Sensitivity to change for low-ANC eastern US lakes and streams and brook trout populations under alternative sulfate deposition scenarios

A weight-of-evidence approach was used by the US National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) to assess the sensitivity of chemistry and biology of lakes and streams to hypothesized changes in sulfate deposition over the next 50 years. The analyses focused on projected effects in response to differences in the magnitude and the timing of changes in sulfate deposition in the north-eastern United States, the Mid-Appalachian Highlands, and the Southern Blue Ridge Province. A number of tools was used to provide the weight of evidence that is required to have confidence in an assessment that has many uncertainties because of the complexity of the systems for which the projections of future conditions were made and because of limited historical data. The MAGIC model provided the projections of chemical changes in response to alternative deposition scenarios. Projected chemical conditions were input into biological models that evaluate effects on fish populations. The sensitivity of water chemistry and brook trout resources to the hypothesized changes in deposition was found to be greatest in the Adirondacks and Mid-Atlantic Highlands. Under the hypothesized sulfur deposition reduction scenarios, chemical conditions suitable for fish were projected to improve 20-30 years sooner than with the scenario that assumed no new legislated controls. Other lines of evidence, e.g. other models, field observations, and paleolimnological findings, were used to evaluate uncertainty in the projections. Model parameter/calibration uncertainty for the chemical models and population sampling uncertainty were explicitly quantified. Model structural uncertainties were bracketed using model comparisons, recent measured changes, and paleolimnological reconstructions of historical changes in lake chemistry.     

Modeling Past and Future Acidification of Swedish Lakes

Decades of acid deposition have caused acidification of lakes in Sweden. Here we use data for 3000 lakes to run the acidification model MAGIC and estimate historical and future acidification. The results indicate that beginning in about 1920 a progressively larger number of lakes in Sweden fell into the category of “not naturally acidified” (∆pH > 0.4). The peak in acidification was reached about 1985; since then many lakes have recovered in response to lower levels of acid deposition. Further recovery from acidification will occur by the year 2030 given implementation of agreed legislation for emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) in Europe. But the number of catchments with soils being depleted in base cations will increase slightly. MAGIC-reconstructed history of acidification of lakes in Sweden agrees well with information on fish populations. Future acidification of Swedish lakes can be influenced by climate change as well as changes in forest harvest practices.     

Regional scale evidence for improvements in surface water chemistry 1990-2001

The main aim of the international UNECE monitoring program ICP Waters under the Convention of Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) is to assess, on a regional basis, the degree and geographical extent of the impact of atmospheric pollution, in particular acidification, on surface waters. Regional trends are calculated for 12 geographical regions in Europe and North America, comprising 189 surface waters sites. From 1990-2001 sulphate concentrations decreased in all but one of the investigated regions. Nitrate increased in only one region, and decreased in three North American regions. Improvements in alkalinity and pH are widely observed. Results from the ICP Waters programme clearly show widespread improvement in surface water acid-base chemistry, in response to emissions controls programs and decreasing acidic deposition. Limited site-specific biological data suggest that continued improvement in the chemical status of acid-sensitive lakes and streams will lead to biological recovery in the future.     

Acid rain and acidification in China: the importance of base cation deposition

Acid deposition has been recognized as a serious environmental problem in China. Most acid deposition studies have focused on sulfur deposition and the pH of precipitation. However, as high concentration of alkaline dust is an important feature of the atmosphere in large parts of China, base cation deposition must be taken into account when discussing possible effects on soils and vegetation from acid deposition. We estimate the deposition of sulfur as well as calcium, i.e. the dominating anion and cation, on a regional scale in China using data both from measurements and modeling. The ratio of sulfur/calcium in deposition is then used as an indicator for identifying areas where deposition acidity exceeds alkalinity, and where soils may be at risk to acidification. The dynamic soil acidification model MAGIC is applied with data from two sites receiving high deposition loads in southwest China. The model predictions indicate that considerable soil acidification has been going on for the last decades due to acid deposition inputs. Effects on the spatial distribution of acidic deposition in China, using different future deposition scenarios, are illustrated. As the size of the anthropogenic fraction of the base cation deposition is unknown, different possible future trends in calcium deposition were used. Soil response, according to the model, using different combinations of sulfur and calcium deposition scenarios is shown. Applying the most strict measures to reduce sulfur emission will almost eliminate the acid deposition problem; however, such a scenario is not economically feasible in the short term. A strict, but possibly realistic, future scenario for sulfur may be enough to keep the situation at the present level, assuming only moderate reductions in calcium deposition. With large decreases in base cation deposition, increased soil acidification can be expected even with considerable sulfur emission reductions.     

