Declining coastal piscivore populations in the Baltic Sea: Where and when do sticklebacks matter?

Intraguild predation interactions make fish communities prone to exhibit alternative stable states with either piscivore or prey fish dominance. In the Baltic Sea, local declines of coastal piscivores like perch (Perca fluviatilis) have been observed to coincide with high densities of sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Mechanisms behind this shift between piscivore and stickleback dominance were studied both experimentally and in field. Results showed that predation by sticklebacks has a strong negative effect on perch larvae survival, but this effect rapidly decreases with increasing perch size, likely due to gape limitations and digestion constraints in sticklebacks. Large spatial and temporal variations in patterns of stickleback migration into perch spawning sites were observed. Whether or not high density of sticklebacks will cause declines in coastal piscivore populations is suggested to depend on the availability of spawning sites in which sticklebacks do not migrate into or arrive late in the reproduction season of coastal piscivores.     

Boating and navigation activities influence the recruitment of fish in a Baltic Sea archipelago area

We studied the effects of boating and navigation activities on the recruitment of coastal fish in the Stockholm archipelago in the NW Baltic proper. The impacts were quantified by sampling metamorphosed young-of-the-year (Y-O-Y) fish in inlets adjacent to i) routes for medium-sized passenger ferries; ii) berths (small marinas) with small boats; and iii) references. Species with high preference for vegetation were negatively influenced by boating and navigation activities and species with low preference positively influenced. Pike (Esox lucius) Y-O-Y were significantly more abundant in reference areas, while bleak (Alburnus alburnus) were more abundant in dredged marinas. No statistically significant patterns were identified for perch (Perca fluviatilis) although there was a trend of low abundance along ferry routes. Many species of nearshore fishes are dependent on submerged vegetation as spawning and larval substrate, structural refuge and feeding habitat. Our results suggest that the negative effects from boating and navigation activities on the coverage and height of vegetation, especially on species of Chara and Potamogeton spp., may contribute to changes in the Y-O-Y fish community.     

Genetic population structure of fishes: implications for coastal zone management

The pattern for distribution of genetic variation within and between populations is referred to as the genetic population structure of the species. To avoid depletion of genetic resources sustainable management should be based on knowledge of this structure. We discuss key aspects of genetic population structure in the context of identifying biological units for fisheries management, suggesting three basic types of structuring: distinct populations; continuous change; and no differentiation. The type of structure determines how units for genetically sustainable management are to be identified. We also review what is currently known regarding the genetic population structure of fishes exploited in the Swedish part of the Baltic Sea, and conclude that sufficient genetic information is lacking for most of the species. This is a serious problem, particularly considering that populations of several commercially exploited fishes are declining and some exhibit recruitment problems. For six species, Atlantic herring, Atlantic salmon, brown trout, European eel, turbot, and pike, sufficient genetic data are available to provide at least basic information on genetic structure and genetic units for biologically sustainable use. Current management practices do not sufficiently consider these data.     

Shoreline development and degradation of coastal fish reproduction habitats

Coastal development has severely affected habitats and biodiversity during the last century, but quantitative estimates of the impacts are usually lacking. We utilize predictive habitat modeling and mapping of human pressures to estimate the cumulative long-term effects of coastal development in relation to fish habitats. Based on aerial photographs since the 1960s, shoreline development rates were estimated in the Stockholm archipelago in the Baltic Sea. By combining shoreline development rates with spatial predictions of fish reproduction habitats, we estimated annual habitat degradation rates for three of the most common coastal fish species, northern pike (Esox lucius), Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus). The results showed that shoreline constructions were concentrated to the reproduction habitats of these species. The estimated degradation rates, where a degraded habitat was defined as having ≥3 constructions per 100 m shoreline, were on average 0.5 % of available habitats per year and about 1 % in areas close to larger population centers. Approximately 40 % of available habitats were already degraded in 2005. These results provide an example of how many small construction projects over time may have a vast impact on coastal fish populations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0522-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Temporal and spatial trends of PCBs,DDTs, HCHs,and HCB in Swedish marine biota 1969–2012

