Circumpolar status of Arctic ptarmigan: Population dynamics and trends

Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are Arctic birds with a circumpolar distribution but there is limited knowledge about their status and trends across their circumpolar distribution. Here, we compiled information from 90 ptarmigan study sites from 7 Arctic countries, where almost half of the sites are still monitored. Rock ptarmigan showed an overall negative trend on Iceland and Greenland, while Svalbard and Newfoundland had positive trends, and no significant trends in Alaska. For willow ptarmigan, there was a negative trend in mid-Sweden and eastern Russia, while northern Fennoscandia, North America and Newfoundland had no significant trends. Both species displayed some periods with population cycles (short 3–6 years and long 9–12 years), but cyclicity changed through time for both species. We propose that simple, cost-efficient systematic surveys that capture the main feature of ptarmigan population dynamics can form the basis for citizen science efforts in order to fill knowledge gaps for the many regions that lack systematic ptarmigan monitoring programs.

     

Overlapping consensus versus discourse in climate change policy: The case of Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund

This paper is motivated by the mismatch between emission of greenhouse gases and effective mitigation policies. Science now calls for every tool to be considered in order for radical changes to mitigate the situation more effectively. This paper considers Norway's huge Sovereign Wealth Fund which, although withdrawing investment from firms causing severe environmental damage, does not categorize climate change as ‘severe environmental damage’. The main reason is a basis of overlapping consensus, which also hinders argumentation for this practice.Overlapping consensus is part of the broader theory “Justice as Fairness” as conceived by John Rawls. The consensus is with regard to having a socially just system. The word ‘overlapping’ refers to people having different reasons for supporting the system. However using overlapping consensus for investment-strategies represents an extension beyond its original intention, and moreover, removes mitigating climate change from the agenda. Removing the basis of overlapping consensus opens up scope for value-based discourse conceived by Habermas’ communicative action and discourse ethics. The immense severity of climate change demands value-based and substantial arguments from powerful sovereign wealth funds, to consider the acceptability of their practice.     

The hypoxia avoidance behaviour of juvenile Atlantic cod (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gadus morhua</Emphasis> L.) depends on the provision and pressure level of an O<Subscript>2</Subscript> refuge

The frequency of low O₂ (hypoxia) has increased in coastal marine areas but how fish avoid deleterious water masses is not yet clear. To assess whether the presence and oxygen pressure (PO₂) level of an O₂ refuge affects the hypoxia avoidance behaviour of fish, individual Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) were exposed to a range of O₂ choices in a 2-way choice chamber at 11.4°C over two different experiments. Cod in the first experiment were allowed access to a fixed O₂ refuge (fully air-saturated seawater) whilst oxygen pressure (PO₂) on the other side was reduced in steps to a critically low level, i.e. 4.3 kPa—a point where cod can no longer regulate O₂ consumption. Under these conditions, cod did not avoid any level of hypoxia and fish swimming speed also remained unchanged. In contrast, strong avoidance reactions were exhibited in a second experiment when fish were again exposed to 4.3 kPa but the safety, i.e. PO₂, of the refuge was reduced. Fish not only spent less time at 4.3 kPa as a result of fewer sampling visits but they also swam at considerably slower speeds. The presence of an avoidance response was thus strongly related to refuge PO₂ and it is unlikely that cod, and possibly other fish species, would enter low O₂ to feed in the wild if a sufficiently safe O₂ refuge was not available. It is therefore hypothesized that the feeding range of fish may be heavily compressed if hypoxia expands and intensifies in future years.     

Effect of ozone on net photosynthesis in oat (Avena sativa) and duckweed (Lemna gibba)

Short exposure to ozone depressed photosynthesis in both oat and duckweed at concentrations above 140 microg m(-3) and 300 microg m(-3), respectively. The effect on exposed oat flag leaves was age-dependent, with maximum susceptibility to ozone 10-20 days after emergence of the panicle. In duckweed, photosynthesis was more sensitive to differences in ozone concentration than to differences in duration of exposure.     

In the mixed world of predictive biology—Contradiction or support

Statistical prediction is a tool and aim in ecology and wildlife management and conservation. A prediction may either be supported by or contradicted by observations of an unknown set of observations. A contradiction occurs if the prediction is not included within the range of the unknown observations, i.e. the prediction misses the cloud of observations completely. Mixed-effects models, frequently used for statistical assessment of clustered data, carry information needed for calculating the probability of such contradictions. Here we present a new versatile statistic, the probability of contradiction (P (Contra)), that describes how often we would anticipate a new cluster of observations contradicting our predictions. Some benefits of P (Contra) are: (1) easy to calculate and intuitive interpretation, (2) comparability between datasets, (3) inclusion of residual correlation, (4) summary of the multitude of information from mixed models into one statistics, and (5) applicable to local mixed-effect models.     

