A pattern of contractor selection for oil and gas industries in a safety approach using ANP-DEMATEL in a Grey environment

Contractor selection is one of the major concerns of industry managers such as those in the oil industry. The objective of this study was to determine a contractor selection pattern for oil and gas industries in a safety approach. Assessment of contractors based on specific criteria and ultimately selecting an eligible contractor preserves the organizational resources. Due to the safety risks involved in the oil industry, one of the major criteria of contractor selection considered by managers today is safety. The results indicated that the most important safety criterion of contractor selection was safety records and safety investments. This represented the industry’s risks and the impact of safety training and investment on the performance of other sectors and the overall organization. The output of this model could be useful in the safety risk assessment process in the oil industry and other industries.     

An economic evaluation framework for membrane reactor modules in the presence of uncertainty: The case for process safety investment and risk reduction

A comprehensive Net Present Value (NPV) model has been developed to demonstrate the economic advantages of process safety and risk reduction investments on Pd/Au-based membrane reactors. In particular, the economic viability of Pd/Au-based membrane reactor modules incorporated into Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plants is evaluated within the aforementioned framework by pro-actively following sound process safety design principles. Sources of irreducible uncertainty (market, technological, operational) as well as safety risk are explicitly recognized, such as the Pd/Au prices, membrane life-time and loss in the power plant capacity factor due to possible accidents. The effect of the above uncertainty drivers on the membrane module cost along with production disruption and associated revenue losses is elucidated using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques that enable the propagation of the above uncertain inputs through the NPV-model, and therefore, generate a more realistic distribution of the process system's value rather than a single-point/estimate that overlooks these uncertainties. Pre-investment on risk reducing measures, such as spare safety relief systems (cautionary redundancy) for membrane reactor modules operating at high pressures (e.g. 50 atm), is shown to be economically more attractive than cases where analogous safety measures are not implemented. Since accidents and possibly catastrophic events do happen in an uncertain world, additional investment on safety measures could ensure a safer and more profitable operation of the process system under consideration giving credence to the thesis that process safety investments may result in enhanced techno-economic performance in the presence of irreducible uncertainties.     

Risk assessment and risk reduction of an acrylonitrile production plant

Reducing accident occurrence in petrochemical plants is crucial, thus appropriately allocating management resources to safety investment is a vital issue for corporate management as international competition intensifies. Understanding the priority of safety investment in a rational way helps achieve this objective.In this study, we targeted an acrylonitrile plant. First, Dow Chemical's Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) identified the reaction process as having the greatest physical risk. We evaluated the severity of accidents in the reaction process using the Process Safety Metrics advocated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS); however, this index does not express damages a company actually experience. To solve this problem, we proposed a new metric that adds indirect cost to CCPS metrics. We adopted fault tree analysis (FTA) as a risk assessment method. In identifying top events and basic events, we attempted to improve the completeness of risk identification by considering accidents from the past, actual plant operation and equipment characteristics, natural disasters, and cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. Consequently, we identified the top events with high priority in handling because of serious accidents as fire/explosion outside the reactor, fire/explosion inside the reactor, and reactor destruction. The new CCPS evaluation index proposed in this study found that fire and explosion outside the reactor has the highest severity. We considered the creation of the fault tree (FT) diagram of the top event, estimating the occurrence probability, and identifying the risk reduction part and capital investment aimed at risk reduction. As an economically feasible selection method for risk reduction investment, using the difference in loss amounts before and after safety investments indicated investment priority.     

The insurance market’s influence on investments in safety measures

In a risky process there are three alternative ways to treat the negative consequences of the risk or the accident. We can: (1) take all the consequences when an accidental event occurs, (2) reduce the probability and/or the consequences of an accidental event by safety measures or (3) transfer the consequences of the occurrence to parties better able to carry them (i.e. buying insurance). In safety management a prevailing practice is that access to an insurance market does not affect the investment in safety measures. In this paper we discuss what the consequences are of this common practice in relation to insurance and mandatory safety requirements. We conclude that an overinvestment in safety measures is very likely if insurance is not taken into account. Moreover, mandatory safety measures and insurance can lead to both over- and underinvestment in safety measures.     