In the 1960s, the Baltic Sea was severely polluted by organic contaminants such as PCBs, HCHs, HCB, and DDTs. Elevated concentrations caused severe adverse effects in Baltic biota. Since then, these substances have been monitored temporally and spatially in Baltic biota, primarily in herring (Clupea harengus) and in guillemot (Uria aalge) egg, but also in cod (Gadus morhua), perch (Perca fluviatilis), eelpout (Zoarces viviparous), and blue mussel (Mytilus edulis). These chemicals were banned in Sweden in the late 1970s/early 1980s. Since the start of monitoring, overall significant decreases of about 70–90 % have been observed. However, concentrations are still higher in the Baltic Sea than in, for example, the North Sea. CB-118 and DDE exceed the suggested target concentrations (24 µg kg^?1 lipid weight and 5 µg kg^?1 wet weight, respectively) at certain sites in some of the monitored species, showing that concentrations may still be too high to protect the most sensitive organisms.     

Concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans in fish downstream from a Ky-5 manufacturing

Concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) were studied in seven fish species, burbot (Lota lota), pike (Esox lucius), perch (Perca fluviatilis), pikeperch (Stizopedion lucioperca), bream (Abramis brama), salmon (Salmo salar) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras) in River Kymijoki and its estuary polluted by Ky-5 manufacturing. The fish were caught at 14 localities along the river and its estuary. The selected species represent different trophic levels and/or inhabit different environments. The concentrations of PCDD/Fs were low, in most samples below 1 pg g(-1) ITEQ (NATO/CCMS 1988) fresh weight (fw) in muscle, except salmon and Baltic herring. These two species graze at the open sea and consequently accumulate contaminants at a large area in the Baltic Sea. The lipid content in salmon and Baltic herring was an order of magnitude higher than in other species. PCDD/Fs in fish muscle showed only slightly elevated levels in the Kymijoki area and its estuary as compared to the levels in the same species in Finnish freshwaters and sea areas. The concentration of the main impurities of the fungicide Ky-5 was higher in the Kymijoki River downstream the Ky-5 manufacturing place compared to the up-stream locations. The PCDD/F concentrations in fish liver and spawn were 10-100 times higher than the concentration in muscle, because of the much higher lipid concentrations of these organes. Consequently, the tolerable daily intake values could be as much as 100 times smaller (M. Korhonen, M. Verta, T. Vartiainen, Organohalog. Comp. 32 (1997) 305-310; P. Mikkelson, J. Paasivirta, H. Kiviranta, Organohalog. Comp. 39 (1998) 59-62).     

Biomagnification of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) studied in pike (Esox lucius), perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus) from the Baltic Sea

Pike, perch and roach from rural waters of the Baltic Sea were investigated for possible biomagnification of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). For this we used data on delta15N, weight and sex of the fish. We were able to separate body size effects from trophic position effects on biomagnification. Both these parameters lead to biomagnification of PCBs and PBDEs. All investigated PCBs (tri- to deca-CBs) biomagnify and the biomagnification potential is positively correlated with hydrophobicity up to log Kow 8.18. Tri- to hepta-BDEs also biomagnify but showed a maximum biomagnification for the penta-BDEs (log Kow 6.46-6.97). The biomagnification of hexa- to hepta-PBDEs was negatively correlated with degree of bromination, likely due to large molecular size or high molecular weight (644-959 Da). Octa-, nona- and deca-BDEs did not biomagnify but were found in two (octa-BDE) and three (nona- and deca-BDEs) of the species, respectively. Increased size of pike is correlated with increased lipid weight based PCB and PBDE concentrations in males but not in females and mean PCB and PBDE concentrations in males are generally higher than in females. For the least hydrophobic PCBs, no sex difference is observed, probably as a consequence of faster clearance of these substances over the gills, making the spawning clearance of PCBs and PBDEs of lesser relative importance.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Searching efficient protection strategies for the eutrophied Gulf of Finland: the combined use of 1D and 3D modeling in assessing long-term state scenarios with high spatial resolution

