Assessment of Uncertainty in Long-Term Mass Balances for Acidification Assessments: A MAGIC Model Exercise

Long-term (1860–2010) catchment mass balance calculations rely on models and assumptions which are sources of uncertainty in acidification assessments. In this article, we report on an application of MAGIC to model acidification at the four Swedish IM forested catchments that have been subject to differing degrees of acidification stress. Uncertainties in the modeled mass balances were mainly associated with the deposition scenario and assumptions about sulfate adsorption and soil mass. Estimated base cation (BC) release rates (weathering) varied in a relatively narrow range of 47–62 or 42–47 meq m⁻² year⁻¹, depending on assumptions made about soil cation exchange capacity and base saturation. By varying aluminum solubility or introducing a dynamic weathering feedback that allowed BC release to increase at more acidic pHs, a systematic effect on predicted changes in acid neutralizing capacity (ΔANC ca. 10–41 μeq l⁻¹) and pH (ca. ΔpH = 0.1–0.6) at all sites was observed. More robust projections of future changes in pH and ANC are dependent on reducing uncertainties in BC release rates, the timing, and extent of natural acidification through BC uptake by plants, temporal changes in soil element pools, and fluxes of Al between compartments.     

Sources of acidity in lakes and streams of the United States

Acidic (acid neutralizing capacity [ANC] < or = 0) surface waters in the United States sampled in the National Surface Water Survey (NSWS) were classified into three groups according to their probable sources of acidity: (1) organic-dominated waters (organic anions > SO4*; (2) watershed sulphate-dominated waters (watershed sulphate sources > deposition sulphate sources); and (3) deposition-dominated waters (anion chemistry dominated by inputs of sulphate and nitrate derived from deposition). The classification approach is highly robust; therefore, it is a useful tool in segregating surface waters into chemical categories. An estimated 75% (881) of acidic lakes and 47% (2190) of acidic streams are dominated by acid anions from deposition and are probably acidic due to acidic deposition. In about a quarter of the acidic lakes and streams, organic acids were the dominant source of acidity. In the remaining 26% of the acidic streams, watershed sources of sulphate, mainly from acid mine drainage, were the dominant source of acidity.     

The MAGIC simulation of surface water acidification at, and first year results from, the Bear Brook Watershed Manipulation, Maine, USA

The catchments of East and West Bear Brooks, Maine, USA, have been hydrologically and chemically monitored for 3.5 years. Stream chemistries and hydrographs are similar. These clear water streams are low in ANC (0-70 microeq litre(-1)), with variations caused by changing concentrations of base cations, SO4, NO3 and Cl. The latter range between 90-120, 0-40 and 65-75 microeq litre(-1), respectively. The West Bear catchment is being treated with six applications per year of dry (NH4)2SO4 at 1800 eq ha(-1) year(-1). After one year of treatment, the response of the stream chemistry and the response modelled by MAGIC are similar. Retentions of NH4 and SO4 are nearly 100% and greater than 80%, respectively. The additional flux of SO4 is compensated principally by an increased Ca concentration. Episodes of high discharge in the treated catchment are now characterized by lower ANC and pH, and higher Al than prior to the manipulation. Concentrations of NO3 have increased about 10 microeq litre(-1) during the dormant season, presumably due to additional nitrification of N from NH4. Discharge-chemistry relationships indicate that changes in stream chemistry, except for NO3, are dominated by ion exchange reactions in the upper part of the soil profile.     

