Hydroclimatology of the Mississippi River Basin

Model estimated monthly water balance (WB) components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff [R]) for 848 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the MRB WB for water years 1901 through 2014. Results indicate the MRB can be divided into nine subregions with similar temporal variability in R. The WB analyses indicated ~79% of total water‐year MRB runoff is generated by four of the nine subregions and most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus (S) water during the months of December through May. Furthermore, the analyses showed temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the western U.S. and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the eastern U.S. coast. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the MRB. In the context of paleo‐climate reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, since about 1900 the MRB has experienced wetter conditions than were experienced during the previous 500 years.     

ESTIMATES OF RUNOFF USING WATER-BALANCE AND ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS1

ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.     

CONTINENTAL SCALE SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGIC BALANCE1

This paper describes the application of a continuous daily water balance model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for the conterminous U.S. The local water balance is represented by four control volumes; (1) snow, (2) soil profile, (3) shallow aquifer, and (4) deep aquifer. The components of the water balance are simulated using “storage” models and readily available input parameters. All the required databases (soils, landuse, and topography) were assembled for the conterminous U.S. at 1:250,000 scale. A GIS interface was utilized to automate the assembly of the model input files from map layers and relational databases. The hydrologic balance for each soil association polygon (78,863 nationwide) was simulated without calibration for 20 years using dominant soil and land use properties. The model was validated by comparing simulated average annual runoff with long term average annual runoff from USGS stream gage records. Results indicate over 45 percent of the modeled U.S. are within 50 mm of measured, and 18 percent are within 10 mm without calibration. The model tended to under predict runoff in mountain areas due to lack of climate stations at high elevations. Given the limitations of the study, (i.e., spatial resolution of the data bases and model simplicity), the results show that the large scale hydrologic balance can be realistically simulated using a continuous water balance model.     

The Water‐Year Water Balance of the Colorado River Basin

Model‐estimated monthly water balance components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff (R)) for 146 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the CRB water balance for water years 1901 through 2014 (a water year is the period from October 1 of one year through September 30 of the following year). Results indicate that the CRB can be divided into six subregions with similar temporal variability in monthly R. The water balance analyses indicated that approximately 75% of total water‐year R is generated by just one CRB subregion and that most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus (S) water generated during the months of October through April. Furthermore, the analyses show that temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the northwestern conterminous U.S. (CONUS) and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the southeastern CONUS. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the North Pacific Ocean into the CRB, particularly the Upper CRB. Additionally, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet periods in the CRB appears to be related to variability of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.     

Modeling Discharge Rates Using a Coupled Modeled Approach for the Merced River in Yosemite National Park

This study describes the application of the NASA version of the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model coupled with a surface hydrologic routing scheme previously called the Hydrological Routing Algorithm (HYDRA) to model monthly discharge rates from 2000 to 2007 on the Merced River drainage in Yosemite National Park, California. To assess CASA‐HYDRA's capability to estimate actual water flows in extreme precipitation years, the focus of this study is the 2007 water year, which was very dry, and the 2005 water year, which was a moderately wet year in the historical record. Prior to comparisons to gauge records, CASA‐HYDRA snowmelt algorithms were modified with equations from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Snowmelt‐Runoff Model (SRM), which has been designed to predict daily streamflow in mountain basins where snowmelt is a major runoff factor. Results show that model predictions closely matched monthly flow rates at the Pohono Bridge gauge station (USGS#11266500), with R² = 0.67 and Nash‐Sutcliffe (E) = 0.65. By subdividing the upper Merced River basin into subbasins with high spatial resolution in the gridded modeling approach, we were able to determine which biophysical characteristics in the Sierra differed to the largest degree in extreme low‐flow and high‐flow years. Average elevation and snowpack accumulation were found to be the most important explanatory variables to understand subbasin contributions to monthly discharge rates.     