An experiment combining the use of two ecosystem models was conducted to search for effective protection strategies for the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea). Reference and scenario simulations were first run with a one-dimensional (1D) model for seven main basins of the entire Baltic Sea until steady state was achieved. The obtained basinwise distributions of inorganic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), as well as sediment labile P, were then used to initiate 5-y simulations with a three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem model. The results suggest that relatively small local load reductions (the "Finland" scenario) would improve only the state of adjacent coastal waters significantly. This would be the case, even for runs covering several decades, which clearly exceed the residence times of nutrients in the Gulf of Finland. A significant decrease from a substantial loading source to the Gulf (the "St. Petersburg" scenario) would decrease cyanobacterial biomasses in the entire Gulf of Finland and also immediately outside it. A reduction in the current Polish nutrient loads would improve the situation in the whole Baltic Proper and cause an extensive decline in cyanobacterial biomasses in the Gulf of Finland, as well. However, it would take several decades until the improvement caused by reducing loads in the "Poland" scenario is seen, while in the "St. Petersburg" scenario the corresponding time lag would only be a few years. Our results suggest that the common water protection policy in the Baltic Sea region should have the largest nutrient sources as its primary target, regardless of their location and country.     

Current levels of DDT,PCB and trace elements in the Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida baltica) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus)

Residue levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis[p-chlorophenyl]ethane (DDT) were determined from liver samples of ringed seals (Phoca lispida) from the Baltic Sea and Svalbard, and of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) from the Baltic Sea and Sable Island in Canada. Both Baltic seal populations showed clearly higher average sum PCB (SPCB) and sum DDT (SDDT) levels than the reference seal populations. Among the Baltic seals, SPCB levels were twice as high as SDDT levels, and both contaminants were higher in ringed seals than in grey seals. A difference in gender was observed only in the Sable Island grey seal population, in which males showed a higher level of contamination than females. A reduction of the SDDT levels, and to a lower extent of the SPCB levels can be observed in the Baltic seals since the peak contaminant levels during the 1970s. The decrease has been more rapid in the grey seals than in the ringed seals. The SPCB levels in the Baltic ringed seals are still high enough to cause a threat to their well being. Residue levels of the trace elements mercury, cadmium, lead and selenium were determined from liver, kidney and muscle samples of grey seals from the Baltic Sea and Sable Island. Only cadmium showed a geographic difference being higher in the seals from Sable Island than from the Baltic Sea. No clear reduction of the metal burden can be observed in the Baltic grey seal population since the 1970s.     

Saving the Baltic Sea,the Inland Waters of Its Drainage Basin,or Both? Spatial Perspectives on Reducing P-Loads in Eastern Sweden

Nutrient loads from inland sources to the Baltic Sea and adjacent inland waters need to be reduced in order to prevent eutrophication and meet requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). We here investigate the spatial implications of using different possible criteria for reducing water-borne phosphorous (P) loads in the Northern Baltic Sea River Basin District (NBS-RBD) in Sweden. Results show that most catchments that have a high degree of internal eutrophication do not express high export of P from their outlets. Furthermore, due to lake retention, lake catchments with high P-loads per agricultural area (which is potentially of concern for the WFD) did not considerably contribute to the P-loading of the Baltic Sea. Spatially uniform water quality goals may, therefore, not be effective in NBS-RBD, emphasizing more generally the need for regional adaptation of WFD and BSAP-related goals.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0523-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Climate change effects on the Baltic Sea borderland between land and sea

Coastal habitats are situated on the border between land and sea, and ecosystem structure and functioning is influenced by both marine and terrestrial processes. Despite this, most scientific studies and monitoring are conducted either with a terrestrial or an aquatic focus. To address issues concerning climate change impacts in coastal areas, a cross-ecosystem approach is necessary. Since habitats along the Baltic coastlines vary in hydrology, natural geography, and ecology, climate change projections for Baltic shore ecosystems are bound to be highly speculative. Societal responses to climate change in the Baltic coastal ecosystems should have an ecosystem approach and match the biophysical realities of the Baltic Sea area. Knowledge about ecosystem processes and their responses to a changing climate should be integrated within the decision process, both locally and nationally, in order to increase the awareness of, and to prepare for climate change impacts in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea.     