Use of historical assessment for evaluation of process-based model projections of future environmental change: Lake acidification in the Adirondack mountains, New York, USA

Because of the considerable uncertainties associated with modeling complex ecosystem processes, it is essential that every effort be made to test model performance prior to relying on model projections for assessment of future surface water chemical response to environmental perturbation. Unfortunately, long-term chemical data with which to validate model performance are seldom available. The authors present here an evaluation of historical acidification of lake waters in the northeastern United States, and compare historical changes in a set of lakes to hindcasts from the same watershed model (MAGIC) used to estimate future changes in response to acidic deposition. The historical analyses and comparisons with MAGIC model hindcasts and forecasts of acid-base response demonstrate that the acidic and low-ANC lakes in this region are responsive to strong acid inputs. However, the model estimates suggest lakewater chemistry is more responsive to atmospheric inputs of sulfur than do the estimates based on paleolimnological historical analyses. A 'weight-of-evidence approach' that incorporates all available sources of information regarding acid-base response provides a more reasonable estimate of future change than an approach based on model projections alone. The results of these analyses have important implications for predicting future surface water chemical change in response to acidic deposition, establishing critical loads of atmospheric pollutants, and other environmental assessment activities where natural variation often exceeds the trends under investigation (high noise-to-signal ratio). Under these conditions, it is particularly important to evaluate future model projections in light of historical trends data.     

Sensitivity to change for low-ANC eastern US lakes and streams and brook trout populations under alternative sulfate deposition scenarios

A weight-of-evidence approach was used by the US National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) to assess the sensitivity of chemistry and biology of lakes and streams to hypothesized changes in sulfate deposition over the next 50 years. The analyses focused on projected effects in response to differences in the magnitude and the timing of changes in sulfate deposition in the north-eastern United States, the Mid-Appalachian Highlands, and the Southern Blue Ridge Province. A number of tools was used to provide the weight of evidence that is required to have confidence in an assessment that has many uncertainties because of the complexity of the systems for which the projections of future conditions were made and because of limited historical data. The MAGIC model provided the projections of chemical changes in response to alternative deposition scenarios. Projected chemical conditions were input into biological models that evaluate effects on fish populations. The sensitivity of water chemistry and brook trout resources to the hypothesized changes in deposition was found to be greatest in the Adirondacks and Mid-Atlantic Highlands. Under the hypothesized sulfur deposition reduction scenarios, chemical conditions suitable for fish were projected to improve 20-30 years sooner than with the scenario that assumed no new legislated controls. Other lines of evidence, e.g. other models, field observations, and paleolimnological findings, were used to evaluate uncertainty in the projections. Model parameter/calibration uncertainty for the chemical models and population sampling uncertainty were explicitly quantified. Model structural uncertainties were bracketed using model comparisons, recent measured changes, and paleolimnological reconstructions of historical changes in lake chemistry.     

Nitrogen sources to watersheds and estuaries: role of land cover mosaics and losses within watersheds

Across most of the World's coastal zone there has been a geographic transition from naturally vegetated to human-altered land covers, both agricultural and urban. This transition has increased the nitrogen loads to coastal watersheds, and from watersheds to receiving estuaries. We modeled the nitrogen entering the watershed of Waquoit Bay, Massachusetts, and found that as the transition took place, nitrogen loads to watersheds increased from 1938 to 1990. The relative magnitude of the contribution by wastewater, fertilizers, and atmospheric deposition depends on the land cover mosaics of a watershed. Atmospheric deposition was the major input to the watershed surface during this period, but because of different rates of loss within the watershed. wastewater became the major source of nitrogen flowing from the watershed to the receiving estuaries. Atmospheric deposition prevails in watersheds dominated by natural vegetation such as forests, but wastewater may become a dominant source in watersheds where urbanization increases. Increased nitrogen loads resulting from conversion of natural to human-altered watershed surfaces create eutrophication of receiving waters, with attendant changes in water quality, and marked shifts in the flora and food webs of the affected estuaries. Management efforts for restoration of eutrophied estuaries require maintenance of forested land, and control of wastewater and fertilizer inputs, the major terms in most affected places subject to local management. Wastewater and fertilizer nitrogen derive from within the watershed, which means local measures may effectively be used to control eutrophication of receiving waters.     

