Water Consumption and Long-run Socio-economic Development: an Intervention and a Principal Component Analysis for the City of Milan

This paper analyses the evolution of water consumption in Milan during the twentieth century. However, dealing with a century time series raises some complicated statistic and econometric issues. To study the main research questions outlined by the literature, as the presence of consumption habits and the link between consumption and price, we use a quite original approach – based on intervention analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) – which seems to be more adequate than “regression-type” approaches to study a so long time series. Results indicate (1) how some events have modified the normal evolution of per-capita water consumption; (2) that per-capita water consumption is a very persistent series, namely, that water users should have well-developed consumption habits; (3) that per-capita consumption and water price present a strong negative correlation.

A Numerical Model Simulating the Remediation of Hydrocarbon-Impacted Soils Using Low-Temperature Oxidation

A 2-D mathematical model to simulate the temperature distribution, coke formation, and change in residual extractable oil during remediation by low-temperature oxidation (LTO) process was developed. Simulation results indicate that the spacing between wells, pressure difference, and air-injection temperature and different well patterns influence the temperature distribution and consequently the level of remediation in the soil. The model results for coke formation and residual extractable oil distribution compared well with experimental results. The operating conditions—air-injection temperature of about 200°C, air-injection pressure of 6 to 10 kPa, air-extraction pressure of −110 Pa, and wells spaced 1 m apart installed in a nine-spot pattern—provide good remediation of hydrocarbons in soil by LTO process.

Disequilibrium and Indivisibility of Pollution Control Equipment Under a Permit-Trading System: A Case Study of Kao-Hsiung and Ping-Tung Counties in Taiwan

A mixed-integer programming model that minimizes the social abatement cost is used to investigate whether a market equilibrium condition could be reached in a newly proposed permit-trading market for nitrogen oxide control in Taiwan. Unlike in previous studies, unit pollution abatement cost is determined endogenously by incorporating technology adoption as a binary decision variable. The results show that when technologies are lumpy and irreversible, disequilibrium might occur due to firms’ inability to manage their emission levels after installing equipment with fixed size and control capacity.

KLUM@GTAP: Introducing Biophysical Aspects of Land-Use Decisions into a Computable General Equilibrium Model a Coupling Experiment

In this paper, the global agricultural land use model Kleines Land Use Model is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) Global Trade Analysis Project in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasise the impact and relevance of the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent.

Environmental Objectives,Cost Efficiency,and Multivariate Stochastic Control

This paper is concerned with the cost efficiency in achieving the Swedish national air quality objectives under uncertainty. To realize an ecologically sustainable society, the parliament has approved a set of interim and long-term pollution reduction targets. However, there are considerable quantification uncertainties on the effectiveness of the proposed pollution reduction measures. In this paper, we develop a multivariate stochastic control framework to deal with the cost efficiency problem with multiple pollutants. Based on the cost and technological data collected by several national authorities, we explore the implications of alternative probabilistic constraints. It is found that a composite probabilistic constraint induces considerably lower abatement cost than separable probabilistic restrictions. The trend is reinforced by the presence of positive correlations between reductions in the multiple pollutants.

On Limits to the Use of Linear Markov Strategies in Common Property Natural Resource Games

We derive conditions that must be satisfied by the primitives of the problem in order for an equilibrium in linear Markov strategies to exist in some common property natural resource differential games. These conditions impose restrictions on the admissible form of the natural growth function, given a benefit function, or on the admissible form of the benefit function, given a natural growth function.

Probabilistic Modelling of Cattle Farm Distribution in Australia

A probabilistic Bayesian method called weights of evidence (WofE) was used to develop a synthetic dataset of cattle farm locations at a national scale across Australia. The synthetic dataset was required for the modelling of livestock movements with a view to assessing biosecurity implications. The WofE method is based on the analysis of spatial relationships between evidential patterns with respect to an event, such as the actual location of a farm. The evidential patterns of cattle farms were derived from maps of land use, land tenure, drainage systems, roads, settlements and long-term averaged rainfall. These evidential patterns were used for delineating and ranking land areas suitable for cattle farming. For each evidential pattern statistics such as a positive weight, a negative weight and a contrast were calculated for estimating the degree of correlation between the evidential patterns and known farm locations. The integrated evidential patterns of known farms were then used for estimating posterior probabilities and splitting land into five different classes according to its suitability for farming.

