洪水灾害风险评价研究综述

洪水灾害是当今世界最严重的自然灾害之一，带来了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失。洪水灾害风险评价是科学有效地防洪减灾的前提和基础。文章对洪水灾害风险相关概念进行了界定，从气象、水文水力、社会经济、遥感与GIS和土地利用5个方面对洪水灾害风险评价的常用方法进行了评述，并列出了常用的评价因子。最后指出了未来研究的可能发展方向。     

洪水灾害遥感监测研究综述

洪水灾害是最严重的自然灾害之一,洪灾造成的损失十分严重,对其进行科学的监测是防灾减灾的基础。在洪水灾害遥感监测研究进展的介绍基础上,着重对中分辨率、高时相、微波、高精度DEM、多源数据遥感洪水监测原理及方法的研究进展进行比较和总结,分析各种数据特点。在此基础上提出了洪水遥感监测向高分辨率、高时相性方向,遥感影像相互订正和利用3S技术是洪涝灾害动态监测发展的方向,为洪水灾害的快速反应和防洪辅助决策提供依据。     

新疆绿洲的风沙灾害和减灾对策

通过新疆绿洲的沙漠化危害态势、风沙灾害地区及灾情、风沙灾害发展趋势分析探讨，针对风沙灾害的成因提出了减灾对策。     

阿尔泰山湿地生态系统服务功益与可持续利用

阿尔泰山湿地是新疆干旱区最大的山区湿地生态系统之一，在对该湿地进行实地考察、遥感分析、实验室分析的基础上，认为该湿地具有提供水源、调蓄洪水、调节局部气候、维持生物多样性、净化水质、提供体闲旅游、文化科研教育等多种生态系统服务功益。鉴于目前对阿尔泰山湿地生态系统服务功益的片面理解和不合理利用问题，对湿地生态系统服务功益的可持续利用现状进行了分析，提出了湿地生态系统服务功益可持续利用的科学对策。     

水库工程环评中的溃坝风险评价探讨

针对水库工程可能出现的溃坝风险 ,提出了溃坝原因、溃坝洪水分析计算内容和溃坝洪水淹没范围的确定方法。并结合“8·2 7”沟后水库溃坝 ,探讨了溃坝洪水环境影响评价的主要内容。     

水利水电工程建设对荒漠河岸林草的影响分析研究

以新疆喀什噶尔河流域克孜河卡拉贝利水利枢纽工程为例,采用水均衡模型计算方法,从工程建成后区域荒漠河岸林草耗水量变化、荒漠河岸林草区地下水位变化情况、工程建成后洪水过程变化等方面分析工程建设对工程影响区荒漠河岸林草的影响。评价结果显示,工程建成后,与现状相比荒漠河岸林草植被的耗水量有所增加,区域平均地下水埋深仍能维持现状,在河岸林草生长和繁殖的6-9月,区域地下水位较现状略有上升,可满足大部分荒漠河岸林草植被的正常生长需求,水库对5年一遇标准以下洪水不调蓄,不会对荒漠河岸林草的繁衍存活产生明显不利影响。     

从可持续发展的角度进行生态环境建设建议书

2004年6月22日～24日，由新疆生态学会牵头，新疆土壤肥料学会、新疆水利学会、新疆林学会、新疆草原学会及新疆植物学会6个学会在乌鲁木齐市召开了“新疆生态环境保护与建设学术讨论会”，各学会共有50多位专家参会并提交了66篇论文，出版了会议专集《新疆生态环境保护与建设学术讨论会论文集》。会议在回顾新疆生态环境建设成绩和教训的基础上，为使今后新疆生态环境保护和建设工作走上科学的符合生态学规律和可持续发展的道路，特提出如下建议，供政府各级领导部门参考。     

新疆社会经济特征与可持续发展基本因素分析

由于历史、区位等多种因素的影响，使新疆的社会经济发展除了相对滞后之外，还有其显著的自身特征，从研究新疆的可持续发展出发，对新疆社会经济特征进行探讨分析是研究新疆可持续发展的基本内容。从探讨分析中认识新疆可持续发展的基本特征。王新疆社会环境特征与分析由于新疆地理环境的封闭性构成了新疆社会经济活动的分散性，因此，社会经济发展受到自然环境因素的强烈影响和约束。新疆又是一个多民族聚居的区域，民族问题既有历史遗留的因素，又有现实因素，各民族发展的不平衡影响了民族间的交流。严峻的自然环境形成了新疆独特的人文…     

