基于环境风险后果评价的危险化学品码头选址

在危险化学品码头选址期间开展环境风险后果评价,有助于减轻码头运营期间突发水污染事故对周围环境可能造成的不利影响。通过将环境风险后果具体化为风险受体脆弱性与暴露的乘积,把风险的受体分为人群、经济和生态3大类别,对每一类受体分别选取指标计算脆弱性指数。并以长江南京段沿岸危化品码头的选址为例,在评价区域建立二维水质模型模拟苯胺泄漏后污染物的时空分布,并根据不同的浓度阈值确定每类受体对应的暴露系数,最后给出定量的评价结果为选址提供建议。     

Vulnerability of land systems to fire: Interactions among humans,climate, the atmosphere,and ecosystems

Fires are critical elements in the Earth System, linking climate, humans, and vegetation. With 200–500 Mha burnt annually, fire disturbs a greater area over a wider variety of biomes than any other natural disturbance. Fire ignition, propagation, and impacts depend on the interactions among climate, vegetation structure, and land use on local to regional scales. Therefore, fires and their effects on terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to global change. Fires can cause dramatic changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. They have significant impacts on the atmosphere and biogeochemical cycles. By contributing significantly to greenhouse gas (e.g., with the release of 1.7–4.1 Pg of carbon per year) and aerosol emissions, and modifying surface properties, they affect not only vegetation but also climate. Fires also modify the provision of a variety of ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, soil fertility, grazing value, biodiversity, and tourism, and can hence trigger land use change. Fires must therefore be included in global and regional assessments of vulnerability to global change. Fundamental understanding of vulnerability of land systems to fire is required to advise management and policy. Assessing regional vulnerabilities resulting from biophysical and human consequences of changed fire regimes under global change scenarios requires an integrated approach. Here we present a generic conceptual framework for such integrated, multidisciplinary studies. The framework is structured around three interacting (partially nested) subsystems whose contribute to vulnerability. The first subsystem describes the controls on fire regimes (exposure). A first feedback subsystem links fire regimes to atmospheric and climate dynamics within the Earth System (sensitivity), while the second feedback subsystem links changes in fire regimes to changes in the provision of ecological services and to their consequences for human systems (adaptability). We then briefly illustrate how the framework can be applied to two regional cases with contrasting ecological and human context: boreal forests of northern America and African savannahs.     

Combining hazard,exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management

Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to adapt and respond to floods, which in turn largely depends on their social vulnerability. This study shows how a joint assessment of hazard, exposure and social vulnerability provides valuable information for the evaluation of FRM strategies. The adopted methodology uses data on hazard and exposure combined with a social vulnerability index. The relevance of this state-of-the-art approach taken is exemplified in a case-study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The results show that not only a substantial share of the population can be defined as socially vulnerable, but also that the population is very heterogeneous, which is often ignored in traditional flood risk management studies. It is concluded that FRM measures, such as individual mitigation, evacuation or flood insurance coverage should not be applied homogenously across large areas, but instead should be tailored to local characteristics based on the socioeconomic characteristics of individual households and neighborhoods.     

火灾爆炸危险指数法在油库风险评价中的应用

油库由于储存物料的易燃易爆等特性,一般构成重大危险源,易于发生火灾爆炸事故,采用美国道化学公司的火灾爆炸危险指数法（FEI）,对油库火灾爆炸事故的危险性进行定量分析,计算火灾、爆炸危险指数（F＆EI）,确定油库火灾爆炸事故的影响范围,并针对事故影响范围内的设施制定防范措施,给出安全措施补偿系数,经安全措施补偿后,火灾、爆炸危险指数（F＆EI）减少,事故危险等级降低,事故影响范围缩小,为油库工程的风险管理提供理论依据。     

Igniting change in local government: lessons learned from a bushfire vulnerability assessment