Application of four watershed acidification models to Batchawana Watershed, Canada

Four watershed acidification models (TMWAM, ETD, ILWAS, and RAINS) are reviewed and a comparison of model performance is presented for a common watershed. The models have been used to simulate the dynamics of water quantity and quality at Batchawana Watershed, Canada, a sub-basin of the Turkey Lakes Watershed. The computed results are compared with observed data for a four-year period (Jan. 1981-Dec. 1984). The models exhibit a significant range in the ability to simulate the daily, monthly and seasonal changes present in the observed data. Monthly watershed outflows and lake chemistry predictions are compared to observed data. pH and ANC are the only two chemical parameters common to all four models. Coefficient of efficiency (E), linear (r) and rank (R) correlation coefficients, and regression slope (s) are used to compare the goodness of fit of the simulated with the observed data. The ILWAS, TMWAM and RAINS models performed very well in predicting the monthly flows, with values of r and R of approximately 0.98. The ETD model also showed strong correlations with linear (r) and rank (R) correlation coefficients of 0.896 and 0.892, respectively. The results of the analyses showed that TMWAM provided the best simulation of pH (E=0.264, r=0.648), which is slightly better than ETD (E=0.240, r=0.549), and much better than ILWAS (E=-2.965, r=0.293), and RAINS (E=-4.004, r=0.473). ETD was found to be superior in predicting ANC (E=0.608, r=0.781) as compared to TMWAM (E=0.340, r=0.598), ILWAS (E=0.275, r=0.442), and RAINS (E=-1.048, r=0.356). The TMWAM model adequately simulated SO4 over the four-year period (E=0.423, r=0.682) but the ETD (E=-0.904, r=0.274), ILWAS (E=-4.314, r=0.488), and RAINS (E=-6.479, r=0.126) models all performed poorer than the benchmark model (mean observed value).     

Recovery from acidification in central Europe--observed and predicted changes of soil and streamwater chemistry in the Lysina catchment,Czech Republic

The geochemical model MAGIC was applied to estimate streamwater and soil chemistry between 1851 and 2030 at the Lysina catchment, an acid-sensitive granitic catchment covered by planted Norway spruce monoculture in the western Czech Republic. The total deposition of sulfur to the catchment was 164 meq m(-2) in 1991, but had declined to 52 meq m(-2) by 2000. Although SO2 emissions in the region declined by 90% compared to the 1980s, acidification recovery was small within the period 1990-2000. Stream pH increased only slightly (from 3.92 to 4.07), although SO4 concentration declined sharply from 568 microeq l(-1) (1990) to 232 microeq l(-1) (2000). Organic acids played an important role in streamwater buffering. According to the MAGIC prediction using deposition measured in 1999-2000, streamwater pH will increase to 4.3 and soil base saturation will increase to 6.2% by 2030 (from 5.7% in 2002). Pre-industrial pH was estimated to be 5.5 and soil base saturation 24.7%. The loss of base cations (Ca, Mg, Na, K) was caused predominantly by atmospheric acidity, but intensive forestry was responsible for approximately one third of the net base cation loss via accumulation in harvested biomass. Severely damaged sites, under continued pressure from forestry, will not return to a good environmental status in the near future (if ever) when the acid deposition input is only partially reduced.     

Contemporary (1979-1988) and inferred historical status of headwater lakes in North Central Ontario, Canada

Fifty-six headwater Canadian Shield lakes were repetitively sampled from 1979 to 88 to determine their response to changes in acidic deposition of the period. Annual wet sulphate loadings varied between 38 and 83 meq m(-2), with highest deposition in the late 1970s followed by somewhat lower but variable deposition in the 1980s. Median pH of the lakes increased 0.42 pH units from 1979 to 1985 and decreased by 0.15 units between 1985 and 1988. Short water renewal times (x=1.1 y) promoted rapid equilibration. Since lake were so responsive to changes in SO4(2-) inputs, they were at or near steady state at all times. Comparison of predicted original pH and ANC with 1979 data indicate a median decline of 0.45 pH units and a loss of 34 microeq litre(-1). ANC. Four of 9 lakes were found to be historically fishless, based on the continued presence of Chaoborus americanus in sediment cores. The remaining five lakes historically had fish populations, but fish were not collected in 1979 when pH ranged betwen 4.6 and 5.3. By 1987, fish species were found in five of these lakes where pH had increased on average by 0.9 pH units. Our data indicate that water quality improvements could allow for the reinvasion or resumption of recruitment for a significant number of Ontario lakes.     

