燃煤价格对电厂盈亏影响的数据模型研究

深入分析火力发电厂运行成本的影响因子,包括运行时间、燃料价格、折旧和摊销、销售税金附加等.针对财务不确定性,基于年运行时间的BEp指标模型,剖析影响盈亏平衡的数学和财务原理,着重推导并建立基于燃煤价格变动的BEP指标模型,阐述燃煤价格向上浮动的极限值.组合使用两个BEp指标模型,形象表示指标图形的几何意义,为项目投资决策提供必要的依据,满足当前“厂网分营,竞价上网”的发展趋势.     

基于复制动态进化博弈的旅游资源可持续利用研究CSSCI

旅游资源是一种特殊的公共池塘资源,其开发利用具有非排他性和竞争性。基于进化博弈理论视角,构建资源动态模型和复制者动态模型,描述了资源动态和群体动态的均衡状态,分析了资源存量和群体构成同时演化时形成的复合系统动态的均衡点及其影响因素,探讨旅游资源作为一种特殊的公共池塘资源如何实现可持续利用。研果表明:1资源动态对确定均衡结果起着重要作用;2存在异质稳定均衡,即合作者和不合作者同时存在,从而使旅游资源作为公共池塘资源实现可持续开发成为可能;3社会获益、市场条件、市场价格、资源增长率、技术和利益主体的数量等是影响稳定均衡的重要因素。     

玉溪市土地资源利用程度的时空变化特征

通过对2002-2005年玉溪市土地资源分类面积数据的变化分析,利用土地利用程度综合指数模型以及土地利用程度变化模型统计了各地区土地资源利用程度在时间变化、空间分布上的特征.结果表明,玉溪市土地资源利用程度总体上呈现逐年增加的时间变化趋势,表明人类活动对土地资源利用程度的影响在加剧,尤其表现在建设用地的增加和未利用地的减少上.各区域间以玉溪市中心城区红塔区的土地资源利用程度最高;其次为通海县,土地资源利用程度较小的为澄江、江川、华宁等地.土地资源利用程度较高的地区人口密度也较大,表明受自然环境条件、经济社会发展状况的影响,玉溪市土地资源利用程度具有显著的空间差异.     

浅谈页岩气开发对水环境的影响

结合我国页岩气藏地质条件、开发工艺探讨了页岩气勘探开发对水环境的影响,包括页岩气开发中各建设工程对地表水和地下水的污染以及淡水资源的巨量消耗。进一步结合涪陵焦石坝片区页岩气勘探开发环境保护实践经验,提出了水环境保护措施及解决对策,建议优化页岩气开发规划,制定页岩气相关技术标准和规范,加强页岩气开采环境影响评价管理,推进清洁生产工艺研发,为页岩气的大规模开发提供参考和借鉴。     

新疆种植业土地利用变化及驱动力研究

种植业土地利用方式是关系农民增收的重要因素.采用主成分分析法,运用定量分析与定性描述的方法,全面分析了新疆 1978～2002年期间种植业土地利用变化的驱动因素.研究表明:影响新疆种植业土地利用规模的主要因素按影响力大小排列为科技进步、农业发展、农产品价格,而影响种植业结构变化的主要因素则有市场因素、粮食生产能力、产业政策.在此基础上,建立多元回归预测模型,为种植业土地合理利用提供评价依据,促进农民增收.     

TMDL中MOS的定量估算方法及其应用

为了分析TMDL水污染控制管理模式中安全临界值MOS的影响因素,采用FOEA法对MOS中模拟计算的不确定性进行定量估算,通过不同水质达标率条件下MOS的设定,探讨水环境管理中不确定性因素对MOS的影响;将TMDL应用于珠江三角洲佛山水道的水环境管理中,运用动态水环境数学模型、考虑潮周期达标率的环境容量优化模型及遗传算法对TMDL进行求解.研究结果表明,所采用的FOEA法能较为准确地反映模型的不确定性对MOS的影响,而且从水质达标率的角度出发能合理地考察环境管理中的不确定性因素对MOS的影响,为定量化探讨MOS的设定给出了可行的求解思路及方法.     

企业生态经营策略的影响因素分析——以滑雪度假企业经营为例

气候与环境变化不仅引起了各国政府制定对策,也逐渐推进企业实行生态经营策略。生态经营是实现持续发展的有效办法。通过对中韩两国8家滑雪度假企业的深入分析得知,影响企业生态经营策略的因素有企业规模、废弃物排放成本、资源化成本、产品特性、技术创新、政府政策等,企业经营所需资源的所属情况、企业的所有权构造、社会团体的活动也可能产生一定的影响。建议中国企业在政府与社会的推动下,结合企业文化建设,积极参与生态经营,实现低碳经济时代的可持续发展。     

遗址旅游影响因素实证研究——以河南商丘古城为例

综述了国内外遗址旅游的影响因素.结合案例地旅游发展现状,归纳了遗址旅游的影响因素,构建了遗址旅游影响因素模型,结果验证了模型假设,影响因素各维度对遗址旅游的贡献大小依次是:内部设施、人文环境、遗址资源、游客需求和价格因素.在此基础上,对案例地未来的旅游发展提出了对策.     