Local governments and communities have a critical role to play in adapting to climate variability and change. Spatial vulnerability assessment is one tool that can facilitate engagement between researchers and local stakeholders through the visualisation of climate vulnerability and the integration of its biophysical and socio-economic determinants. This has been demonstrated through a case study from Sydney, Australia where a bushfire vulnerability assessment was undertaken as the first-step in a project to investigate local government perceptions of climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity. A series of relevant biophysical and socio-economic indicators was identified that represented the region’s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity with respect to bushfires. These indicators were then combined to develop maps of net landscape vulnerability to bushfire. When presented in a workshop setting, vulnerability maps were successful in capturing the attention of stakeholders while simultaneously conveying information regarding the diversity of drivers that can contribute to current and future vulnerability. However, stakeholders were reluctant to embrace representations of vulnerability that differed from their own understanding of hazard, necessitating the demonstration of agreement between the vulnerability assessment and more conventional hazard assessment tools. This validation opened the door for public dissemination of vulnerability maps, the uptake and use of the assessment in local government risk assessment and adaptation planning, and more focused case-studies on barriers to adaptation.     

浅海平台油气火灾事故模拟评估应用

全球海洋油气开发重特大火灾事故频发,油气生产安全面临严峻挑战,以我国浅海某中心平台组为研究对象,对可能发生的三相分离器喷射火火灾、管线交叉处喷射火火灾、生产平台池火火灾以及储罐平台池火火灾,采用FDS软件建立该平台组的火灾动力学模型,对油气泄漏后火灾的发展态势、火场温度、热辐射强度、设备温度以及不同火灾工况的对比分析,研究火灾发生后对人员伤害,以及平台上油气管线、分离器、油气储罐、平台栈桥等重要设备安全性的影响,并提出操作人员和重要设备的安全距离。针对火灾事故风险控制提出建议措施,对海上火灾风险分析未来研究方向进行阐述。     

A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change

Planting urban trees and expanding urban forest canopy cover are often considered key strategies for reducing climate change impacts in urban areas. However, urban trees and forests can also be vulnerable to climate change through shifts in tree habitat suitability, changes in pests and diseases, and changes in extreme weather events. We developed a three-step framework for urban forest vulnerability assessment and adaptation that scales from regional assessment to local on-the-ground action. We piloted this framework in the Chicago region in 10 locations representing an urban-exurban gradient across a range of socioeconomic capacities. The majority of trees across a seven-county region had low to moderate vulnerability, but many of the least vulnerable species were nonnative invasive species. Urban forests in the 10 pilot locations ranged in vulnerability largely due to differences in economic and organizational adaptive capacity. Adaptation actions selected in these locations tended to focus on increased biodiversity and restoration of natural disturbance regimes. However, adaptation actions in more developed sites also included incorporating new species or cultivars. Lessons learned from the pilot area can be used to inform future efforts in other urban areas.     

Forest Fires and Climate Change in the 21ST Century

Fire is the major stand-renewing disturbance in the circumboreal forest. Weather and climate are the most important factors influencing fire activity and these factors are changing due to human-caused climate change. This paper discusses and synthesises the current state of fire and climate change research and the potential direction for future studies on fire and climate change. In the future, under a warmer climate, we expect more severe fire weather, more area burned, more ignitions and a longer fire season. Although there will be large spatial and temporal variation in the fire activity response to climate change. This field of research allows us to better understand the interactions and feedbacks between fire, climate, vegetation and humans and to identify vulnerable regions. Lastly, projections of fire activity for this century can be used to explore options for mitigation and adaptation.     

Development of the Indonesian and Malaysian Fire Danger Rating Systems

Forest and land fires in Southeast Asia have many social, economic, and environmental impacts. Tropical peatland fires affect global carbon dynamics, and haze from peat fires has serious negative impacts on the regional economy and human health. To mitigate these fire-related problems, forest and land management agencies require an early warning system to assist them in implementing fire prevention and management plans before fire problems begin. Fire Danger Rating Systems (FDRS) were developed for Indonesia and Malaysia to provide early warning of the potential for serious fire and haze events. In particular, they identify time periods when fires can readily start and spread to become uncontrolled fires and time periods when smoke from smouldering fires will cause an unacceptably high level of haze. The FDRS were developed by adapting components of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, including the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System, to local vegetation, climate, and fire regime conditions. A smoke potential indicator was developed using the Drought Code (DC) of the FWI System. Historical air quality analysis showed that the occurrence of severe haze events increased substantially when DC was above 400. An ignition potential indicator was developed using the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) of the FWI System. Historical hot spot analysis, grass moisture, and grass ignition studies showed that fire occurrence and the ability for grass fires to start and spread dramatically increased when FFMC > 82. The Initial Spread Index (ISI) of the FWI System was used to develop a difficulty of control indicator for grassland fires, a fuel type that can exhibit high rates of spread and fire intensity. This ISI-based indicator was developed using the grass fuel model of the FBP System, along with a standard grass fuel load and curing level estimated from previous Indonesian studies. Very high fire intensity is expected in grasslands when ISI ≥ 6. To provide early warning, the FDRS identifies classes of increasing fire danger as the FFMC, DC, and ISI approach these key threshold values. The Indonesian FDRS is now operated nationally at the Indonesian Meteorological and Geophysical Agency. The Malaysian Meteorological Service operates the Malaysian FDRS and displays regional outputs for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The FDRS are being used by forestry, agriculture, environment, and fire and rescue agencies to develop and implement fire prevention, detection, and suppression plans.     