Mechanisms of episodic acidification in low-order streams in Maine, USA

Five factors contribute to episodic depressions in pH and ANC during hydrologic events in low-order streams in Maine: (1) increases of up to 50 microeq litre(-1) NO3; (2) increases of up to 75 microeq litre(-1) organic acidity; (3) increases of as much as 0.3 in the anion fraction of SO4; (4) as much as 100 microeq litre(-1) acidity generated by the salt-effect in soils; and (5) typically < or = 40% dilution by increased discharge. In conjunction with increased discharge, factors 1, 2 or 4 appear necessary to depress pH to less than 5.0. The chemistry of individual precipitation events is irrelevant to the generation of acidic episodes, except those caused by high loading of neutral salts in coastal regions. Increases in discharge, but not necessarily in dilution of solutes, in combination with the chronically high SO4 from atmospheric deposition, provide the antecedent chemical conditions for episodic acidification. Differences in antecedent moisture conditions determine the processes that control output of either ANC or acidifying agents to aquatic systems.     

A statistical approach to the regional use of critical loads

The premise of this paper is that: (1) effects of spatial heterogeneity of watershed response to acid deposition must be considered when models are used to set abatement policies, and (2) the evaluation of critical chemical values is a better measure off the effects of abatement policies than the comparison of deposition values to critical loads. The authors used Monte Carlo methods to apply a site-specific version of the RAINS-Lake-Model to a regional data set from The Netherlands. Statistical methods were then used to identify the important parameters affecting the spatial and temporal response, i.e. a change in pH, of watersheds to acid deposition and a subset of sensitive and insensitive watersheds were derived. The results show that the failure to subset a region into sensitive and insensitive zones may result in an erroneous estimation of the effect of abatement policies based on critical loads alone.     

Projected stream water fluxes of NO3 and total organic carbon from the Storgama headwater catchment, Norway, under climate change and reduced acid deposition

Fluctuations in the 20-year record of nitrate (NO3) and total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations and fluxes in runoff at the small headwater catchment Storgama, southern Norway, were related to climate and acid deposition. The long-term decline in NO3 related to reduced NO3 deposition and increased winter discharge, whereas the long-term increase in TOC related to reduced sulfur deposition. Multiple regression models describing long-term trends and seasonal variability in these records were used to project future concentrations given scenarios of climate change and acid deposition. All scenarios indicated reduced NO3 fluxes and increased TOC fluxes; the largest projected changes for the period 2071-2100 were -86% and +24%, respectively. Uncertainties are that the predicted future temperatures are considerably higher than the historical record. Also, nonlinear responses of ecosystem processes (nitrogen [N] mineralization) to temperature, N-enrichment of soils, and step-changes in environmental conditions may affect future leaching of carbon and N.     

Acid rain and acidification in China: the importance of base cation deposition

Acid deposition has been recognized as a serious environmental problem in China. Most acid deposition studies have focused on sulfur deposition and the pH of precipitation. However, as high concentration of alkaline dust is an important feature of the atmosphere in large parts of China, base cation deposition must be taken into account when discussing possible effects on soils and vegetation from acid deposition. We estimate the deposition of sulfur as well as calcium, i.e. the dominating anion and cation, on a regional scale in China using data both from measurements and modeling. The ratio of sulfur/calcium in deposition is then used as an indicator for identifying areas where deposition acidity exceeds alkalinity, and where soils may be at risk to acidification. The dynamic soil acidification model MAGIC is applied with data from two sites receiving high deposition loads in southwest China. The model predictions indicate that considerable soil acidification has been going on for the last decades due to acid deposition inputs. Effects on the spatial distribution of acidic deposition in China, using different future deposition scenarios, are illustrated. As the size of the anthropogenic fraction of the base cation deposition is unknown, different possible future trends in calcium deposition were used. Soil response, according to the model, using different combinations of sulfur and calcium deposition scenarios is shown. Applying the most strict measures to reduce sulfur emission will almost eliminate the acid deposition problem; however, such a scenario is not economically feasible in the short term. A strict, but possibly realistic, future scenario for sulfur may be enough to keep the situation at the present level, assuming only moderate reductions in calcium deposition. With large decreases in base cation deposition, increased soil acidification can be expected even with considerable sulfur emission reductions.     