Evaluation of marine outfall with three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality modeling

Numerical models are often used to evaluate the potential impact of human alternation of natural water bodies and to help the design of the alternation to mitigate its impacts. In the past decade, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and reactive transport modeling has matured from a research subject to a practical analysis technology. This paper presents a practical study in which a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model [hydrodynamic eutrophication model (HEM-3D)] was applied to determine the optimal location for treated wastewater discharged from marine outfall system in the Keelung harbor and the adjacent coastal sea. First, model validation was conducted with respect to surface elevation, current, and water quality variables measured in the Keelung harbor station and its coastal sea. The overall performance of the model was in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to evaluate several scenarios of the locations from marine outfall system. Based on model simulation results, a location at the northeast of Ho-Ping Island was recommended for adoption because the environmental impact is smaller than any other alternative.

The Precautionary Principle as a Robust Cost-Effectiveness Problem

This paper offers an interpretation of the precautionary principle in terms of a safety target that a decision-maker has to reach at a minimal cost in a robust way. A two-period model is used. The precautionary principle corresponds to a situation in which the decision-maker, facing an ex ante indecision, is not able to reach a safe target from the initial condition in a worst-case framework. However, he can efficiently succeed whenever the uncertainty at the second period is revealed to him. An example coping with the management of a renewable resource illustrates the general results of the paper.

A Flexible Global Warming Index for Use in an Integrated Approach to Climate Change Assessment

Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index used to measure the cumulative radiative forcing of a tonne of greenhouse house gas (GHG) relative to that of a ‘reference’ gas (CO₂). Under the Kyoto Protocol, GWP can be used as a fixed index to govern the trade-off between different GHGs in a multi-gas approach to GHGs abatement. The use of fixed GWPs has been criticized for not being very cost effective compared to the use of some flexible indices. To gain wider acceptance, however, a flexible index must also prove to be easy to use, and the economic gains from its adoption must be significant. In this paper, we develop a flexible index based on the concept of marginal rather than cumulative or average global warming potentials. These marginal global warming potentials (MGWPs) can be endogenously determined within a climate model given a particular climate objective based on radiative forcing level. The MGPWs are then linked to the marginal abatement costs of the GHGs, which are also endogenously determined within an economic model. When the two concepts are linked in this way, the result is a cost-effective way of achieving a particular climate change objective with multigas abatement. We show that the savings in costs when using this flexible MGPWs can be significant, and more importantly, they are not uniformly distributed across different regions.

Comparison of Numerical and Experimental Results for the Evaluation of the Depollution Effectiveness of Photocatalytic Coverings in Street Canyons

Towards the aim of improving the air quality in the urban environment via the application of innovative TiO₂ based photocatalytic coverings, a field campaign took place within the frame of the EU PICADA project () to asses the expected depollution efficiency of such materials under realistic conditions. Furthermore, extensive numerical modeling was performed via the application of the RANS CFD code for microscale applications MIMO, in an effort to asses the sensitivity of the developing flow field and the corresponding dispersion mechanism and hence of the depollution efficiency of the PICADA products on a wide range of factors, with most notably the length of the street canyon, the thermal exchange between the heated street canyon walls and the air and the approaching wind direction. For the needs of the PICADA project a new, simple module had to be implemented into MIMO to be able to model the removal of NO_x from a street canyon whose walls have been treated with a photocatalytic product. The model simulations results presented in this paper, show that MIMO is indeed capable of predicting the effectiveness of the photocatalytic products in question. At the same time, they reveal a strong dependence of the developing flow and concentration fields inside the field site street canyon configuration on most of the aforementioned factors with most notably the direction of the approaching wind.

