汶川地震对四川及周边省区旅游业的影响

依据本底趋势线理论和1997-2008年统计数据,从更高的时空分辨率上,完成了汶川地震对四川及其周边省区旅游业影响的分析,结果显示:①2008年5-12月地震共使四川入境旅游损失112.1万人,国内旅游损失4 410.7万人,损失率分别为61.4%和22.4%;②四川北部主要旅游景点旅游业损失惨重,各景点游客损失率均达到了67.0%以上,其中,九寨沟、都江堰游客损失量较大,分别为212.2万人和194.7万人;③四川周边省区入境旅游遭受了不同程度的冲击,其中,湖北、甘肃损失量最大,分别为35.1万人和26.9万人;各省区受地震影响时间存在较大差异,地震影响期以甘肃最长,其影响期将超过8个月;④2008年汶川地震对四川及其周边省区旅游业的影响,其游客损失量与客流量基数(本底值)成正比;游客损失率与2008年本底值(基数)成反比;损失量和损失率两者均与汶川地震烈度分布存在一定的正比关系,以汶川为中心大致成同心圆状分布。     

九寨沟风景区游客入游距离特征研究

九寨沟风景区属于长江支流水系的上游，是长江支流源头区以景观资源（尤其是水景观）及生态旅游资源为特色的典型地区，目前旅游业成为当地及同类地区的旅游重要产业。旅游市场是当地旅游发展基础之一。在实地游客抽样调查及旅游区游客登记统计共涉及约2万人统计资料及数据库处理的基础上较系统地研究了九寨沟入游游客的入游距离特征。对九寨沟不同目标市场游客的入游距离特征进行了统计描述，揭示了游客入游距离与年龄、收入、职业、文化、心理收入、旅游态度相关，而与旅游动机相关性不明显，景观偏好可以反映游客的旅游心理特征，并在一定程度上影响入游距离。同时揭示了入游距离感知的距离衰减特征，印证了心理学感知理论中的韦伯理论在距离感知中的体现。还解释了游客的主观假设替代旅游地的旅游距离与入游距离呈线性相关关系。     

省域入境旅游经济的区域差异及发展模式

通过经济空间差异分析方法ESDA技术,对1997-2007年我国省域入境旅游经济的时空演化格局进行研究,探究省际差异,分析差异成因.分析发现:①省域总体空间差异缓慢扩大;②至2007年我国省域入境旅游经济已形成"三阶梯、两顶峰"的空间发展格局;③三阶梯间的入境旅游收入之比为一:二:三=13:1.5:1,可见阶梯间的界限非常明显,由此印证了阶梯划分的合理性;④从入境旅游经济对国民经济总体的贡献率来看,旅游业对处于第三阶梯的西藏具有重要意义;⑤省域间明显表现为一种"先进带动后进"的发展模式;⑥各阶梯处于不同的发展阶段,并由于主导作用的不同而表现为不同的发展趋势;⑦产生此种格局的根本原因在于,省域间旅游发展基础条件的差异和省际间的相互作用.     

山地民族地区旅游流网络结构及流动方式研究——以恩施州为例

恩施州是资源富集的山地民族旅游区,近年来旅游扶贫政策的推广为州内旅游业发展提供了新的机遇。正确理解和把握游客在州内的流动规模、流动方向和流动方式,对政府部门和旅游企业的科学决策和合理规划具有重要意义。通过提取网络游记信息,应用社会网络分析方法和ArcGIS空间分析方法对恩施州旅游流的空间网络结构和流动方式进行分析,研究表明：（1）恩施州旅游流网络结构整体较分散,各旅游节点间流动性不强;（2）恩施市,利川市和鹤峰县是州内旅游流交通集散中心,恩施大峡谷是恩施州旅游流网络的旅游集散中心;（3）恩施大峡谷、恩施土司城、土家女儿城和恩施市区4个节点是恩施州旅游流的核心节点,这4个节点之间联系较为紧密,也是联结其余节点的核心节点;（4）恩施州旅游流季节差异性较为明显,游客量主要集中在夏季和秋季;（5）游客主要选择大巴和自驾在恩施州内进行移动,州内旅游交通线路发展良好,但公共交通仍不能完全满足游客的出行需求;（6）旅游资源供需呈现不匹配特点,游客在州内空间流动较少受旅游节点等级和级别的影响。     

