Forecasting Alpine Vegetation Change Using Repeat Sampling and a Novel Modeling Approach

Global change affects alpine ecosystems by, among many effects, by altering plant distributions and community composition. However, forecasting alpine vegetation change is challenged by a scarcity of studies observing change in fixed plots spanning decadal-time scales. We present in this article a probabilistic modeling approach that forecasts vegetation change on Niwot Ridge, CO using plant abundance data collected from marked plots established in 1971 and resampled in 1991 and 2001. Assuming future change can be inferred from past change, we extrapolate change for 100 years from 1971 and correlate trends for each plant community with time series environmental data (1971–2001). Models predict a decreased extent of Snowbed vegetation and an increased extent of Shrub Tundra by 2071. Mean annual maximum temperature and nitrogen deposition were the primary a posteriori correlates of plant community change. This modeling effort is useful for generating hypotheses of future vegetation change that can be tested with future sampling efforts.     

Characteristics and management modes of domestic waste in rural areas of developing countries: a case study of China

A huge accumulation of domestic waste has caused serious environmental contamination in rural areas of developing countries (RADIC). The characteristics and management of domestic waste are carefully discussed, based on field surveys and a literature review. The results indicate that the generation in most of RADIC is less than the median of 0.521 kg day⁻¹ per capita in China, and much smaller than in rural areas of developed countries (RADEC). Organic waste and inert waste with an accumulative mass percentage of 72.31% are dominant components of domestic waste in the rural areas of China. There are trends of increasing amounts of kitchen waste, paper/cardboard, and plastic/rubber and a decreasing trend of ash waste. The RADIC composition of domestic waste had a high content of organic waste and a low content of recyclable waste compared to the RADEC. Domestic waste has good compressibility and a light bulk density ranging from 40 to 650 kg m⁻³. The moisture, ash, combustible, and calorific values of domestic waste were 53.31%, 18.03%, 28.67%, and 5368 kJ kg⁻¹, respectively. The domestic waste has an abundance of nutrients including organic matter (39.05%), nitrogen (1.02%), phosphorus (0.50%), and potassium (1.42%). In RADIC, domestic waste can be used as an agricultural manure only after it has been collected and sorted for the potential risk of heavy metal accumulation. Based on these characteristics of domestic waste and the different situations of rural areas, four waste management modes including centralized treatment, decentralized treatment, group treatment, and mobile treatment are designed and discussed.

     

Altitude dependence of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in surface soil from Tibetan Plateau, China

Remote mountain areas besides high latitude regions are beginning to receive increased attention in studying the transport and behavior of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). In the present work, surface soil samples were collected from the Tibetan Plateau, the highest plateau in the world which includes the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma, to investigate the levels and trends of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) along the altitudinal gradient. The average PCB and PBDE concentrations were 185.6 ng kg⁻¹ dry weight (dw) (range 47.1–422.6 ng kg⁻¹ dw) and 11.1 ng kg⁻¹ dw (range 4.3–34.9 ng kg⁻¹ dw), respectively. Regression analysis between the log-transformed TOC-normalized concentrations and the altitudes of the sampling sites showed two opposite trends with regard to altitude dependence: negative relationship with altitude below about 4500 m followed by a positive altitude dependence above this point. Considering minimum anthropogenic activities and very sparse precipitation in the north of Himalayas, the trends above 4500 m imply that the significant altitude dependence of these two groups of POPs were irrespective of pollution sources, but could be predicted by the global distillation effect involving cold condensation in high altitude mountain areas. Increasing levels of heavier congeners were found in higher altitude sites, although the lighter congeners were the main contributors to the total amount, suggesting that less volatile congeners seem to become enriched easier than those more volatile at higher altitudes in this region.     