A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

CO2 Capture and Storage with Leakage in an Energy-Climate Model

Geological CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is among the main near-term contenders for addressing the problem of global climate change. Even in a baseline scenario, with no comprehensive international climate policy, a moderate level of CCS technology is expected to be deployed, given the economic benefits associated with enhanced oil and gas recovery. With stringent climate change control, CCS technologies will probably be installed on an industrial scale. Geologically stored CO₂, however, may leak back to the atmosphere, which could render CCS ineffective as climate change reduction option. This article presents a long-term energy scenario study for Europe, in which we assess the significance for climate policy making of leakage of CO₂ artificially stored in underground geological formations. A detailed sensitivity analysis is performed for the CO₂ leakage rate with the bottom-up energy systems model MARKAL, enriched for this purpose with a large set of CO₂ capture technologies (in the power sector, industry, and for the production of hydrogen) and storage options (among which enhanced oil and gas recovery, enhanced coal bed methane recovery, depleted fossil fuel fields, and aquifers). Through a series of model runs, we confirm that a leakage rate of 0.1%/year seems acceptable for CCS to constitute a meaningful climate change mitigation option, whereas one of 1%/year is not. CCS is essentially no option to achieve CO₂ emission reductions when the leakage rate is as high as 1%/year, so more reductions need to be achieved through the use of renewables or nuclear power, or in sectors like industry and transport. We calculate that under strict climate control policy, the cumulative captured and geologically stored CO₂ by 2100 in the electricity sector, when the leakage rate is 0.1%/year, amounts to about 45,000 MtCO₂. Only a little over 10,000 MtCO₂ cumulative power-generation-related emissions are captured and stored underground by the end of the century when the leakage rate is 1%/year. Overall marginal CO₂ abatement costs increase from a few €/tCO₂ today to well over 150 €/tCO₂ in 2100, under an atmospheric CO₂ concentration constraint of 550 ppmv. Carbon costs in 2100 turn out to be about 40 €/tCO₂ higher when the annual leakage rate is 1%/year in comparison to when there is no CO₂ leakage. Irrespective of whether CCS deployment is affected by gradual CO₂ seepage, the annual welfare loss in Europe induced by the implementation of policies preventing “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (under our assumption, implying a climate stabilisation target of 550 ppmv CO₂ concentration) remains below 0.5% of GDP during the entire century.

The long time scales of the climate–economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate–economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century. 4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth.

Testing differences in methods of preparing moss samples

The main objective of this research was to estimate the total mass of nitrogen discharged from various sources in Korea using the mass balance approach. Three different nitrogen mass balances were presented: (1) agricultural activities including raising crops and animal husbandry; (2) domestic activities, and (3) activities in forest and urban areas. These nitrogen balances were combined to estimate riverine discharge of nitrogen to the ocean in national scale. Nitrogen inputs include atmospheric deposition, biological nitrogen fixation, application of inorganic fertilizers/manures, animal feed/imported foodstuffs, and meat/fish. Nitrogen outputs include ammonia volatilization, denitrification, human/animal waste generation, crop/meat production, and riverine discharge to the ocean. The estimated total nitrogen input in Korea was 1,194.5 × 10³ tons N/year. Nitrogen discharged into rivers was estimated as 408–422 × 10³ tons N/year, of which 66–71% was diffuse in origin. The estimated diffuse discharges for land uses were estimated as 82 × 10³ tons N/year from agricultural areas, 7 × 10³ tons N/year from forestry and 75 × 10³ tons N/year from urban and industrial areas.     

Progressive Optimal Technology-based Border Carbon Adjustment (POT BCA) - A New Approach to an Old Carbon Problem

The idea of Border Carbon Adjustment (BCA), which makes it possible to transform the standard tax on carbon emissions from production (origin principle) to a tax system imposed at the point of consumption (destination principle), has received a considerable amount of attention from academia and policymakers. In this paper, we go back to the source of environmental destination-based taxation and generalize the results of Markusen (Journal of International Economics, 5, 15–29, 1975) for optimal tax and tariff by extending domestic environmental policy on both goods featuring positive carbon intensities. Following Jakob et al. (Environmental and Resource Economics, 56(1), 47–72, 2013) we remove the strategic term from the optimal tariff and deal with the so-called optimal carbon tariff, targeting primarily environmental externality. Further, we develop a handy approximation for optimal tax and optimal carbon tariff structure in a multiple good setting. Such trade taxation is, however, likely to face further legal obstacles, which may hinder its implementation. This motivates us to adjust the results accordingly and to include refunds for low-carbon investments in a ‘dirty’ country granted proportionally to the difference in carbon intensities between trade partners. This new scheme, known as Progressive Optimal Technology-based Border Carbon Adjustment (POT BCA), mitigates several legal problems and increases political acceptance compared to the ‘standard’ BCA. It can also be seen as advantageous from the economic point of view: it mimics the performance of the optimal carbon tariff while aiming to decrease foreign carbon intensity over the long term.     

Microbiological risk infection assessment using QMRA in agriculture systems in Côte d’Ivoire,West Africa

Poor wastewater management that results from a lack of appropriate sanitation infrastructure contributes to increasing health risks in urban areas in Côte d’Ivoire. We assessed the health risks associated with the use of wastewater for watering salad destined for human consumption, to help local authorities in developing appropriate risk mitigation measures for Yamoussoukro, the political capital of Côte d’Ivoire. We applied a stochastic approach based on quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), focusing on wastewater for farming activities and salad consumption at the household level. Farming activities rely on a large degree on contaminated water and are conducted without any protection. The QMRA highlights that the poor quality of watering water increased the microbiological risk of the two assessed groups of urban farmers and individual households. The annual risk of infection due to watering wastewater in the city is estimated at 0.01 per person per year (pppy) for Giardia lamblia and 0.2 pppy for Escherichia coli O157:H7. The annual risk from salad consumption is 0.01 pppy for G. lamblia and 0.9 pppy for E. coli O157:H7. Both the annual risks from farming activities and salad consumption were higher than the tolerable standard of risk of 10^?4 pppy as defined by the World Health Organization. There is a need to conduct a risk analysis and a cost-effectiveness study on intervention to improve public health and the livelihoods of the producers which are women in majority in Yamoussoukro.     