基于空间感知规律的城市旅游形象比较研究 --以南京市为例

根据空间感知规律，南京与同位于长江三角洲内、且均受吴越文化影响的上海、无锡、苏州和杭州均有可能产生城市旅游形象替代效应。为了分析南京城市旅游形象的独特性，将五座城市的城市旅游理念形象、视觉形象和行为形象分别进行比较，结果表明：(1)南京城市级别比上海低，但文化、自然遗产丰富；整体竞争力比无锡高；旅游基础不如苏州，但产品结构与体系较丰富；历史文化遗产保护和利用比杭州好等。(2)旅游视觉形象优势是文物古迹和民俗风情。(3)旅游服务形象评价较高，城市居民形象各具特点等。提出了南京城市旅游形象特色的构建对策。     

石林风景名胜区对乡村经济发展的影响

石林风景名胜区始建于20世纪30年代,旅游开发经历了居民游览、服务中心城市的接待观光型到区域支柱产业的转型。经济体制深刻地影响了石林旅游业,旅游产品延续了计划经济体制下形成接待观光游览型,形成以门票收入为主体的旅游经济收入格局,对不同层次的经济发展带来不同的影响。石林旅游业对县级经济收入、产业结构、财政、税收有积极影响,近5年石林旅游业占当地GDP的9%～11%,占第三产业产值的27.9% ～33%、财政收入的10.8%～0.1%,但对农业生产、农村居民就业和家庭收入的带动力弱,有明显的“距离衰减效应”。获得旅游效益的居民限于风景区旅游中心的村寨,约占风景区人口的15%,中心旅游区的第三产业就业人员比例比其它地区高7%～35%。中心区农民参与旅游业方式的调查表明,居民参与旅游业的方式被动：耕地被征用后,或被风景名胜区管理部门雇佣、或成个体工商户、或被外来企业雇佣,就业领域局限于餐饮服务、环卫和绿化、民族工艺品制作与销售、照相、旅游交通、导游等。风景区农村的基础建设、产业结构、就业领域与风景区功能和旅游业目标的协调存在距离。促进风景名胜区旅游业对所在地的“三农”发展的协调值得思考和解决。     

基于元分析的游客环境责任行为影响因素整合研究

游客环境责任行为对于推进我国旅游目的地生态环境保护及可持续发展具有重要意义，已有研究缺乏对游客环境责任行为影响因素的系统性整合研究。借助元分析法，从756篇国内外文献中筛选出30篇标准文献作为研究数据，对游客环境责任行为（TERB）影响因素进行整合研究。结果显示：（1）个人特征、感知价值、目的地体验、目的地涉入、地方特征、环境态度与地方依恋等7大因素均显著影响TERB，个人特征、感知价值与TERB之间呈中度正相关关系，其余因素与TERB之间均呈高度正相关关系，其中，目的地体验与TERB的正相关关系最强(r=0.600)，而个人特征最小(r=0.260)；（2）样本量、文化背景和出版类型在各因素对TERB的影响过程中具有调节效应，其中，样本量对个人特征、感知价值、目的地体验、目的地涉入、地方特征以及地方依恋与TERB间的关系均具调节作用；文化背景对个人特征、地方依恋与TERB间的关系存在显著的调节作用；出版类型对目的地体验、地方特征与TERB间的关系起到明显调节作用；（3）游客环境责任行为影响机理具有复杂性，不仅受到多个因素的共同影响，而且受到调节变量的影响。最后提出若干管理启示。     