MONTHLY RUNOFF DISTRIBUTION RELATED TO BASIN GEOGRAPHY1

ABSTRACT: Mean monthly runoff from ungaged drainage basins that have significant snowpacks each year can be estimated quite well by assuming that the time duration between snowfall and snowmelt is the predominant factor in temporal runoff distribution. That time span is related to basin temperatures which are, in turn, functions of basin elevation and latitude. Regional hydrologic analyses of gaged basin data create regression equations for estimating runoff distribution by month. These equations then can be applied to ungaged basins. Basin latitude and mean elevation are two independent variables that can be used in estimating monthly runoff distributions.     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL WATER REQUIREMENTS IN THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Competition for water resources is becoming an increasingly important issue in the southeastern U.S. The potential impacts of future precipitation and runoff estimated by a transient global climate model (HADCM2) on competing water resources in the Southeast has been conducted. Issues of agricultural management, irrigation water withdrawals, and water quality were studied over three time periods: 1974–1993, 2020–2039, and 2080–2099 in five water basins identified previously as exhibiting water-related problems. These basins, which encompass the boundary between Alabama and Mississippi, cover four important agricultural counties in Mississippi. Irrigation water requirements generated by crop growth models for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat were coupled with monthly runoff for the impacted basins estimated by the SWAT water balance model. The results of the study reveal that in the next 20–40 years water availability in the southern portions of the study area will decline as much as 10 percent during times when water requirements for agricultural production are crucial. Maintaining or expanding existing crop yields under future climate regimes may require additional irrigation water and increase competition among other uses such as domestic, industrial, recreational, and ecosystem quality.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

STEP WISE,MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE CALIBRATION OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR A SNOWMELT DOMINATED BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The ability to apply a hydrologic model to large numbers of basins for forecasting purposes requires a quick and effective calibration strategy. This paper presents a step wise, multiple objective, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration. This procedure includes the sequential calibration of a model's simulation of solar radiation (SR), potential evapotranspiration (PET), water balance, and daily runoff. The procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Yampa River basin of Colorado. This process assures that intermediate states of the model (SR and PET on a monthly mean basis), as well as the water balance and components of the daily hydrograph are simulated consistently with measured values.     

Runoff Simulation of the Headwaters of the Yellow River Using The SWAT Model With Three Snowmelt Algorithms1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model combined with different snowmelt algorithms was evaluated for runoff simulation of an 114,345 km² mountainous river basin (the headwaters of the Yellow River), where snowmelt is a significant process. The three snowmelt algorithms incorporated into SWAT were as follows: (1) the temperature‐index, (2) the temperature‐index plus elevation band, and (3) the energy budget based SNOW17. The SNOW17 is more complex than the temperature‐based snowmelt algorithms, and requires more detailed meteorological and topographical inputs. In order to apply the SNOW17 in the SWAT framework, SWAT was modified to operate at the pixel scale rather than the normal Hydrologic Response Unit scale. The three snowmelt algorithms were evaluated under two parameter scenarios, the default and the calibrated parameters scenarios. Under the default parameters scenario, the parameter values were determined based on a review of the current literature. The purpose of this type of evaluation was to assess the applicability of SWAT in ungauged basins, where there is little observed data available for calibration. Under the calibrated parameters scenario, the parameters were calibrated using an automatic calibration program, the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE‐UA). The purpose of this type of evaluation was to assess the applicability of SWAT in gauged basins. Two time periods (1975‐1985 and 1986‐1990) of monthly runoff data were used in this study to evaluate the performance of SWAT with different snowmelt algorithms. Under the default parameters scenario, the SWAT model with complex energy budget based SNOW17 performed the best for both time periods. Under the calibrated parameters scenario, the parameters were calibrated using monthly runoff from 1975‐1985 and validated using monthly runoff from 1986‐1990. After parameter calibration, the performance of SWAT with the three snowmelt algorithms was improved from the default parameters scenario. Further, the SWAT model with temperature‐index plus elevation band performed as well as the SWAT model with SNOW17. The SWAT model with temperature‐index algorithm performed the poorest for both time periods under both scenarios. Therefore, it is suggested that the SNOW17 model be used for modeling ungauged basins; however, for gauged basins, the SNOW17 and simple temperature‐index plus elevation band models could provide almost equally good runoff simulation results.     