煤炭安全成本及其变动趋势分析

煤炭安全成本是煤炭生产的一种"附加性成本",它是煤炭企业安全工作质量的综合反映,是安全决策和安全工作评价的重要指标.对于煤炭企业来讲,安全生产的特殊性决定了安全成本在煤炭生产成本中占有很高的比例.研究煤炭安全成本及其变化趋势,对于促进安全与生产的协调发展,合理控制安全投入和优化安全成本结构,都具有重要的理论价值和现实意义.本文结合煤炭生产实际,理论与实践相结合地提出了安全成本分析指标,并在现场调研的基础上,利用调研资料,采用回归分析方法,对安全成本进行了变动趋势分析,建立了煤炭安全成本分析模型.通过模型分析得出了安全成本随安全保证程度而变化的规律.安全成本趋势分析及相关分析模型的建立,为煤炭企业进行安全管理与决策提供了有效的分析手段.     

基于灰色系统理论的安全投资方向优化分析

安全投资方向准确与否直接关系安全经济效益的高低。笔者依据安全工作的专业类型将安全投资划分为安全设施投资、工业卫生设施投资、辅助设施投资、安全宣传教育投资、劳动保护投资和事故处理及修复投资6个方向,选用灰色关联分析方法排序比较各方向安全投资与安全产出之间的关联度,以确定各安全投资方向的重要程度,并据此优化安全投资方向。从案例实证检验的结果表明,该方法准确度高,弥补了其他系统分析方法的不足;且可操行性强,方便、简单、实用。     

煤矿安全投资动态管理与政府资助研究

从煤炭企业和政府互动的角度出发,首先对煤矿安全投资项目存在的管理、技术及市场风险进行分析,针对安全投资整个生命周期的多阶段的内在特点,建立煤矿安全投资项目价值评估的动态决策模型,在规避风险的前提下实现项目价值的最大化.同时,考虑煤矿安全投资中煤炭企业投入和政府资助的合理配置与互动博弈,建立动态投资与政府资助决策模型.对模型中参数进行了分析,并进行了仿真分析.模型全面、客观的对煤矿安全投资项目的价值进行了评估,并对政府资助模式和决策进行了剖析.最后,提出了相关的政策建议.为煤矿安全投资和政府资助决策、实现最佳的经济效益和社会效益提供理论和方法论的支持.     

神华集团企业安全文化评价系统

实施风险预控管理是建立企业安全文化的有效途径之一。笔者在神华集团实施风险预控管理系统的基础上,通过分析国内外相关企业安全文化模式的共同特点,从风险预控管理的准则入手,建立了神华集团企业安全文化的评价模型。从管理层对安全的承诺、安全培训和安全意识、安全监督和检查、组织文化、沟通与交流、奖惩、采掘机运通生产系统的完善和安全投入、质量标准化工作和安全环境、风险评估、风险预控管理系统等10个方面的内容及40个分解内容,按照持续改进的要求,提出了安全文化的效果评价方法,并通过两个实例分析介绍了该安全文化评价模型的实际应用。     

民航企业安全投入的经济贡献率研究

通过对民航安全投入定义、特点及安全投入效益的分析,结合生产函数的有关概念及分析方法,建立了民航企业安全投入的经济贡献率分析模型。参考两家主要航空公司的有关安全投入的经济数据,采用该模型分析两公司的安全投入对企业利润和运输周转量的贡献率,以事实和数据证明安全投入是有产出的,对企业经济增长是有贡献的。从分析数据也可以看出,民航企业整体安全投入的经济贡献率远高于全国平均水平,其原因在于民航行业的高科技特点以及近年来在安全方面的持续投入。通过安全经济贡献率模型,可以对不同行业、不同企业的安全投入状况作出合理的比较和评价。     

Process design optimization and risk analysis

Hazard identification and risk assessment are key aspects in process plant design. They are often applied in the final stages of the process at whatever the cost, unless financial constraints are imposed. However, a much better solution would be to introduce risk analysis earlier by including it in earlier stages of the design process, such as when the cost of a plant and the cost of any accidents that may occur are estimated. In this paper, an optimization methodology is proposed, in which both cost and risk (with a deterministic approach) are taken into account, to improve on the current situation. If a decision variable is chosen, an objective function will be established that makes it possible to analyze variations in overall costs, including the cost of the investment and the cost of accidents. This leads to an optimum situation in which costs are kept to a minimum. Of course, this optimization is subject to constraints, the greatest of which is the fact that risk must not exceed tolerated threshold levels. The procedure is explained and two examples, one involving a toxic release and the other a BLEVE/fireball, are used to illustrate it.     