农业气象干旱指标研究综述

干旱作为最严重的气象灾害之一，已经对我国社会经济和人民生活造成严重影响。结合农业干旱和气象干旱基本理论，对农业气象干旱的定义及指标作了较为详细的综述与评价，指出了不同指标的优点和缺点，对今后的研究方向进行了展望，为干旱的监测和评估及农业防灾减灾研究提供了方法和依据。     

浅论新疆煤矿矿井排水的处理问题

就新疆煤矿矿井水的排水问题，水质特征及处理方法展开了分析讨论，介绍了几种较成熟的煤矿矿井水处理方法和工艺技术。     

AN APPLICATION RUNOFF MODEL STRATEGY FOR UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models for predicting watershed surface flow responses are available, most of which are elaborate nonlinear numerical surface and channel flow models linked with infiltration models. Such models may be used to make predictions for ungaged areas, assuming an acceptable fitting of the model to the topography and roughness of the real system. For some application purposes, these models are impractical because of their complexity and expensive computer solutions. A procedure is developed that uses a complex model of an ungaged area to derive a simpler parametric nonlinear system model for repetitious simulation with input sequences. The predicted flow outputs are obtained with the simpler model at significant savings of money and time. The procedures for constructing a complex kinematic model of a 40 acre (161,880 m²) reference watershed and deriving the simpler system model are outlined. The results of predictions from both models are compared with a selected set of measured events, all having essentially the same initial conditions. Peak discharges ranged from 3 to 118 ft³/sec (0.085 to 3.34 m³/sec), which includes the largest event of record. The inherent limitations of lumped systems models are demonstrated, including the bias caused by their inability to model infiltration losses after rainfall ceases. Computer costs and times for the models were compared. The derived simple model has a cost advantage when repeated use of a model is required. Such an applications hydrologic model has an engineering tradeoff of reduced accuracy, and lumping bias, but is more economical for certain design purposes.     

Conversion of temperate forests into heaths: Role of ecosystem disturbance and ericaceous plants

Fire and logging in nutrient-poor temperate forests with certain ericaceous understory plants may convert the forests into heaths. The process of disturbance-induced heath formation is documented by using examples ofCalluna in western Europe,Kalmia in Newfoundland, andGaultheria (salal) in coastal British Columbia. In a cool, temperate climate, rapid vegetative growth ofCalluna, Kalmia, and salal following disturbance results in increasing organic accumulation (paludification), nutrient sequestration, soil acidification, and allelochemicals. These are thought to be the main reasons to conifer regeneration failure in disturbed habitats. If continuation in forest is a land-use objective, then temperate forests with an ericaceous understory should not be logged unless effective silvicultural methods are devised to control the ericaceous plants and restore forest regeneration. Preharvest vegetation control may be considered as an option. Failure to control the understory plants may lead to a long-term vegetation shift, from forest to heathland, particularly in nutrient-poor sites. Successful methods of controllingKalmia andGaultheria, however, have yet to be developed. While theKalmia- andGaultheria- dominated heathlands are undesirable in Canada and the Pacific Northwest, a wide range ofCalluna heathlands of western Europe are being conserved as natural and seminatural vegetation.     

Using Paleo Reconstructions to Improve Streamflow Forecast Lead Time in the Western United States

In water stressed regions, water managers are exploring new horizons that would help in long‐range streamflow forecasts. Oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence streamflow variability. In this study, long‐lead time streamflow forecasts are made using a multiclass kernel‐based data‐driven support vector machine (SVM) model. The extended streamflow records based on tree ring reconstructions were used to provide a longer time series data. Reconstructed data were used from 1658 to 1952 and the instrumental record was used from 1953 to 2007. Reconstructions for oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations included the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. Streamflow forecasts using all four oscillations were made with one‐year to five‐year lead times for 21 gages in the western United States. This is the first study that uses both instrumental and reconstructed data of oscillations in SVM model to improve streamflow forecast lead time. SVM model was able to provide “satisfactory” to “very good” forecasts with one‐ to five‐year lead time for the selected gages. The use of all the oscillation indices helped in achieving better predictability compared to using individual oscillations. The SVM modeling results are better when compared with multiple linear regression model forecasts. The findings are statistical in nature and are expected to be useful for long‐term water resources planning and management.     