Dynamic modelling of recovery from acidification of lakes in Killarney Park,Ontario, Canada

During much of the 1900s, the lakes in Killarney Provincial Park have been exposed to high levels of acid deposition due to sulfur emissions from the nearby metal smelters in Sudbury. The sulfur emissions from this large point source have decreased to about 10% of what they were in the 1960s. Lake water quality in Killarney Park has greatly changed in response to reduced emissions, with noticeable declines in sulfate, aluminum and calcium concentrations. Here we apply the dynamic acidification model MAGIC to 3 lakes in Killarney Park. The lakes, which have different buffering capacities and response times, were selected to represent fast, intermediate and slow recovery from acidification. The model was calibrated to match observed data for the lakes and 4 different forecast scenarios for future sulfur deposition reductions were applied. The results indicate that there is still a large potential for improvement in the water quality in Killarney. The recovery time for the different lakes varies greatly. For the lake having the slowest response time several decades are needed for the chemistry to stabilize after implementation of deposition reductions.     

Recovery of crustacean zooplankton communities from acidification in Killarney Park,Ontario, 1971-2000: pH 6 as a recovery goal

Despite reductions in atmospheric SO4(2-) deposition and resultant decreases in surface water acidity, widespread biological recovery from acidification has not yet been documented. Temporal trends in crustacean zooplankton species richness (number of species) and composition were examined between 1971-2000 in 46 Killarney Park lakes, Ontario, Canada, to assess the degree of biological recovery in lakes with significant water quality improvements, i.e. pH now > 6, compared to 2 other groups: i) lakes which never acidified; and ii) lakes which are still acidified (pH < 6). Time trends in species richness could not be distinguished among the 3 groups of lakes, nor did changes in species richness indicate recovery. In contrast, the zooplankton community composition of lakes in which the pH increased to above 6, as measured by a multivariate index of species abundances, changed from a "damaged" state to one typical of neutral lakes. Some recovery in composition was also documented for the acidic lakes. While still acidic, the pH levels of these lakes have risen. The extent and pace of recovery in Killarney Provincial Park bodes well for the future of other acidified regions in North America and Europe.     

Will reduced sulphur emissions under the Second Sulphur Protocol lead to recovery of acid sensitive sites in UK?

A conceptual model of the combined effects of acid deposition and land-use, Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments (MAGIC), was applied to 21 upland sites in the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network (AWMN) to assess the likely future recovery in response to the latest international agreements controlling anthropogenic sulphur emissions throughout Europe. Future estimates of sulphur deposition were generated by the Hull Acid Rain Model (HARM), based on the agreed reductions outlined in the Second Sulphur Protocol. The results indicate only a limited degree of recovery in surface-water chemistry at all sites over the next 50 years; moreover, a continuing decline in soil base status is predicted to occur at 70% of sites, resulting in longer term reacidification of surface-water at 38% of sites. However, compared with a 'business as usual' scenario the recovery is pronounced, although acidified sites will require further reductions in acidic deposition if recovery to pre-industrial chemical conditions are to be achieved. Furthermore, land-use scenarios at afforested sites suggest that replanting of felled forest will lead to a further increase in acidification. This strengthens the argument that plantation forestry should be avoided in areas considered geologically sensitive to acidic deposition.     

Contemporary (1979-1988) and inferred historical status of headwater lakes in North Central Ontario, Canada

Fifty-six headwater Canadian Shield lakes were repetitively sampled from 1979 to 88 to determine their response to changes in acidic deposition of the period. Annual wet sulphate loadings varied between 38 and 83 meq m(-2), with highest deposition in the late 1970s followed by somewhat lower but variable deposition in the 1980s. Median pH of the lakes increased 0.42 pH units from 1979 to 1985 and decreased by 0.15 units between 1985 and 1988. Short water renewal times (x=1.1 y) promoted rapid equilibration. Since lake were so responsive to changes in SO4(2-) inputs, they were at or near steady state at all times. Comparison of predicted original pH and ANC with 1979 data indicate a median decline of 0.45 pH units and a loss of 34 microeq litre(-1). ANC. Four of 9 lakes were found to be historically fishless, based on the continued presence of Chaoborus americanus in sediment cores. The remaining five lakes historically had fish populations, but fish were not collected in 1979 when pH ranged betwen 4.6 and 5.3. By 1987, fish species were found in five of these lakes where pH had increased on average by 0.9 pH units. Our data indicate that water quality improvements could allow for the reinvasion or resumption of recruitment for a significant number of Ontario lakes.     