Effects of Land‐Use and Land‐Cover Change on Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in China During 1900‐20001

Abstract: China has experienced a rapid land‐use/cover change (LUCC) during the 20th Century, and this process is expected to continue in the future. How LUCC has affected water resources across China, however, remains uncertain due to the complexity of LUCC‐water interactions. In this study, we used an integrated Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) in conjunction with spatial data of LUCC to estimate the LUCC effects on the magnitude, spatial and temporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and water yield across China. Through comparisons of DLEM results with other model simulations, field observations, and river discharge data, we found that DLEM model can adequately catch the spatial and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes. Our simulation results demonstrate that LUCC led to substantial changes in ET, runoff, and water yield in most of the China’s river basins during the 20th Century. The temporal and spatial patterns varied significantly across China. The largest change occurred during the second half century when almost all of the river basins had a decreasing trend in ET and an increasing trend in water yield and runoff, in contrast to the inclinations of ET and declinations of water yield in major river basins, such as Pearl river basin, Yangtze river basin, and Yellow river basin during the first half century. The increased water yield and runoff indicated alleviated water deficiency in China in the late 20th Century, but the increased peak flow might make the runoff difficult to be held by reservoirs. The continuously increasing ET and decreasing water yield in Continental river basin, Southwest river basin, and Songhua and Liaohe river basin implied regional water deficiency. Our study in China indicates that deforestation averagely increased ET by 138 mm/year but decreased water yield by the same amount and that reforestation averagely decreased ET by 422 mm/year since most of deforested land was converted to paddy land or irrigated cropland. In China, cropland‐related land transformation is the dominant anthropogenic force affecting water resources during the 20th Century. On national average, cropland expansion was estimated to increase ET by 182 mm/year while cropland abandonment decreased ET by 379 mm/year. Our simulation results indicate that urban sprawl generally decreased ET and increased water yield. Cropland managements (fertilization and irrigation) significantly increased ET by 98 mm/year. To better understand LUCC effects on China’s water resources, it is needed to take into account the interactions of LUCC with other environmental changes such as climate and atmospheric composition.     

USING COMPUTED STREAM FLOW IN WATERSHED ANALYSIS1

Modifications in the computed climatic water budget have made it possible to achieve good agreement between computed and measured stream flow on both a monthly and annual basis in basins without appreciable winter snow cover. Comparisons of computed and measured stream flow in 28 basins on the Delmarva peninsula show that for some basins the agreement is excellent (regression line essentially equals unity), for other basins the regression line has a slope of one but it is displaced above or below the y=x line, while for other basins, the slope of the regression line differs appreciably from unity. Study of the basins where agreement between computed and measured values is only fair to poor reveals that the patterns of disagreement can be used to provide information on the water holding capacity in the root zone of the soil, on the quantity of deep aquifer recharge within the basin, or on the effect of human modifications within the basin. The technique should also reveal the quantity of interbasin transfers or other consumptive uses within the basin. The water budget, thus, becomes a useful tool to study hydrologic characteristics or their changes over time within a basin.     

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELED SURPLUS AND USGS-MEASURED DISCHARGE IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BASIN,LOUISIANA1

ABSTRACT: A one-layer decreasing-availability monthly water balance model is used to estimate monthly surplus that flows into the Lake Pontchartrain Basin from the Amite, Tickfaw, Natalbany, Tangipahoa, and Tchefuncte Rivers for water years 1949 through 1990. The modeled annual surplus for each drainage basin is compared to gauged annual discharge obtained from the United States Geological Survey. This provides an estimate of the differential success of the model over watersheds of various sizes, and also suggests appropriate adjustment factors to be used in future water balance analyses of similar basins in humid subtropical climate regions. Results show that annual surplus values agree well with the USGS values, after an annual adjustment of about 140 mm (11 to 28 percent of the basin surplus) is subtracted from the annual modeled totals to compensate for overestimation by the model. However, inter-annual variability is high in the annual cycles. Winter and spring discharges can also be modeled successfully.     