基于模糊聚类与神经网络的风蚀危险性评估研究——以内蒙古自治区为例

土地沙化和沙尘暴是中国北方农牧交错带严重的生态环境问题。在地理信息系统的支持下,论文建立风蚀自然因子栅格数据库;选取二连浩特-张家口为典型样带,综合运用模糊聚类技术、 专家知识以及神经网络技术,构建区域风蚀危险度评估模型,分析内蒙古自治区风蚀危险性空间分布格局。结果显示:综合应用模糊聚类以及神经网络技术可以有效地对风蚀危险度进行评价,内蒙古自治区风蚀危险性呈现"西高东低、 中间过渡"的总体趋势,这与该区域的自然、 气候与土地利用背景较吻合,其中,风蚀极险型区域主要分布在阿拉善高原的西北部,面积6.9×10⁴ km²;强险型土壤风蚀地区主要位于阴山山脉周围、 穿越巴丹吉林沙漠、 浑善达克沙地与锡林郭勒盟高原西北部,面积4.3×10⁴ km²;危险型风蚀区域大致位于极险和强险之间,面积是1.5×10⁵ km²;轻险型土壤风蚀区域主要位于内蒙古的中部,面积为7.5×10⁵ km²;风蚀无险型区域主要位于大兴安岭周围,面积1.4×10⁵ km²。     

Post-disaster recovery dilemmas: challenges in balancing short-term and long-term needs for vulnerability reduction

Following disasters, governments often clamor to quickly reduce risk, rebuild communities and restore permanence. The pressure to urgently address complex, difficult decisions can result in reactive policies that may increase long-term vulnerability of affected populations. Sri Lanka in the aftermath of the 26 December 2004 tsunami represents such an example: a hastily designed coastal buffer zone policy has incited massive relocation of affected populations and resulted in social, economic and environmental problems that threaten the well-being of poor coastal communities. We review the impacts of this policy from its inception, days after the tsunami hit the island, until its revision, approximately 10 months following the disaster. We then apply a framework to conceptualize the components of vulnerability within Sri Lanka's coastal, human–environment system and to identify where post-disaster policies should focus to reduce vulnerability of coastal populations more effectively. From this analysis, it is apparent that the buffer zone policy gave disproportionate attention to reducing exposure to future tsunamis and, subsequently, did not address the critical social, economic and institutional factors that influenced sensitivity to the hazard. Post-disaster policies aimed at sustainable re-development should be informed by an analysis of the components of vulnerability that comprise a system and how these can be most effectively influenced during the separate short-term and long-term phases of rebuilding.     

基于灰关联度的地质灾害易损性区划研究

地质灾害易损性评价对于指导高易损地区人们的防灾救灾工作具有重要意义.本文以河南省嵩县地区地质灾害为例,基于范数灰关联度方法对其易损性主要影响因子进行权重计算,得出各乡镇易损性指数;结合该地区地质灾害易发性对其结果进行调整,得出该地区易损性区划结果;指出研究中出现的一些问题并进行了分析.     