Trends in surface water chemistry of acidified UK freshwaters, 1988-2002

Analysis of water chemistry data from 15 years of monitoring at 22 acid-sensitive lakes and streams in the UK reveals coherent national chemical trends indicative of recovery from acidification. Excess sulphate and base cations exhibit significant decline, often accompanied by an increase in an alkalinity-based determination of acid neutralising capacity (AB-ANC) and, at fewer sites, a decline in hydrogen and labile aluminium. Acid neutralising capacity determined by "charge-balance" (CB-ANC) exhibits few trends, possibly due to compound errors associated with its determination. Trend slopes in excess sulphate correlate with those for base cations, hydrogen ion and AB-ANC, with between-site variability linked to catchment hydrology, sea-salt inputs and forestry. Nitrate concentrations have not changed significantly but show high sensitivity to varying climate. Trends in AB-ANC are influenced by significant increases in dissolved organic carbon, the cause of which it is vital to establish before trends in the former can definitively be attributed to decreasing acidic deposition.     

Sources of acidity in lakes and streams of the United States

Acidic (acid neutralizing capacity [ANC] < or = 0) surface waters in the United States sampled in the National Surface Water Survey (NSWS) were classified into three groups according to their probable sources of acidity: (1) organic-dominated waters (organic anions > SO4*; (2) watershed sulphate-dominated waters (watershed sulphate sources > deposition sulphate sources); and (3) deposition-dominated waters (anion chemistry dominated by inputs of sulphate and nitrate derived from deposition). The classification approach is highly robust; therefore, it is a useful tool in segregating surface waters into chemical categories. An estimated 75% (881) of acidic lakes and 47% (2190) of acidic streams are dominated by acid anions from deposition and are probably acidic due to acidic deposition. In about a quarter of the acidic lakes and streams, organic acids were the dominant source of acidity. In the remaining 26% of the acidic streams, watershed sources of sulphate, mainly from acid mine drainage, were the dominant source of acidity.     

Towards a model of acidification effects on waterfowl in Eastern Canada

Data from 212 lakes in central Ontario were used to examine the relationship between presence of breeding waterfowl and loons and the following lake characteristics: pH, presence of fish, lake area, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total phosphorus (TP) concentration. In univariate analyses, the two fish-eating species preferred large, high pH lakes with fish, while insectivorous species showed little consistent pattern of lake association. Logistic regression analyses confirmed that large lake size and presence of fish were important determinants of presence of piscivores, though the residual effect of pH differed between the two species. Broods of three of the four insectivorous species avoided lakes with fish, and independently showed a positive response to pH. By calculating the probability that fish will be present on a lake of given area and pH, it is possible to estimate the net effect of pH change on these waterfowl. Relationships such as those presented here can, with some assumptions, be linked to models of lake acidification to estimate response of waterfowl to predicted changes in acidic deposition.     

Recovery from acidification in central Europe--observed and predicted changes of soil and streamwater chemistry in the Lysina catchment,Czech Republic

The geochemical model MAGIC was applied to estimate streamwater and soil chemistry between 1851 and 2030 at the Lysina catchment, an acid-sensitive granitic catchment covered by planted Norway spruce monoculture in the western Czech Republic. The total deposition of sulfur to the catchment was 164 meq m(-2) in 1991, but had declined to 52 meq m(-2) by 2000. Although SO2 emissions in the region declined by 90% compared to the 1980s, acidification recovery was small within the period 1990-2000. Stream pH increased only slightly (from 3.92 to 4.07), although SO4 concentration declined sharply from 568 microeq l(-1) (1990) to 232 microeq l(-1) (2000). Organic acids played an important role in streamwater buffering. According to the MAGIC prediction using deposition measured in 1999-2000, streamwater pH will increase to 4.3 and soil base saturation will increase to 6.2% by 2030 (from 5.7% in 2002). Pre-industrial pH was estimated to be 5.5 and soil base saturation 24.7%. The loss of base cations (Ca, Mg, Na, K) was caused predominantly by atmospheric acidity, but intensive forestry was responsible for approximately one third of the net base cation loss via accumulation in harvested biomass. Severely damaged sites, under continued pressure from forestry, will not return to a good environmental status in the near future (if ever) when the acid deposition input is only partially reduced.     