空管安全风险管理信息系统分析与设计

针对空中交通服务管理系统(简称为"空管",下同)中存在的安全管理不规范、安全信息不畅通和信息化程度低等安全管理问题,根据空管安全风险管理信息系统(SRMIS)的工作原理,提出SRMIS的业务流程和组织结构,设计了SRMIS的总体结构、风险管控和指标预警等主要功能,研究实现过程中的指标评价、部门评价和模糊综合评价等信息评价方法以及指标预警、因素预警和综合预警等预警预控方法和关键技术。该系统能进行持续的风险识别和综合预警,定期自检、自查、自审,不断改进安全管理工作,并在武汉空管中心实证有较好的应用效果,为空管中心的安全风险管理提供了信息化管理的工具和途径。     

安全投资与安全效益的预测及关联分析

运用灰色预测模型,建立了安全投资与事故损失预测模型.运用灰色关联理论,建立了安全投资与安全效益灰色关联分析模型,并利用这2个模型对某石化公司的安全分项投资及事故直接经济损失情况进行了案例分析.初步确定该企业安全投资中各分项投资与事故损失的预测值.确定了该企业安全投资中各分项投资与效益的相关程度,找出了安全投资结构中与效益关联度最大的因素,并优先将其作为安全投资方向.     

煤炭企业安全投资保障机制及其系统动力学分析

针对我国目前煤炭企业安全投资保障中所面临的问题,构建了"多方制约、良性互动"的煤炭企业安全投资保障机制,并从该机制各方"互赢"和制约性出发,将政府的安全监察、煤炭行业协会的安全预防、保险公司的安全保险对煤炭企业安全投资的保障作用进行了分析。然后,根据系统动力学(SD)原理,对其动力学特点进行了系统分析和论证。在此基础上,建立了煤炭企业安全投资保障机制的SD模型,并寻求保证煤炭企业一定收益水平的安全投资水平,以改善和优化煤炭企业安全投资保障行为的机会和途径,为综合评价煤炭企业安全投资保障机制运行效果提供了一种思路。     

安全投入统计指标体系探讨

安全投入统计指标体系在安全生产工作中发挥着重要作用 ,笔者认为 ,建立安全投入统计指标体系之前 ,应对安全投入进行重新定义 ,并按照投入功能的不同将其分为安全工程项目投入、劳动防护与保健投入、应急救援投入、安全宣传教育投入、日常安全管理投入、保险投入和事故投入七大部分。根据安全投入的分类对安全投入统计指标体系结构和具体内容进行了重新设计 ,新的安全投入统计指标体系与安全投入内容相对应 ,分成 7个方面 ,由 34个指标构成 ,不仅对每一个指标进行了清晰定义 ,而且给出了计量单位和具体的计算方法。     

Consequence risk analysis using operating procedure event trees and dynamic simulation

Faults due to human errors cost the petrochemical industry billions of dollars every year and can have adverse environmental consequences. Unquantified human error probabilities exist during process state transitions performed each day by process operators using standard operating procedures. Managing the risks associated with operating procedures is an essential part of managing the overall safety risk. Additional operator training and safety education cannot eliminate all such faults due to human errors; therefore, we propose an operating procedure event tree (OPET) like analysis with branches and events specifically designed to perform risk analysis on operating procedures. The OPET method adapts event trees to analyze the risk due to human error while performing operating procedures. We consider human error scenarios during the procedure and determine the likely consequences by applying dynamic simulation. The modified event tree provides an estimate of the error frequencies.Operating procedure steps were developed, and potential operator faults were determined for two typical equipment switching procedures found in chemical plant operations. Then, dynamic simulation using Aspen HYSYS software was applied to determine the overpressure related consequences of each fault. Finally, the error frequencies resulting from those scenarios were analyzed using operating procedure event trees. We found that a typical ethylene plant gas header would overpressure with 0.6% frequency per manual dryer switch. Since dryer switches occur from every few days up to once per shift, these results suggest that dryer switching should be automated to ensure safe and environmentally friendly operation. Process dryer switching performed manually by operators opening and closing gate valves can be automated with control valves and a distributed control system. A sample distillation column was found to overpressure with 0.85% frequency per manual reflux pump switch.     