饮马河流域水环境综合风险时空分布

为评价饮马河流域水环境综合风险,从水环境风险的危险性、暴露性、脆弱性及区域治理能力4个方面构建了饮马河流域水环境综合风险评估体系.选取2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年的水环境数据进行分析,采用水环境污染风险指数法和层次分析法对饮马河流域水环境综合风险进行评估,并绘制了各年度饮马河流域的风险空间分布图,分析了饮马河流域水环境风险空间变化特征.结果表明:2000—2015年,各危险性指标的量化值不断减小;暴露性指标中,耕地面积不断扩大,工业企业个数不断增加,人口密度变化不明显;各脆弱性指标的量化值不断减小;水环境区域治理能力各指标的量化值不断增大.研究显示,2000—2015年,流域内水环境危险性和脆弱性不断降低,暴露性和区域治理能力逐渐升高,水环境风险逐渐降低;其中,长春市一直处于水环境高风险水平,伊通县一直处于低风险水平.      

全球变化下的适应性及其研究进展

全球变化及其相关的适应性研究是当前地学领域研究的焦点问题之一。在综述国内外相关研究成果的基础上,辨析全球变化、适应性等相关概念,梳理适应性研究的发展进程和侧重点,将其归纳为依附脆弱性研究和独立研究两大类。其中,依附脆弱性研究将脆弱性看作是适应能力的函数,研究主要集中在脆弱性评价下的适应指数研究、影响子因素分层研究与策略研究等几大部分;而独立适应性研究,通过构建完整的体系,研究集中在以指标评价法为代表的适应能力研究和以情景模拟法为代表的适应策略预测分析上。地学研究强调适应性的尺度问题,未来需加强对不同尺度规模适应性研究的定量分析,建立跨尺度适应性研究框架;深入研究城市适应全球变化的能力与策略;同时加强适应性研究相关技术和工具的开发,以提高适应能力评估的准确性及适应策略的科学性。     

The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part II—Integrating impacts with adaptive capacity

In the first paper in this series [Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H., Howden, S.M. (2010, this issue)], we concluded that hazard/impact modelling needs to be integrated with holistic measures of adaptive capacity in order to provide policy-relevant insights into the multiple and emergent dimensions of vulnerability. In this paper, we combine hazard/impact modelling with an holistic measure of adaptive capacity to analyse the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Bioeconomic modelling was used to model the exposure and sensitivity of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Rural livelihoods analysis was used as a conceptual framework to construct a composite index of adaptive capacity using farm survey data. We then show how this integrated measure of vulnerability provides policy-relevant insights into the constraints and options for building adaptive capacity in rural communities. In the process, we show that relying on hazard/impact modelling alone can lead to entirely erroneous conclusions about the vulnerability of rural communities, with potential to significantly misdirect policy intervention. We provide a preliminary assessment of which Australian rural communities are vulnerable to climate variability and change, and reveal a complex set of interacting environmental, economic and social factors contributing to vulnerability.     

Vulnerability to the health effects of climate variability in rural southwestern Uganda

Vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change will be shaped by the existing burden of ill- health and is expected to be highest in poor and socio-economically marginalized populations. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, is considered a highly vulnerable region. This paper analyses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of rural Bakiga communities in southwestern Uganda to climate-sensitive health risks. The objectives were threefold: i) identify key climate-sensitive, community-identified health priorities; ii) describe and characterize determinants of sensitivity to these health priorities at the individual, community and regional levels; and iii) assess the adaptive capacity of Bakiga. Data collection employed a combination of individual and key informant interviews, biographies, future storylines, and Photovoice. Three key health risks were identified by the study communities (malaria, food insecurity, and gastrointestinal illnesses) – all affected by local climatic and environmental conditions, livelihoods, land use changes, and socio-economic conditions. Adaptation within these communities is dependent on their capacity to reduce sensitivities to identified health challenges among the potential of increasing exposures. Crop diversification, reducing deforestation, expanding of livestock rearing, transfer of traditional knowledge, and access to affordable health services are among potential strategies identified. We demonstrate significant existing vulnerabilities to present day climate-related health risks and highlight the importance of non-climatic processes and local conditions in creating sensitivity to health risks. Our place-based understanding is useful to inform interventions or policies aimed to reduce exposure and sensitivity and support adaptive capacity as the conditions these communities face are consistent with many other sub-Saharan African countries.     

