency of hazardous materials-related crashes is low compared to the total commercial vehicle crashes, future geographical studies may focus on characteristics of all commercial motor vehicle crashes.     

Willingness to pay for agricultural flood insurance in the Mekong River Delta

Increasing urbanization and industrial development upstream of the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam (MRD) including the construction of a series of dams for hydroelectricity generation is changing the downstream risk of flooding. Concerns about the likely influence of global climate change and rising sea levels add further uncertainty to this risk that threatens the livelihood of farmers. With this in mind and in view of the under-developed state of the market for crop insurance in the MRD, we survey rice growers to explore their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for crop insurance by using a choice experiment. The experimental design comprised five attributes, including the type of peril covered – riverine flooding (flooding); flooding triggered by tidal regimes (inundation); or flooding, inundation and wind damage – type of provider; extent of cover and deductible and premium. Two hundred and twenty-six rice-growing farmers were surveyed with each farmer responding to six different choices. Our study shows that WTPs for an insurance plan covering a loss up to 2 million VND/1000m²/farming season and having a deductible of 25% of the potential (profit) crop value varied between 200,000 and 500,000?VND/1000m² (1USD?=?22,550 Vietnamese Dong – VND) for each rice growing season, implying a potential market for crop insurance.     

The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.     

Corruption in emergency procurement

Corruption in emergency procurement reduces the resources available for life‐saving operations, lowers the quality of products and services provided, and diverts aid from those who need it most. ¹ 1 The paper is based on a study for a project of the Chr Michelsen Institute (CMI)'s U4 Anti‐Corruption Resource Centre entitled ‘Corruption in Emergencies’ (see http://www.u4.no ).
It also negatively influences public support for humanitarian relief, both in the affected country and abroad. This paper aims to unpack and analyse the following question in order to mitigate risk: how and where does corruption typically occur, and what can be done? Suggested strategies reflect a multi‐layered approach that stresses internal agency control mechanisms, conflict‐sensitive management, and the need for common systems among operators.     

Disaster coordination preparedness of soft-target organisations

This paper introduces a network‐enabled model to examine the disaster coordination preparedness of soft‐target organisations (STOs). Little attention is devoted to this matter in recent research. This study places emphasis on such organisations and the proposed model tests hypotheses related to network relation and coordination preparedness. It analyses the data set entitled ‘Preparedness of large retail malls to prevent and respond to terrorist attack, 2004′, which contains 120 completed surveys of security directors of retail malls in the United States. ¹ 1 See http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/TPDRC/studies/21140 .
The following questions form the basis of this study: ‘What do STOs need to be better prepared to respond to a disaster?’; ‘How does network relationship between STOs and emergency agencies affect the coordination preparedness of STOs for disaster recovery?’; and ‘Which centrality measure needs to be followed to measure network variables in order to analyse coordination preparedness?’ The results show that STOs with a high level of connectedness and strong ties to other emergency agencies are better prepared for disaster response.     

我国Natech事件分布规律及涉水Natech事件致因分析

为弥补我国自然—技术事件(Natech事件)案例研究空白,基于多种数据挖掘方法对近20 a公开报道的自然灾害诱发的技术事故案例进行收集整理,建立了Natech事件数据库.对该类事件时空分布、行业分布进行交叉分析后发现:Natech事件季节特征明显,暴雨和大风是主要肇因,建筑业和交通运输业脆弱性较强.在引入不利气象情景对...     

Characterizing the urban heat island in current and future climates in New Jersey

Climate change caused by increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases is a long-term climate hazard with the potential to alter the intensity, temporal pattern, and spatial extent of the urban heat island (UHI) in metropolitan regions. Particular meteorological conditions—including high temperature, low cloud cover, and low average wind speed—tend to intensify the heat island effect. Analyses of existing archived climate data for the vicinities of Newark and Camden, New Jersey indicate urban to suburban/rural temperature differences over the previous half-century. Surface temperatures derived from a Landsat thermal image for each site were also analyzed for spatial patterns of heat islands. Potential interactions between the UHI effect and projected changes in temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover are then examined under a range of climate change scenarios, encompassing different greenhouse gas emissions trajectories. The scenarios include those utilized in the Metropolitan East Coast Regional Assessment of Climate Variability and Change and the A2 and B2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

The UHI effect was detected in Newark and Camden in both satellite surface-temperature and meteorological station airtemperature records. The average difference in urban—nonurban minimum temperatures was 3.0 °C for the Newark area and 1.5 °C for Camden. Extrapolation of current trends and the selected global climate models (GCMs) project that temperatures in the case study areas will continue to warm in the current century, as they have over the past half-century. An initial analysis of global climate scenarios shows that wind speed may decline, and that cloud cover may increase in the coming decades. These generally small countervailing tendencies suggest that urban—nonurban temperature differences may be maintained under climate change.