Urban ecological systems: scientific foundations and a decade of progress

Urban ecological studies, including focus on cities, suburbs, and exurbs, while having deep roots in the early to mid 20th century, have burgeoned in the last several decades. We use the state factor approach to highlight the role of important aspects of climate, substrate, organisms, relief, and time in differentiating urban from non-urban areas, and for determining heterogeneity within spatially extensive metropolitan areas. In addition to reviewing key findings relevant to each state factor, we note the emergence of tentative "urban syndromes" concerning soils, streams, wildlife and plants, and homogenization of certain ecosystem functions, such as soil organic carbon dynamics. We note the utility of the ecosystem approach, the human ecosystem framework, and watersheds as integrative tools to tie information about multiple state factors together. The organismal component of urban complexes includes the social organization of the human population, and we review key modes by which human populations within urban areas are differentiated, and how such differentiation affects environmentally relevant actions. Emerging syntheses in land change science and ecological urban design are also summarized. The multifaceted frameworks and the growing urban knowledge base do however identify some pressing research needs.     

Neighbourhood characteristics and urban gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area: staffing and voluntarism,food production,infrastructure, and sustainability practices

Urban gardens are important sources of sustenance for communities with limited access to food. Hence, this study focuses on food production in gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area in Northwest Ohio. We administered surveys to 150 garden managers from November 2014 to February 2015 in our attempt to better understand how neighbourhood racial composition and poverty levels are related to staffing and voluntarism, food production and distribution, the development of infrastructure, and the adoption of sustainability practices in urban gardens. The results from 30 gardens are presented in this paper. We used Geographic Information Systems to map the gardens and overlay the map with 2010 census data so that we could conduct demographic analyses of the neighbourhoods in which the gardens were located. Though the gardens were small – two acres or less – up to 46 varieties of food were grown in a single garden. Gardens also operated on small budgets. Food from the gardens was gifted or shared with friends, family, and neighbourhood residents. Gardens in predominantly minority neighbourhoods tended to have fewer institutional partners, less garden infrastructure, and had adopted fewer sustainable practices than gardens in predominantly White neighbourhoods. Nonetheless, residents of predominantly minority and high-poverty neighbourhoods participated in garden activities and influenced garden operations. Volunteering and staffing were racialised and gendered.     

Predicting deer-vehicle collisions in an urban area

Collisions with deer and other large animals are increasing, and the resulting economic costs and risks to public safety have made mitigation measures a priority for both city and wildlife managers. We created landscape models to describe and predict deer-vehicle collision (DVCs) within the City of Edmonton, Alberta. Models based on roadside characteristics revealed that DVCs occurred frequently where roadside vegetation was both denser and more diverse, and that DVCs were more likely to occur when the groomed width of roadside right-of-ways was smaller. No DVCs occurred where the width of the vegetation-free or manicured roadside buffer was greater than 40 m. Landscape-based models showed that DVCs were more likely in more heterogeneous landscapes where road densities were lower and speed limits were higher, and where non-forested vegetation such as farmland was in closer proximity to larger tracts of forest. These models can help wildlife and transportation managers to identify locations of high collision frequency for mitigation. Modifying certain landscape and roadside habitats can be an effective way to reduce deer-vehicle collisions.     

BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS AND BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF ESTUARINE/COASTAL POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: Sustained interest in and concern about the health status of the aquatic environment has resulted in extensive research focused on (1) effects of pollution on survival, growth, and reproduction of resource species at all life stages; (2) diseases of fish and shellfish, as they may be related to pollution and as they may serve as indicators of environmental stress; and (3) contaminant body burdens in fish and shellfish - their effects on the aquatic animals and their potential effects on humans. Effects, lethal and sublethal, of pollutants on life history stages of fish and shellfish have been documented, as have impacts on local stocks in badly degraded habitats, but as yet there has been no adequate quantitative demonstration of effects on entire aquatic species - probably because of the difficulty in sorting out relative effects of the many environmental factors that influence abundance. Sublethal effects, especially those that result in disease, have been examined intensively, and some diseases and disease syndromes have been associated statistically with pollution. Other pollution indicators (biochemical, physiological, genetic, behavioral, and ecological) have also received some attention, as have body burdens of contaminants in aquatic species. Research, especially that conducted during the past decade, has done much to clarify the many pathways and toxic effects of contaminants on aquatic animals, and has also helped to identify mechanisms for survival of fish and shellfish in the presence of environmental changes caused by human activities.     

Biodiversity and biotechnology

The maintenance of biodiversity is urged from many quarters and on grounds ranging from aesthetic considerations to its usefulness, particularly for biotechnology. But regardless of the grounds for preserving biodiversity, writers are generally in agreement that it should be preserved. But, in examining the various references biodiversity, such as species diversity, genetic diversity, and habitat diversity, it is apparent that we cannot aim to preserve biodiversityas such, since there are a number of conflicts in any such undertaking. In preserving one aspect of biodiversity, we damage another aspect. Five arguments which attempt to ground our moral concern for biodiversity are reviewed and critiqued, not only for their consistency but also for their power to move us to action. The final section of the paper shows how conflicts in the values of personal and environmental health can impair ethical action and especially policy formation.An earlier version of this paper was read at the conference on Agriculture, Food, and Human Values: Tradition and Change, Orlando, Florida, October 7–9, 1987.     

Journalists' views of advertiser pressures on agricultural news

All major journalism ethical codes explicitly state that journalists should protect editorial copy from undue influence by outside sources. However, much of the previous research on agricultural information has concentrated on what information various media communicate (gatekeeping studies) or communication's role in increasing innovation adoption (diffusion studies). Few studies have concentrated specifically on organizational and structural constraints that might adversely affect agricultural journalists' ethical standards; those that have, focus largely on farm magazines. A study of newspaper reporters who cover agricultural news found that the most pressing ethical concern is the effect of advertiser (agri-business) pressure on editorial copy, and that their concerns in general parallel those of farm magazine writers and editors. The majority reported being in situations in which they might be exposed to advertiser pressure, including pressures to change or withhold editorial copy. Large minorities suggested that advertising pressures affect the overall environment in which agricultural journalists work, and more than one in ten said they allow advertiser pressures to influence editorial decisions. The newspaper reporters who cover agricultural beats showed slightly more resistance to advertiser pressure than did farm magazine editors in a parallel study.     

Definition Procedures Have Little Effect on Performance of Environmental Classifications of Streams and Rivers

Mapped environmental classifications are defined using various procedures, but there has been little evaluation of the differences in their ability to discriminate variation in independent ecological characteristics. We tested the performance of environmental classifications of the streams and rivers of France that had been defined from the same environmental data using geographic regionalization and numerical classification of individual river valley segments. Test data comprised invertebrate assemblages, water chemistry, and hydrological indexes obtained from sites throughout France. Classification performance was measured by analysis of similarity (ANOSIM). Geometric regions defined by a regular grid and without regard to environmental variables and a posteriori classifications based on clustering the test datasets defined lower and upper bounds of performance for a given number of classes. Differences in classification performances were generally small. The ANOSIM statistics for the a posteriori classifications were around twice that of all environmental classifications, including geometrically defined regions. The hydro-ecoregions performed slightly better for the invertebrate data and the network classification performed slightly better for the chemistry and hydrological data. Our results indicate that environmental classifications that are defined using different procedures can be comparable in terms of their ability to discriminate variation of ecological characteristics and that alleged differences in performance arising from different classification procedures can be small relative to unexplained variation. We conclude that definition procedures might have little effect on the performance of large-scale environmental classifications and decisions over which procedures to use should be based primarily on pragmatic considerations.