水库库区油田勘探对环境的影响及对策

随着国民经济的发展,对石油的需求量迅猛增加,石油部门势必要不断地进行新油田勘探开发工作。在水库库区进行油田勘探开发,如不采取恰当有力的保护措施,对环境造成的影响将是严重的。以石油部门在内蒙他拉手水库库区进行的油田勘探开发为例,可以看出石油开发对库区生态及环境有如下的影响：一、油田勘探对库区环境的影响石油勘探部门近几年来在他拉于水库库区迸行了大规模无任何保护措施的石油勘探和开采活动（85％以上的探井和采油井都位于他拉干水库北岸）,对库区水资源、草场、林地和渔业等生态环境造成了严重的破坏和影响。1、库…     

产品定价与环境保护的关系探讨

依据外部环境成本各组成部分在不同阶段所发生的费用，从4个方面对环境成本进行分析，并把外部环境成本纳入产品的定价体系。新的定价体系能够正确地反映产品的资源利用率和企业活动对环境造成影响的程度，促使企业把外部环境成本当作提升产品价格竞争力的制衡因素，从而使企业经济活动对环境的损害降低到最小。     

Impact of different public E&P policies on natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan

Low wellhead domestic gas prices over the past few years have led to the beginning of a shortage in natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan. Gas demand steadily rises in all sectors for being an economical fuel as compare to substitutes. In the view of foregoing consumption trend, the demand for gas is expected to grow with a higher pace during the 2010s. On the contrary, indigenous gas reserves are running out and cannot keep up with the demand. This paper examines the extent of upstream activities in different petroleum policy regimes. The wellhead price for indigenous gas is compared with the prices of alternatives (for example, gas import prices). In order to put the problem in perspective, the relationship between wellhead gas price and cumulative gas reserves in Pakistan are analyzed and we find that the looming gas shortage can be ameliorated in the short-run and eliminated in the long-run through incentivized wellhead price. To put it briefly, the idea is mooted to first take advantage of huge domestic reserves to ensure competitive consumer prices for gas. The findings are applicable to several other economies with under-developed natural resources.     

Mineral reserves under price uncertainty

National reporting organizations and regulatory bodies for the minerals and mining sector are requiring publicly reported Ore-Reserve estimates to take account of uncertainties. Whilst methodologies that account for physical uncertainty appear relatively well developed, methodologies which can take account of economic uncertainty appear much less so. To counter this shortfall, we present an efficient and general methodology which can quantify the effect of price uncertainty within reserve estimates, providing both the expected reserve size and the associated distribution (box whisker plot). This statistical information can be used by interested parties to understand precisely where the reserve risks lie, which we highlight in a worked example.     

Mineral reserves: Projected lifetimes and security of supply

This article analyses the lifetimes of reserves of three dozen important minerals. Despite the high rate of their extraction in the past 30 years, the recorded reserves of these non-renewable materials were higher in 1981 than in 1950 and they seem to meet foreseeable demand for a long time to come, as indicated by the estimated static lifetime for each of the minerals covered. The dynamic nature of ‘reserves’ is emphasized: further exploration and scientific and technological advance will add to the present proven reserves, and at a higher price further resources will be ‘upgraded’ into commercially exploitable reserves. Apparent long-term security can be disturbed by natural disasters, political events or other factors, especially in the case of minerals whose reserves and production are highly concentrated in one country. However, any such interruption in the continuity of supply is likely to be short-lived.     

Evaluating a small deposit next to an economically viable gold mine in West Africa from the points of view of the mining company,the government and the local community

This paper addresses the question of evaluating how much the different stakeholders stand to gain from a mining project. By carefully analysing the breakdown of the cash-flows generated, we were able to estimate the amounts received by the local community and by the national community (outside the mining area), the taxes and royalties received by the government and the profits made by the mining company. A real options framework was used to take account of the inherent uncertainty on the commodity price and the reserves, and the operating flexibility (that is, the possibility for the company to stop mining if the commodity price drops and/or the reserves prove to be lower than that had been envisaged). A synthetic case-study of a gold mine in West Africa was used to illustrate how this procedure could be applied in practice. By using the real option framework we were able to envisage scenarios for developing an extension to a deposit as a function of future values of the commodity price. The procedure proposed should provide governments and NGOs with more objective data for making policy decisions.     