Nutrient dynamics and the eutrophication of shallow lakes Kasumigaura (Japan), Donghu (PR China), and Okeechobee (USA)

We compared the nutrient dynamics of three lakes that have been heavily influenced by point and non-point source pollution and other human activities. The lakes, located in Japan (Lake Kasumigaura), People's Republic of China (Lake Donghu), and the USA (Lake Okeechobee), all are relatively large (> 30 km2), very shallow (< 4 m mean depth), and eutrophic. In all three lakes we found strong interactions among the sediments, water column, and human activities. Important processes affecting nutrient dynamics included nitrogen fixation, light limitation due to resuspended sediments, and intense grazing on algae by cultured fish. As a result of these complex interactions, simple empirical models developed to predict in-lake responses of total phosphorus and algal biomass to external nutrient loads must be used with caution. While published models may provide 'good' results, in terms of model output matching actual data, this may not be due to accurate representation of lake processes in the models. The variable nutrient dynamics that we observed among the three study lakes appears to be typical for shallow lake systems. This indicates that a greater reliance on lake-specific research may be required for effective management, and a lesser role of inter-lake generalization than is possible for deeper, dimictic lake systems. Furthermore, accurate predictions of management impacts in shallow eutrophic lakes may require the use of relatively complex deterministic modeling tools.     

Importance of natural soil processes relative to atmospheric deposition in the mobility of aluminium in forested watersheds of the Black Forest

The dynamics of aqueous aluminium in the ARINUS experimental watersheds at Schluchsee (granite) and Villingen (quartz sandstone), Black Forest (South-west Germany), were studied in order to detect the processes and factors controlling its mobility. Aluminium speciation was performed in the seepage of typical soils (podsol, acidic brown earth, stagnogley) at 3 depths (organic layer, 30 cm and 80 cm of the mineral soil) as well as in streamwater. The studies concentrated on the variability in time and space of inorganic monomeric Al (Ali), and organic monomeric Al (Alo). Furthermore, the equilibrium speciation model WATEQF was used to calculate the distribution of inorganic Al species. Natural soil properties and processes, such as DOC mobilization and excess mineralization of NO3(2-) and SO4(2-), appeared to have great influence and outweigh the deposition effects upon Al mobilization in these systems which receive only low to moderate loads of acidic deposition.     

Long-term change in the suitability of welsh streams for dippers Cinclus cinclus as a result of acidification and recovery: a modelling study

Using a recognized and widely used hydrochemical model, MAGIC, long-term changes in acidity were simulated at 104 sites in the acid sensitive region of upland Wales. Conditions were modelled in the future (2010) under different reductions in sulphate deposition from 0 to 90% of 1984 values. Chemical output from the model was used to simulate change in the chemical suitability of streams for a species of river bird, the Dipper Cinclus cinclus, known to be affected by acidification According to simulations, only reductions in sulphate deposition by over 50% of 1984 levels prevented decline in the number of streams chemically suitable for Dippers. Greater reductions in deposition in the model permitted some recovery except where conifer forestry occupied acid sensitive catchments. There are several uncertainties with the models in their present form.     