Assessing the effects of dam building on land degradation in central Iran with Landsat LST and LULC time series

This study aimed to analyze the impact of Zayandehrood Dam on desertification using the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST) in an arid environment in central Iran from 1987 to 2014. The LULC and LST images were calculated from Landsat TM, ETM+, and OLI data, and their accuracies were assessed against reference data using error matrix and linear regression analysis. Results showed that salty and bare lands increased up to 57,302 ha, while agricultural lands declined substantially (28,275.58 ha) in the region. The changes in LULC classes resulted in dramatic variations in LST values. The average temperature showed a 5.03 °C increase, and the minimum temperature increased by 5.66 °C. LST had an increasing trend in bare lands (8.74 °C), poor rangelands (6.8 °C), agricultural lands (9.46 °C), salty lands (9.6 °C), and residential areas (3.18 °C) in this 27-year period. Rainfall and temperature trend analysis revealed that the main cause of these extreme changes in LULC and LST was largely attributed to the drying up of Zayandehrood River due to dam construction and allocating water mainly for industrial sectors. Results indicate that in addition to LULC changes, the spatio-temporal variations of LST can be used as an effective index in desertification assessment and monitoring in arid environments.     

Improving the effectiveness of planning EIA (PEIA) in China: Integrating planning and assessment during the preparation of Shenzhen's Master Urban Plan

The enactment and implementation of the 2003 EIA Law in China institutionalised the role of plan environmental impact assessment (PEIA). While the philosophy, methodology and mechanisms of PEIA have gradually permeated through the various levels of government with a positive effect on the process and outcome of urban planning, only a few cities in China have so far carried out PEIA as a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)-type procedure. One such case is the southern city of Shenzhen. During the past three decades, Shenzhen has grown from a small town to a large and booming city as China has successfully and rapidly developed its economy by adopting the “reform and open door” policy. In response to the challenges arising from the generally divergent processes of rapid urbanisation, economic transformation and environment protection, Shenzhen has incrementally adopted the SEA concept in developing the city's Master Urban Plan. As such, this paper reviews the effectiveness of PEIA in three ways:

• • 

  as a tool and process for achieving more sustainable and strategic planning;

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  to determine the level of integration of SEA within the planning system; and,

• • 

  its effectiveness vis-à-vis implementation.

The implementation of PEIA within Shenzhen's Master Urban Plan offers important insights into the emergence of innovative practices in undertaking PEIA as well as theoretical contributions to the field, especially in exploring the relationship between PEIA and SEA and highlighting the central role of local governing institutions in SEA development.     

Atmospheric concentrations of nitric acid, sulfur dioxide, particulate nitrate and particulate sulfate, and estimation of their dry deposition on the urban- and mountain-facing sides of Mt. Gokurakuji, Western Japan

Atmospheric concentrations of nitric acid (HNO₃), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate nitrate and particulate sulfate on the urban- and mountain-facing sides of Mt. Gokurakuji were measured from November 2002 to October 2003, in order to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic activity on air quality and dry deposited nitrate and sulfate on the surfaces of pine foliage. The results showed that HNO₃, SO₂ and concentrations were significantly higher (P < 0.05) on the urban-facing side (1.54, 2.48 and 0.65 μg m⁻³, respectively) than the mountain-facing side (0.67, 1.19 and 0.37 μg m⁻³, respectively), while concentrations did not differ significantly between the two sides (urban-facing: 2.80 μg m⁻³; mountain−facing: 2.05 μg m⁻³). Indirect estimates of dry deposition rates of nitrate and sulfate to the surfaces of pine foliage based on the measured concentrations approximately agreed with the measured values determined by the foliar rinsing technique in a previous study. It was found that HNO₃ was the major source (approximately 80%) of dry deposited nitrate on pine foliage, while the contribution from was about equal to that from SO₂. In conclusion, HNO₃ and SO₂ appear to be dominant species reflecting higher dry deposition rates of nitrate and sulfate on the urban-facing side compared to the mountain-facing side of Mt. Gokurakuji.