三峡水库忠县至秭归县段消落带植被群落特征研究

为了研究三峡水库周期性的水位调节对消落带植被群落特征的影响，选择重庆忠县至宜昌秭归段的消落带植被群落进行研究，运用重要值和多样性指数分析不同高程的植物种类组成、生活型分布特征及物种多样性。结果表明：（1）研究区域统计植物共32科70属73种，禾本科、菊科和豆科是3个优势科，单种、属现象明显；狗牙根、苍耳、鬼针草、苘麻、鳢肠、酸模叶蓼、莲子草是3个高程的共存种，其中，狗牙根和苍耳在3个高程均为优势物种。（2）研究区域共统计11种植物生活型，在消落带下部和中部，一年生草本植物占绝对优势；在消落带上部，多年生草本植物成为优势生活型，生活型类型多样化，蕨类、藤本、灌木以及乔木植物开始出现。（3）消落带植物群落的丰富度、多样性、均匀度指数均随海拔变化表现出显著差异，并且随海拔升高呈现上升趋势。由此可见，水位变化对植物群落结构和物种多样性产生很大影响，在低海拔区段，消落带物种组成简单化，耐水淹和繁衍能力强的植物成为优势物种；随着海拔上升，水淹胁迫减弱，出现更多适应水位变化的植物种类，使植物群落沿海拔变化形成不同的分布特征。这些研究结果对三峡库区消落带生态修复植物的筛选，以及物种多样性的提高具有参考价值。     

中国旅游业碳生产率区域差异及其格局演变:1995—2014

利用"自下而上"法核算1995—2014年中国大陆30个省(市、区)旅游业碳生产率,采用标准差、变异系数等指标衡量旅游业碳生产率区域差异,并通过空间自相关分析探讨中国旅游业碳生产率区域差异格局演变特征。结果表明:1995—2014年中国旅游业碳生产率总体呈增长趋势,但增长幅度不大,其年均增长率为2.07%,旅游业碳生产率具体数值由1995年的1.120 1万元/t增长至2014年的1.653 0万元/t;旅游业碳生产率区域差异明显,但区域绝对差异和区域相对差异均逐步缩小;旅游业碳生产率空间分布不均,总体呈东高西低的空间格局;旅游业碳生产率的空间分布存在显著正空间自相关性,以及局部的不连续性;旅游业高碳生产率集聚区域主要分布在华北地区,以北京、天津、河北为主要代表;旅游业低碳生产率集聚区域主要分布在西北地区,以新疆、青海和陕西为主要代表;中国旅游业碳生产率整体水平较低,多数省区位于旅游业低碳生产率行列,研究期内旅游业低碳生产率的区域重心逐渐由西部向中部转移。基于上述结论,本文提出针对性建议:政府应制定低碳旅游相关的系列标准规范、行动方案以及保障性政策等,同时应加大对先进低碳技术和低碳设备的引进与推广;各省区应秉持低碳发展理念并将其融入目的地开发与管理之中;旅游企业应积极利用新能源、新材料和新技术,研发低碳旅游系列产品与服务;加大宣传生态环保理念,引导旅游者树立低碳旅游意识,优先选择低碳旅游景区和低碳出行方式,自觉抵制高碳排旅游活动。     

长江经济带“旅游+”复合系统协同发展的时空演化特征与空间差异研究

以长江经济带为研究区域，运用协同度模型、核密度估计、基尼系数、引力模型等，测算2010~2017年省域旅游产业与科技创新、现代金融、人力资源四维“旅游+”复合系统协同程度，并构建“经济带-流域-省域”多尺度分析框架，解析其空间差异的动态演变特征。结果表明：（1）各产业发展尚不充分，均表现为东北相对优势的空间非均衡特征；其中科技创新均衡化相对滞后于其他三者；（2）协同度整体呈缓慢提升态势，呈现“东北高，西南低”的空间趋势分布，且格局较为稳定；与下游相比，中上游协同度出现“断崖式”下跌，平均存在2~3年“时滞”；（3）长江经济带协同程度的区域差异渐趋缓和，按下中上游划分，差异主要来源于三大流域间的交错程度较高；（4）空间上逐渐形成“以江浙沪为核心，川渝为次核心”的双轮驱动发展网络结构，逐步牵引中上游协同水平提升。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.