Growth variation of Scots pine across a pollution gradient on the Kola Peninsula, Russia

Decadal exposure to emissions from a non-ferrous smelter has damaged the forest ecosystems surrounding the city of Monchegorsk located on the Kola Peninsula in northwestern Russia. We use the methods of tree-ring analysis to study the areal extent and timing of recent growth reductions of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in the region surrounding the smelter in Monchegorsk. Reduced growth of Scots pine was observed up to 30 km southwest of the smelter. This directional gradient of forest damage is related to the dispersal of pollutants which is influenced by the prevailing northern winds and local topographic features. Old Scots pines (age 200 years +) appeared to be more sensitive than younger ones: growth reductions of old trees had started earlier and reductions were observed farther from the smelter than for younger trees. The findings are compared to a classification which describes the state of forest ecosystems based on the occurrence of certain plant species; the classification matched well with the observed growth trends. Pollution-induced changes in the climatic signal in tree-rings are also studied. The strong dependence of growth on mid-summer temperatures, typical for Scots pine on high latitudes, proved to be insensitive to effects of pollution. Changes in the climate-growth relationship took place decades after growth trends had started to decline.     

Influence of regional development policies and clean technology adoption on future air pollution exposure

Future air pollution emissions in the year 2030 were estimated for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in central California using a combined system of land use, mobile, off-road, stationary, area, and biogenic emissions models. Four scenarios were developed that use different assumptions about the density of development and level of investment in transportation infrastructure to accommodate the expected doubling of the SJV population in the next 20 years. Scenario 1 reflects current land-use patterns and infrastructure while scenario 2 encouraged compact urban footprints including redevelopment of existing urban centers and investments in transit. Scenario 3 allowed sprawling development in the SJV with reduced population density in existing urban centers and construction of all planned freeways. Scenario 4 followed currently adopted land use and transportation plans for the SJV. The air quality resulting from these urban development scenarios was evaluated using meteorology from a winter stagnation event that occurred on December 15th, 2000 to January 7th 2001. Predicted base-case PM2.5 mass concentrations within the region exceeded 35 μg m^?3 over the 22-day episode. Compact growth reduced the PM2.5 concentrations by ～1 μg m^?3 relative to the base-case over most of the SJV with the exception of increases (～1 μg m^?3) in urban centers driven by increased concentrations of elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC). Low-density development increased the PM2.5 concentrations by 1–4 μg m^?3 over most of the region, with decreases (0.5–2 μg m^?3) around urban areas. Population-weighted average PM2.5 concentrations were very similar for all development scenarios ranging between 16 and 17.4 μg m^?3. Exposure to primary PM components such as EC and OC increased 10–15% for high density development scenarios and decreased by 11–19% for low-density scenarios. Patterns for secondary PM components such as nitrate and ammonium ion were almost exactly reversed, with a 10% increase under low-density development and a 5% decrease under high density development. The increased human exposure to primary pollutants such as EC and OC could be predicted using a simplified analysis of population-weighted primary emissions. Regional planning agencies should develop thresholds of population-weighted primary emissions exposure to guide the development of growth plans. This metric will allow them to actively reduce the potential negative impacts of compact growth while preserving the benefits.     

Spatially differentiated and source-specific population exposure to ambient urban air pollution

Models assessing exposure to air pollution often focus on macro-scale estimates of exposure to all types of sources for a particular pollutant across an urban study area. While results based on these models may aid policy makers in identifying larger areas of elevated exposure risk, they often do not differentiate the proportion of population exposure attributable to different polluting sources (e.g. traffic or industrial). In this paper, we introduce a population exposure modeling system that integrates air dispersion modeling, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and population exposure techniques to spatially characterize a source-specific exposure to ambient air pollution for an entire urban population at a fine geographical scale. By area, total population exposure in Dallas County in 2000 was more attributable to vehicle polluting sources than industrial polluting sources at all levels of exposure. Population exposure was moderately correlated with vehicle sources (r = 0.440, p < 0.001) and weakly with industrial sources (r = 0.069, p = 0.004). Population density was strongly correlated with total exposure (r = 0.896, p < 0.001) but was not significantly correlated with individual or combined sources. The results of this study indicate that air quality assessments must incorporate more than industrial or vehicle polluting sources-based population exposure values alone, but should consider multiple sources. The population exposure modeling system proposed in this study shows promise for use by municipal authorities, policy makers, and epidemiologists in evaluating and controlling the quality of the air in the process of urban planning and mitigation measures.     