A new method for spatially moving correlation analysis in geomedicine

A method of correlation analysis within a spatially moving window was applied to two sets of epidemiological/geochemical data in Norway, (1) mortality/disability rates of multiple sclerosis (MS) versus atmospheric fallout of Mg and concentrations of Se in overbank sediment, and (2) incidence rates of malignant melanoma of the skin (MM) versus concentrations of Ca and K in overbank sediment. It appears that n = 17 observation sites within the moving window is a practical compromise between noise in the data at small values of n and a spatial resolution good enough to detect trends in the distribution patterns of the correlation coefficient. For MS versus Mg, MS versus Se and MM versus Ca the correlation coefficients are generally negative and depict systematic distribution patterns with anomalous clusters of sites with good correlation. For MS versus Se the correlation coefficients also form an additional cluster of positive coefficients. Tests with permutated data show that more than 70% of the negative correlation coefficients for MS versus Mg and for MM versus Ca are both significantly different from zero at p<0.05, while less than 15% of those for MS versus Se are significant at the same level. For MM versus K the correlation coefficients are randomly distributed and not significantly different from zero. The described correlations may be effects of confounders and do not per se indicate any causal relationships. However, further research based on these results may well lead to the identification of possible aetiological factors.     

Sustainably Harvesting a Large Carnivore? Development of Eurasian Lynx Populations in Norway During 160 Years of Shifting Policy

The management of large carnivores in multiuse landscapes is always controversial, and managers need to balance a wide range of competing interests. Hunter harvest is often used to limit population size and distribution but is proving to be both controversialand technically challenging. Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) are currently managed as a game species in Norway. We describe an adaptive management approach where quota setting is based on an annual census and chart the population development through the period 1996–2008, as management has become significantly more sophisticated and better informed by the increased availability of scientific data. During this period the population has been through a period of high quotas and population decline caused by fragmented management authority and overoptimistic estimates of lynx reproduction, followed by a period of recovery due to quota reductions. The modern management regime is placed in the context of shifting policy during the last 160 years, during which management goals have moved from extermination stimulated by bounties, through a short phase of protection, and now to quota-regulated harvest. Much management authority has also been delegated from central to local levels. We conclude that adaptive management has the potential to keep the population within some bounded limits, although there will inevitably be fluctuation.     

Towards improved understanding of injury prevention program sustainability

As policy makers and funders have become more concerned with allocating scarce resources effectively, attention to the sustainability of health intervention programs has increased. However, the empirical knowledge base about factors facilitating or working against sustainability remains at an early stage. The aim of this study was to contribute to improved understanding of the conditions under which community-based injury prevention programs are most likely to attain sustainability. Ten Swedish community-based injury prevention programs were analysed with respect to factors that contribute to or detract from program sustainability. All the programs are integrated within existing municipality structures. Data were collected by means of semi-structured telephone interviews with key informants.The results suggested that different factors are interrelated, with no one factor being either primary or by itself sufficient for program sustainability. Financial, human, and relational resources lay the groundwork for the long-term operation of a program. The “integrated” program model appears to facilitate sustainability, but program intensity is vulnerable to changes in the financial status of the municipality and the priority-setting by municipality political decision makers. Sustainability may be compromised if a program becomes too dependent on a few key individuals. In contrast to financial, human, and relational resources, structural resources (e.g., injury surveillance and goals) appeared to have limited influence on sustainability. The programs were sustained with little evidence of effectiveness, resulting in limited feedback about how to improve a program in order to achieve and maintain long-term effectiveness.     

Intraguild predatory interactions between the jellyfish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyanea capillata</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aurelia aurita</Emphasis>

While qualitative observations of jellyfish intraguild predation abound in the literature, there are only few rate measurements of these interactions. We quantified predation rates among two common jellyfish in northern boreal waters, Cyanea capillata and its prey Aurelia aurita, both of which also feed on crustacean zooplankton and fish larvae. A series of incubation experiments using a wide range of prey concentrations (0.38–3.8 m⁻³) in large containers (2.6 m³) was carried out. By replenishing the prey continuously as they were captured we maintained a nearly constant prey concentrations. Ingestion rates increased linearly up to prey concentrations of 1.92 m⁻³, yielding maximum clearance rates of ∼2.37 ± 0.39 m³ predator⁻¹ h⁻¹ for C. capillata predators 16 ± 2.3 cm in diameter. Mean ingestion rate at saturated prey concentrations (1.92–3.85 m⁻³) was 4.01 ± 0.78 prey predator⁻¹ h⁻¹. Behavioral observations suggested that predators did not alter their swimming behavior during meals, and thus that feeding rates were generally handling limited rather than encounter limited. Predators captured more prey than needed, and semi-digested prey was often discarded when fresh prey was encountered.