Overall warmer conditions throughout the year may extend the spatial and temporal dimensions of the urban-suburban heat complex. The incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase with interactions between the increased frequency and duration of heat waves and the UHI effect. Camden and Newark will likely be subjected to higher temperatures, and areas experiencing UHI-like conditions and temperature extremes will expand. Thus, urban heat island-related hazard potential is likely to increase in a warmer climate.     

新型低氮旋流燃烧器在马莲台发电厂中的应用

为了达到降低发电厂NOx排放物、改善生态环境的目的,针对采用DDR旋流燃烧器产生NOx较高的问题,马莲台发电厂在脱硝改造工程中大胆采用新型低氮燃烧器与SCR烟气脱硝相结合的技术,取得了良好效果。结果表明:燃烧器改造后锅炉运行各项指标正常,锅炉效率略有提高,NOx排放浓度明显减少,由原来的679.85 mg/Nm³降为290 mg/Nm³,取得了巨大的社会效益和经济效益。     

近场地震下评估单层网壳响应的地震动强度参数分析

为了选取近场地震动作用下适于评估单层网壳结构响应的地震动强度参数,以3个矢跨比不同的单层球面网壳和5个矢跨比、长宽比不同的单层柱面网壳为模型,从相关性、有效性及充分性3个方面对多个地震动强度参数进行分析评价。结果表明,对于单层球面网壳结构,水平向的相关系数大于竖向的相关系数.加速度反应谱值S_a(T_1)和S_a(T_2)为近场地震动作用下适于评估单层球面网壳结构响应的地震动强度参数;对于单层柱面网壳结构,跨度方向的相关系数大于长度方向和竖向的相关系数,近场地震动作用下适于评估单层柱面网壳结构响应的地震动强度参数为S_a(T)、速度反应谱值S_v(T)和位移反应谱值S_d(T),当单层柱面网壳的长宽比和矢跨比较大时,T应取第一阶振型的自振周期T_1,当单层柱面网壳的长宽比和矢跨比较小时,T应取第二、三阶振型的自振周期T_2和T_3。     

Mapping social vulnerability to flood hazard in Norfolk,England

In this paper, we present a method to assess social vulnerability through the creation of an Open Source Vulnerability Index (OS-VI). The OS-VI provides context to environmental hazards and allows NGOs and local agencies to better tailor services and provide targeted pre-emptive vulnerability reduction and resilience-building programmes. A deductive indicator-based approach is utilised to incorporate a wide range of vulnerability indicators known to influence vulnerability. Unlike many vulnerability indices, the OS-VI incorporates flood risk as well as the loss of capabilities and the importance of key services (health facilities and food stores) through the measurement of accessibility when determining an area's level of social vulnerability. The index was developed using open-source mapping and analysis software and is composed completely of open-source data from national data sets. The OS-VI was designed at the national level, with data for all proxy indicators available across the entirety of England and Wales. For this paper, a case study is presented concerned with one English county, Norfolk.

Highlights

• We produce an open-source vulnerability index.

• Accessibility to health care found to be severely affected by flooding.

• High vulnerability areas found to be disproportionately impacted by flooding.

• Urban extent of an area found to increase its level of vulnerability.

• Flood affected areas more likely to be composed of elderly, sick and poor.

     

Comparing proximity measures of exposure to geostatistical estimates in environmental justice research

Abstract

Recent hazard literature frequently refers to sustainability and resilience as the guiding principles behind effective hazard planning. Certainly, structurally organizing communities to minimize effects of disasters and to recover quickly by restoring socio-economic vitality are laudable goals. However, while anticipating such outcomes is relatively easy from a theoretical standpoint, practical implementation of comprehensive plans is much more elusive. Indeed, relationships between community sustainability/resilience and hazards are complex involving many social, economic, political and physical factors. A conceptual framework for analysis of sustainability and resilience, then, is described based on three theoretical models, a mitigation model, a recovery model, and a structural-cognitive model. This framework is examined using data from Florida, USA, where local context, social and political activities, and economic concerns present difficulties in application. The question remains, therefore, to what extent can communities truly develop sustainable and resilient characteristics?     

Impact of climatic shocks on child human capital: evidence from young lives data

This study attempts to assess the impact of two different climatic shocks, drought and excessive rainfall/flood, as perceived by households on child human capital across four countries: Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam – countries with diverse socio-economic backgrounds. Human capital, in this context, subsumes both child learning and health outcomes. The data source is the Young Lives Study and cross-sectional household data on the older cohort of children (between 14 and 16 years of age) are utilized, for the year 2009. The enrolment rate, Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, Cloze test and Math test scores are used as proxies for child learning outcomes. The health outcome variables being studied are the WHO-defined Body Mass Index z-scores and Height for Age z-scores. The overall objective is to study heterogeneity in responses to shock in terms of the development of human capital across the set of countries considered. Additionally, the study elaborates on the role of institutional help, during crisis, and the role of household characteristics in buffering these climatic shocks.