Natural VOC emissions from forests in Poland

On the basis of the last inventory of forests and climatic conditions in Poland, a national evaluation of the emissions of reactive volatile organic compounds (VOCs) was carried out. Calculations took into account the composition and age structure of forests as well as the temperature dependencies of VOC emission rate for the main European forest-forming tree species. In the case of isoprene, the dependence on illumination level and day length was also taken into account. Estimations were made for all 49 administrative regions of Poland. Depending on weather conditions in different years, the total VOC emission of Polish forests can be in the range 186–763 kt yr⁻¹. For instance, for a moderately warm year, 1992, it was estimated at 440.6 kt, which represents 25% of the total VOC emissions in Poland.     

Disaggregation of nation-wide dynamic population exposure estimates in The Netherlands: Applications of activity-based transport models

Traditional exposure studies that link concentrations with population data do not always take into account the temporal and spatial variations in both concentrations and population density. In this paper we present an integrated model chain for the determination of nation-wide exposure estimates that incorporates temporally and spatially resolved information about people's location and activities (obtained from an activity-based transport model) and about ambient pollutant concentrations (obtained from a dispersion model). To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that such an integrated exercise was successfully carried out in a fully operational modus for all models under consideration. The evaluation of population level exposure in The Netherlands to NO₂ at different time-periods, locations, for different subpopulations (gender, socio-economic status) and during different activities (residential, work, transport, shopping) is chosen as a case-study to point out the new features of this methodology. Results demonstrate that, by neglecting people's travel behaviour, total average exposure to NO₂ will be underestimated by 4% and hourly exposure results can be underestimated by more than 30%. A more detailed exposure analysis reveals the intra-day variations in exposure estimates and the presence of large exposure differences between different activities (traffic > work > shopping > home) and between subpopulations (men > women, low socio-economic class > high socio-economic class). This kind of exposure analysis, disaggregated by activities or by subpopulations, per time of day, provides useful insight and information for scientific and policy purposes. It demonstrates that policy measures, aimed at reducing the overall (average) exposure concentration of the population may impact in a different way depending on the time of day or the subgroup considered. From a scientific point of view, this new approach can be used to reduce exposure misclassification.     

Plant and Vegetation Dynamics on Disko Island,West Greenland: Snapshots Separated by Over 40 Years

We report on a revisit in 2009 to sites where vegetation was recorded in 1967 and 1970 on Disko Island, West Greenland. Re-sampling of the same clones of the grass Phleum alpinum after 39 years showed complete stability in biometrics but dramatic earlier onset of various phenological stages that were not related to changes in population density. In a fell-field community, there was a net species loss, but in a herb-slope community, species losses balanced those that were gained. The type of species establishing and increasing in frequency and/or cover abundance at the fell-field site, particularly prostrate dwarf shrubs, indicates a possible start of a shift towards a heath, rather than a fell-field community. At the herb-slope site, those species that established or increased markedly in frequency and/or cover abundance indicate a change to drier conditions. This is confirmed both by the decrease in abundance of Alchemilla glomerulans and Epilobium hornemanii, and the drying of a nearby pond. The causes of these changes are unknown, although mean annual temperature has risen since 1984.     

Do fish growth rates correlate with PCB body burdens?

We evaluated whether growth rates of six fish species correlated with PCB concentrations in a moderately-to-heavily polluted freshwater ecosystem. Using a large dataset (n = 984 individuals), and after accounting for growth effects related to fish age, habitat, sex, and lipids, growth correlated significantly, but positively with lipid-corrected PCB concentrations for 4 of 6 species. Remaining species showed no correlations between growth and PCBs. Comparisons with regional, lentic growth averages for four species confirmed growth was on par and in three of four cases higher than regional averages in the PCB-polluted ecosystem. We conclude that for these species, at the range of concentrations examined, these PCBs do not exert negative impacts on growth. Rather, factors often cited as influential to growth were also driving growth trends in this study. Future studies that evaluate whether pollution affects growth must account for major growth drivers prior to attributing growth differentials to pollution alone.     