A global assessment of adaptation investment from the perspectives of equity and efficiency

Equity and efficiency should be considered when allocating resources for climate change adaptation. More than a decade after the Least Developed Countries Fund approved adaptation funds for 18 countries in 2003, it is possible to take the stock of investment data and to test empirically whether equity and efficiency have been factored into adaptation investment decision-making. To evaluate equity, one must determine if resources were distributed to areas of greatest need. Vulnerability assessments provide information on the global distribution of the need for adaptation. To evaluate efficiency, one must compare cost and benefit of an investment. Although it is difficult to assess ex-ante the cost and benefit of investment strategies, it is possible to measure efficient use of expenditures with readiness assessment, as a metric of capacity to deploy adaptation resources. We used vulnerability and readiness measures of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Country Index as proxies of equity and efficiency. This article quantitatively interrogates—through the lens of public fund allocation—the roles of vulnerability and readiness in shaping adaptation investment decisions. Our findings suggest that countries facing increasing impacts from climate change have received more adaptation investments from international sources than countries with less vulnerability. Further, international investments also preferentially flow to countries that are more ready to deploy adaptation resources. Since the most vulnerable countries are likely to be less ready for investment, our findings support the efforts to improve the investment potential of the most vulnerable countries by investing first to enhance their readiness, in order to unlock adaptation solutions.     

Indicators for assessing Indonesia’s Javan rhino National Park vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is already affecting ecosystems in protected forest areas. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted its impacts will accelerate rapidly over the coming decades. The components of vulnerability have been defined as exposure, sensitivity and the capacity to adapt to climate change. Vulnerability, however, is not an easy concept for policy makers, local communities and other affected stakeholders to understand. This paper illustrates the use of participatory processes in understanding climate change adaptation and defines indicators for assessing the vulnerability of the Javan rhino's national park habitat in Indonesia. The processes generated local vulnerability indicators, organised hierarchically as principles, criteria and indicators (PCIs). While vulnerability principles and criteria were pre-determined and globally defined, the indicators were designed to address the local context. We found the PCIs to be practical tools for communicating vulnerability and for multi-stakeholder dialogues on vulnerability to climate change.     

太湖蓝藻水华灾害风险分区评估方法研究

通过对太湖蓝藻水华灾害风险分析,构建太湖蓝藻水华风险评估指标体系,结合风险评估概念,建立太湖蓝藻水华灾害风险评估方法.在此基础上,以2008年为基准年,结合太湖9个分区,评估各湖区蓝藻水华灾害危险性、易损性、脆弱性和综合风险.结果表明,综合风险最大的区域集中在太湖的北部,尤其作为水源地的贡湖风险最大,为重度风险;竺山湖、梅梁湾和西部沿岸由于其危险性较大,而总体风险较大,为中度风险;其他湖区风险较小,胥湖、南部沿岸和大太湖为轻度风险;太湖的东南部湖区箭湖东茭咀和东太湖由于水体富营养化程度较低,植物覆盖率较高,蓝藻水华发生危险性较小,综合风险指数较小,为轻微风险.     

Afforestation opportunities when stand productivity is driven by a high risk of natural disturbance: a review of the open lichen woodland in the eastern boreal forest of Canada

Afforestation has the potential to offset the increased emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide and has therefore been proposed as a strategy to mitigate climate change. Here we review the opportunities for carbon (C) offsets through open lichen woodland afforestation in the boreal forest of eastern Canada as a case study, while considering the reversal risks (low productivity, fires, insect outbreaks, changes in land use and the effects of future climate on growth potential as well as on the disturbances regime). Our results suggest that : (1) relatively low growth rate may act as a limiting factor in afforestation projects in which the time available to increase C is driven by natural disturbances; (2) with ongoing climate change, a global increase in natural disturbance rates, mainly fire and spruce budworm outbreaks, may offset any increases in net primary production at the landscape level; (3) the reduction of the albedo versus increase in biomass may negatively affect the net climate forcing; (4) the impermanence of C stock linked to the reversal risks makes this scenario not necessarily cost attractive. More research, notably on the link between fire risk and site productivity, is needed before afforestation can be incorporated into forest management planning to assist climate change mitigation efforts. Therefore, we suggest that conceivable mitigation strategies in the boreal forest will likely have to be directed activities that can reduce emissions and can increase C sinks while minimizing the reversal impacts. Implementation of policies to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in the boreal forest should consider the biophysical interactions, the different spatial and temporal scales of their benefits, the costs (investment and benefits) and how all these factors are influenced by the site history.