Modelling acidification at Beacon Hill-a low rainfall, high pollutant deposition site in Central England

The model MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) has been applied to the Beacon Hill site, near Loughborough in Central England. This site is heavily impacted by wet and dry deposition of oxides of sulphur and nitrogen. The high acid inputs have caused soil acidification and acid stream waters. Long term simulations suggest that there has been a major decline in alkalinity and pH over the past 50 years. Despite recent reductions in deposition levels, soils and streams are predicted to continue to acidify in the future. For this heavily impacted site, deposition must be reduced by 80-90% to reverse the acidification trend and allow recovery of soil and stream waters.     

Recovery of Soil Water,Groundwater, and Streamwater From Acidification at the Swedish Integrated Monitoring Catchments

Recovery from anthropogenic acidification in streams and lakes is well documented across the northern hemisphere. In this study, we use 1996–2009 data from the four Swedish Integrated Monitoring catchments to evaluate how the declining sulfur deposition has affected sulfate, pH, acid neutralizing capacity, ionic strength, aluminum, and dissolved organic carbon in soil water, groundwater and runoff. Differences in recovery rates between catchments, between recharge and discharge areas and between soil water and groundwater are assessed. At the IM sites, atmospheric deposition is the main human impact. The chemical trends were weakly correlated to the sulfur deposition decline. Other factors, such as marine influence and catchment features, seem to be as important. Except for pH and DOC, soil water and groundwater showed similar trends. Discharge areas acted as buffers, dampening the trends in streamwater. Further monitoring and modeling of these hydraulically active sites should be encouraged.     

Decreased acid deposition and the chemical recovery of Killarney,Ontario, lakes

Lakes in Killarney Park near Sudbury, Ontario, Canada, have shown dramatic water quality changes including general increases in pH and alkalinity, and decreases in SO4(2-), base cations and metals. While some lakes have recovered to pH > 6.0, many are still highly acidic despite decades of improvement. Very high historical S deposition related to emissions from the Sudbury metal smelters dominated the acidification process in this region. However, since the implementation of substantial S emission controls (90%) at the smelters, the Sudbury emissions are no longer the major source of S deposition in the Sudbury area. Wet deposition of SO4(2-) and SO4(2-) concentrations in lakewaters at Killarney now approach values in the Dorset, Ontario, area, about 200 km from Sudbury. This suggests that the S deposition to the Killarney area is now primarily from long-range transport, not from local sources. Studies of Killarney lakes are revealing the complex nature of the chemical recovery process. As lake acidity decreases, other changes including decreased Ca2+ concentrations, increased transparency, and altered thermal regimes may potentially affect some of these ecosystems. It is clear that continuing assessments of the recovery of Killarney lakes, within a multiple-stressor framework, are needed.     

Modeling recovery of Swedish ecosystems from acidification

Dynamic models complement existing time series of observations and static critical load calculations by simulating past and future development of chemistry in forest and lake ecosystems. They are used for dynamic assessment of the acidification and to produce target load functions, that describe what combinations of nitrogen and sulfur emission reductions are needed to achieve a chemical or biological criterion in a given target year. The Swedish approach has been to apply the dynamic acidification models MAGIC, to 133 lakes unaffected by agriculture and SAFE, to 645 productive forest sites. While the long-term goal is to protect 95% of the area, implementation of the Gothenburg protocol will protect approximately 75% of forest soils in the long term. After 2030, recovery will be very slow and involve only a limited geographical area. If there had been no emission reductions after 1980, 87% of the forest area would have unwanted soil status in the long term. In 1990, approximately 17% of all Swedish lakes unaffected by agriculture received an acidifying deposition above critical load. This fraction will decrease to 10% in 2010 after implementation of the Gothenburg protocol. The acidified lakes of Sweden will recover faster than the soils. According to the MAGIC model the median pre-industrial ANC of 107 microeq L(-1) in acid sensitive lakes decreased to about 60 microeq L(-1) at the peak of the acidification (1975-1990) and increases to 80 microeq L(-1) by 2010. Further increases were small, only 2 microeq L(-1) between 2010 and 2040. Protecting 95% of the lakes will require further emission reductions below the Gothenburg protocol levels. More than 7000 lakes are limed regularly in Sweden and it is unlikely that this practice can be discontinued in the near future without adverse effects on lake chemistry and biology.     

The effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and southern Wyoming, USA-a critical review

The Rocky Mountains of Colorado and southern Wyoming receive atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition that ranges from 2 to 7 kg ha(-1) yr(-1), and some previous research indicates pronounced ecosystem effects at the highest rates of deposition. This paper provides a critical review of previously published studies on the effects of atmospheric N deposition in the region. Plant community changes have been demonstrated through N fertilization studies, however, N limitation is still widely reported in alpine tundra and subalpine forests of the Front Range, and sensitivity to changes in snow cover alone indicate the importance of climate sensitivity in these ecosystems. Retention of N in atmospheric wet deposition is <50% in some watersheds east of the Continental Divide, which reflects low biomass and a short growing season relative to the timing and N load in deposition. Regional upward temporal trends in surface water NO(3)(-) concentrations have not been demonstrated, and future trend analyses must consider the role of climate as well as N deposition. Relatively high rates of atmospheric N deposition east of the Divide may have altered nutrient limitation of phytoplankton, species composition of diatoms, and amphibian populations, but most of these effects have been inconclusive to date, and additional studies are needed to confirm hypothesized cause and effect relations. Projected future population growth and energy use in Colorado and the west increase the likelihood that the subtle effects of atmospheric N deposition now evident in the Front Range will become more pronounced and widespread in the future.     

Systematic comparison of ILWAS, MAGIC, and ETD watershed acidification models: 3. Mass balance budgets for acid neutralizing capacity

Three watershed acidification models-ILWAS, MAGIC, and ETD-were quantitatively compared to determine model structural differences by using a combination of input mapping and ANC mass balance budgets. Input mapping is a set of rules and algorithms to ensure that consistent input values were simultaneously derived for all three models. ANC budget analysis under current SO4(2-) deposition and a 70% reduction in SO4(2-) deposition allows examination of the relative importance of biogeochemical processes in affecting predictions of ANC or predicted changes in ANC. Model inputs were based on two dissimilar watersheds having characteristics typical of watersheds in the northeastern US. After mapping inputs, the three models predicted values of outflow ANC fluxes that were similar among the models for each watershed and deposition scenario. Within each watershed, the changes in outflow ANC fluxes between the scenarios were similar for the three models. Terrestrial weathering was the major source of ANC for all three models for both watersheds and deposition scenarios. The contributions of other processes to the ANC of the two watersheds were, under certain conditions, model-specific. Cation exchange was responsible for changes in ANC when deposition decreased for the three models. Other processes responsible for changes in ANC between scenarios were SO4(2-) sorption (for MAGIC) and in-lake weathering (for ETD). The processes responsible for the change in ANC from a change in deposition (cation exchange, SO4(2-) sorption, and in-lake weathering) were different from the processes contributing to the absolute ANC for a given deposition scenario (terrestrial weathering). The budget analysis complements an earlier Monte Carlo analysis that showed that the three models are structurally different and that predictions viewed on a relative scale are more similar than absolute scale predictions.     

Occurrence and sources of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls in surficial sediments of Lakes Superior and Huron

Concentrations and congener profile patterns of 2378-substituted PCDD/Fs and DLPCBs in offshore, nearshore and tributary sediments of Lakes Superior and Huron are reported, and spatial trends and source contributions assessed. PCDD/F concentrations ranged from 5 to 18 000 pg/g dw (Lake Superior) and 3 to 6100 pg/g dw (Lake Huron); DLPCBs ranged from 9 to 11 000 pg/g dw (Lake Superior) and 9 to 27 000 pg/g dw (Lake Huron). Our analysis indicated atmospheric deposition is a primary source to depositional areas of both lakes; however, greater PCDD/F and DLPCB concentrations were observed at several nearshore and tributary sites, and were attributed to corresponding land use in the watershed. Statistical analysis and pattern comparison suggested that industrial inputs mainly associated with wood treatment plants, pulp and paper mills, mining operations, and chlorine-based chemical manufacturing also contributed to contamination by PCDD/Fs and DLPCBs in certain nearshore and offshore areas of Lakes Superior and Huron.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in lake sediments from the High Tatras

European alpine lake systems are used as indicators of air quality over the continent. Preliminary data showed high polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) loads in the High Tatras (Eastern Europe) in comparison to other mountain regions. Here, insight on the spatial distribution of PAH is provided from analysis of top-core sediments of 27 alpine lakes distributed along the High Tatras.Top-core sediment concentrations were higher than those in deep-cores, and they were higher than those observed in other European high mountain regions. The PAH profiles were uniform and comparable to those observed in aerosols and snow, indicating that atmospheric deposition was the predominant PAH input pathway to the lakes. Good agreement between estimated atmospheric deposition and sedimentation fluxes was observed. However, in several lakes in the western range higher sediment fluxes may correspond to higher PAH depositions levels. The higher concentrations may also reflect inputs from potential emission source areas.