催化裂解装置火灾爆炸危险性评价

道氏方法是对石化装置风险性进行量化评价的一种行之有效的方法,尤其是对装置的系统和单元的固有危险性及安全设施降低危险性的安全补偿作用进行认识和评价,采用道化学公司的火灾、爆炸危险指数法,对安庆石化炼油厂65×104t/a催化裂解装置的潜在火灾爆炸和反应危险性进行评价和分析,得到“严重”以上程度的单元有:加热炉、丙烷塔、丙烯塔、液化气储罐和汽油柴油储罐、反应器、瓦斯发生器、乙烷塔和稳定器,同时给出单元的危险等级和薄弱环节,为工厂的风险管理和安全管理决策提供了科学依据,并为降低装置风险提出了建议。     

Integration of accident scenario generation and multiobjective optimization for safety-cost decision making in chemical processes

Investment in Chemical Process Industries for improving their safety requires considering risk level, environmental effect, cost and many other aspects simultaneously. This paper focuses on a new systematic method of finding the most cost–risk–effective investment scenario set. The method uses the automatic accident scenario generation technique first to find a set of the most dangerous scenarios. Then it uses the multiobjective optimization method to decide the priority of the investment. These computations includes considering many constraints such as limited budget, environmental requirements and social demands. The Styrene Monomer plant case study proves the practical use of this integration method of accident scenario generation and multiobjective optimization.     

The weighted risk analysis

Safety and risk assessment are characterised by aspects, like subjectivity and objectivity. In this paper, relations between safety and risk are described. When a risk analysis is performed, it is important to realise that decision-making about risks is very complex, and not only technical aspects but also economical, environmental, comfort related, political, psychological and societal acceptance are aspects that play an important role. In order to balance safety measures with aspects, such as environmental, quality, and economical aspects, a weighted risk analysis methodology is proposed in this paper. This paper also provides a theoretical background regarding the scope of safety assessment in relation to the decision-making in complex urban development projects adjacent to or above transport routes of hazardous materials. In Western Europe, such projects are realised due to shortage of space. The weighted risk analysis is an interesting tool comparing different risks, such as investments, economical losses and the loss of human lives, in one-dimension (e.g., money), since both investments and risks could be expressed solely in money. Finally, the weighted risk analysis approach is applied in a case study of Bos and Lommer, Amsterdam.     

Got a risk reduction strategy?

Process safety can be viewed as part of a triad that supports safety in a petrochemical facility. The other two parts are OSHA-type people safety (slips, falls, etc.) and industrial hygiene. The paper will look at process safety from a top down, plant centric view. Process safety can be distilled down to the basic concept of risk reduction. If we reduce risk, our facility will be safer. The obvious problem is that we have potential risks everywhere so how are we going to reduce all these risks to an acceptable level. Clearly we need a strategy or to use a less fancy word – a plan.Too many times it is easy to concentrate on certain aspects such as safety instrumented systems (SIS), layer of protection analysis (LOPA), behavioral safety, prevention, etc. and lose track of the whole picture of what risk reduction entails in a plant.This paper will look at risk reduction in a facility from a plant viewpoint and will cover the details and concepts of risk reduction across a wide spectrum of plant functionalities – safety climate and culture, process safety management, mechanical integrity and risk, layers of protection in risk reduction, loss of containment/hazard relationship, the risk reduction bow-tie diagram, developing a risk reduction strategy, risk reduction strategy elements, and sustainability.It will also discuss some key concepts in dealing with risk reduction in general.     

中国民航业安全风险监测与仿真研究

根据系统安全的思想,通过对航空安全历史数据的分析和专家经验,从人员、设备设施、环境和组织管理4个方面,提出中国民航机务、空管、飞行、机场4个分系统安全风险监测指标体系,共102个风险因素指标,并合成为27个行业安全风险监测指标。以民航历史数据为样本,建立资源优化神经网络(RON)模型,将安全风险监测指标与中国民航安全指数相联系,分析安全指数的关键影响因素,达到安全管理决策支持的目的。通过建立的风险监测指标体系和RON模型,可以实现民航整个行业、各分系统及单个指标的安全风险监测和预警。