Dynamic modelling of atmospherically-deposited Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb in Pennine catchments (northern England)

Simulation modelling with CHUM-AM was carried out to investigate the accumulation and release of atmospherically-deposited heavy metals (Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb) in six moorland catchments, five with organic-rich soils, one with calcareous brown earths, in the Pennine chain of northern England. The model considers two soil layers and a third layer of weathering mineral matter, and operates on a yearly timestep, driven by deposition scenarios covering the period 1400-2010. The principal processes controlling heavy metals are competitive solid-solution partitioning of solutes, chemical interactions in solution, and chemical weathering. Agreement between observed and simulated soil metal pools and surface water concentrations for recent years was generally satisfactory, the results confirming that most contemporary soil metal is from atmospheric pollution. Metals in catchments with organic-rich soils show some mobility, especially under more acid conditions, but the calcareous mineral soils have retained nearly all anthropogenic metal inputs. Complexation by dissolved organic matter and co-transport accounts for up to 80% of the Cu in surface waters.     

Dynamic modelling of recovery from acidification of lakes in Killarney Park,Ontario, Canada

During much of the 1900s, the lakes in Killarney Provincial Park have been exposed to high levels of acid deposition due to sulfur emissions from the nearby metal smelters in Sudbury. The sulfur emissions from this large point source have decreased to about 10% of what they were in the 1960s. Lake water quality in Killarney Park has greatly changed in response to reduced emissions, with noticeable declines in sulfate, aluminum and calcium concentrations. Here we apply the dynamic acidification model MAGIC to 3 lakes in Killarney Park. The lakes, which have different buffering capacities and response times, were selected to represent fast, intermediate and slow recovery from acidification. The model was calibrated to match observed data for the lakes and 4 different forecast scenarios for future sulfur deposition reductions were applied. The results indicate that there is still a large potential for improvement in the water quality in Killarney. The recovery time for the different lakes varies greatly. For the lake having the slowest response time several decades are needed for the chemistry to stabilize after implementation of deposition reductions.     

Acid-sensitive waters of the English Lake District: a steady-state model of streamwater chemistry in the upper Duddon catchment

Data on deposition and streamwater chemistry, obtained for the upper catchment of the River Duddon in the 1970s and 1980s, are reviewed. These data, together with soil chemical data, are used to deduce key processes in the deposition-catchment interaction, the analysis being based on current concepts of acidification. The processes are incorporated into a steady-state model that allows streamwater compositions to be calculated. The large baseflow pH range (5-7) of Duddon streams is accounted for in the model by a range of base cation weathering rates. Other processes invoked are evapotranspiration, the uptake of nitrogen by plants, dissolution of Al(OH)(3) in the mineral soil, precipitation of Al(OH)(3) in the baserock zone and in streamwater, Al(3+) hydrolysis, and reactions of the carbonate system. Both cation exchange and sulphate adsorption are ignored, because they are assumed to influence rates-of-change between steady states, but not steady-state water compositions per se. The model can be used to estimate variations in streamwater composition with flow. Model calculations suggest that a 50% decrease in depositional acidifying components (sulphur oxides and NH(4)(+)) would result in increases of up to 1 pH unit in streamwaters with present-day baseflow pH values of 5 or less. It appears that water quality in the upper Duddon is currently more sensitive to inputs of NH(4)(+) than of H(2)SO(4). To improve the reliability of model predictions, more information is required on (a) the pH dependence of base cation weathering, (b) transformations involving nitrogen, (c) aluminium chemistry and (d) partial pressures of CO(2) in soil and baserock.     

Modelling long-term cation supply in acidified forest stands

A dynamic soil chemistry model was used to explain the observed decrease in soil base saturation between 1949 and 1984 at three stands in southern Sweden. The results show that acid deposition has caused soil acidification. The model, SAFE (Soil Acidification in Forest Ecosystems), includes the fundamental physical processes such as leaching and accumulation, and chemical processes such as cation exchange, mineral weathering, nutrient uptake and solute equilibrium reactions. The sources and sinks of base cations in the soil system were quantified, showing that weathering, deposition of base cations and depletion of exchangeable base cations supply cations to the soil solution in similar amounts in the upper 1 m during the acidification phase. This demonstrates that budget studies alone cannot be used to distinguish between long-term capacity to resist acidification, represented by weathering, from short-term buffering caused by cation exchange.