Influence of environmental factors on the response of a natural population of Daphnia magna (Crustacea: Cladocera) to spinosad and Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis in Mediterranean coastal wetlands

The present study was undertaken to assess the impact of a candidate mosquito larvicide, spinosad (8, 17 and 33 μg L⁻¹) on a field population of Daphnia magna under natural variations of water temperature and salinity, using Bti (0.16 and 0.50 μL L⁻¹) as the reference larvicide. Microcosms (125 L) were placed in a shallow temporary marsh where D. magna was naturally present. The peak of salinity observed during the 21-day observation period may have been partly responsible for the decrease of daphnid population density in all the microcosms. It is also probably responsible for the absence of recovery in the microcosms treated with spinosad which caused a sharp decrease of D. magna abundance within the first two days following treatment whereas Bti had no effect. These results suggest that it may be difficult for a field population of daphnids to cope simultaneously with natural (water salinity and temperature) and anthropogenic (larvicides) stressors.     

Circumpolar status of Arctic ptarmigan: Population dynamics and trends

Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are Arctic birds with a circumpolar distribution but there is limited knowledge about their status and trends across their circumpolar distribution. Here, we compiled information from 90 ptarmigan study sites from 7 Arctic countries, where almost half of the sites are still monitored. Rock ptarmigan showed an overall negative trend on Iceland and Greenland, while Svalbard and Newfoundland had positive trends, and no significant trends in Alaska. For willow ptarmigan, there was a negative trend in mid-Sweden and eastern Russia, while northern Fennoscandia, North America and Newfoundland had no significant trends. Both species displayed some periods with population cycles (short 3–6 years and long 9–12 years), but cyclicity changed through time for both species. We propose that simple, cost-efficient systematic surveys that capture the main feature of ptarmigan population dynamics can form the basis for citizen science efforts in order to fill knowledge gaps for the many regions that lack systematic ptarmigan monitoring programs.

     

Analysis of microbiological characteristics of wastewater along the polishing sequence of a treatment plant.

Microbial populations were studied by plate counts and flow cytometry along the polishing sequence of a wastewater plant. The comparison between plate count and flow cytometry showed comparable trends, but plate counts detected less than 10% of the total intact bacteria counted by flow cytometry. Six months monitoring showed that, in spite of the high ozone doses, the disinfection effect of ozonation was insignificant. This is in agreement with the variability of ozone demand, not only related to chemical oxygen demand or total suspended solids. Membrane-intact bacterial population decreased after ozonation, slightly regrew between ozone and biological activated carbon (BAC), and sharply increased after BAC, probably for damaged bacteria regrowth and saprophytes release; BAC effluent had the highest bacterial counts. Preliminary investigations on the effluent microbial composition showed that the beta Proteobacteria subclass is the most represented in the BAC effluent, whereas the alpha subclass is the most sensitive to ozone effect.     

Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) spiked sediment: Bioaccumulation and toxicity to the benthic invertebrate Hyalella azteca

Chronic toxicity and bioaccumulation of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) to Hyalella azteca was examined in a series of spiked sediment exposures. Juvenile H. azteca were exposed for 28 d (chronic) to a concentration series of D5 in two natural sediments of differing organic carbon content (O.C.) and particle size composition. The chronic, LC50s were 191 and 857 μg D5 g⁻¹ dry weight for Lakes Erie (0.5% O.C.) and Restoule (11% O.C.) respectively. Inhibition of growth only occurred with the L. Restoule spiked sediment with a resultant EC25 of 821 μg g⁻¹ dw. Lethality was a more sensitive endpoint than growth inhibition. Biota sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs, 28 d) were <1 indicating that D5 did not bioconcentrate based on lipid normalized tissue concentrations and organic carbon normalized sediment concentrations. Organic carbon (OC) in the sediment appeared to be protective, however normalization to OC did not normalize the toxicity. Normalization of D5 concentrations in the sediments to sand content did normalize the toxicity and LC50 values of 3180 and 3570 μg D5 g⁻¹ sand dw were determined to be statistically the same.     