MONTHLY RUNOFF PREDICTIONS BASED ON RAINFALL FORECASTS IN A SMALL OKLAHOMA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Conditions under which monthly rainfall forecasts translate into monthly runoff predictions that could support water resources planning and management activities were investigated on a small watershed in central Oklahoma. Runoff response to rainfall forecasts was simulated using the hydrologic model SWAT. Eighteen scenarios were examined that represented combinations of wet, average, and dry antecedent rainfall conditions, with wet, normal, and dry forecasted rainfall. Results suggest that for the climatic and physiographic conditions under consideration, rainfall forecasts could offer potential application opportunities in surface water resources but only under certain conditions. Pronounced wet and dry antecedent rainfall conditions were shown to have greater impact on runoff than forecasts, particularly in the first month of a forecast period. Large forecast impacts on runoff occurred under wet antecedent conditions, when the fraction of forecasted rainfall contributing to runoff was greatest. Under dry antecedent conditions, most of the forecasted rainfall was absorbed in the soil profile, with little immediate runoff response. Persistent three‐month forecasts produced stronger impacts on runoff than one‐month forecasts due to cumulative effects in the hydrologic system. Runoff response to antecedent conditions and forecasts suggest a highly asymmetric utility function for rainfall forecasts, with greatest decision‐support potential for persistent wet forecasts under wet antecedent conditions when the forecast signal is least dampened by soil‐storage effects. Under average and dry antecedent conditions, rainfall forecasts showed little potential value for practical applications in surface water resources assessments.     

Lake Water Levels and Associated Hydrologic Characteristics in the Conterminous U.S.

Establishing baseline hydrologic characteristics for lakes in the United States (U.S.) is critical to evaluate changes to lake hydrology. We used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Lakes Assessment 2007 and 2012 surveys to assess hydrologic characteristics of a population of ~45,000 lakes in the conterminous U.S. based on probability samples of ~1,000 lakes/yr distributed across nine ecoregions. Lake hydrologic study variables include water‐level drawdown (i.e., vertical decline and horizontal littoral exposure) and two water stable isotope‐derived parameters: evaporation‐to‐inflow (E:I) and water residence time. We present (1) national and regional distributions of the study variables for both natural and man‐made lakes and (2) differences in these characteristics between 2007 and 2012. In 2007, 59% of the population of U.S. lakes had Greater than normal or Excessive drawdown relative to water levels in ecoregional reference lakes with minimal human disturbances; whereas in 2012, only 20% of lakes were significantly drawn down beyond normal ranges. Water isotope‐derived variables did not differ significantly between survey years in contrast to drawdown. Median E:I was 20% indicating that flow‐through processes dominated lake water regimes. For 75% of U.S. lakes, water residence time was less than one year and was longer in natural vs. man‐made lakes. Our study provides baseline ranges to assess local and regional lake hydrologic status and inform management decisions in changing environmental conditions.     

Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data1

Nishat, Bushra and S.M. Mahbubur Rahman, 2009. Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1313‐1327. Abstract: Large‐scale water resources modeling can provide useful insights on future water availability scenarios for downstream nations in anticipation of proposed upstream water resources projects in large international river basins (IRBs). However, model set up can be challenging due to the large amounts of data requirement on both static states (soils, vegetation, topography, drainage network, etc.) and dynamic variables (rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, etc.) over the basin from multiple nations and data collection agencies. Under such circumstances, satellite remote sensing provides a more pragmatic and convenient alternative because of the vantage of space and easy availability from a single data platform. In this paper, we demonstrate a modeling effort to set up a water resources management model, MIKE BASIN, over the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) river basins. The model is set up with the objective of providing Bangladesh, the lowermost riparian nation in the GBM basins, a framework for assessing proposed water diversion scenarios in the upstream transboundary regions of India and deriving quantitative impacts on water availability. Using an array of satellite remote sensing data on topography, vegetation, and rainfall from the transboundary regions, we demonstrate that it is possible to calibrate MIKE BASIN to a satisfactory level and predict streamflow in the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers at the entry points of Bangladesh at relevant scales of water resources management. Simulated runoff for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers follow the trends in the rated discharge for the calibration period. However, monthly flow volume differs from the actual rated flow by (?) 8% to (+) 20% in the Ganges basin, by (?) 15 to (+) 12% in the Brahmaputra basin, and by (?) 15 to (+) 19% in the Meghna basin. Our large‐scale modeling initiative is generic enough for other downstream nations in IRBs to adopt for their own modeling needs.     

Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Santiam River Basin,Oregon

Future changes in water supply are likely to vary across catchments due to a river basin's sensitivity to climate and land use changes. In the Santiam River Basin (SRB), Oregon, we examined the role elevation, intensity of water demands, and apparent intensity of groundwater interactions, as characteristics that influence sensitivity to climate and land use changes, on the future availability of water resources. In the context of water scarcity, we compared the relative impacts of changes in water supply resulting from climate and land use changes to the impacts of spatially distributed but steady water demand. Results highlight how seasonal runoff responses to climate and land use changes vary across subbasins with differences in hydrogeology, land use, and elevation. Across the entire SRB, water demand exerts the strongest influence on basin sensitivity to water scarcity, regardless of hydrogeology, with the highest demand located in the lower reaches dominated by agricultural and urban land uses. Results also indicate that our catchment with mixed rain‐snow hydrology and with mixed surface‐groundwater may be more sensitive to climate and land use changes, relative to the catchment with snowmelt‐dominated runoff and substantial groundwater interactions. Results highlight the importance of evaluating basin sensitivity to change in planning for planning water resources storage and allocation across basins in variable hydrogeologic settings.     

USE OF THE DELPHI METHOD IN RESOLVING COMPLEX WATER RESOURCES ISSUES1

ABSTRACT: The tri‐state river basins, shared by Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, are being modeled by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to help facilitate agreement in an acrimonious water dispute among these different state governments. Modeling of such basin reservoir operations requires parallel understanding of several river system components: hydropower production, flood control, municipal and industrial water use, navigation, and reservoir fisheries requirements. The Delphi method, using repetitive surveying of experts, was applied to determine fisheries' water and lake‐level requirements on 25 reservoirs in these interstate basins. The Delphi technique allowed the needs and requirements of fish populations to be brought into the modeling effort on equal footing with other water supply and demand components. When the subject matter is concisely defined and limited, this technique can rapidly assess expert opinion on any natural resource issue, and even move expert opinion toward greater agreement.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER YIELD IN THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The potential impacts of climate change on water yield are examined in the Upper Wind River Basin. This is a high‐elevation, mountain basin with a snowfall/snowmelt dominated stream‐flow hydrograph. A variety of physiographic conditions are represented in the rangeland, coniferous forests, and high‐elevation alpine regions. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model the baseline input time series data and climate change scenarios. Five hydroclimatic variables (temperature, precipitation, CO₂, radiation, and humidity) are examined using sensitivity tests of individual and coupled variables with a constant change and coupled variables with a monthly change. Results indicate that the most influential variable on annual water yield is precipitation; and, the most influential variable on the timing of streamflow is temperature. Carbon dioxide, radiation, and humidity each noticeably impact water yield, but less significantly. The coupled variable analyses represent a more realistic climate change regime and reflect the combined response of the basin to each variable; for example, increased temperature offsets the effects of increased precipitation and magnifies the effects of decreased precipitation. This paper shows that the hydrologic response to climate change depends largely on the hydroclimatic variables examined and that each variable has a unique effect (e.g., magnitude, timing) on water yield.     

EVALUATION OF INFLOW TO MIRROR LAKE,NEW HAMPSHIRE1

ABSTRACT: Measured stream discharge plus calculated ground water discharge (total measured runoff) were compared with runoff calculated by the unit-runoff method for the two largest watersheds of Mirror Lake for 1981–1983. Runoff calculated by the unit-runoff method, using Hubbard Brook watershed 3 as the index watershed, was greater than the total measured runoff into Mirror Lake during periods of high flow and slightly less than the total measured runoff into Mirror Lake during periods of low flow. Annual calculated unit runoff was 17 to 37 percent greater than total measured runoff. Differences in monthly runoff are far greater, ranging from 0 to greater than 100 percent. For high flows the calculated unit runoff is about 2 times greater than total measured runoff. For low flows the northwest basin of Mirror Lake has the greatest ground water contribution compared to the other two basins. In contrast, Hubbard Brook watershed 3 has the least ground water contribution.