CONSERVATIONAL WATER PRICING FOR INCREASED WATER SUPPLY BENEFITS1

ABSTRACT: A study was undertaken to see if benefits from water supply could be increased by utilizing price-usage information in reservoir design studies. Three pricing policies were examined. The first policy assumed no price-use relationship, and quantity demanded was based on existing community usage with a low water rate. The price of water was set to recover system costs. A price-use relationship was assumed in the second policy and the water rate was constant. The price of water was determined from the associated system which provided maximum expected net benefits. The third policy assumed the price-use relationship and the price charged for water during each billing period was a non-linear function of storage which increased as the amount of water in storage at the beginning of the period decreased. It was found that the use of the conservation pricing policies substantially reduced storage requirements while providing demonstrable net benefits to the community and a large average supply. The conservation pricing policies substantially lowered the average price paid for water. The effect of uncertainty in consumer response to changes in price was studied by using a probabilistic price-use relationship. This uncertainty did not significantly reduce the effectiveness of the conservation policy. It was concluded that demand management by the use of a proper pricing policy could significantly increase net water supply benefits to a community.     

Oil and gas reserves of the Middle East and North Africa

A quantitative estimate of the petroleum reserves of the Middle East and North Africa is presented and analysed in terms of the region's ability to meet current market demand for a sweet light crude. Costs of Middle East production are compared with those of other oil-producing regions. With an average costs of US$4/bbl, the Middle East has both the largest oil reserves and the lowest cost oil in the world. While new and improved technology of exploration and production may lessen this price advantage in the future, it will not eliminate it. Because of these two factors, the Middle East will continue to play an important role on the world energy stage well into the next century.     

The effect of recycling price uncertainty on municipal waste management choices

This paper analyzes the effect of price uncertainty and irreversible investment on the decision of municipalities to switch from landfill waste disposal to recycling by developing a model to predict recycling adoption behavior and applying it to empirical data. It is shown that uncertainty regarding the price of recycled materials may induce a risk neutral municipality to prefer landfill disposal, even when recycling is less expensive. A model is developed to describe the switching process and estimate its parameters using empirical data from 79 municipalities in Israel. The model is then used to predict municipalities' recycling adoption decisions under various assumptions regarding price uncertainty. The results support the hypothesis that price uncertainty is a major obstacle for recycling. Finally, several options for price stabilization are sketched and it is argued that these policies may be effective in establishing viable recycling markets.     

US uranium deposits: A geostatistical model

The frequency distributions of both grade and size of metal deposits may be well approximated by lognormal distribution functions. Using data on presently viable deposits and a simplified function which links production cost to deposit grade and size, a bivariate lognormal deposit grade/size distribution may be calibrated for a given geological environment. Exploration is introduced by assuming that the proportion discovered of the potential uranium reserve available at or below a given production cost can be represented by a function of the average deposit size and the unit exploration expenditure. As output the model derives estimates of total reserves linked to maximum production costs and to exploration expenditure where the latter may be expressed either as expenditure per lb of mineral discovered or as a given percentage of operating profit. The model is offered as a basis for discussion, and the conclusions are tentative.     

Social interactions and resource ownership in two private protected areas of Paraguay

This paper describes the results of field research to dissect how social interactions differ between two reserves in Paraguay having very different styles of governance. The two reserves were Mbaracayú Natural Forest Reserve (Reserva Natural del Bosque de Mbaracayú, RNBM) and San Rafael Managed Resource Reserve (Reserva de Recursos Manejados San Rafael, RRMSR). RNBM is a private reserve owned by a non-governmental organisation, while RRMSR is a publicly-managed reserve, albeit with a substantial degree of private land ownership. Both reserves are intended to protect Atlantic Forest, one of the five world biodiversity 'hotspots', and also one of the most highly threatened. Each reserve and its buffer zone comprises a set of stakeholders, including indigenous communities and farmers, and the paper explores the interactions between these and the management regime. Indeed, while the management regimes of the two reserves are different, one being highly top-down (RNBM) and the other more socially inclusive (RRMSR), the issues that they have to deal with are much the same. However, while both management regimes will readily acknowledge the need to address poverty, inequality appears to be a far more sensitive issue. Whereas this may be expected for the privately-owned RNBM it is perhaps more surprising in RRMSR even when allowing for the fact that much of the land in the latter is in private hands. It is argued that the origins of this sensitivity rest within the broader features of Paraguayan society, and the prevalence of private land ownership. Yet ironically, it is the inequality in land ownership that is perhaps the most significant threat to conservation in both reserves. Therefore, while reserve-level analyses can provide some insight into the driving forces at play in the interaction between conservation and sustainable management, larger scales may be necessary to gain a fuller appreciation of the dynamics operating at site level. Even in a society with a history of centralised control these dynamics may be surprising.     

Sustainability of fisheries through marine reserves: a robust modeling analysis

Among the many factors that contribute to overexploitation of marine fisheries, the role played by uncertainty is important. This uncertainty includes both the scientific uncertainties related to the resource dynamics or assessments and the uncontrollability of catches. Some recent works advocate for the use of marine reserves as a central element of future stock management. In the present paper, we study the influence of protected areas upon fisheries sustainability through a simple dynamic model integrating non-stochastic harvesting uncertainty and a constraint of safe minimum biomass level. Using the mathematical concept of invariance kernel in a robust and worst-case context, we examine through a formal modeling analysis how marine reserves might guarantee viable fisheries. We also show how sustainability requirement is not necessarily conflicting with optimization of catches. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the main findings.