Age dependence of the accumulation of organochlorine pollutants in brown trout (Salmo trutta) from a remote high mountain lake (Redó, Pyrenees)

Polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and DDT were examined in the muscle of brown trout (Salmo trutta) from a high mountain lake located in the Pyrenees (Catalonia, Spain) that was used as a model of these lacustrine environments. Results indicate that fish age is the main factor of variability among specimens in this population that is subjected to atmospheric inputs of the organochlorine compounds (OC). Increases of 2- and 20-fold between fish aged 1 year and 15 years old are found. The observed pattern cannot be explained in terms of fish size, condition factor, or muscle lipid content. Higher molecular weight compounds (higher lipophilicity) are better correlated with fish age than low molecular weight compounds. A transformation from 4,4'-DDT to 4,4'-DDE occurs in fish after ingestion; this results in amplified age-dependent signals, especially in male specimens. In contrast, PCB congener #180 has lower age dependence than the general OC group, which could be due to its high hydrophobicity (log K(ow) > 7). In any case, selective accumulation of hydrophobic compounds is already observed among younger fish (age, 1 year). Due to this effect, the relative OC composition does not reflect the main OC pollutants in the lake waters.     

Neural modelling of the spatial distribution of air pollutants

In this paper, a new method to calculate the average spatial distribution of air pollutants based on diffusive sampling measurements and artificial neural networks evaluation is presented. Most established methods like interpolation algorithms are inflexible or limited in considering important distribution parameters such as emission sources or land use. Of special interest are air quality measurements since they provide a direct view on the actual pollutant level. With diffusive samplers, the average concentration of many gaseous species over a large area can be determined simultaneously. During a project in Cyprus, NO₂ diffusive samplers were exposed at 270 sites in six month-long campaigns throughout one year providing the database for the model described in this paper. A multilayer perceptron was trained with the NO₂ measurement data and distribution parameters like population density and meteorological parameters using a 1 × 1 km grid covering Cyprus. The best fit could be achieved with an emissions inventory including previously simulated concentration plumes and population density data as input nodes for the neural network, resulting in realistic maps of the annual average distribution of NO₂ in Cyprus.     

Modelling plume rise and dispersion from pool fires

This paper describes an investigation into the behaviour of smoke plumes from pool fires, and the subsequent generation of empirical models to predict plume rise and dispersion from such a combustion source. Synchronous video records of plumes were taken from a series of small-scale (0.06–0.25m²) outdoor methanol/toluene pool fire experiments, and used to produce sets of images from which plume dimensions could be derived. Three models were used as a basis for the multiple regression analysis of the data set, in order to produce new equations for improved prediction. Actual plume observations from a large (20.7 m×14.2 m) aviation fuel pool fire were also used to test the predictions. The two theoretically based models were found to give a better representation of plume rise and dispersion than the empirical model based on measurements of small-scale fires. It is concluded that theoretical models tested on small-scale fires (heat output ≈70 kW) can be used to predict plume behaviour from much larger combustion sources (heat output ≈70 MW) under near neutral atmospheric conditions.     

Trends in near-surface ozone concentrations in Switzerland: the 1990s

A time series analysis of ozone monitoring data from several locations in Switzerland from 1991 to 1999 is presented. Different methods are used to address changes in the ozone level during these years and to account for the influence of changing meteorological conditions. The results show a slight decrease of the peaks but a highly significant increase of the mean value of around 0.5–0.9 ppb yr⁻¹. The frequency distribution has changed in the sense that very low values have become less frequent and that there is a strong increase in frequency of occurrence of half-hourly mean values between about 45 and 55 ppb. A selection procedure reveals slight tendencies towards different trends of afternoon ozone peaks in summer depending on weather and pollution situations. Ozone peaks tend to decrease on fair weather days at rural sites (but increase at urban sites) and show a small increase on cloudy and windy days. A non-linear regression model is used to estimate trends of summertime afternoon ozone peaks in the presence of meteorological variability. In the model, the long-term signal is additively split into a linear part and a part which is modulated by global radiation. The coefficients for both terms are statistically significant at many sites, with an increasing linear trend at the sites north of the Alps of around 1 ppb yr⁻¹ and a decrease of ozone peaks under fair weather conditions relative to cloudy conditions. When additionally considering the effect of precursor concentrations in the regression models, both trends are weakened, which means that they can partly be explained by changes in local to regional emissions. However, at the sites north of the Alps remains a tendency towards a positive linear “base trend” of around 0.4 ppb yr⁻¹. This could possibly be due to increasing background ozone concentrations.     