Wetlands as principal zones of methylmercury production in southern Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico region

It is widely recognized that wetlands, especially those rich in organic matter and receiving appreciable atmospheric mercury (Hg) inputs, are important sites of methylmercury (MeHg) production. Extensive wetlands in the southeastern United States have many ecosystem attributes ideal for promoting high MeHg production rates; however, relatively few mercury cycling studies have been conducted in these environments. We conducted a landscape scale study examining Hg cycling in coastal Louisiana (USA) including four field trips conducted between August 2003 and May 2005. Sites were chosen to represent different ecosystem types, including: a large shallow eutrophic estuarine lake (Lake Pontchartrain), three rivers draining into the lake, a cypress-tupelo dominated freshwater swamp, and six emergent marshes ranging from a freshwater marsh dominated by Panicum hemitomon to a Spartina alterniflora dominated salt marsh close to the Gulf of Mexico. We measured MeHg and total Hg (THg) concentrations, and ancillary chemical characteristics, in whole and filtered surface water, and filtered porewater. Overall, MeHg concentrations were greatest in surface water of freshwater wetlands and lowest in the profundal (non-vegetated) regions of the lake and river mainstems. Concentrations of THg and MeHg in filtered surface water were positively correlated with the highly reactive, aromatic (hydrophobic organic acid) fraction of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). These results suggest that DOC plays an important role in promoting the mobility, transport and bioavailability of inorganic Hg in these environments. Further, elevated porewater concentrations in marine and brackish wetlands suggest coastal wetlands along the Gulf Coast are key sites for MeHg production and may be a principal source of MeHg to foodwebs in the Gulf of Mexico. Examining the relationships among MeHg, THg, and DOC across these multiple landscape types is a first step in evaluating possible links between key zones for Hg(II)-methylation and the bioaccumulation of mercury in the biota inhabiting the Gulf of Mexico region.     

Effects of an invasive polychaete on benthic phosphorus cycling at sea basin scale: An ecosystem disservice

Macrofaunal activities in sediments modify nutrient fluxes in different ways including the expression of species-specific functional traits and density-dependent population processes. The invasive polychaete genus Marenzelleria was first observed in the Baltic Sea in the 1980s. It has caused changes in benthic processes and affected the functioning of ecosystem services such as nutrient regulation. The large-scale effects of these changes are not known. We estimated the current Marenzelleria spp. wet weight biomass in the Baltic Sea to be 60–87 kton (95% confidence interval). We assessed the potential impact of Marenzelleria spp. on phosphorus cycling using a spatially explicit model, comparing estimates of expected sediment to water phosphorus fluxes from a biophysical model to ecologically relevant experimental measurements of benthic phosphorus flux. The estimated yearly net increases (95% CI) in phosphorous flux due to Marenzelleria spp. were 4.2–6.1 kton based on the biophysical model and 6.3–9.1 kton based on experimental data. The current biomass densities of Marenzelleria spp. in the Baltic Sea enhance the phosphorus fluxes from sediment to water on a sea basin scale. Although high densities of Marenzelleria spp. can increase phosphorus retention locally, such biomass densities are uncommon. Thus, the major effect of Marenzelleria seems to be a large-scale net decrease in the self-cleaning capacity of the Baltic Sea that counteracts human efforts to mitigate eutrophication in the region.     

Climate Warming and Pikeperch Year-Class Catches in the Baltic Sea

Climate change scenarios concerning the Baltic Sea predict increase in surface water temperatures. Pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) inhabits the coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea and is an important fish species for the Finnish fisheries. The year-class strength of pikeperch varies strongly between years and significantly depends on water temperature. We aimed to study the effects of changing temperature conditions on pikeperch fisheries and distribution based on commercial catch data from the period 1980–2008 in the Finnish coastal areas of the Baltic Sea. The results indicated that warmer summers will produce stronger pikeperch year-classes that consequently contribute significantly to the future catches. The average temperature in June–July explained 40% of the variation in the year-class catches in the Gulf of Finland and 73% in July–August in the Archipelago Sea. During the study period, the distribution of pikeperch catches expanded toward north along the coasts of the Bothnian Sea.     