History effect of light and temperature on monoterpenoid emissions from Fagus sylvatica L.

Monoterpenoid emissions from Fagus sylvatica L. trees have been measured at light- and temperature-controlled conditions in a growth chamber, using Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) and the dynamic branch enclosure technique.De novo synthesized monoterpenoid Standard Emission Factors, obtained by applying the G97 algorithm (Guenther, 1997), varied between 2 and 32 μg g_DW^?1 h^?1 and showed a strong decline in late August and September, probably due to senescence.The response of monoterpenoid emissions to temperature variations at a constant daily light pattern could be well reproduced with a modified version of the MEGAN algorithm (Guenther et al., 2006), with a typical dependence on the average temperature over the past five days.The diurnal emissions at constant temperature showed a typical hysteretic behaviour, which could also be adequately described with the modified MEGAN algorithm by taking into account a dependence on the average light levels experienced by the trees during the past 10–13 h.The impact of the past light and temperature conditions on the monoterpenoid emissions from F. sylvatica L. was found to be much stronger than assumed in previous algorithms.Since our experiments were conducted under low light intensity, future studies should aim at confirming and completing the proposed algorithm updates in sunny conditions and natural environments.     

Forecasting human exposure to atmospheric pollutants in Portugal – A modelling approach

Air pollution has become one main environmental concern because of its known impact on human health. Aiming to inform the population about the air they are breathing, several air quality modelling systems have been developed and tested allowing the assessment and forecast of air pollution ambient levels in many countries. However, every day, an individual is exposed to different concentrations of atmospheric pollutants as he/she moves from and to different outdoor and indoor places (the so-called microenvironments). Therefore, a more efficient way to prevent the population from the health risks caused by air pollution should be based on exposure rather than air concentrations estimations. The objective of the present study is to develop a methodology to forecast the human exposure of the Portuguese population based on the air quality forecasting system available and validated for Portugal since 2005. Besides that, a long-term evaluation of human exposure estimates aims to be obtained using one-year of this forecasting system application. Additionally, a hypothetical 50% emission reduction scenario has been designed and studied as a contribution to study emission reduction strategies impact on human exposure.To estimate the population exposure the forecasting results of the air quality modelling system MM5-CHIMERE have been combined with the population spatial distribution over Portugal and their time-activity patterns, i.e. the fraction of the day time spent in specific indoor and outdoor places. The population characterization concerning age, work, type of occupation and related time spent was obtained from national census and available enquiries performed by the National Institute of Statistics. A daily exposure estimation module has been developed gathering all these data and considering empirical indoor/outdoor relations from literature to calculate the indoor concentrations in each one of the microenvironments considered, namely home, office/school, and other indoors (leisure activities like shopping areas, gym, theatre/cinema and restaurants). The results show how this developed modelling system can be useful to anticipate air pollution episodes and to estimate their effects on human health on a long-term basis. The two metropolitan areas of Porto and Lisbon are identified as the most critical ones in terms of air pollution effects on human health over Portugal in a long-term as well as in a short-term perspective. The coexistence of high concentration values and high population density is the key factor for these stressed areas. Regarding the 50% emission reduction scenario, the model results are significantly different for both pollutants: there is a small overall reduction in the individual exposure values of PM₁₀ (<10 μg m^?3 h), but for O₃, in contrast, there is an extended area where exposure values increase with emission reduction. This detailed knowledge is a prerequisite for the development of effective policies to reduce the foreseen adverse impact of air pollution on human health and to act on time.