Scientists’ warning to humanity on the freshwater biodiversity crisis

Freshwater ecosystems provide irreplaceable services for both nature and society. The quality and quantity of freshwater affect biogeochemical processes and ecological dynamics that determine biodiversity, ecosystem productivity, and human health and welfare at local, regional and global scales. Freshwater ecosystems and their associated riparian habitats are amongst the most biologically diverse on Earth, and have inestimable economic, health, cultural, scientific and educational values. Yet human impacts to lakes, rivers, streams, wetlands and groundwater are dramatically reducing biodiversity and robbing critical natural resources and services from current and future generations. Freshwater biodiversity is declining rapidly on every continent and in every major river basin on Earth, and this degradation is occurring more rapidly than in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, about one third of all global freshwater discharges pass through human agricultural, industrial or urban infrastructure. About one fifth of the Earth’s arable land is now already equipped for irrigation, including all the most productive lands, and this proportion is projected to surpass one third by midcentury to feed the rapidly expanding populations of humans and commensal species, especially poultry and ruminant livestock. Less than one fifth of the world’s preindustrial freshwater wetlands remain, and this proportion is projected to decline to under one tenth by midcentury, with imminent threats from water transfer megaprojects in Brazil and India, and coastal wetland drainage megaprojects in China. The Living Planet Index for freshwater vertebrate populations has declined to just one third that of 1970, and is projected to sink below one fifth by midcentury. A linear model of global economic expansion yields the chilling prediction that human utilization of critical freshwater resources will approach one half of the Earth’s total capacity by midcentury. Although the magnitude and growth of the human freshwater footprint are greater than is generally understood by policy makers, the news media, or the general public, slowing and reversing dramatic losses of freshwater species and ecosystems is still possible. We recommend a set of urgent policy actions that promote clean water, conserve watershed services, and restore freshwater ecosystems and their vital services. Effective management of freshwater resources and ecosystems must be ranked amongst humanity’s highest priorities.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01318-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Consequences of increased terrestrial dissolved organic matter and temperature on bacterioplankton community composition during a Baltic Sea mesocosm experiment

Predicted increases in runoff of terrestrial dissolved organic matter (DOM) and sea surface temperatures implicate substantial changes in energy fluxes of coastal marine ecosystems. Despite marine bacteria being critical drivers of marine carbon cycling, knowledge of compositional responses within bacterioplankton communities to such disturbances is strongly limited. Using 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing, we examined bacterioplankton population dynamics in Baltic Sea mesocosms with treatments combining terrestrial DOM enrichment and increased temperature. Among the 200 most abundant taxa, 62 % either increased or decreased in relative abundance under changed environmental conditions. For example, SAR11 and SAR86 populations proliferated in combined increased terrestrial DOM/temperature mesocosms, while the hgcI and CL500-29 clades (Actinobacteria) decreased in the same mesocosms. Bacteroidetes increased in both control mesocosms and in the combined increased terrestrial DOM/temperature mesocosms. These results indicate considerable and differential responses among distinct bacterial populations to combined climate change effects, emphasizing the potential of such effects to induce shifts in ecosystem function and carbon cycling in the future Baltic Sea.     

Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate

For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.     

How effective are River Basin Management Plans in reaching the nutrient load reduction targets?

Riverine nutrient loads are among the major causes of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. This study applied the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three catchments flowing to the Baltic Sea, namely Vantaanjoki (Finland), Fyrisån (Sweden), and Słupia (Poland), to simulate the effectiveness of nutrient control measures included in the EU’s Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs). Moreover, we identified similar, coastal, middle-sized catchments to which conclusions from this study could be applicable. The first modelling scenario based on extrapolation of the existing trends affected the modelled nutrient loads by less than 5%. In the second scenario, measures included in RBMPs showed variable effectiveness, ranging from negligible for Słupia to 28% total P load reduction in Vantaanjoki. Adding spatially targeted measures to RBMPs (third scenario) would considerably improve their effectiveness in all three catchments for both total N and P, suggesting a need to adopt targeting more widely in the Baltic Sea countries.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01393-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Future Distribution of Arctic Char <Emphasis Type="Italic">Salvelinus alpinus</Emphasis> in Sweden under Climate Change: Effects of Temperature,Lake Size and Species Interactions

Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961–1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95 % of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73 % of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.